Security Of Energy Supply Research Articles

Selecting the Best Power Generation Technologies by Using Multi Criteria Decision Making Analysis

The increasing demand for electric power is prompting engineers to consider sustainable energy production systems in Europe. Challenges include energy supply security, affordability, material efficiency, and environmental protection. Based on a number of variables, this study seeks to determine which sustainable technologies are most effective for producing electricity. Numerous competing criteria are present in the sources of energy production; multi-criteria decision-making methods (MCDM) were applied, and the analysis was conducted using the MULTIMOORA, VIKOR, and TOPSIS methodologies. The results of the MULTI MOORA method revealed the best biomass (CHP) power plants; via VIKOR, the best technology for producing electricity was condensing turbine coal; and for TOPSIS, the best technology was solar photovoltaics. These findings demonstrated that future energy policy should be focused on sustainable energy technologies.

The European Energy Crisis and the Consequences for the Global Natural Gas Market

The Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 led to severe disruptions in the European gas market with significant repercussions on a global scale. The conflict caused a surge in energy prices, a major reshuffling of global natural gas flows, and a shift in the policy-makers’ agendas toward energy supply security. This paper provides a comprehensive review of the developments in the global gas market in the aftermath of the war in Ukraine, focusing in particular on the European gas market and on global LNG trade flows. We first review the characteristics of the gas market in terms of both pricing benchmarks and contractual terms. Next, we analyze the changes to LNG and natural gas production, consumption, and trade flows throughout the European energy crisis. Finally, we review the main policy response to the energy crisis and present some considerations on the gas market outlook. JEL Classification: L95, P28, Q35

Determinants of the Relationship between Wholesale and Retail Energy Prices in the Czech Republic

Rising energy prices have become a focus of interest for politicians at the international, European, and national levels. Energy prices are the main determinant of profitability or even the existence of the industrial sector. So, it is accepted that energy policy aims to ensure a secure, sustainable, competitive, and affordable energy supply for households and businesses. However, the recent geopolitical situation has significantly affected the energy policy of the European Union, raising concerns about energy security and an energy crisis. This crisis has had social, economic, and political consequences, including energy poverty. In this context, it is essential to understand the determinants of the relationship between wholesale and retail energy prices. This paper presents a model proposal to be used by the Czech Energy Regulatory Authority. The model of average retail prices depends on the type of contract - spot or forward, with the three-year forward contract having the largest weight on the retail price. Therefore, our study shows that long-term contracts significantly impact retail energy prices, highlighting the importance of regulatory monitoring of market strategies. Methodologically, the model is based on a multivariate regression analysis solved with the least absolute deviations and data for the period 2012 to 2023. The findings of the study contribute to a better understanding of the complexity of the dynamics of energy prices and support policymakers while attempting to ensure energy affordability and sustainability.

Simulation of a Tidal Current-Powered Freshwater and Energy Supply System for Sustainable Island Development

Sustainable development of islands cannot be achieved without the use of renewable energy to address energy and freshwater supply issues. Utilizing the widely distributed tidal current energy in island regions can enhance local energy and water supply security. To achieve economic and operational efficiency, it is crucial to fully account for the unique periodicity and intermittency of tidal current energy. In this study, a tidal current-powered freshwater and energy supply system is proposed. The marine current turbine adopts a direct-drive configuration and will be able to directly transfer the power of the turbine rotation to the seawater pump to improve the energy efficiency. Additionally, the system incorporates batteries for short-term energy storage, aimed at increasing the capacity factor of the electrolyzer. A simulation is conducted using measured inflow velocity data from a full 12 h tidal cycle. The results show that the turbine’s average power coefficient reaches 0.434, the electrolyzer’s average energy efficiency is 60.9%, the capacity factor is 70.1%, and the desalination system’s average specific energy consumption is 6.175 kWh/m3. The feasibility of the system design has been validated.

Development of Energy Security Definition and Indexes for Sustainable Future: A Systematic Literature Review

Abstract In recent years, energy security has been gaining increasing attention worldwide, leading to a rapid growth in research and literature on the subject. As a result, many definitions regarding energy security have been proposed, reflecting the diverse perspectives and considerations involved in ensuring a secure and sustainable energy supply. There has also been a growing interest in how to measure, which has in turn led to the energy security indicators and indices development. Thus, this paper explores the definition of energy security, as well as its various dimensions and the indices employed to measure it. As a result, the scope of energy security has broadened to encompass contemporary concerns such as the environment, governance, social aspects, and technological efficiency, which were not traditionally given much consideration in the past. As a result, multiple themes have been considered, leading to a more holistic understanding and approach to energy security. This evolution has significant implications for the construction of the energy security index especially in Indonesia, as a more comprehensive set of indicators is now required to offer a comprehensive assessment of energy security within a country and provide valuable insights for energy policymakers.

The Impact of R&D Expenditures on Regional Energy Intensity in Turkey

Energy efficiency measures are effective solutions for addressing environmental and economic issues, including global warming, energy supply security, and trade deficits from imported energy sources. Turkey through an ambitious policy scheme in the last decades, have reduced energy intensity level significantly, though, still higher than developed countries. In this regard, this study investigates the relationship between R&D expenditures and energy intensity in Turkey through NUTS-I regional data ranging from 2010 to 2021. According to both FMOLS and DOLS technique findings increasing R&D expenditures may significantly decreases energy intensity. Furthermore, economic growth appears to correlate with reduced energy intensity. Additionally, FMOLS findings suggest that industrialization may increases energy intensity, while DOLS results indicate that population growth can also significantly increase energy intensity. Therefore, a customized research and development (R&D) incentivization support system could offer various benefits to Turkey and other developing nations facing similar challenges.

THE EFFECTS OF RUSSIA-UKRAINE WAR ON UKRANIAN ENERGY SECURITY AND EUROPEAN ENERGY SUPPLY SECURITY

Energy has still drawn substantial attention for both developing and industrialised countries in the aspect of the needs of their economies, businesses and households. For Ukraine as a resource-rich economy, energy security and the efficiency of the energy sector are the bases for the national security of Ukraine. It has been triggered by the annexation of the Ukrainian Crimea by Russia and Russia-Ukraine war today. All these problems have urged Ukraine to determine modern energy policy and a national energy security model in the light of the concepts of energy security in the 21st century. As it is known, the energy crises between Russia and Ukraine directly affect the security of European Union energy supply in the context of natural gas flows. The main argument of this study is as follows: The Russia-Ukraine war has severely affected the energy security of Ukraine and this situation has led the European Union countries to finally consider taking steps to diversify the supply and to prevent further deterioration of the EU energy supply security. In this context, the article will analyse how the effects of the Russia-Ukraine war on Ukrainian energy security will affect EU energy supply security.

Energy Dependence and Supply Security: Energy Law in the New Geopolitical Reality

Energy Dependence and Supply Security: Energy Law in the New Geopolitical Reality

A systematic method of long-sequence prediction of natural gas supply in IES based on spatio-temporal causal network of multi-energy

Natural gas plays an important role in the energy peak-shaving process of Integrated Energy Systems (IES). Accurate prediction of natural gas supply over longer time scales is one of the most important conditions to ensure the stability and security of IES energy supply. However, as the sequence length of the predicted time series increases, it becomes more difficult to extract valid dependencies from the data. At the same time, there are complex spatio-temporal coupling characteristics of various energy resources in the IES, which makes the construction of long sequence prediction models for natural gas supply very difficult. To solve this problem, we propose a systematic method for long-sequence prediction with natural gas supply in IES based on spatio-temporal causal network of multi-energy. First, the proposed approach uses a causal analysis algorithm to represent the complex coupled spatio-temporal relationships of multiple energy resources in an IES. Then, the natural gas time-series are decomposed through the Variational Modal Decomposition (VMD), to reveal its inherent trend and cyclical characteristics. Finally, the long-sequence prediction model is proposed by fusing the attention mechanism into Graph Convolutional Neural Network (GCN). Attentional mechanisms are introduced to obtain important long-term dependencies in the long sequence prediction process. We use a integrated energy dataset from Spain to test the validity and superiority of the method. The results show that the proposed model in this paper improves the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) by at least 9.5% and reduces the Mean Absolute Error (MAE) by at least 14.5% compared to several baseline models.

A physical constraint-based machine learning model for shale oil production prediction

Shale oil has become a crucial unconventional resource, bolstering energy supply security, and it is important to accurately predict shale oil production dynamics. However, traditional prediction methods are faced with the challenges of large data fluctuations and numerous interference factors, which make accurate prediction difficult. This paper introduces a deep learning approach, specifically a physical constraint-based convolutional neural network combined with long short-term memory and attention mechanism (CNN-LSTM-AM), to predict shale oil production dynamics. Initially, the correlation analysis method is used to analyze the correlation strengths of features with the prediction target, and the data that are most strongly correlated with the daily oil production are screened out and preprocessed. Key features are then extracted; that is, the CNN layer's output is fed into the LSTM layer, the output of which informs a fully connected layer for time-series production predictions. The model integrates an AM to concentrate on vital data aspects. In the “five-linear flow” formula, the imbibition is hard-coded into the shale oil production prediction model. Physical constraints are introduced into the model. Data driven and empirical formulas are used to introduce a loss function as a constraint condition in the training process of a machine learning model to improve the interpretability and predictive ability of the model. During the tuning phase, Bayesian optimization is used to fine-tune the model's hyperparameters. Shapley additive explanation and accumulated local effects analyses are used to further assess and quantify the significance of the essential parameters, thus optimizing the prediction effectiveness.

Residential electricity efficiency and implications for Vietnam's clean energy transition

Vietnam’s electricity consumption relative to its average national income per capita is significantly higher than that of similar countries like India or China. Current electricity use is not sustainable and in the future may threaten energy supply security. Of the total electricity consumption, the residential sector accounts for up to a third, making it a critical component for policy interventions. We employ a stochastic frontier model and three rounds of nationally representative household living standards surveys from 2014 to 2018 to measure residential electricity efficiency and its determinants in Vietnam. Our result shows that the average electricity efficiency in Vietnam is approximately 75 %. We then discuss Vietnam’s potential electricity savings and recommend improvements which will be necessary if Vietnam wants to accelerate its long-term clean and sustainable energy prospects.

Renewable energy in India: key trends, drivers and prospects

The article examines the features and trends in the development of renewable energy in India in the context of the modern transformation of the global energy economy. The dynamics of growth of installed capacity in the country’s energy sector by type of generation sources has been analyzed, and stable trends in changes in the structure of primary energy consumption have been identified. The main factors for the successful development of key areas of renewable energy have been identified. Particular attention is paid to the analysis of innovative schemes and instruments of public-private partnership in the development of renewable energy. The main government documents that determine the vector and pace of transformation of the Indian energy sector taking into account the global climate agenda are considered. It is concluded that with undeniable successes in the development of renewable energy and favorable conditions for its further growth, in the foreseeable future in India, traditional energy will not lose its significant importance due to the role that it and the infrastructure created for it play in ensuring economic growth and well-being population, sustainable energy supply and energy security of the country in the context of increasing turbulence in the global energy market.

Problems and prospects of rural energy transformation in China

In recent years, Chinas rural energy supply security capacity has been enhanced, and the adjustment of energy structure has achieved remarkable results, but there are still some problems: The low utilization rate of waste energy in rural areas restricts the comprehensive utilization of resources and environmental protection, the level of rural energy consumption is always in the stage of development, and the lagging construction of rural energy socialized service system restricts the development of rural energy. In view of the problems and challenges faced by Chinas rural energy development, focus on rural energy consumption. This paper analyzes the basic situation of energy development in Chinas rural areas (taking Lantian County of Shaanxi Province as an example). Under the special premise of Chinas national conditions, the specific characteristics of different development in different regions are integrated, and the traditional fossil energy is gradually replaced by the storage and utilization of rural waste and new energy. The key issues such as the construction of rural energy service system and policy guidance are studied, and the measures and suggestions for promoting the scientific development of rural energy in China are put forward.

Enhancing sustainability in electric mobility: Exploring blockchain applications for secure EV charging and energy management

The global shift towards reducing carbon emissions has spurred a growing interest in electric vehicles (EVs) over traditional fossil fuel-based internal combustion engines. Concurrently, blockchain technology has emerged as a transformative solution across various sectors, characterized by its decentralized database and distributed ledger. Its notable attributes, including transparency, immutability, traceability, security, auditability, and authenticity, have led major companies to recognize its potential integration into the EV sector. As a result, there has been a steady increase in case studies and research initiatives exploring blockchain applications in EVs. This article provides a detailed overview of the use of blockchain in the EV domain, focusing on the challenges and applications in four key areas: EV charging infrastructure, energy trading, supply chain management, and energy management. Initially, the basic concepts of blockchain technology are briefly explained, followed by its applications in different fields. The study presents the opportunities and crucial requirements for implementing blockchain technology for secure energy trading, charging, energy management, and supply chain operations. While blockchain can improve security and efficiency in the EV domain, it remains vulnerable to various attacks. This article explores these attacks and other potential challenges in integrating blockchain technology in the EV sector. The main findings of this rEView provide insights into the importance of blockchain in the EV sector and underscore the need to overcome existing challenges for the widespread adoption of this technology in the near future.

Impact of safety regulation on rare event occurrence: The case of nuclear power plants in Korea

Climate change mitigation and energy supply security are the most important issues worldwide. To attain carbon neutrality and restrict global warming to 1.5°C, expediting investments in energy sectors and facilitating the expansion of clean energy is imperative. Nuclear power generation, as a base load, contributes to the energy transition because it is low-carbon and can be deployed on a large scale; however, particular challenges arise due to the risk of accidents, radioactive waste management problems, and public acceptance. Considering the similarity between macroeconomic data and nuclear power generation data from a time-series perspective, this study estimates the frequency of rare event (RE) occurrence in nuclear reactors using macro time-series methodology. We employ the Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo method, developed by Barro and Jin (2021), to estimate the likelihood of RE occurrences for the reactors using the panel data of electricity production (MWh) obtained from the International Atomic Energy Agency's Power Reactor Information System. The findings indicate that the frequency of RE occurrences significantly decreases as nuclear safety regulations strengthen and the regulatory workforce increases. Despite the limitations of being directly utilized as practical indicators for safety performance, observing its similar pattern with the World Association of Nuclear Operators performance indicators provides insights for policy implications in intermediate safety management aimed at preventing major disaster incidents.

Potential for Repowering Inland Coal-Fired Power Plants Using Nuclear Reactors According to the Coal-to-Nuclear Concept

The popularity of nuclear power as a high-availability energy source is increasing in countries that currently rely on coal-based energy. The growing use of renewable energy sources emphasizes the need for greater energy supply security and grid stability. However, nuclear reactors remain the most expensive commercially available power-generation technology, which limits investment in this field. This paper explores the feasibility of investing in Coal-to-Nuclear conversion at selected coal-fired power plant sites in Poland. By converting coal-fired infrastructure, it is possible to reduce the financial cost of constructing a nuclear power plant. The study included an analysis of hydrological conditions from 2010 to 2023 at selected locations, which determined the potential for siting high-power nuclear reactors. An analytical model was used to calculate the required water intake for cooling, and the results were compared with actual river flow measurements. The findings suggested that constructing an inland nuclear power plant in Poland is feasible while complying with legal standards regarding maximum cooling water temperature. The assessment of the four sites allowed appropriate recommendations to be made concerning further research into the implementation of Generation III reactors.

A novel hybrid enhanced oil recovery technique to enhance oil production from oil-wet carbonate reservoirs by combining electrical heating with nanofluid flooding

Enhanced Oil Recovery provides a promising technique to maximise fossil fuel recovery from existing resources, and when used in conjunction with Carbon Capture and Storage/Utilisation provides a way to support a transition to alternative cleaner fuels. A hybrid Enhanced Oil Recovery method by a combination of electrical heating and nanofluid flooding was applied to oil-wet carbonate reservoirs and assessed in terms of the oil production, zeta potential, contact angle, pellet compaction, interfacial tension, and pH values. The hybrid technique consisted of a combination of direct current (up to 30 V) and iron oxide (Fe2O3) or magnesium oxide (MgO) nanofluids. Both nanofluids were injected into oil-wet Austin chalk – our laboratory model of an oil-wet carbonate reservoir – and then electrical heating was started, or vice versa. Introducing electrical heating first increased oil recovery by up to 27% in seawater compared to 16% in deionised water. When Fe2O3 nanofluid was injected, oil recovery further increased to 32% in seawater and 24% in deionised water. The contact angle and zeta potential decreased from 124° to 36° and from −24.4 to −23.7 mV, respectively, when nanofluid was injected in seawater, leading to better nanofluid stability and penetration into the carbonate rock as shown by increased pellet porosity from 6.6% to 14.8%. Moreover, it was found that the interfacial tension was reduced from 72 to 32.7 mN/m in the pre-magnetised samples with Fe2O3 NPs injection compared to 33.2 mN/m in the samples with MgO injection. It was found from our experiments that the effect of the generated electricity on the surface charge was of a temporary nature as the zeta potential of the rock returned to its original value as soon as the power was disconnected. The mechanism underlying the hybrid Enhanced Oil Recovery EOR technique from the laboratory findings was found to be based on electrowetting and nanofluid adsorption. Results indicate that the technique is promising for further improving oil recovery and securing energy supply during the transition to net zero.

Severe compound events of low wind and cold temperature for the British power system

AbstractBritain's power system has shifted towards a major contribution from wind energy. However, wind is highly variable, and exceptionally low wind events can simultaneously occur with cold conditions, which increase demand. These conditions can pose a threat for the security of energy supply. Here we use bias‐corrected wind supply data and the estimated temperature‐related part of demand to analyse events of potential weather‐related energy shortfall based on the historic meteorological record. We conduct sensitivity studies with varying scenarios of Britain's total wind energy capacity and the temperature sensitivity of national demand. These scenarios are estimates for present‐day conditions as well as potential future changes of the power system. We apply a new methodology to estimate the potential severity of an event for the power system, and analyse the atmospheric conditions associated with the most severe events. We find that events of potentially severe shortfall are relatively rare and short‐lived, and often occur with an atmospheric pattern broadly resembling a negative North Atlantic Oscillation. This broad tendency emerges from a wide range of individual daily weather patterns that cause cold and still conditions. With an increase in wind capacity, it is likely that severe events will become rarer, although the most severe days of the record are relatively insensitive to changes in wind supply and temperature sensitivity of demand under our assumptions.

A pool-based electricity retail markets integrating renewable energy sources and electric vehicles in the presence of demand response program and conditional value at risk to enhance energy security

In restructured power systems, energy security has become a critical concern, driven by changes in laws and regulations and underscored by a defensive approach implemented by the independent system operator. This alignment highlights a strong interdependence between energy security, energy supply, and the economic aspects of energy management. The paper explores how consumers energy supply in restructured systems can be managed through Demand-Side Management (DSM) and Demand Response (DR) programs, considering economic efficiency and risk in scenarios that include Renewable Energy Sources (RES), suitable storage systems, and electric vehicles (EVs). An energy security index is introduced to evaluate the impact of DR programs on both electrical and thermal energy, considering the economic risks involved. A hybrid pool-based electricity retail market approach is utilized to optimize energy security, supply, and consumption. The significant roles of RES, storage systems, and EVs are highlighted in this context. Economic and environmental optimization is achieved using the Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) method, facilitating strategic decision-making under varied risk conditions. The energy supply security is further analyzed in the presence of electricity market retailers, exploring different pricing strategies. A Mixed-Integer Programming (MIP) model, implemented in GAMS software with the CONOPT solver, is used to examine pricing methods such as Time-of-Use (TOU) and real-time pricing. Findings reveal that DR programs lead to substantial increases in retailer profit and energy supply security value, with real-time pricing showing a significant 23.5 % increase in energy supply security value and a 24.5 % increase in retailer profit compared to fixed tariff pricing.

EU Energy Security After Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine – Substance, Strategy and Lobbying

The energy supply of individual countries and international organisations plays a key role for economic development. Energy is a specific good, where access to it must be stable and uninterrupted. The functioning of any country’s economy depends on a well-functioning energy sector, but unfortunately, over recent years, newer and newer threats to energy security have been emerging, in addition to the consumption of scarce natural resources. These include not only uncertain and unstable suppliers, but also natural disasters and cyber-attacks to which energy networks are increasingly exposed. Over the last few years, the issue of energy security has also become increasingly important in the EU. After Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, this policy acquired an entirely new dimension as the turbulence in EU energy markets contributed to significant economic difficulties including, among other factors, rising inflation in all EU Member States. Since then, the main priority of the EU’s energy policy has become the security and stability of energy supply. The aim of this article is to present and assess the effectiveness of the main EU measures taken to improve the EU’s energy security following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. These actions are extremely important to ensure long-term energy security in the EU, so it is essential that only the EU’s interests are taken into account. The article also highlights the dangers of the fossil fuel lobby and their influencing the EU’s decision-making process on energy security.