Abstract
Do currency boards offer protection against self-fulling speculative attacks? This paper examines the credibility of currency boards of Argentina, Bulgaria, Estonia, Hong Kong, Latvia, and Lithuania. We employ a Bayesian Markov regime-switching model to analyze the role of economic fundamentals and self-fulfilling expectations in accounting for the credibility of the currency board. We find that the credibility of our sample currency boards is all subject to self-fulfilling runs. We also find that the political stability of adopting economies relates to the credibility of their currency boards and explains a few self-fulfilling runs of their currency boards.
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