Seismogenic Thickness Research Articles

New Empirical Source-Scaling Laws for Crustal Earthquakes Incorporating Fault Dip and Seismogenic-Thickness Effects

Abstract New global source-scaling relations for the aspect ratio and rupture area for crustal earthquakes that include the width-limited effect and a possible free-surface effect are derived using a global dataset of finite-fault rupture models. In contrast to the commonly used scaling relations between moment magnitude (M), fault length (L), width (W), and area, we built self-consistent scaling relations by relating M to the aspect ratio (L/W) and to the fault area to model the change in the aspect ratio once the rupture width reaches the down-dip width limit of the fault. The width-limited effect of large-magnitude earthquakes depends on the fault dip and a regional term for the seismogenic thickness. The magnitude scaling of the aspect ratio includes a break in the magnitude scaling that is dip angle dependent. This dip angle-dependent magnitude scaling in the magnitude–area relation is modeled by a trilinear relation incorporating a dip-related transition range. The effect of the free surface was observed using a normalized depth term and parameterizing the source by the depth of the top of the fault rupture; it is more apparent in the area scaling relation. The scaling differences are related to the fault geometry, not to the rake angle, as commonly assumed. Finally, the corresponding L and W scaling relations obtained by converting the area and aspect ratio models to L and W models not only show good agreement with the previous regional scaling laws on average but also provide better fault-specific application due to the inclusion of a fault-specific dip angle and seismogenic thickness.

Seismogenic depth and seismic coupling estimation in the transition zone between Alps, Dinarides and Pannonian Basin for the new Slovenian seismic hazard model

Abstract. Seismogenic depth and seismic coupling are important inputs into seismic hazard estimates. Although the importance of seismic coupling is often overlooked, it significantly impacts seismic hazard results. We present an estimation of upper and lower seismogenic depth and expected hypocentral depth and seismic coupling in the transition zone between the Alps, Dinarides and Pannonian Basin, characterized by a complex deformation pattern, highly variable crustal thickness, and moderate seismic hazard, supporting the development of the 2021 seismic hazard model of Slovenia. The hazard model was based on three seismic source models: area source model, fault source model and smoothed seismicity (point) source model. We estimated the lower seismogenic depth using seismological and geological data and compared them. The seismological estimate was based on two regional earthquake catalogues prepared for this study. In the area source model, estimates of lower seismogenic depth from seismological data are deeper or equal to the ones derived from geological data, except in one case. In the fault source model, we analysed each fault individually and chose seismological lower depth estimates in 12 among 89 faults as more representative. The seismogenic thickness for each individual fault source was determined for seismic coupling determination. The seismic coupling was assessed by two approaches, i.e. we chose the most trusted value from the literature, and the value determined for each fault individually by using the approach based on the updated regional fault and earthquake data sets. The final estimate of seismic coupling ranges from 0.77 to 0.38. We compared the tectonic moment rate based on long-term slip rate using different values of seismic coupling with the seismic moment rate obtained from the earthquake catalogue. The analysis is done for the whole area, as well as for the individual area zones. The analysis of N–S components of estimated slip for the largest faults in the area of west Slovenia shows that the regional geological and geodetic shortening rates are comparable. The total activity rate of three global seismic source models is compared, which gives up to a 10 % difference. Our results contribute to a better understanding of the seismic activity in the region. The presented approach for seismic coupling estimation can be applied in cases where the total slip rate is given instead of its seismic part and can be used at regional or national level. The approach is also suitable for the cross-border harmonization of the European seismic hazard modelling data.

Time-Independent Grid-Based Forecast Model for M ≥6.0 Earthquakes in Southeastern Tibetan Plateau Using GNSS Strain Rates and Seismicity

ABSTRACT Earthquake forecasting models play a vital role in earthquake occurrence assessment. Despite improved availability of seismic and geodetic data and processing techniques to produce high-resolution catalogs and deformation history, the implementation of earthquake forecasting models with seismic and geodetic data remains a challenge. In this study, we utilize seismicity and Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) data to propose time-independent grid-based regional earthquake likelihood models for southeastern Tibetan plateau (RELM-TibetSE). First, we solve the GNSS velocity field and strain rates from 1999 to 2017, deriving geodetic moment rates and introducing empirical correction coefficients to balance them with historical seismic moment rate. Subsequently, we employ a truncated Gutenberg–Richter law and Poisson process to calculate time-independent probabilities for M ≥ 6 earthquakes in 0.2° × 0.2° cells. The grid-based forecasting models indicate that the 30-year probability for M ≥ 6 earthquakes exceeds 1% in more than one-third of the entire study area, highlighting prominently higher earthquake occurrence in these regions. Probability distribution exhibits significant spatial variations. Finally, the predictive performance of the forecasting models is validated based on historical seismicity. The validation indicates that all RELM-TibetSE exhibit good predictive capability relative to a spatially uniform model. The RELM-TibetSE incorporating principal strain rates outperforms those involving maximum shear strain rate in forecasting seismicity. And the differences in forecasting performance between the RELM-TibetSE accounting for spatially varied seismogenic thickness and rigidity and those with uniform thickness and rigidity are not significant. The forecasting models also exhibit better predictive performance for seismic source areas than for epicenters. Moreover, the optimal model highlights zones with higher earthquake occurrence, including the zones about 50 km wide across the Ninglang fault, the zones across the southwestern segment of the Lijiang–Xiaojinhe fault, the China–Myanmar borderland north of the Nantinghe fault, and so on. Therefore, it is justified to conduct multidisciplinary rigorous observations to capture the potential nucleation process of future large earthquakes in these zones.

Spatial variations of effective elastic thickness of Eastern Arabia: Implications for lithospheric weakening in the Oman-UAE mountain belt

The continental lithosphere of the Arabian Plate has evolved through a long and complex tectonic history and comprises major geological features such as an ophiolite complex, Cenozoic basalt extrusion, and Proterozoic basement outcrops. In eastern Arabia, an NW-SE to N-S oriented orogenic belt is present in Oman and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). The mountain belt formed due to the Late Cretaceous obduction of the Semail ophiolite, where a thick slab of oceanic crust and upper mantle was emplaced on the rifted Arabian continental margin. However, the mechanical strength of the lithosphere over the entire region is poorly known. In this study, we employ Bouguer gravity anomaly and topographic data, along with data on crustal properties obtained from teleseismic analyses, to assess the spatial variations in the effective elastic thickness (Te) of the eastern Arabian Plate. The joint inversion of coherence and admittance yielded Te values ranging from 10 to 50 km and an initial subsurface-to-surface load ratio (F) of 0.1 to 0.8. Te values in the southern part of eastern Arabia are low (< 20 km), while the northeastern regions of Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar exhibit intermediate to high Te values ranging from 30 to 45 km. The Oman-UAE mountain belt is associated with an intermediate Te of 30 km in the northern segment and a low Te of 20 km in the southern segment. The reduction in Te observed along the strike of the mountain belt suggests weakening of the lithosphere during the obduction of the Semail ophiolite. Te correlates well with both the seismic thickness of the lithosphere (Ts) and the decrease in shear-wave velocity at a depth of 150 km. The seismogenic thickness in eastern Arabia, however, is about 15 km, which is significantly less than Te and shows that both the crust and upper mantle contribute to the strength of the continental lithosphere. The Ts/Te ratio ranges from 1 to 9, with a maximum peak at 3–5, which is similar to the results observed for the oceanic lithosphere.

Combining Seismotectonic and Catalog-Based 3D Models for Advanced Smoothed Seismicity Computations

Abstract The new generation seismic hazard maps use 3D seismotectonic fault models, which are more consistent with the actual nature of faults, whereas the classical models based on earthquake catalogs only utilize a 2D representation of the seismicity. Although the former provides more reliable information on seismogenic structures, the latter can deliver trustworthy seismicity rates easily. Therefore, it is necessary to combine both the approaches to create a high-quality seismic hazard assessment model. This study proposes an innovative approach using smoothed seismicity methods that can be advantageous in all contexts with available 3D fault models and high-quality seismic catalogs. We applied our method on the Adriatic Basal Thrust (ABT) in eastern central Italy—a lithospheric-scale active contractional structure with a well-constrained 3D geometric–kinematic reconstruction and a related high-quality catalog. Our new 3D algorithm was applied to smooth the ABT seismicity on the grid, resulting in a 3D earthquake rate model that also provides rupture parameters such as strike, dip, rake, and seismogenic thickness. Our approach is particularly useful for complex seismotectonic settings, such as in cases of lithospheric shear zones, subduction planes, and overlapping multidepth seismogenic volumes.

Using InSight Data to Calibrate Seismicity From Remote Observations of Surface Faulting

AbstractWe use a scaling relationship between fault length and scalar moment to predict seismicity from the Cerberus Fossae graben using shear modulus and fault lengths. Cerberus Fossae is 20–40° (1,200–2,300 km) from the InSight lander and matches the location of 21 recorded seismic events withMw ≥ 3. These unique seismic observations make an ideal laboratory to test our method of predicting seismicity on another planet using surface fault observations. Terrestrial faults have observed patterns of rupture depth distributions and segmentation. We use these patterns and magnitudes of detected marsquakes to predict moment release of events in Cerberus Fossae over a range of plausible Martian rupture vertical slip extents (VSEs) of 2, 20, and 40 km, which are rooted in estimates of crustal thickness, elastic thickness, and seismicity depth. We sum individual events for each case to determine cumulative moment release and use deformation duration to determine annual moment release. Predicted seismicity rates are dependent on the duration of deformation, which in this case is well constrained to 2–10 Ma. We compare our results to events recorded at Cerberus Fossae by InSight and find that seismicity rates for the cases with a 40 km maximum VSE or no limit on VSE are within an order of magnitude of observed seismicity. Faults with maximum VSEs of 2 km best match observed magnitudes. Our approach, using only observed fault lengths, segmentation, seismogenic thickness estimates, and deformation duration, produces seismicity estimates that are as accurate as methods that take rupture offset into account.

The 2020 Mw 6.5 Monte Cristo Range, Nevada, Earthquake: Anatomy of a Crossing-Fault Rupture through a Region of Highly Distributed Deformation

ABSTRACT The 15 May 2020 Mw 6.5 Monte Cristo Range earthquake (MCRE) in Nevada, United States, is the largest instrumental event in the Mina deflection—a zone of east-trending left-lateral faults accommodating a right step between northwest-trending right-lateral faults of the Walker Lane. The MCRE ruptured a highly distributed faulting area with muted geomorphic expressions, motivating us to characterize the behavior of an earthquake on a structurally immature fault system. Inverse modeling of Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) and Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) displacements reveals left-lateral slip on an east-striking, eastern fault and left-lateral–normal slip on an east-northeast-striking, western fault. Unusually, the two faults cross one another and ruptured together in the mainshock. The maximum slip of 1 m occurs at 8–10 km depth, but less than 0.1 m of slip reaches the surficial model fault patches, yielding a pronounced shallow slip deficit (SSD) of 91%. Relocated hypocenters indicate that the mainshock initiated at 9 km depth and that aftershocks span depths of 1–11 km, constraining the local seismogenic thickness. Our new field observations of fracturing and pebble-clearing in the western MCRE characterize a third, shorter, northern fault that is at the resolution limit of the InSAR–GNSS modeling. The segmented and intersecting fault geometry, off-fault aftershocks with variable mechanisms, distributed surface fractures, limited long-term geomorphic offsets, and a 600–700 m (cumulative) bedrock offset are all characteristic of a structurally immature fault system. However, the large SSD is not unusual for an earthquake of this magnitude, and a larger compilation of InSAR models (28 Mw≥6.4 strike-slip events) shows that SSDs correlate with magnitude rather than structural maturity. This study demonstrates the importance of integrating geodesy, seismology, and field observations to capture the full complexity of large earthquakes, and further suggests that seismic hazard assessments in shattered crustal regions consider the potential for multi- and cross-fault rupture.

An updated view of the Italian seismicity from probabilistic location in 3D velocity models: The 1981–2018 Italian catalog of absolute earthquake locations (CLASS)

We have built a complete catalog of three-dimensional (3D) hypocenter locations of earthquakes recorded in Italy from 1981 to 2018. Our catalog includes more than 420,000 events relocated by inverting a newly integrated dataset of ∼5.0 million P and ∼ 3.5 million S wave arrival times recorded by the Italian National Seismic Network and other permanent seismological networks operating in Italy. Available magnitudes are associated with earthquake locations from the most recent datasets and bulletins of Italian seismicity. Earthquakes are located in an updated 3D tomographic model of Italy obtained by including the Moho discontinuity and the seismic velocities of the Ionian subduction zone. We used a probabilistic, non-linear earthquake location code which provides complete information of the hypocenter solution uncertainties. Quality estimators of earthquake locations are analyzed a posteriori with an original criterion for a quantitative classification of the results, allowing users to select seismic events belonging to consistent quality classes and giving a more controlled image of the Italian instrumental seismicity for tectonic and geodynamical studies. The resulting catalog gives a new, coherent view of the spatial and temporal distribution of Italian seismicity. By selecting well constrained located events we construct the new Italian Crustal Seismogenic Layer (CSL) with a good spatial resolution, allowing us to show a comparison between seismogenic thicknesses and Moho geometry distribution. We finally present some examples of seismicity distribution in selected areas of Italy at regional and local scale relating the relocated events of our catalog with available multidisciplinary information from geology, geochemistry, geodynamical models, and historical seismicity.

Time-independent forecast model for large crustal earthquakes in southwest Japan using GNSS data

In this study, we developed a regional likelihood model for crustal earthquakes using geodetic strain-rate data from southwest Japan. First, the smoothed strain-rate distributions were estimated from continuous Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) measurements. Second, we removed the elastic strain rate attributed to interplate coupling on the subducting plate boundary, including the observed strain rate, under the assumption that it is not attributed to permanent loading on crustal faults. We then converted the geodetic strain rates to seismic moment rates and calculated the 30-year probability for M ≥ 6 earthquakes in 0.2 × 0.2° cells, using a truncated Gutenberg–Richter law and time-independent Poisson process. Likelihood models developed using different conversion equations, seismogenic thicknesses, and rigidities were validated using the epicenters and moment distribution of historical earthquakes. The average seismic moment rate of crustal earthquakes recorded during 1586–2020 was only 13–20% of the seismic moment rate converted from the geodetic data, which suggests that the observed geodetic strain rate includes considerable inelastic strain. Therefore, we introduced an empirical coefficient to calibrate the moment rate converted from geodetic data with the moment rate of the earthquakes. Several statistical scores and the Molchan diagram showed all models could predict real earthquakes better than the reference model, in which earthquakes occur uniformly in space. Models using principal horizontal strain rates exhibited better predictive skill than those using the maximum horizontal shear strain rate. There were no significant differences in predictive skill between uniform and variable distributions for seismogenic thickness and rigidity. The preferred models suggested high 30-year probability in the Niigata–Kobe Tectonic Zone and central Kyushu, exceeding 1% in more than half of the analyzed region. The model predictive skill was also verified by a prospective test using earthquakes recorded during 2010–2020. This study suggests that the proposed forecast model based on geodetic data can improve the regional likelihood model for crustal earthquakes in Japan in combination with other forecast models based on active faults and seismicity.Graphical

Subduction earthquakes controlled by incoming plate geometry: The 2020 M > 7.5 Shumagin, Alaska, earthquake doublet

In 2020, an earthquake doublet, a M7.8 on July 22nd and a M7.6 on October 19th, struck the Alaska-Aleutian subduction zone beneath the Shumagin Islands. This is the first documented earthquake doublet involving a megathrust event and a strike-slip event. The first event partially ruptured a seismic gap, which has not hosted large earthquakes since 1917, and the second event was unusual as it broke a trench-perpendicular fault within the incoming oceanic slab. We used an improved Bayesian geodetic inversion method to estimate the fault slip distributions of the major earthquakes using Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) wrapped phase and Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) offsets data. The geodetic inversions reveal that the Shumagin seismic gap is multi-segmented, and the M7.8 earthquake ruptured the eastern segment from 14 km down to 44 km depth. The coseismic slip occurred along a more steeply, 26∘ dipping segment, and was bounded up-dip by a bend of the megathrust interface to a shallower 8∘ dip angle connecting to the trench. The model for the M7.6 event tightly constrained the rupture depth extent to 19-39 km, within the depth range of the M7.8 coseismic rupture area. We find that the M7.6 event ruptured the incoming slab across its full seismogenic thickness, potentially reactivating subducted Kula-Resurrection seafloor-spreading ridge structures. Coulomb stress transfer models suggest that coseismic and/or postseismic slip of the M7.8 event could have triggered the M7.6 event. We conclude that the segmented megathrust structure and the location of intraslab fault structures limited the rupture dimensions of the M7.8 event and are responsible for the segmentation of the Shumagin seismic gap. Our study suggests that the western and shallower up-dip segments of the seismic gap did not fail and remain potential seismic and tsunami hazard sources. The unusual earthquake doublet provides a unique opportunity to improve our understanding of the role of the subducting lithosphere structure in the segmentation of subduction zones.

The exfoliation of cratonic Australia in earthquakes

The cratonic shield system of central and western Australia, with its lithosphere up to 200 km thick, is geologically similar to other ancient, stable continental interiors. But since 1968 it has experienced a number of moderate-sized (Mw 5.0–6.6) earthquakes characterised by the extreme shallowness of their sources (the deepest is 8 km and most are shallower than 4 km). At least 11 of these have produced co-seismic faulting, often very long compared to their depth, with typically no evidence of previous movement on those faults in either the local geomorphology or paleoseismological trenching. Other earthquakes show that cratonic Australia, like other shield regions, has a seismogenic layer about 30–40 km thick, but the intense very shallow seismicity in the region of thickest lithosphere stands out and is unusual. A clue to the origin of these shallow earthquakes lies in their association with some of the largest continental gravity anomalies outside the forelands of young orogenic belts, yet in essentially flat topography. The wavelength of the gravity anomalies (∼240 km) is large compared with the seismogenic thickness (∼30 km) of the lithosphere, and their amplitude is ∼50 mGals. These anomalies need stresses to support them, which can be estimated by a simple model of a flexed elastic plate that reproduces the essential features of the earthquakes, including their focal mechanisms and shallow depth limit. The model shows that the maxima of the compressive stress occur beneath the maxima and minima of the gravity, on the upper and lower boundaries of the layer respectively. Perhaps surprisingly, the magnitude of such stresses is considerably greater than most estimates of the regional stress within plates. The maxima of the shear stress occur on planes with dips of 45°. The locations and mechanisms of the earthquakes show the same features. We conclude that the earthquakes release stored elastic stresses in an exfoliation process, perhaps activated by a reduction in strength through weathering, erosion or some other process.

Links between foreland rheology and the growth and evolution of a young mountain belt in New Guinea

SUMMARYWe have studied the active and recent tectonics of New Guinea, using earthquake source modelling, analysis of gravity anomalies, seismic reflection profiles, and thermal and mechanical models. Our aim is to investigate the behaviour and evolution of a young continental deformation belt, and to explore the effects of lateral variations in foreland rheology on the deformation. We find that along-strike gradients in the lithosphere thickness of the southern foreland have resulted in correlated changes in seismogenic thickness, likely due to the effects on the temperature structure of the crust. The resulting variation in the strength of the foreland means that in the east, the foreland is broken through on thrust faults, whereas in the west it is relatively intact. The lack of correlation between the elevation of the mountain belt and the seismogenic thickness of the foreland is likely to be due to the time taken to thicken the crust in the mountains following changes in the rheology of the underthrusting foreland, as the thinned passive margin of northern Australia is consumed. The along-strike variation in whether the force exerted between the mountains and the lowlands is able to break the foreland crust enables us to estimate the effective coefficient of friction on foreland faults to be in the range of 0.01–0.28. We use force-balance calculations to show that the recent tectonic re-organization in western New Guinea is likely to be due to the development of increasing curvature in the Banda Arc, and that the impingement of continental material on the subduction zone may explain the unusually low force it exerts on western New Guinea.

Seismicity of the East African Rift System for the period 2013 to 2016

Space-time distribution of earthquakes in the East African Rift System (EARS) has been investigated for the years 2013–2016. The spatial earthquakes distribution in the time window considered in this study has revealed that the Main Ethiopian Rift (MER) is structurally linked to the eastern branch of the EARS. A relatively high level of seismicity has been obtained in this study compared to the ISC (International Seismological Centre) catalog for the same time period which implies the region is seismically more active than we thought. In addition to the rift floor, the rift margins and the surrounding plateaus are found to be seismically active. The western and eastern branches of the EARS are found to be more active than the other rift segments for the time period considered. The frequency-magnitude distribution (FMD) of events during this study period provided an average b- and a -values of ~1.01 and ~6.5, respectively. The b-value result is implying relatively high stress with tectonic origin earthquakes occurrence dominating the region. On the other hand, threshold magnitude completeness of Mc 3.0 is obtained which is the minimum value that has never been observed previously for such large area. The seismic energy map of the region has been systematically investigated and peaks energy-release is observed at Afar depression, eastern and western branches. The energy mapping shows that the MER is structurally connected to the eastern branch of the EARS which is consistent with seismicity distribution. The overall depth of occurrence of events in the eastern and the western branches of the EARS are relatively deeper than the one found for Afar and MER. This implies that the seismogenic thickness increases in EARS when we go from north to south which is in agreement with rift age, magmatism and influence of the African Super plume on the crust and upper mantle deformation in EARS.

Thermo-Rheological Properties of the Ethiopian Lithosphere and Evidence for Transient Fluid Induced Lower Crustal Seismicity Beneath the Ethiopian Rift

Lower crustal earthquakes at plate boundaries and intraplate settings occur at depth where deformation is normally expected to occur in a ductile manner. Here we use the available earthquake catalogs and compute theoretical predictions for a range of conditions for the occurrence of lower crustal earthquakes beneath the Main Ethiopian Rift (MER) and adjacent north-western (NW) plateau. Yield strength envelops are constructed using information on geothermal gradient, strain rate, and composition constrained by geophysical observations. Our models suggest that away from the MER beneath the NW plateau the depth distribution of earthquakes in the lower crust is best explained by strong mafic lower crustal rheology and hydrostatic fluid pore pressure conditions. In the same region the effective elastic thickness is similar to seismogenic thickness showing that the lower crust has long-term strength and hence can physically support brittle deformation. On the contrary, in the central MER the seismogenic thickness is much larger than the effective elastic layer thickness implying that the lower crust has no long-term strength. Here our models show that both hydrostatic and near-lithostatic fluid pore pressures fail to explain the observed seismicity and instead a combination of near-lithostatic pore fluid pressure and transient high strain rate due to the movement of fluids provide a plausible mechanism for the occurrence of seismicity in the lower crust. Our interpretations are supported by occurrence of swarms of deep earthquakes beneath the MER, as opposed to more continuous background deep seismicity away from the rift. Using time-depth progression of earthquakes, we estimate permeability values of 5.9 × 10−15m2and 1.8 × 10−14m2at lower crustal depth. The range of permeability implies that seismicity can be induced by pore-pressure diffusion, likely from fluids sourced from the mantle that reactivate preexisting faults in the lower crust. Our thermo-rheological models explain the first order differences in lower crustal earthquakes both directly beneath and outboard of the rift valley.

Variations in the Seismogenic Thickness of East Africa

AbstractThe well‐established variation in the depth of earthquakes along both branches of the East African Rift System offers an opportunity to probe the controls on the depth‐extent of seismogenesis, and the length‐scales over which this may vary. We present an updated compilation of well‐determined earthquake depths from teleseismic and regional seismic data for the East African Rift System, combined with a summary of the depth distribution of smaller‐magnitude microseismicity from 13 local network deployments. Moderate‐to‐large magnitude (Mw &gt; 5) earthquakes, unrelated to the movement of magmatic fluids, beneath Afar, the Main Ethiopian Rift, and the northernmost sections of the Eastern Branch, are confined to the upper crust. Seismicity along the Western Branch, and the southern‐most sections of the Eastern Branch extends deeper, into the lower crust, in places to depths close to the local Moho. Along the Eastern Branch, in northern Tanzania, the transition between these two regimes occurs over a distance of ≤40 km, requiring a change to a higher temperature cutoff for the deeper earthquakes; an effect that must be compositional in origin. This compositional variation in the lower crust is most likely related to the degree of hydration. Earthquakes deep within the lower crust are therefore likely to be a proxy for an anhydrous crustal composition.

Relations between earthquake distributions, geological history, tectonics and rheology on the continents.

This paper is concerned with the distribution of earthquakes, particularly their depths, with the temperature of the material in which they occur, and with the significance of both for the rheology and deformation of the continental lithosphere. Earthquakes on faults are generated by the sudden release of elastic energy that accumulates during slow plate motions. The nonlinear high-temperature creep that localizes such energy accumulation is, in principle, well understood and can be described by rheological models. But the same is not true of seismogenic brittle failure, the main focus of this paper, and severely limits the insights that can be obtained by simulations derived from geodynamical modelling of lithosphere deformation. Through advances in seismic tomography, we can now make increasingly detailed maps of lithosphere thickness on the continents. The lateral variations are dramatic, with some places up to 300 km thick, and clearly relate to the geological history of the continents as well as their present-day deformation. Where the lithosphere thickness is about 120 km or less, continental earthquakes are generally confined to upper crustal material that is colder than about 350°C. Within thick lithosphere, and especially on its edges, the entire crust may be seismogenic, with earthquakes sometimes extending into the uppermost mantle if the Moho is colder than 600°C, but the continental mantle is generally aseismic. Earthquakes in the continental lower crust at 400-600°C require the crust to be anhydrous and so are a useful guide or proxy to both composition and strength. These patterns and correlations have important implications for the geological evolution of the continents. They can be seen to have influenced features as diverse as the location of post-collisional rifting; cratonic basin formation; the location, origin and timing of granulite-facies metamorphism; and the formation, longevity and strength of cratons. In addition, they have important consequences for earthquake hazard assessment in the slowly deforming edges and interiors of continental shields or platforms, where the large seismogenic thickness can host very large earthquakes. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'Understanding earthquakes using the geological record'.

Experimental evidence for crustal control over seismic fault segmentation

Abstract Strike-slip faults are generally described as continuous structures, while they are actually formed of successive segments separated by geometrical complexities. Although this along-strike segmentation is known to affect the overall dynamics of earthquakes, the physical processes governing the scale of this segmentation remain unclear. Here, we use analogue models to investigate the structural development of strike-slip faults and the physical parameters controlling segmentation. We show that the length of fault segments is regular along strike and scales linearly with the thickness of the brittle material. Variations of the rheological properties only have minor effects on the scaling relationship. Ratios between the segment length and the brittle material thickness are similar for coseismic ruptures and sandbox experiments. This supports a model where crustal seismogenic thickness controls fault geometry. Finally, we show that the geometrical complexity acquired during strike-slip fault formation withstands cumulative displacement. Thus, the inherited complexity impedes the formation of an ever-straighter fault, and might control the length of earthquake ruptures.

Seismogenic thickness of California: Implications for thermal structure and seismic hazard

The seismogenic thickness of the crust, a proxy for brittle-crust thickness, is a geometric parameter related to crustal strength, seismic hazard, and the crust's thermo-mechanical nature. We use high-resolution earthquake-location data from California to construct a topographic map of the base of the seismogenic crust by calculating the depth above which 95% of seismicity (D95) is located for fixed width bins. Seismogenic thickness is highly variable, ranging from ~5 km to >30 km, with thicker D95 values in the Great Valley-Sierra Nevada and thinner values in the Walker Lane and northern coastal California. Seismogenic thickness is inversely correlated with surface heat flow in most locations, consistent with a steady-state conductive crust, and local deviations probably reflect non-steady-state conditions related to magmatism and/or hydrothermal circulation. Such correlation suggests that, at regional scale, brittle-ductile transition (BDT) depth is mostly controlled by geothermal gradients, and the base of the seismogenic crust essentially represents a BDT isotherm (~300–350 °C for quartz-dominated lithologies). Spatial variations of D95 depths across California can be used to evaluate or constrain the locations of future seismicity, propagation direction of earthquake ruptures, and maximum depth, rupture area, and magnitude of future strike-slip earthquake events. Thicker seismogenic crust has a greater integrated strength. Seismogenic depth asperities, which represent mechanically stronger crustal patches, may focus and nucleate future earthquake events and/or impede rupture propagation.

Rheological behaviour in continental and oceanic subduction: inferences for the seismotectonics of the Aegean Region

We reconstructed several rheological transects across the Aegean Region, comparing the behaviour in collisional versus subducting settings. We interpolated closely spaced 1D strength envelopes, realized through a dedicated MATLAB script, for determining the shallow lithospheric distribution of brittle and ductile layers. We mainly used literature data and geodynamic considerations to fix the parameters for the rheological modelling and took particular care in reproducing reliable thermal models. The results of the mechanical-rheological model highlighted the following features and differences between the northern continental collision and the southern oceanic subduction settings: i) a slightly shallower brittle-ductile transition (BDT) in the western sectors of the northern transects (~30-33 km) with respect to the southern ones (~40 km); ii) on the contrary, in the central-eastern sectors of the investigated area, corresponding to an extensional tectonic regime, the northern transects have a relatively deeper BDT (about 20-25 km) compared with the southern ones (about 15 km); iii) the occurrence of a thick, deeper brittle layer below the shallowest BDT, in the centraleastern sectors of the northern transects. We suggest that such regional differences are mainly related and attributable to the surface heat flow distribution (which directly affects the geothermal gradient) and to the tectonic and geodynamic context. The results of the rheological modelling in terms of depth extent of the brittle layer(s) have been compared with the depth distribution of available relocated seismicity, showing good agreement with the rheological layering proposed here. Finally, the depth of the shallowest BDT along the transects has been adopted as a constraint for the seismogenic layer thickness. Such information has been used to improve the seismotectonic characterization of selected crustal seismogenic sources crossing the transects, by estimating their maximum potential magnitudes on the basis of their geometrical features and consistency with the rheological layering.

A Regionalized Seismicity Model for Subduction Zones Based on Geodetic Strain Rates, Geomechanical Parameters, and Earthquake‐Catalog Data

AbstractThe Seismic Hazard Inferred from Tectonics based on the Global Strain Rate Map (SHIFT_GSRM) earthquake forecast was designed to provide high‐resolution estimates of global shallow seismicity to be used in seismic hazard assessment. This model combines geodetic strain rates with global earthquake parameters to characterize long‐term rates of seismic moment and earthquake activity. Although SHIFT_GSRM properly computes seismicity rates in seismically active continental regions, it underestimates earthquake rates in subduction zones by an average factor of approximately 3.We present a complementary method to SHIFT_GSRM to more accurately forecast earthquake rates in 37 subduction segments, based on the conservation of moment principle and the use of regional interface seismicity parameters, such as subduction dip angles, corner magnitudes, and coupled seismogenic thicknesses. In seven progressive steps, we find that SHIFT_GSRM earthquake‐rate underpredictions are mainly due to the utilization of a global probability function of seismic moment release that poorly captures the great variability among subduction megathrust interfaces.Retrospective test results show that the forecast is consistent with the observations during the 1 January 1977 to 31 December 2014 period. Moreover, successful pseudoprospective evaluations for the 1 January 2015 to 31 December 2018 period demonstrate the power of the regionalized earthquake model to properly estimate subduction‐zone seismicity.