Security In Central Asia Research Articles

UZBEKISTAN’S STRATEGIC APPROACHES OF TO THE SHANGHAIS COOPERATION ORGANIZATION: EXPLORING OPPORTUNITIES FOR “MIDDLE POWER” DIPLOMACY

The article studies the key factors (security, geopolitics, economy) that directly impact the strategy of the Republic of Uzbekistan towards the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). It is revealed that this strategy always has been based on following priorities: (1) ensuring national and regional security in Central Asia (2) preserving independence in foreign policy (3) balancing the interests of major powers in Central Asia (4) preventing hegemony of a single state or a group of states within the SCO (5) using the SCO to implement Uzbekistan's priorities in trade, economy and transport interconnectivity. Due to the current transformation of the SCO and intensification of geopolitical competition among its major members the necessity of applying middle-power diplomacy within the Organization has been identified. Uzbekistan's potential to conduct «middle power diplomacy" in the SCO has been justified.

Human-induced climate change has decreased wheat production in northern Kazakhstan

Northern Kazakhstan is a major wheat exporter, contributing to food security in Central Asia and beyond. However, wheat yields fluctuate and low-producing years occur frequently. It is currently unclear to what extent human-induced climate change contributes to this. The most severe low-producing year in this century was in 2010, which had severe consequences for the food security of wheat-importing countries. Here, we present a climate impact attribution study that quantifies the impact of human-induced climate change on the average wheat production and associated economic revenues in northern Kazakhstan in the 21st century and on the likelihood of a low-production year like 2010. The study uses bias-adjusted counterfactual and factual climate model data from two large ensembles of latest-generation climate models as input to a statistical subnational yield model. We consider the climate data and the yield model as fit for purpose as first, the factual climate simulations represent the observations, second, the out-of-sample validation of the yield model performs reasonably well with a mean R 2 of 0.54, and third, the results are robust under the performed sensitivity tests. Human-induced climate change has had a critical impact on wheat production, specifically through increases in daily-minimum temperatures and extreme heat. This has resulted in a decrease in yields during 2000–2019 by approximately 6.2%–8.2% (uncertainty range of two climate models) and an increased likelihood of the 2010 low-production event by 1.5–4.7 times (10th to 90th percentile uncertainty range covering both climate models). During 2000–2019, human-induced climate change caused economic losses estimated at between 96 and 180 million USD per year (10th to 90th percentile uncertainty range covering both climate models). These results highlight the necessity for ambitious global mitigation efforts and measures to adapt wheat production to increasing temperatures, ensuring regional and global food security.

Russia’s Central Asian Security Policy in the Putin Era: Tools for Intervention and Control “We do not want a second Afghanistan in Central Asia. Therefore, we will follow a very careful policy.” Vladimir Putin

Central Asia has been a strategically important region that Russia has dominated or always wanted to dominate throughout history. Therefore, we can see this in the Soviet Union period or in Russia’s policies after the 1990s. Especially after 2000, with Vladimir Putin becoming the President of Russia, policies on this region gained vitality in every field. One of the most important of these dimensions is the military dimension. In this context, we can cite the Collective Security Treaty Organization and Shanghai Cooperation Organization, which was formed with the participation of other states related to the region within the scope of developing relations with Russia, Central Asia, and which it is trying to be effective. On the other hand, we can see that Russia is trying to extend the terms of use of the military bases left from the Soviet Union in the region and to establish new military bases. Therefore, we can evaluate all these approaches of Russia within the scope of its unwillingness to lose its influence and power in the region and its unwillingness to allow ‘foreign’ forces to intervene in the region.

Activities of the Collective Security Treaty Organization in Central Asia (2002–2022)

The article identifies the contribution of the Collective Security Treaty Organization in Central Asia (CSTO) to the process of ensuring security in Central Asia. Conceptual approaches to the CSTO in the foreign policy of the Russian Federation and its allies in the region are analyzed. The documents of the CSTO are examined, as well as its practical activities to ensure regional security, prevent military threats, combat extremism, and terrorism and drug trafficking. The peacekeeping activities of the CSTO are examined. At the same time, an answer is given to the question why the CSTO did not deploy a peacekeeping mission at the request of Kyrgyzstan during the unrest in 2010, but responded to a similar request from Kazakhstan during the January events of 2022.

Enhancing Cooperation for Interconnected Regional Security: Central Asian Countries and Afghanistan

Objectives: This article aims to delve into the evolving dynamics of cooperation between Central Asian countries and Afghanistan, particularly within the context of interconnected regional security challenges. The strategic significance of Central Asia as a crossroads of major geopolitical and economic interests sets the stage for understanding the transformations in this region, especially following the withdrawal of international forces from Afghanistan.
 
 Methods: To achieve the stated objectives, the article employs a multifaceted approach. It begins by examining the historical context of Central Asia's relationship with Afghanistan, tracing the developments to the post-withdrawal era. The analysis encompasses shared security concerns, potential spillover effects of instability, and the rise of extremism. The research emphasizes the significance of regional cooperation as a viable mechanism to address common threats and foster stability.
 
 Results: The findings of this study shed light on the key drivers and impediments to cooperation in the Central Asian region. Historical rivalries, border disputes, and divergent interests among regional actors are thoroughly analyzed. The existing cooperative frameworks, such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), are scrutinized, and the role of external stakeholders, including major powers and international organizations, is examined in supporting and facilitating regional cooperation.
 
 Conclusion: In conclusion, the article synthesizes the analysis by outlining potential areas of cooperation between Central Asian countries and Afghanistan. It highlights crucial areas such as border security, intelligence sharing, counter-terrorism efforts, trade, economic cooperation, and infrastructure development. Emphasizing the need for trust-building measures, diplomatic dialogue, and mutual understanding, the conclusion underscores the importance of these elements for the successful implementation of cooperative initiatives. Overall, this article makes a significant contribution to the scholarly discourse on regional security in Central Asia and Afghanistan, providing a foundation for further research and policy discussions aimed at fostering a sustainable and resilient security architecture in the region.

THE ROLE OF EXPERT DIALOGUE PLATFORMS IN STRENGTHENING COOPERATION BETWEEN CENTRAL ASIAN COUNTRIES

This article analyzes the relevance of holding think tank forums in modern conditions, characterized by complex global challenges and changes. The main attention is paid to expert dialogue platforms held by the Kazakhstan Institute for Strategic Studies under the President of the Republic of Kazakhstan, including the Central Asian Security and Cooperation Forum. The authors of the article emphasize the importance of the second track of diplomacy and the exchange of expert opinions to strengthen cooperation and solve pressing global and regional problems.

A Realistic Analysis of the Challenges and Opportunities of Providing the Food Security in Central Asia from the Perspective of Russia-Ukraine Conflict

A Realistic Analysis of the Challenges and Opportunities of Providing the Food Security in Central Asia from the Perspective of Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Wheat yields in Kazakhstan can successfully be forecasted using a statistical crop model

Wheat production in Kazakhstan is fundamentally contributing to food security in Central Asia and beyond. It gained even more importance after recent spikes in global food prices in 2022. Therefore, timely and reliable estimates of Kazakh wheat production are important for food security planning and management. In this study, we developed a statistical weather-driven crop model that can successfully hindcast wheat yields at the oblast level up to two months before the harvest. The hindcast of wheat yields for 1993–2021 produces a median R2 of 0.69 for the full model run and R2 values of 0.60 and 0.37 for two levels of out-of-sample validations, respectively. Based on these yield estimates we provide a robust hindcast of the total wheat production for Kazakhstan with R2 values between 0.86 and 0.73. We forecast total wheat production in Kazakhstan for 2022 to be 12.4 million tonnes and the average yield to be 0.96 tonnes per hectare, which is 5 % above the production and yield of 2021 (assuming equal areas). The statistical model is run with publicly available weather and yield data and requires low computational power, making it easily replicable. The forecast model can be used as a replenishment to currently applied forecasting methods supporting countries in Central Asia to meet their food demand.

Assessing water security in Central Asia through a Delphi method and a clustering analysis

The accessibility to freshwater sources and even allocation among different uses has become one of the most challenging sustainability aspects, especially in developing and transition economies, where a rapid increase in water consumption and poor management practices are more frequent. Water security has been adopted as a relatively new concept to encompass the relevant dimensions for the sustainable management of freshwater resources. Still, water security remains a rather abstract notion without well-established and measurable indicators. Central Asia (CA) is a region where water security was prioritized after the Soviet dissolution in 1991; however, several socio-economic, environmental, and transboundary aspects hinder establishing a common understanding. In this study, we have attempted to synopsize the concept of water security in CA as perceived by the views of water professionals with experience and expertise in the region. We applied a Delphi method and analyzed its outcome with clustering and regression analysis to better comprehend the agreement rate among water professionals on critical aspects of water security in the CA region. Our devised methodology can quantify the general agreement rate among professionals and assess the behavioural trends for iterative Delphi rounds. The findings suggest that the economic dimension of water security in CA is the ultimate priority for nearly all water professionals, while the national priorities for each CA county are not identical. The study anticipates identifying the elements needed for a commonly agreed water security framework in CA and offering methodological insights for the assessment of socio-ecological challenges.

CYBERSECURITY AND CURRENT GLOBAL THREATS IN CENTRAL ASIA

Cybersecurity issues have become the main feature for internal security in Central Asia, since today everything is subject to digitization processes: personal documents, video surveillance, electronic dossiers on suspects, interception of cellular communications, forecasting and information collection, etc. Cyber defense, like nuclear deterrence, began to be implemented through deterrence, so here the fundamental strategic balance may be disrupted with relatively modest resources. One of the significant topics associated with the regulation of numerical space is represented as a guarantee of cybersecurity. Against the background of increasing extremism, this problem is extremely topical for CA. Even if the Central Asian states have not yet achieved the level of a high-tech community, the subject of cybersecurity has takeover the regional media in an ambivalent context.

Role of energy storage in energy and water security in Central Asia

Central Asia has faced major energy and water security challenges. Technically, water from the Pamir and Tian Shan Mountain ranges could be sufficient to meet the needs of the countries in the region, if there was no temporal mismatch between the availability of water for irrigation and electricity generation. While water is required for agriculture in downstream countries during the summer, demand for hydro electricity generation is mainly in the wintertime in upstream countries. With the aid of the open-source MESSAGEix energy systems optimization modelling framework, we study a renewable energy transition in the region through to 2050, considering innovative long duration water and energy storage solutions for optimal management of water and energy resources in different seasons. The modelling approach demonstrates that the proposed "dual water and energy storage scheme", with two different hydrological cycles for up- and down-stream regions, can guarantee enough water for energy generation in upstream countries in winter while ensuring water availability for irrigation downstream in summer. This scheme is economically feasible and, with further detailed analyses and geo-political considerations, it can serve to improve energy security and water resource management, towards achieving sustainable development goals in Central Asia.

DRUG BUSINESS AS A THREAT TO SECURITY IN CENTRAL ASIA

Based on the latest data from the UN Office on Drugs and Crime, the International Narcotics Control Board, as well as researches of the experts on illicit drug trafficking this article reveals the causes and factors that contribute to the growth of cultivation and production of drugs in Afghanistan. Particular attention is paid to the peculiarities and new trends in illicit drug trafficking from Afghanistan, the negative consequences of the business of drugs and its impact on security in Central Asia.

SOURCES OF THREATS TO REGIONAL SECURITY IN CENTRAL ASIA AND MEASURES TO COMBAT THEM

The countries of the region are pursuing an active foreign policy on the path to peace and sustainable development in Central Asia. Making Central Asia a zone of peace and good neighborliness has also been identified as a priority of Uzbekistan's foreign policy. The relevance of this article is that in today's era of increasing sources of global threats, ensuring regional security in Central Asia has become one of the main tasks facing the countries of the region. Trade, economic, transport and transit-logistics, security and stability, equitable use of water resources, strengthening cultural and humanitarian ties, friendship and good neighborly relations between the peoples are being developed between the two countries.

He Shanghai Cooperation Organization and its role in the contemporary system of international relations (On the 20th anniversary of the SCO)

This year marks the 20th anniversary of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). This is a good opportunity to assess its performance over the past two decades, to draw some conclusions, and to discuss possible future developments of the SCO. The author examines milestones in the formation of the SCO, its institutional structure, as well as its key activities which encompass four focal areas: politics, security, economy, and humanitarian cooperation. The paper focuses on the decisions of the 21st SCO Summit in Dushanbe, especially those aimed at strengthening cooperation in combating the eff ects of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic and addressing security challenges, arising from the latest developments in Afghanistan. The latter particularly imply an increasing threat of terrorism, extremism, and drug traffi cking from Afghanistan to neighboring countries in Central Asia. The author emphasizes the crucial role of the SCO Regional Antiterrorist Structure (RATS) in countering these threats. Finally, the paper addresses both the circumstances and possible implications of Iran’s ascension to a full SCO member, which was approved during the summit in Dushanbe. The author concludes that over the past two decades the SCO has successfully transitioned from an important, yet regional in scope and framework, organization to an infl uential global actor, which plays a major role in the maintenance of peace and security in Central Asia and could serve as a model for the establishment of a new non-confrontational approach to the interstate relations.

The US and Chinese approaches to regional security in Central Asia

The article is devoted to identifying the main features in the approaches of China and the United States to regional security in the Central Asian region after the withdrawal of the American contingent from Afghanistan. Central Asia has geopolitical importance in the context of China's economic growth, the American Chinese confrontation for spheres of influence, and changes in the situation in Afghanistan after the Taliban came to power. The study identified the main external and internal factors that determine the approaches of China and the United States to regional security in Central Asia after 2021.

RUSSIA AND TURKEY: HISTORICAL FEATURES OF INTERACTION AND PROSPECTS FOR COOPERATION

The purpose of the article is to examine the history of bilateral relations until the beginning of the 21st century, thanks to the available information and based on an analysis of the actions of Moscow and Ankara, to assess the prospects for the transition to Russian-Turkish relations in the next few years. The modern world order, which arose at the end of the 20th century due to the collapse of the Yalta-Potsdam system and called «polycentricity», is an urgent problem in the scientific community (i.e, among analysts, scientists and experts). The foreign policy of this or that country has a significant impact on the development of geopolitical processes. As you know, Russia and Turkey play a key role in the international arena. This is evidenced by the holding of meetings of the Presidents and Foreign Ministers to resolve the conflict in Syria, the achievement of mutual understanding by Moscow and Ankara through the implementation of joint energy projects, the participation of the two countries in ensuring security in Central Asia and the Caucasus. At the same time, the prospects for Russian-Turkish cooperation are in the focus of attention of orientalists and Turkologists, and the presence of numerous publications makes it possible to determine their points of view on this issue.

Plant breeding increases spring wheat yield potential in Afghanistan

AbstractWheat (Triticum aestivum L.) is an essential food security crop in Afghanistan. To determine the contribution of wheat breeding to increasing productivity, we analyzed data obtained from 192 trials conducted over 11 locations from 2002–2003 to 2015–2016. Using this data, we estimated annual genetic gains for grain yield, days to heading and plant height over the 14‐yr period. We used best linear unbiased estimates to measure genetic gains across CIMMYT Elite Spring Wheat Yield Trials per se and for the top 5 and top 10% performing genotypes relative to checks. Mean realized genetic gain for grain yield was 115 kg ha–1 yr−1, whereas the top 10 genotypes achieved annual yield gains of 123 kg ha–1. The continually replaced local checks also contributed an annual genetic gain for yield of 107 kg ha–1. The associated adaptive traits days to heading and plant height varied in their response over time with the top 10 yielding genotypes having a 1.82 d annual reduction in heading date while plant height increased by 0.77 cm yr−1 for the same set of genotypes. Results show that continual breeding improvements confer yield gains, contributing to increasing Afghan wheat productivity. This has wider relevance for demonstrating the value of continued investment in public sector plant breeding supporting wheat production and food security in Central Asia.

Critical geopolitics, the Shanghai cooperation organization and the sino-kazakh water agreements

The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), previously known as the Shanghai Five, was formed in June 2001 as a security engagement organization. It is a highly influential organization in the Eurasian continent, and most Central Asian countries – Kazakhstan included - are members of SCO, as well as China. In recent years, the Chinese water diplomacy towards Kazakhstan has advanced in different agreements that are shaping the patterns of water security in Central Asia. The Chinese strategic interest in the development of the scope of the SCO in this region has made Kazakh transboundary water issues to advance in negotiations. However, these agreements have been made in a bilateral scheme, which is considered relatively unequal towards Kazakh interests; therefore, in spite of the Kazakh efforts, the SCO so far has not turned into a water security organization. This paper is going to analyze the current trends in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, as well as the Sino-Kazakh cooperation platform, especially regarding transboundary water resources. From the perspective of the critical geopolitics scholarship and its considerations regarding the concepts of hegemony and zones of influence, the idea that the Sino-Kazakh cooperation has advanced following Chinese interests is going to be defended. In conclusion, this paper states that due to the lack of interest regarding Chinese water diplomacy, and despite of Kazakh efforts, the SCO is not in the near future launching great initiatives regarding water security in the region, reinforcing the Chinese diplomacy of bilateral water agreements. Recebido em 14/04/2021Aprovado em 19/09/2021

Civil Society and Patterns of Security in Central Asia

Abstract Since the national independence of the Central Asian countries in the early 1990s, there has been a tension between stability- and transformation-oriented rationalities, goals, and policies. However, the concurrent missions of political stability and societal transformation indicate a clear distinction between state and society. This idea of separating state and society is particularly strong with regard to security issues, but this strict separation is likely to produce contradictory goals and to have dysfunctional consequences since it prevents the political system from benefitting from the contribution that civil society can make to addressing political and social challenges. Therefore, in this article—which also serves as an introduction to the special issue—we argue that it is necessary to bridge the discourses on security and civil society, with a particular focus on Central Asia.

Is land nationalization more conducive to sustainable development of cultivated land and food security than land privatization in post-socialist Central Asia?

The impact of policies on cultivated land and food security has received global attention, especially in Central Asia, which underwent drastic transformations in land policies during the post-socialist era. Therefore, this study focused on the impacts of policies on the quantity and quality of cultivated land and food security in Central Asia from 1992 to 2015. The results showed that although different land policy reforms were implemented by five Central Asian countries, the cultivated land areas tended to be stable after 2010. The cultivated land increased by approximately 7.02 × 104 km2 in Central Asia. After 2000, cultivated land slowly increased and the degree of land degradation rapidly decreased, illustrating that the turning point for the quantity and quality of cultivated land change caused by these policies occurred in 2000. In addition, changes in cotton and grain cultivation occurred in response to the policies of Central Asian countries. Grain per capita increased in land nationalization countries, whereas it decreased in land privatization countries. Thus, driven by policies, the cultivated land use mode in Central Asia was gradually replacing the mode used by the Soviet Union and has been moving toward sustainable development. Some Central Asian countries, however, still face food insecurity.