Seasonal Trend Decomposition Using Loess Research Articles

Integrated STL-DBSCAN algorithm for online hydrological and water quality monitoring data cleaning

Online hydrological and water quality monitoring data has become increasingly crucial for water environment management such as assessment and modeling. However, online monitoring data often contains erroneous or incomplete datasets, consequently affecting its operational use. In the study, we developed an automated data cleaning algorithm grounded in Seasonal-Trend decomposition using Loess (STL) and Density-Based Spatial Clustering of Applications with Noise (DBSCAN). STL identifies and corrects more obvious anomalies in the time series, followed by DBSCAN for further refinement, in which the reverse nearest neighbor method was employed to enhance the clustering accuracy. To improve anomaly detection, a two-level residual judgment threshold was applied. The algorithm has been successfully applied to three reservoirs in Shanghai, China, achieving the precision rate of 0.91 and recall rate of 0.81 for dissolved oxygen and pH. The proposed algorithm can be potentially applied for cleaning of environment monitoring data with high accuracy and stability.

Daily PM2.5 and Seasonal-Trend Decomposition to Identify Extreme Air Pollution Events from 2001 to 2020 for Continental Australia Using a Random Forest Model

Robust high spatiotemporal resolution daily PM2.5 exposure estimates are limited in Australia. Estimates of daily PM2.5 and the PM2.5 component from extreme pollution events (e.g., bushfires and dust storms) are needed for epidemiological studies and health burden assessments attributable to these events. We sought to: (1) estimate daily PM2.5 at a 5 km × 5 km spatial resolution across the Australian continent between 1 January 2001 and 30 June 2020 using a Random Forest (RF) algorithm, and (2) implement a seasonal-trend decomposition using loess (STL) methodology combined with selected statistical flags to identify extreme events and estimate the extreme pollution PM2.5 component. We developed an RF model that achieved an out-of-bag R-squared of 71.5% and a root-mean-square error (RMSE) of 4.5 µg/m3. We predicted daily PM2.5 across Australia, adequately capturing spatial and temporal variations. We showed how the STL method in combination with statistical flags can identify and quantify PM2.5 attributable to extreme pollution events in different locations across the country.

Land Subsidence Predictions Based on a Multi-Component Temporal Convolutional Gated Recurrent Unit Model in Kunming City

Land subsidence (LS) is a geological hazard driven by both natural conditions and human activities. Traditional LS time-series prediction models often struggle to accurately capture nonlinear data characteristics, leading to suboptimal predictions. To address this issue, this paper introduces a multi-component temporal convolutional gate recurrent unit (MC-TCGRU) model, which integrates a fully adaptive noise-ensemble empirical-mode decomposition algorithm with a deep neural network to account for the complexity of time-series data. The model was validated using typical InSAR subsidence data from Kunming, analyzing the impact of each component on the prediction performance. A comparative analysis with the TCGRU model and models based on seasonal-trend decomposition using LOESS (STL) and empirical-mode decomposition (EMD) revealed that the MC-TCGRU model significantly enhanced the prediction accuracy by reducing the complexity of the original data. The model achieved R² values of 0.90, 0.93, 0.51, 0.93, and 0.96 across five points, outperforming the compared models.

Respiratory Diagnoses Year-Round: Unraveling the Multifaceted Pediatric Infection Cycles.

The aim of the study is to analyze the annual cycle of pediatric medically attended respiratory illnesses. Data on 141 million pediatric respiratory visits from the years 2010-2019 were obtained from the Polish National Healthcare Fund. To identify underlying patterns and trends within the aggregated data, techniques like seasonal-trend decomposition using LOESS (STL) and principal component analysis (PCA) were applied. A strongly recurring pattern was observed. Following the annual minimum in late summer, there was a sudden surge in upper respiratory infections in early September. Subsequently, overall visits declined gradually, while the share of lower respiratory infections increased, particularly during the influenza peaks from January to March. Afterwards, visits declined steadily, with an additional peak of tonsillopharyngitis noted in midsummer. Dimensionality reduction of diagnoses implied the existence of two major groups of co-occurring diagnoses, the proportions of which change over the year: one smaller but more severe, peaking during the influenza season, and the second dominating with lower severity. Age differences in diagnoses were observed, with babies showing upper respiratory infections likely diagnosed with the common cold rather than a more specific upper respiratory infection. While enhancing surveillance strategies is indeed a desirable long-term goal, it is worth noting that despite the variability observed in the onset of the influenza season, the infection cycles generally follow a relatively fixed pattern. This consistency provides a foundation for effective planning and underscores the potential for proactive measures to mitigate the impact of seasonal outbreaks.

Interannual variations of terrestrial water storage in the East African Rift region

Abstract. The US–German GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment, 2002–2017) and GRACE-FO (GRACE Follow-On, since 2018) satellite missions observe terrestrial water storage (TWS) variations. Over 20 years of data allow for investigating interannual variations beyond linear trends and seasonal signals. However, the origin of observed TWS changes cannot be determined solely with GRACE and GRACE-FO observations. This study focuses on the northern part of the East African Rift around the lakes of Turkana, Victoria, and Tanganyika. It aims to characterise and analyse the interannual TWS variations compared to meteorological and geodetic observations of the water storage compartments (surface water, soil moisture, and groundwater). We apply the STL (Seasonal-Trend decomposition using LOESS) method to decompose the signal into a seasonal signal, an interannual signal, and residuals. By clustering the interannual TWS dynamics for the African continent, we define the exact outline of the study region. We observe a TWS decrease until 2006, followed by a steady rise until 2016, and then the most significant TWS gain in Africa in 2019 and 2020. Besides meteorological variability, surface water storage variations in the lakes explain large parts of the TWS decrease before 2006. The storage dynamics of Lake Victoria alone contribute up to 50 % of these TWS changes. On the other hand, the significant TWS increase around 2020 can be attributed to nearly equal rises in groundwater and surface water storage, which coincide with a substantial precipitation surplus. Soil moisture explains most of the seasonal variability but does not influence the interannual variations. As Lake Victoria dominates the surface water storage variations in the region, we further investigate the lake and the downstream Nile River. The Nalubaale Dam regulates Lake Victoria's outflow. Water level observations from satellite altimetry reveal the impact of dam operations on downstream discharge and on TWS decreases in the drought years before 2006. On the other hand, we do not find evidence for an impact of the Nalubaale Dam regulations on the strong TWS increase after 2019.

Forecasting oil futures markets using machine learning and seasonal trend decomposition

ABSTRACT Can machine learning improve prediction for seasonal commodity prices? We explore the effectiveness of a combined method that integrates seasonal trend decomposition using LOESS (STL) with machine learning (ML), referred to as STL-ML. We apply Extreme Gradient Boosting and Random Forest to forecast oil futures price dynamics over a sample period from 2004 to 2023. Our STL-ML results indicate no significant improvement for crude oil futures but enhanced accuracy for heating oil futures, highlighting STL’s benefit for datasets with strong seasonality. We demonstrate the potential for machine learning performance enhancement with STL, emphasising the variability of predictive model effectiveness due to data characteristics and providing insights for refining investment strategies based on seasonality and trends.

Short-Term Prediction Method for Gas Concentration in Poultry Houses Under Different Feeding Patterns

Ammonia (NH3) and carbon dioxide (CO2) are the main gases that affect indoor air quality and the health of the chicken flock. Currently, the environmental control strategy for poultry houses mainly relies on real-time temperature, resulting in lag and singleness. Indoor air quality can be improved by predicting the change in CO2 concentration and proposing an optimal control strategy. Combining the advantages of seasonal-trend decomposition using loess (STL), Granger causality (GC), long short-term memory (LSTM), and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), an ensemble method called the STL-GC-LSTM-XGBoost model is proposed. This model can set fast response prediction results at a lower cost and has strong generalization ability. The comparative analysis shows that the proposed STL-GC-LSTM-XGBoost model achieved high prediction accuracy, performance, and confidence in predicting CO2 levels under different environmental regulation modes and data volumes. However, its prediction accuracy for NH3 was slightly lower than that of the STL-GC-LSTM model. This may be due to the limited variability and regularity of the NH3 dataset, which likely increased model complexity and decreased predictive ability with the introduction of XGBoost. Nevertheless, in general, the proposed integrated model still provides a feasible approach for gas concentration prediction and health-related risk control in poultry houses.

Assessing long-term water storage dynamics in Afghanistan: An integrated approach using machine learning, hydrological models, and remote sensing

Assessment of Terrestrial Water Storage (TWS) components is crucial for understanding regional climate and water resources, particularly in arid and semi-arid regions like Afghanistan. Given the scarcity of ground-based data, this study leverages remote sensing datasets to quantify water storage changes. We integrated Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and GRACE Follow-on (GRACE-FO) data with WaterGap, Global Land Water Storage (GWLS), Catchment Land Surface Model (CLSM), and climate variables (precipitation, temperature, potential evapotranspiration) using artificial neural networks (ANN) and random forests (RF). Additionally, Ice, Cloud, and Land Elevation Satellite (ICESat-1,2) data were utilized to estimate glacier mass changes. Seasonal trend decomposition using Loess (STL) was applied to assess TWS changes from 2003 to 2022. Our methodology reveals a high correlation (R = 0.90–0.97) between reconstructed and observed TWS anomalies across Afghanistan's major basins. Glacier mass decreased by −0.59 and −1.17 Gt/year during 2003–2009 and 2018–2022, respectively, while overall TWS declined by −2.46 Gt/year. The HRB experienced the largest TWS loss (−1.47 Gt/year), primarily due to groundwater depletion (−1.18 Gt/year). These findings underscore the importance of our approach for assessing water resources, providing vital insights for sustainable management under a changing climate in a data-scarce country.

Displacement Interval Prediction Method for Arch Dam with Cracks: Integrated STL, MF-DFA and Bootstrap

Displacement prediction models based on measured data have been widely applied in structural health monitoring. However, most models neglect the particularity of displacement monitoring for arch dams with cracks, nor do they thoroughly analyze the non-stationarity and uncertainty of displacement. To address this issue, the influencing factors of displacement were first considered, with crack opening displacement being incorporated into them, leading to the construction of the HSCT model that accounts for the effects of cracks. Feature selection was performed on the factors of the HSCT model utilizing the max-relevance and min-redundancy (mRMR) algorithm, resulting in the screened subset of displacement influence factors. Next, displacement was decomposed into trend, seasonal, and remainder components applying the seasonal-trend decomposition using loess (STL) algorithm. The multifractal characteristics of these displacement components were then analyzed by multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA). Subsequently, displacement components were predicted employing the convolutional neural network-long short-term memory (CNN-LSTM) model. Finally, the impact of uncertainty factors was quantified using prediction intervals based on the bootstrap method. The results indicate that the proposed methods and models are effective, yielding satisfactory prediction accuracy and providing scientific basis and technical support for the health diagnosis of hydraulic structures.

Long-Term Evaluation of Aerosol Optical Properties in the Levantine Region: A Comparative Analysis of AERONET and Aqua/MODIS

The focus on aerosol analysis in the Levantine Region is driven by climate-change impacts, the region’s increasing urban development and industrial activities, and its geographical proximity to major dust-source areas. This study conducts a comparative analysis of aerosol optical depth data from Aqua/MODIS and AERONET during different periods between 2003 and 2023 at four stations: IMS-METU-ERDEMLI (Mersin/Türkiye) (2004–2019), CUT-TEPAK (Limassol/Cyprus) (2010–2023), Cairo_EMA_2 (Cairo/Egypt) (2010–2023), and SEDE_BOKER (Sede Boker/Israel) (2003–2023). The objective is to evaluate the variability and reliability of AOD measurements between satellite and ground-based observations and to determine how well they represent regional climatology. The highest percentage of measurements within the expected error envelope was observed at the IMS-METU-ERDEMLI station, indicating the best agreement between MODIS and AERONET data at this location. The Seasonal-Trend Decomposition using Loess (STL) method revealed consistent spring and summer peaks influenced by dust transport from the Sahara and the Middle East, with lower values in winter. The study also considers the influence of cloud fraction on MODIS measurements and includes aerosol classification. A statistically significant slight positive trend in AOD values was identified at the IMS-METU-ERDEMLI station. Conversely, no significant trends were detected at the other stations. The results of this study agree with those of previous research on the impact of long-range dust transport on regional aerosol loadings, emphasizing the importance of integrating satellite and ground-based observations.

The COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil: space-time approach of cases, deaths, and vaccination coverage (February 2020 – April 2024)

ObjectiveTo assess the evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil and its macro-regions, considering disease incidence and mortality rates, as well as identifying territories with still rising disease indices and evaluating vaccine coverage and population adherence to COVID-19 immunization.MethodsAn ecological study conducted in Brazil with COVID-19 cases and deaths reported between February 2020 and April 2024, obtained through the Coronavirus Panel. Historical series were constructed from incidence and mortality rates to assess the pandemic’s evolution, and temporal trends were estimated using the Seasonal Trend Decomposition using Loess (STL) method. The Spatial Variation in Temporal Trends (SVTT) technique was employed to identify clusters with significant variations in temporal trends. Vaccination was analyzed considering the percentage of vaccinated and unvaccinated population in each municipality of the country.ResultsBrazil recorded a total of 38,795,966 cases and 712,038 deaths from COVID-19 during the study period. Incidence and mortality rates showed three waves of the disease, with a fourth wave of smaller amplitude. Four clusters with significant case growth and two with increased deaths were identified. Vaccine coverage varied among municipalities, with some regions showing low vaccination rates and others with high immunization adherence.ConclusionThe study provided a comprehensive overview of coronavirus behavior in Brazil, and its results highlight the ongoing importance of vaccination and the need to direct efforts and resources to areas of higher risk.

Epidemiological Characteristics of Overseas-Imported Infectious Diseases Identified through Airport Health-Screening Measures: A Case Study on Fuzhou, China.

This study aimed to examine the epidemiological characteristics of imported infections and assess the effectiveness of border health screening in detecting imported diseases. We obtained infection data for 2016 to 2019 from the Fuzhou Changle International Airport Infection Reporting System. The demographic, temporal, and spatial characteristics of travel-related infections were analyzed using r×c contingency tables, the Cochran-Armitage trend test, and seasonal-trend decomposition using LOESS (STL). Detection rates were used as a proxy for the effectiveness of border health-screening measures. Overall, 559 travel-related infections were identified during the study period, with 94.3% being imported infections. Airport health screening demonstrated an overall effectiveness of 23.7% in identifying travel-associated infections. Imported infections were predominantly identified in males, with 55.8% of cases occurring in individuals aged 20-49. The peak periods of infection importation were from January to February and from May to August. The infectious diseases identified were imported from 25 different countries and regions. All dengue fever cases were imported from Southeast Asia. Most notifiable infections (76.0%) were identified through fever screening at the airport. The increasing number of imported infections poses a growing challenge for public health systems. Multifaceted efforts including surveillance, vaccination, international collaboration, and public awareness are required to mitigate the importation and spread of infectious diseases from overseas sources.

The impact of grazing activities and environmental conditions on the stability of alpine grassland ecosystems

Globally, grazing activities have profound impacts on the structure and function of ecosystems. This study, based on a 20-year MODIS time series dataset, employs remote sensing techniques and the Seasonal-Trend decomposition using Loess (STL) algorithm to quantitatively assess the stability of alpine grassland ecosystems from multiple dimensions, and to reveal the characteristics of grazing activities and environmental conditions on ecosystem stability. The results indicate that only 5.77% of the area remains undisturbed, with most areas experiencing varying degrees of disturbance. Further analysis shows that grazing activities in high vegetation coverage areas are the main source of interference. In areas with concentrated interference, elevation and slope have a positive correlation with resistance stability, but a negative correlation with recovery stability. Precipitation and landscape diversity have positive effects on both resistance stability and recovery stability. Vegetation coverage and grazing intensity have a negative correlation with resistance stability, but a positive correlation with recovery stability. This highlights the complex interactions between human activities, environmental factors, and ecosystem stability. The findings emphasize the need for targeted conservation and management strategies to mitigate disturbances to ecosystems affected by human activities and enhance their stability.

Sales forecasting and classification model and pricing research of agricultural perishables based on STL-ARIMA

The prediction of sales volume for agricultural perishable goods is crucial for small-scale merchants to formulate corresponding procurement strategies. Accurate sales volume forecasting helps merchants reduce the risk of excess inventory, establish prudent and appropriate procurement strategies, and provide suggestions for product pricing. To further accurately explore the sales volume patterns of various perishable goods, this study classifies existing data into individual products using the STL (Seasonal-Trend decomposition using Loess) algorithm, revealing the characteristics of each product's sales volume over time. Based on the existing sales volume data, the ARIMA model is used to predict the sales volume of specific categories of goods. A multivariate linear regression model related to pricing, based on existing cost and pricing data, is established to provide merchants with pricing suggestions.

Geographic heterogeneity of activation functions in urban real-time flood forecasting: Based on seasonal trend decomposition using Loess-Temporal Convolutional Network-Gated Recurrent Unit model

Urban real-time flood forecasting is crucial for flood prevention and sustainable development, but it poses challenges due to data inputs and activation functions selection in data-driven models without sufficient focus of geographic heterogeneity. In this study, a novel Seasonal Trend Decomposition using Loess (STL)-Temporal Convolutional Network (TCN)-Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) model is proposed to improve urban real-time flood forecasting accuracy, twenty-one different activation functions are considered for geographic heterogeneity. Experiments are conducted at six urban drainage system locations in Odense, Denmark. The results show that: (1) STL effectively prepares data for forecasting using TCN and GRU models, leading improved performance compared to single models. STL-TCN-GRU deep learning model demonstrates strong applicability in urban forecasting, achieving an overall accuracy of 0.0079, 0.0140, 0.0482 and 0.9581 in Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) and Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (NSE), respectively. (2) Softsign emerges as the best activation function for forecasting in lower drainage system locations, with average accuracy of 0.0094, 0.0018, 0.0049 and 0.9938 in MAE, RMSE, MAPE and NSE, respectively. Furthermore, Softsign proves to be the best activation function for forecasting in middle drainage system locations, with average accuracy of 0.0047, 0.0081, 0.0309 and 0.9547 in MAE, RMSE, MAPE and NSE, respectively. Swish is the best activation function for forecasting in upper drainage system locations, with average accuracy of 0.0052, 0.0080, 0.0627 and 0.9060 in MAE, RMSE, MAPE and NSE, respectively. This study provides valuable insights for urban real-time flood forecasting modeling with high accuracy and evidence for activation function selection in data-driven models like STL-TCN-GRU for geographic heterogeneity.

Sea Surface Temperature Prediction in China Sea Based on SAM-LSTM Approach

Sea Surface Temperature (SST), a critical environmental element in the ocean, significantly impacts the global atmosphere-ocean energy balance and holds the potential to trigger severe weather like droughts, floods, and El Niño events. Therefore, the prediction of future SST dynamics is crucial to identifying these extreme events and mitigating the damage they caused. In this study, we introduce a time series prediction method based on the Self-Attention Mechanism-Long Short-Term Memory (SAM-LSTM) model. In addition, the historical time-series satellite data of SST anomaly (SSTA) is used instead of SST itself considering that the fluctuations of SST are very small compared to their absolute magnitudes. The Seasonal-Trend decomposition using Loess (STL) method is adopted to decompose the complex non-linear SSTA time series into trend components, seasonal components, and residual components. Then, the deseasonalized time series data at 6 locations in the Bohai Sea are used to train and valid the developed SAM-LSTM model. After that, the validated models are applied to the Yellow Sea, East China Sea, and South China Sea. The experimental results show that the combination of STL time series decomposition and SAM-LSTM can achieve high-precision prediction of daily SSTA than LSTM. This suggests that the methodology used in this paper has a good application for short-term daily SST prediction.

Trend Prediction of Vegetation and Drought by Informer Model Based on STL-EMD Decomposition of Ha Cai Tou Dang Water Source Area in the Maowusu Sandland

To accurately forecast the future development trend of vegetation in dry areas, it is crucial to continuously monitor phenology, vegetation health indices, and vegetation drought indices over an extended period. This is because drought caused by high temperatures significantly affects vegetation. This study thoroughly investigated the spatial and temporal variations in phenological characteristics and vegetation health indices in the abdominal part of Maowusu Sandland in China over the past 20 years. Additionally, it established a linear correlation between vegetation health and temperature indices in the arid zone. To address the issue of predicting long-term trends in vegetation drought changes, we have developed a method that combines the Informer deep learning model with seasonal and Seasonal Trend decomposition using Loess (STL) and empirical mode decomposition (EMD). Additionally, we have utilized the linearly correlated indices of vegetation health and meteorological data spanning 20 years to predict the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Temperature Vegetation Dryness Index (TVDI). The study’s findings indicate that over the 20-year observation period, there was an upward trend in NDVI, accompanied by a decrease in both the frequency and severity of droughts. Additionally, the STL-EMD-Informer model successfully predicted the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE = 1.16%) of the future trend in vegetation drought changes for the next decade. This suggests that the overall health of vegetation is expected to continue improving during that time. This work examined the plant growth circumstances in dry locations from several angles and developed a complete analytical method for predicting long-term droughts. The findings provide a strong scientific basis for ecological conservation and vegetation management in arid regions.

A novel hybrid STL-transformer-ARIMA architecture for aviation failure events prediction

Accurate prediction of aviation failure events helps to anticipate future safety situations and protect against further uncontrollable accidents. However, the large sample size, complex temporal characteristics, and significant long-term correlation of aviation failure events increase the operational cost of accurate prediction. To address these challenges, this paper proposes a novel approach involving seasonal-trend decomposition using Loess (STL) and a hybrid prediction model consisting of a transformer and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA). First, STL decomposition is utilized to isolate trend, seasonal, and remainder components, contributing to a comprehensive understanding of the events sample characteristics. The trend component is then trained and predicted using transformer, solving the vanishing gradient problem and improving computational efficiency. ARIMA is employed to train and predict the seasonal and remainder components, maintaining accuracy while reducing complexity. Finally, a comparative evaluation between the proposed and multiple existing approaches is conducted using Aviation Safety Reporting System (ASRS) data. The results demonstrate that the STL-transformer-ARIMA provides more accurate predictions of failure events than single model. It also exhibits significant advantages in robustness and generalization capacity compared to single transformer-based predictors. This revealed that the proposed approach performed better in predicting aviation failure events.

A hybrid deep learning method for the prediction of ship time headway using automatic identification system data

Ship Time Headway (STH) is used in maritime navigation to describe the time interval between the arrivals of two consecutive ships in the same water area. This measurement may offer a straightforward way to gauge the frequency of ship traffic and the likelihood of congestion in a particular area. STH is an important factor in understanding and managing the dynamics of ship movements in busy waterways. This paper introduces a hybrid deep learning method for predicting STH in time domain. The method integrates the Seasonal-Trend Decomposition using Loess (STL), Multi-head Self-Attention (MSA) mechanism into Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural network. The STH dataset was extracted from the Automatic Identification System (AIS) through ship trajectory spatial motion, and the seasonal, trend and residual components of the decomposition were then determined from the STH dataset using the STL algorithms. MSA-LSTM is adopted to comprehensively capture the evolving patterns of STH from the sequence. Comparison studies with existing methods demonstrate the accuracy and robustness of the predictions provided by this method, indicating that the proposed method outperforms other models in terms of prediction performance and learning capabilities. By predicting STH, the method offers potential to assist maritime traffic managers and navigators in assessing ship flow, thereby enabling them to make informed decisions on navigation safety and efficiency.

An intuitive unified hybrid approach for medium to long-term forecasting of different renewable energy sources

Forecasting of stochastic renewable energy resources is quintessential for effective planning, operations and management of the power systems. Existing literature contains ample studies on very short and short-term forecasting of renewables. But it’s still challenging to obtain high accuracy for medium-term and long-term forecasting. Therefore, an intuitive unified hybrid approach is proposed in this paper for medium to long-term forecasting of power generation from different weather-dependent renewables single-handedly by utilising their inherited periodic seasonal patterns iteratively year-on-year basis. Bi-LSTM (Bidirectional Long Short Term Memory) and ARIMA (Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average) are utilised to construct the proposed approach with the aid of STL (Seasonal-Trend decomposition using Loess) decomposition and data pre-processing. The performance of proposed approach (STL-ARIMA-BiLSTM) is validated using seven recent datasets of wind, solar and hydro power. It yields accurate forecasts for a week-ahead to a year-ahead forecasting horizons. MAE (Mean Absolute Error) lying in range from 6.3% to 6.6%, 5.6% to 6.7% and 4.72% for a year-ahead forecast of wind, hydro and solar power, respectively, is obtained. It is established that these long-term forecast errors are even less than the short-term forecast errors of some of the existing studies demonstrating novelty and practicality of the proposed approach.