Second Half Of March Research Articles

Cold spell variability in Europe in relation to the degree of climate continentalism in 1981–2018 period

AbstractSeasonal and multiannual variability of the number, duration and severity of cold spells in Europe were analysed in this paper in cold seasons starting with 1981/1982 through 2017/2018. Data were used from seven weather stations characterised by different degrees of climate continentalism. Cold spells did not occur in the oceanic climate of southeastern England. In the Netherlands only a few cold spells were identified in the entire study period lasting 31 or 67 days in total, depending on the method used. The number, duration and severity of cold spells increased toward the east. In the continental climate of the European part of Russia, 163 or 74 cold spells were identified. Their total duration exceeded 1300 days. In Western Europe the potential period when cold spells occurred lasted about 50 days, from the middle of December to the beginning of February. In Eastern Europe the period when cold spells occurred lasted about 140 days, from the beginning of November to the second half of March. The longest and the most severe cold spells were concentrated in four periods: 1984/1985 to 1986/1987, 1993/1994 to 1996/1997, 2001/2002 to 2005/2006 and 2009/2010 to 2011/2012. Statistically significant trends in the number, duration and severity of cold spells were not evident for the locations analysed over the period from 1981 to present.

Holding a Conference Online and Live due to Covid-19

The joint EDBT/ICDT conference (International Conference on Extending Database Technology / International Conference on Database Theory) is a well established conference series on data management, with annual meetings in the second half of March that attract 250 to 300 delegates. Three weeks before EDBT/ICDT 2020 was planned to take place in Copenhagen, the rapidly developing Covid-19 pandemic led to the decision to cancel the face-to-face event. In the interest of the research community, it was decided to move the conference online while trying to preserve as much of the real-life experience as possible. As far as we know, we are one of the first conferences that moved to a fully synchronous online experience due to the COVID- 19 outbreak. By fully synchronous, we mean that participants jointly listened to presentations, had live Q&A, and attended other live events associated with the conference. In this report, we share our decisions, experiences, and lessons learned.

High sensitivity troponin and COVID-19 outcomes

Background Recent reports have demonstrated high troponin levels in patients affected with COVID-19. In the present study, we aimed to determine the association between admission and peak troponin levels and COVID-19 outcomes. Methods This was an observational multi-ethnic multi-centre study in a UK cohort of 434 patients admitted and diagnosed COVID-19 positive, across six hospitals in London, UK during the second half of March 2020. Results Myocardial injury, defined as positive troponin during admission was observed in 288 (66.4%) patients. Age (OR: 1.68 [1.49–1.88], p < .001), hypertension (OR: 1.81 [1.10–2.99], p = .020) and moderate chronic kidney disease (OR: 9.12 [95% CI: 4.24–19.64], p < .001) independently predicted myocardial injury. After adjustment, patients with positive peak troponin were more likely to need non-invasive and mechanical ventilation (OR: 2.40 [95% CI: 1.27–4.56], p = .007, and OR: 6.81 [95% CI: 3.40–13.62], p < .001, respectively) and urgent renal replacement therapy (OR: 4.14 [95% CI: 1.34–12.78], p = .013). With regards to events, and after adjustment, positive peak troponin levels were independently associated with acute kidney injury (OR: 6.76 [95% CI: 3.40–13.47], p < .001), venous thromboembolism (OR: 11.99 [95% CI: 3.20–44.88], p < .001), development of atrial fibrillation (OR: 10.66 [95% CI: 1.33–85.32], p = .026) and death during admission (OR: 2.40 [95% CI: 1.34–4.29], p = .003). Similar associations were observed for admission troponin. In addition, median length of stay in days was shorter for patients with negative troponin levels: 8 (5–13) negative, 14 (7–23) low-positive levels and 16 (10–23) high-positive (p < .001). Conclusions Admission and peak troponin appear to be predictors for cardiovascular and non-cardiovascular events and outcomes in COVID-19 patients, and their utilisation may have an impact on patient management.

Effects of the COVID-19 Epidemic on Hospital Admissions for Non-Communicable Diseases in a Large Italian University-Hospital: A Descriptive Case-Series Study.

Background: Concern is growing about the negative consequences that response measures to the COVID-19 epidemic may have on the management of other medical conditions. Methods: A retrospective descriptive case-series study conducted at a large University-hospital in northern Italy, an area severely hit by the epidemic. Results: Between 23 February and 14 May 2020, 4160 (52%) COVID-19 and 3778 (48%) non-COVID-19 patients were hospitalized. COVID-19 admissions peaked in the second half of March, a period characterized by an extremely high mortality rate (27.4%). The number of admissions in 2020 was similar to 2019, but COVID-19 patients gradually occupied all available beds. Comparison between COVID-19 and non-COVID-19 admissions in 2020 revealed significant differences concerning all age classes and gender. Specifically, COVID-19 patients were older, predominantly male, and exhibited more comorbidities. Overall, admissions for non-communicable diseases (NCDs) in 2020 vs. 2019 dropped by approximately one third. Statistically significant reductions were observed for acute myocardial infarction (−78, −33.9%), cerebrovascular disease (−235, −41.5%), and cancer (−368, −31.9%). While the first two appeared equally distributed between COVID-19 and non-COVID-19 patients, chronic NCDs were statistically significantly more frequent in the former, except cancer, which was less frequent in COVID-19 patients. Conclusions: Prevention of collateral damage to patients with other diseases should be an integral part of epidemic response plans. Prospective cohort studies are needed to understand the long-term impact.

COVID-19 prediction using LSTM algorithm: GCC case study.

Coronavirus-19 (COVID-19) is the black swan of 2020. Still, the human response to restrain the virus is also creating massive ripples through different systems, such as health, economy, education, and tourism. This paper focuses on research and applying Artificial Intelligence (AI) algorithms to predict COVID-19 propagation using the available time-series data and study the effect of the quality of life, the number of tests performed, and the awareness of citizens on the virus in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries at the Gulf area. So we focused on cases in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA), United Arab of Emirates (UAE), Kuwait, Bahrain, Oman, and Qatar. For this aim, we accessed the time-series real-datasets collected from Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering (JHU CSSE). The timeline of our data is from January 22, 2020 to January 25, 2021. We have implemented the proposed model based on Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) with ten hidden units (neurons) to predict COVID-19 confirmed and death cases. From the experimental results, we confirmed that KSA and Qatar would take the most extended period to recover from the COVID-19 virus, and the situation will be controllable in the second half of March 2021 in UAE, Kuwait, Oman, and Bahrain. Also, we calculated the root mean square error (RMSE) between the actual and predicted values of each country for confirmed and death cases, and we found that the best values for both confirmed and death cases are 320.79 and 1.84, respectively, and both are related to Bahrain. While the worst values are 1768.35 and 21.78, respectively, and both are related to KSA. On the other hand, we also calculated the mean absolute relative errors (MARE) between the actual and predicted values of each country for confirmed and death cases, and we found that the best values for both confirmed and deaths cases are 37.76 and 0.30, and these are related to Kuwait and Qatar respectively. While the worst values are 71.45 and 1.33, respectively, and both are related to KSA.

An Analysis on the Distribution of Floating Seaweed in the East China Sea and Southern Yellow Sea in 2015–the Case of Sargassum observed by the Geostationary Ocean Color Imager

In early 2015, a large amount of brown seaweed, known as Sargassum horneri macroalgae, was piled up along the shore of Jeju Island and the southwest islands of the Korean Peninsula. This event was associated with a huge bloom of floating Sargassum in the East China Sea (ECS) and southern Yellow Sea (SYS). Ship surveys or aerial surveys can only cover a limited space and are time consuming and expensive. This study aims to capture temporal variation in the geographical distribution of floating S. horneri using satellite imagery obtained from the Geostationary Ocean Color Imager (GOCI). The GOCI acquires eight images a day with a 500-m spatial resolution, a high signal-to-noise ratio and a constant viewing angle, providing imagery suitable for monitoring a large-scale floating algae event and its temporal evolution. Semi-monthly aggregated images were generated to determine fractional coverage area per pixel or density of the floating algae from January to June, 2015. The results are consistent with previous field-survey-based studies, but also reveal a number of new findings. Unexpectedly, S. horneri patches were detected as early as January over a broad area of the ECS continental shelf. The floating algae were detected not only near the outer continental shelf area along the Kuroshio front and Eastern Kuroshio Branch current as previously reported in literature but also along the western inner continental shelf. The floating seaweed patches along the eastern outer shelf proliferated during the second half of March, then moved north, entering the Korea-Tsushima Straits in the west of Kyushu to the north. The algae patches in the western shelf moved north in April and May and separated, one entering the Jeju Strait and the Korea-Tsushima Straits, and the other entering the SYS. Overall, S. horneri density peaked in late April, then decreased in May and June before disappearing from the ECS in July.

Abstract 17083: SARS-CoV-2 Dramatically Decreases Healthcare Access for Patients With Cardiovascular Disease

Background: In the setting of SARS-CoV-2 the public has sought to avoid any unnecessary contact, leaving their homes only when absolutely necessary. Hypothesis: We hypothesized that patients largely stopped seeking care for their acute CV conditions as they sheltered in place in the setting of Covid-19. Methods: We assessed changes in access to CV medical care at multiple levels, including Emergency Medical Services (EMS) call volumes in local Durham and Orange County (population 469,000), as well as for CV clinic appointments, inpatient CV census, ST elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) activations and Emergency Room (ER) visits for a CV complaint at Duke University Hospital, which provides care for a catchment area of about 3.9 million residents, between the first and second half of March 2020. Results: Interactions for CV conditions dropped significantly at almost every level of entry into the healthcare system between the first and second half of March 2020 (Table, Figure). Conclusions: During the current pandemic, CV patients appear to have a significantly higher threshold to seek medical care. The older population of patients with CV disease may be particularly predisposed to remain in isolation due to the higher risk. Patients not receiving medical care may be continuing to decompensate. They may be more likely to die at home, or when they do present for care it may be at a later stage, leading to increased morbidity and mortality. Understanding and addressing the profound change in acute CV care may be almost as important as controlling the virus and its direct consequences, especially as the healthcare systems begin to evaluate how to best re-engage with their patients.

Some Aspects of State-Building Processes in Carpathian Ukraine on the Eve of the Second World War

Autonomous Subcarpathian Rus’, and subsequently independent Carpathian Ukraine, existed for an extremely short period of time: from October 1938 to the second half of March, 1939. Despite this fact, there was such a rapid development of political events in the country that the attention of the whole world was drawn to Carpathian Ukraine. This also applies to the researchers who, at the end of the 1930s, began to study the history of Carpathian Ukraine. The declaration of independence on March 14, 1939 was explained by the desire of the Ukrainian population of the region for freedom. However, the disintegration of Czechoslovakia and the declaration of independence by Slovakia were also of great importance for this act. Despite some spontaneity and haste, this historical event in the life of not only Transcarpathian Ukrainians, but of the entire Ukrainian people was of great historical importance. After January 21, 1919, it was the second attempt to declare to the whole world that Ukrainian nation is alive and ready for state life. Although this act of declaration of independence, ratified on March 15, 1939 at the Soim of Carpathian Ukraine, was more symbolic than real politics, it played a large role in forming the self-consciousness of the entire Ukrainian nation. It was during the period of Carpathian Ukraine that a kind of transition from consciousness of Transcarpathian Ruthenians to Transcarpathian Ukrainians ended. In the late 1930s, Carpathian Ukraine was the only state where a small branch of the Ukrainian people proclaimed their independence and declared their desire to live a state life. The Ukrainians who were part of the USSR, as well as the Ukrainians under the control of Poland and Romania didn’t have such opportunity. However, they treated Carpathian Ukraine as an area where an attempt was made to restore Ukrainian statehood. On this basis, it is necessary to consider the formation of the Carpatho-Ukrainian state as the second stage – after the liberation contest of 1918–20’s – in the struggle for the creation of Ukrainian state formation on a separate Ukrainian territory

A Flexible Lockdown by Integrating Public Health and Economic Reactivation to Response the Crisis of COVID-19: Responses to Comments by Alvaro J Idrovo on "An Examination on the Transmission of COVID-19 and the Effect of Response Strategies: A Comparative Analysis".

We greatly appreciate Idrovo’s comments on our research and wish to specifically respond to his comments. Idrovo indicates that rapid increases in the number of confirmed cases in the past few weeks were observed in Latin America, where some countries had implemented stringent lockdowns for more than three months since the second half of March 2020. In his comments, Idrovo expresses his suspicion on the reality of lockdowns implemented in Latin America and worries about the negative impacts of lockdowns on economies. We thank the Editor for providing us with the opportunity to respond to Idrovo’s comments and explain parts of our study.

Phylogeography of 27,000 SARS-CoV-2 Genomes: Europe as the Major Source of the COVID-19 Pandemic.

The novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 emerged from a zoonotic transmission in China towards the end of 2019, rapidly leading to a global pandemic on a scale not seen for a century. In order to cast fresh light on the spread of the virus and on the effectiveness of the containment measures adopted globally, we used 26,869 SARS-CoV-2 genomes to build a phylogeny with 20,247 mutation events and adopted a phylogeographic approach. We confirmed that the phylogeny pinpoints China as the origin of the pandemic with major founders worldwide, mainly during January 2020. However, a single specific East Asian founder underwent massive radiation in Europe and became the main actor of the subsequent spread worldwide during March 2020. This lineage accounts for the great majority of cases detected globally and even spread back to the source in East Asia. Despite an East Asian source, therefore, the global pandemic was mainly fueled by its expansion across and out of Europe. It seems likely that travel bans established throughout the world in the second half of March helped to decrease the number of intercontinental exchanges, particularly from mainland China, but were less effective between Europe and North America where exchanges in both directions are visible up to April, long after bans were imposed.

The Paradigm Shift of Ophthalmology in the COVID-19 Era.

ObjectiveTo describe how a fixed regimen of intravitreal injections (IVI) was helpful to continue activity during the COVID-19 outbreak and lockdown and to address basic conditions to resume activity.MethodsA fixed regimen of IVI was conceived to significantly reduce the number of visits while keeping a number of injections related to the best outcomes. We retrospectively collected data of surgeries performed in 2019 and in the first seven months of 2020 and from OCTs in the first semester of 2020.ResultsIVI per month, from January to July 2020, were 304, 291, 256, 204, 276, 297 and 322, respectively. Phacoemulsification surgeries in the same period were 397, 408, 171, 0, 304, 391 and 389. Posterior vitrectomies were 23, 21, 17, 10, 21, 28 and 25. Laser sessions were 44, 26, 33, 17, 23 and 33, respectively. OCTs dropped from a mean of 25.7 per day in the first half of March 2020 to 5.8 per day in the second half of March. A mean of 6.5 OCTs per day was made in April, rising to 19.1 in May and 39.5 in June.ConclusionIt was possible to keep the ophthalmological activity during the pandemic outbreak due to the existence of a pre-scheduled fixed regimen for IVI and to the availability of personal protective equipment. The air-borne nature of the peril we are facing addresses the need to evaluate the physical conditions of health facilities, including ventilation, size of waiting and consult rooms and the need to avoid elevators.

Mobility and sales activity during the Corona crisis: daily indicators for Switzerland

This paper documents daily compound indicators on physical mobility and sales activity in Switzerland during the Corona crisis. We report several insights from these indicators: The Swiss population substantially reduced its activities already before the shops closed and before the authorities introduced containment policies in mid-March 2020. Activity started to gradually recover from the beginning of April onwards, again substantially before the first phase of the shutdown easing started at the end of April. Low physical mobility during the second half of March and during April likely contributed to the quick fall in new COVID-19 infections since mid-March. The sharp drop in economic activity in consumer-related services during March and April and the gradual recovery in these sectors since May correlate strongly with the reduction and subsequent gradual resurgence of mobility. In addition, while activity within Switzerland was back to normal levels by late June, activity of Swiss residents outside of Switzerland was still below normal.

Assessing Layoffs in Four Midwestern States during the Pandemic Recession

We use WARN data to assess layoffs in four Midwestern states during the current pandemic-induced recession—Kentucky, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia. The data come from the advance layoff notices filed under the Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification (WARN) Act. We find that the number of workers affected by layoff announcements rose sharply in the second half of March and April, and unexpected changes in economic conditions meant that workers received little advance notice before layoff. Layoff announcements have affected workers across these four states, and workers in mining and leisure and hospitality have been affected the most. Most recently, the number of workers affected by WARN notices has almost returned to prerecession levels.

Mortality in COVID-19 is not merely a question of resource availability

Mortality in COVID-19 is not merely a question of resource availability

How Does Household Spending Respond to an Epidemic? Consumption during the 2020 COVID-19 Pandemic

Utilizing transaction-level financial data, we explore how household consumption responded to the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. As case numbers grew and cities and states enacted shelter-in-place orders, Americans began to radically alter their typical spending across a number of major categories. In the first half of March 2020, individuals increased total spending by over 40% across a wide range of categories. This was followed by a decrease in overall spending of 25%–30% during the second half of March coinciding with the disease spreading, with only food delivery and grocery spending as major exceptions to the decline. Spending responded most strongly in states with active shelter-in-place orders, though individuals in all states had sizable responses. We find few differences across individuals with differing political beliefs, but households with children or low levels of liquidity saw the largest declines in spending during the latter part of March.

Labor demand in the time of COVID-19: Evidence from vacancy postings and UI claims

We use job vacancy data collected in real time by Burning Glass Technologies, as well as unemployment insurance (UI) initial claims and the more traditional Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) employment data to study the impact of COVID-19 on the labor market. Our job vacancy data allow us to track the economy at disaggregated geography and by detailed occupation and industry. We find that job vacancies collapsed in the second half of March. By late April, they had fallen by over 40%. To a first approximation, this collapse was broad based, hitting all U.S. states, regardless of the timing of stay-at-home policies. UI claims and BLS employment data also largely match these patterns. Nearly all industries and occupations saw contraction in postings and spikes in UI claims, with little difference depending on whether they are deemed essential and whether they have work-from-home capability. Essential retail, the “front line” job most in-demand during the current crisis, took a much smaller hit, while leisure and hospitality services and non-essential retail saw the biggest collapses. This set of facts suggests the economic collapse was not caused solely by the stay-at-home orders, and is therefore unlikely to be undone simply by lifting them.

A survey on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on motility and functional investigations in Europe and considerations for recommencing activities in the early recovery phase.

BackgroundThe COVID‐19 pandemic, declared by WHO on March 13, 2020, had a major global impact on the healthcare system and services. In the acute phase, the presence of the SARS‐CoV‐2 virus in the aerodigestive tract limited activities in the gastroenterology clinic and procedures to emergencies only. Motility and function testing was interrupted and as we enter the recovery phase, restarting these procedures requires a safety‐focused approach with adequate infection prevention for patients and healthcare professionals.MethodsWe summarized knowledge on the presence of the SARS‐CoV‐2 virus in the aerodigestive tract and the risk of spread with motility and functional testing. We surveyed 39 European centers documenting how the pandemic affected activities and which measures they are considering for restarting these measurements. We propose recommendations based on current knowledge as applied in our center.ResultsPositioning of catheters for gastrointestinal motility tests carries a concern for aerosol‐borne infection of healthcare workers. The risk is low with breath tests. The surveyed centers stopped almost all motility and function tests from the second half of March. The speed of restarting and the safety measures taken varied highly.Conclusions and InferencesBased on these findings, we provided recommendations and practical relevant information for motility and function test procedures in the COVID‐19 pandemic era, to guarantee a high‐quality patient care with adequate infection prevention.

Early Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Housing Market in the United States

I use daily data from fifty major cities to investigate the early effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on housing market in the United States. I find that starting from the second half of March, 2020, new home listings and pending home sales started to decrease. By mid-April, certain markets experienced more than 60% drop in new home listings and pending home sales relative to the same time period in the previous year. The collapse of the housing market is broad based, hitting all major cities, regardless of the intensity of virus spread or timing of the introduction of state level policies to combat the pandemic. The only exception is the closure of non-essential businesses at certain states, which is associated with up to a 9 percentage point decrease in new home listings.

Emissions and atmospheric concentrations of α-pinene at an urban site of India: Role of changes in meteorology

The measurements of a monoterpene (α-pinene) were performed by the PTR-TOF-MS instrument at an urban site of India from mid-January to March 2014. The daytime concentration increased from 0.15 ppb in the second-half of January to 0.40 ppb in the second-half of March. Both the nighttime and daytime ratios of α-pinene/benzene in the second-half of March were 2–3 times higher their respective values from mid-January to first-half of February. The ratios of α-pinene/benzene increased from ∼0.27 ppb ppb−1 at lower temperatures to ∼0.51 ppb ppb−1 at higher temperatures indicating the increase of biogenic emissions in March. The concentration of α-pinene exhibited exponential decline with wind speed, but the rate of decrease in February was about twice that for March. The nighttime ratios of α-pinene/isoprene were greater than those measured in the daytime, suggesting temperature-dependent biogenic emissions of α-pinene. From mid-January to March, the increase of ∼53% in the biogenic contributions of α-pinene were associated with the change in meteorological conditions. Our analysis suggests that the combined effect of the northwest wind flow and higher air temperatures in March favored the emissions of BVOCs from local vegetation. The exceptionally high concentrations of α-pinene up to 6 ppb were measured during the Holi bonfire festival. This is the first study reporting the change in α-pinene during winter-summer transition over India. In the urban regions of developing countries, high emissions of BVOCs from vegetation and of NOx from anthropogenic sources can act as a source of ozone.

COVID-19 Pandemic: What can Nepal do to Curb the Potential Public Health Disaster?

COVID-19 caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has become the pandemic. Since its first report in late December from Wuhan, China, it has spread in 211 countries and has infected more than a million population claiming more than 81,000 lives until 7th April 2020. Although heterogeneous between countries, the recent trend shows that almost 10% of the infected persons are at the risk of death. The case-fatality has been reported to be at 2.3% in China, 7.2% in Italy, 1.73% in South Korea. One of the dreadful characteristics of the COVID-19 is that it is highly efficient at transmission from human to human. SARS-CoV-2 transmits from one human to another through respiratory droplets and close physical contact. Droplet transmission may also occur through fomites in the immediate environment around the infected person. Although there have been multiple studies and trials, no effective vaccines or anti-viral treatments have been effective to prevent or treat SARS-CoV-2 infection and can take another 12-18 months for the evidence to be generated. In this context, the only remained options would be to explore the epidemiological trend and learn from countries who have controlled the infection successfully. The early detection of cases and community containment have been some of the successful strategies. South Korea was able to lower the COVID-19 cases by an extensive and concerted community testing. The traditional strategies of isolation, quarantine, social distancing and community containment helped China to hold its level of infection after the second half of March 2020. With the increasing number of cases, Italy, the United State and the United Kingdom have increased their testing facilities. Germany, for instance, started mass testing and community surveillance quite early on (proactive community testing) reflected on its low fatality rate.&#x0D; In Nepal by 5 April 2020, only 1,521 tests have been performed only among the suspected cases (a reactive testing method) who attend the hospital and so far 9 has been confirmed cases. Though the case was identified in January, the country-wide lockdown came into effect only on 24 March 2020. Based on the report provided by the Ministry of Health and Population, Nepal is trying its best to increase the number of isolation and quarantine facilities along with the provision of essential PPE. Nepal is at stage II (evidence of local transmission as opposed to imported cases only) of a pandemic but it is difficult to say how the disease is circulating in our population due to poor testing coverage and no proactive community testing. Current public health measures that are cost-effective, although not ideal would be to stringently follow social distancing. Social distance alone would be futile unless, other measures are in place that includes proactive community testing, providing essential medical equipment such as personal protective equipment (PPE), isolation and quarantine spaces, medical logistics such as infection control gears, and ICU facilities with adequate ventilators. While social distancing is the best measure, for now, community outreach for proactive testing with mobilization of community health workers and the use of technologies to inform the preventive measures and to dispel the fears, and rumors can be promising. Including the general public, health workers and policymakers require a strong collaborative platform to work together to consolidate the measures ahead to prevent the COVID-19 disaster in Nepal.