Self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index Research Articles

Spatial and Temporal Variation of Droughts in the Mongolian Plateau during 1959–2018 Based on the Gridded Self-Calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index

Drought monitoring is challenging, but it is required for improving agricultural production, protecting the ecological environment, and reducing economic losses in drought-prone regions such as the Mongolian Plateau (MP). This study is a systematic analysis of the spatiotemporal changes in the characteristics of drought events (drought duration, severity, intensity, frequency, peak, and starting season) at the sub-regional scale between 1959 and 2018 based on the run theory and using the gridded self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index (scPDSI) dataset. Principal component analysis and Varimax rotation and the Mann–Kendall trend and Sen’s slope were used for the sub-regional division and drought trend analysis, respectively. In addition, wavelet analysis was employed to analyze drought periodicity and determine the influence of large-scale climate indices on regional drought variation. The study results indicate clear differences in the spatial patterns of drought characteristics in the MP. The northern part suffered from droughts with longer duration and higher severity, whereas more drought events with shorter duration and less severity occurred in the southern part. Most of the MP experienced a relatively wet trend in 1996–2018 compared to the period of 1959–1995. The frequency of spring drought events showed an increasing trend in 1996–2018, unlike in 1959–1995. Some drought events simultaneously affected two or several sub-regions. The wavelet analysis results indicated that the drought periodicity in the MP was 10–64 months. The Arctic Oscillation (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) was significantly correlated with drought in the southern (northern) part.

Evaluating the relationships between wildfires and drought using machine learning

In recent years, many destructive wildfires have plagued California. Extreme fire conditions, such as drought, have been taking place simultaneously with many of these wildfires. In this study, the relationship was quantified between the self-calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index (sc-PDSI) and wildfire burn area (BA) in California during the time of 1984–2018, and results indicate that the drought is a significant driver of wildfire BA in California. The methods of wavelet transform coherence, cross wavelet transform, and continuous wavelet transform were used in conjunction with machine learning algorithms to analyse and establish the relationship between sc-PDSI and wildfire BA. This study concludes that there was a statistically significant relationship between wildfire BA and sc-PDSI in 6–8-, 5–6-, and 2–3-year bands during the study period, during which sc-PDSI was one of the main drivers for wildfire BA. In addition, machine learning was utilised in conjunction with the Quantile Regression Model (QRM) in order to quantify the relationship between sc-PDSI and wildfire BA in California. The findings provide a promising direction to improved prediction of wildfire BA which is significant in the aid of damage control of wildfires in California, potentially leading to less burned area, less economic damage, and fewer casualties.

Streamflow Reconstructions Using Tree-Ring Based Paleo Proxies for the Upper Adige River Basin (Italy)

The Adige River Basin (ARB) provides a vital water supply source for varying demands including agriculture (wine production), energy (hydropower) and municipal water supply. Given the importance of this river system, information about past (paleo) drought and pluvial (wet) periods would quantity risk to water managers and planners. Annual streamflow data were obtained for four gauges that were spatially located within the upper ARB. The Old World Drought Atlas (OWDA) provides an annual June–July–August (JJA) self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index (scPDSI) derived from 106 tree-ring chronologies for 5414 grid points across Europe from 0 to 2012 AD. In lieu of tree-ring chronologies, the OWDA dataset was used as a proxy to reconstruct both individual gauge and ARB regional streamflow from 0 to 2012. Principal component analysis (PCA) was applied to the four ARB streamflow gauges to generate one representative vector of regional streamflow. This regional streamflow vector was highly correlated with the four individual gauges, as coefficient of determination (R2) values ranged from 85% to 96%. Prescreening methods included correlating annual streamflow and scPDSI cells (within a 450 km radius) in which significant (p ≤ 0.01 or 99% significance) scPDSI cells were identified. The significant scPDSI cells were then evaluated for temporal stability to ensure practical and reliable reconstructions. Statistically significant and temporally stable scPDSI cells were used as predictors (independent variables) to reconstruct streamflow (predictand or dependent variable) for both individual gauges and at the regional scale. This resulted in highly skillful reconstructions of upper ARB streamflow from 0 to 2012 AD. Multiple drought and pluvial periods were identified in the paleo record that exceed those observed in the recent, historic record. Moreover, this study concurred with streamflow reconstructions in nearby European watersheds.

Comparative evaluation of precipitation-temperature based drought indices (DIs): A case study of Moroccan Lower Sebou basin

Due to the lack of studies on drought in the Lower Sebou basin (LSB), the complexity of drought event and the difference in climate conditions. The identification of the most appropriate drought indices (DIs) to assess drought conditions has become a priority. Therefore, assessing the performance of different drought indices was considered in order to identify the universal drought indices that are well adapted to the LSB. Based on data availability, five DIs were used: Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Standardized Precipitation and Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI), self-calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index (sc-PDSI) and Streamflow Drought Index (SDI). The DIs were calculated on an annual scale using monthly time series of precipitation, temperature and river flow from 1984-2016. Thornthwaite's method was used to calculate potential evapotranspiration (PET). Pearson's correlation (r) were analyzed. Furthermore, five decision criteria namely robustness, traceability, transparency, sophistication and scalability were used to evaluate the performance of these indices. The results proved the fact that SPI is suitable to detect the drought duration and intensity compared to other indices with high correlation coefficients especially in sub humid regions, knowing that it tends to give more results that are humid in stations with semi-arid climates. SPI, SPEI and RDI follow the same trend during the period studied. However, sc-PDSI appears to be the most sensitive to temperature and precipitation by overestimating the drought conditions. Eventually, the results of the performance evaluation criteria revealed that SPEI classified first (total score = 137) among other meteorological drought indices, followed by SPI, RDI and sc-PDSI.

CMIP6 Model-projected Hydroclimatic and Drought Changes and Their Causes in the 21st Century

AbstractDrought is projected to become more severe and widespread as global warming continues in the 21st century, but hydroclimatic changes and their drivers are not well examined in the latest projections from the Phase Six of the Coupled Model Inetercomparison Project (CMIP6). Here, precipitation (P), evapotranspiration (E), soil moisture (SM), and runoff (R) from 25 CMIP6 models, together with self-calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index with Penman-Monteith potential evapotranspiration (scPDSIpm), are analyzed to quantify hydroclimatic and drought changes in the 21st century and the underlying causes. Results confirm consistent drying in these hydroclimatic metrics across most of the Americas (including the Amazon), Europe and the Mediterranean region, southern Africa, and Australia; although the drying magnitude differs, with the drying being more severe and widespread in surface SM than in total SM. Global drought frequency based on surface SM and scPDSIpm increases by ~25%–100% (50%–200%) under the SSP2-4.5 (SSP5-8.5) scenario in the 21st century together with large increases in drought duration and areas, which result from a decrease in the mean and flattening of the probability distribution functions of SM and scPDSIpm; while the R-based drought changes are relatively small. Changes in both P and E contribute to the SM change, whereas scPDSIpm decreases result from ubiquitous PET increases and P decreases over subtropical areas. The R changes are determined primarily by P changes, while the PET change explains most of the E increase. Inter-model spreads in surface SM and R changes are large, leading to large uncertainties in the drought projections.

Amplified signals of soil moisture and evaporative stresses across Poland in the twenty-first century

In Poland, recent summer droughts have had devastating environmental, social, and economic consequences, but the trend of growing season dryness remains unclear. This study focuses on the soil moisture and evaporative stress conditions, analyzed in a multiyear period between 1981 and 2019. Country scale trends in growing season drought severities are assessed using indices derived from the model-based estimates of soil moisture and evapotranspiration. These are compared with indices derived from meteorological variables. Soil droughts are assessed by the Standardized Soil Index (SSI), while the ecological droughts are related to evapotranspiration by the Standardized Evaporative Stress Ratio (SESR). Moreover, the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), and self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index (sc-PDSI) are used for comparison. A Drought-Prone Area (DPA) is delineated based on a criterion defined as simultaneous occurrence of statistically significant drying trends in surface and root zone soil moisture and evaporative stress. It was found that soil and ecological drought severities have remarkably increased in the growing season. This confirms the hypothesis that intensified soil drying is accompanied by intensified water stress imprinted in evapotranspiration. The most severe drought sequence has occurred in recent years, amplified by exceptionally high air temperature, low precipitation, and high deficit in the climatic water balance. The highest correlation is observed between annual growing season drought severities derived from the SSI and SESR; only SPEI approximates an increasing trend, while the SPI and sc-PDSI do not follow such a trajectory. The study shows an almost contiguous spatial pattern of DPA, which takes 42% of the country. One important implication of this study is that soil moisture and evapotranspiration should be considered in assessing drought severity in addition to traditionally used meteorological variables.

Spatial heterogeneity of changes in cropland ecosystem water use efficiency and responses to drought in China.

Understanding cropland ecosystem water use efficiency (eWUE) responses to drought is important for sustainable water resource management and food security. Today in China, the spatiotemporal patterns of eWUE and responses to drought across different cropland classes remain poorly quantified. In this study, we characterized the spatial temporal variability in cropland eWUE and response to drought in China from 1982 to 2017 using the satellite-retrieved evapotranspiration (ET), gross primary production (GPP), and self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index (scPDSI), in conjunction with the Global Food Security-support Analysis Data product for Crop Dominance (GFSAD1KCD) data. Results indicated that (1) mean annual cropland eWUE had a spatial range from 0 to 9.94 g C kg-1 H2O, with higher values (2.06 g C kg-1 H2O) in class 4 (rainfed: wheat, rice, and soybeans dominant), whereas the lowest eWUE (1.58 g C kg-1 H2O) occurred in class 2 (irrigated mixed crop 1: wheat, rice, barley, and soybeans). (2) Annual eWUE, GPP, and ET values for croplands in China increased significantly between 1982 and 2017. Class 1 (irrigated wheat and rice) had the highest trend of 0.011 g C kg-1 H2O yr-1, and class 6 (rainfed: corn and soybeans) had the lowest of 0.0007 g C kg-1 H2O yr-1. Apart from class 4, annual GPP and ET were enhanced in most cropland classes from 1982 to 2017 (p<0.01). (3) Rainfed croplands generally had higher eWUE, GPP, and ET values than irrigated croplands. Except for rainfed cropland eWUE, all other cropland variables increased significantly (p<0.001) from 1982 to 2017. (4) Correlation analysis found that the 19.66% (15.62%) of cropland had significant negative (positive) correlations between eWUE and current-year scPDSI. The legacy effects of drought on cropland eWUE indicated that previous and current-year drought impacts on cropland eWUE were in the same direction. Our results provide insights into variability in cropland eWUE and its response to drought in China, where there is a growing demand for agricultural water resource management.

Moisture variations during the first millennium CE and their linkage with social developments along the Silk Road in northwestern China

Moisture conditions, especially those that occur as multi-decadal anomalies, have profound impacts on society, especially in arid and semi-arid regions. However, the lack of high-resolution climate data for the first millennium CE greatly limits our understanding of how moisture variations have influenced history. Here, we present an 1882-year (134–2015 CE) tree-ring chronology developed from Qilian juniper (Juniperus przewalskii Kom.) growing in the western Qilian Mountains, northwest China. The tree-ring index correlates significantly with the May–June self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index (sc-PDSI) and can be used to reconstruct May–June moisture variations since 241 CE. The reconstruction reflects moisture conditions at the annual to multi-decadal time scales over the past two millennia. During the period from the third to eighth centuries, there were prominent interdecadal fluctuations, with the third century and the late fifth century being the wettest and driest periods during the reconstruction, respectively. The transition from the wet third century to the dry fifth century corresponded with key events in Chinese history, namely the demise of the Western Jin Dynasty and the chaotic Southern and Northern Dynasties. Thus, our reconstruction provides new evidence for the potential linkage between abnormal climate conditions and social changes in ancient times.

Drought Assessment in the São Francisco River Basin Using Satellite-Based and Ground-Based Indices

The São Francisco River Basin (SFRB) plays a key role for the agricultural and hydropower sectors in Northeast Brazil (NEB). Historically, in the low part of the SFRB, people have to cope with strong periods of drought. However, there are incipient signs of increasing drought conditions in the upper and middle parts of the SFRB, where its main reservoirs (i.e., Três Marias, Sobradinho, and Luiz Gonzaga) and croplands are located. Therefore, the assessment of the impacts of extreme drought events in the SFRB is of vital importance to develop appropriate drought mitigation strategies. These events are characterized by widespread and persistent dry conditions with long-term impacts on water resources and rain-fed agriculture. The purpose of this study is to provide a comprehensive evaluation of extreme drought events in terms of occurrence, persistence, spatial extent, severity, and impacts on streamflow and soil moisture over different time windows between 1980 and 2020. The Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and Standardized Streamflow Index (SSI) at 3- and 12-month time scales derived from ground data were used as benchmark drought indices. The self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index (scPDSI) and the Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity-based Soil Water Deficit Index (SWDIS) were used to assess the agricultural drought. The Water Storage Deficit Index (WSDI) and the Groundwater Drought Index (GGDI) both derived from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) were used to assess the hydrological drought. The SWDISa and WSDI showed the best performance in assessing agricultural and hydrological droughts across the whole SFRB. A drying trend at an annual time scale in the middle and south regions of the SFRB was evidenced. An expansion of the area under drought conditions was observed only during the southern hemisphere winter months (i.e., JJA). A marked depletion of groundwater levels concurrent with an increase in soil moisture content was observed during the most severe drought conditions, indicating an intensification of groundwater abstraction for irrigation. These results could be useful to guide social, economic, and water resource policy decision-making processes.

Changing hydroclimate dynamics and the 19th to 20th century wetting trend in the English Channel region of northwest Europe

Northwestern Europe has experienced a trend of increasingly wet winters over the past 150 years, with few explanations for what may have driven this hydroclimatic change. Here we use the Old World Drought Atlas (OWDA), a tree-ring based reconstruction of the self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index (scPDSI), to examine this wetting trend and place it in a longer hydroclimatic context. We find that scPDSI variability in northwestern Europe is strongly correlated with the leading mode of the OWDA during the last millennium (1000–2012). This leading mode, here named the ‘English Channel’ (EC) mode, has pronounced variability on interannual to centennial timescales and has an expression in scPDSI similar to that of the East Atlantic teleconnection pattern. A shift in the EC mode from a prolonged negative phase to more neutral conditions during the 19th and 20th centuries is associated with the wetting trend over its area of influence in England, Wales, and much of northern continental Europe. The EC mode is the dominant scPDSI mode from approximately 1000–1850, after which its dominance waned in favor of the secondary ‘North–South’ (NS) mode, which has an expression in scPDSI similar to that of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). We examine the dynamical nature of both of these modes and how they vary on interannual to centennial timescales. Our results provide insight into the nature of hydroclimate variability in Europe before the widespread availability of instrumental observations.

Beef Cattle Price and Production Patterns in Relation to Drought in New Mexico

Understanding the fluctuations in monthly and annual cattle prices plays a key role in supporting the sustainability of New Mexico’s (NM’s), United States (US), beef cattle industry under variable environmental conditions. The goal of this study was to provide an improved understanding of NM’s beef cattle production systems in terms of prices and production patterns and related drought impacts. The main objectives were to evaluate monthly and annual prices patterns for heifers and steers (cattle) and calves, the relationships between annual cattle prices and inventory and drought, and the effects of drought on ranch net return. Drought events were assessed using the Self-Calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index (SC-PDSI). The generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity models and their exponential version were used to investigate the effects of drought and cattle supply on cattle prices, and the effects of drought on ranch net return. Spectral analysis and timeseries decomposition were used to identify the cycles of the annual price and numbers of cattle and calf. Coherence analysis was used to examine the relationships between inventory of cattle classes and drought. The results indicated that prices of cattle and calf usually drop in October through January and peak in April. The inventory of replacement heifers and steers were negatively related to cattle prices, while the inventory of calves was positively related to calf prices. Cattle and calf prices showed negative linear relationships with droughts. Annual cattle and calf prices showed 6- and 10-year cycles, while their inventory showed 6- and 8- year cycles, respectively. Our finding suggested that a rancher can still earn some net return when drought falls within the “Abnormally Dry” category of the US Drought Monitor. However, a rancher with a large herd or ranch size can endure drought more than a rancher with a medium herd or ranch size and reach the breakeven point. Specifically, the net return ($/head) is expected to increase (or decrease) by $62.29, $60.51, and $64.07 per head if the SC-PDSI increase (or decrease) by one unit in all large and medium ranch sizes, respectively. The effects of drought on ranch net return that we identified need further improvements using additional data. Due to NM’s location and the diversity of its rangeland, understanding the response of cattle prices to drought and beef cattle supply based on these findings can be used to help NM’s ranchers and those in other similar regions make informed ranch management decisions. These findings can also support the development of improved understanding of beef cattle production systems regionally.

Analysis of the Influencing Factors of Drought Events Based on GRACE Data under Different Climatic Conditions: A Case Study in Mainland China

The occurrence of droughts has become more frequent, and their intensity has increased in mainland China. With the aim of better understanding the influence of climate background on drought events in this region, we analyzed the role of the drought-related factors and extreme climate in the formation of droughts by investigating the relationship between the drought severity index (denoted as GRACE-DSI) based on the terrestrial water storage changes (TWSCs) derived from Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) time-variable gravity fields and drought-related factors/extreme climate. The results show that GRACE-DSI was consistent with the self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index in mainland China, especially for the subtropical monsoon climate, with a correlation of 0.72. Precipitation (PPT) and evapotranspiration (ET) are the main factors causing drought events. However, they play different roles under different climate settings. The regions under temperate monsoon climate and subtropical monsoon climate were more impacted by PPT, while ET played a leading role in the regions under temperate continental climate and plateau mountain climate. Moreover, El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) events mainly caused abnormalities in PPT and ET by affecting the strength of monsoons (East Asian and Indian monsoon) and regional highs (Subtropical High, Siberian High, Central Asian High, etc.). As a result, the various affected regions were prone to droughts during ENSO or NAO events, which disturbed the normal operation of atmospheric circulation in different ways. The results of this study are valuable in the efforts to understand the formation mechanism of drought events in mainland China.

Use of a multiscalar GRACE-based standardized terrestrial water storage index for assessing global hydrological droughts

A multiscalar standardized terrestrial water storage index (STI) is proposed to assess global hydrological droughts in this study. STI is defined as the standardized statistical deviation of terrestrial water storage (TWS) measured by GRACE to the climatology at multiple time scales. Because of the statistical nature of its definition, the proposed index is comparable to other standardized drought indices in different time scales, e.g., standardized precipitation index (SPI), standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) across different regions at multiple time scales. Our comparisons of STI with multiscalar drought indices (i.e. SPI and SPEI) and uni-scalar indices (i.e. self-calibrating palmer drought severity index [scPDSI], standardized soil moisture index [SM-Z], standardized runoff index [R-Z], and GRACE-based drought severity index [DSI]) show that STI can capture drought events with less noise than other indicators in persistent drought events. As a hydrological drought index based on TWS (which includes groundwater, soil moisture, etc.), STI at short-term time scales (e.g. 3 and 6 months) have higher correlations (mostly > 0.7) with SPI/SPEI at long-term scales (e.g. 18 and 24 months). Since the TWS measured by GRACE incorporates the impacts of the accumulated changes in meteorological variables, hydrological processes, and human activities as well as the advantage of multiscale, STI better represents vegetation growth reflected by Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) than uni-scalar drought indices including the GRACE-based DSI, suggesting STI is a robust indicator for hydrological droughts and vegetation changes.

Appraising standardized moisture anomaly index (SZI) in drought projection across China under CMIP6 forcing scenarios

Study regionSeven climatic regions of China. Study focusThis study compared and assessed the Standardized Moisture Anomaly Index (SZI), Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), and self-calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index (scPDSI) over seven climatic regions of China based on simulations from General Circulation Models (GCM) participated in the 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) under climate change. Then, SZI was calculated using downscaled and multi-model ensemble (MME) simulations for drought projection, and drought characteristics were determined based on SZI from 1985 to 2100. New hydrological insights for the regionResults showed that SZI was more robust and performed better in identifying and projecting multi-scalar and multi-category drought, especially in comprehensive drought identification, in different climatic regions under global warming. The performance of scPDSI in identifying multi-category drought decreased with the increase of time scales beyond 12 months. The SZI series calculated with downscaled and MME simulations showed that most parts of China (arid, semi-arid, and semi-humid regions) were projected to become wetter over the 21st century, however, drought is expected to be more widespread in southern humid regions of China under a warmer climate in the future. The results provide a new choice for future drought projection and valuable information for regional drought mitigation under climate change.

Climate-growth pattern of Pinus tabulaeformis plantations and their resilience to drought events in the Loess Plateau

Large-scale plantations were established under the Grain for Green project to improve the ecological environment of the Loess Plateau (LP) of China. However, there are increasing concerns regarding the sustainability of plantation ecosystems under climate change. In this study, we developed tree-ring width chronologies of Pinus tabulaeformis at seven sites along a precipitation gradient from south to north in the LP. Correlation analysis was performed to investigate the climate (temperature, precipitation, self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index)-growth relationship. Moreover, the tree resilience components were computed to study the adaptability of trees to extreme drought during the growth periods. The results showed that the differences in radial growth to climate change along the precipitation gradient and the cluster analysis of the tree ring width index (RWI)-scPDSI correlation coefficient illustrated that the climate-growth response pattern along the LP was divided into southern and northern regions. Tree growth in the southern region is limited by humid environment conditions, while tree growth in the early and middle growing seasons of the northern region is limited by warming-induced drought. As the temperature rising over the past fifty years, the growth was found to be negatively correlated with temperature, especially in the spring and autumn seasons of the northern region. In contrast, the effect of precipitation on tree growth became more negative in the southern region, but more positive in the middle and late growing seasons of the northern region. Moreover, tree resilience analysis showed that the high resistance of Pinus tabulaeformis in the southern region, whereas high recovery in the northern region. It was difficult for the growth of Pinus tabulaeformis to recover from drought in the southern region, but stronger adaptability to extreme drought events in the northern region. Our study illustrated that there are different climate response patterns and limiting factors of Pinus tabulaeformis along the precipitation gradient in the LP; thus, different ecological restoration and regional forestry management strategies should be initiated in the LP.

Reconstructing Terrestrial Water Storage Anomalies Using Satellite Data to Evaluate Water Resource Shortages from 1980 to 2016 in the Inland Yongding River Basin, China

Water resources in the Yongding River basin (YRB) are one of the important fundamental conditions in supporting regional water conservation and ecological development. However, the historical changes in water resources under recent human activities remain unknown due to very limited observation data. In this study, terrestrial water storage anomalies (TWSA) as well as multiple precipitation and actual evapotranspiration products from satellites were collected, and the accuracy of the data was verified by observed data or pairwise comparisons. The TWSA during 1980-2016 was reconstructed by using the water balance method, and the reconstructed TWSA was verified using GRACE-observed TWSA, the average depth to groundwater in the Beijing Plain from historical document records and the observed runoff from Guanting Reservoir. The reconstructed TWSA data indicated that the significant decrease occurred during 2000–2016 and the average rate of decreasing trend was -11 mm/year, which may have been caused by a decrease in groundwater storage due to agricultural development. However, the reconstructed TWSA decreased slightly during 1980-1999. The establishment of the water storage deficit index (WSDI) showed that there was no drought or mild drought during 1980-1999; however, the water resource shortage during 2000-2016 was more serious due to groundwater storage decreases caused by agricultural development. The WSDI was verified by using the commonly used self-calibrated Palmer drought severity index. The findings are valuable for sustainable water resource management in the YRB.

Moisture variation inferred from tree rings in north central China and its links with the remote oceans

In this study we presented a composite standard chronology, spanning 1635–2018 to reconstruct May–July moisture variation in north central China. Our reconstruction revealed four severe dry epochs and five pronounced wet epochs. Additionally, spatial correlation analysis of our reconstruction with the actual self-calibrating Palmer drought severity index showed that our reconstruction was representative of large-scale May–July moisture changes. Both the severe dry and pronounced wet epochs showed one-to-one correspondence with other reconstructions nearby during their common periods, which demonstrated the reliability of our reconstruction backwards in time. Spectral analysis showed that significant spectral peaks were found at 2.1–3.8 years, which fell within the overall bandwidth of the El Niño-Southern Oscillations (ENSO). The spatial correlation patterns between our reconstruction and sea surface temperature (SST) in the equatorial eastern Pacific further confirmed the link between regional moisture and ENSO, with warm-phase ENSO resulting in low moisture and vice-versa. However, this link was time-dependent during the past four centuries, and was modulated by different phases of SST in the tropical Indian Ocean. Additionally, significant peaks at 24.9–46.5 years and spatial correlation patterns indicated that the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation may be the possible forcing factors of regional moisture at lower frequencies.

A multi-index evaluation of changes in compound dry and hot events of global maize areas

The nonexistence of universal drought indicators may lead to uncertainties in the variability of drought, leading to discrepancies in the frequency change in compound dry and hot events (CDHEs) in different regions across the globe. Understanding the impact of the selection of drought indicators on the variability of CDHEs is important for assessing their risks and pursuing mitigation measures. However, quantitative assessments of differences in CDHEs variabilities based on different drought indicators have been lacking. In this study, we evaluate changes in CDHEs based on three different drought indices, including self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index (scPDSI), Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), and Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), and Standardized Temperature Index (STI) as the hot indicator over global maize-producing areas. Generally, the compound dry and hot event defined by SPEI & STI shows a relatively higher magnitude of increase in the frequency and spatial extent compared with that defined by SPI & STI and scPDSI & STI from 1949–1980 to 1981–2012 over most regions. For the top ten maize-producing countries, the frequency of different countries affected by CDHEs at the same time also increases from 1949–1980 to 1981–2012 for these three types of compound events. Consistent patterns are shown based on different thresholds and different base periods in defining compound events. Results from this study could help understand compound event variations and provide useful insights for agricultural management under global warming.

Influence of May–June frontal precipitation on coherent moisture pattern in east-central China since 1793 based on tree-ring data

The short and scare record limits to understand the history of the hydroclimate change in east-central China. In this study, we developed a 225-year tree-ring width chronology (STD) for Chinese pine originating from the Shiren Mountain in Henan Province, east-central China. We analysed the correlation between the STD and different climatic factors and then reconstructed the May–June moisture variation, which is one of the longest moisture variation reconstruction based on tree-ring width in this region. Further, the results of the spatial analysis between our reconstruction and actual moisture variation revealed that our reconstruction is representative of large-scale May–June self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index (scPDSI) in east-central China. Additionally, the reconstruction showed five relatively dry and five relatively wet epochs over the past 225 years. It also showed that the moisture variation in the study area is similar to those corresponding to other nearby sites and could be validated by historical documents; these findings demonstrate the reliability of our reconstruction back in time. Furthermore, we detected the reason for the coherent May–June moisture change in east-central China. It showed that the actual scPDSI showed significantly positive correlations with concurrent precipitation. Additionally, regression analyses showed that precipitation is largely determined by the frontal system, which is also responsible for the coherent May–June moisture pattern observed in east-central China. In addition, the result of spectral analysis and correlation patterns of the reconstructed scPDSI with global sea surface temperatures indicated that the El Niño-Southern Oscillations might be the forcing mechanism for regional moisture variability.

A Tree-Ring-Based Assessment of Pinus armandii Adaptability to Climate Using Two Statistical Methods in Mt. Yao, Central China during 1961–2016

Assessing the characteristics and limiting factors of tree growth is of practical significance for environmental studies and climatic reconstruction, especially in climate transition zones. In this study, four sites of Pinus armandii Franeh are investigated to understand regional climate-tree growth response in Mt. Yao, central China. Based on the high similarity of four residual chronologies and high correlations between chronologies and climatic factors, we analyzed the correlations of regional residual chronology with monthly climatic factors and the self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index (scPDSI) from 1961–2016. The results indicate that the hydrothermal combination of prior August and current May and the scPDSI in May are main limiting factors of regional tree growth in Mt. Yao. The results of stepwise regression models also show that temperature and scPDSI in May are the main limiting factors of tree growth, but the limiting effect of scPDSI is more than temperature in this month. Through the analysis of the number of tree growth years corresponding to high temperature and high scPDSI, it was further confirmed that scPDSI in May is the main limiting factor on the growth of P. armandii in Mt. Yao. However, the influence of scPDSI in May has weakened, while temperature in May has increasingly significant influence on tree growth. The above findings will help improve our understanding of forest dynamics in central China under global climate change.