SEE Countries Research Articles

CURRENT ACCOUNT DETERMINANTS IN SOUTHEAST EUROPEAN (SEE) COUNTRIES – PANEL APPROACH

The aim of this paper is to examine the relation between the current account balance and its determinants for a sample of 9 SEE countries (Bulgaria, Croatia, Romania, Moldova, Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Macedonia, Montenegro, and Albania) over the period from 2000 to 2015. After we had established the existence of panel cointegration in the sample, we estimated cointegration equations using FMOLS and DOLS estimator. The results show that real effective exchange rate appreciation had an adverse effect on the current account, while the net inflow of direct foreign investments has a positive impact, as private remittances. The survey also confirmed that the current account deficit in the SEE countries is persistent. The results indicate that the structural changes in the SEE countries should be carried out in order to reduce the CA deficit. Also, the appreciation of the national currency should be avoided, since it will lead to an increase in the CA deficit.

THE ABSORPTION CAPACITIES OF SOUTHEAST EUROPEAN COUNTRIES IN THE USE OF EU FUNDS

Membership in the European Union is the aspiration of the most European countries, especially the underdeveloped and politically still unstable, former socialist countries. Those countries strives to find economic prosperity and political stability in the EU, despite many constraints of economic and political nature. In order to help solve the problem and ensure the more successful adaptation the EU has created special financial instruments to assist candidate countries, where each country is responsible for its own progress and withdrawal of available funds. This work will search all important determinants of use of EU Pre-Accession Funds in SEE countries taking into account features and specifics of each program, as well as problems these countries are facing with. The main purpose and aim of this paper is to explore the absorption capacities of candidate countries and potential candidate countries of SEE in withdrawing funds from EU pre-accession funds. Bearing in mind the political and economic specificities, special attention will be given to its absorption capacities and the possibilities for their improvement in the existing institutional and economic framework.

ARDL panel estimation of stock market indices and macroeconomic environment of CEE and SEE countries in the last decade of transition

We tested the hypothesis of the procyclicality of stock exchanges regarding the economic activity of CEE and SEE countries, to measure the level of financial integration during the last decade of the transition period, and to compare these two groups of emerging countries. Our ARDL panel estimates support the hypothesis of procyclicality in the transition period in the CEE and SEE regions, and further financial integration, due to the opening up of the market economy and repricing of systematic risk, followed by large capital inflows, trade liberalization and industrial production, along with the implementation of institutional reforms regarding EU integration. In addition, the significant positive coefficient of capital inflows and negative coefficient of unemployment rate in the CEE and SEE panel ARDL results confirm the volatility of the transition process, as is obvious in higher industrial production, followed by the significant impact of import on CEE countries and the much higher significant impact of export on SEE countries.

Modelling of Institutional Changes in Transition Countries - the Gap Between the Theory and Practice

The first part discusses the consequences of the deficit of real institutional changes in post-socialist SEE countries, and their substitutions by the various anti-developmental institutional imitations, which essentially had the character of alternative quasi-institutions and were in a function of enrichment for the privileged individuals. It points to the importance of neo-institutional economic theories (NET), which provide a sound grounds and recommendations for explanation of the imitation changes, which had anti-institutional and anti-development character.

The Recovery Factors and the Gold Reserves South-East European and Black Sea Economic Cooperation Countries Comparative Analyses and Evaluation (2006-2015)

The aim of this report is to provide a critical analysis of the economic development trends of ten selected SEE and BSEC countries in terms of identification of key factors supporting GDP growth and post-crisis recovery. The paper is structured in three parts. The first part presents a comparative monitoring analysis of the trends in the import and export flows for the period 2006-2015 in the selected SEE and the BSEC countries. The second part presents GDP growth rate models of the selected SEE and the BSEC countries in terms of the level of openness of their economies and the dynamics of their export and import flows (single and multiple regressions). The final, third part focused on the “gold anchor” as a re-stabilization factor, included in the national reserve assets and its price dynamics on the market of precious metals.

ПРОМЫШЛЕННОСТЬ СТРАН ЦВЕ И ЮВЕ В 1990–2015 гг.

The structural transformation of industry in CEE and SEE countries is influenced by several internal and external factors, both general and specific. Problems of production sector rationalization are caused by many reasons, in particular, by the mismatch of demand and supply of long-term capital, the lack of skilled labor and the dissimilarities in the technological level. The institutional harmonization in the frames of integration process and FDI attraction have contributed to formation of diversified and externally oriented production complexes that have significant impact on the industrial macro-, meso- and microstructure. The dependence on foreign economic conjuncture carries certain risks, especially if domestic and foreign enterprises are characterized by disparity in the level of productivity. The leading recipients of FDI eventually become the intermediate tier of production externalization. This fact underlines the necessity of incorporation of local companies in the TNCs’ value chains in order to limit the pace of relocation. The high level of external openness contributes to technological modernization and increases the competitiveness of knowledge-intensive industries. However, in the region under review the national R&D is almost not commercialized, so closer cooperation between the industrial companies using local research and educational potential is needed. Among territorial disparities in industrial development one can mention the predominant role of capital cities and resistant backwardness of periphery areas losing its economic competitiveness. The production shift to economic centers with the best combination of production factors is accompanied by the increase of agglomeration effect of the new growth poles, mainly represented by industrial parks and free trade zones. Entrepreneurial activity in the border regions of the most economically developed countries triggers the further progress of integration processes, in particular, the formation of the first trans-border industrial clusters and complexes.&nbsp

Ownership transformation of the banking sector in SEE countries

Ownership transformation of the banking sector in SEE countries

SOUTHEAST EUROPE IN THE NEW GEOPOLITICAL CONTEXT

Against the background of tensions and destabilizing processes in different parts of the world a global geopolitical reshuffling is taking place. A new redistribution of economic and political power within the international system is in progress. There are changing roles of the major actors on the global scene, the emergence of new centers of power and new alliances. The paper is aimed at analyzing the strategic and geopolitical importance of the Southeast European region for the major actors in the international system in the new geopolitical situation. In the context of the growing instability at the global and regional level and the renewed rivalry for influence and resources as well as in the context of the Ukrainian crisis and the developments in the Middle East, the SEE region is getting out of the geopolitical shadow and is back to the global chessboard as a particular geopolitical and geoeconomic zone. The European Union, the United States, Russia but also China has different, often conflicting, interests in the region. All SEE countries (EU members and non-members) bind their future to the European Union. Still, there is an erosion of the hegemony of the European project itself. After a period of a relative disengagement from the region, the United States is putting back the region in the center of the US geopolitical attention. Russia – counting on the historic, cultural and political ties with the peoples in Southeast Europe - tries to further expand its economic and political influence in the region. China is the new actor in Southeast Europe. Chinese pro-active policy in this part of Europe is an integral component of “One Belt, One road” strategy, part of the strategic game of Beijing on the international chessboard aimed at gradually remodeling the existing world order. The increased interest of the major powers towards the region adds further dynamism to the processes in the region itself. Any further intensification of the geopolitical rivalry between the great powers in the region could trigger new process of destabilization and fragmentation. Keywords : Southeast Europe, geopolitical rivalry, global redistribution of power

The level of the shadow economy, tax evasion and corruption: The empirical evidence for SEE countries

Abstract Economic theory and practice of developed countries have shown that the good functioning of market economies requires the existence of stable institutions that are effective in the application of legal rules as a precondition for the proper functioning of the economic and fiscal system. In the process of building a market economy in Southeast European countries, along with the sector of legal economy there coexists a large sector of shadow economy, tax evasion and high levels of corruption. Analyses made by many authors and relevant national and international institutions estimate that the amount of the shadow economy, tax evasion and corruption in the analyzed countries despite a declining trend in the last decade continues to be at the level of 25-50% compared with the legal sector of the economy. The author aims through a comparative approach to analyze the level of the shadow economy, tax evasion and corruption in the economies of Southeast Europe and provides some recommendations for governments to overcome these negative phenomena.

A comparative analysis of development in Southeast European countries

There are different kinds of indicators which measure levels of development. The use of varying methods could alter the ranking of a particular country. In this paper, Southeast European countries are ranked according to the World Bank, the UNDP and the I-distance method. The aim of the paper is to provide a comparison between the ranking results obtained with those methods for the period 2007–2012. The principal objective of the study is the ranking of SEE countries using the I-distance technique – a multivariate statistical method for ranking entities – and to discover whether this method gives a better ranking of countries than income per capita and the HDI. To answer this question, similar variables of economic development are used within the research methods. Due to the observed period, some government finance variables are also included. Despite certain limitations, such as lack of data for SEE countries, the results show that the ranks of countries are highly similar regardless of the method used. Nevertheless, there are some differences in the countries’ rankings in some years: there are small differences from year to year both in terms of HDI and GNI per capita. However, the I-distance method shows greater differences between countries.

Corruption and Bribery on Transition Economies: Case Study for SEE Countries

In this research paper is analyzed corruption and bribery on transition economies with case study of SEE countries and the main theoretical arguments for discussions are as following: the effect of corruption in economic growth, mobilization of different countries or institutions against corruption (prevent corruption through institutional policies and anti - corruption programs), the level of corruption in SEE countries, effect of corruption in public sector and in economic efficiency. In methodology, the secondary data that used are collected from international institutions and they are calculated through STATA program. The main analyses are descriptive statistic, OLS method of regression and correlation matrix. The variables that are used in research paper are: corruption and bribery & bureaucracy costs (as dependent variable), then economic growth, political stability, economic freedom, transition reforms and education index (as independent variables). Based on empirical results, in the OLS analysis is found that corruption has positive impact on economic growth but bribery and has negative impact on economic growth of SEE countries then in T-statistic analysis all independent variables have shown negative significance (T DOI: 10.5901/ajis.2015.v4n2p45

Democratization Through Enlargement: A Comparative Study of Bosnia and Herzegovina and Kosovo

After more than 20 years of transitory journey for former-communist countries of Western Balkans, democratization still face challenges to implement or/and consolidate. Some of them share post-conflict experience and lack economic and political resources. The main challenge is faced on the enforcement of the rule of law which has a direct influence on the enhancement of the civil liberties within each country. Insofar taking into consideration the EU engagement in the region I will ask how does the Enlargement process, through political conditionality, influence the enhancing of democratization in Bosnia and Herzegovina and Kosovo? I answer the following question through this argument that, although EU strength coercive pressure through Conditionality regarding the enforcement of Rule of Law and enhance of civil liberties, democratization in post-conflict countries of SEE, stagnate. In this paper, first I analyze a background of democratization, from the EU enlargement perspective. Than on the second part I analyze the EU conditionality toward the enforcement of the rule of law and enhance of civil liberties on the two case studies. In the third part, a comparative analysis between the cases will prove the above assumption that this paper argue. DOI: 10.5901/mjss.2015.v6n4s1p467

Innovative Valuing of the Cultural Heritage Assets. Economic Implication on Local Employability, Small Entrepreneurship Development and Social Inclusion

Local development based on innovative entrepreneurship forms represents one of the niche opportunities for economic recovery. This approach is more adequate for a new EU member state with lower level of economic development and an unequal valuing of local potential for growth, like Romania. Local development in generally less developed areas is facing the challenge of being innovative, promoting a business model based on cooperation between stakeholders and public-private partnership. Digital technologies and social media are having a big impact, with a wide variety of economic, social and cultural activities. The old model of cultural consumption is no longer attractive as we have many possibilities for getting information about heritage assets without on-site visit. Therefore, there is a new and increasing segment of demand for cultural consumption–for active persons willing to get information, knowledge and to interact emotional and cognitive with visited places. In digital era, young people have the best expertise to explore the online world and to come with new and successful business ideas, to support new consumption with ITC devices. Therefore, the present challenge is to create incentives for participatory on-site cultural consumption as recreational learning, based on new cognitive content, on innovative comparison or association of the old and new information about heritage assets. Based on human cognitive architecture, the authors developed a qualitative research on supply-side of the cultural heritage innovative products by empower the consumption model based on participation and increasing cognitive-emotional accessibility. The main results of the survey, conducted in cultural areas from seven SEE countries, were analysed from the perspective of local integrated business development based on specific employment and entrepreneurship profile.

Cultural Heritage Entrepreneurship (CHE) – Challenges and Difficulties

The research analyses the situation of Cultural Heritage Entrepreneurship (CHE) in SEE countries participating in Sagittarius Project (EU-7). A special attention is payed to the problem of CHE contribution to economic recovery and re launching sustainable development taking into considerations challenges and barriers related to: lack of financial sources; access to market and innovation; intellectual property rights; education and training. An intercountry comparison of CHE characteristics and at the EU-7 and EU-27 levels reveals a series of difficulties and shortcomings for the case of Sagittarius countries in the period 2009-2012.

The role of human resources on the economy: A study of the Balkan EU member states

In this paper we analyze the impact of the quality of human capital on the main economic indicators of South-Eastern Europe countries [SEE] at the NUTS 2 level. The subjects of this research are the human capital indicators of regional competitiveness. The quality of human capital depends largely on the age structure of the population and the quality of education. Those regions, which have the highest percentage of the working-age population and highly educated people, are able to achieve higher productivity and gain a competitive advantage over other regions. As main indicators of the quality of human capital we identified: population; persons aged 25-64 with tertiary education attainment; students in tertiary education and participation of adults aged 25-64 in education and training and human resources in science and technology. As main economic indicators, we identified: regional gross domestic product; employment and income of households. The aim of this paper is to determine whether there is a correlation between the indicators of the quality of human capital and economic indicators. As a main methodology we have used the correlation coefficient which shows interdependence of the analyzed indicators. As part of our analysis, we consider only EU member states that belong to the SEE countries: Slovenia, Croatia, Romania, Bulgaria and Greece. We conclude that in all countries there is a high multiple correlation coefficient between the indicators human resources in science and technology, number of students and employment.

Macroeconomic and Institutional Determinants of Non-performing Loans

Abstract This paper aims to analyse macroeconomic and institutional empirical determinants of growth of NPL ratios. Research is focused on selected CEEC and SEE countries in the period 2006- 2013. For our analysis we use static panel model approach with the logarithm of share of NPLs to total loans as a dependent variable. As independent variables we used a combination of country-specific macroeconomic and financial indicators which are commonly used in reference literature, as well as relevant institutional variables. Our results show that there is a negative relationship between increases in GDP and rise of the NPL ratio. Along with GDP, foreign currency loans ratio and level of exchange rate are positively related with the increase of NPL ratio. This confirms the expectation that countries where domestic currency is not the main medium of credit placements will have larger problems with the level of NPLs, which is even more pronounced in periods of domestic currency depreciation. In the presented models, the inflation rate is reported as statistically insignificant for sample countries. In the group of institutional variables, only financial market level of development is reported as statistically significant in relation to the level of NPL - with a more developed financial market the level of NPLs should be lower.

To what extent does Croatia really cooperate with SEE countries in the fields of foreign trade, direct investment and tourism?

The aim of this research is to gain new insights into the extent of economic cooperation between Croatia and countries in the region. We also aim to find out which countries and economic sectors cooperate the most and to establish whether there is a trend to their economic cooperation. The research methodology is based on the construction and implementation of a harmonised cooperation index (HCI), with data on economic cooperation in foreign trade, foreign direct investment and tourism among the countries in the region serving as a basis for index calculation. The article introduces a harmonised index of cooperation for post-transition countries, using a broader base than is traditionally found in the literature. Research results show that the greatest cooperation progress has been achieved in foreign trade, while the potential in two other sectors has not yet been sufficiently exploited.

Labor Reforms in SEE Countries and Recovering from the Crisis

Abstract Since 2009, South Eastern European states are confronted with the most dramatic recession throughout Europe. As the 2008 global financial crisis turned to sovereign debt crisis in the EU, the vulnerable economies of the SEE periphery became recipients of IMF loans (granted to a total of sixteen European countries) to tackle the impact of the downturn. In the Balkan region, Greece – a member of the Eurozone - has been receiving financial support from the IMF/EC/ECB troika since May 2010; Serbia and Romania have also borrowed from the IMF; while Bulgaria, also as vulnerable but poorer than Romania, postponed such a deal due to its smaller budget deficit. The loans - either by the IMF or in collaboration with European institutions - were granted under conditional terms of austerity and structural adjustment policies, which imposed public expenditures cuts, anti-protectionism reforms, more labor market flexibilization and national assets’ privatization. Those conditional policies of restructuring towards liberalization ‘promised’ more FDI-favorable conditions, higher employability and thus, growth. However, the suppression of welfare and social security expenditures, the reduction of public and private sector wages, and the promoted labor market reforms have so far deepened recession, accentuated unemployment and decreased social and living standards in all loan-recipient countries. The anticipated recovery from the crisis appears to be uneven and underlines the fragility of the EU. In this context, there is growing concern for the effectiveness of the implemented structural reforms, especially in the vulnerable SEE periphery of Europe. We focus on the Balkan EU-member states of Greece, Romania and Bulgaria, to explore the effect of the memoranda-imposed labor market re/deregulation on their economies. We find that despite the different characteristics of the crisis in these countries, high unemployment is persisting, employment precariousness and risk of in-work poverty is increasing, and their capacity for economic recovery is deteriorating.

The importance of corporate taxation for FDI attractiveness of southeast European countries

The aim of this paper is to research the determinants of FDI inflows in the SEE region with a special emphasis on corporate tax rates. The panel data analysis (GMM methodology) was conducted on six countries in the period 2000-2011 in two versions: as gravity model based on bilateral FDI inflows and on the total FDI inflows (and inward stock). The results pointed the most important determinants for attracting FDI in SEE countries are market size (population), growth rates, GDP per capita, and wages. Institutional variables and corporate tax rates were not significant in the analysis of flows, but they become significant in the analysis of FDI inward stock.

IZOSTANAK POLITIČARKI U PLAĆENOM OGLAŠAVANJU, PREDIZBORNI TV SPOT, SRBIJA 2012. I 2014

Cilj rada je da dekonstruiše strategije političkih partija iz rodne perspective u odnosu natelevizijsko predizborno političko plaćeno oglašavanje u kampanjama 2012. i 2014. u Srbiji.Cilj je takođe da se analizira lično iskustvo političarki da bi se na nov i drugačiji način analizirale prakse i strategije partija u odnosu na vidljivost kandidatkinja u vreme predizborne kampanjeu medijima. Metode korišćene u istraživanju su: kritička analiza medijskog diskursa(jedinica analize je tv spot u celini, verbalna, vizuelna i zvučna komponenta), komparativnametoda i životne priče kandidatkinja. Osnovna hipoteza je da bez obzira na to što su, shodnozakonskim odredbama, na kandidatskim listama, u oba analizirana izborna ciklusa, ženezauzimale svako treće mesto – one su podzastupljene u plaćenom političkom medijskom reklamiranju(TV spotu). Osnovni rezultat je da su medijske plaćene kampanje bile maskulinizirane.U fokusu je samo partijski lider. Kandidatkinje su podzastupljene u oba posmatranaperioda. Partije nisu rodno senzibilisane kada je reč o političkom plaćenom oglašavanju uvreme predizborne kampanje.