Second Demographic Transition Research Articles

A Quarter Century of Change in Family and Gender-Role Attitudes in Hungary

Our study examines how attitudes towards family and gender roles have changed since the ultimate collapse of communism in Hungary. With respect to evaluating the effects of the regime change, it is important to note that Hungary is unique in having pre-transition measures on attitudes from the International Social Survey Program. In analyzing the nature of value shifts, an arithmetic method that decomposes the changes into population turnover and individual (period) components is used. According to the results, period effects fluctuated over the quarter of century, while the population turnover effects point continuously and clearly towards liberalization of family and gender-role attitudes. Since the period effects were usually stronger, they shaped the fluctuating nature of overall change. Namely, there is a clear trend towards re-traditionalization immediately following the regime change and liberalization thereafter, although there are also signs of continued support for traditional values. The series of repeated modules of the ISSP allowed us to examine a key premise of the Second Demographic Transition (SDT) theory in the case of Hungary. We concluded that the detected direction of the attitude change does not support the examined premise of the SDT.
 * This article belongs to a special issue on “Demographic Developments in Eastern and Western Europe Before and After the Transformation of Socialist Countries”.

Implications of the Theory of Basic Human Values for the Second Demographic Transition: Interdependence and Individualism in the Era of Self-Fulfillment

I examine the implications of a modern psychological theory of values for the Second Demographic Transition (SDT). The SDT derives its values theory and measurement from Maslow, who noted that resource-rich environments cause value shifts towards personal-focused growth values. However, Maslow has been replaced by the theory of basic human values (TBHV) which distinguishes person and social-focused growth values. This distinction has two important implications for the SDT. First, some individualistic and self-expressive values identified by the SDT are not growth but basic need motivated and therefore functions of resource-poor environments. Second, the TBHV values on interdependence and independence are strongly influenced by gender and reflect preferences for family and care or career. Therefore, these values can be used to address critiques of the SDT based on the stalled gender revolution. I show that distinguishing values as described in the TBHV can be useful for the SDT. I find that benevolence (interdependence) is positively and openness to change (autonomy/stimulation) is negatively related to marriage in the Netherlands using longitudinal panel data and discrete event history models.

The rise of the childless single in South Korea

AbstractWe review the literature to show why South Korea is witnessing a dramatic rise in young adults who opt into childless singlehood. We argue that social change occurred over a compressed amount of time in South Korea. Confucian familism and ideational factors specific to the Second Demographic Transition (SDT) coexist and collide. The demands of Confucian familism also tend to be incompatible with the socioeconomic realities facing young adults. Influenced by the ideational factors characterizing the SDT, young adults may feel that it is acceptable to forego marriage. However, due to the strong influence of Confucianism on the institution of marriage, they may perceive married life to be largely inflexible. Thus, when confronted with incompatibilities between married life and other life domains, growing shares of Korean young adults may avoid married life and opt for childless singlehood.

Parental status influences human-to-pet caregiving behaviors, attachment, and attitudes in a Finnish sample

Abstract A growing body of literature suggests people are choosing to forego parenthood, bringing companion animals into the home as a focus for people’s attachment and caretaking behavior instead. This emergent “pet parenting” can be defined as the parent-like investment in companion animals and has been linked to countries that are experiencing or have experienced the Second Demographic Transition (SDT) marked by subreplacement fertility, changing marriage norms, increased educational attainment, and a flexible life orientation no longer focused solely on reproduction. In this research, we sought to determine if Finland, a country where the SDT has already been evidenced, is also experiencing an emergence of pet parenting and whether there is a difference between parents’, nonparents’, and future parents’ attachment and caregiving behaviors toward companion animals in the home. A total of 857 participants completed an online survey delivered in Finnish and English which included demographic questions, the Lexington Attachment to Pets Scale (LAPS), and a series of questions designed to probe topics regarding the training of companion animals, generalized caretaking, and the ascription of personhood or autonomy to companion animals under the respondent’s care. Future parents reported more agreement across all scales of the LAPS, followed by nonparents than parents. Future parents also reported more frequency of behaviors associated with Affective Responsiveness , while nonparents reported more frequency of behaviors associated with Training and Play and General Care . From our results, we argue that Finland does seem to be experiencing the emergence of pet parenting, likely in response to the SDT, and this is demonstrated by marked differences in attachment and caregiving behaviors directed at companion animals in the home.

Consensual conjugal unions among the higher educated women: understanding the heterogeneity of the Brazilian context

Consensual unions have increased greatly in Brazil over the last few decades. Initially, restricted to less-educated groups, they have now been observed in all educational groups, leading some to suggest a diffusion of the Second Demographic Transition (SDT) in the country. In this paper, we examine the characteristics of women choosing consensual unions in Brazil between 1980 and 2010, with a focus on differentials by education. The results show that higher educated women, when compared to the least educated group, prefer marriage over consensual union in both 1980 and 2010. In addition, we show a growing difference between educational groups over time for choosing informal unions, as the probabilities for higher educated women to choose this union type grew less than for the lower educated. For the women with high levels of education in 2010, the likelihood of being in a consensual union is greater among those from lower social classes, and among blacks, browns, and Catholics. These results suggest the replication of intergenerational behaviour as the most likely explanation for the increase in consensual unions among the most educated.

Gendering the second demographic transition: gender asymmetry, gendered tension, and cohabitation in contemporary urban China

The Second Demographic Transition (SDT) framework highlights individuals’ ideational shift toward greater individualism in explaining the rise of non-marriage unions. Contemporary China has seen a substantial increase in premarital cohabitation. Drawing on 65 in-depth interviews with highly educated young urban Chinese women and men, this article examines the gendered ways in which young Chinese adults perceive and make decisions about premarital cohabitation, as they envision their ideal lives and what autonomy and self-realization mean to them. I demonstrate that while male respondents predominantly view cohabitation positively as a risk-reduction strategy for avoiding incompatible marriages, female respondents still consider cohabitation to be a risk-amplification arrangement in practice that increases the possibility of uncertain marriage prospect, unsafe sex, and reputational damages. Young women, but not men, often have to strategize—through carefully managing information disclosure—about persistent parental expectations that discourage women’s premarital cohabitation. As a result, while male respondents regard marriage to be neither the necessary precondition nor the end goal of cohabitation, female respondents, who otherwise emphasize autonomy and individualistic fulfillment, continue to desire a close linkage between cohabitation and marriage. Leveraging the unique strength of qualitative data in demographic research, this article articulates the gender asymmetry in how women and men perceive cohabitation’s risks, benefits, and link to marriage. I elucidate the gendered tension between privately-held ideals of individualism vis-à-vis enduring social norms of female marriageability, as women and men differentially navigate parental expectations surrounding cohabitation. In so doing, this article makes a theoretical contribution by bringing a careful treatment of gender into the SDT framework.

Demographic and social anxieties: the second demographic transition in Asia

Asia is now, predominantly, a continent of ‘low’ fertility—one of the features of the Second Demographic Transition. Across the continent, this feature of our population has sprouted concern and anxiety, primarily expressed in macroeconomic terms. Low fertility is directly linked to the twin challenges of population aging and stagnation/decline. We know, however, that maximizing human capital and institutional reform is a much more effective way of responding to these two ‘grand challenges’ in the short- and medium-term. Why, then, is there such a panic about the lack of babies? In this commentary, I argue that much of the concern is grounded in a ‘fear’ of some of the features of the Second Demographic Transition (SDT)—or, at least, a caricatured version of it—taking root in Asian societies. But how concerned should they be? The papers in this special issue clearly demonstrate that the pathway towards ‘full SDT’ has developed in a very uneven way, perhaps so much so that some may argue the SDT is not a viable tool for understanding family change in (much of) Asia. However, this caricature of what the SDT ‘is’ can be unhelpful. There is no doubt that ideals and attitudes are changing (even if many others are not). Therefore, if we rather consider the SDT as a “general narrative that leaves room for many sub-narratives”, the evidence from Asia clearly demonstrates that there are many sub-narratives operating within a general transition towards some of the key societal and familial features of the SDT.

The second demographic transition in Japan: a review of the evidence

Despite a half century of below-replacement fertility, Japan is typically not included in discussions and evaluations of the second demographic transition (SDT), a widely referenced framework for understanding family changes and attitudinal shifts associated with very low fertility. I address this limitation by drawing upon a range of published research and data sources to provide an empirical basis for thinking about how the Japanese experience does or does not conform to the general patterns of behavioral and attitudinal change associated with the SDT in the West. From this evidence, it seems clear that the prototypical pattern of family change in Northern and Western Europe has only partially emerged in Japan. The same is true of attitudes, particularly those related to gender. Consistent with depictions of the SDT in Europe, Japan has experienced substantial delays in marriage and childbearing along with notable increases in non-marital cohabitation and divorce. However, non-marital childbearing has remained at negligibly low levels and cohabiting unions have not emerged as an alternative to marriage. Attitudinal data show that endorsement of conventional family patterns and gender roles has declined, but remains at higher levels than in most SDT countries. Taken as a whole, these data describe a distinctive path to very low fertility in which universal forces of social and family change interact with strong normative expectations of two-parent families characterized by a clear gender division of labor.

Is there a Chinese pattern of the second demographic transition?

The Second Demographic Transition (SDT) is a useful theoretical framework for explaining the recent trend in many countries of very low fertility combined with alternative union and family types. Although past studies have observed the SDT in many Western societies, whether it is applicable to East Asia remains unclear. Capitalizing on data from the Chinese Census and China Family Panel Studies, we provide estimates of key behavioral and ideational indicators of the SDT. We find that union formation in China has trended increasingly toward patterns commonly observed in the West, including delayed age of marriage and the common practice of premarital cohabitation. While having a lowest-low fertility rate, China has not experienced rising nonmarital childbirths, a key component of the SDT. However, we observe growing tolerance toward nonmarital childbearing and childlessness. Marriages remain relatively stable in China, especially among couples with children. Taken together, our analysis suggests that typically coincident changes in patterns of family behavior associated with the SDT are not occurring simultaneously in China. Moreover, ideational changes are preceding behavioral changes, particularly in attitudes toward nonmarital childbearing and childlessness. Our research suggests a different pattern of the SDT in China, which has been heavily influenced by Confucian culture.

A second demographic transition in Indonesia?

As a predominantly Muslim and ethnically diverse new democracy in Asia, Indonesia is a timely case to study how the contending forces of development and social change are reflected in changing norms and practices around family formation. This paper examines the extent to which the second demographic transition (SDT) theory can provide a primary framework to understand contemporary patterns of fertility, marriage and family change in Indonesia. Against the backdrop of socio-political change following Reformasi in 1998, we found emerging demographic features typically associated with societies in later stages of fertility transition. These include fertility below replacement in some regions; increasing age at first marriage, non-marriage, and divorce rates; and growing diversity in household/family forms. As the vast regions of Indonesia is economically, culturally, and demographically heterogeneous, these key features of SDT are not likely to emerge and unfold in a uniform manner. Further, these demographic shifts are taking place amidst multiple tensions and contradictions in the nature and direction of ideational change pertaining to marriage and the family. We argue that the prevailing ideational change driving the shifts in marriage, fertility, and the family within Indonesia is neither unilinear nor singular in nature. Emerging ideational change embodying individualism, secularism, and post-materialism—originally proposed in SDT theory to be the primary drivers of fertility decline in post-industrial Western Europe—can overlap with popular values promoting de-secularization and the strengthening of familial institutions. As a demographic framework, the SDT theory is an important and useful starting point. But it needs to be reevaluated by considering the complex socio-political and increasingly precarious economic terrains behind fertility transition, as well as marriage and family change in post-Reformasi Indonesia.

Theories of Postindustrial Fertility Decline: An Empirical Examination

AbstractFamily formation patterns in the postindustrial world have changed markedly in the past several decades. Fertility rates have declined, cohabitation rates have increased, age at marriage has gone up, and nonmarital childbearing has become more common in most postindustrial settings. A dominant theoretical explanation for these changes is second demographic transition (SDT) theory, which posits widespread value change towards individualism and postmaterialist concerns. In contrast, gender equity theory emphasizes structural changes, including women's increased participation in the public sphere and the resulting incompatibility of women's domestic and public roles given the slower adaptation on the part of families and institutions to adapt to women's new roles. We test the predictions of these two theoretical frameworks by analyzing fertility decline in 27 European societies. We find evolving gender egalitarianism, measured by the prevalence of gender‐egalitarian attitudes, to have greater explanatory power than SDT‐related ideational changes. The gender equity framework is particularly relevant in explaining the recent fertility trajectories of Central, Eastern, and Southern European countries.

Impact of Joint Physical Custody and Best Interest of the Child: Reflections from a Critical Review of Empirical Studies

ABSTRACT The main goal of this study is to perform a critical literature review of empirical research that measures the effects of joint physical custody (JPC) on children’s and parents’ wellbeing from a sociological perspective. Its focus is Spain in the scope of the Second Demographic Transition (SDT). The studies reviewed show no consensus on terminology that best expresses the condition of JPC, definition of the concept of JPC, or what it is meant by best interest of the child (BIC). A systematic search was performed to locate publications on Spain from 2015–2020. The review shows that the vast majority of JPC resolutions are granted to a specific family profile: highly educated parents who have experienced a low level of family conflict. The review of theoretical antecedents raises the following unanswered questions: Is SDT culture determining the progress of the legal system? Does existing law benefit a specific segment of the parent population? Is a correspondence occurring between family change, jurisprudence, and family and economic policies that benefits children and parents? This study highlights the need for consensus in defining the concepts of JPC and BIC, as well as the measures and methodology to be applied to analyze them.

Disentangling the Roles of Modernization and Secularization on Fertility: The Case of Turkey

Second demographic transition (SDT) theory argues very low fertility results from the simultaneous processes of modernization and secularization. However, this theory has primarily been examined in the Christian countries of Northern and Western Europe. The assumption that modernization and secularization are co-occurring processes may not apply in other non-European, non-Christian contexts. Notably absent are studies of Muslim-majority nations, where modernization has occurred separate from secularization because the primary interpretation of Islam views the pursuit of secular knowledge as important as the pursuit of religious knowledge. Therefore, there is a critical need to examine the applicability of SDT theory to fertility in a Muslim-majority country. Using data from the 2008 and 2013 Demographic and Health Surveys of Turkey (sample size 13,575), and a series of Poisson regression models, we examine the independent and joint effects of modernization and secularization on married women’s parity. Overall, we find that modernization and secularization are independently associated with married women’s parity. We conclude that the specification of the SDT theory that modernization co-occurs with secularization to limit fertility does not follow—and therefore does not—explain low fertility in the Muslim-majority country of Turkey.

Attitudinal and behavioural indices of the second demographic transition: Evidence from the last three decades in Europe

The second demographic transition (SDT), which links ideational changes with demographic developments, is one of the most prominent and debated theoretical frameworks in family demography. Yet, its operationalisations as composite sets of measures remain u

CHILDBIRTH POSTPONEMENT AND AGE-RELATED INFERTILITY IN SERBIA

Childbirth postponement has been a widely discussed topic since the 1990s, and was pushed to the top of the demographic agenda with the emergence of the Second Demographic Transition (SDT) paradigm. Mechanisms of childbirth postponement mostly explained by economists or sociologists were understood as rational-based decisions of individuals (or couples) trying to cope with the requirements of modern society. These mechanisms explained by income and consumption rationale (Becker, Modigliani), or by liberal and postmodern values (Van de Kaa, Lestheage), barely mention the physiological limitations of the individual choice. These limitations given by the human species reproductive span, with no exception, affect everyone trying to make an optimal reproductive choice. There are two main effects of fertility postponement on births and fertility rates. The first effect arises when couples postpone childbearing to a later age during a certain period and fewer births take place than in the absence of such postponement – the ‘tempo effect’. The second is a negative effect of fertility postponement on completed fertility and increased childlessness attributable to the age-related increase in infertility. This second negative effect in particular is our field of interest. The decline in cohort fertility due to postponement has been mostly studied using data on age at first birth and subsequent fertility, as well as models of fecundity, pregnancy loss and time to conception by age, which we will try to apply to the period data. Using period data, we will try to quantify the potential number of births that would occur in the absence of childbirth postponement in Serbia during the past two decades.

Attitudes towards Parental Employment across Europe, in Australia and in Japan

Based on the Generations and Gender Survey this paper studies attitudes towards parentalemployment in 14 European countries—among them ten located in central and easternEurope, Australia and Japan. In a multivariate framework we examine how the acceptanceof the employment of mothers of pre-school children differs. Our aim is to find out howattitudes vary across countries and sex. Since the role of fathers in the process ofsocialisation of their children has been underestimated and underinvestigated for a longtime, we take the challenge of studying attitude towards fathers’ concentration on work.The country-specific ranking in terms of traditional attitudes towards employment ofmothers with pre-school children is in tune with the expectations derived from the SecondDemographic Transition (SDT) theory, with the exception of Romania. Australia holds amedium position, Japan an ambivalent one. We find a large diversity in the level oftraditionalism among the central and eastern European countries. Variation in genderdifferences is substantial; differences are largest where SDT is at an advanced level.Regarding fathers’ concentration on work, the majority presumes negative consequencesfor children, but the answering pattern shows no clear relation with advancement in theSDT.

The nexus between education and fertility in six European countries

Given the many linkages between education and family behaviour, the expansion of higher education especially among women in recent decades may have important consequences for fertility in Europe. This is a crucial factor in both the New Home Economics (NHE) theory and the Second Demographic Transition (SDT) that predict a negative association between fertility and education. However, more recently, the Gender Revolution (GR) approach has emphasised the role of gender egalitarianism both in society and within households as a boost for fertility. By adopting a comparative perspective on six European countries, this paper reports our research on the effect of education on the fertility choices in light of the foregoing three different theoretical explanations. Using data from the second wave of Generation and Gender surveys (GGS) for Bulgaria, Czech Republic, France, Germany, and Poland, and the ISTAT survey “Famiglie e Soggetti Sociali” for Italy, we estimated the propensity to have the first and the second child birth on women born between 1940 and 1979 by means of multiprocess hazard models.For the first childbirth, the influence of education on fertility behaviours not only remains important but also tends to increase among younger cohorts. This result matches the NHE and SDT explanation, suggesting a similar evolution towards an erosion of the family. Conversely, for the second childbirth we found marked differences among countries suggesting an East-West polarisation giving support to the GR approach. However, peculiarities for the Italian case linked to a tempo effect emphasize the need to go beyond the West-East dichotomy.

The Sexual Activity and Sexual Satisfaction of Singles in the Second Demographic Transition

Previous studies depicted a recent drastic reduction in sexual activity in tandem with the rise of the second demographic transition (SDT). However, very little attention has been paid to the questions of whether and how these processes are connected and how they play out in measuring sexual satisfaction among the diverse population of single people. Therefore, the current research focused on exploring this relation among the groups of never-married singles and divorced singles, further divided into men and women (N = 5944) and compared with married people (N = 18,733). Data were drawn from the Panel Analysis of Intimate Relationships and Family Dynamics (Pairfam) study. The results of this study indicated that voluntary singlehood positively correlates with sexual satisfaction among all four groups. Moreover, voluntary singlehood among women of both groups negatively correlates with sex frequency, desired sex frequency, and pornography usage, while among men voluntary singlehood negatively correlates with desired sex frequency. These results indicate that within the second demographic transition, voluntary singles are generally more sexually satisfied, and this is not associated with having more casual sex, but rather with desiring less sex and, among women, with being less sexually active relatively to involuntary single women. Educational programs should be updated and equip children with a social and psychological “toolbox” of how to be satisfied singles, sexually and generally. Learning about sexuality of voluntary and involuntary singles in schools and supporting high-quality solo lifestyles through the health and welfare ministries, exactly as is done with family life, are essential to our society. Fianlly, social workers, psychologists, and sex advisors should be trained to serve the population of singles.

Sincronicidades entre la transición sanitaria y la segunda transición demográfica en Argentina durante la primera década del siglo XXI

Este trabajo analiza los procesos de la transición sanitaria (TS) y de la segunda transición demográfica (STD) en Argentina durante la primera década del milenio actual. A partir de la revisión de literatura especializada y utilizando bases de datos oficiales, se proponen indicadores empíricos para su evaluación y se examinan las articulaciones entre ambos procesos. En total, se seleccionaron y describieron 31 indicadores considerados proxy de estos procesos, para las 23 provincias argentinas y la Ciudad Autónoma de Buenos Aires. Posteriormente se realizó un análisis de clúster jerárquico y aglomerativo, siguiendo el método de Ward. Se identificaron cuatro clústeres de jurisdicciones argentinas, cuya distribución fue valorada espacialmente. Los clústeres presentaron diferentes grados de avance en ambas transiciones. Los hallazgos muestran que en el país existe un gradiente socioeconómico en la conformación de los clústeres, y que la sincronicidad entre la STD y la TS se expresa a escala espacial y social.

The changing pattern of cohabitation: A sequence analysis approach

BACKGROUND During the last decades, nonmarital cohabitation has diffused throughout the industrialised world, although not uniformly. The Second Demographic Transition (SDT) predicts a convergence of cohabitation patterns towards a final stage in which cohabitation and marriage will be almost indistinguishable. OBJECTIVE This paper contributes to the literature on the convergence of cohabitation patterns across countries by testing whether countries are becoming more similar over time, as suggested by the SDT. METHODS We use sequence analysis and cluster analysis techniques to classify different patterns of cohabitation in France, Italy, Norway, Bulgaria, and the United States. Using data mainly stemming from the Gender and Generations Surveys (GGS), we analyse women's patterns of behaviour during the five years following the start of their first cohabitation, over a time span of three decades (1970s-2000s). RESULTS On the basis of sequencing the events of childbirth, marriage, and separation we are able to identify five different clusters corresponding to different ways of going through the cohabitation experience. CONCLUSIONS Our results suggest that there is a general decreasing trend of cohabitation as a premarital experience and an increasing trend of cohabitation as an alternative to marriage or as a free union. However, within this homogeneous trend, persistent peculiarities at the country level suggest that the selected countries are not simply at different stages of the same trajectory. CONTRIBUTION The classification that emerges from the data-driven approach combines several features of already existing typologies of cohabitation experience. Analysis of the data highlights country peculiarities in the development of the cohabitation experience, rather than the existence of a common path as predicted by the SDT.