Seismogenic Sources Research Articles

Earthquake-Induced Tsunamis in Western Greece (Ionian Sea and Western and Southern Peloponnese): Use of Tsunami Quantities, Impact and ITIS-2012 Intensities for Highlighting Susceptible Areas

Taking into account recent studies on the tsunamigenic potential of strike-slip faults, it is concluded that there is a need to reassess their near-source tsunami hazard and risk. One of the areas which needs reassessment is Western Greece, especially the Ionian Islands and the western coastal Peloponnese, where major seismogenic strike-slip structures occur. In this context, an extensive review of the available literature is conducted, including not only earthquake and tsunami catalogues but also tsunamis’ imprints on the stratigraphic record. It is concluded that the Ionian Islands and the western Peloponnese have a rich history of tsunamis since 6000 BC, revealing that they are subjected to high tsunami hazard. In addition to the teletsunami effects of distant earthquakes, there are also local tsunamis with smaller physical quantities and slighter coastal impact that are attributed mainly to local offshore faults and earthquake-triggered landslides. The fact that no destructive local tsunamis have been detected so far does not exclude the possibility of future triggering. In order to identify areas susceptible to future tsunami impact, we extract tsunami quantities and coastal impact data from available sources and we apply the Integrated Tsunami Intensity Scale 2012 (ITIS-2012) for all the events with available and adequate information. The highly susceptible areas comprise straits, funnel-shaped bays and extensive coastal areas exposed to major strike-slip seismogenic sources in the Ionian Sea and the western Hellenic Trench. Based on the aforementioned information, the inclusion of the Ionian Sea in the tsunamigenic zones of Greece is strongly recommended.

СИЛЬНОЕ ЗЕМЛЕТРЯСЕНИЕ 05.02.2022 (ML 5.5) ВБЛИЗИ НЕФТЕГАЗОВОГО МЕСТОРОЖДЕНИЯ НА СЕВЕРО-ВОСТОЧНОМ ШЕЛЬФЕ О. САХАЛИН

On 5 February, 2022 at 21:18 UTC (February 6 at 08:18 local time), an earthquake of local magnitude ML = 5.5 with a hypocenter in the upper crust occurred on the shelf of northeastern Sakhalin. The earthquake was caused by slip on the Piltun-Chaivinsky fault, which until recently was not considered a seismogenic source. The studied earthquake located in the area with Coulomb stress increment caused by the catastrophic 1995 Neftegorsk earthquake is most likely tectonic in origin. The accumulated tectonic stress associated with static stresses, triggered by the strongest earthquake in the northeast of the island, caused east-dipping reverse fault displacements. The focal mechanism of the earthquake is characterized by near-horizontal compression axes oriented sublatitudinally. The authors pioneered in collecting and analyzing instrumental data on strong ground motions near an earthquake, which are of value for engineering seismology. The macroseismic data incorporating the information received from local residents via the Internet were analyzed. Findings of the study are of practical relevance, since each year economic activities related to the subsoil development are expanding and intensifying. The present knowledge of active geological structures of the Sakhalin shelf contributes to the reassessment of seismic hazard in gas and oil producing areas.

Preseismic Perturbations and their Inhomogeneity as Computed from Ground‐ and Space‐Based Investigation during the 2016 Fukushima Earthquake

We present the atmospheric anomalies instigated through seismogenic sources by a multichannel observation using ground‐ and satellite‐based systems. This study emphasizes the seismic event which happened on the east coast of Japan, near the Fukushima Prefecture on November 21, 2016 (in UTC), with a magnitude of 6.9 and a depth of 11.4 km. We mainly focus on the atmospheric and ionospheric irregularities via acoustic and electromagnetic channels originating from earthquakes in the process of the lithosphere, atmosphere, and ionospheric coupling (LAIC) mechanism. In the acoustic channel, we study the seismogenic atmospheric gravity wave (AGW) which perturbs the local lower atmosphere. The observation of nighttime fluctuations in the very low frequency (VLF) signals and total electron content (TEC) is used to investigate the atmospheric perturbation through the electromagnetic channel. For the ground‐based observations, a VLF signal network consisting of 5 receivers in Japan is used to study by recording the VLF amplitude transmitted from the Japanese transmitter JJI (22.2 kHz). VLF nighttime fluctuation is used to check the unusualities due to the earthquake. Preseismic wavelike structures having periods of AGW are observed in the nighttime signal. Direct investigation of such AGWs is done by computing the potential energy related to AGW from the sounding of the atmosphere using broadband emission radiometry (SABER) temperature profiles mounted on the Thermosphere Ionosphere Mesosphere Energetics and Dynamics (TIMED) satellite. Ionospheric TEC inspection is done by using a ground‐based global navigation satellite system (GNSS) receiver from the International GNSS Survey (IGS) station MIZU in Japan and observing anomalies in diurnal TEC around 6 and 10 days prior to the earthquake. We also obtain the wavelike structure of AGW from the small‐scale fluctuation of TEC using wavelet analysis. All the parameters are found to be preseismic for this earthquake; the acoustics channel gives more consistent outcomes than the electromagnetic channel.

An Improved Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment of Tripura, India

The State of Tripura lies in northeast India which is considered to be one of the most seismically active regions of the world. In the present study, a realistic Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) of Tripura State based on improved seismogenic sources considering layered polygonal sources corresponding to hypo-central depth range of 0 to 25 km, 25 to 70 km and 70 to 180 km, respectively and data driven selection of suitable Ground Motion Prediction Equations (GMPEs) in a logic tree framework is presented. Analyses have been carried out by formulating a layered seismogenic source zonation together with smooth-gridded seismicity. Using the limited accelerogram records available, most suitable GMPEs have been selected after performing a thorough quantitative assessment and thus the uncertainty in selecting appropriate GMPEs in PSHA has been addressed by combining them with proper weight factor. The computations of seismic hazard are carried out in a higher resolution of grid interval of 0.05 $\degree$ X 0.05 $\degree$. The probabilistic seismic hazard distribution in terms of Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) and 5% damped Pseudo Spectral Acceleration (PSA) at different time periods for 10% and 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years at engineering bedrock level have been presented. The final results show significant improvements over the previous studies, which is reflecetd in the local variation of the hazard maps. The design response spectra at engineering bedrock level can be computed for any location in the study region from the hazard distributions. The results will be useful for earthquake resistant design and construction of structures in this region.

First evidence of the Late Pleistocene—Holocene activity of the Roveto Valley Fault (Central Apennines, Italy)

We investigated the Late Quaternary activity of a major, crustal fault affecting the southern sector of Central Apennines, i.e., the Roveto Valley Fault (also known as Liri Valley fault). This sector of the chain was hit by numerous M>5 historical seismic events. For some of these, e.g., the 1654 one (Mw6.33), the causative seismogenic source has never been conclusively defined. Within this seismotectonic framework, the recent activity of the Roveto Valley Fault is still a matter of debate. Some authors defined its activity as ended in the Middle Pleistocene; others considered it as currently active and seismogenic at least in its southern portion. We collected new geologic and geomorphologic data along the eastern (left) flank of the Roveto Valley, where the fault crops out, and we identified evidence of displacement of alluvial fans that we attributed to the Early, Middle, and Late Pleistocene. Moreover, the analysis of the relationship between colluvial/detrital deposits, chronologically constrained by means of radiocarbon dating, allowed us to define the activation of the Roveto Valley fault also during historical times, that is, over the past few centuries. Evidence of this has been collected along a large sector of the fault trace for a length of some tens of kilometres. The results of our studies contribute to improve the knowledge of the seismotectonic setting of a large sector of the Central Apennines. Indeed, proving the current activity of the Roveto Valley fault casts new light on possible seismogenic sources of major seismicity of central Italy, potentially responsible for severe damage over a wide area and to relevant cities, Rome being among them.

Geologic and geodetic constraints on the magnitude and frequency of earthquakes along Malawi's active faults: the Malawi Seismogenic Source Model (MSSM)

Abstract. Active fault data are commonly used in seismic hazard assessments, but there are challenges in deriving the slip rate, geometry, and frequency of earthquakes along active faults. Herein, we present the open-access geospatial Malawi Seismogenic Source Model (MSSM; https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5599616), which describes the seismogenic properties of faults that formed during ongoing east African rifting in Malawi. We first use empirically derived constraints to geometrically classify active faults into section, fault, and multifault seismogenic sources. For sources in the North Basin of Lake Malawi, slip rates can be derived from the vertical offset of a seismic reflector that dated lake cores indicate is 75 ka. Elsewhere, slip rates are constrained from advancing a systems-based approach that partitions geodetically derived rift extension rates in Malawi between seismogenic sources using a priori constraints on a regional strain distribution and a hanging wall flexural extension in magma-poor continental rifts. Slip rates are then combined with source geometry and empirical scaling relationships to estimate earthquake magnitudes and recurrence intervals, and their uncertainty is described from the variability in logic tree outcomes used in these calculations. Sources in the MSSM are 5–269 km long, which implies that large-magnitude (Mw 7–8) earthquakes may occur in Malawi. However, low slip rates (0.05–2 mm yr−1) mean that the frequency of such events will be low (recurrence intervals of ∼103–104 years). We also find that, for 9 out of 11 faults in Lake Malawi's North Basin, differences in the slip rates, when estimated independently from the geodetic data and the offset seismic reflector, are not statistically significant. The MSSM represents an important resource for investigating Malawi's increasing seismic risk and provides a framework for incorporating active fault data into seismic hazard assessment elsewhere in the East African Rift and other tectonically active regions.

NW-dipping versus SE-dipping causative faults of the 1783 M7.1 Southern Calabria (Italy) earthquake: The contribution from the analysis of the coseismic hydrological changes

The 1783 Mw7.1 Southern Calabria (Italy) earthquake originated a remarkable number of observations of hydrological changes (variations of flow in springs and streams, liquefaction, changes in water temperature) that occurred in different localities. To provide further constraints on the mechanism and the geometry of the causative fault of the event, I compared the distribution of the hydrological changes with the coseismic strain produced by eight seismogenic sources proposed for the earthquake. The most important outcomes of the study can be summarized as follows: a) the group of potential sources that display the best agreement between expected deformation and hydrological signature consists of NW-dipping systems of three to four surface-rupturing almost pure normal fault segments (Cittanova fault system), capable of generating earthquakes of magnitude Mw6.9–7.1; b) the distribution of the observed coseismic hydrological anomalies does not support the role of the SE-dipping faults as potential sources of the 1783 earthquake; c) the pattern of deformation associated with the best fit source strengthens the hypothesis that the 20 km-long surface ruptures testified soon after the 1783 event reflect primary faulting; d) a minimum magnitude Mw6.9–7.0 is required to obtain the pattern and the extent of distribution of the coseismic hydrological changes observed in the field; e) the location of the hydrological variations that were observed only along the western side of southern Calabria suggests that the Cittanova fault system acts as a hydrological barrier that hampers the groundwater circulation toward the East.

The impact of faulting complexity and type on earthquake rupture dynamics

The statistical properties of seismicity are known to be affected by several factors such as the rheological parameters of rocks. We analysed the earthquake double-couple as a function of the faulting type. Here we show that it impacts the moment tensors of earthquakes: thrust-faulting events are characterized by higher double-couple components with respect to strike-slip- and normal-faulting earthquakes. Our results are coherent with the stress dependence of the scaling exponent of the Gutenberg-Richter law, which is anticorrelated to the double-couple. We suggest that the structural and tectonic control of seismicity may have its origin in the complexity of the seismogenic source marked by the width of the cataclastic damage zone and by the slip of different fault planes during the same seismic event; the sharper and concentrated the slip as along faults, the higher the double-couple. This phenomenon may introduce bias in magnitude estimation, with possible impact on seismic forecasting.

Refining Rates of Active Crustal Deformation in the Upper Plate of Subduction Zones, Implied by Geological and Geodetic Data: The E-Dipping West Crati Fault, Southern Italy

We investigate crustal deformation within the upper plate of the Ionian Subduction Zone (ISZ) at different time scales by (i) refining geodetic rates of crustal extension from continuous Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) measurements and (ii) mapping sequence of Late Quaternary raised marine terraces tectonically deformed by the West Crati normal fault, in northern Calabria. This region experienced damaging earthquakes in 1184 (M 6.75) and 1854 (M 6.3), possibly on the E-dipping West Crati fault (WCF) which, however, is not unanimously considered to be a seismogenic source. We report geodetic measurements of extension and strain rates across the strike of the E-dipping WCF and throughout the northern Calabria obtained by using velocities from 18 permanent GNSS stations with a series length longer than 4.5 years. These results suggest that crustal extension may be seismically accommodated in this region by a few normal faults. Furthermore, by applying a synchronous correlation approach, we refine the chronology of understudied tectonically deformed palaeoshorelines mapped on the footwall and along the strike of the WCF, facilitating calculation of the associated fault-controlled uplift rates. Raised Late Quaternary palaeoshorelines are preserved on the footwall of the WCF indicating that “regional” uplift, likely related to the deformation associated either with the subduction or mantle upwelling processes, is affected by local footwall uplift. We show that GIS-based elevations of Late Quaternary palaeoshorelines, as well as temporally constant uplift rates, vary along the strike of the WCF, implying normal faulting activity through time. This suggests that (i) the fault slip rate governing seismic hazard has also been constant over the Late Quaternary, over multiple earthquake cycles, and (ii) our geodetically derived fault throw rate for the WCF is likely a more than reasonable value to be used over longer time scales for an improved seismic hazard assessment. Overall, we emphasize the importance of mapping crustal deformation within the upper plate above subduction zones to avoid unreliable interpretations relating to the mechanism controlling regional uplift.

Along-strike architectural variability of an exhumed crustal-scale seismogenic fault (Bolfin Fault Zone, Atacama Fault System, Chile)

Fault zone architecture and its internal structural variability play a pivotal role in earthquake mechanics, by controlling, for instance, the nucleation, propagation and arrest of individual seismic ruptures and the evolution in space and time of foreshock and aftershock seismic sequences. Nevertheless, the along-strike architectural variability of crustal-scale seismogenic sources over regional distances is still poorly investigated. Here, we describe the architectural variability of the >40-km-long exhumed, seismogenic Bolfin Fault Zone (BFZ) of the intra-arc Atacama Fault System (Northern Chile). The BFZ cuts through plutonic rocks of the Mesozoic Coastal Cordillera and was seismically active at 5–7 km depth and ≤ 300 °C in a fluid-rich environment. The BFZ includes multiple altered fault core strands, consisting of chlorite-rich cataclasites-ultracataclasites and pseudotachylytes, surrounded by chlorite-rich protobreccias to protocataclasites over a zone up to 60-m-thick. These fault rocks are embedded within a low-strain damage zone, up to 150-m-thick, which includes strongly altered volumes of dilatational hydrothermal breccias and clusters of epidote-rich fault-vein networks at the linkage of the BFZ with subsidiary faults. The strong hydrothermal alteration of rocks along both the fault core and the damage zone attests to an extensive percolation of fluids across all the elements of the structural network during the activity of the entire fault zone. In particular, we interpret the epidote-rich fault-vein networks and associated breccias as an exhumed example of upper-crustal fluid-driven earthquake swarms, similar to the presently active intra-arc Liquiñe-Ofqui Fault System (Southern Andean Volcanic Zone, Chile).

Dynamic Source Parameters of Significant Earthquakes in the Gulf of Aqaba, Egypt

Several seismological and paloseismolgical studies and historical reports have indicated that Gulf of Aqaba is characterized by higher seismicity than any other seismogenic sources around Egypt. Accordingly, surrounding areas have been impacted by several destructive earthquakes (AD 1068, AD 1212, AD 1229, AD 1458, and AD 1995). Cities situated around the Gulf of Aqaba have experienced different damage levels due to historical and instrumental earthquakes resulting in considerable fatalities. The Aqaba earthquake which occurred on November 22, 1995 (Moment magnitude (Mw) = 7.3) was the largest recorded earthquake along with the Dead Sea Fault System, strongly felt at Eastern Mediterranean region. Many seismic sequences have ocuuerd in the Gulf of Aqaba in the last decades and some of them continued for almost two years. This paper applies a spectral decomposition method based on a reference site to correct the source spectra from the path and site effects by employing Iterative Least Square analysis. The obtained displacement source spectra are modulated with Brune’s omega square type spectrum. The dynamic earthquakes parameters are computed using the S-wave window for the significant Gulf of Aqaba earthquakes. 50 earthquakes have been used in this study with Ml 3.0 to 6. The calculated seismic moments range spans from 1.48E+19 to 2.193E+22 dyne-cm, and the corner frequency range spans from 4.1 to 8.5 Hz. The source radii span which range from 84.3 m to 173.4 meters. The observed stress drops vary from 0.3 to 371.7 megapascal (Mpa).

Dynamic analysis of arch dams considering fluid-structure interaction

The social, economic, and environmental consequences of the failure of an arch dam make it essential to evaluate its dynamic response to mitigate the risk of a disaster. Since the slenderness and flexibility of these dams tend to increase the fluid-structure interaction during an earthquake, this work compares the dynamic response of a hypothetical arch dam in the Marañón river, in northern Perú, for both full and empty-reservoir conditions. Three formulations were used to estimate the hydrodynamic pressures: Westergaard’s added mass, Eulerian and Lagrangian. The comparisons were performed for earthquakes of distinct seismogenic sources, previously matched to a uniform hazard spectrum with a return period of 10000 years. The finite element method was used to derive the seismic demands of the dam-reservoir-foundation system in COMSOL Multiphysics software, carrying out time-history analyses assuming linear elastic behavior of the dam and foundation domains and a massless foundation approach, ignoring the effect of waves propagation in the foundation but considering its stiffness. The results show that the Lagrangian and Eulerian formulations produce similar seismic demands, while Westergaard’s added mass formulation is conservative. The full-reservoir condition generally increases the seismic demands, but the results will depend on the boundary conditions assumed for the fluid and the characteristics of the earthquake, among other factors. Earthquakes matched to the same uniform hazard spectrum do not necessarily produce equal dynamic responses.

Frequency magnitude distribution and spatial correlation dimension of earthquakes in north-east Himalaya and adjacent regions

Abstract The north-east sector of the Himalaya is one of the most active tectonic belts, with complex geological and tectonic features. The b-value and spatial correlation dimension (Dc) of earthquake distribution in the north-east Himalaya and its adjacent regions (20–32°N and 88–98°E) are estimated in the present study. Based on seismicity and faulting pattern, the region is divided into five active regions, namely the (i) South-Tibet, (ii) Eastern-Syntaxis, (iii) Himalayan-Frontal Arc, (iv) Arakan-Yoma belt and (v) Shillong-Plateau. A homogeneous catalogue of 1,416 earthquakes (mb ≥ 4.5) has been prepared from a revised catalogue of the ISC (International Seismological Centre). The b-value has been appraised by the maximum likelihood estimation method, while Dc values have been calculated by the correlation integral method; b-values of 1.08 ± 0.09, 1.13 ± 0.05, 0.92 ± 0.05, 1.00 ± 0.03 and 0.98 ± 0.08 have been computed for the South-Tibet, Eastern-Syntaxis, Himalayan-Frontal Arc, Arakan-Yoma belt and Shillong-Plateau region, respectively. The Dc values computed for the respective regions are 1.36 ± 0.02, 1.74 ± 0.04, 1.57 ± 0.01, 1.8 ± 0.01, and 1.83 ± 0.02. These values are > 1.5, except for the South-Tibet (1.36 ± 0.02). The b-values around the global average value (1.0) reflect the stress level and seismic activity of the regions, while high Dc values refer to the heterogeneity of the seismogenic sources.

Macroseismic intensity-based catalogue of earthquakes in Ecuador

Earthquake magnitude catalogues and peak ground acceleration (PGA) maps for Ecuador may be found in several studies, however, there are rare works on the characterisation of the epicentral macroseismic intensities associated with earthquakes. In view of the concept that macroseismic intensity enables us to categorise the extent and severity of damage to buildings and structures caused by an earthquake, this study aims to compile a macro-seismic intensity-based catalogue of earthquakes in Ecuador, characterise the epicentral macroseismic intensities associated to seismogenic sources and perform a comparison with the National Seismic Hazard Map. This paper is the first that presents a catalogue of earthquakes with macroseismic intensities ≥VII and a series of maps of earthquake epicentres according to intensity, focal depth, data and magnitude of seismic events in Ecuador, based on the study of historical and instrumental records from 1900 to 2021. The obtained data shows that 95% of the territory of Ecuador has a PGA 0.1 g, which corresponds to seismic intensities greater than VII, while regions with seismicityVIII (ag = 0.2 g) constitute 86%, and 3.8% of the territory of Ecuador has very high seismicity (IX), where the PGA exceeds 0.5 g. This information suggests that the normative National Seismic Hazard Map of Ecuador underestimate the hazard mainly in the south-east and in the Central Andes of Ecuador, and require an actualization.

The enigmatic 1693 AD tsunami in the eastern Mediterranean Sea: new insights on the triggering mechanisms and propagation dynamics

The disastrous earthquake of 1693 AD caused over 60,000 causalities and the total destruction of several villages and towns in south-eastern Sicily. Immediately after the earthquake, a tsunami struck the Ionian coasts of Sicily and the Messina Strait and was probably recorded even in the Aeolian Islands and Malta. Over the last few decades, the event has been much debated regarding the location of the seismogenic source and the possible cause of the associated tsunami. The marine event has been related to both a submarine landslide and a coseismic displacement at the seafloor. To better define the most reliable sources and dynamics of the tsunami, we couple high-resolution marine seismic survey data with hydrodynamic modelling to simulate various scenarios of tsunami generation and propagation. Results from the simulations are compared with geomorphological evidence of past tsunami impacts, described in previous work along the coast of south-eastern Sicily, and within historical chronicles and reports. The most reliable scenario considers the 1693 event composed by two different tsunami waves: a first wave generated by the coseismic fault displacement at the seafloor and a second wave generated by a submarine landslide, triggered by the earthquake shaking. Tsunami modelling shows that a simultaneous movement between fault displacement and submarine mass movement could determine a destructive interference on the tsunami waves, resulting in a reduction in wave height. For this reason, the second tsunami wave probably occurred with a maximum delay of few minutes after the one generated by the earthquake and induced a greater flooding. The double-source model could explain the observation because in the course of other destructive earthquakes in south-eastern Sicily, such as that of 1169 AD, the associated tsunami caused less damages. This implies the need to better map, define and assess the hazard responsible for this type of tsunami events.

Imaging extensional fault systems using deep electrical resistivity tomography: A case study of the Baza fault, Betic Cordillera, Spain

Seismic hazard assessment of present-day tectonic faults may be improved by studying their structure and kinematics. These features have been mainly determined by surface geological studies of exposed fault traces, structural lateral segmentation or paleoseismic trenches. All these approaches rely mainly on two-dimensional analyses of surface outcrops, while knowledge of the faults at depth remain largely inaccessible. To improve on such limitations, geophysical methods can be applied to establish detailed information on fault morphology and segmentation at depth. This work analyzes new results of a deep electrical resistivity tomography survey acquired across the Baza Fault, a present-day tectonic fault that controls the geometry of the Neogene intra-mountainous Baza Basin (Betic Cordillera, Spain). Interpretation of our preferred resistivity model reveals its detailed structure down to approximately 1000 m depth. The survey shows a minimum 2 km wide complex normal fault system, with rotational tilting blocks bounded by potentially listric normal faults. This study presents subsurface evidence of the Baza fault (F3), coincident the main topographic scarps. However, the geophysical model and geomorphic evidence also support a fault branch (F1) that might be an additional active seismogenic source. The geophysical survey technique presented in this study provides essential data to improve assessment of the seismogenic potential of the Baza Fault.

Surface Displacement and Source Parameters of the 2021 Bandar-e Genaveh, Iran, Earthquake Determined from InSAR Observations

On 18 April 2021, a MW 5.8 earthquake occurred near the city of Bandar-e Genaveh, southwestern Iran. Four synthetic aperture radar (SAR) images, acquired from Sentinel-1 (ESA Copernicus project) satellites in ascending and descending orbits, were used to get two displacement maps, catching the surface co-seismic effects through the two-pass InSAR technique. Modeling the deformation patterns using equations for a shear dislocation in elastic half-space allowed the source parameters and the slip distribution of the seismogenic source to be determined. We calculated that the rupture occurred on a reverse fault extending NW-SE, gently dipping NE and with a maximum slip reaching about 1 m. The northeast and low-dip angle of this fault are also consistent with the tectonics of the region, which is subject to deformation and shortening along the northern margin of the Arabian plate. Our estimations of the fault parameters agree with the Zagros Foredeep reverse fault. We additionally processed four other SAR images to investigate the possibility that the Mw 5.0 aftershock, which occurred about one month later, induced surface effects visible with InSAR. This analysis, however, did not provide any clear conclusions.

The Petilia-Sosti Shear Zone (Calabrian Arc, southern Italy): An onshore-offshore regional active structure

The integrated interpretation of different types of data, consisting of a detailed Digital Terrain Model, field structural and morphotectonic observations, high resolution seismic data, seismological and Synthetic Aperture Radar interferometry information (vertical and horizontal movements), associated with a review of the available literature, has allowed to analyze the shallow expression of the regional-scale Petilia-Sosti Shear Zone (PSSZ). It is one of the major NW-trending tectonic lineaments affecting the Calabrian Arc and is characterized by a present-day tectonic and gravity-driven deformation. This study investigated the portion of the PSSZ between the offshore Crotone Peninsula, located along the Ionian sea of Calabria, and the central part of the Sila Massif.A complex tectonic history is documented since middle Miocene onward for the PSSZ. It consists of an alternation of sinistral and dextral transpressional and transtensional tectonic phases correlated with the geodynamic events occurred during the SE migration of the Calabrian Arc.The shallow expression of the investigated part of the PSSZ consists of a roughly 14 km wide, ca. 80 km long NW-trending tectonic zone including synthetic NW- to NNW-trending faults and N-NE antithetic minor structures. The main identified NW-trending faults, which show a development between 30 and 50 km, are the Sila and Lakes faults in the Sila Massif, and the Marcedusa-Steccato, Fosso Umbro and Tacina faults located in the SW part of the Crotone Basin and in its offshore area. Currently, the fault segments of the Sila Massif exhibit a prevailing normal kinematics with a left-lateral component, whereas a more complex geological framework occurs in the south-western part of the onshore-offshore Crotone Basin. The latter is dominated by gravity-driven movements, associated with the SE migration of the Crotone Megalandslide and with the regional uplift of Calabria, whereas normal kinematics with a small left-lateral component of movement, locally replaced by reverse/transpressional tectonics, was observed along the southern coast in the late Pleistocene deposits of the Le Castella marine terrace.The seismological data highlight that some strong earthquakes occurred in 1638, 1744 and 1832, with magnitude Mw between 5.7 and 6.8, might be associated with the Lakes, Fosso Umbro and Tacina faults respectively. In this frame, the PSSZ is proposed as a new potential NW-oriented active composite seismogenic source for the central-northern Calabria.

Gravity changes caused by crustal fluids invasion: A perspective from finite element modeling

Gravity changes related to large earthquake preparation are reported in broad seismogenic source regions, and crustal fluids may change the gravity potential and trigger earthquakes. However, what is the major factors affecting crustal fluids movement in the upper 10 km of the continental crust and altering the gravity potential is still poorly understood. In this study, we evaluated the gravity changes caused by invasion of crustal fluids into the depth of 6–10 km using finite element based numerical modeling. We conducted a series of numerical experiments to investigate the influences of permeability distribution, the fluid source, and the invasion depth on gravity changes. The sensitivity analysis and comparison results suggest that the invasion of high-pressure fluids increases fluid density and produces positive gravity changes within a decade. Fluid pressure is the key factor for the variations of fluid density, while temperature exerts a minor influence. Consistent with the dissipation of fluid pressure, the corresponding gravity changes are fast (>3 μGal/year) in the first 2–3 years of fluid invasion and become increasingly slow later. Therefore, the first few years are the more suitable time for monitoring the gravity changes caused by crustal fluids invasion. The fluid-related gravity changes are positively correlated to the porosity and permeability of rocks adjacent to the fluid source, the salinity and the scale of crustal fluids, and the initial temperatures, and are negatively correlated to the invasion depth. Transient invasion of crustal fluids can be detected by means of the high precision gravity observation under certain conditions subjected to the initial geological characteristics of the continental crust and the geochemical evolution of the fluid sources.

Environmental effects and seismogenic source characterization of the December 2020 earthquake sequence near Petrinja, Croatia

SUMMARYOn 29 December 2020, a shallow earthquake of magnitude Mw 6.4 struck northern Croatia, near the town of Petrinja, more than 24 hr after a strong foreshock (ML 5). We formed a reconnaissance team of European geologists and engineers, from Croatia, Slovenia, France, Italy and Greece, rapidly deployed in the field to map the evidence of coseismic environmental effects. In the epicentral area, we recognized surface deformation, such as tectonic breaks along the earthquake source at the surface, liquefaction features (scattered in the fluvial plains of Kupa, Glina and Sava rivers), and slope failures, both caused by strong motion. Thanks to this concerted, collective and meticulous work, we were able to document and map a clear and unambiguous coseismic surface rupture associated with the main shock. The surface rupture appears discontinuous, consisting of multi-kilometre en échelon right stepping sections, along a NW–SE striking fault that we call the Petrinja-Pokupsko Fault. The observed deformation features, in terms of kinematics and trace alignments, are consistent with slip on a right lateral fault, in agreement with the focal solution of the main shock. We found mole tracks, displacement on faults affecting natural features (e.g. drainage channels), scarplets and more frequently breaks of anthropogenic markers (roads, fences). The surface rupture is observed over a length of ∼13 km from end-to-end, with a maximum displacement of 38 cm, and an average displacement of ∼10 cm. Moreover, the liquefaction extends over an area of nearly 600 km2 around the epicentre. Typology of liquefaction features include sand blows, lateral spreading phenomenon along the road and river embankments, as well as sand ejecta of different grain size and matrix. Development of large and long fissures along the fluvial landforms, current or ancient, with massive ejections of sediments is pervasive. These features are sometimes accompanied by small horizontal displacements. Finally, the environmental effects of the earthquake appear to be reasonably consistent with the usual scaling relationships, in particular the surface faulting. This rupture of the ground occurred on or near traces of a fault that shows clear evidence of Quaternary activity. Further and detailed studies will be carried out to characterize this source and related faults in terms of future large earthquakes potential, for their integration into seismic hazard models.