Seasonal Coverage Research Articles

A year-long record of low-frequency, long-range, ducted sound propagation from the Canada Basin to the Chukchi Shelf

The Pacific Arctic Region, has experienced decadal changes in atmospheric conditions, seasonal sea-ice coverage, and seawater temperature. From the October 2016 to September 2017, the Canada Basin Acoustic Propagation Experiment (CANAPE) was conducted to understand the changing soundscape and to explore the use of acoustic signals as a remote sensing tool in the modern Arctic. During the experiment, low-frequency signals from five tomographic sources located in the Canada Basin were recorded by an array of hydrophones with both horizontal and vertical apertures located on the Chukchi Shelf at the 150 m isobath. The propagation distances ranged from 240 km to 520 km, and the propagation conditions changed from persistently ducted in the basin to seasonally upward refracting on the continental shelf. The water column properties and ice draft were measured by oceanographic sensors on the basin tomography moorings and by an array of oceanographic moorings on the continental shelf and slope to characterize the temporal and spatial variability of the environment. This talk examines the range-dependent measurements and explains the observed variability in the received signals through propagation modeling using the oceanographic measurements. [Work sponsored by ONR.]

Harvesting geo-spatial data on coastal fish assemblages through coordinated citizen science

In response to repeated complaints from recreational and commercial coastal fishermen about declining fishing opportunities in inner Danish waters, focus was directed to inshore fish stocks. However, without data targeting inshore areas, it was not possible to investigate potential changes in fish distribution or abundances, or their causes. As a first step, a voluntary catch registration system was initiated in 2002, in collaboration with locally organized recreational fishermen. Using citizen science as a methodology, scientists and the fishermen developed a protocol for data collection, which the fishermen then implemented. The aim was to establish regular monitoring of fish catches from gill net and fyke net fisheries in coastal waters around Denmark in order to provide data that could inform management. After three years, during which time recreational fishermen could use their own gear and fish where they normally fished, the data was evaluated. As a result, the fishing method was switched in 2005 to fixed gears and fixed positions, to enable comparison between areas, years and season. The project has been very successful in recruiting highly motivated fishermen, who register their entire catch regularly. The time-series of data spans more than a decade and covers over 16,000 instances of fishing. The data from this project are now being used to create coastal fish indicators for managers to assess environmental status at a regional scale. Here we present an analysis of a subset of the data on one species, the European flounder (Platichthys flesus), to illustrate how the spatial and seasonal coverage can be utilized further for investigation of coastal ecosystems and to inform management.

Pesticide Risks in Small Streams-How to Get as Close as Possible to the Stress Imposed on Aquatic Organisms.

The risks associated with pesticides in small streams remain poorly characterized. The challenges reside in understanding the complexities of (1) the highly dynamic concentration profiles of (2) several hundred active substances with (3) differing seasonality. The present study addressed these three challenges simultaneously. Five small streams in catchments under intensive agricultural land use were sampled using half-day composite samples from March to August 2015. Of 213 active substances quantified using liquid chromatography-high resolution mass spectrometry, a total of 128 was detected at least at one of the sites. Ecotoxicological acute and/or chronic quality criteria were exceeded for a total of 32 different active substances. The evaluation of risks over time revealed the necessity to evaluate the sequences of different active substances that are imposed on aquatic organisms. In contrast, a substance-specific perspective provides only a very limited assessment. Scenarios for reduction of either temporal resolution, number of substances or seasonal coverage were defined. It could be shown that risks can be underestimated by more than a factor of 10 in vulnerable catchments and that an increased temporal resolution is essential to cover acute risks but that a focused selection of substances is a possibility to reduce expenditures.

Impact of short-term climate effects and sea ice coverage variation on Japanese scallop aquaculture in Saroma Lake, Japan

Saroma Lake is the southernmost lagoon exhibiting seasonal sea ice coverage in the Northern hemisphere and one of the most important aquaculture areas for Japanese scallops (Mizuhopecten yessoensis). Under conditions of adequate food and appropriate temperature, scallops grow well from the time of ice melting in April to harvesting starting in July. However, over the past decade, Saroma Lake frequently has not been completely covered by ice in winter, and the production of Japanese scallops has shown significant changes. Therefore, this study integrated data from satellite remote sensing, buoys, and in situ observations with climatic events [the winter East Asian Monsoon (EAM) and El Niño/La Niña–Southern Oscillation events] to investigate the impact of ice coverage variations on scallop growth in Saroma Lake between 2007 and 2015. Daily ice conditions were detected using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer false colour images and an unsupervised classification method. The results indicated that EAM strongly influenced the ice coverage variation in Saroma Lake through their effects on temperature during winter. Ice coverage variations show a strong correlation with water temperature and spring phytoplankton blooms, which are the two most important environmental factors for scallop growth. In addition, extreme climate events could cause water temperature anomalies (as in 2015) which are unfavourable for scallop growth. Monitoring ice conditions should be considered when developing plans and management strategies for scallop aquaculture in Saroma Lake.

Seasonal variability of shallow cumuliform snowfall: A CloudSat perspective

Cumuliform snowfall seasonal variability is studied using a multi‐year CloudSat snowfall rate and cloud classification retrieval dataset. Microwave radiometer sea ice concentration datasets are also utilized to illustrate the intimate link between oceanic cumuliform snowfall production and decreased sea ice coverage. Three metrics are calculated to illustrate seasonal cumuliform snowfall signatures: (a) cumuliform snowfall frequency of occurrence, (b) mean cumuliform snowfall rate, and (c) fraction of snowfall attributed to cumuliform snowfall events. Distinct seasonal cumuliform snowfall cycles are observed over the Northern Hemispheric oceans. Cumuliform snowfall frequency of occurrence (mean snowfall rate) peaks in months SON (DJF) at most latitudes. Maximum mean cumuliform snowfall rates exceed 300 mm/year in various North Atlantic Ocean locations, with DJF exhibiting the largest areal extent of higher snowfall rates. Cumuliform snow occurrence fraction frequently exceeds 0.5, but regional seasonal sensitivity is observed where transient sea ice coverage exists. Annual snowfall rate fraction attributed to cumuliform snow does not vary appreciably during SON, DJF and MAM north of ∼70°N, but seasonal zonal variability is evident south of this latitudinal threshold. Land cumuliform snowfall features do not universally display strong seasonal signals. Southern Hemisphere seasonal results indicate a strong mean cumuliform snowfall rate maximum (minimum) in JJA (DJF) accompanied by a seasonal latitudinal shift in the snowfall rate peak. Maximum regional snowfall rates exceed 300 mm/year over a broader area compared to the Northern Hemisphere. Cumuliform snowfall production is again strongly linked to seasonal sea ice coverage. Southern Hemispheric cumuliform snowfall occurrence and snowfall rate fraction seasonality is not as obvious as in the Northern Hemisphere, but some latitudinal zones experience ∼5–20% seasonal variability in these quantities. Typical cumuliform snowfall fractions range from 0.4 to 0.6 in the prominent cumuliform snowfall belt covering most of the Southern Ocean. Some subtle seasonal cumuliform snowfall signatures are observed over Antarctica.

Interannual and Diurnal Variability in Water Ice Clouds Observed from MSL Over Two Martian Years

AbstractWe update the results of cloud imaging sequences from the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) rover Curiosity to complete two Mars years of observations (LS=160° of Mars year (MY) 31 to LS=160° of MY 33). Relatively good seasonal coverage is achieved within the study period, with just over 500 observations obtained, averaging one observation every 2–3 sols. Cloud opacity measurements are made using differential photometry and a simplified radiative transfer method. These opacity measurements are used to assess the interannual variability of the aphelion cloud belt (ACB) for MY 32 and 33. Upon accounting for a statistical bias in the data set, the variation is found to be <30% within uncertainty. Diurnal variation of the ACB is also able to be examined in MY 33 owing to an increased number of early morning observations in this year. Although a gap in data around local noon prevents a complete assessment, we find that cloud opacity is moderately increased in the morning hours (07:00–09:00) compared to the late afternoon (15:00–17:00).

How close are countries of the WHO European Region to achieving the goal of vaccinating 75% of key risk groups against influenza? Results from national surveys on seasonal influenza vaccination programmes, 2008/2009 to 2014/2015

BackgroundInfluenza vaccination is recommended especially for persons at risk of complications. In 2003, the World Health Assembly urged Member States (MS) to increase vaccination coverage to 75% among older persons by 2010. ObjectiveTo assess progress towards the 2010 vaccination goal and describe seasonal influenza vaccination recommendations in the World Health Organization (WHO) European Region. MethodsData on seasonal influenza vaccine recommendations, dose distribution, and target group coverage were obtained from two sources: European Union and European Economic Area MS data were extracted from influenza vaccination surveys covering seven seasons (2008/2009–2014/2015) published by the Vaccine European New Integrated Collaboration Effort and European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control. For the remaining WHO European MS, a separate survey on policies and uptake for all seasons (2008/2009–2014/2015) was distributed to national immunization programmes in 2015. ResultsData was available from 49 of 53 MS. All but two had a national influenza vaccination policy. High-income countries distributed considerably higher number of vaccines per capita (median; 139.2 per 1000 population) compared to lower-middle-income countries (median; 6.1 per 1000 population). Most countries recommended vaccination for older persons, individuals with chronic disease, healthcare workers, and pregnant women. Children were included in < 50% of national policies. Only one country reached 75% coverage in older persons (2014/2015), while a number of countries reported declining vaccination uptake. Coverage of target groups was overall low, but with large variations between countries. Vaccination coverage was not monitored for several groups. ConclusionsDespite policy recommendations, influenza vaccination uptake remains suboptimal. Low levels of vaccination is not only a missed opportunity for preventing influenza in vulnerable groups, but could negatively affect pandemic preparedness. Improved understanding of barriers to influenza vaccination is needed to increase uptake and reverse negative trends. Furthermore, implementation of vaccination coverage monitoring is critical for assessing performance and impact of the programmes.

Getting the full picture: Assessing the complementarity of citizen science and agency monitoring data.

While the role of citizen science in engaging the public and providing large-scale datasets has been demonstrated, the nature of and potential for this science to supplement environmental monitoring efforts by government agencies has not yet been fully explored. To this end, the present study investigates the complementarity of a citizen science programme to agency monitoring of water quality. The Environment Agency (EA) is the governmental public body responsible for, among other duties, managing and monitoring water quality and water resources in England. FreshWater Watch (FWW) is a global citizen science project that supports community monitoring of freshwater quality. FWW and EA data were assessed for their spatio-temporal complementarity by comparing the geographical and seasonal coverage of nitrate (N-NO3) sampling across the River Thames catchment by the respective campaigns between spring 2013 and winter 2015. The analysis reveals that FWW citizen science-collected data complements EA data by filling in both gaps in the spatial and temporal coverage as well as gaps in waterbody type and size. In addition, partial spatio-temporal overlap in sampling efforts by the two actors is discovered, but EA sampling is found to be more consistent than FWW sampling. Statistical analyses indicate that regardless of broader geographical overlap in sampling effort, FWW sampling sites are associated with a lower stream order and water bodies of smaller surface areas than EA sampling sites. FWW also samples more still-water body sites than the EA. As a possible result of such differences in sampling tendencies, nitrate concentrations, a measure of water quality, are lower for FWW sites than EA sites. These findings strongly indicate that citizen science has clear potential to complement agency monitoring efforts by generating information on freshwater ecosystems that would otherwise be under reported.

Acoustic propagation from the Canadian Basin to the Chukchi Shelf

The Pacific Arctic Region, encompassing the Bering, Chukchi, Western Beaufort, and Eastern Siberian shelves and seas, has experienced decadal changes in atmospheric conditions, seasonal sea-ice coverage, and seawater temperature. In the summer of 2016, the Canada Basin Acoustic Propagation Experiment (CANAPE) was conducted to understand the changing soundscape and to explore the use of acoustic signals as a remote sensing tool in the modern Arctic. During the experiment, low-frequency signals from five tomographic sources located in the Canada Basin were recorded by a short vertical line array of hydrophones deployed from a research vessel. The recordings were made at seven stations located in the Canada Basin, on the continental rise, and on the Chukchi Shelf. The propagation distances ranged from 50 km to 500 km, and the propagation conditions changed from ducted by the Beaufort Lens in the basin to upward refracting on the continental shelf. Multiple measurements of the sound speed profile were acquire...

Effect of combined seasonal coverage on northern production of strawberry (Fragaria ananassa Duch)

Two field trials with five strawberry cultivars planted on a woven black polyfibre ground cover sheet with or without translucent sheet plant coverage during winter and the growing season as combined treatments were started in 2004 and 2005. In total, nine different cultivars were included in the two fields. One early cv. ‘Polka’ and one late cv. ‘Korona’ acted as standard cultivars, while the other cultivars were new, named or labelled selections from Norwegian, Finnish and Swedish breeding programs. Winter survival, spring vigour, earliness, saleable and total berry yield, berry size and berry quality were registered for three years. The cultivars differed in earliness, berry size, yield (gram per plant) and total production (sum of all years). A combination of fibre sheet winter and spring coverage and more open net sheet harvest season coverage showed favourable results for overwintering, earliness and berry yield, and enhanced the ripening process in all cultivars.

Net Heterotrophy in the Amazon Continental Shelf Changes Rapidly to a Sink of CO2 in the Outer Amazon Plume

The Amazon continental shelf and adjacent oceanic area were sampled for inorganic and organic carbon parameters in order to improve data coverage and understanding of carbon cycling dynamics within this important region. Seasonal coverage of the Amazon plume on the French Guiana continental shelf further north, was provided by CO2 monitoring using a merchant ship sailing from France to French Guiana (2006-2016). Salinity ranged from 1 to 36 (transects in April 2013, and May 2014). At salinity below 10, strong outgassing was observed with fugacity of CO2 (fCO2) over 2000 atm. This region displayed net heterotrophy, fueled by organic matter with terrestrial origin, as shown by 13C and 15N values of suspended particles. A 13C cross shelf average of -31‰ was measured during May 2014, contrasting with oceanic values in excess of -20‰. The reactivity of this terrestrial material resulted in the local production of dissolved inorganic and organic carbon as well as fluorescent humic compounds. Further offshore, the dilution of freshwater by ocean waters created a sink for CO2, enhanced by biological activity. The strongest CO2 drawdowns, associated with high chlorophyll a concentrations, were observed on the French Guiana continental shelf in the outer Amazon plume, with fCO2 values below 150 uatm. Here, a CO2 sink was present almost throughout the year, with a seasonal maximum of -9.2 mmol CO2 m-2d-1 observed in June 2015. However, both the CO2 and salinity distributions could vary significantly within a few days, confirming the presence of many eddies in this region. The Amazon continental shelf hence behaved as a transition zone between an inshore source of CO2 to the atmosphere and an offshore sink. Some marine phytoplankton production was detected but occurred mainly close to the French Guiana shelf. A mean net CO2 outgassing of 44 ± 43.6 mmol m-2d-1 was estimated for the area. Quantifying the CO2 flux for the entire Amazon shelf area led to a revised annual estimate of the net ocean carbon export of 2.86 1012 mol C from the region.

Retrievals of Lake Ice Thickness From Great Slave Lake and Great Bear Lake Using CryoSat-2

Satellite observations have revealed decreases in the duration of the seasonal snow and ice coverage of Great Slave Lake (GSL) and Great Bear Lake (GBL), large freshwater lakes in Northern Canada. However, limited information is available about ice thickness changes. Here, we present and validate a method to retrieve lake ice thickness using the CryoSat-2 (CS2) radar altimeter. These are the first satellite altimeter retrievals of lake ice thickness. Under optimal conditions, the CS2 signal is scattered from both the snow–ice and the ice–water interfaces, with returns from each interface being of sufficient power to be identified in the radar waveform. The distance between the scattering horizons is used to determine the ice thickness, similar to traditional ground penetrating radar measurements. The seasonal evolution of ice thickness of GBL and GSL is compared with in situ measurements, modeled ice thicknesses, and previous studies. The impact of ice and snow properties on signal penetration and the thickness retrieval are examined with synthetic aperture radar imagery. The CS2 ice thickness retrievals are able to observe the seasonal thickening of the lake ice and closely match the in situ measurements over both lakes ( $R > 0.65$ , $\text {RMSE} m). Thickness retrievals of thin ice are limited by a minimum waveform peak separation of 2 range bins, approximately 0.26 m in ice. Although not designed for lake ice studies, CS2 and future SAR satellite altimeter missions offer new possibilities to monitor the ice and water levels of climatically sensitive and influential lakes.

KRILLBASE: a circumpolar database of Antarctic krill and salp numerical densities, 1926–2016

Abstract. Antarctic krill (Euphausia superba) and salps are major macroplankton contributors to Southern Ocean food webs and krill are also fished commercially. Managing this fishery sustainably, against a backdrop of rapid regional climate change, requires information on distribution and time trends. Many data on the abundance of both taxa have been obtained from net sampling surveys since 1926, but much of this is stored in national archives, sometimes only in notebooks. In order to make these important data accessible we have collated available abundance data (numerical density, no. m−2) of postlarval E. superba and salp individual (multiple species, and whether singly or in chains). These were combined into a central database, KRILLBASE, together with environmental information, standardisation and metadata. The aim is to provide a temporal-spatial data resource to support a variety of research such as biogeochemistry, autecology, higher predator foraging and food web modelling in addition to fisheries management and conservation. Previous versions of KRILLBASE have led to a series of papers since 2004 which illustrate some of the potential uses of this database. With increasing numbers of requests for these data we here provide an updated version of KRILLBASE that contains data from 15 194 net hauls, including 12 758 with krill abundance data and 9726 with salp abundance data. These data were collected by 10 nations and span 56 seasons in two epochs (1926–1939 and 1976–2016). Here, we illustrate the seasonal, inter-annual, regional and depth coverage of sampling, and provide both circumpolar- and regional-scale distribution maps. Krill abundance data have been standardised to accommodate variation in sampling methods, and we have presented these as well as the raw data. Information is provided on how to screen, interpret and use KRILLBASE to reduce artefacts in interpretation, with contact points for the main data providers. The DOI for the published data set is doi:10.5285/8b00a915-94e3-4a04-a903-dd4956346439.

Suivi en quasi-temps réel de la vaccination contre la grippe chez les 65 ans et plus en France à partir des ventes de vaccins en pharmacie

BackgroundThe aim of this study was to describe a tool based on vaccine sales to estimate vaccination coverage against seasonal influenza in near real-time in the French population aged 65 and over. MethodsVaccine sales data available on sale-day +1 came from a stratified sample of 3004 pharmacies in metropolitan France. Vaccination coverage rates were estimated between 2009 and 2014 and compared with those obtained based on vaccination refund data from the general health insurance scheme. ResultsThe seasonal vaccination coverage estimates were highly correlated with those obtained from refund data. They were also slightly higher, which can be explained by the inclusion of non-reimbursed vaccines and the consideration of all individuals aged 65 and over. We have developed an online tool that provides estimates of daily vaccination coverage during each vaccination campaign. ConclusionThe developed tool provides a reliable and near real-time estimation of vaccination coverage among people aged 65 and over. It can be used to evaluate and adjust public health messages.

Intra-annual Variability of CO2 Flux in the Mahanadi Estuary- A Tropical Estuarine System, India

The inorganic carbon dynamics and the CO2 fl ux of estuarine system are strongly infl uenced by the productivity and nutrient regime of water. This study provides full seasonal coverage of assessment of the physicochemical variables of Mahanadi estuary, mainly focusing on the carbonate system through the measurement of pH, Total Alkalinity (TA),

Changes in habitat utilization of slope-spawning flatfish across a bathymetric gradient

AbstractUnderstanding how fish distributions may change in response to environmental variability is important for effective management of fish populations, as predicted climate change will likely alter their habitat use and population dynamics. This research focused on two commercially- and ecologically-important flatfish species in the eastern Bering Sea (EBS), Greenland halibut ( Reinhardtius hippoglossoides ) and Pacific halibut ( Hippoglossus stenolepis ), which may be especially sensitive to climate-induced shifts in habitat due to strong seasonally and ontogenetically variable distributions. We analysed data from fishery-dependent and fishery-independent sources to determine how environmental variability influenced habitat use, thus gaining a uniquely comprehensive range of seasonal and geographic coverage of each species’ distribution. Greenland and Pacific halibut exhibited strong and contrasting responses to changes in temperature on the shelf, with catches decreasing and increasing, respectively, beyond 1 °C. The effect of temperature was not as prominent along the slope, suggesting that slope habitats may provide some insulation from shelf-associated environmental variability, particularly for Greenland halibut. With warming, Greenland halibut exhibited more of a bathymetric shift in distribution, while the shift was more latitudinal for Pacific halibut. Our results suggest that habitat partitioning may, in part, explain differences in Greenland and Pacific halibut distributions. This research adds to our understanding of how the distributions of two fish species at opposite extremes of their ranges in the EBS – Greenland halibut at the southernmost edge and Pacific halibut at the northernmost edge – may shift in relation to a changing ocean environment.

Seasonal shifts in the vertical distribution of fish in a shallow coastal area

Abstract Depth structures aquatic habitats, creating substantial differences in the species composition of underwater communities even at small intervals. Those communities also undergo considerable cyclic variation annually. In this study, we surveyed variation in the vertical distribution of fish in a shallow (20 m) coastal basin in the northern Baltic Sea during the ice-free period from May to October. The waters were strongly mixed throughout the season and only transient signs of stratification were observed. As production shifted towards higher trophic levels over summer, with sequential biomass peaks in zooplankton and juvenile fish, the vertical distribution of the entire fish assemblage became increasingly even. The results suggest that spatial resource partitioning can be strongly correlated with seasonal productivity cycles even in physically uniform environments with high connectivity. Further, the results stress the importance of sampling design (seasonal and vertical coverage) of fish studies in shallow coastal areas.

Variability of snow line elevation, snow cover area and depletion in the main Slovak basins in winters 2001–2014

Abstract Spatial and temporal variability of snow line (SL) elevation, snow cover area (SCA) and depletion (SCD) in winters 2001–2014 is investigated in ten main Slovak river basins (the Western Carpathians). Daily satellite snow cover maps from MODIS Terra (MOD10A1, V005) and Aqua (MYD10A1, V005) with resolution 500 m are used. The results indicate three groups of basins with similar variability in the SL elevation. The first includes basins with maximum elevations above 1500 m a.s.l. (Poprad, Upper Váh, Hron, Hornád). Winter median SL is equal or close to minimum basin elevation in snow rich winters in these basins. Even in snow poor winters is SL close to the basin mean. Second group consists of mid-altitude basins with maximum elevation around 1000 m a.s.l. (Slaná, Ipeľ, Nitra, Bodrog). Median SL varies between 150 and 550 m a.s.l. in January and February, which represents approximately 40–80% snow coverage. Median SL is near the maximum basin elevation during the snow poor winters. This means that basins are in such winters snow free approximately 50% of days in January and February. The third group includes the Rudava/Myjava and Lower Váh/Danube. These basins have their maximum altitude less than 700 m a.s.l. and only a small part of these basins is covered with snow even during the snow rich winters. The evaluation of SCA shows that snow cover typically starts in December and last to February. In the highest basins (Poprad, Upper Váh), the snow season sometimes tends to start earlier (November) and lasts to March/April. The median of SCA is, however, less than 10% in these months. The median SCA of entire winter season is above 70% in the highest basins (Poprad, Upper Váh, Hron), ranges between 30–60% in the mid-altitude basins (Hornád, Slaná, Ipeľ, Nitra, Bodrog) and is less than 1% in the Myjava/Rudava and Lower Váh/Danube basins. However, there is a considerable variability in seasonal coverage between the years. Our results indicate that there is no significant trend in mean SCA in the period 2001–2014, but periods with larger and smaller SCA exist. Winters in the period 2002–2006 have noticeably larger mean SCA than those in the period 2007–2012. Snow depletion curves (SDC) do not have a simple evolution in most winters. The snowmelt tends to start between early February and the end of March. The snowmelt lasts between 8 and 15 days on average in lowland and high mountain basins, respectively. Interestingly, the variability in SDC between the winters is much larger than between the basins.

Physical processes contributing to an ice free Beaufort Sea during September 2012

AbstractDuring the record September 2012 sea ice minimum, the Beaufort Sea became ice free for the first time during the observational record. Increased dynamic activity during late winter enabled increased open water and seasonal ice coverage that contributed to negative sea ice anomalies and positive solar absorption anomalies which drove rapid bottom melt and sea ice loss. As had happened in the Beaufort Sea during previous years of exceptionally low September sea ice extent, anomalous solar absorption developed during May, increased during June, peaked during July, and persisted into October. However in situ observations from a single floe reveal less than 78% of the energy required for bottom melt during 2012 was available from solar absorption. We show that the 2012 sea ice minimum in the Beaufort was the result of anomalously large solar absorption that was compounded by an arctic cyclone and other sources of heat such as solar transmission, oceanic upwelling, and riverine inputs, but was ultimately made possible through years of preconditioning toward a younger, thinner ice pack. Significant negative trends in sea ice concentration between 1979 and 2012 from June to October, coupled with a tendency toward earlier sea ice reductions have fostered a significant trend of +12.9 MJ m−2 yr−1 in cumulative solar absorption, sufficient to melt an additional 4.3 cm m−2 yr−1. Overall through preconditioning toward a younger, thinner ice pack the Beaufort Sea has become increasingly susceptible to increased sea ice loss that may render it ice free more frequently in coming years.

Evaluation of Influenza Vaccination Efficacy: A Universal Epidemic Model

By means of a designed epidemic model, we evaluated the influence of seasonal vaccination coverage as well as a potential universal vaccine with differing efficacy on the aftermath of seasonal and pandemic influenza. The results of the modeling enabled us to conclude that, to control a seasonal influenza epidemic with a reproduction coefficient R 0 ≤ 1.5, a 35% vaccination coverage with the current seasonal influenza vaccine formulation is sufficient, provided that other epidemiology measures are regularly implemented. Increasing R 0 level of pandemic strains will obviously require stronger intervention. In addition, seasonal influenza vaccines fail to confer protection against antigenically distinct pandemic influenza strains. Therefore, the necessity of a universal influenza vaccine is clear. The model predicts that a potential universal vaccine will be able to provide sufficient reliable (90%) protection against pandemic influenza only if its efficacy is comparable with the effectiveness of modern vaccines against seasonal influenza strains (70%–80%); given that at least 40% of the population has been vaccinated in advance, ill individuals have been isolated (observed), and a quarantine has been introduced. If other antiepidemic measures are absent, a vaccination coverage of at least 80% is required.