Abstract Background Medical rescue therapy (MRT) is effective in intravenous corticosteroid refractory acute severe ulcerative colitis (ASUC). Our primary objective was to identify parameters which identify initial and sustained response to MRT. Methods Two cohorts were studied retrospectively. Analysis of 66 adult ASUC admissions receiving MRT between 2015-19 at Gold Coast University Hospital and Logan Hospital was first performed. Clinical, endoscopic and laboratory data were collected. Response was defined as avoiding colectomy during the same admission. Univariable and multivariable logistic regression were employed to identify predictors of response. The predictors were validated in 99 patients admitted to Gold Coast University Hospital and Sunshine Coast University Hospital between 2020-23. Results In the development cohort, 55/66 patients (83.3%) responded to MRT. On multivariable analysis, UCEIS score at admission [Coef - 0.105 (-0.19 to – 0.007), p=0.03] and CRP on day 3 of post commencement of MRT (CRP on day R+3) [Coef -0.004 (-0.0008 to -0.0004), p=0.03] identified response to MRT. All patients (n=20) with a UCEIS score < 6 [Sensitivity 41.7%, Specificity 100%, PPV 100%, NPV 26.3%] and 97.1 % (33/34) patients with a CRP on day R+3 < 22mg/L responded to MRT [Sensitivity 71.7%, Specificity 90%, PPV 97.1%, NPV 40.9%]. In the validation cohort, 93/99 (94%) patients responded to MRT; 92.6% (25/27) with a UCEIS score < 6 [Sensitivity 26.9%, Specificity 66.7%, PPV 92.6%, NPV 5.6%] and 100% (72/72) patients with CRP on day R+3 < 22mg/L responded to MRT [Sensitivity 85.7%, Specificity 100%, PPV 100%, NPV 33.3%]. In patients with both UCEIS <6 and CRP on day R+3 < 22mg/L, 15/15 (100%) and 18/18 (100%), in the development and validation cohorts respectively, responded to MRT. At 12 months after hospitalisation, in the development cohort, 45 (68.1%) patients had avoided colectomy. Of the patients with a UCEIS score <6, 19 (95%) patients and 28/34 (82.4%) patients with CRP on day R+3 < 22mg/L avoided colectomy. In the validation cohort, at 12 months, 84 (84.9%) patients had avoided colectomy. Of the patients with a UCEIS score < 6, 24/27 (88.9%) and 66/72 (91.7%) patients with CRP on day R+3 < 22mg/L had avoided a colectomy at 12 months. In patients with both UCEIS <6 and CRP on day R+3 < 22mg/L, 14/15 (93.3%) and 17/18 (94.4%), in the development and validation cohorts respectively, had avoided colectomy at 12 months. Conclusion UCEIS score < 6 at admission and CRP on day R+3 < 22mg/L predict response to second-line MRT and colectomy is extremely unlikely either on the index admission or within 12 months.
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