Security Expenditure Research Articles

Health and Economic Effects of Salt Reduction Interventions for Preventing Noncommunicable Diseases in Japan: A System Dynamics Simulation Study

Reducing salt intake is a vital public health measure for combating noncommunicable diseases and mitigating rising social security expenditures in Japan. We developed a system dynamics model to analyze the potential health and cost effects of salt reduction interventions among the Japanese population aged 40 years and above from 2012 to 2040. The simulation findings derived from the model indicate that, in the base run, the disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for cardiovascular disease (CVD) and chronic kidney disease (CKD) are projected to be approximately 55 and 9.5 per 100,000 people, respectively, contributing approximately 40 trillion yen in social security expenditures by 2040. The model predicts that implementing mandatory reformulation could decrease DALYs for CVD and CKD by 5.7% and 6.2%, respectively, resulting in an approximately 6.7% reduction in social security expenditure. Additionally, voluntary reformulation is estimated to reduce the DALYs for CVD and CKD by 4.7% and 5.2%, leading to a 5.6% decrease in social security expenditure. Finally, accelerating the adoption of a low-salt diet is expected to lower the DALYs for CVD by 2.8% and CKD by 3.2%, thereby reducing social security expenditures by 3.4%. Thus, product reformulation initiatives have a greater impact on health and economic outcomes.

Forecasting techniques based on the use of time series models for forecasting expenditures on social protection and social security

In the context of a military conflict, it is growing the number of people who are in difficult life circumstances and need state assistance. Therefore, the issue of forecasting spending on social protection and social security is becoming increasingly relevant. The aim of the paper is to consider modern methods of analyzing and forecasting time series and propose their application to determine the need for spending on social protection and social security. The article provides a brief overview of regression models, their advantages and features of use for analyzing and predicting nonlinear and linear processes described by time series of statistical indicators used in the population social protection system. The paper offers a combination of predictions that can be made based on locally linear and nonlinear models, such as threshold autoregression (TAR) and exponential autoregression (ExAR), which have known quality characteristics. This approach primarily concerns time series that contain data on structural changes in the analyzed processes. Using combined predictions, it is possible to estimate the contribution of each component for both different and selected time points using variable weights. To build forecasts, depending on the scenario of distribution of social protection and social security expenditures, it is proposed to use Bayes networks. Their advantages are flexibility, high quality of results, the possibility of structural and parametric optimization and adaptation to new data and conditions, support for quality assessment by appropriate sets of statistical criteria, which makes it possible to analyze thoroughly intermediate and final results. It helps to increase the adequacy of models and the high quality of the final result of their application.

What works to reduce regional health inequalities? A case of East vs West Germany post reunification

Abstract Regional inequalities in mortality are rising across the globe. The case of German reunification offers a unique opportunity to explore how such inequalities can be reduced, or even eliminated: following reunification, a long-standing life expectancy gap between East and West Germany was closed for women and markedly reduced for men in a period of less than 15 years. Drawing from theory on health inequalities, we investigate the contribution of material, behavioural and psychosocial factors likely related to the narrowing of the life expectancy gap between East and West Germany following reunification. We used regional data from official national statistics covering the period 1994-2020 for 15 regions in East and West Germany. Using fixed-effects models with an interaction term for regions in the East, we investigated whether within-region changes in key hypothesised factors (social security expenditure, healthcare improvements, changes in alcohol consumption, and life satisfaction), have had differential impacts on life expectancy at birth and at 65 years. We find that increases in social security benefits in the East following reunification has been the most important factor for lowering inequalities between the two parts of Germany: for every standard deviation increase in social security benefits, life expectancy at birth increased by an additional 0.20 [0.07,0.33] years for males and by 0.15 [-0.01,0.31] years for females in East relative to West Germany. We find the protective effect of social security benefits also for women at 65 years (additional 0.14 years [0.006,0.268]) but not for men. Overall, our findings suggest that increasing social security expenditure could be an effective policy-based tool for reducing health disparities across regions with different levels of economic development. This provides additional support for the relevance of the materialist hypothesis and the political economy of root causes of health inequalities. Key messages • Our findings suggest that increasing social security expenditure could be an effective policy-based tool for reducing regional health disparities. • We find support for the materialist and political economy approaches to explaining health inequalities.

Level of social security expenditures and economic growth rate based on econometric regression modelling: New evidence from OECD countries

This research article examines the relationship between the level of social welfare expenditure and economic growth rates, based on unbalanced panel data from 38 OECD countries covering the period from 1985 to 2022. Four hypotheses are formulated regarding the impact of social expenditure on economic growth rates. Through multiple iterations of regression model building, employing various combinations of dependent and independent variables, and conducting tests for stationarity and causality, compelling empirical evidence was obtained on the negative influence of social welfare spending on economic growth rates. The study takes into account both government and non-governmental expenditures on social welfare, a novelty in this field. This approach allows for a detailed examination of the effects of different components on economic growth and provides a more comprehensive understanding of the relationships. The findings indicate that countries with high levels of social welfare spending experience a slowdown in economic growth rates. This is associated with increasing demands on social security systems, their growing inclusivity, and the escalating required levels of financing, which are increasingly covered by debt sources. The research highlights the need to strike a balance between social expenditures and economic growth rates and proposes a set of measures to ensure economic growth outpaces the indexing of social expenditures. The abstract underscores the relevance of the study in light of the widespread recognition of the necessity to combat inequality, poverty, and destitution, and calls on OECD countries’ governments to pay increased attention to social policy in order to achieve sustainable and balanced economic growth.

Effect of Rural Banditry on Food Security and Poverty Reduction in Nigeria

This research investigates how rural banditry hinders sustainable food security and poverty reductions in Nigeria. The Food and Agricultural Organisation, the International Monetary Fund, the National Bureau of Statistics, the United Nations Development Programme, scholarly journals, and field surveys were the sources from which the data were gathered. Three hundred questionnaires were administered to farmers in six states via Plateau, Nassarawa, Kaduna, Benue, Oyo and Niger, in addition to a focused group discussion with selected farmers in each of the study areas. Data collected were analyzed using descriptive and inferential statistics. Findings show that unemployment, poverty, poor governance, inadequate infrastructure, insufficient security measures and lack of effective institutional coordination, create a network of individuals who support or engage in banditry; farmers experienced disruptions in farming activities, psychological distresses and loss of livestock. Among the socio-economic impacts of banditry include: loss of income and economic opportunities, displacement and migration of the rural population, reduced productivity and infrastructural degradation. These led to food shortages, hikes in food prices, malnutrition and increased poverty level in Nigeria. This study emphasizes the urgent need by the federal and state governments to tackle the problems of unemployment and poverty; develop infrastructure; increase security expenditure; and implement targeted rural development policies. These solutions will curb rural banditry, ensure food security and reduce poverty in Nigeria. Keywords: Rural Banditry, food security, poverty reduction, food production, development policies, farmers.

Usage of intellectual analysis of ecological-economic data in the pension insurance system and for forecasting expenditures on social protection and social security

The paper is devoted to an actual scientific and applied problem – the development of methodology for applying mathematical models and data mining methods for actuarial calculations in mandatory state pension insurance system. The paper describes methodology for modeling changes in the number of pension recipients taking into account the impact of environmental factors, in particular air pollution. The basis of the proposed method is a multi-model approach, characterized by combination of data mining and probabilistic models in the form of Bayesian network, which are appropriate in conditions of statistical, parametric and structural uncertainty.The proposed approach describes the change in number of pension recipients, in particular for disability and breadwinner loss, under influence of air pollution from organic and inorganic compounds. The scientific novelty of the paper is in the use of an ensemble of models including probabilistic and statistical models in the form of Bayesian network and regression models, in the system of actuarial calculations of mandatory state pension insurance.The paper considers several scenarios for the impact of pollutants on the growth of number of pension recipients. The indicator of the share of expenditures on social protection and social security of the population in the gross national product was chosen as the target variable of the process under study. Mathematical models were found to be adequate to the modeling process, and the Bayesian network classification error is about 20%. The model structure is built in Genie 2.0 modeling system. The principal component analysis, is used to reduce the data dimension. The proposed methodology can also be applied to other tasks of forecasting social protection and social security expenditures.

Twisted industrial structure, land financing mode and social security

This paper explains the disparities in the level of social security across different regions in China from the perspective of industrial structure distortions and discusses the moderating effect of land financing models. The results show that industrial structure distortions have a significant negative impact on social security expenditures; the lower the intensity of land investment, and the higher the intensity of land finance and land-based finance, the stronger the negative impact of industrial structure distortions on social security expenditures. The research conclusion of this paper has the reference significance for the government's sound and sustainable multi-level social security system.

Preventable mortality, related socioeconomic, and cultural factors across European countries

Preventable mortality is a societal burden, impacting significantly on a country’s economy. The aim of this study is to identify the factors associated with the preventable mortality rate across European countries. The major contribution of this study comes from the consideration of cultural values to be related with preventable mortality. The cultural values taken into consideration are uncertainty avoidance and long-term orientation which have a strong correlation with economic preferences. For this purpose, panel data from 27 countries was collected for the period 2011–2019. Various models were applied to the dataset, including least squares dummy variable regression, AR(1) model, as well as Driscoll-Kraay, Prais-Winstein, and Hausman-Taylor models. Results show that while preventable mortality rate across European countries closely correlates with GDP per capita, social security expenditures, and air pollution, it is also associated with immigrants per capita and health expenditures. The key findings point to the relationship between cultural values and preventable mortality. These results show that designing effective policies and measures to reduce preventable mortality need to account for the cultural traits of the population.

تحديد عائد الاستثمارات الأمنية للشركات التقنية الناشئة

تعتبر الشركات الناشئة في مجال التكنولوجيا بالغة الأهمية في النهوض بالمبادرات الرقمية في العديد من البلدان التي تخضع لأجندة الدولة الذكية. وبالتالي ، فإن الشركات الناشئة في مجال التكنولوجيا هي بائعون وموردون للخدمات للمنظمات الكبيرة مثل القطاع الحكومي والشركات متعددة الجنسيات والمؤسسات المالية. على هذا النحو ، أصبحت الشركات الناشئة سريعًا نواقل هجوم للجناة الخبثاء للدخول عبر الأبواب الخلفية إلى المؤسسات الكبيرة. ومع ذلك ، لا تزال الشركات الناشئة حكيمة في إنفاقها على الأمن السيبراني لأن نجمها الشمالي هو توليد الإيرادات من خلال تقديم خدماتها والحد الأدنى من المنتجات القابلة للتطبيق (MVP) لعملائها. تقترح هذه الدراسة عائدًا معززًا على الاستثمار الأمني (ROSI) والذي يساعد الشركات الناشئة في مجال التكنولوجيا على حساب العائد على الاستثمار الأمني وتبرير ميزانيتها للإنفاق على الأمن السيبراني على الرغم من وجود نماذج حالية لحساب عائد الاستثمارات المخصصة لنفقات الأمن السيبراني ، إلا أنها معقدة نوعًا ما ولا تعطي وضوحًا للإدارة من حيث القيمة النقدية للإنفاق على الأمن السيبراني. علاوة على ذلك ، لا تلبي النماذج الحالية ديناميكيات وفروق الشركات الناشئة في مجال التكنولوجيا. يوفر النموذج المحسّن أيضًا للشركات الناشئة في مجال التكنولوجيا القدرة على تعديل استثماراتها في مجال الأمن السيبراني بشكل مناسب بناءً على حسابات قيم الحد الأدنى (الأدنى) والحد الأقصى (الأقصى) لمؤشر ROSI. تم التحقق من صحة نموذج ROSI المقترح والمحسّن من قبل 5 من خبراء الأمن السيبراني الذين اتفقوا على أهمية وضرورة النموذج الذي سيتم تطبيقه على الشركات الناشئة في مجال التكنولوجيا. تتيح نتائج دراسة الحالة الخاصة بشركة FinTech الناشئة حساب Min و Max ROSI لتبرير العائد على الاستثمارات الأمنية وتزويد الشركة الناشئة بالقدرة على ضبط الإنفاق على الأمن السيبراني وفقًا لذلك.

A multi-level analysis of older adults’ care preferences in China: from the perspective of regional resource equality

AbstractThis paper aims to assess the care preferences of the elderly in China and how the multi-level factors including individuals, communities and provinces affect the elderly’s care preferences. Using data from the 2014 China Longitudinal Aging Social Survey (CLASS) and China Statistical Yearbook 2015, we apply concentration index to examine the utilization of regional resources in the elderly and a multi-level model to examine those relationships. Results show that the elderly who live in communities with well-developed health care facilities prefer to choose family care. There are also significant differences at the provincial level. The developed provinces context increases the likelihood of formal care, but decreases informal care probability. In high social security expenditure provinces, the elderly are more likely to choose formal care. Our findings emphasize the influence of the communities and provinces context on the elderly’s care preferences. We suggest the government pay attention to the care status of the elderly who are outside the social care system.

Digital inclusion finance, social governance and household investment decisions

Using the data of China Household Finance Micro Survey (CHFS) and Peking University Digital Inclusive Financial Index, the fixed effect model is adopted to conduct empirical analysis. The study finds that digital inclusive finance can effectively improve the efficiency of asset allocation and risk preference of urban and rural households. At the same time, the increase of education expenditure, social security expenditure and medical and health expenditure in social governance can make its promoting effect stronger. Compared with urban households, digital inclusive finance has a greater impact on rural households.

Spatio-temporal characteristics and influencing factors of land disputes in China: Do socio-economic factors matter?

Land disputes pose significant challenges to social stability and development. In this paper, land dispute intensity (LDI) is measured at the provincial level in China from 2009 to 2018 and its spatiotemporal evolution characteristics and influencing factors are explored. The ordinary least squares(OLS), spatial durbin model (SDM), geodetector model, and panel threshold model are used to explore the spatial spillover effects of LDI and its potential non-linear relationship with socio-economic factors. The results reveal that LDI is spatially distributed in a decentralized form, with local areas showing the structural characteristics of “single core, multiple clusters”. The LDI exhibits a significant positive spatial autocorrelation and follows a “logarithmic” upward trend over time. The urbanization rate (UR), social security expenditures (SSE), and the number of land and resources institutions (NLRI) are important driving forces affecting LDI. The SSE and NLRI have a single threshold effect on the LDI, with a “V” shaped weakening trend, and the UR is an important factor causing nonlinear effects. Interestingly, the effect shifts from inhibition to stimulation when the SSE and NLRI cross the corresponding threshold value. This paper can provide new insights into the governance of land disputes.

Will wealth inequality decrease happiness?-Empirical evidence from China.

This article delves into the broad social and economic impacts of wealth inequality, specifically focusing on its effects on happiness, as analyzed using micro survey data from the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS). This article employs the panel OLS regression method with time and province fixed effects for the main result and heterogeneity analysis, then uses the mediating effect and moderating effect test for the mechanisms. The article presents several key findings: 1. Impact of Wealth Inequality on Happiness. The study confirms that wealth inequality significantly reduces happiness, a conclusion reinforced by a range of consistency tests and endogeneity checks. 2. Heterogeneity Analysis. Three areas of heterogeneity are examined: Hukou status, education level, and family members' average income. The results indicate that the happiness of families with a family head holding an urban Hukou, higher education, or a higher per-member income level is less affected by wealth inequality. 3. Mechanisms Affecting Happiness. At the micro-level, the article identifies two mediating pathways-health and marital status-through which wealth inequality negatively influences happiness. At the macro-level, it is found that social security expenditure and economic development can moderate these effects and enhance subjective happiness under the same conditions of wealth inequality. The contributions of this study are specific as: 1. This study addresses some of the existing gaps in the research regarding the relationship between wealth inequality and happiness. 2. The article utilizes relative deprivation as a measure of wealth inequality, considered a more apt metric for studying happiness compared to absolute inequality. 3. This research offers insights into the mechanisms behind the observed effects, considering both micro-level (individual and family) and macro-level (societal and economic) factors.

ПОРІВНЯЛЬНА ХАРАКТЕРИСТИКА ВІЙСЬКОВИХ ОБЛІГАЦІЙ ЯК ДЖЕРЕЛА ФІНАНСУВАННЯ ВІЙСЬКОВИХ ПОТРЕБ У США ТА УКРАЇНІ

The history of the introduction of war bonds as a source of financing for various wars in the United States is presented. The share of tax revenues and funds from the sale of military bonds to finance military expenditures is graphically shown. A tendency to reduce the share of military loans among the sources of financial support for military expenditures and to shift the focus to tax revenues is identified. The role of war bonds in financing military expenditures during World War II is described in detail. The main characteristics of military bonds in the United States are presented: maturity, face value, interest rate, and investors. The work of the government to popularize military bonds in the United States is described. The article characterizes military bonds for financing military needs in Ukraine during the period of occupation of part of the territories of Donetsk and Luhansk regions by Russian mercenaries in 2014 and during the full-scale invasion in 2022–2023. The ways the government has simplified the process of purchasing military bonds, including through the Diia app, are described. The structure of financing defence and security expenditures in 2022–2023 is graphically presented. The dynamics and structure of tax revenues, military bonds, and non-tax revenues as sources of financing military expenditures are analyzed. The focus is on the redemption of military bonds by the NBU through the issue of hryvnia in 2022. It is proved that the effectiveness of the sale of military bonds in the United States and Ukraine depends on the level of patriotism of the population, its trust in the government and faith in victory. The common features of bonds issued in the United States and Ukraine in wartime by the following features are presented: the purpose of bonds issuance, investors' motives, the selling price, and placement of bonds on the stock market. The distinctive features based on the following criteria are identified: currency of bond placement, face value of the bond, types of investors, bond maturity, bond yield, frequency of bond placement in the primary market, and government agencies responsible for bond placement and promotion. It is proved that the issue of military bonds provides countries with the opportunity to attract financial resources for the long term, which allows them to plan and finance strategic military projects, purchase weapons and other military equipment.

NATIONAL DEFENCE EXPENDITURES, INTERNAL SECURITY EXPENDITURES AND REAL ECONOMIC GROWTH

This study investigated the influence of government defence and security expenditures on economic growth in Nigeria using annual time series data for the period 1981-2021. The study used government recurrent and capital defence expenditures, and as well as government recurrent and capital internal security expenditures as the main explanatory variables. The Autoregressive Distributive Lag approach was used to analyze the data. The results revealed that the shares of government recurrent defence expenditures in GDP and recurrent internal security expenditures in GDP had negative and insignificant impact on economic growth. The share of government capital defence expenditure in GDP had positive and insignificant impact on economic growth. Similarly, the share of government capital internal security expenditures in GDP had a positive but insignificant impact on economic growth. The study recommends that government should encourage the adequate implementation of the budgetary provision for defence and internal security expenditures, and also that government should device a means to technologically monitor the disbursement of funds for national defence and internal security in the fight against the security challenges.

REGIONAL GAP IN SPENDING ON PUBLIC SECURITY AND CRIME IN BRAZIL

Theoretical literature indicates that public security spending matters to deter criminal behavior. Nevertheless, most empirical studies aiming to quantify the influence of public security spending on crime have largely been unable to establish a statistically significant relationship between these variables. In response to this, we introduced a novel proxy that measures the rationing of public security expenditures in each region. When testing it for crimes of homicide, robbery, and theft of vehicles through the GMM-SYS estimator, we found statistical evidence that its occurrence influences criminal behavior. We believe its inception contributes valuable evidence to the economic literature, shedding light on the debate surrounding the allocative efficiency of security spending resources.

Digital finance, social security expenditures, and rural-urban household income poverty. Evidence based on an area and household level analysis

Digital finance has become a key issue of research in the academic community. However, existing studies have paid less attention to the influence factors of urban and rural household income poverty, especially the lack of in-depth investigation on the influence mechanism of digital finance on urban and rural household income poverty. Based on the perspective of social security expenditure, finds digital finance will shorten the gap between urban and rural household income poverty; and the social security expenditure can strengthen this inhibitory effect. The findings provide practical guidance for the government to pay sufficient attention to social security expenditure.

Desafios para o estudo comparado do financiamento da segurança pública nos estados

This article examines public security funding in five Brazilian states: São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro, Ceará, Pará, and Rio Grande do Sul. The study presents the budget structures of these states and aims to understand variations in public security spending, as well as the feasibility of comparing such information across the states. The results reveal that public security expenditures are structured differently, reflecting unequal and complex governance systems where similar actors hold distinct significance in each state, notably the state police forces. Furthermore, in addition to the disparities between states, the analyzed budgets vary within a state over the years. Consequently, comparing public security expenditures in Brazil becomes challenging, highlighting the need for standardized accounting practices among states and greater transparency in monitoring relevant actions to combat violence. Lastly, the findings suggest the potential for comparing the correlation between state expenditures and their outcomes, analyzing efficiency and effectiveness.

Are critical success factors for cybersecurity just technical issues Cybersecurity management and the human factor

Purpose- With the rapid advancement of information and communication technologies, businesses are facing growing security risks. The prevalence, intensity, and complexity of cyber attacks worsen these vulnerabilities, leading to a rising focus on cybersecurity. Enterprises exposed to such cyberattacks might not only face considerable financial losses but also experience data breaches, operational interruptions, harm to their reputation, regulatory penalties, legal expenses, reduced competitive standing, and increased insurance premiums. In this concept study discusses the importance of human factors in cybersecurity management. While organizations spend billions on information technology systems and software to detect and prevent cyber threats, individuals play a critical role in managing these risks. Methodology- Through a review of literature and statistical data, study examines the factors contributing to cybersecurity breaches, the allocation of resources to address them, and proposes potential solutions. Findings- In the workplace, most research on cybersecurity focuses on employees as the most important source of vulnerability. In the literature review, it is understood that an employee’s carelessness and lack of awareness pose the greatest risk to cybersecurity. However, businesses often fail to show sufficient attention to human behavior in their efforts to keep organizational data secure and to plan security strategies. It is important to note that effective cybersecurity management requires not only technical controls but also the management of human factors. Meanwhile, security expenditures in enterprises are often disproportionately allocated to technology investments, with 97% being spent on technology investments, despite the fact that over 85% of breaches are attributable to human factors. Conclusion- In the literature review, it is understood that cybersecurity management is not only related to technical controls, but also the management of human factors is of critical importance. The management of individuals is also an essential cybersecurity responsibility. It is important to adopt a holistic approach to cybersecurity management includes both technical and human perspectives. Cybersecurity awareness has significant benefits for businesses to effectively manage cybersecurity which can be achieved by developing appropriate training programs and foster a cybersecurity culture. Keywords: Cybersecurity, cybersecurity management, cybersecurity awareness, technology investments, human factor JEL Codes: M12, M15, L86

Tax Revenue and Security Expenditure of Nigeria

Tax Revenue and Security Expenditure of Nigeria