Self-fulfilling Expectations Research Articles

Time Inconsistency of Monetary Policy and Self-Fulfilling Expectations of Monetary Union Exits

Time Inconsistency of Monetary Policy and Self-Fulfilling Expectations of Monetary Union Exits

Political stability and credibility of currency board

Do currency boards offer protection against self-fulling speculative attacks? This paper examines the credibility of currency boards of Argentina, Bulgaria, Estonia, Hong Kong, Latvia, and Lithuania. We employ a Bayesian Markov regime-switching model to analyze the role of economic fundamentals and self-fulfilling expectations in accounting for the credibility of the currency board. We find that the credibility of our sample currency boards is all subject to self-fulfilling runs. We also find that the political stability of adopting economies relates to the credibility of their currency boards and explains a few self-fulfilling runs of their currency boards.

Balanced-budget fiscal rules and money growth pegging

This paper analyzes the interaction between monetary policy rule and distortionary balanced-budget tax policy rules on the stability properties of a one-sector Ramsey economy. The demand of money is motivated by a fractional cash-in-advance constraint on consumption expenditures. The monetary authority pegs the money growth factor while the fiscal authority uses a distortionary income tax or a distortionary consumption tax to balances its budget. Without or with distortionary taxes, we find a unique steady state and characterize its stability. The local stability of the unique steady state, when without distortionary taxes, depends on the interplay between the share of the liquidity constraint and the intertemporal elasticity of substitution of consumption. Regardless of the distortionary tax’s implementation, we demonstrate that the introduction of a balanced-budget rule, could promote or reduce self-fulfilling expectations, which depends on the amplitude of the liquidity constraint and the slope of the tax schedule. Monetary variables tend to reduce the likelihood of local indeterminacy while fiscal instruments tend to increase it when the slope of the tax schedule is positive. Finally, based on plausible empirical values, we present a simple numerical example considering countercyclical tax rates and show that, for both income and consumption tax rates, the introduction of balanced-budget fiscal rules could be stabilizing.

Equilibrium indeterminacy and sunspot tales

We argue that dynamic indeterminacy in structural models can help rationalize statistical regularities regarding higher-order properties of macroeconomic time series. Without departing from the Gaussian rational expectations paradigm, we formally establish that any indeterminate equilibrium model admits a linear recursion with multiplicative noise representation. This allows self-fulfilling expectations (sunspots) to enhance endogenous propagation forces that trigger high-probability extreme changes in model variables, while also inducing time variation in conditional volatilities. As a result, even modest, short-lived exogenous shocks can produce large and persistent macroeconomic effects. Using a workhorse New Keynesian framework, we investigate the ability of such a general mechanism to account for observed fat-tailed behavior and volatility clusters in the inflation series over the Great Inflation period of US macroeconomic history.

Path dependence, self-fulfilling expectations, and carbon lock-in

Growing under the incumbent dirty regime might generate inertia against switching to a clean alternative and lead to the carbon lock-in. I analyze the economics of carbon lock-in through the lens of path dependence and self-fulfilling expectation. The incumbent dirty regime, as the first mover, accumulates an installed base of household users during early lead periods. The installed base generates an effect of path dependence that incentives upcoming households to keep on joining the incumbent dirty regime rather than switch to the clean alternative. Switching could be an expectation-driven selection outcome if expectations are formed about an expanding clean regime which outweighs the path dependence effect. Switching is a welfare-improving outcome if welfare gains by upcoming households switching to the clean regime offset welfare losses by installed-base households locked in the dirty one.

Promoting Platform Takeoff and Self-Fulfilling Expectations: Field Experimental Evidence

A platform might have the potential to bring enormous value to its users. However, without a well-orchestrated launch strategy that coordinates a sufficient number of users onto the platform, this potential will not be realized. The theoretical literature predicts that one approach to coordinating platform take-off is to influence the market’s subjective focal expectations of the future installed base of users. This paper reports on a field experiment investigating the causal role of subjective expectations in the launch of a new platform venture, in which invitations to join a newly launched platform were sent to 16,349 individuals. The invitations included randomized statements regarding the size of the future expected installed base (along with disclosures of the current installed base). I find that simple, subjective, uncommitted, and relatively costless statements broadcasted by the platform with the goal of influencing market expectations were indeed able to influence platform takeoff and overcome an initial chicken-and-egg problem. These broadcasted subjective statements regarding future installed base had a larger influence on adoption rates than did disclosures of the true current installed base during early adoption. However, these subjective statements of expected future installed base ceased to have any effect once the true current installed base grew large. I discuss implications for the promotion, marketing, and evangelism of new platform ventures. This paper was accepted by Duncan Simester, marketing.

Currency stability using blockchain technology

To date, cryptocurrency prices are volatile and many cryptocurrency developers have adopted ad hoc approaches to stabilize their cryptocurrency price. When these currencies are not 100% backed by other valued assets, part of their price volatility may arise from self-fulfilling expectations of a speculative attack (as in Obstfeld (1996)). We show that an exchange rate policy, which is less than 100% backed and dynamically adjusts in response to traders’ conversion demand eliminates speculative attacks while, under some conditions, preserving much of the desired exchange rate stability. This dynamic exchange rate policy admits a great deal of discretion to and requires commitment by the party implementing the policy. We demonstrate how to implement this policy using the Ethereum network—a smart contract blockchain environment—and how this implementation yields commitment to the policy.

Financial development, income and income inequality

The aim of this paper is twofold. Firstly, we present a model in which both income and income inequality are jointly determined in a counter-cyclical manner via self-fulfilling expectation. We argue that multiple equilibria can arise in the presence of inelastic labor demand, a minimum investment requirement, and imperfections in the credit market. In one equilibrium, the market wage and labor income are both low. Young agents who become entrepreneurs work harder and save more than young agents who become depositors. As a result, the equilibrium is characterized by low-income and high-income inequality. In another equilibrium, the market wage and labor income are both high. Young agents supply the same amount of labor and save the same. As a result, the equilibrium is characterized by high-income and low-income inequality. Secondly, we present different dynamic scenarios predicted by the model and analyze the role of self-fulfilling expectations. The paper ends by providing some policy recommendations on how the coordination of agents’ expectations about labor market conditions and how improvements in financial development may affect the long-run income and income inequality.

Understanding the resource curse: A large-scale experiment on corruption in Tanzania

Corruption is considered an important driver of the resource curse in developing countries. Based on a large-scale field experiment in Tanzania, this paper studies how the salience of future natural resource revenues shapes beliefs, attitudes, and behavior. We find some evidence that information about the discovery of natural gas causes people to expect more corruption in the future, but no evidence of the information making people at present more willing to engage in corruption and dishonest behavior or less trusting. The findings do not support the idea of self-fulfilling expectations about future corruption. The paper provides a rich set of results on the determinants of corruption and trust in a development context, which may contribute to a better understanding of the micro-foundations of the resource curse.

Promoting Platform Takeoff and Self-Fulfilling Expectations: Field Experimental Evidence

The theoretical literature on platforms and network effects predicts that the initial growth and takeoff of a platform crucially depends on the market’s expectations of the future installed base. This paper tests this claim, reporting on a field experiment in which invitations to join a newly launched platform were sent to 16,349 individuals and included randomized statements regarding the future expected installed base (along with disclosures of the current installed base). I find evidence consistent with subjective expectations playing a crucial role in shaping early adoption and platform takeoff. Statements regarding expectations of the future installed base more significantly affected adoption than did disclosures of the current installed base. Statements of larger numbers of expected users caused more adoption than did smaller numbers. Statements of a smaller installed base of users (whether current or expected) led to lower demand than did stating nothing at all. The effect of stating subjective expectations by the platform became insignificant once the current installed base grew larger. The response of adoption to expected numbers of users reveals patterns consistent with the long-theorized chicken-and-egg problem and self-fulfilling expectations. The findings have significant implications for the effective promotion, marketing, and “evangelism” of new platform ventures.

The Equilibrium Value of Bitcoin

Can the value of a cryptocurrency be uniquely determined by the fundamentals, such as the rule for money growth implicit in the design of the protocol? To answer this question, we construct a recursive asset-pricing model for a single fiat cryptocurrency, similar to actual Bitcoin. We think of our model as an ideal laboratory, in which equilibria correspond to model solutions that can generate actual data. Our approach stresses the role of the value function as an object of rational choice and hence rests on solid micro-foundations. By imposing enough economically motivated restrictions on that choice, we are able to pin down unique equilibrium and hence demonstrate that the value of our cryptocurrency is immune to self-fulfilling expectations. This result depends only on the design of the cryptocurrency protocol.

What future for history dependence in spatial economics?

History (sometimes) matters for the location and sizes of cities and neighborhood segregation patterns within cities. Together with evidence on rapid neighborhood change and self-fulfilling expectations, this implies that nature might not completely determine the spatial structure of the economy. Instead, the spatial economy might be characterized by multiple equilibria or multiple steady-state equilibrium paths, where history and expectations can play decisive roles. Better evidence on the conditions under which history matters can help improve theory and policy analysis.

Platform Takeoff and Self-Fulfilling Expectations: Field Experimental Evidence

The theoretical literature on platforms and network effects predicts that initial growth of a platform depends on the market’s expectations of future installed base. This paper tests this claim, reporting on a field experiment in which invitations to join a newly launched platform were sent to 16,349 individuals and included randomized statements regarding the future expected installed base (along with disclosures of the current installed base). This study’s results affirm this theory, contribute greater understanding of the nature and importance of expectations, and reveal that market expectations can be influenced.

What to expect when everyone is expecting: Self-fulfilling expectations and asset-pricing puzzles

We study an economy without bubbles in which expectations about future discount rates can become self-fulfilling because asset valuations redistribute wealth across different investor cohorts. For such redistribution to take place, the wealth of arriving and existing cohorts must react differently to discount rates, and in addition only the existing agents are marginal in financial markets. The self-fulfilling nature of discount rate expectations means that the economy can address several well-documented empirical asset-pricing facts (excessive volatility, return predictability, low interest rate level and volatility), while all real quantities (aggregate consumption and dividend growth) are smooth.

Dynamic effects of consumption externalities

This paper examines the dynamic effects of consumption externalities in Bosi and Seegmuller (J Math Econ 46:475–492, 2010). We show that only the patient agent holds the entire capital stock at the steady state, while the impatient agent works to finance his consumption. Our main result states that consumption externalities represent the main mechanism that explains the emergence of endogenous fluctuations due to self-fulfilling expectations. Finally, consumption externalities promote the appearance of deterministic cycles of period two.

Taming Inflation: Drivers and Options

Inflation in the Philippines has accelerated over the course of 2018, with year-on-year headline inflation rising from 2.9 percent in December 2017 to 6.7 percent as of September 2018. Amidst such trends, calls have been sounded for the advanced suspension of scheduled increases in oil levies planned by R.A. 10963 (the TRAIN Law) for 2019 and 2020. In fact, the Duterte administration has reportedly began undertaking steps to suspend the next tranche of increases in fuel excise taxes. This policy note provides an overview of the main factors shaping the country’s present inflation dilemma, and are likely to continue molding the country’s price outlook for the foreseeable future. While we tackle issues related to the TRAIN law and role of self-fulfilling expectations, we focus especially on the drivers and potential responses to rice and food price changes, given the inordinate repercussions of such inflationary dynamics on the poor and near-poor. Overall, we highlight the cost-push dimensions underlying recent inflation trends in the country, in order to emphasize various supply-side responses that are necessary to mitigate the burden of price changes, particularly on poorer households.

Monetary Policy, Self-Fulfilling Expectations and the U.S. Business Cycle

I estimate a medium-scale New-Keynesian model and relax the conventional assumption that the central bank adopted an active monetary policy by pursuing inflation and output stability over the entire post-war period. Even after accounting for a rich structure, I find that monetary policy was passive prior to the Volcker disinflation. Sunspot shocks did not represent quantitatively relevant sources of volatility. By contrast, such passive interest rate policy accommodated fundamental productivity and cost shocks that de-anchored inflation expectations, propagated via self-fulfilling inflation expectations and constituted the primary sources of the run-up in inflation from the 1960s through the late 1970s.

Monetary Policy, Self-Fulfilling Expectations and the U.S. Business Cycle

Monetary Policy, Self-Fulfilling Expectations and the U.S. Business Cycle

On the Purchasing Power of Money in an Exchange Economy

A model is constructed in which completely unbacked fiat money, issued by generic supplier implementing realistically specified monetary policy designed to obey certain sufficient conditions, is endogenously accepted by rational individuals at uniquely determined price level. The model generalizes Lucas (1978) to an economy with frictions and specialization in production, without imposing the cash-in-advance constraint. The uniqueness of equilibrium is the consequence of complete characterization of both the environment, and the equilibrium concept. The results challenge the doctrine that equilibria of monetary economies are inherently indeterminate, and that money can become worthless only due to self-fulfilling expectations. The paper shows that monetary policy canonically features two dimensions, one of which corresponds to nominal interest rate, and the other to continuous helicopter drop of net worth, which in the model takes the form of universal basic income.

Economics of Crisis

According to Semmler (2019), for speculations, currency and financial crises, the economic literature can be divided into three generations of models: (1) Focus on macroeconomic fundamentals (such as differences in economic growth rates, productivity and price levels, short-term interest rates as well as monetary policy actions) causing exchange rate movements. (2) Speculative forces – such as self-fulfilling expectations, which destabilize exchange rates without deterioration of fundamentals. (3) Following the theory of imperfect capital markets, self-fulfilling expectations depend on some fundamentals, for example, the strength and weakness of the balance of sheets of the economic units such as households, firms, banks and governments. The financial instability literature discussed is not formally developed to the point of rigorous testing that is common for the aforementioned models. These are the Minskyan models that rely on empirical and qualitative investigations of financial crises as case studies (e.g. Kindleberger, 1978). Such approaches, unfortunately, receive comparatively little treatment in economic discussions, yet they rely on psychological, behavioral and social factors that are becoming increasingly important in interdisciplinary approaches. In particular, Minsky and Kindleberger emphasize the collective euphoria – emboldened by myopia – that drives the boom, which no participant wants to miss out on. According to Semmler (2019), the offset of a crisis tends to feature the following: (1) A deterioration of the balance sheets of economic units (households, firms, banks, the government and the country) (2) Before the crisis the current account deficit to GDP ratio rises (3) Preceding the currency crisis, the external debt to reserve ratio rises (after the crisis the current account recovers) (4) There is a sudden reversal of capital flows and unexpected depreciation of the currency (5) Domestic interest rates jump up (partly initiated by central bank policies) - subsequently stock prices fall (6) The banking crisis occurs with large loan losses by banks and subsequent contraction of credit (sometimes moderated by a bail out of failing banks by the government) (7) The financial crisis entails a large output loss due to large scale bankruptcies of firms and financial institutions.