Secular Increase Research Articles

Intergenerational Changes in the Waist Circumference and Selected Associated Indicators among Children and Adolescents from Kraków (Poland), between 1983 and 2020

The aim of the study was to examine the direction of the secular changes in the waist and hips circumferences, as well as selected associated body proportions, among children and adolescents from Kraków, Poland. The study group included 8-18-year-olds examined in three cross-sectional studies (1983, 2010, and 2020). The analyzed characteristics included body height, circumferences of the waist and hips, which were used to calculate Waist-to-Hip Ratio (WHR), and Waist-to-Height Ratio (WHtR). There was a secular increase regarding the majority of the analyzed features, particularly for the younger children (i.e., prepubertal/early pubertal age). The trends were also especially evident when comparing the results of the 1983 series to the results of their peers examined in 2020. An opposite trend was noted in adolescent girls. The observed changes reflect the secular trend resulting from changes in body composition and fat distribution happening due to alterations in the lifestyle and socio-economic environment of the population over the years. It should also be stressed that the increase in the studied characteristics occurred mainly in younger children. This suggests that the observed changes may have resulted from a shift in the age of maturation and also from the personal and social motivators characteristic for late adolescence.

Adults Older Than Age 55 Engage in Less Diverse Activities Than Those 18 Years Ago.

Life-span perspectives have long acknowledged that individual functioning is shaped by historical and sociocultural contexts. Secular increases favoring recent cohorts are widely documented. However, little is known about secular trends in day-to-day activities and whether historical changes have occurred in younger and older adults alike. We compared data from 2 independent cohort samples of the daily diary portion of the Midlife in the United States Study obtained 18 years apart (1995/1996 cohort: n = 1,499 vs 2013/2014 cohort: n = 782) and identified case-matched cohorts (n = 757 per cohort) based on age, gender, education, and race. An activity diversity score was calculated based on 7 common daily activities, using Shannon's entropy method. We additionally examined the roles of age and other sociodemographic and health characteristics in cohort differences in activity diversity. Results revealed that the 2013/2014 cohort experienced lower daily activity diversity than the 1995/1996 cohort. Age was positively associated with activity diversity in the 1995/1996 cohort, whereas age was negatively associated with activity diversity in the 2013/2014 cohort. These associations were significant for those who were older than age 55. Cohorts also differed in the types of most dominant activities and average time spent on those activities. Findings show changes in the lifestyles and daily activities of U.S. adults across 2 decades. Contrasting to the common belief that today's adults may be healthier and more active, they seem engaging in less diverse daily activities, which can be a risk for future health outcomes.

AC transmission expansion planning based on self‐organized criticality to mitigate the risk of cascading blackouts

AbstractThe secular increase of load causes the evolving power system to operate near the critical margins. In such attitudes, the probability of cascading line outages, as the major reason for recent blackouts, is much more than expected. As a result, an innovative approach for optimal AC transmission expansion planning (TEP) to minimize the risk of cascading blackouts is presented in this paper. The proposed multi‐objective AC‐TEP problem minimizes the expected energy not supplied due to the total load shedding imposed on the system to mitigate the risk of cascading line outages along with the total investment and operational costs of the new transmission lines planned to be optimally added to the system. This probabilistic procedure is based on self‐organized criticality and considers the actual aspects of the power system such as reactive power and voltage concerns in the planning stage. The obtained Pareto front set provides the opportunity for the planners to choose the most preferred solution. The proposed method is implemented and verified in the IEEE 118‐bus test system and compared with two types of TEP approaches. The first one is a previously reported version of this work which was a simplified DC model of the problem and the second one is the conventional AC‐TEP model. The obtained results show the benefits of the proposed AC model on the mitigation of cascading line outages in a more realistic framework, considering the impact of reactive power and voltage stability concerns.

Changes in the prevalence of underweight, overweight, obesity and excessive adiposity among adolescents from Kraków (Poland) in the years 1983-2020.

Improved living conditions affect lifestyles and may contribute to the increased prevalence of overweight and obesity among adolescents. The aim of the study was to analyze changes in the prevalence of underweight, overweight, obesity as well as excessive adiposity among teenagers from Kraków (Poland). The study was conducted in four series in the years: 1983, 2000, 2010, and 2020. The study group included 1759 boys and 1699 girls aged 16-18 years. body mass index (BMI) was calculated on the basis of body height and weight. Adiposity was measured by bioimpedance method. Participants were grouped according to BMI categories using Cole's cut-off points and according to adiposity based on mean and standard deviations values. The significance of the differences between cohorts was assessed by the Chi-square test. Secular increase in the prevalence of underweight and overweight was observed among girls in most age groups. An increase in the prevalence of high body fat was also observed among 16- and 17-year-old girls - the opposite trend was noted in 18-year-old girls. Contemporary boys had an increased prevalence of overweight and obesity in each age group. There was a significant increase in the prevalence of body weight abnormalities in the study population. The observed results may be related to socio-economic changes that adversely affect the lifestyle of the society. The results are also important in terms of the health of future generations and may be helpful in the development of new prevention and intervention programs.

Microstratigraphic evidence of oceanographic and tectonic controls on hydrogenetic ferromanganese crusts in the NW Pacific seamounts

Selected hydrogenetic ferromanganese crusts were characterized at a microstratigraphic scale across various NW Pacific seamounts. The crusts encompassed over 100 sites, and were mostly found on old rock outcrops. The crusts also exhibit spatial compositional variation and are largely enriched in Co and Ni. However, the parameters controlling this compositional variation remain unclear. To address this issue, we characterized the microstructure, mineralogical and chemical compositions of seven carefully selected samples from topographic highs in the mid-latitudes on the Philippine Sea and Pacific plates and revealed the following trends: (1) the lower phosphatized layer formed in the middle Miocene or earlier and only on the Pacific Plate, (2) an increasing Co/Mn ratio with younger age from the substrate to the surface, and generally higher in the Pacific Plate than the Philippine Sea Plate, and (3) an increase of detrital quartz and plagioclase since approximately 5 Ma, with high Al/Mn ratios near the continental margin and to a lesser extent in pelagic areas. These results are partly congruent with those of other sediment cores from the other NW Pacific basins. Furthermore, the secular increase of Co and detrital minerals in the crust samples suggests a strong influence of oceanographic and tectonic conditions, especially the expansion of the oxygen minimum zone (OMZ) for the former and a significant input of detrital materials from the continents for the latter.

Seasonal suicide trends in adolescents in the US: Did they explain the apparent effect of the Netflix show 13 Reasons Why?

Controversy surrounds the effects of the first season of the Netflix show 13 Reasons Why on adolescent suicide in the United States. This research reexamined the question using more sensitive weekly suicide counts and more sensitive tests for seasonal changes in suicide. Weekly suicide counts for adolescents ages 10-19 and young people ages 20-29 obtained from CDC were analyzed from 2013 to 2018 NVSS Mortality Data using time series methods. Adolescents ages 10-19 exhibited seasonal changes in suicides that increased from March to April and that also paralleled the school year. The same seasonal pattern was evident in males ages 20-24. There was no evidence of an effect of 13 Reasons in male adolescent suicides in 2017 once seasonality, auto-correlation, and longer term trends were removed. Seasonal changes and secular increases can explain why previous studies observed suicide increases in March and April of 2017 in male adolescents. The association between school year and suicide suggests that stressors associated with schooling increase the risk of suicide in some youth. How to reduce these risks is an important focus for future research as is the need to understand the conditions under which fictional depictions of suicide lead to contagion.

Investigating Tetanus, Diphtheria, Acellular Pertussis Vaccination During Pregnancy and Risk of Congenital Anomalies.

This observational retrospective matched cohort study evaluated the safety of a prenatal tetanus, diphtheria, acellular pertussis (Tdap) vaccination, Boostrix. We previously reported on the risk of maternal and neonatal outcomes; here we report on the risk of congenital anomalies in infants at birth through 6months of age. The study included pregnant Kaiser Permanente Southern California members. Women who received the Tdap vaccine on or after the 27th week of pregnancy between January 2018 and January 2019 were matched to women who were pregnant between January 2012 and December 2014 and were not vaccinated with Tdap during pregnancy. Unadjusted and adjusted relative risks (aRRs) with 95% confidence intervals were estimated by Poisson regression. Quantitative secular trend analyses, from 2011 to 2017, were conducted on congenital anomalies with a statistically significant aRR > 1. The analysis consisted of 16,350 and 16,088 live-born infants in the Tdap-exposed and unexposed cohorts, respectively. Of the 14 congenital anomaly body systems evaluated, 8 (eye, ear/face/neck, respiratory, upper gastrointestinal, genital, renal, musculoskeletal, integument) had statistically significant elevated aRRs, with point estimates ranging from 1.17 to 2.02. The observed elevated aRRs were consistent with their respective secular increases over time. Cautious interpretation of these findings is warranted as these increases may have resulted from improved identification and diagnosis. Furthermore, the biological plausibility of an association between maternal vaccine exposure in the third trimester of pregnancy and birth defects is low. The overall study findings support the safety of maternal immunization with Boostrix during the third trimester of pregnancy. ClinicalTrials.gov identifier, NCT03463577.

HD 60431, the CP2 star with the shortest rotational period

Context. CP2 stars show periodic photometric, spectroscopic, and magnetic variations with the rotational period. They are generally slow rotators, with rotational periods exceeding half a day, except for the late B-type star HD 60431, which has an unusually short rotational period of 0.4755 days. As slow rotation is deemed a necessary criterion for the establishment of chemical peculiarities, this characteristic renders HD 60431 a special object that might offer valuable insight into, and constraints on, the formation and evolution of CP2 stars. Aims. The aims of our study are to analyse the light variability, derive atmospheric abundances, and determine the detailed physical parameters of HD 60431 to confirm its status as the CP2 star with the shortest known rotational period, with special emphasis on the rotational period evolution. Methods. Photometric indices and high-resolution spectroscopy were employed to derive the physical parameters, evolutionary status, and atmospheric abundances of our target star. A light variability study was carried out using combined sets of photometric data from ground- and space-based facilities. A circularly polarised spectrum was employed to check the presence of a longitudinal magnetic field in the star. Results. With an age of only 10 Myr, an effective temperature of Teff = 13 000 ± 300 K, surface gravity log g = 4.10 ± 0.10, radius R = 1.97 ± 0.09 R⊙, and mass M = 3.1 ± 0.1 M⊙, HD 60431 is situated close to the zero age main sequence; it is a member of the open cluster NGC 2547 in the Vela OB2 complex. We confirm its status as a classical late B-type CP2 star showing strong overabundances of Mg (1.8 dex), Si (1.9 dex), Ca (1.6 dex), Ti (2.2 dex), and Fe (1.8 dex). No conclusive evidence for the presence of a strong magnetic field was found in the available spectroscopic data. The light curve of HD 60431 has remained constant over the last four decades. The available photometric time series data confirm the short rotational period and indicate a slight secular increase in the rotational period of Ṗ = 2.36(19) × 10−10 = 7.5(6) ms yr−1. The following quadratic ephemeris has been derived: HJDmin(E) = 2 459 212.969 35 + 0. d475 516 64 E + 5. d62 × 10−11E2. Conclusions. HD 60431 is indeed the CP2 star with the shortest known rotational period. Theory needs to explain the establishment and maintenance of chemical peculiarities in such a young and fast-rotating object. Our results furthermore raise the question of whether period variability on timescales significantly shorter than stellar evolution is inherent to all magnetic chemically peculiar stars.

Income inequality and house prices across US states

This paper studies the secular increase in US income inequality and its relation to growing house prices over the past three decades. We explore income inequality’s effect on house prices based on a high-frequency (quarterly) data-set for all US states, including the District of Columbia. The analysis shows that higher income inequality decreases the growth rate of house prices. However, the relationship differs for the Northeast region. We find higher income inequality corresponds with higher house prices across the states within the Northeast region.

Secular increase in the prevalence of gestational diabetes and its associated adverse pregnancy outcomes from 2014 to 2021 in Hebei province, China.

We aimed to investigate the secular prevalence of gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) and evaluate its adverse pregnancy outcomes among pregnant women in Hebei province, China. We analyzed the data from the monitoring information management system for pregnant women in 22 hospitals of Hebei province, China. In this study, 366,212 individuals with singleton live births from 2014 to 2021 were included, of whom 25,995 were diagnosed with gestational diabetes. We described the incidence of common complications and further analyzed the clinical characteristics in GDM patients and the relationship between GDM and adverse pregnancy outcomes. The top 3 pregnancy complications in Hebei province are anemia, gestational hypertension, and GDM. The average incidence of GDM was 7.10% (25,995/366,212). The incidence rate of GDM significantly increased from 2014 to 2021 (χ2 trend = 7,140.663, P < 0.001). The top 3 regions with GDM incidence were Baoding (16.60%), Shijiazhuang (8.00%), and Tangshan (3.80%). The incidence of GDM in urban pregnant women (10.6%) is higher than that in rural areas (3.7%).The difference between the GDM and Non-GDM groups was statistically significant in terms of maternal age, gravidity, parity, education level, and incidence of pregnancy complications (gestational hypertension, heart diseases, and anemia) (P < 0.05). GDM individuals were at significantly increased risk of most assessed adverse pregnancy outcomes, including premature delivery, Cesarean delivery, uterine inertia, neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) admission, Apgar (activity-pulse-grimace-appearance-respiration) score at 1min, and macrosomia (P < 0.05). The multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that GDM was an independent risk factor in terms of premature birth, Cesarean delivery, uterine inertia, placental abruption, NICU admission, and macrosomia. The risk of adverse pregnancy outcome in pregnant women with GDM is significantly increased. In order to reduce the occurrence of adverse pregnancy outcomes, effective interventions are needed.

Prevalence of dementia in Latin America and Caribbean countries: Systematic review and meta-analyses exploring age, sex, rurality, and education as possible determinants.

Studies have shown that the prevalence of dementia in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) may be higher than in high-income countries. Thus, we sought to systematically analyse the prevalence of dementia and explore possible drivers that lead to this disparity in LAC countries. We searched Pubmed, Web of Knowledge, Scopus, Lilacs, and SciELO for studies on dementia in LAC countries published in English, Spanish, and Portuguese. Random-effects model was applied. Thirty-one studies from 17 LAC countries were included. Pooled prevalence of all-cause dementia was 10.66%. Further analyses with studies providing raw prevalence by sex, area, and educational level showed a higher prevalence for women (8.97%) than for men (7.26%). Also, dementia prevalence was higher for rural than urban residents (7.71% vs 8.68%, respectively). Participants without formal education presented more than double the prevalence of dementia (21.37%) compared to those with at least one year of formal education (9.88%). Studies with more recent data collection showed higher dementia prevalence. Our findings suggest a high global dementia prevalence in LAC countries and an unequal burden of dementia for women, lower-educated, and rural residents. Secular increases in dementia prevalence call for greater public health efforts for preventative actions.

Milton Friedman and the Road to Monetarism: A Review Essay

Milton Friedman and the Road to Monetarism: A Review Essay

Adult Female Height and the Gender Gap in Chile, 1860s–1990s

Abstract Analysis of a sample of around 4,600 women born between the 1860s and the 1990s finds that the height of adult females increased by about 5 cm, primarily from the 1860s to the 1880s and during the second half of the twentieth century—representing the greatest known improvement in women’s biological welfare in Chilean history. Chilean women have never been as tall as they are today. The secular height increase was higher for men than for women, but only slightly. The increasing sexual dimorphism in stature since the 1920s (achieving its highest value ever during the 1990s) suggests that male stature is more sensitive than female stature to changes in environmental conditions. Adult female heights also correlate with positive gradients in literacy and occupational status, and negative height differentials are in evidence between the native (Mapuche) population and the population with European ancestry.

Body height, weight, and Body Mass Index - magnitude and pace of secular changes in children and adolescents from Kraków (Poland) between 1983 and 2020.

The aim of this study was to analyze the occurrence and pace of secular trends regarding body height, weight, and Body Mass Index (BMI) among children and adolescents from Kraków (Poland) examined in 1983, 2000, 2010, and 2020. The study group consisted of 17 407 individuals (8650 girls and 8757 boys) aged 3-18 included in four cross-sectional studies conducted in 1983, 2000, 2010, and 2020.Analyzed anthropometric characteristics included body height (measured according to Martin's technique, with an anthropometer) and body weight. BMI was calculated as follows: body weight (kg)/body height2 (m). Results of the current study suggest that there was a cessation of previously observed secular increase of the body height in the examined population in the recent decade. Additionally, secular changes regarding body height, body mass, and BMI occurred noticeably slower in the recent decade compared to the previous years. In conclusion, the rapid increase of body height in the years 1983-2000 and later secular increase of the body mass and BMI in 2000-2010 were probably associated mainly with significant socio-economic progress of the country. On the other hand, deceleration of those trends in 2010-2020, especially in regards to body height, may be associated with reaching the maximum genetically attainable body height in the examined population.

North‐South Differences in Under‐Ice Primary Production in the Chukchi Sea From 1988 to 2018

AbstractAs Arctic sea ice has thinned and begun to retreat earlier in the year, there have been substantial changes in the timing and magnitude of regional net primary production (NPP). Most notably, field, remote sensing, and model‐based studies have demonstrated that massive under‐ice phytoplankton blooms (UIBs) contribute substantially to annual NPP and can even drive increases in sedimentary nitrogen recycling and loss through coupled partial nitrification‐denitrification. In this study, we used a 1‐D biogeochemical model (CAOS‐GO) to compare the magnitude of NPP associated with UIBs in the northern and southern Chukchi Sea between 1988 and 2018. While UIBs were critical in driving interannual variation and secular increases in annual NPP and sedimentary nitrification and denitrification in the northern Chukchi Sea, UIBs were far less important at our southern site. As the length of the under‐ice (UI) period diminished between 1988 and 2018 in the southern Chukchi Sea, there was a decrease in the amount of NPP produced during the UI period. Despite higher rates of both annual NPP and denitrification at the southern site, there were no secular trends in these rates over time. Our results indicate that, as sea ice continues to retreat earlier, the impact of UIBs on the biogeochemistry of the Chukchi Sea is likely to diminish.

Sacral Spina Bifida Occulta: A Frequency Analysis of Secular Change

Substantial relaxation of natural selection beginning around 1900 changed the mutation/selec­tion balance of modern genetic material, producing an increase in variable anatomical structures. While multiple structures have been affected, the temporal increase in variations of the sacrum, specifically, ‘Sa­cral Spina Bifida Occulta,’ have been reliably demonstrated on a localised scale. Calculation of largescale frequency has been hindered by the localised nature of these publications, the morphological variability of this variation, and potential pathological associations, which have produced divergent classifications, and conflicting reported rates of occurrence. A systematic review of the reported literature was conducted to provide an objective analysis of Sacral Spina Bifida Occulta frequency from 2500 BCE to the present. This review was designed to compensate for observed inconsistencies in reporting and to ascertain, for the first time, the temporal trajectory of this secular trend. A systematic review of Sacral Spina Bifida Occulta lit­erature was conducted through the strict use of clinical meta-analysis criteria. Publications were retrieved from four databases: PubMed, Embase, the Adelaide University Library database, and Google Scholar. Data were separated into three historical groups, (1 = &lt;1900, 2 = 1900 to 1980 and 3 = &gt;1980), and frequency outcomes compared, to determine temporal rates of occurrence. A total of 39/409 publications were included in the final analysis, representing data for 16,167 sacra, spanning a period of 4,500 years. Statistically significant results were obtained, with total open S1 frequen­cy increasing from 2.34%, (79 to 1900CE), to 4.80%, (1900 to 1980CE) and to 5.43% (&gt;1980CE). These increases were significant at p&lt;0.0001, with Chi-squared analysis. A clear secular increase in the global frequency of Sacral Spina Bifida Occulta has been demonstrated from 1900 to the present. This research provides a novel and adaptable framework for the future assessment of variation distribution, with impor­tant implications for the fields of biological anthropology and bioarchaeology.

Data-based estimates of interannual sea–air CO&amp;lt;sub&amp;gt;2&amp;lt;/sub&amp;gt; flux variations 1957–2020 and their relation to environmental drivers

Abstract. This study considers year-to-year and decadal variations in as well as secular trends of the sea–air CO2 flux over the 1957–2020 period, as constrained by the pCO2 measurements from the SOCATv2021 database. In a first step, we relate interannual anomalies in ocean-internal carbon sources and sinks to local interannual anomalies in sea surface temperature (SST), the temporal changes in SST (dSST/dt), and squared wind speed (u2), employing a multi-linear regression. In the tropical Pacific, we find interannual variability to be dominated by dSST/dt, as arising from variations in the upwelling of colder and more carbon-rich waters into the mixed layer. In the eastern upwelling zones as well as in circumpolar bands in the high latitudes of both hemispheres, we find sensitivity to wind speed, compatible with the entrainment of carbon-rich water during wind-driven deepening of the mixed layer and wind-driven upwelling. In the Southern Ocean, the secular increase in wind speed leads to a secular increase in the carbon source into the mixed layer, with an estimated reduction in the sink trend in the range of 17 % to 42 %. In a second step, we combined the result of the multi-linear regression and an explicitly interannual pCO2-based additive correction into a “hybrid” estimate of the sea–air CO2 flux over the period 1957–2020. As a pCO2 mapping method, it combines (a) the ability of a regression to bridge data gaps and extrapolate into the early decades almost void of pCO2 data based on process-related observables and (b) the ability of an auto-regressive interpolation to follow signals even if not represented in the chosen set of explanatory variables. The “hybrid” estimate can be applied as an ocean flux prior for atmospheric CO2 inversions covering the whole period of atmospheric CO2 data since 1957.

Changing ocean seasonal cycle escalates destructive marine heatwaves in a warming climate

Marine heatwaves (MHWs) can cause various adverse effects on marine ecosystems associated with complicated social ramifications. It has been well established that the gradually rising sea surface temperature (SST) due to anthropogenic carbon emission will cause an increase of the MHW duration and intensity. However, for species with strong adaptation capacity or mobility, MHW changes due to the altered SST variability under greenhouse warming are more crucial but so far remain poorly assessed. Under the high carbon emission scenario, we show that the cumulative duration (intensity) of MHWs, with the effect of secular SST increase excluded, is projected to be 60% (100%) higher by the end of this century than in the 1990s due to an amplified SST seasonal cycle. This increase becomes more evident for stronger MHWs, reaching up to 8 (30) folds for the extreme MHW category. The amplified SST seasonal cycle also causes pronounced seasonality of MHWs, making them more active in summer-autumn than winter-spring. Our results suggest that MHWs are likely to have increasingly devastating impacts on a wide range of marine species in the future without taking effective steps for carbon emission reduction.

Has Political Theory Become More Political? Evidence and Stakes for Future Theory

ABSTRACTThis article presents evidence for a secular increase in political engagement in political theory from 1974 to 2019 and analyzes the implications of this growth. Analysis of 385 theory articles published across three periods (i.e., 1974–1976, 2005–2007, and 2017–2019) found a near doubling in topicality among theory articles published in Polity, American Political Science Review, and Political Theory since the 1970s. This change has been substantial, statistically significant, and previously unnoted in the literature. I suggest that the shift toward topicality entails and is entailed by the production of “real events” amenable to and consistent with the theoretical approaches in which successive generations of theorists have been trained. Finally, I explain this shift toward topicality with respect to theory’s responsiveness to real events and to rising levels of professionalization within the field.

Firm pay dynamics

We study the nature of firm pay dynamics. To this end, we propose a statistical model that extends the seminal framework by Abowd et al. (1999) to allow for idiosyncratically time-varying firm pay policies. We estimate the model using linked employer–employee data for Sweden from 1985 to 2016. By drawing on detailed firm financials data, we show that firms that become more productive and accumulate capital raise pay, whereas firms lower pay as they add workers. A secular increase in firm-year pay dispersion in Sweden since 1985 is accounted for by greater persistence of firm pay among incumbent firms as well as greater dispersion in firm pay among entrant firms, as opposed to more volatile firm pay.