Second Wave Of Coronavirus Disease 2019 Research Articles

Conditions for a Second Wave of COVID-19 Due to Interactions Between Disease Dynamics and Social Processes

In May 2020, many jurisdictions around the world began lifting physical distancing restrictions against the spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). This gave rise to concerns about a possible second wave of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). These restrictions were imposed in response to the presence of COVID-19 in populations, usually with the broad support of affected populations. However, the lifting of restrictions is also a population response to the accumulating socio-economic impacts of restrictions, and lifting of restrictions is expected to increase the number of COVID-19 cases, in turn. This suggests that the COVID-19 pandemic exemplifies a coupled behaviour-disease system where disease dynamics and social dynamics are locked in a mutual feedback loop. Here we develop a minimal mathematical model of the interaction between social support for school and workplace closure and the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2. We find that a second wave of COVID-19 occurs across a broad range of plausible model input parameters governing epidemiological and social conditions, on account of instabilities generated by behaviour-disease interactions. The second wave tends to have a higher peak than the first wave when the efficacy of restrictions is greater than 40% and when the basic reproduction number R_0 is less than 2.4. Surprisingly, we also found that a lower R_0 value makes a second wave more likely, on account of behavioural feedback (although a lower R_0 does not necessarily cause more infections, in total). We conclude that second waves of COVID-19 can be interpreted as the outcome of nonlinear interactions between disease dynamics and social behaviour. We also suggest that further development of mathematical models exploring behaviour-disease interactions could help us better understand how social and epidemiological conditions together determine how pandemics unfold.

The second wave of COVID-19 is knocking at the doors: have we learned the lesson?

In light of escalating rates of COVID-19 cases, the world stands stunned. The health, social, and global economic situation continues to deteriorate. The seriousness of the situation became evident to most people, yet no one had a radical solution. Scientifically, there is no sure treatment for viral infections other than strengthening the immune system. Therefore, the idea of ​​a vaccine is the most appropriate to reduce infections. However, vaccines will not be accessible to everyone, considering the genetic changes that the virus may create later. The idea of ​​re-imposing a global quarantine, with international leadership for a limited period, is emerging as a strategic alternative, on the condition that it should be launched simultaneously in all countries of the world. To ensure the quarantine's success, all countries must adhere to the comments of the World Health Organization and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
 
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Time-dependent changes in the seroprevalence of COVID-19 in asymptomatic liver disease outpatients in an area in Japan undergoing a second wave of COVID-19.

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a serious public health concern, with unclarified prevalence in Japan. Concomitant liver disease could increase the severity of COVID-19 disease, and chronic liver disease patients sometimes require frequent admission and gastrointestinal endoscopy. Thus, clarifying the prevalence of asymptomatic COVID-19 in outpatients with liver disease is essential for preventing nosocomial infections. We aimed to clarify the time-dependent changes in COVID-19 seroprevalence in liver disease outpatients, who were asymptomatic for COVID-19, in an area of Japan experiencing a second wave of COVID-19. We included the preserved sera of 100, 300, and 300 consecutive liver disease outpatients, who were asymptomatic for COVID-19, from May 2019, March 2020, and May 2020, respectively. The sera were analyzed immunochromatographically to detect immunoglobulin G against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) (KURABO) and by Elecsys Anti-SARS-CoV-2-assay (Roche Diagnostics). Analysis of 100 cases from May 2019, before COVID-19 became pandemic, revealed that the specificity of immunochromatographic tests and Elecsys were 98% (95% confidence interval [CI], 93-99.8%) and 100% (95% CI, 97-100%), respectively. Analysis of 300 cases from March 2020 revealed a seroprevalence of 0.3% (1/300; 95% CI, 0-1.8%) for COVID-19 by Elecsys Anti-SARS-CoV-2 assay. Analysis of 300 cases from May 2020 revealed a seroprevalence of 0% (0/300; 95% CI, 0-1.0%). The Elecsys Anti-SARS-CoV-2 assay has high specificity. The cumulative seroprevalence of COVID-19 by the Elecsys Anti-SARS-CoV-2 assay in outpatients with liver disease in Sapporo, who were asymptomatic for COVID-19, was 0.17% (1/600; 95% CI, 0.0-0.9%) until May 2020.

Ohio Response to COVID-19 and Its Impact on Interventional Pain Management Practices

Background: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has drastically altered daily living and medical care for Ohio residents and the practice of medicine for the interventional pain management physician. As a state, Ohio tends to be demographically representative of the broader US population. Objective: Reviewing the efforts deployed by Ohio to flatten the COVID-19 infection curve and reduce the spread of the novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is an important component of determining optimal procedures for mitigating the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods: Over the course of several announcements and orders during the months of March and April, new policies were put into place to prevent COVID-19 transmission, which included efforts to facilitate social distancing and ensure the health care system could manage the number of COVID-19 cases at peak infection rate. Efforts directed toward medical providers included delay of elective procedures, expansion of telehealth options, and new temporary guidance for prescribing controlled substances. Results: The Ohio COVID-19 containment approach resulted in a substantial reduction in COVID-19 cases compared with early models of disease spread, and the state has begun a phased reopening. Continued vigilance in applying social distancing and infection control measures will be a critical component of preventing or reducing the impact of a second wave of COVID-19 in Ohio. Limitations: A narrative review with paucity of literature. Key words: COVID-19, infection rates, mitigating effects, pandemic, infection control

Same-Day Consent for Regional Anesthesia Clinical Research Trials: It's About Time.

Same-Day Consent for Regional Anesthesia Clinical Research Trials: It's About Time.

An Orthopaedic Department's Response to the COVID-19 Health-Care Crisis: Indirect and Direct Actions with Thoughts for the Future.

An Orthopaedic Department's Response to the COVID-19 Health-Care Crisis: Indirect and Direct Actions with Thoughts for the Future.

Beware of the second wave of COVID-19

The outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), which began in Wuhan, China, in late 2019, has spread to 203 countries as of March 30, 2020, and has been officially declared a global pandemic.1 With unprecedented public health interventions, local transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) appears now to have been contained in China. Multiple countries are now experiencing the first wave of the COVID-19 epidemic; thus, gaining an understanding of how these interventions prevented the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in China is urgent.

Stemming the flow: how much can the Australian smartphone app help to control COVID-19?

Our objective is to assess the potential contribution of the Australian Government's mobile smartphone tracing app (COVIDSafe) to the sustained control of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Development and analysis of a system dynamics model. To define the pandemic context and specify model-building parameters, we searched for literature on COVID-19, its epidemiology in Australia, case finding processes, and factors that might affect community acceptance of the COVIDSafe smartphone app for contact tracing. We then developed a system dynamics model of COVID-19 based on a modified susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered compartmental model structure, using initial pandemic data and published information on virus behaviour to determine parameter values. We applied the model to examine factors influencing the projected trends: the extent of viral testing, community participation in social distancing, and the level of uptake of the COVIDSafe app. Modelling suggests that a second COVID-19 wave will occur if social distancing declines (i.e. if the average number of contacts made by each individual each day increases) and the rate of testing declines. The timing and size of the second wave will depend on the rate of decrease in social distancing and the decline in testing rates. At the app uptake level of approximately 27% (current at 20 May 2020), with a monthly 50% reduction in social distancing (i.e. the average number of contacts per day doubling every 30 days until they reach pre-social distancing rates) and a 5% decline in testing, the app would reduce the projected total number of new cases during April-December 2020 by one-quarter. If uptake reaches the possible maximum of 61%, the reduction could be more than half. Maintenance of a large-scale testing regimen for COVID-19 and widespread community practice of social distancing are vital. The COVIDSafe smartphone app has the potential to be an important adjunct to testing and social distancing. Depending on the level of community uptake of the app, it could have a significant mitigating effect on a second wave of COVID-19 in Australia.

The Burden of Disease due to COVID-19 in Korea Using Disability-Adjusted Life Years.

BackgroundThe world is currently experiencing a pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). In Korea, as in other countries, the number of confirmed cases and deaths due to COVID-19 have been rising. This study aimed to calculate the burden of disease due to COVID-19 in Korea.MethodsWe used data on confirmed cases and deaths due to COVID-19 between January 20 and April 24, 2020 provided by the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the local governments and the public media to determine disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) by sex and age. Morbidity was estimated directly among the confirmed, cured, and fatal cases. Disability weights were adopted from previous similar causes on the severity of COVID-19 for the years of life lived with disability (YLDs). The years of life lost (YLLs) were calculated using the standard life expectancy from the 2018 life tables for each sex and age.ResultsThe YLDs were higher in females (155.2) than in males (105.1), but the YLLs were higher in males (1,274.3) than in females (996.4). The total disease burden attributable to COVID-19 in Korea during the study period, was estimated to be 2,531.0 DALYs, and 4.930 DALYs per 100,000 population. The YLDs and the YLLs constituted 10.3% and 89.7% of the total DALYs, respectively. The DALYs per 100,000 population were highest in people aged ≥ 80 years, followed by those aged 70–79, 60–69, and 50–59 years, but the incidence was the highest in individuals aged 20–29 years.ConclusionThis study provided the estimates of DALYs due to COVID-19 in Korea. Most of the disease burden from COVID-19 was derived from YLL; this indicates that decision-makers should focus and make an effort on reducing fatality for preparing the second wave of COVID-19.

Current status and future perspective of coronavirus disease 2019: A review

A novel infectious disease named coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) first emerged in Wuhan, China, in December 2019 and rapidly spread worldwide. In March 2020 the World Health Organization declared a global pandemic which is the worst global public health crisis in over 100 years. On 14 June 2020, almost eight million confirmed cases of COVID-19 and more than 430,000 deaths globally were reported. Over 200 countries have been affected so far. COVID-19 is caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). In the absence of specific therapy and vaccine, effective infection control intervention, particularly self-hygiene and social distancing, is the only way to prevent the spread of SARS-CoV-2. The lessons learned from this pandemic will be useful for successful management of the second wave of COVID-19 which is expected in autumn or winter.