Time-Independent Grid-Based Forecast Model for M ≥6.0 Earthquakes in Southeastern Tibetan Plateau Using GNSS Strain Rates and Seismicity

Abstract

ABSTRACT Earthquake forecasting models play a vital role in earthquake occurrence assessment. Despite improved availability of seismic and geodetic data and processing techniques to produce high-resolution catalogs and deformation history, the implementation of earthquake forecasting models with seismic and geodetic data remains a challenge. In this study, we utilize seismicity and Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) data to propose time-independent grid-based regional earthquake likelihood models for southeastern Tibetan plateau (RELM-TibetSE). First, we solve the GNSS velocity field and strain rates from 1999 to 2017, deriving geodetic moment rates and introducing empirical correction coefficients to balance them with historical seismic moment rate. Subsequently, we employ a truncated Gutenberg–Richter law and Poisson process to calculate time-independent probabilities for M ≥ 6 earthquakes in 0.2° × 0.2° cells. The grid-based forecasting models indicate that the 30-year probability for M ≥ 6 earthquakes exceeds 1% in more than one-third of the entire study area, highlighting prominently higher earthquake occurrence in these regions. Probability distribution exhibits significant spatial variations. Finally, the predictive performance of the forecasting models is validated based on historical seismicity. The validation indicates that all RELM-TibetSE exhibit good predictive capability relative to a spatially uniform model. The RELM-TibetSE incorporating principal strain rates outperforms those involving maximum shear strain rate in forecasting seismicity. And the differences in forecasting performance between the RELM-TibetSE accounting for spatially varied seismogenic thickness and rigidity and those with uniform thickness and rigidity are not significant. The forecasting models also exhibit better predictive performance for seismic source areas than for epicenters. Moreover, the optimal model highlights zones with higher earthquake occurrence, including the zones about 50 km wide across the Ninglang fault, the zones across the southwestern segment of the Lijiang–Xiaojinhe fault, the China–Myanmar borderland north of the Nantinghe fault, and so on. Therefore, it is justified to conduct multidisciplinary rigorous observations to capture the potential nucleation process of future large earthquakes in these zones.