Seismic Hazard Assessment Research Articles

Assessing Potential Seismic Hazard in Enhanced Geothermal Systems: Insights from Comparing Gonghe and Pohang Reservoirs

Abstract Evaluating and predicting the seismic hazard induced by fluid injection in enhanced geothermal systems (EGSs) is critical for safe and effective operations. This study compares the Gonghe project, a pioneering EGS initiative in China, with the well-studied Pohang EGS in South Korea, within a broader context of global fluid injection practices. We assessed the potential seismic hazard at these two sites based on their seismogenic indices (Σ). We find that Σ of the Gonghe EGS generally decreases from 0.4 to −0.7, consistent with the typical ranges of Σ in EGS sites, including Pohang. Our results indicate that real-time Σ is a more reliable measure for assessing seismic hazard in Gonghe because it offers insights into the maximum magnitude, exceedance probabilities, and expected numbers of earthquakes. Conversely, in Pohang, maximum Σ proves more effective for seismic hazard assessment. However, predicting the seismic hazard after the Mw 3.2 earthquake in Pohang remains challenging, particularly for the runaway rupture associated with the subsequent Mw 5.5 earthquake, highlighting the complexities involved. This study suggests that the use of real-time Σ is viable for assessing seismic hazard in EGS reservoirs characterized by descending Σ and seismic injection efficiency. Conversely, for reservoirs with ascending Σ and seismic injection efficiency, such as Pohang, maximum Σ could offer better insights into seismic hazard assessment, although precise earthquake magnitude constraints may be elusive due to dominant tectonic influences.

Analysis of Magnitude–Frequency Distribution of Earthquakes in the Sichuan Basin, Southwest China

Abstract The Sichuan basin is characterized by underdeveloped active geological structures and low seismic activities. In recent years, an increase in seismicity has been observed in the southern Sichuan basin, which includes small earthquakes induced by water injection during shale gas exploitation and M ≥ 5.0 earthquakes, causing unexpected damage and casualties. This necessitates a comprehensive analysis of the magnitude–frequency distribution of the current seismicity. In this study, we examined the current seismicity using instrumental earthquake records at different periods and estimated the temporal and spatial variations in b-value. We found that the b-values widely vary in the Sichuan basin and analyzed the spatial differences in b-value in seven different earthquake clusters. The results show that the intense fault movement on the western boundary of the Sichuan basin might be the main controlling factor of the increased seismicity in the southern basin instead of being induced by water injection. Furthermore, earthquakes in the Sichuan basin follow the same size distribution as the events on the boundary faults and the Sichuan–Yunnan rhombus active block. Thus, it is appropriate to consider the magnitude–frequency distribution of earthquakes for the Sichuan basin and the Sichuan–Yunnan rhombus block together rather than separately. These results may help improve the recurrence models in probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of the region.

Using a 1D Radially Symmetric Coda Envelope Model for Robust Moment Magnitude (Mw) Estimation in Iraq’s Tectonically Diverse Zones

ABSTRACT Robust estimation of moment magnitude (Mw) can be challenging for Iraq due to the strong lateral heterogeneity across diverse tectonic zones. We aim to improve moment magnitude estimation by investigating the reliability of using a 1D coda envelope model in diverse tectonic zones of different lateral effects and offer a way forward for reliable estimates of Mw for small events that are difficult to waveform model. Iraq comprises two main tectonic zones: (1) the Outer platform, consisting of the northwestern Zagros fold-thrust belt and the Mesopotamian foredeep, and (2) the Inner Arabian platform which is overlain by the Iraqi desert. A simple 1D coda envelope model was used because coda waves have a low sensitivity to the source and path heterogeneity. Three separate coda calibrations were conducted to investigate the robustness of a single 1D calibration to fit the country: Whole-region calibration, Zagros calibration, and Mesopotamia calibration. In the whole-region calibration, we used stations from both the Zagros and Mesopotamia zones. In the two other calibration models, we used only stations that were in those particular zones. Ground-truth reference spectra derived from the coda spectral ratio method were used to constrain high-frequency site terms. There was no drastic difference when comparing the moment magnitudes calculated from the waveform modeling and the three calibration models. The results show that the 1D coda envelope model is a reliable method even for a region with diverse tectonic zones. Hence, we recommend using the whole-region calibration model for moment magnitude estimation that provides more complete path coverage and avoids biases introduced by path correction failures. The proposed calibration is a fundamental step in updating the comprehensive earthquake catalog and probabilistic seismic hazard assessments for Iraq.

Dependence of horizontal PGA prediction on site conditions at critically short hypocentral distances: an analysis based on Japanese strong motion data

A fundamental element in seismic hazard assessment studies is the prediction of maximum values of ground accelerations. This is achieved through an attenuation relationship, also known as the ground motion prediction equation (GMPE). Seismic design of structures generally assumes the occurrence of a large earthquake on a nearby fault. The predictions from the GMPE are linked to the magnitude, distance, and local site conditions. Critical near‑fault ground motions have unique characteristics such as magnitude saturation and distance saturation. To investigate the impact of local site conditions in the near‑fault region, we analyzed the attenuation relations using the accelerations recorded in Japan by the Kiban Kyoshin network (KiK‑net) from 2000 to 2023. All events with a magnitude equal to or greater than 5.5, and with focal depth and epicentral distance less than 20 km, were considered. In this study, the hypocentral distance ranges from 5 to 23 km. Ordinary least squares regression analysis was conducted for the maximum horizontal vector of ground accelerations. The attenuation relation coefficients for horizontal vector peak ground acceleration were estimated using an effective distance and saturation effect. An additional independent term, the average shear wave velocity of the soil to a depth of 30 meters below the ground surface, and more cost‑effective shallower depths were included in the regression model. The analysis revealed that the site condition is statistically non‑significant at very short hypocentral distances of less than 23 kilometers.

Statistical Analysis of Characteristic Parameters and Probability Distribution of Near-Fault Velocity Pulses—A Case Study on the 1999 Mw 7.6 Chi-Chi Earthquake

Abstract The 1999 Mw 7.6 Chi-Chi earthquake in the Taiwan region generated valuable ground motions, providing an opportunity for studying the characteristic parameters and distribution of near-fault velocity pulses. Using the finite-difference method, we built a source model, simulated the 1999 Mw 7.6 Chi-Chi earthquake ground motions, and obtained synthetic velocity waveforms consistent with the observed waveforms. On this basis, we analyzed the distribution of velocity pulses in the near-fault region and compared it with the pulse probability distribution (PPD) curve of the near-fault velocity pulse. We found that the complex rupture process of the Mw 7.6 Chi-Chi earthquake resulted in velocity pulses still being recorded in Miaoli and Xinzhu. In addition, we analyzed the relationship between pulse period, pulse peak, and fault distance. The pulse peak indicates a clear attenuation trend with increasing fault distance (Rrup) and no statistical relationship between the pulse period and Rrup. More velocity pulses in normal-fault components reveal the reverse fault of the Chi-Chi earthquake. Finally, structures with natural periods within the 1–7 s are more susceptible to resonance from near-fault velocity pulses, and it is necessary to take appropriate seismic measures. This study lays the foundation for a deeper understanding of the ground motion and pulse characteristics caused by earthquakes and contributes to sustained efforts in seismic hazard assessment.

Internal deformation of the North Andean Sliver in Ecuador-southern Colombia observed by InSAR

Summary In the Northern Andes, partitioning of oblique subduction of the Nazca plate beneath the South American continent induces a northeastward motion of the North Andean Sliver. The strain resulting from this motion is absorbed by crustal faults, which have produced magnitude 7 + earthquakes historically in the Andean Cordillera of Ecuador and southern Colombia. In order to quantify the strain in that area, we derive a high-resolution surface velocity map using InSAR time-series processing. We analyzed 6 to 8 years of Sentinel-1 data and combined different satellite line-of-sight directions to produce a reliable velocity map in the East direction. We use interpolated GNSS data to express the velocity map with respect to Stable South America and remove the long-wavelength pattern due to the post-seismic deformation following the 2016 Mw 7.8 Pedernales earthquake. The InSAR velocity map finds high E-W shortening strain rates along N-S trending structures within the Western Cordillera and the Interandean valley, with little deformation taking place east of them. This result strengthens the previous proposition of a ∼350 km long Quito-Latacunga tectonic block, forming a restraining bend in the overall right-lateral strike-slip fault system accommodating the northeastward escape motion of the North Andean Sliver. However, the high spatial resolution provided by InSAR indicates that previously proposed boundaries for this block need to be revised. In particular, InSAR results highlight high strain rate (>300 nstrain/yr) along undescribed active structures, south and west of the proposed limits for the Quito-Latacunga block, respectively in Peltetec and Ibarra regions. Interestingly, the two areas with the largest strain rates spatially correlate with the proposed areas of large historical earthquakes. Modeling of the InSAR and GNSS velocities in these areas suggests shallow coupling and high slip rates on structures which, previously, were not identified as active. We also demonstrate a slow-down of the shallow aseismic slip on the Quito fault after the Pedernales earthquake, suggesting that stress changes following large megathrust events might trigger transient slip behaviors on crustal faults. The high-resolution strain map provided by this work provides a new basis for future tectonic models in the Ecuadorian and southern Colombian Andes, and will contribute to the seismic hazard assessment in this highly populated area of the Andes.

Historical earthquakes in the Holy Cross Mountains, Poland, true or false? Unveiling insights through archaeoseismology

The Holy Cross Mountains are an intraplate range with a limited historical seismicity record. The only documented earthquakes include the February 6, 1837 M 4.3 event, which caused ground cracks, and swarm events from February 1932 (M ∼ 3.5), likely triggered by the Holy Cross Fault (HCF) or sub-perpendicular faults. The apparent lack of older destructive earthquakes in historical catalogs motivated us to conduct archaeoseismological research to improve seismic hazard assessment, risk mitigation, and urban planning strategies, ultimately benefiting local communities. We focused on the 12th-century Collegiate church of Saint Martin in Opatów, located near the Holly Cross Fault (HCF). We report numerous damage features, such as leaning, bulging, and twisted walls, dropped keystones in Romanesque and Gothic portals, strike-slip displacements of these portals, surplus, oversized buttresses, and walled-up portals. While some deformations may result from humid loess instability and war destructions, our data, combined with historical records, suggest two to three seismic events in the past 800 years as a cause. We argue these deformations were co-seismically triggered by either large far-field events, like the 1259 AD earthquake, or local, shallow small-magnitude events significantly amplified by site effects. This indicates potential seismic activity in the Holy Cross Mountains during Medieval times. The absence of historical records does not imply the absence of earthquakes.

Spatial correlation assessment of multiple earthquake intensity measures using physics-based simulated ground motions

Predictive models for spatial correlation play an effective role in the assessment of seismic risk associated with distributed infrastructure and building portfolios. However, existing models often rely on simplified approaches, assuming isotropy and stationarity. This paper verifies these assumptions by presenting a comprehensive study using a database of 3D physics-based simulated broadband ground motions for Istanbul, generated by the SPEED software. The results reveal significant event-to-event variability and nonstationary and anisotropic characteristics of spatial correlation influenced by source, path, and site effects. The development of nonstationary correlation models requires exploring influential metrics beyond spatial proximity and gaining a deep understanding of their impact, which is the focus of this study. Analysis of the spatial correlations of peak ground displacement, peak ground velocity, peak ground acceleration, and response spectral accelerations at different periods, employing both stationary and nonstationary correlation modelling methods and considering the finite fault model, indicates that the slip distribution pattern, direction and distance of station pairs relative to earthquake rupture, soil softness, and homogeneity of soil properties significantly influence the spatial correlations of near-field earthquake ground motions. Implementation of the introduced parameters in predictive spatial correlation models enhances the precision of regional seismic hazard assessments.

Unveiling complex fault geometry and driving mechanisms: insights from a refined data processing and multiplet analysis of the 2010 Beni-Ilmane seismic sequence (NE Algeria)

SUMMARY This paper offers a comprehensive re-analysis of the Beni-Ilmane 2010 seismic sequence, using a data set that is 100 per cent larger than previous studies. This unprecedented sequence in Algeria features three main shocks with magnitudes Mw 5.4, 5.1 and 5.1. Our approach involves high-precision relocation, which includes the development of a new 1-D minimum velocity model, followed by a double-difference (DD) procedure and hierarchical clustering. We determined the focal mechanisms (FMs) for 128 key events and identified 21 multiplet groups using an average cross-correlation threshold of 0.8. Our analysis offers new insights into fault geometry and addresses ongoing debates, by proposing a seismotectonic model that reveals the activation of 14 fault segments during the sequence, in contrast to previous oversimplified models that suggested two or three faults. The computed stress field from the inversion of 128 FMs aligns with a tectonic loading force due to the convergence of the African and Eurasian plates. These findings highlight the complexity of the fault network in the study area and shed light on the role of strike-slip faults in shaping the thrust belt. We found a strong link between multiplet groups and fluid movement along the fault network. Analysis of the temporal history of these multiplet groups provides new insights into fluid dynamics timescales, with an estimated hydraulic diffusivity (D) of 0.36 m2 s−1 suggesting a fluid pressure diffusion process. The observed expansion of the aftershock area with the logarithm of time and the existence of repeating earthquakes indicates, for the first time, an aseismic slip mechanism that adds an additional layer to the driven processes. In conclusion, our results suggest that the underlying mechanisms governing the BI-2010 seismic sequence involve a complex interplay of tectonic loading, coseismic stress transfer, fluid dynamics and aseismic slip transients. We attempt to correlate our findings with various studies linking the structure, mechanics and fluid flow properties of fault zones and fault systems. The activation of smaller fault segments potentially averted a larger quake, resulting in three moderate main shocks and numerous aftershocks. This work not only enrich our understanding of seismic phenomena but also provides useful insights for seismic hazard assessment and risk mitigation strategies.

Characterizing the seismic response and basin structure of Cusco (Peru): implications for the seismic hazard assessment of a World Heritage Site

Characterizing the seismic response and basin structure of Cusco (Peru): implications for the seismic hazard assessment of a World Heritage Site

Surface Rupture of the 2008 Mw 6.6 Nura Earthquake: Triggered Flexural‐Slip Faulting in the Pamir‐Tien Shan Collision Zone

AbstractThis study investigates the intricate relationship between earthquake sources and seismogenic surface ruptures in a complex tectonic setting with active faults in the continental collision zone between the southern Tien Shan and the northern Pamir Mountains in Central Asia. The study focuses on the 2008 Mw 6.6 Nura earthquake along the Pamir Frontal Thrust, where the seismogenic surface rupture occurred unexpectedly within the footwall and 10 km away from the source thrust fault. This discrepancy raises questions about the interactions and potential trigger mechanisms between tectonic structures during earthquake rupture. Using unmanned aerial vehicle photography and field inspection, our investigation integrates detailed fault‐zone mapping with tectono‐geomorphic observations to unravel potential interactions between subsurface structures and surface‐deformation phenomena. Our findings suggest that a combination of slip along deep‐seated basement faults and remotely triggered flexural slip within folded Paleogene strata led to surface rupture of overlying Quaternary glacial deposits. Geomorphological and geochronological analyses coupled with systematic displacement measurements furthermore reveal evidence of similar past ruptures within the regional fault system, suggesting a recurrence interval of 1.7 kyr and a Holocene vertical offset rate of 0.4 mm/yr. The analysis of the Nura rupture zone contributes significantly to evaluate linkages between surface and subsurface structures regarding fault‐zone behavior and seismic hazard assessments. Importantly, our results highlight the critical role of on‐site investigations in regions with poorly defined surface ruptures, where misinterpretation may lead to the underestimation of the impact of seismic events and limitations in assessing earthquake history and strain accumulation.

Combining deep neural network and spatio-temporal clustering to automatically assess rockburst and seismic hazard – Case study from Marcel coal mine in Upper Silesian Basin, Poland

Mine induced seismic events are a major safety concern in mining and require careful monitoring and management to reduce their effects. Therefore, an essential step in assessing seismic and rock burst hazards is the analysis of mine seismicity. Recently, deep neural networks have been used to automatically determine seismic wave arrival times, surpassing human performance and allowing their use in seismic data analysis such as seismic event location and seismic energy calculation. In order to properly automate the rockburst and seismic hazard assessment deep neural network phase picker and a spatio-temporal clustering method were utilized. Seismic and rockburst hazards were statistically quantified using two-way contingency tables for two categorical variables: seismic energy level of mine tremors and number of clusters. Correlations between several spatio-temporal clusters and a statistical association between two categorical variables: seismic energy level and cluster number indicate an increase of seismic hazard in the Marcel hard coal mine in Poland. A new automated tool has been elaborated to automatically identify high-stress areas in mines in the form of spatio-temporal clusters.

Mapping 1D seismic amplification effects in the range of periods of engineering interest based on geological data

Regional scale seismic hazard assessment including the effect of local seismo-stratigraphical conditions is a basic tool for seismic risk estimates. A novel physically based procedure is proposed for using geological maps to extensively estimate expected seismic amplification effects relative to spectral ordinates of main engineering interest (<0.8 s). Automatic GIS based analysis of geological maps, statistical data relative to the seismic/geotechnical properties of geological units and numerical modelling are combined to determine the probability distribution of expected amplification effects by accounting for uncertainty affecting the relevant parameters. To evaluate the feasibility of the proposed procedure, it has been applied to the Tuscany Region in Central Italy. Unbiasedness of outcomes has been tested by considering detailed microzonation studies available for the considered area. Results of the proposed approach could be easily implemented in extensive seismic risk analyses where detailed seismic microzonation studies are lacking.

Impact of seismotectonic source zoning and seismic parameter: Sensitivity study on probabilistic seismic hazard assessment

The demarcation of seismic area source zones plays a pivotal role in probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA). In this study, we developed five distinct seismotectonic area source models, integrating large and small areas based on geological, tectonic, and seismological data. Logic tree methodology is utilized in FRISK88M for PSHA. Analysis revealed higher hazards in models with larger area sources compared to those with smaller ones. Hazard deaggregation of seismotectonic model-5 (SM5) is examined and sensitivity analysis of various logic tree nodes is investigated in terms of percent deviation w.r.t mean hazard at various spectral and return periods. The findings underscore that recurrence methods fall into "insensitive level" (≤5%), source mechanism and a-value distribution belong to "low sensitive level" (>5–15%), magnitude distribution lies in "medium sensitive level" (>15–25%), b-value distribution belongs to "high sensitive level" (>25–35%), and ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) and depth distribution falls into "very high sensitive level" (>35%) in relation to seismic hazard.

Limited arc magmatism and seismicity due to extensive mantle wedge serpentinization in the Makran subduction zone

Subduction processes usually involve extensive seismicity and create voluminous magmatic arcs by mantle wedge melting caused by dehydration of the subducting slab, but the Makran subduction zone has anomalously low seismicity and magmatism. Here we explain these anomalous features by 60–65% serpentinization in the peridotitic shallow mantle wedge based on our new integrated seismic, magnetic, gravity and isostatic model across the Makran subduction zone. The low-angle, slow Makran subduction provides ample time for the slab to release sufficient amounts of fluids for creating a large volume of rheologically weak serpentinite. This reduces seismicity by lowering the friction between the slab and surrounding rocks. Further, very little fluid is left in the slab when it reaches the melting depth, which explains the limited arc magmatism. Around 100 km depth, the subduction switches from low-angle to almost vertical. Our model demonstrates the combined effects of subduction rate and dip on mantle serpentinization with implication for assessment of seismic and volcanic hazards in subduction systems.

Seismic amplification of Late Quaternary paleovalley systems: 2D seismic response analysis of the Pescara paleovalley (Central Italy)

Robust site characterization and ground response analysis require a thorough understanding of subsurface features, including geophysical properties and geometries of sediment bodies. Late Quaternary paleovalley systems, often overlooked in seismic hazard assessments, represent a potential threat due to their unconsolidated infill (with shear wave velocities <200 m/s) and sharp contrast with the adjacent substrate. Through an integrated approach that combined geophysical and stratigraphic data, we characterized the subsurface of the Pescara paleovalley system. Geostatistical interpolation of microtremor measurements enabled mapping resonance frequencies, highlighting abrupt changes and delineating the paleovalley boundaries. High-resolution core descriptions were then correlated with resonance frequencies, enabling the reconstruction of a 3D geophysical depth model of the buried paleovalley morphology. Furthermore, analyzing velocity profiles from down-hole tests led to the identification of five main seismic/stratigraphic layers within the valley fill. The geometry and facies architecture were reconstructed through a cross-section transversal to the paleovalley axis and then implemented into a 2D finite element model. Seismic response was computed, revealing significant amplification factors at frequencies closely matching the direct observations. Amplification factors peaked at frequencies between 0.9 and 1.1 Hz in the paleovalley center and up to 5.5 Hz towards the flanks, reaching a factor of 4.6. These findings suggest a notable increase in amplification amplitude compared to simpler geological contexts and emphasize the potential impact on common building types. Response spectra show strong amplifications in the paleovalley system, potentially leading to an underestimation of spectral accelerations compared to NTC18 guidelines. The comparisons of 1D and 2D modeling approaches revealed minimal differences, indicating that the generally flat geometry of the valley may not exhibit clear 2D effects. However, local subsurface stratigraphy strongly influences lateral changes in seismic response, emphasizing the importance of detailed subsurface knowledge for realistic seismic response estimates.

Physics-based probabilistic seismic hazard assessment using synthetic ground motions: application to the stable continental region of India

Physics-based probabilistic seismic hazard assessment using synthetic ground motions: application to the stable continental region of India

Structural inheritance, morphotectonics and Holocene activity of the Cucalón-Pancrudo extensional fault (Iberian Chain, Spain)

A large active extensional fault is characterized, which will contribute to improve seismic hazard assessment in an intraplate region of the Mediterranean domain whose seismic potential until today has been underestimated. The Cucalón-Pancrudo fault (CPF) is a NNW-SSE striking extensional fault that represents the negative (extensional) inversion of a previous, Late Variscan and Paleogene, transpressional fault. It is part of the Río Grío-Pancrudo fault zone, the largest active structure in the intraplate central-eastern Iberian Chain. This study focuses on characterizing the CPF structure, morphotectonics and paleoseismology. The fault offsets a well-known regional planation surface (lower level of the Fundamental Erosion Surface, FES3, 3.5 Ma), providing a basis for calculating the maximum fault throw (c. 280–300 m, including the contribution of a minor synthetic fault and a gentle accommodation monocline), and hence estimating the net slip (c. 305–325 m) and the long-term slip rate (0.09 mm/a). A trench dug in a Holocene fluvial terrace reveals an ensemble of listric, domino-style ruptures synthetic to the main fault. They were activated during at least two paleoseismic events (X, Z), 14.9 ± 1.4 ka and 6.9 ± 0.4 ka in age. An intermediate event (Y), dated to 11.0 ± 1.0 ka, as an uncertainty because the attribution of their ruptures to event Z cannot be ruled out. The total net slip accumulated during these events (1.15–1.25 m) provides an apparent short-term slip rate of 0.07–0.09 mm/a, very similar to the long-term slip rate. Nevertheless, it is very likely that the faults exposed in the surveyed trench do not represent a complete paleoseismic record. Therefore, the actual slip rate during Late Pleistocene-Holocene times could be significantly higher, approaching that reported for most of the recent extensional faults in the central Iberian Chain. The inclusion of CPF in the map of Active Faults of Iberia (QAFI database) will result in improving seismic hazard assessment in Spain.

Characterization of Shallow Sedimentary Layers in the Oran Region Using Ambient Vibration Data

This study investigates the structure of shear-wave velocities (Vs) in the shallow layers of the Oran region, north-west of Algeria, using non-invasive techniques based on ambient vibration arrays. The region has experienced several moderate earthquakes, including the historical Oran earthquake of 1790. Ambient vibration measurements were carried out at 15 sites throughout the study area. Two methods were used: spatial autocorrelation (SPAC) and frequency–wavenumber analysis (f-k), which allowed us to better constrain Rayleigh wave dispersion curves. The inversion of the dispersion curves derived from the f-k analysis allowed for estimating the shear-wave velocity profiles and the Vs30 value at the sites under study. The other important result of the present study is an empirical equation that has been proposed to predict Vs30 in the Oran region. The determination of near-surface shear-wave velocity profiles is an important step in the assessment of seismic hazard. This study has demonstrated the effectiveness of using ambient vibration array techniques to estimate the soil Vs structure.

Neotectonic evolution of the Caucasus: recent vertical movements and mechanism of crustal deformation

It is generally recognized that the formation of the fold-and-thrust tectonic structures of mobile belts on continents is associated with crushing and narrowing of the Earth’s crust as a result of collision of lithospheric plates. The deformation of the Caucasian lithosphere in the neotectonic time is generally consistent with these ideas. However, the block differentiation of the Caucasian lithosphere introduces specific features in the directivity of modern vertical and horizontal movements. In this paper, we analyze vertical movements of the Caucasus estimated by means of high-precision leveling over more than a century and consider their spatial correlation with tectonics, seismicity, stress-strain state, and geophysical fields. A clear relationship indicating the deep tectonic nature of the long-term uplifting of the Caucasus crust is revealed. Due to the differentiation of the Arabian plate movement, the territory of the Caucasus is divided into provinces that differ from each other in the pattern of modern movements, in the orientation of faults, and in the stress-strain state. The seismic regime in these provinces also has differences in the number of seismic events and focal mechanisms of the earthquakes. We propose a model of the deformation mechanism of the Greater Caucasus, which takes into account the long-term trend of the Caucasus uplifting in the conditions of general shortening of the Earth’s crust. The results of the analysis are used as a basis for discussion of a probable mechanism of tectonic evolution of the Greater Caucasus in the neotectonic time, which can be used in the assessment of seismic hazard in the North Caucasus.