Spatio-temporal characteristics and influencing factors of land disputes in China: Do socio-economic factors matter?

Abstract

Land disputes pose significant challenges to social stability and development. In this paper, land dispute intensity (LDI) is measured at the provincial level in China from 2009 to 2018 and its spatiotemporal evolution characteristics and influencing factors are explored. The ordinary least squares(OLS), spatial durbin model (SDM), geodetector model, and panel threshold model are used to explore the spatial spillover effects of LDI and its potential non-linear relationship with socio-economic factors. The results reveal that LDI is spatially distributed in a decentralized form, with local areas showing the structural characteristics of “single core, multiple clusters”. The LDI exhibits a significant positive spatial autocorrelation and follows a “logarithmic” upward trend over time. The urbanization rate (UR), social security expenditures (SSE), and the number of land and resources institutions (NLRI) are important driving forces affecting LDI. The SSE and NLRI have a single threshold effect on the LDI, with a “V” shaped weakening trend, and the UR is an important factor causing nonlinear effects. Interestingly, the effect shifts from inhibition to stimulation when the SSE and NLRI cross the corresponding threshold value. This paper can provide new insights into the governance of land disputes.