Seismic Source Research Articles

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment of Lisbon (Portugal)

The 1755 Lisbon earthquake holds significant historical importance in Portuguese history. The subsequent tsunami resulted in extensive destruction and damage, affecting not only Lisbon but also other regions of Portugal, Spain, and North Africa. This significant and hazardous event led to an increase in awareness about earthquake and tsunami risks, not only within Portugal but throughout Europe. This heightened awareness facilitated advancements in scientific developments, including design codes, standards, and earthquake engineering. However, recent studies focusing on hazard assessment for Lisbon are limited. For this reason, this paper aims to present a comprehensive probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) for the Lisbon metropolitan area. The first stage of PSHA involves defining applicable and active seismic source models (area and line sources) within the study area. Subsequently, historical and instrumental earthquake records are collected to build a homogenized earthquake catalog, utilizing both global and local earthquake databases. Following this, the completeness level of the earthquake catalog is tested. By incorporating suitable ground motion models to the region and local soil characteristics, seismic hazard maps for various return periods and hazard curves in terms of peak ground acceleration (PGA) are developed. The findings based on the area source model agree with existing literature, indicating PGA values ranging from 0.3 g to 0.9 g, 0.2 g to 0.7 g, 0.2 g to 0.5 g, and 0.1 g to 0.3 g for return periods of 2475, 975, 475, and 50 years, respectively.

A Composite Seismic Source Model for the First Major Event During the 2022 Hunga (Tonga) Volcanic Eruption

AbstractThe violent eruption of the Hunga (Tonga) submarine volcano on 15 January 2022 caused a 58 km‐heigh ash plume, catastrophic tsunami, and significant global seismic and infrasound waves. However, the physical mechanism underpinning its multiple‐explosive events remains unclear, and its resolvability relies on the seismic waveform source inversion. The studies of two different point‐source models, the seismic moment tensor (MT) and the single force (SF), have been performed separately for this eruption, which, interestingly, can explain the seismic data adequately. Here, we use a joint inversion of MT and SF to unravel a composite source of an explosion‐like MT and a significant upward force for the first major explosive event. Regarding the direction and magnitude, we propose that the upward force is likely a rebound force in response to the pressure drop on the seafloor because the water body above the volcano was abruptly uplifted by the shallow underwater explosion.

Space and time distribution of seismic source energy at Campi Flegrei, Italy through the last unrest phase (1.1.2000–31.12.2023)

We describe the space-time pattern of seismicity occurring on Campi Flegrei Caldera (CFC), Italy, where ground deformations and seismicity represent the drivers of its current bradyseismic crisis, well known and extensively studied at an international level. In detail we consider the seismicity in the time interval starting on 1.1.2000 and ending on 31.12.2023. We revise the statistics of the earthquake occurrence, focusing at possible precursory time changes of the b-parameter of the Gutenberg and Richter (G&R b−value) distribution and at the time distribution of the total seismic moment inside any swarm. To estimate the G&R b−value we use a Monte Carlo method instead of the ordinary Least Squares or Maximum likelihood methods, to easily measure the uncertainty on the b−value taking into account uncertainties on the magnitude estimates. Results show that G&R a−value and b−value calculated for cumulative and discrete distributions of Mw, the moment-magnitude, and Md, the so-called duration-magnitude, are the same inside the uncertainties; a−value and b−value for Md are significantly different from the same parameters estimated for Mw, being b−value for Mw close to the value of 1.0 and b−value for Md close to 0.8. The “bounded” G&R distribution fits the data yielding a−value and b−value close to those for the unbounded distribution. The mean annual rate of exceedance, calculated for the entire catalogue, results to be 0.033±0.015 (years−1) corresponding to a return period of 30±14 years for Mw=4.5. The time dependence of G&R b-parameter show a b−value time pattern characterized by variations slightly outside 1-σ uncertainty bar, tending to the value of 1 approaching present. As evidenced by several past studies, earthquakes in CFC occur in space-time clusters, with a mean time duration of 1 day. We selected the swarms with a selection algorithm, based on the joint estimation of inter-arrival times and inter-event distance for the consecutive event couples. The plot of the event number in each cluster vs the time of occurrence, clearly show that in CFC the number of cluster occurrences and the event number in each cluster accelerates during time starting from 2010. The time-pattern of the total seismic moment in each cluster shows that, contrarily to the event number, there is no evident striking increase of the total swarm moment as a function of time.We also consider distribution of the Energy Space Density of the CFC earthquakes, ESD. This quantity shows a clearly visible enlargement of the fractured rock volumes in the last 15 months, toward West, at a depth around 3000 m below sea level. The most fractured zone coincides with the greatest contrasts in seismic attenuation.The present study confirms that the current unrest phase is still ongoing, with an enlargement of the rock fracturing zone which extends southward and westward as compared with that measured 22 months before.

Mechanical behaviour and instability mechanism of sandstones with impact tendency under different loading paths

ABSTRACT To reveal the instability and failure mechanism of pillars with impact tendency, the Brazilian test, uniaxial compressive test, cyclic loading and unloading (CLU) tests were performed on sandstones which had impact tendency. The stress drop phenomenon was obvious in the fracture stage during the Brazilian test. The main tensile crack with penetration type appeared. Under the CLU condition, the CLU had a significant effect in enhancing the mechanical character of rocks. Under the combined loading, the character stress of rocks tested with the CLU was greater than the uniaxial loading. Moreover, the greater the first cyclic threshold, the greater the character stress of rocks. Under the uniaxial loading, the failed samples showed tensile fractures. The damage location of the samples was closely related to the Poisson effect and the ending face effect. With the electron microscope which had the same magnification, the crack deterioration degree of samples under the uniaxial loading was greater than the CLU condition. Moreover, with the first cycle threshold increasing, the surface roughness of rocks gradually decreased. The quantity of secondary micro cracks gradually decreased. The propagation and penetration phenomenon gradually disappeared. The micro structure and loading properties of rocks were affected by the bonding force and structural characters between the internal structure and matrix. Based on the micro-seismic signal of the damaging threshold, the seismic source damage location can be located. Moreover, the pillar-typed burst area can be forewarned. This research benefits predicting the pillar-typed burst disaster.

Studying Past Earthquakes with Modern Techniques: Ground-Motion Simulations for the 11 January 1693 Noto Earthquake in Italy

Abstract The 1693 Noto earthquake, which struck on 11 January, is one of the Italy’s largest and most devastating earthquakes. According to the Italian Parametric Earthquake Catalogue, it reached a maximum intensity of 11 on the Mercalli–Cancani–Sieberg scale and had an estimated magnitude of M 7.3. Nevertheless, its precise location and source definition remain subjects to debate due to the complexity of the seismic sequence and lack of geological evidence. A series of potential seismic sources differing in location, dimension, and kinematics have been proposed in the literature based on seismotectonic data and interpretations. The goal of this work is to perform a retrospective experiment to verify which of the proposed seismic sources have a better fit with the observed intensity data. To do so, novel simulation techniques are used to study this historical earthquake. We generated ground-motion scenarios for each proposed source model through a stochastic finite-fault simulation approach. Then, the simulated ground-motion parameters were converted to intensities using two different ground-motion intensity conversion equations for Italy. Finally, we compared these converted intensities with the observed intensity data in terms of normalized root mean square errors and converted intensities from ground-motion models. Our results generally show good consistency between converted intensities from the simulated and predicted ground motions, whereas the observed intensities fit better to converted ones from the peak ground velocity rather than peak ground acceleration. Our analysis reveals that the source model reproducing the best of the macroseismic data of the Noto earthquake is the Canicattì–Villasmundo fault system with a magnitude of 7.1.

Analysis for site seismic hazard probability considering the orientation distribution of potential seismic sources

Analysis for site seismic hazard probability considering the orientation distribution of potential seismic sources

Estimating Lab-Quake Source Parameters: Spectral Inversion from a Calibrated Acoustic System.

Laboratory acoustic emissions (AEs) serve as small-scale analogues to earthquakes, offering fundamental insights into seismic processes. To ensure accurate physical interpretations of AEs, rigorous calibration of the acoustic system is essential. In this paper, we present an empirical calibration technique that quantifies sensor response, instrumentation effects, and path characteristics into a single entity termed instrument apparatus response. Using a controlled seismic source with different steel balls, we retrieve the instrument apparatus response in the frequency domain under typical experimental conditions for various piezoelectric sensors (PZTs) arranged to simulate a three-component seismic station. Removing these responses from the raw AE spectra allows us to obtain calibrated AE source spectra, which are then effectively used to constrain the seismic AE source parameters. We apply this calibration method to acoustic emissions (AEs) generated during unstable stick-slip behavior of a quartz gouge in double direct shear experiments. The calibrated AEs range in magnitude from -7.1 to -6.4 and exhibit stress drops between 0.075 MPa and 4.29 MPa, consistent with earthquake scaling relation. This result highlights the strong similarities between AEs generated from frictional gouge experiments and natural earthquakes. Through this acoustic emission calibration, we gain physical insights into the seismic sources of laboratory AEs, enhancing our understanding of seismic rupture processes in fault gouge experiments.

Drivers to seismic hazard curve slope

AbstractThe slope of a linear approximation of a probabilistic seismic hazard curve, when it is represented in the log‐log scale, is a key parameter for seismic risk assessment based on closed‐form solutions, and other applications. On the other hand, it is observed that different hazard models can provide, at the same site, comparable ground shaking, yet appreciably different slopes for the same exceedance return period. Moreover, the slope at a given return period can increase or decrease from low‐ to high‐hazardous sites, depending on the models the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) is based on. In the study, the sensitivity of the slope to the main model components involved in PSHA was explored, that is: the earthquake rate, the magnitude and source‐to‐site distance distributions, and the value of the residual of ground motion models (GMM). With reference to a generic site, affected by an ideal seismic source zone, where magnitude follows the Gutenberg‐Richter (G‐R) relationship, it was found that the local slope of hazard curve increases with the following factors in descending order of importance: (i) increasing distance from the source; (ii) decreasing maximum magnitude and increasing ‐value of the G‐R model; (iii) increasing rate of earthquakes of interest; (iv) increasing residual of the GMM. These results help explain the systematic differences in hazard curve slopes found in three authoritative hazard models for Italy, and the related impact on simplified risk assessment.

Application of non-stationary shear-wave velocity randomization approach to predict 1D seismic site response and its variability at two downhole array recordings

Accounting for uncertainties in seismic site response is crucial to improving the performance of one-dimensional (1D) ground response analyses (GRAs) at downhole array recording sites. In addition to site effects, uncertainties in 1D-GRAs can also be contributed from the seismic source and/or path. Though often representing not more than one percent of the distance (path) from the source, site conditions are known to have an enormous influence on ground shaking. In this study, we focus on the site shear-wave velocity (VS) structure, which is the main ingredient for estimating the variability of site response. As such, VS can manifest aleatory uncertainties related to the effects of small-scale spatial heterogeneities within the near surface, thus VS can substantially modify ground shaking during earthquakes. We apply a novel VS randomization approach to propagate the small-scale heterogeneities of VS to estimate seismic site response within a non-stationary probabilistic framework. The randomization approach generates samples of VS profiles that are used to perform several 1D-GRAs and obtain an averaged site response and related variability. The proposed method is implemented on data recorded at two downhole array sites with different subsurface soil conditions: a soft soil site on Treasure Island (California, United States of America) and a rock outcrop site in Cadarache (South-East France). We show that synthetic surface-to-borehole transfer functions from 1D-GRAs provide an acceptable fit to the empirical transfer functions from low-motion earthquake records and succeed in reproducing most of the site-specific seismic response variability. The remaining mismatch between transfer functions is likely due to insufficient precision on the seismic bedrock and the impedance contrast. The variability in site response is discussed with emphasis on the role of VS small-scale heterogeneities, attenuation, and input motion incidence angle in ground motion variability for the site and soil conditions at both locations.

Finite element analysis of a Helmholtz transducer jointly driven by a trilaminar ring and a piezoelectric circular tube

Abstract Crosswell seismic survey can image the crosswell geological anomalies with high resolution in 3D. To effectively conduct crosswell seismic survey, it is necessary to use a seismic source capable of transmitting low-frequency and high-power signals in a compact size. In this paper, a novel Helmholtz transducer is proposed, which utilizes both the bending vibrations of the trilaminar ring and the radial vibrations of the piezoelectric circular tube to simultaneously drive the vibration of the Helmholtz liquid cavity. This design reduces the resonant frequency of the liquid cavity while enhancing the transmitting voltage response at the liquid cavity resonant frequency. The influence of the inner radius of the trilaminar ring, the outer radius of the ceramic ring and the length of the piezoelectric circular tube on the liquid cavity resonant frequency and the transmitting voltage response at the liquid cavity resonant frequency is simulated using the finite element method. The simulation results provide a theoretical foundation for optimizing the design of such transducers.

Validation of Ps‐P Tomography for Obtaining 3D Crustal VP/VS With Small‐N Data Sets: An Application to the Mount St. Helens Magmatic System

AbstractThe high sensitivity of VP/VS to the presence of melt makes images of VP/VS structure particularly useful in magmatic systems, but detailed three‐dimensional models of VP/VS structure in magmatic systems are often restricted to the upper crust where there is a concentration of seismic sources used for imaging. Ps‐P tomography is a new technique that has been used to image three‐dimensional crustal‐scale variations in VP/VS in regions with limited seismic instrumentation. We apply the Ps‐P tomography technique to a well‐constrained, independently imaged magmatic setting, Mount St. Helens, to outline the efficacy and limitations of this imaging approach. Our Ps‐P tomography model reveals previously imaged high VP/VS upper crustal magma reservoirs beneath active volcanic systems at Mount St. Helens, Mount Adams and the Indian Heaven Volcanic Field and low VP/VS anomalies associated with crystallized plutons. Our model also provides new VP/VS constraints in the lower crust that reveal a high VP/VS anomaly connecting the Mount St. Helens and Mount Adams reservoirs and a low VP/VS anomaly associated with lower crustal cumulates or mafic accreted terranes. Decimation tests further show that first order VP/VS structure is recoverable using as few as four recording seismometers. These images resemble those of independent, higher resolution images from traditional techniques, highlighting the utility of Ps‐P tomography for imaging three‐dimensional variations of VP/VS throughout the crust, including in data‐poor settings or with arrays not designed for structural seismic investigations, such as many volcano monitoring networks.

Deep‐Learning Phase‐Onset Picker for Deep Earth Seismology: PKIKP Waves

AbstractBody waves traversing the Earth's interior from a seismic source to receivers on the surface carry rich information about its internal structures. Their travel time measurements have been widely used in seismology to constrain Earth's interior at the global scale by mapping the time anomaly along their ray paths. However, picking the travel time of global seismic waves, suitable for studying Earth's fine‐scale structures, requires highly skilled personnel and is often fairly subjective. Here, we report the development of an automatic picker for PKIKP waves traveling through the inner core (IC), especially nearly along Earth's diameters, based on the latest advances in supervised deep learning. A convolutional neural network (CNN) we develop automatically determines the PKIKP onset on vertical seismograms near its theoretical prediction of cataloged earthquakes. As high‐quality manual onset picks of global seismic phases are limited, we employ a scheme to generate a synthetic supervised training data set containing 300,000 waveforms. The PKIKP onsets picked by our trained CNN automatic picker exhibit a mean absolute error of ∼0.5 s compared to 1,503 manual picks, comparable to the estimated human‐picking error. In an integration test, the automatic picks obtained from an extended waveform data set yield a cylindrically anisotropic IC model that agrees well with the models inferred from manual picks, which illustrates the success of this pilot model. This is a significant step closer to harvesting an unprecedented volume of travel time measurements for studying the IC or other regions of the Earth's deep interior.

Magma fizz: Tremor during the Kīlauea summit reservoir decompression

Typical eruptions at Kīlauea volcano involve the evacuation of magma from the summit and/or south caldera reservoirs towards the East or Southwest rift zones. The reservoir drainage provokes the summit deflation, and on extreme occasions, such as in 2018, the summit caldera collapse. Systematically, seismic tremor, often with a particular multichromatic spectral signature characterized by frequency gliding, accompanies summit deflation episodes. In 2018, this type of continuous tremor accompanied the steady subsidence stage, whereas discrete earthquakes dominated the collapse stage. In this work, we aim to understand the source mechanism of the syn-deflation tremor of 2018. To locate the seismic source, we develop a novel machine-learning-based algorithm as an alternative to the amplitude source location technique. We use a large high-resolution catalog to resolve a composite amplitude decay function. Under these conditions, our method outperforms the traditional technique. We locate the tremor source 1 km below the eastern perimeter of the Halema‘uma‘u crater, which coincides with the position of the summit magma reservoir, as determined in many other studies. Furthermore, we model the seismic source as pressure oscillations driven by gas porous flow at the roof of the reservoir. In this model, gas accumulates temporarily in many gas pockets between the magma and the roof. Our modeling shows that the gas flux is responsible for the tremor amplitude modulations, whereas the gas pocket thickness controls the frequency variations. Beyond a critical point of depressurization, the magma cannot contribute further to the tremor oscillations via decompression-driven degassing, nor support the roof above it, resulting in rock failure. This work advances our understanding of magma-degassing dynamics and tremor generation at Kilauea volcano, and provides novel seismological techniques for volcano seismology monitoring and research.

Impact of seismotectonic source zoning and seismic parameter: Sensitivity study on probabilistic seismic hazard assessment

The demarcation of seismic area source zones plays a pivotal role in probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA). In this study, we developed five distinct seismotectonic area source models, integrating large and small areas based on geological, tectonic, and seismological data. Logic tree methodology is utilized in FRISK88M for PSHA. Analysis revealed higher hazards in models with larger area sources compared to those with smaller ones. Hazard deaggregation of seismotectonic model-5 (SM5) is examined and sensitivity analysis of various logic tree nodes is investigated in terms of percent deviation w.r.t mean hazard at various spectral and return periods. The findings underscore that recurrence methods fall into "insensitive level" (≤5%), source mechanism and a-value distribution belong to "low sensitive level" (>5–15%), magnitude distribution lies in "medium sensitive level" (>15–25%), b-value distribution belongs to "high sensitive level" (>25–35%), and ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) and depth distribution falls into "very high sensitive level" (>35%) in relation to seismic hazard.

A seismic source characterization model of multi-station based on graph neural network

A seismic source characterization model of multi-station based on graph neural network

Probabilistic Programming for Transportable Source Characterization and Uncertainty Quantification of the North Korean Nuclear Tests 2006–2017

Abstract We introduce a transportable technique to determine the yield and depth of burial (DOB) from seismic source spectra of underground nuclear explosions. We demonstrate this technique on the six declared North Korean nuclear tests. This approach derives source spectra in absolute units from regional phase (Pg) amplitudes by correcting the observations for geometric spreading, attenuation, and site amplification. We couple the source spectra and explosion source models with a probabilistic programming framework that integrates deep learning techniques and Bayesian modeling. This approach permits the exchange of information across various data categories to quantify both the data and model uncertainty. This technique stands out as an innovative use of broad-area propagation models, making it transportable across various geologic settings. This method proves to be effective in scenarios with diverse and/or limited observational data, even when the source depth is unknown. We present new independent estimates of absolute yield and DOB that are consistent with the prior assessments, underscoring the potential of this method in enhancing transportable nuclear explosion monitoring capabilities.

A model for the hydrothermal tremor source of the Mefite d’Ansanto (Italy) CO2 non-volcanic emissions in the intermediate frequency band (1–15 Hz)

In the Summer 2021 a seismic passive survey was carried out at Mefite d’Ansanto (Italy), well-known for the cold non-volcanic and lethal CO2 emissions. Mefite is located close to that part of Irpinia region hosting the large historical earthquakes’ faults, that generated the destructive magnitude 6.8 earthquake of 1980 and have been related to the CO2 leakage by the scientific community. The survey was conducted by installing a small short-period seismic array with the purpose of determining the wavefield features and detecting the possible signature of the regional stress variations. By analyzing the acquired data, we have determined the properties of the seismic wavefield associated with the emission vents, in the intermediate frequency band, 1–15 Hz, which was found to be composed of a stationary background component and an intermittent higher energy one. Basing on our results, considerations on the medium properties and the deep source available information, we have depicted a schematic model of the shallow seismic source: the background components are linked to the shallower activity of the hydrothermal system, e.g. the bubbling, while the intermittent ones are likely generated by the passage of the overpressured gas, trapped in the first-tens-meters’ layers, after overcoming the internal cohesion charge. The characteristics of the wavefield that we have defined, refer to a condition in which no regional earthquakes occurred and could be considered as a basis to identify possible significant variations linked to CO2 emissions and to the regional stress changes.

Seismic source analysis and directivity of the November 2021 Fin doublet earthquake in southern Iran: challenges and findings

Studying the source characteristics of doublet or multiple earthquake sequences presents significant challenges in seismology, especially with short time intervals between events. On November 14, 2021, a doublet earthquake (Mw 6.0 and Mw 6.1) occurred near Fin city, southern Iran, within a span of less than two minutes and 10 km apart. We employed the Kinematic Waveform Inversion (KIWI) procedure to determine the point and extended source parameters of these events, using a multistep inversion approach for stable solutions. Our analysis highlighted the directivity of the earthquakes: the first event exhibited bilateral directivity, causing a rupture area that reached the surface, while the second event showed unilateral westward directivity, supported by waveform amplitude differences observed at various stations. This directivity analysis plays an essential role in seismic hazard studies. Our findings regarding the source parameters of these recent doublet earthquakes in the Fin region align well with regional geological trends and fault patterns. However, retrieving the main fault plane for the second earthquake was challenging due to the complexities of the waveform. Moment tensor decomposition revealed significant non-double-couple components for the second event, indicating the complexity inherent in analyzing doublet events. This study underscores the critical role of precise waveform analysis and robust inversion techniques in understanding complex seismic events.

The Impact of Source Time Function Complexity on Stress-Drop Estimates

ABSTRACT Earthquake stress drop—a key parameter for describing the energetics of earthquake rupture—can be estimated in several different, but theoretically equivalent, ways. However, independent estimates for the same earthquakes sometimes differ significantly. We find that earthquake source complexity plays a significant role in why theoretically (for simple rupture models) equivalent methods produce different estimates. We apply time- and frequency-domain methods to estimate stress drops for real earthquakes in the SCARDEC (Seismic source ChAracteristics Retrieved from DEConvolving teleseismic body waves, Vallée and Douet, 2016) source time function (STF) database and analyze how rupture complexity drives stress-drop estimate discrepancies. Specifically, we identify two complexity metrics—Brune relative energy (BRE) and spectral decay—that parameterize an earthquake’s complexity relative to the standard Brune model and strongly correlate with the estimate discrepancies. We find that the observed systematic magnitude–stress-drop trends may reflect underlying changes in STF complexity, not necessarily trends in actual stress drop. Both the decay and BRE parameters vary systematically with magnitude, but whether this magnitude–complexity relationship is real remains unresolved.

Source analysis of low frequency seismicity at Mt. Vesuvius by a hybrid moment tensor inversion

Seismicity at Mt. Vesuvius has been relatively weak in the last decades. While the occurrence of shallow volcano-tectonic (VT) events at Mt. Vesuvius is well known, the occurrence of deeper low frequency events (LF) was only recently recognized. Previous source studies only targeted VT events, which were found to have quite heterogeneous focal mechanisms. In this paper, we perform for the first time the source inversion of LF seismicity at Mt. Vesuvius, analysing 27 LF events recorded from 2012 to 2021 with the aim to investigate their source processes. Given the challenges of analysing weak LF earthquakes, we implement a specific moment tensor (MT) inversion approach that combines the fit of displacement seismograms in the time domain and amplitude spectra in the frequency domain. The inversion is simultaneously performed for the source depth and moment tensor components in the 2–7 and 2–5 Hz frequency band, assuming either a full or deviatoric MT representation. Source parameter uncertainties are estimated by using a Bayesian bootstrapping scheme. Our results confirm a larger depth of LF events compared to VTs and show a strong heterogeneity of the LF seismic sources, which present various rupture types, different orientations and heterogeneous, whilst poorly resolved, non-double-couple components. The MT variability is qualitatively confirmed by significant differences among the recorded waveforms. The heterogeneity of both VT and LF source processes is attributed to complex source processes in a highly fractured seismogenic volume submitted to a heterogeneous stress field.