Seasonal Perspective Research Articles

Dynamics and biodiversity of microbial community among seasons in Shanxi mature vinegar fermentation by semisolid-solid process.

Understanding the changes in microbial communities across different seasons is crucial for ensuring the quality of Shanxi mature vinegar (SMV) by the semisolid-solid process. In a complete seasonal cycle, the richness and diversity of fungi were higher than those of bacteria. The microbial community in summer fermentation was significantly different compared to the other three seasons. For example, the dominant microorganisms such as Acetobacter and Lactobacillus decreased in summer. Screening or modifying this group of bacteria to enhance their tolerance to high fermentation temperature is an approach to improve industrial SMV fermentation. Through co-occurrence network analysis, eight highly connected genera were identified, which may play important roles in ecosystem stability. These results also lay a theoretical foundation for the further development of multi-microbial co-fermentation. This work provides an understanding of SMV fermentation from a seasonal perspective and offers new guidance for the process control of grain vinegar brewing.

Composition of inshore ichthyoplankton community in the Canary islands from a spatial and seasonal perspective: Inshore ichthyoplankton of the Canary Islands

Early life stages of fish are insufficiently studied in most regions around the globe, and consequently, there is an important gap in knowledge on the life cycle of most teleosts. In the Canary Islands (Eastern Central Atlantic), most studies on ichthyoplankton communities are based on traditional net tows in open waters that provide information about early larval stages of pelagic species in the area, while nearshore benthic fish remain highly understudied. In this study, light traps were employed for the first time to assess post-larval stages of neritic fish in this archipelago. A two-year survey was carried out to collect nearshore fish larvae every 6 months at 11 localities from El Hierro, Tenerife and Lanzarote. A total of 3940 fish larvae classified into 13 orders, 28 families and 44 species were collected. These results provide a wide description of the composition of the inshore ichthyoplankton off the Canary Islands, across islands and seasons. Main environmental factors (SST, sea floor orography, oceanographic phenomena …) influencing the population dynamics of this community are discussed. Additionally, the ichthyoplankton assemblages were assessed from the intra-annual perspective, analyzing the species composition and abundances by months and seasons, and providing new insights into reproduction cycles of many common benthic fishes at shallow marine ecosystems of the islands. This study is important to further understand the life cycles of some of the most common fish species in the Canary Islands, unraveling main environmental factors that affect the success of their offspring that sustain populations.

Analysis of the Relationship between Upper-Level Aircraft Turbulence and the East Asian Westerly Jet Stream

The jet stream is a primary factor contributing to turbulence, especially for upper-level aircraft. This study utilized pilot reports and ERA5 data from 2023 to investigate the relationship between upper-level turbulence and the East Asian westerly jet (EAJ). The results indicate that approximately 45.9% of upper-level aircraft turbulence occurs within the jet stream, with the lowest proportion in August and the highest in January. Additionally, the strongest vertical wind shear (VMS) is found concentrated in the lower part of the jet stream core, particularly in the South–Down part of the jet stream, where upper-level aircraft turbulence occurs most frequently (27.1%). The most turbulent area is located between 30–40° N and 110–120° E, with the main air routes experiencing turbulence being the Henan sections of G212 and B208. From a seasonal perspective, there is less frequent occurrence of upper-level aircraft turbulence in summer and autumn but more in winter and spring. The EAJ volume increases with the strengthening of the jet core wind speed, with the jet core regions being most distinct at altitudes of 200~300 hPa. Meanwhile, the jet stream intensity index peaks at 70.6 m/s in January and reaches its lowest value of 7.1 m/s in August. The jet stream axis shifts southward in winter and northward in summer, reaching the southernmost position in December at 32.2° N and the northernmost position in August at 43.5° N. Furthermore, the VMS at turbulence points within the jet stream is higher than that at the turbulence points outside the jet stream, and the Richardson number (RI) is lower. Moreover, the temporal distribution of upper-level aircraft turbulence is primarily determined by the location and intensity of the jet stream, of which the jet stream intensity index provides guidance and thus serves as a reliable indicator.

A new addition to the toolbox: stone tool use in blonde capuchin monkeys (Sapajus flavius).

The use of tools played a central role in human culture and evolution. Early studies with apes demonstrated the tool use; however, currently the works have focused on Platyrrhine, particularly capuchin monkeys. Blonde capuchin monkeys, Sapajus flavius, have been observed using sticks to fish for termites in the Atlantic Forest, where this species has been extensively studied. In this study, we presented the first evidence of stone tool use by the blonde capuchin monkeys, as well as the dimensions and weight of these tools. We gathered data from three areas of Caatinga dry forest where we discovered this new tool use among the species. The mean weight of the hammers was 475.7g (± 142 SD). The mean height of the anvils was 48.3cm (± 18.7 SD), while the mean surface area of the anvils was 1.2 m2 (± 0.4 SD). We identified fruits and/ornuts from three plant species-Prunus dulces, Cnidoscolus quercifolius, and Syagrus coronate-near the anvils at the study sites. Additionally, we passively observed six instances of stone tool use by blonde capuchin monkeys. Their use of stones to crack encased foods mirrored behaviors previously reported in Sapajus libidinosus, a species well known for using stone tools to exploit hard nuts. Our findings place blonde capuchin monkeys among the list of primates that utilize stones as tools, highlighting the species' adaptability in exploiting resources within the Caatinga. Long-term studies are essentials to comprehend the use pattern of stone tools (across both general and seasonal perspectives) and the influence of variables, such as fruit hardness, distance to watercourses, and fruit availability on the use of this technology by this primate.

Advancing mastitis assessment in dairy bovines via short milking tube thermography: A seasonal perspective.

In India, where dairy production leads globally, infrared thermography (IRT) and short milking tube thermography specifically are vital for managing mastitis. Therefore, the present study focuses on thermal imaging of the udder and short milking tube (SMT) of the milking machine during the peak milking process of Sahiwal cows and Murrah buffaloes during winter, summer, rainy and autumn seasons to identify sub-clinical (SCM) and clinical mastitis (CM) cases using the Darvi DTL007 camera. The udder health was assessed using the California Mastitis Test, Somatic Cell Count (SCC) and IRT throughout the year. Log10SCC and thermogram analysis revealed a difference (p < 0.01) between healthy, SCM, and CM cases during different seasons in both breeds. Further results showed an increase (p < 0.01) in SMT thermograms of SCM and CM cases compared to healthy quarters in Sahiwal cows during winter, summer, rainy, and autumn were 4.26 and 7.51, 2.37 and 4.47, 2.20 and 3.64, 2.90 and 4.94 ºC, respectively and for Murrah buffaloes were 3.56 and 5.55, 2.70 and 3.81, 1.72 and 3.10, 3.14 and 4.42ºC, respectively. The highest degree of increase in milking udder skin surface temperature and SMT of SCM and CM cases compared to healthy quarters was observed during the winter and the least during the rainy season. Thus, regardless of the seasons examined in this study, SMT thermograms effectively assessed SCM and CM.

Assessing the Ecological Quality Status in tropical Indian estuaries: testing the applicability of benthic foraminiferal indices.

The ecological quality status (EcoQS) of Vellar and Uppanar estuaries (Southeast coast of India) has been monitored monthly, using a combination of foraminiferal (Foram Stress Index: FSI and exp(H'bc) indices and abiotic (Pollution Load Index: PLI, Dissolved Oxygen: DO, and Total Organic Carbon: TOC) parameters. The Uppanar Estuary shows relatively higher values of PLI and TOC and lower DO values than Vellar Estuary. The highest value of TOC and PLI are recorded during the monsoon season. These variations are well mirrored by the change in exp(H'bc) and FSI. The lowest values of exp(H'bc) are observed with the monsoon season and could be ascribed by an overall reduction of salinity, and to the highest level of TOC and PLI in response to enhanced river discharge. The FSI also exhibits great variability with significant higher values in the Vellar Estuary than in the Uppanar Estuary. The EcoQS evaluated by a combination of pollution- (i.e., PLI, TOC and DO) and foraminiferal-based [i.e., FSI and exp(H'bc)] indices are highly consistent (73.4%). The most frequent disagreement among indices is mostly associated to Uppanar Estuary and, particularly, in the inner stations. This difference might be related to a time-lag response of benthic foraminifera in terms of diversity and assemblages' compositions as well as of the pollution indicators in response to enhanced riverine input. This study further supports the application of foraminiferal-based indices in EcoQS assessment in transitional environments including tropical Indian estuaries. It also fills the gap of knowledge by providing a seasonal perspective on the variation of EcoQS based on a monthly-scale sampling.

Seasonal variations of Arctic cloud in recent 14 years using CALIPSO-GOCCP

This study documents the three-dimensional structure and long-term trend of Arctic cloud cover with 14-year Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations from a seasonal perspective. Results show that Arctic Ocean presents larger low-level cloudiness and more evident vertical contrast between low and high-level cloud cover than Arctic land. Furthermore, Arctic Atlantic experiences the largest total and low-level cloud cover all year long, with relatively weak seasonal variation. In contrast, the low-level cloud cover over Arctic Pacific displays a pronounced bimodal annual cycle, as well as the low-level cloud cover over Arctic land. Arctic Atlantic with the maximum cloud fraction has the highest altitude of about 1.2 km above open sea in winter, which is near the surface in summer. The cloudiness in the lower troposphere over open water is significantly larger than that over ice except in winter, whereas, the liquid-containing cloud over open water is significantly larger than that over ice in the lower troposphere in four seasons. Moreover, though the liquid-containing cloud dominates the low-level cloud cover, its increasing trend is driven by liquid-containing and ice-containing cloud together. Instead, the ice-containing cloud dominates the high-level cloud cover and its increasing trend in all seasons over most Arctic regions, except a negative trend over Greenland in winter. Our work presents a more comprehensive picture of the Arctic cloud cover, which provides an insight into understanding of Arctic cloud and Arctic climate system.

Exploring the spatial and seasonal heterogeneity of cooling effect of an urban river on a landscape scale

Urban water bodies can effectively mitigate the urban heat island effect and thus enhance the climate resilience of urban areas. The cooling effect of different water bodies varies, however, the cooling heterogeneity of different sections of a single watercourse or river network is rarely considered. Based on various satellite images, geospatial approaches and statistical analyses, our study confirmed the cooling heterogeneity from spatial and seasonal perspectives of the Suzhou Outer-city River in detail in the urban area of Suzhou, China. The cooling effect of the river was observed in the daytime in four seasons, and it is strongest in summer, followed by spring and autumn, and weakest in winter. The combination of the width of the river reach, the width and the NDVI value of the adjacent green space can explain a significant part of the cooling heterogeneity of the different river sections in different seasons. Land surface temperature (LST) variations along the river are more related to the width of the river reach, but the variations of the cooling distance are more related to the adjacent green space. The cooling effect of a river reach could be enhanced if it is accompanied by green spaces. In addition, the cooling effect of a looping river is stronger on the inside area than on the outside. The methodology and results of this study could help orient scientific landscape strategies in urban planning for cooler cities.

Spatiotemporal trends and variability of rainfall across agro-ecologies in East Guji Zone, Southeast Ethiopia

Distribution and trends of rainfall reveal spatial and temporal variability that have a paramount effect on the life and livelihood of small-holder farmers. This study aimed to analyze spatial variability and temporal trends of rainfall distribution across the three Agro-Ecological Zones (AEZs) of East Guji. Time series gridded daily rainfall data (1990–2020) were collected from the Ethiopian Meteorological Institution. Different descriptive statistics, trend tests: Man Kendal and Sen’s slope estimator, Inverse Distance Weighted Index and Precipitation Concentration Index (PCI) was used in the study. The finding demonstrated that altitude and rainfall decrease as one advances from the western (highland) to the eastern (lowland) direction in the study area where the highest rainfall was recorded in Solemo (highland) and the least in Negele (lowland).The study showed that as altitude increases annual rainfall also increases and rainfall variability decreases. Similarly the mean length of the growing season declines as one advance from the highlands to the lowlands. The PCI of the lowlands, midlands, and highlands AEZs was 19%, 17%, and 12% respectively. The PCI showed that those highlands had moderately concentrated rainfall but both lowlands, and midlands, had an irregular distribution of rainfall. The Coefficient of Variation (CV) indicated that highland areas had moderate variability in rainfall in all seasons except winter. In contrast, the low and midlands had shown high variability of rainfall (&gt;30%) in all seasons. From a seasonal perspective, both CV and PCI revealed that the winter season showed more variability than others. Moreover, a significant increasing trend of annual rainfall was observed in the highlands AEZs (Bore 15.3mm/year and Solemo14.6mm/year), lowland AEZs (Chembe 10.9mm/year, Dawa 8mm/year and Bitata 7.8mm/year) as well as midland AEZs (Kercha 14.5mm/year) at a significant level of 5%. Therefore, strategies should be designed to use additional water resources for irrigation; and provide short-cycle grown and drought-resistant crops in the rest of the midlands and lowlands AEZs.

Accelerometer-based and self-reported physical activity of children and adolescents from a seasonal perspective.

Many children and adolescents in Europe are insufficiently physically active, which makes the advancement of children's physical activity a critical health promotion target. However, there are some environmental factors, such as the amount of daylight, weather conditions, temperature, and precipitation levels, which might influence physical activity behavior. The purpose of this study was to assess accelerometer-based and self-reported daily physical activity of children and adolescents in Luxembourg, during autumn/winter as well as during spring/summer, and to examine if there is a seasonal influence on the physical activity behavior. At two measurements, one in autumn/winter and one in spring/summer, physical activity of N = 137 (59.12% females; M = 12.37 years) participating children and adolescents aged 10-18 years was objectively undertaken via an accelerometer (ActiGraph) and subjectively assessed using, among others, one item of the MoMo physical activity questionnaire. A repeated measures ANOVA revealed a significant seasonal effect on moderate to vigorous physical activity per day [F(1.000, 135.000) = 7.69, p < 0.05, partial η² = 0.054]. More minutes of moderate to vigorous physical activity per day were accrued in spring/summer than in autumn/winter. The mean difference scores between the accelerometer-based and the self-reported physical activity at the two time periods, T1 and T2, correlated significantly (r = 0.31, p < 0.001). According to these results, children and adolescents are less physically active in autumn/winter than in spring/summer. However, the discrepancy between the accelerometer-based and the self-reported physical activity remains stable over the two measurements. Therefore, schools, sports clubs, and communities should offer special physical activity programs for the colder season.

Kış ve ilkbaharda marketlerden toplanan tereyağı örneklerinde Aflatoksin M1 düzeyinin araştırılması

Aflatoxin B1 (AFB1) found in animal feeds is converted to M1 (AFM1) in animals. It contaminates all dairy products made from the milk of these animals. In this study, AFM1 levels were investigated by competitive ELISA, which is a highly sensitive method in 84 butter samples collected from various markets based on the legal toxin limit of 0.05 μg/kg (50 ng/L) in Turkey. While the presence of AFM1 at different levels was detected in 79 (94%) of the 84 butter samples examined, it was determined that the legal limit was exceeded in 67 (79.7%) of these samples. When the results are evaluated from a seasonal perspective, 37 (88.1%) of 42 butter samples collected in January-February and all (100%) in May were contaminated with AFM1 at various levels. As a result of the study, it was thought that the AFM1 levels determined in butter samples may be a severe public health problem and that the AFB1 levels of animal feeds and store conditions should be controlled regularly. The fact that toxin levels were higher in the spring than in the winter was interpreted as the animals being unable to go to the pasture due to weather conditions and continuing to feed on store feed.

Urban heat islands characterized by six thermal indicators

The urban heat island (UHI) effect alters local thermal environment and affects thermal comfort of urban dwellers. However, the similarities and differences of the UHI when characterized by different thermal indicators (i.e., different types of temperatures and thermal comfort indices) remain poorly understood. Taking 30 major Chinese cities as an example, here we compared the spatiotemporal patterns and drivers of the UHI intensity (UHII) represented by six different thermal indicators, i.e., Ia (UHII represented by surface air temperature), Is (land surface temperature), Id (dew-point temperature), IHD (Humidex), Imrt (mean radiant temperature), and IUTCI (Universal Thermal Climate Index). These thermal indicators encompass temperature factors that capture changes in the natural environment and thermal comfort indices that reflect the human perception of changes in ambient heat and humidity. The results show that the ranking of the annual mean UHII is similar between the day and night (i.e., Is > IUTCI > Imrt > Ia > IHD > Id). From a seasonal perspective, the daytime Is and Imrt exhibit the highest variability among all indicators, while the IUTCI demonstrates the largest difference among climate zones. Regarding the UHI drivers, most of the UHI indicators (except Id) are negatively correlated with the urban-rural difference in vegetation index during the day. At night, the UHI indicators are negatively related to the climatic variables and the urban-rural difference in albedo. Our results by using the IUTCI to assess outdoor thermal comfort across local climate zones (LCZs) show that the inter-LCZ standard deviation of the IUTCI is 1.94 °C during the day and 2.16 °C at night. We believe that these results deepen our understanding of the UHII when characterized by different thermal indicators, especially from the human perception perspective.

Seasonality of top-down control of bacterioplankton at two central Red Sea sites with different trophic status.

The role of bottom-up (nutrient availability) and top-down (grazers and viruses mortality) controls on tropical bacterioplankton have been rarely investigated simultaneously from a seasonal perspective. We have assessed them through monthly samplings over 2 years in inshore and offshore waters of the central Red Sea differing in trophic status. Flow cytometric analysis allowed us to distinguish five groups of heterotrophic bacteria based on physiological properties (nucleic acid content, membrane integrity and active respiration), three groups of cyanobacteria (two populations of Synechococcus and Prochlorococcus), heterotrophic nanoflagellates (HNFs) and three groups of viruses based on nucleic acid content. The dynamics of bacterioplankton and their top-down controls varied with season and location, being more pronounced in inshore waters. HNFs abundances showed a strong preference for larger prey inshore (r = -0.62 to -0.59, p = 0.001-0.002). Positive relationships between viruses and heterotrophic bacterioplankton abundances were more marked inshore (r = 0.67, p < 0.001) than offshore (r = 0.44, p = 0.03). The negative correlation between HNFs and viruses abundances (r = -0.47, p = 0.02) in shallow waters indicates a persistent seasonal switch between protistan grazing and viral lysis that maintains the low bacterioplankton stocks in the central Red Sea area.

Forecasting the Spread of COVID-19 Using Deep Learning and Big Data Analytics Methods.

To contain the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic, there is a need for cutting-edge approaches that make use of existing technology capabilities. Forecasting its spread in a single or multiple countries ahead of time is a common strategy in most research. There is, however, a need for all-inclusive studies that capitalize on the entire regions on the African continent. This study closes this gap by conducting a wide-ranging investigation and analysis to forecast COVID-19 cases and identify the most critical countries in terms of the COVID-19 pandemic in all five major African regions. The proposed approach leveraged both statistical and deep learning models that included the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model with a seasonal perspective, the long-term memory (LSTM), and Prophet models. In this approach, the forecasting problem was considered as a univariate time series problem using confirmed cumulative COVID-19 cases. The model performance was evaluated using seven performance metrics that included the mean-squared error, root mean-square error, mean absolute percentage error, symmetric mean absolute percentage error, peak signal-to-noise ratio, normalized root mean-square error, and the R2 score. The best-performing model was selected and used to make future predictions for the next 61days. In this study, the long short-term memory model performed the best. Mali, Angola, Egypt, Somalia, and Gabon from the Western, Southern, Northern, Eastern, and Central African regions, with an expected increase of 22.77%, 18.97%, 11.83%, 10.72%, and 2.81%, respectively, were the most vulnerable countries with the highest expected increase in the number of cumulative positive cases.

Contribution of homestead food garden towards food availability in Tshwane Metropolitan Municipality - Region 7, Gauteng Province of South Africa

The government of South Africa has a political and economic incentive to guarantee that people have access to enough nutritious food to always meet their needs, but many households in the nation still struggle to attain food security. Among its various initiatives, the South African government has introduced a Homestead Food Garden (HFG) program that aims to increase food production to combat hunger, malnutrition, and food insecurity. Even though the struggle to achieve food security at household level in peri-urban areas of Gauteng Province dates back a long period, it has remained as a challenge goal even today. The study's objective was to determine how much HFG contributes to the availability of food in households in region 7 in the City of Tshwane and the factors that influence this availability using the Ordered Logistic Regression (ORD) model. A total of eleven explanatory variables were included in the pragmatic model. To ensure a representative sample size, 258 individuals were chosen at random from the study's survey design, which was quantitative in nature. Face-to-face interviews were conducted to gather data using a semi-structured questionnaire. The results showed that 83% of the participants continued to cultivate their homestead gardens after receiving support from HFG program; thus, the program improved food availability in the households of the gardeners. Food availability was positively and significantly influenced by age, other support program received, and the availability of homestead gardens (p&lt;0.01). From seasonal perspectives, there were more food available from domestic gardens in the summer than in the winter. In addition, more food was available in spring season gardens than in summer and winter. The type of food crops cultivated by majority (65%) of the participants was spinach. As such, HFG program improved household food availability mostly during spring and summer. Therefore, it is advised that policymakers should encourage targeted communities and youth to utilize vacant space in their backyards for food gardening. As part of HFG program, government should provide training about rainwater harvesting techniques to enable gardeners to conserve water for sustainable production throughout the year. Key words: Homestead Food Garden, Food availability, Food security, Households, Gauteng Province

Millimetre-scale biomarker heterogeneity in lacustrine shale identifies the nature of signal-averaging and demonstrates anaerobic respiration control on organic matter preservation and dolomitization

Mm-scale and/or µm-scale in situ inorganic geochemical analyses of organic-rich, laminated fine-grained sediments increasingly offer decadal or even seasonal perspectives of ecological or environmental dynamics. Organic geochemical studies, in contrast, seldom explicitly consider mm-scale variability, so that it remains unclear to what extent organic geochemical proxy-based reconstructions are a product of signal-averaging of higher-resolution variability. Here we assess the 2–8 mm-scale variability in organic geochemical proxies for depositional environment and organic source, utilising an organic-rich, low maturity and well-laminated shale from the Eocene Shahejie Formation, Dongying Depression, Bohai Bay Basin. We identify mm-scale (approximately decadal-scale) compositional variability that is comparable in magnitude to vertical variability at the m-scale (approximately millennial-scale), test multiple relationships between key biomarker and mineral proxies at the mm-scale, and assess likely implications for palaeowater conditions, anaerobic heterotrophic microbial activity, early diagenetic dolomitization, and organic matter preservation. Our results suggest that the decadal-scale oscillation of organic carbon content is a result of varying degrees of anaerobic heterotrophic microbial reworking with periodic euxinia in the deep photic zone. In contrast to previous models based on analysis of bulk samples, our results suggest that anaerobic respiration during intervals of more intense/persistent euxinia is likely accompanied by more organic matter loss. Variable low-light euxinia seems to be a modifier to the net OM content. The analysis of bulk samples may hide important relationships at shorter temporal scales which are key to reconstructing palaeoenvironments and the operation of key controls on, for example, the carbon cycle.

Summer O3 pollution cycle characteristics and VOCs sources in a central city of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei area, China

One of the major pollutants influencing urban air quality in China is O3. O3 is the second most important pollutant affecting air quality in Shijiazhuang, which is the third largest city in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei area and the provincial capital of Hebei province. To fully understand the characteristics of O3 and volatile organic compounds (VOCs), which are O3 precursors, and the role of VOCs to ozone formation, we measured the hourly concentrations of O3 and 85 VOCs in Shijiazhuang continuously from January to November 2020, and the concentration characteristics of both together with the chemical reactivity and sources of VOCs were analyzed from a seasonal perspective. The O3 concentration in Shijiazhuang showed a phenomenon of high summer and low winter, and the VOCs showed a phenomenon of high winter and low spring. In the summer when the O3 exceedance rate is the highest, the time-domain variation characteristics of O3 were analyzed by wavelet analysis model, and the main periods controlling the O3 concentration variation in Shijiazhuang in summer 2020 were 52 days, 32 days, 19 days and 12 days. The maximum incremental reactivity (MIR) and propylene equivalence method indicated ethene, propylene and 1-pentene were common substances in the top five species of each season. The T/B, Iso-p/N-p, Iso-p/E, N-p/E, and positive matrix factorization (PMF) model showed that industrial source (18.62%–22.03%) and vehicle emission (13.20%–17.69%) were the major VOCs sources in Shijiazhuang. Therefore, to control the O3 concentration in Shijiazhuang, it is necessary to decrease alkenes emissions as well as VOCs from industrial source and vehicle emission.

An Early Warning System for Heatwave-Induced Health Risks in China: A Sub-Seasonal to Seasonal Perspective - China, 2022.

Climate change has had a detrimental impact on global health, particularly through the rise of extreme heatwaves. Presently, the early warning system for heatwave-related health risks can forecast potential dangers several days in advance; however, long-term warnings fall short. This report introduces a novel early warning system aimed at predicting heatwave-induced health risks in China at sub-seasonal to seasonal timescales. The outcomes of the assessment suggest this system holds significant potential. The system facilitates advanced assessment of both the scale and dispersal of risk among various demographic groups. This allows for the proactive management of potential risks with extended lead times.

Modelling floating riverine litter in the south-eastern Bay of Biscay: a regional distribution from a seasonal perspective

Abstract. Although rivers contribute to the flux of litter to the marine environment, estimates of riverine litter amounts and detailed studies on floating riverine litter behaviour once it has reached the sea are still scarce. This paper provides an analysis of the seasonal behaviour of floating marine litter released by rivers within the south-eastern Bay of Biscay based on riverine litter characterizations, drifters, and high-frequency radar observations and Lagrangian simulations. Virtual particles were released in the coastal area as a proxy of the floating fraction of riverine litter entering from rivers and reaching the open waters. Particles were parameterized with a wind drag coefficient (Cd) to represent their trajectories and fate according to the buoyancy of the litter items. They were forced with numerical winds and measured currents provided by high-frequency radars covering selected seasonal week-long periods between 2009 and 2021. To gain a better insight into the type and buoyancy of the items, samples collected from a barrier placed at the Deba River (Spain) were characterized at the laboratory. Items were grouped into two categories: low-buoyancy items (objects not exposed to wind forcing, e.g. plastic bags) and highly buoyant items (objects highly exposed to wind forcing, e.g. bottles). Overall, low-buoyancy items encompassed almost 90 % by number and 68 % by weight. Weakly buoyant items were parameterized with Cd = 0 % and highly buoyant items with Cd = 4 %; this latter value is the result of the joint analysis of modelled and observed trajectories of four satellite drifting buoys released at the Adour (France), Deba (Spain), and Oria (Spain) river mouths. Particles parameterized with Cd = 4 % drifted faster towards the coast through the wind, notably during the first 24 h. In summer, over 97 % of particles beached after 1 week of simulation. In autumn this value fell to 54 %. In contrast, low-buoyancy items took longer to arrive at the shoreline, particularly during spring with fewer than 25 % of particles beached by the end of the simulations. The highest concentrations (&gt;200 particles km−1) were recorded during summer for Cd = 4 % in the French region of Pyrénées-Atlantiques. Results showed that the regions in the study area were highly affected by rivers within or nearby the region itself. These results couple observations and a river-by-river modelling approach and can assist decision-makers on setting emergency responses to high fluxes of floating riverine litter and on defining future monitoring strategies for heavily polluted regions within the south-eastern Bay of Biscay.

Trends in the indices of precipitation phases under current warming in Poland, 1966–2020

In Poland the phase in which precipitation occurs impacts the availability of water in its reservoirs, the potential for hydrological droughts, snowfall flooding and winter recreation. The influence of warming on the occurrence of precipitation phases on the Polish scale has not been studied so far. Based on data from 42 synoptic stations for the period 1966–2020, this study discusses trends in the indices of liquid (Lq), mixed (Mx) and solid (Sd) precipitation describing their totals (T), frequencies (Nd) and contribution to overall precipitation totals (T%) and a number of days with overall precipitation (Nd%) from a seasonal perspective. Moreover, the influence of seasonal and daily air temperatures on long-term variability in the precipitation phase indices was assessed. The precipitation phase was discriminated based on the observations of weather phenomena noted as current and past weather considering days with precipitation ≥ 0.1 mm. Precipitation phases significantly reacted to current warming. The strongest and widespread were increasing trends in rains (+1.74 for LqNd, +5.35 mm for LqT, +3.51% for LqNd%, +4.08% for LqT% per decade) and decreasing trends in snowfalls (−1.92 for SdNd, −3.12 mm for SdT, −3.65% for SdNd%, −3.26% for SdT% per decade) in winter when the warming was weakest but average temperature was close to freezing point. In winter, air temperature explained 60%–80% of the variance in the frequency of snowfall and rainfall. Daily air temperature > –2 °C contributed to trends in winter rainfall while daily air temperature > 1 °C most contributed to trends in winter snowfall. No trends in winter mixed precipitation were due to opposite changes in its frequency above and below 1 °C. In spring, the increase in a liquid phase was due more to the melting of a solid and mixed phase, while in autumn, it was due more to the transformation of a mixed phase into a liquid phase. In spring, air temperature explained at most 30%–50% of the variance in the indices of snowfall frequency. Negative trends in mixed precipitation were significant in transitional seasons, being more prominent in spring than in autumn and were mostly driven by changes in daily air temperatures between 0 and 5 °C. A diminished percentage of summer rains on days with air temperatures below 15 °C was compensated by their increase above that threshold thus producing no long-term trends. Warming significantly weakened the relationships between precipitation phases and average seasonal air temperatures except for summer rainfalls.