Security Treaty Research Articles

О ПРИОРИТЕТНЫХ НАПРАВЛЕНИЯХ И ЗАДАЧАХ МОДЕЛЬНОГО ЗАКОНОТВОРЧЕСТВА В ОРГАНИЗАЦИИ ДОГОВОРА О КОЛЛЕКТИВНОЙ БЕЗОПАСНОСТИ НА 2025–2030 гг.

Based on the analysis of the forecast characteristics of the military-political situation in the field of ensuring national and collective security of the member states of the Collective Security Treaty Organization, proposals for the development of model acts of the Collective Security Treaty Organization for 2026–2030 are formulated. The results of the analysis allowed the author to substantiate practical recommendations for improving the quality of information, scientific, methodological and expert-analytical support for model lawmaking in the Collective Security Treaty Organization.

ОБЕСПЕЧЕНИЕ ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКОЙ БЕЗОПАСНОСТИ: ВОЗМОЖНОСТИ МОДЕЛЬНОГО ЗАКОНОДАТЕЛЬСТВА ПАРЛАМЕНТСКОЙ АССАМБЛЕИ ОРГАНИЗАЦИИ ДОГОВОРА О КОЛЛЕКТИВНОЙ БЕЗОПАСНОСТИ

In the context of modern challenges and threats caused primarily by the Russian Federation conducting a special military operation to demilitarize and denazify Ukraine and, as a result, unprecedented sanctions of the collective West against the Russian Federation and the Republic of Belarus, it is important to use the capabilities of the model legislation of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Collective Security Treaty Organization in relation to issues of ensuring economic security. The purpose of the legislative activity of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Collective Security Treaty Organization in this area is to develop effective mechanisms to prevent new challenges and threats to collective security. Currently, the scientific discussion undertaken by the author of the article on the issues of ensuring economic security is important for the development of modern scientific concepts and forecasts. The scientific article can be used by representatives of public authorities, as well as employees, graduate students, applicants and students of higher educational institutions in their research and educational activities.

A new chapter in EU–UK relations

With new administrations taking office in both Brussels and London, a reset in relations between the European Union and the United Kingdom is likely, with incremental improvements to follow. During the 2024 UK general election, Labour campaigned for an ‘improved and ambitious relationship’ with Europe, pledging to enhance the Trade and Cooperation Agreement, negotiate a new security pact with the EU and build stronger bilateral relations with key EU nations.

Mapping Tokyo Olympics 3.0: archaeologies of the future

ABSTRACT Mapping Tokyo Olympics 3.0 is a collaborative sensory archive of demolition and displacement surrounding the three Tokyo Olympics. Understanding the Olympics as a cyclical `practice of subtraction,' where the city is not only rebuilt but unbuilt, we uncover the intertwined layers of the urban development history of these Games and the imperial (1940), high-growth (1964) and post-growth (2020/2021) periods in which they have occurred. Cancelled due to World War II, the first Tokyo Olympics were a phantom event; the second was held in the wake of massive protests against the US-Japan Security Treaty; and the third was postponed and hobbled by the global pandemic amid lingering fears caused by the Fukushima nuclear disaster. Each iteration of the Games has imposed physical effects on the urban landscape of Tokyo with the displacement of vulnerable and precarious persons as a consequence. Mapping the politics of demolition and displacement with the tools of hybrid spatial-sensory ethnography and using intermedial approaches, Mapping Tokyo Olympics 3.0 is a sensory archive of the lived experience of those displacements. Incorporating local knowledge and collaborative research-creation methodologies, we uncover layers of time, history and materiality to embrace contingencies and envision social futures. The sensory mapping archive becomes an archaeology of the future.

СУЩНОСТЬ, ЦЕЛИ И ЗАДАЧИ ИНФОРМАЦИОННОГО ОБЕСПЕЧЕНИЯ МЕЖДУНАРОДНОЙ АНТИНАРКОТИЧЕСКОЙ ДЕЯТЕЛЬНОСТИ

The article presents the results of a study of the basic concepts of information support for international anti-drug activities, including those implemented by Russia in the format of the Collective Se-curity Treaty Organization (CSTO). The main channels of communication of the CSTO, their orienttion, specifics in the presentation of content, the level of coverage of target audiences, as well as their goals, objectives and essence are considered. The nature and orientation of the above-mentioned concepts and their interrelation are revealed

Directions for improving the activities of the collective security treaty organization in the fi eld of information security

The geopolitical shifts and transformations that have taken place over the past decades, the formation of a unipolar world and its subsequent stagnation, have had a serious impact on the formation of the geopolitical situation in the Eurasian region, in fact turning it into a place of collision between the interests of the United States and its allies and the emerging poles of the new world order. One of these poles is the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), which makes a significant contribution to stability in the region. The United States, together with its allies, is not abandoning its attempts to destabilize the emerging security architecture using various methods of hybrid confrontation. With the expanding availability of the Internet and the development of information and communication technologies, the number of challenges and threats in the fi eld of information security has increased dramatically. The article presents an attempt at a systematic assessment of the CSTO's activities in this area, and presents proposals for further improvement of the CSTO's activities in the field of information security, as well as for increasing resistance to acts of hybrid aggression.

The development of AUKUS in the Indo-Pacific region and its influence on Indonesia’s policy as a global maritime fulcrum

The trilateral defense and security pact between Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States has strong impact to the security dynamics in the Indo-Pacific area. This agreement entails a strengthened alliance between Australia and enhanced military collaboration with the United States and the United Kingdom resulting in regional volatility. This paper aims to examine the AUKUS (Australia–United Kingdom–United States Partnership) agreement and the resulting ensuing instability in the Indo-Pacific region, specifically from Indonesia’s perspective. The focus of the research is on the interplay between Indonesia’s diplomacy capability and the military functions of the Indonesian Navy as security policy. This study employs a qualitative approach to delve into in-depth insights into the evolution of AUKUS in the Indo-Pacific region, which triggered a series of responses from many countries subsequent to the announcement of the establishment of the AUKUS Defense Pact. The AUKUS establishment simply reinforces the notion that geopolitical tensions are pulling the area apart. The influence of the AUKUS-China war can jeopardize regional stability since the US and China continuously demonstrate the supremacy of their armaments in order to dissuade one another. The AUKUS-China contest has had a highly adverse impact on Indonesia. This article argues that the Indonesian Navy’s diplomatic prowess is crucial because it has the potential to play a big influence in the Indo-Pacific region’s international political dynamics concerning the South China Sea. Furthermore, the Indonesian Navy must proactively prepare for potential armed conflicts in Indonesian territorial seas by developing a comprehensive maritime policy during times of peace, leveraging its geographical advantages.

Navigating the Pacific: Solomon Islands Attempt to Gain Influence in the Middle of China-US Rivalry

The Pacific Islands Region is in the spotlight due to rising tensions between China and the U.S. This situation has escalated with China offering security pacts to Pacific Islands states in 2022. Despite most Pacific states rejecting the offer, the Solomon Islands, as the only country to accept it, caused concern for the U.S. and its allies. Considering that the Solomon Islands lack the traditional power to support their decision to align with China against the U.S. and its allies, it is an intriguing issue to delve into. This research aims to analyze the phenomenon by using qualitative-descriptive methods and the concept of Small States. This will give us a new way to understand how small states in the Pacific Ocean maneuver amidst the US-China rivalry by analyzing strategic indicators they can utilize rather than solely focusing on domestic circumstances to comprehend their decisions. We found that the Solomon Islands' ability to take such a risk stems from two sources of power: particular-intrinsic and derivative power. Intrinsically, the Solomon Islands hold geopolitical importance, being strategically crucial for both China's Belt and Road initiative and the U.S.'s attempt to retain its regional influence. Derivatively, the Solomon Islands' sole position to accept the security pact is highly valued by China. This will lead to a mutually beneficial relationship among them, and the Solomon Islands can benefit in security and economic terms. This research sheds light on how a small state navigates its interest in the epicenter of rivalry between two great powers.Keywords: China-US rivalry; Pacific Islands Region; small states; Solomon Islands

Prospects for interaction between the shanghai cooperation organization and the collective security treaty organization

The article evaluates the prospects for interaction between the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and the Collective Security Treaty Organization. Based on a descriptive and explanatory analysis of their common interests and tasks in the field of ensuring security and stability in the region, the authors come to the conclusion that issues of cooperation between the two associations seem to be more of a formal side of the issue, which in practical terms has already been largely resolved through active bilateral contacts and joint military exercises, which only emphasizes the importance of developing this format in the future.

Russia’s Central Asian Security Policy in the Putin Era: Tools for Intervention and Control “We do not want a second Afghanistan in Central Asia. Therefore, we will follow a very careful policy.” Vladimir Putin

Central Asia has been a strategically important region that Russia has dominated or always wanted to dominate throughout history. Therefore, we can see this in the Soviet Union period or in Russia’s policies after the 1990s. Especially after 2000, with Vladimir Putin becoming the President of Russia, policies on this region gained vitality in every field. One of the most important of these dimensions is the military dimension. In this context, we can cite the Collective Security Treaty Organization and Shanghai Cooperation Organization, which was formed with the participation of other states related to the region within the scope of developing relations with Russia, Central Asia, and which it is trying to be effective. On the other hand, we can see that Russia is trying to extend the terms of use of the military bases left from the Soviet Union in the region and to establish new military bases. Therefore, we can evaluate all these approaches of Russia within the scope of its unwillingness to lose its influence and power in the region and its unwillingness to allow ‘foreign’ forces to intervene in the region.

СОЦИАЛЬНАЯ ГАЗИФИКАЦИЯ ПОМОГАЕТ ПРЕОДОЛЕВАТЬ ТРУДНЫЕ ВРЕМЕНА ТОПЛИВНО-ЭНЕРГЕТИЧЕСКОГО КОМПЛЕКСА СТРАНЫ

The material of the proposed article seems to the authors to be extremely relevant in connection with the 12 packages adopted by the Western community against Russia, containing more than 17 thousand of all kinds of sanctions and restrictions, including in relation to the export of hydrocarbons. This circumstance has put the domestic economy in an extremely difficult situation, especially in the context of the restoration of the country's national economy. Reorientation of the oil and gas industry to the East, to the countries of Greater Eurasia, year-round transport and industrial development of the Northern Sea Route and the Arctic zone of Russia will not only overcome the problems and difficulties that have arisen, but also strengthen political and economic ties with the states of the Silk Road and the Organization of the Collective Security Treaty (CSTO). The purpose of the study is a comprehensive economic assessment of the implementation of state regional development programs based on the use of hydrocarbon raw materials, including the social gasification/additional gasification program in the constituent entities of the Federation, to which the President paid special attention in his Address to the Federal Assembly 2024. A separate task is to forecast industrial production based on processing of hydrocarbon raw materials at various stages of technological conversion into lines of consumer goods and into products intended for export. The research results obtained so far by the authors of the article boil down to a review of information sources on the identified problems, an analysis of individual issues of the dynamics of production, export supplies, transportation and pricing of domestic hydrocarbon raw materials,and to determining the success of the implementation of the gasification program in individual regions of the Federation. The conceptual approaches involved were discussed. The article concludes with three conclusions.

Prospects for the Integration of China and the CSTO

Modern challenges, packages of European and American sanctions, and a special military operation in Ukraine have contributed to Russia’s reorientation to the East, not only in trade, economic and energy terms. The issue of military-political cooperation, in particular, between the countries of the Collective Security Treaty Organization and the People’s Republic of China has acquired particular relevance. The coherence of their actions both in the direction of “CSTO + 1” and “CSTO + Shanghai Cooperation Organization” contributed to the development of interaction, a new round in the development of the CSTO, although some of its participants declare the possibility of leaving the Treaty (Armenia). But there are also countries that are ready to take a more active part in its work (Syria, North Korea). At the same time, none of the CSTO countries sent their military contingents to support the Russian army in the Northern Military District.The Central Asian region occupies a special place in the system of relations between the CSTO and China: for example, the peacekeeping operation of the CSTO countries in Kazakhstan in January 2022 attracted the close attention of the Chinese authorities, which once again demonstrated their interest in regional stability. In the context of American pressure on China, its authorities have repeatedly spoken positively about jointly countering such challenges as terrorism, separatism and extremism (“three evils”).The purpose of this work is to assess the prospects for cooperation in the field of countering the “three evils”. To achieve this goal, the authors use the comparative analysis method and SWOT assessment. The authors come to the concluson that since the CSTO countries and China face similar challenges, there is a possibility of situational involvement of China in the military operations of the CSTO. Therefore, a broader consideration of the “linkage” between the CSTO and the SCO is required.

Climate, nuclear weapons control and cyber threats: three problems or one?

The article analyzes a set of problems related to the mutual influence of three global challenges ofour time, which will determine the configuration of modern society in the medium and long term: climate change, nuclear arms control and cyber threats. The study reveals the role of each of the components and the prospects for their transformation for Russia, the United States and European states. Priority scenarios of state policy within the framework of nuclear deterrence and information security are substantiated. The experience of recent decades reveals that the rejection of security treaties, as a rule, weakens the security of States, rather than strengthens it. Thus, in the course of the study, strategic objectives, the content side and policy options of the Russian Federation in the current international situation were considered, conclusions were drawn regarding the optimality of the chosen strategies for interaction with European partners in the field of arms control, the climate agenda and cyber threats. The authors conclude that it is necessary to create a new generation security architecture through informal consultations on strategic stability, which determine the negotiation plan to be discussed at official negotiations between Russia and the United States. In addition, the authors prove that in the foreseeable future, climate change will have a negative impact on the activities of armies and increase the frequency of their deployment in crisis situations. For this reason, competitive advantages in the defense sector will be determined by the ability of the command to adapt to climate change,reduce damage to military infrastructure and minimise the risks of resource losses due to natural disasters and extreme weather conditions.

THE BEAR, THE EAGLE, AND THE FALCON: RUSSIA, AMERICA, AND THE UNITED ARAB EMIRATES IN A TIME OF GREAT POWER RIVALRY

Relations between the Russian Federation and the United Arab Emirates have evolved over the past decade into a strategic partnership owing to a seeming congruence of Russian and Emirati strategies across theatres in the Middle East, combined with the UAE’s intention to unofficially engage in “hedging” against the backdrop of the Russo-Ukrainian War. This article explores the reasons why the UAE has recalibrated its orientation vis-à-vis the United States, with an emphasis on how its leadership has worked to enhance ties with Moscow during a time of Great Power rivalry. From the UAE’s perspective, hedging constitutes the bedrock of a sound foreign policy focus. However, this article posits that Abu Dhabi also needs to appreciate the costs of adhering to a hedging agenda, especially when the Israel-Hamas War and tensions in Iraq, Syria, Iran, Lebanon, and the Red Sea could trigger a wider war. Although the United States and UAE harbour disagreements, the two states can still try to revise their divergent trajectories. Yet it remains unclear as to whether the contours of the USA-UAE strategic partnership can somehow be improved upon at this time. Alas, much depends on whether Washington and Abu Dhabi can find common ground on issues such as resuming a stalled deal to supply F-35 fighter jets; the possible brokering of a settlement between Israel and Palestine; the potential formation of a more robust security pact; and the UAE’s role in assisting the United States in countering Iran and its proxies’ nefarious activities.

Explaining sender–receiver gaps in signalling: Australia’s ‘Pacific Step-up’ and Solomon Islands’ multi-alignment

Amid growing strategic competition, regional powers have intensified their engagement with Pacific Island Countries. This article examines Australia’s ‘Pacific Step-up’, a signature foreign policy initiative of the Scott Morrison government (2018–2022), from a signalling perspective. Through the Step-up, Australia sought to affirm its resolve to be partner of choice for Pacific Island Countries. This was not cheap talk but led Canberra to invest substantially in its ties with the region. Despite this and significant prior Australian engagement leading to a bilateral security pact, Solomon Islands’ government signed an additional security agreement with China in 2022. How can we explain this sender–receiver gap? I argue that close attention to the agency of domestic actors on the receiver side and the context in which such agency occurs – in this case, an extended history of insecurity in the Pacific country – provides us with analytical leverage when examining concrete instances of signalling.

The China-US Economic Relationship in the Early 21st Century

China and the United States are two major economic powers that are currently engaged in trade and are using different strategies to enhance their bilateral relations. The main objective of this research is to analyze the policies and activities that these nations are using to promote and advance their trade relations, which will likely result in financial and political benefits in the long run. This investigation is primarily based on secondary sources such as scientific and scholarly journals, research papers, books, and articles related to the topic at hand. The study comprehensively explores a variety of factors impacting trade relations between China and the United States. This includes examining bilateral treaties, one-phase agreements, the Belt and Road Initiative, the Australia, UK, and US Security Pact, policies aimed at achieving competitive advantage, as well as cooperation in addressing regional and global issues to promote trade relations between the two countries. The trade conflict between the two countries is very serious. According to the study, China and the US pursue many comprehensive and conventional barriers, such as a lack of registered goods in each nation, a rise in trade imbalance, tax disparities, a lack of business ties, the Quad, the conflict in the South China Sea, bilaterally sensitive issues, the Taiwan dispute, and environmental conditions and policies. If both countries could solve these problems then relations between the two countries would be improved in the 21st century.

Current Approaches to Improving Consensus Decision-Making Mechanisms in International Regional Organizations

This study is aimed to study a key element of the activity of any international organization — the problem of consensus decision-making and the corresponding practice of solving it both in integration bodies (Eurasian Economic Union, European Union) and in interstate organizations devoid of a supranational component (Shanghai Cooperation Organization, North Atlantic Treaty Organization treaty, Collective Security Treaty Organization).Aim. Identify current approaches to improving the application of the rule of consensus in interstate (intergovernmental) structures and their bodies.Tasks. Investigate and generalize the practice of consensus decision-making within the international regional organizations, highlight actual ways to increase the efficiency of their decision-making mechanisms.Methods. The study used general scientific methodology. The comparative analysis method is used to compare existing decision-making practices. Analysis, synthesis, generalization, as well as the formal logical method were used to formulate the conclusions of the work.Results. The collective decision-making based on consensus follows from the international legal principle par in parem non habet imperium. It emphasizes the equality of all participants in an international organization and excludes the imposition of obligations non-approved by a sovereign state. From this point of view, consensus is a way to strengthen unity and achieve organizational stability. Simultaneously the practice of using this form in various international organizations gives evidence to its low efficiency in decision-making. Achieving consensus requires intensive efforts to coordinate the positions of the parties, and the emergence of “one-vote veto” situations cannot be ruled out. A possible way to increase the efficiency of decision-making within the framework of integration processes (EU, EAEU) lies through the development of supranational mechanisms.Conclusions. Analysis of the practice of functioning of international regional organizations (SCO, NATO, CSTO) allows to identify two approaches aimed at overcoming the negative features of consensus decision-making. The first involves the development of an international organization with formal obligations of members into a community associated with the establishment of a set of shared values among its participants. The second presumes the creation of mechanisms that allow interested states to use the institutions of such a structure to make collective decisions without a not-participating state. Both approaches do not exclude but complement each other.

Overcoming alliance dilemmas in the collective security treaty organization: signaling for reputation amid strategic ambiguity

The Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) bills itself as an alliance. It is seen as Russia’s hedge to NATO, yet it often acts in an inconsistent manner vis-a-vis its members when they face crisis situations. These situations are complicated by the fact that the alliance engages in a policy of strategic ambiguity without making a firm commitment to either side of a dispute. Since Russia often acts as a security guarantor on a bilateral level for these states, staying in the alliance may become counterproductive. In order to prevent defection of its members and assuage their fears of abandonment, while maintaining this unofficial policy of strategic ambiguity, and thus help the alliance patron, Russia, avoid entanglement, reassurances are needed. These reassurances come in the form of sunk costs, specifically joint annual military exercise, and the 2022 intervention in Kazakhstan. These sunk costs by the CSTO enhance its reputation for reliability, while maintaining its policy of strategic ambiguity. They reassure its members, assuaging their fear of abandonment, and keeping them invested in the alliance. This will be shown through the use of process tracing in a case study that examines an internal alliance dilemma with two of the organization’s members.

Attitudes of Labor Migrants from Central Asia to International Integration Organizations in the Post-Soviet Space

The article presents the results of a sociological empirical study that was conducted from May to August in 2023. Its purpose was to study the attitudes of labor migrants in Russia towards various international integration processes in the post-Soviet space. The objects of the study were workers from Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan, working in Moscow and the Moscow region. The choice of these countries is not accidental, as they are the main migration donors to the Russian Federation in Central Asia. The uniqueness of the research results lies in the fact that despite the certain “popularity” of such an empirical object as “labor migrants.” The analyzed subject has not yet been sufficiently developed theoretically and empirically. Particular attention is paid to the political preferences and migration attitudes of labor migrants. The issue of awareness of foreign workers of the activities of international integration and military-political associations, such as the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), European Union (EU), the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) and also the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) is examined. The paper also presents the respondents’ assessment of the role of these associations in the development of international processes. Separately, the article examines the relationship between Russia and migrant-sending countries. Based on the results of the study, the authors conclude that respondents have a positive attitude towards integration associations in which Russia plays a key role. Moreover, the socio-political attitudes of foreign workers are characterized by a high degree of loyalty to the foreign policy of the Russian Federation. Migrants overwhelmingly support international cooperation between their countries and Russia and share the foreign policy position of the Russian Federation. In conclusion, labor migrants from Central Asia can be considered as a resource and capital of the influence of Russian “soft power.”

The US–Japan alliance and the role of the US Marines on Okinawa in extended deterrence

Abstract The relocation of the controversial Marine base at Futenma on Okinawa to Henoko in the north of the same island has been framed by Japanese politicians, officials, and analysts as crucial to deterrence. Critics respond that deterrence is merely a pretext, and the relocation is a politically convenient solution that perpetuates discrimination against Okinawa by the central government in Tokyo. This article draws on deterrence theory to evaluate the deterrence claims made by relocation proponents. It finds little evidence to support them: the Marines’ capabilities pale against the massive US forward deployment, including the Seventh Fleet and the Fifth Air Force. As for the local balance of forces, the Marines are unlikely to participate immediately in a local conflict, and their geographical location leaves them vulnerable; current US strategy is to down-scale and disperse Marine units. If one were focusing on defence rather than political convenience, the Marines would be relocated off Okinawa. In terms of credibility, the article finds that other US bases in Japan play a much more important ‘tripwire’ role, and ultimately, given inter alia the security treaty, joint exercises, and deep interoperability, US extended deterrence to Japan is as credible as possible under the circumstances.