Theory Of Second Demographic Transition Research Articles

A second demographic transition in Indonesia?

As a predominantly Muslim and ethnically diverse new democracy in Asia, Indonesia is a timely case to study how the contending forces of development and social change are reflected in changing norms and practices around family formation. This paper examines the extent to which the second demographic transition (SDT) theory can provide a primary framework to understand contemporary patterns of fertility, marriage and family change in Indonesia. Against the backdrop of socio-political change following Reformasi in 1998, we found emerging demographic features typically associated with societies in later stages of fertility transition. These include fertility below replacement in some regions; increasing age at first marriage, non-marriage, and divorce rates; and growing diversity in household/family forms. As the vast regions of Indonesia is economically, culturally, and demographically heterogeneous, these key features of SDT are not likely to emerge and unfold in a uniform manner. Further, these demographic shifts are taking place amidst multiple tensions and contradictions in the nature and direction of ideational change pertaining to marriage and the family. We argue that the prevailing ideational change driving the shifts in marriage, fertility, and the family within Indonesia is neither unilinear nor singular in nature. Emerging ideational change embodying individualism, secularism, and post-materialism—originally proposed in SDT theory to be the primary drivers of fertility decline in post-industrial Western Europe—can overlap with popular values promoting de-secularization and the strengthening of familial institutions. As a demographic framework, the SDT theory is an important and useful starting point. But it needs to be reevaluated by considering the complex socio-political and increasingly precarious economic terrains behind fertility transition, as well as marriage and family change in post-Reformasi Indonesia.

Disentangling the Roles of Modernization and Secularization on Fertility: The Case of Turkey

Second demographic transition (SDT) theory argues very low fertility results from the simultaneous processes of modernization and secularization. However, this theory has primarily been examined in the Christian countries of Northern and Western Europe. The assumption that modernization and secularization are co-occurring processes may not apply in other non-European, non-Christian contexts. Notably absent are studies of Muslim-majority nations, where modernization has occurred separate from secularization because the primary interpretation of Islam views the pursuit of secular knowledge as important as the pursuit of religious knowledge. Therefore, there is a critical need to examine the applicability of SDT theory to fertility in a Muslim-majority country. Using data from the 2008 and 2013 Demographic and Health Surveys of Turkey (sample size 13,575), and a series of Poisson regression models, we examine the independent and joint effects of modernization and secularization on married women’s parity. Overall, we find that modernization and secularization are independently associated with married women’s parity. We conclude that the specification of the SDT theory that modernization co-occurs with secularization to limit fertility does not follow—and therefore does not—explain low fertility in the Muslim-majority country of Turkey.

Gimstamumo, laimės ir lyčių vaidmenų sąsajos

Šio straipsnio tikslas – pristatyti naujas gimstamumo teorines prieigas, aiškinančias vaikų susilaukimo, laimės bei lyčių vaidmenų, lyčių (ne)lygybės ir (ne)teisingumo sąsajas, atskleisti šių teorinių prieigų ryšį, aptarti galimybes jas jungti, išryškinant jų perspektyvumą jau išplėtotų teorijų kontekste. Pastarųjų kelių dešimtmečių išsivysčiusių šalių neigiami gimstamumo pokyčiai, pasižymintys gimstamumo mažėjimu ir žemu lygiu, neužtikrinančiu kartų kaitos, nuo XX a. devinto dešimtmečio aiškinti remiantis antrojo demografinio perėjimo (ADP) teorija. Tačiau kai kuriose šalyse jau matomo gimstamumo atsigavimo ADP teorija paaiškinti negali. Kaip atsakas į išplėtotų gimstamumo teorijų trūkumus ir prieštaringus gimstamumo pokyčius šiuo metu plėtojamos dvi naujos, tarpusavyje susijusios teorinės perspektyvos – laimės ir lyčių vaidmenų sąsajos su gimstamumo pokyčiais. Šiuos tris dėmesnis integruojanti analitinė perspektyva papildo R. Lesthaeghe’o ir D. van de Kaa pasiūlytas ADP idėjas. Joje plėtojama bei naujai pritaikoma ir P. McDonaldo pasiūlyta teorinė schema, apimanti kintamas gimstamumo ir lyčių lygybės, lyčių teisingumo sąsajas. Kintamų lyčių vaidmenų modelių ir laimės bei gimstamumo kitimas priklauso nuo platesnio konteksto – darbo ir šeimos vaidmenų derinimo galimybių, susijusių su socialine ir šeimos politika bei darbo rinkos lankstumu, į individą ir šeimą orientuotų institucijų prisitaikymo prie kintamų lyčių vaidmenų. Dėl institucijų neprisitaikymo lyčių vaidmenų modelių kaita, pereinant nuo tradicinio prie egalitarinio lyčių vaidmenų modelio, yra „įstrigusi“ pereinamajame etape, pasireiškiančiame normatyvine sumaištimi, darbo ir šeimos vaidmenų derinimo konfliktu, dėl struktūrinių suvaržymų ribojančiu prokreacinių lūkesčių realizaciją. Pagrindinė dviejų teorijų junginio ir naujas gimstamumo pokyčių aiškinimo galimybes suteikiančios kompleksinės teorinės perspektyvos idėja – žemas gimstamumo ir laimės lygis yra pasikeitusių lyčių vaidmenų preferencijų ir struktūrinių galimybių neatitikimo padarinys, kai institucijos negeba prisitaikyti prie kintamų lyčių vaidmenų.

Is the second demographic transition the relevant concept for European countries?

The theory of second demographic transition is particularly unique in trying to capture both the transformation of reproductive behaviour and a change in the attitudes towards new forms of partnership life and a new reproductive pattern. This study has set as its target to find out to what degree second demographic transition can be used as an explanatory framework of the recent development of European reproductive behaviour and, in particular, what is its relevance when it comes to the post-Communist countries as a region with a specific development that has been an object of many discussions within this issue. Whether not only the transformation of reproductive behaviour, but also changes in the value orientation in post-Communist countries correspond with the assumptions and signs of the second demographic transition.

Religiosity, gender attitudes and women’s labour market participation and fertility decisions in Europe

The Second Demographic Transition (SDT) theory underlines the importance of changing values and attitudes to explain the trend toward low fertility and raising female labour market participation. We contribute to this debate comparing religiosity and gender attitudes over several European countries using three waves of the European Values Study (1990, 1999 and 2008). By dealing with the issues of measurement invariance and endogeneity between values and behaviour, our results support some critiques of the SDT theory. The pace of the process of sociocultural change has not been the same across European countries and the forerunners of the SDT, that is, the most secularized and gender-egalitarian societies, now have the highest female labour market participation rates and the highest fertility. We provide evidence for a ‘macro–micro paradox’ regarding the role of values on family behaviours. Religiosity is positively correlated with fertility and housewifery, while gender attitudes are only correlated with women’s labour market decisions. These correlations are stronger in more traditional countries, even if aggregate fertility is lower. We stress the necessity to integrate cultural and structural explanations, suggesting the lack of family policies and the rigidity of the family formation process as possible mechanisms to unravel this paradox.

A Closer Look at the Second Demographic Transition in the US: Evidence of Bidirectionality from a Cohort Perspective (1982–2006)

Second demographic transition (SDT) theory posits that increased individualism and secularization have contributed to low fertility in Europe, but very little work has directly tested the salience of SDT theory to fertility trends in the U.S. Using longitudinal data from a nationally representative cohort of women who were followed throughout their reproductive years (NLSY79), this study examines the role of several key indicators of the second demographic transition (secularization, egalitarianism, religious affiliation, and female participation in the labor market) on fertility behavior over time (1982-2006). Analyses employ Poisson estimation, logistic regression, and cross-lagged structural equation models to observe unidirectional and bidirectional relationships over the reproductive life course. Findings lend support to the relevance of SDT theory in the U.S. but also provide evidence of "American bipolarity" which distinguishes the U.S. from the European case. Furthermore, analyses document the reciprocal nature of these relationships over time which has implications for how we understand these associations at the individual-level.

Changes of marital behavior and family patterns in post-socialist countries: Delayed, incomplete or specific second demographic transition?

The paper starts by questioning the theory of second demographic transition (SDT) and its universal relevance in the field of marriage behavior and family organization in low fertility context, arguing for more differentiated approaches. With an aim to illustrate the contextual specifics of post-socialist countries in general and of Serbia in particular, the author claims that analyzed changes have not just been delayed or incomplete in comparison to more developed European countries, but shaped by specific modernization processes, which led to rationally developed strategies in overcoming structural risks, although, without ideational changes typical to the theory of SDT. Slow changes in marital behavior and family organization in Serbia are illustrated in recent sociological (empirical) research findings. The perceived changes are linked to specific structural risks (war, slow transformation and enduring economic hardships, weak state and low trust in institutions, etc) and value characteristics (persistence of materialism and traditionalism, but with increasing ambivalence). The connection between structural and ideational changes is considered through social stratification variable by relying on Coale's model on necessary preconditions for behavioral changes as well as on social deprivation concept. Having in mind upper social strata (more educated and better off), the value changes precede the behavioral that are adapted to economic uncertainty, which still force more traditional marital and family patterns. Therefore, there is a rank of different options, from extended family (for a short period at the beginning of marriage or after divorce) to separated leaving (of married partners) in parental households (due to refusing the extended family option thus creating quite specific "living apart together" form), combined with dominant strategy of prolonging the marriage. Hence, for upper social strata, marriage is still a universal but negotiable institution since more alternative options (although attractive and in accordance to changing values) are deemed irrational (have no obvious benefit). As regards the lower social strata (less educated and worse off), marriage is more in accordance with their higher inclination to traditional values, but general value liberalization legitimizes possible failures (divorces, extra marital births), which, even if not desired or economically rational, happen due to lower capacity to command life. For that reason, cohabitations and extra marital births are more common among actors at the lower end of the stratification ladder. The paper concludes that adaptive strategies related to traditional patterns of family organization dominate in Serbia, which might be illustrated by the fact that every third of one parent families lives in extended families. Even with significant structural changes (and economic improvements) in Serbia in the near future it is realistic to expect familism as an influential context, which suggests the spreading of cohabitation primarily as a pre- marital option (but more desired than forced).

The "second demographic transition": a conceptual map for the understanding of late modern demographic developments in fertility and family formation

Der zweite demo graphische Ubergang ': Ein Orientierungskon- zept zum Verstandnis spatmoderner demographischer Entwicklungen von Fer- tilitat und Familienbildung«. This article presents a narrative of the unfolding of the Second Demographic Transition (SDT) since the theory was first formu- lated in 1986. The first part recapitulates the foundations of the theory, and documents the spread of the SDT to the point that it now covers most European populations. Also for Europe, it focuses on the relationship between the SDT and the growing heterogeneity in period fertility levels. It is shown that the cur- rent positive relationship between SDT and TFR levels is not a violation of the SDT theory, but the outcome of a split correlation with different sub- narratives concerning the onset of fertility postponement and the degree of subsequent recuperation in two parts of Europe. The second part of the article addresses the issue of whether the SDT has spread or is currently spreading in industrialized Asian countries. Evidence gathered for Japan, South Korea, Hong Kong, Singapore, and Taiwan is presented. That evidence pertains to both the macro- level (national trends in postponement of marriage and parent- hood, rise of cohabitation) and the micro-level (connections between individual values orientations and postponement of parenthood). Strong similarities are

The Unfolding Story of the Second Demographic Transition

This article presents a narrative of the unfolding of the Second Demographic Transition (SDT) since the theory was first formulated in 1986. The first part recapitulates the foundations of the theory, and documents the spread of the SDT to the point that it now covers most European populations. Also for Europe, it focuses on the relationship between the SDT and the growing heterogeneity in period fertility levels. It is shown that the current positive relationship between SDT and TFR levels is not a violation of the SDT theory, but the outcome of a "split correlation" with different sub-narratives concerning the onset of fertility postponement and the degree of subsequent recuperation in two parts of Europe. The second part of the article addresses the issue of whether the SDT has spread or is currently spreading in industrialized Asian countries. Evidence gathered for Japan, South Korea, Hong Kong, Singapore, and Taiwan is presented. That evidence pertains to both the macro-level (national trends in postponement of marriage and parenthood, rise of cohabitation) and the micro-level (connections between individual values orientations and postponement of parenthood). Strong similarities are found with SDT patterns in Southern Europe, except for the fact that parenthood is still very rare among Asian cohabiting partners.