Peak Of Season Research Articles

Climate effect on the seasonal gonad maturity of three commercial penaeid shrimp species in the Gulf of California

Penaeid shrimp represents one of the most economically important fisheries worldwide. In Mexico, they comprise a sequential multispecies fishery with highly variable seasonal and interannual production, presenting its maximum national yield in the Gulf of California (GC) by exploiting the species Litopenaues vannamei, L. stylirostris, and Farfantepenaues californiensis. The yield variability can be related to their reproductive climatic adaptability, measured by the Mexican Fisheries Bureau as the intra and inter-seasonal percentage of mature females (%MF). Currently, shrimp fishery management in Mexico does not explicitly consider the environmental effect within the exploitation strategies for each species, although climatic factors significantly affect this fishery. For this reason, the present study aims to determine a function to estimate the monthly %MF for each commercial penaeid species considering climatic fluctuations. For this objective, the monthly relationship of %MF for each species over 15 years (2001-2015) with the seasonal cycle of the sea surface temperature anomalies (1950-2020) were analyzed and classified by intensity scenarios (normal, warm & cold) in the southern GC, fitting a logistic function based on monthly SST differentials and SST time lags per species. As a result, the model was able to explain 40 to 60% of the %MF variation per species (p<0.001), defining the natural seasonal peaks in the summer and declining towards the winter. Under the climate scenarios, the weak-cold anomalies resulted in the maximum %MF (up to +142% in F. californiensis). Conversely, a minimum %MF (-50%) for the three species resulted from moderate to strong warming anomalies. The %MF of the species with the most tropical affinity (L. vannamei and F. californiensis) were the least vulnerable under weak-warm anomalies, while the more temperate species was the most sensible (L. stylirostris). The model significantly predicted the seasonality of %MF per species and suggests an inverse relationship with SST anomalies, which may have important implications for resource management under climate change and may support the improvement of stock assessment.

Changes in Equatorial Kelvin Wave Activity in the Upper Troposphere and Lower Stratosphere Associated with Interannual Variability of the Upper-Tropospheric Equatorial Zonal Wind

Abstract We investigate the influence of the background wind regime on interannual variability in equatorial Kelvin waves (including both freely propagating ones and convectively coupled ones) in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere using the ERA5 reanalysis data. We focus on variability in the number of Kelvin wave cases as a function of the background westerly wind that controls wave propagation, given by the zonal wind index (ZWI) in the equatorial eastern Pacific that is a measure of the strength of the upper branch of the Walker circulation in the Western Hemisphere. The ZWI correlates well with sea surface temperature in the Niño-3.4 region, though one-third of the peaks of negative ZWI (weak westerly) cases occur during seasons other than December–February which is the typical El Niño season. In the positive ZWI (stronger westerly) cases, both the convective activity over the western Pacific and the extratropical Rossby wave activity over the central and eastern Pacific are enhanced. Kelvin waves over the Western Hemisphere appear frequently at 200 hPa but barely reach 100 hPa due to the strong westerly wind below this level that prohibits upward wave propagation. In the negative ZWI period, the number of Kelvin wave cases at 200 hPa decreases due to weaker convection; Kelvin waves reach 100 hPa and propagate even further upward into the stratosphere. The increasing (decreasing) tendency of Kelvin waves already starts 6 months before the weakest (strongest) westerly wind month in the Western Hemisphere (i.e., the ENSO peak seasons). Significance Statement Equatorial Kelvin waves play a critical role in the upward transport of momentum driving the equatorial stratospheric circulation. Our results reveal that background winds in the upper troposphere and the lower stratosphere act as a filter for equatorial Kelvin waves, regulating the number of their packets propagating upward. An investigation of the role of Kelvin wave dissipation in the westerly duct region, i.e., in the upper troposphere over the equatorial eastern Pacific, is needed.

P-1210. Resurgence of Parechovirus-A3 Infection in Neonates and Young Infants after the Coronavirus Disease 2019 Pandemic in Japan

Abstract Background Parechovirus-A (PeV-A), especially PeV-A3, is a common cause of viral sepsis and encephalitis in neonates and young infants (age &amp;lt; 4 months). The strict infection control measures and non-pharmaceutical interventions of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic affected the epidemiological profiles of community-acquired diseases. However, the effects of the pandemic on the epidemiology of PeV-A infection in this age group are unknown. Methods This prospective multicenter observational study was conducted between 2019 and 2023 in 12 Japanese prefectures. Neonates and young infants hospitalized for suspected sepsis and/or meningoencephalitis were included. Samples were sent to the laboratory of Niigata University, and PeV-A was detected by real-time PCR. The 7 hospitals introduced the BioFire Filmarray meningitis/encephalitis (FA/ME) panel in 2020. Genotype was determined by direct sequencing and BLAST analysis, and the phylogenetic tree of viral protein 1 region of PeV-A3 was constructed. Results 131 patients with PeV-A infection were identified (n = 36 in 2019, n = 7 in 2020, n = 1 in 2021, n = 27 in 2022, and n = 60 in 2023). Genotype was PeV-A3 in 124 cases and PeV-A4 in 2 cases in 2022 and unknown in 5 cases in 2019. Seasonal peaks and other characteristics were similar before and after the COVID-19 pandemic (i.e., in 2019 vs. 2023). Body temperature, fever duration, and the proportion of patients with rash declined; however, the proportion of those with abdominal distention increased. The FA/ME panel was more frequently used after the start of the pandemic (3.2% vs. 53.3%, P &amp;lt; 0.001). The proportion of those with sepsis declined from 83.9% to 63.3% (P = 0.04), but the proportions of those with encephalitis and those requiring ICU admission were similar. No patient had sequelae at discharge. PeV-A3 has evolved within a single clade with two branches. Conclusion The number of PeV-A3 infections was higher after the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, possibly because low PeV-A3 activity early in the pandemic increased the number of susceptible pregnant women, thus leading to a decline in maternally derived antibodies. In addition, use of the FA/ME panel might help detect mild cases. Disclosures All Authors: No reported disclosures

P-702. Epidemiology of Respiratory Pathogens and the Impact of Seasonality, Patient Demographics, and Diagnostic Testing Approach: A Retrospective Analysis from 2022 to 2023

Abstract Background Respiratory tract infections (RTIs) are a significant concern for public health due to their widespread transmission and high rates of illness and death reported globally. The use of multiplex molecular methods has allowed for the detection of a broad range of respiratory viruses and their subtypes, as well as some bacteria. This study investigates the epidemiology of respiratory pathogens detected in different demographic populations, emphasizing the importance of a flexible diagnostic testing approach to adapt to the complex dynamics of respiratory pathogens during the peak season. Distribution Rates of Respiratory Targets in Young, Adult, and Elderly Patients (n=1,520) Analysis of distribution rates of 19 respiratory targets during the respiratory season of 2022-2023, stratified by age. Methods During the 2022-23 respiratory disease season, the Diasorin LIAISON PLEX® Respiratory Flex Assay was used to prospectively test 1,520 patients across six clinical sites in the United States. As part of an observational study, retrospective analyses were conducted to compare the detection rates and frequencies of 19 respiratory targets (14 viral and 5 bacterial targets). The results were stratified by age. Results Many respiratory pathogens displayed age- and season-specific patterns. Enterovirus/rhinovirus was detected more frequently in patients &amp;lt; 21 years old (27%) than in the adult group (14%) and elderly group (9%), p&amp;lt; 0.01. Flu A prevalence was found to be higher in adults (21-65 y) at 25% and 33% in the elderly ( &amp;gt;65 y) population, p≤0.05. Individuals &amp;lt; 21 years had a lower incidence of SARS-CoV-2 (8%) compared to adults (35%) and the elderly (40%), p&amp;lt; 0.001. The most common viruses found in all three populations were flu A, human coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, and flu A-H1, while the other pathogens were more population-specific. Conclusion The results of the study offer valuable insights into the complex dynamics of respiratory pathogens. They emphasize the importance of flexible multiplex PCR testing strategies that consider the different circulating patterns of these pathogens across different populations. This approach can help customize respiratory testing based on factors such as seasonality, patient demographics, and acceptable costs, and in line with diagnostic stewardship, adapt testing protocols to meet the specific needs of respiratory testing. Disclosures All Authors: No reported disclosures

P-2366. Influenza-Specific Antiviral Use in Hospitalized Children Before and During the COVID-19 Pandemic, New Vaccine Surveillance Network (2016–2023)

Abstract Background Influenza-specific antivirals are recommended for all hospitalized children with suspected or confirmed influenza. However, antiviral use remains suboptimal. We investigated antiviral use in children hospitalized with influenza before the COVID-19 pandemic and during the late pandemic period, as well as factors associated with antiviral use. Methods We conducted active surveillance on children &amp;lt; 18 years old with acute respiratory illness at seven pediatric centers in the New Vaccine Surveillance Network before the COVID-19 pandemic (12/01/2016–03/31/2020) and during the late pandemic period (07/01/2021–03/31/2023). We included children hospitalized within 10 days of symptom onset who tested positive for influenza A or B viruses by clinical or research testing. We used mixed-effects Poisson regression to compare incidence proportions of antiviral use in the 2021–22 and 2022–23 seasons to before the pandemic. In addition, we fit a mixed-effects logistic regression model with the study site as a random effect to determine factors associated with antiviral use during the late pandemic period. Results Among 1,549 children hospitalized with influenza, antiviral use ranged between 48.3% and 57.0% pre-pandemic but declined to 38.1% in 2021–22 and 45.7% in 2022–23 (Table 1; Figure 1). Influenza-specific antiviral use was estimated to be 31% lower in 2021–22 (p=0.064) and 20% lower in 2022–23 (p&amp;lt; 0.001) compared to the pre-pandemic period (Table 2), despite an increase in clinical testing. During the late pandemic, factors associated with higher odds of antiviral use included an underlying medical condition, influenza vaccination, clinical influenza testing, intensive care unit (ICU) admission, admission during the peak of influenza season, and some study sites (Figure 2).Figure 1.Children hospitalized within 10 days of onset of fever or a respiratory symptom who were positive for influenza A or B by clinical or research testing, disaggregated by clinical testing status, New Vaccine Surveillance Network (12/01/2016–03/31/2023; N=1,545). (A) Absolute frequencies of children hospitalized during each time period. (B) Relative frequency of antiviral use among all these children. Conclusion Influenza-specific antiviral use in hospitalized children remained suboptimal, with a significant decline during the late COVID-19 pandemic. Our study highlights the need for enhanced efforts to improve antiviral use in this population at increased risk of severe influenza illness. Multiple factors were associated with antiviral use, underscoring the importance of considering these factors when developing interventions to optimize pediatric influenza management.Figure 2.Factors associated with antiviral use among children hospitalized with influenza during the late COVID-19 pandemic period (07/01/2021–03/31/2023) in the New Vaccine Surveillance Network. All results are from a single generalized linear mixed-effects model with the study site as a random effect. Red denotes lower odds of antiviral use, and green denotes higher odds of antiviral use. Abbreviations: aOR, adjusted odds ratio; CI, confidence interval. Disclosures James W. Antoon, MD, PhD, MPH, AstraZeneca: Advisor/Consultant|NIH: Grant/Research Support Janet A. Englund, MD, Abbvie: Advisor/Consultant|AstraZeneca: Advisor/Consultant|AstraZeneca: Grant/Research Support|GlaxoSmithKline: Advisor/Consultant|GlaxoSmithKline: Grant/Research Support|Meissa Vaccines: Advisor/Consultant|Merck: Advisor/Consultant|Pfizer: Board Member|Pfizer: Grant/Research Support|Pfizer: Speaker at meeting|SanofiPasteur: Advisor/Consultant|Shinogi: Advisor/Consultant Geoffrey A. Weinberg, MD, Inhalon: Advisor/Consultant|Merck &amp; Company: Honoraria for textbook chapter preparation Mary A. Staat, MD, MPH, Cepheid: Grant/Research Support|Merck: Grant/Research Support|Pfizer: Grant/Research Support|Up-To-Date: Honoraria Elizabeth P. Schlaudecker, MD, MPH, Pfizer: Grant/Research Support|Sanofi Pasteur: Advisor/Consultant Rangaraj Selvarangan, BVSc, PhD, D(ABMM), FIDSA, FAAM, Abbott: Grant/Research Support|Abbott: Honoraria|BioMerieux: Grant/Research Support|Cepheid: Grant/Research Support|Diasorin: Grant/Research Support|GSK: Advisor/Consultant|Hologic: Grant/Research Support|Luminex: Grant/Research Support|Qiagen: Grant/Research Support Christopher J. Harrison, MD, GSK: Grant/Research Support|Medscape: Honoraria|Merck: Grant/Research Support|Pfizer: Grant/Research Support|UpToDate: Honoraria James Chappell, MD, PhD, Merck: Grant/Research Support Natasha B. Halasa, MD, MPH, Merck: Grant/Research Support

P-1193. Epidemiology of Respiratory Syncytial Virus in Young, Hospitalized Children in Jordan: A Prospective Viral Surveillance Study

Abstract Background Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a leading cause of acute respiratory infections in young children worldwide. With the recent wave of regulatory approvals and authorizations for nirsevimab and maternal RSV vaccines across several countries, understanding the current burden and seasonality of RSV is crucial for implementing effective preventive strategies globally. We aimed to determine the burden, seasonality, and co-detections of RSV in hospitalized children &amp;lt; 2 years old in Amman, Jordan.Figure 1.Monthly proportion of respiratory syncytial virus detections among children &amp;lt;2 years old hospitalized at Al-Bashir Hospital with fever or respiratory symptoms (N=5,922), described by (A) season and disaggregated by (B) co-detection status. Methods We analyzed data from four prospective viral surveillance studies conducted at Al-Bashir Hospital collected during 2007, 2010–2013, 2020, and 2023–2024. We included children under 2 years old hospitalized with fever or respiratory symptoms who had a nasal or throat sample tested in the research laboratory for RSV and other common respiratory viruses using real-time polymerase chain reaction. Demographic and clinical data were collected through parental interviews and medical chart abstractions. Results Among 5,922 children, 2,540 (42.9%) tested positive for RSV. The median age of children with RSV among this age-restricted cohort was 3.2 months (IQR, 1.6–6.8), and males represented 57.6% (n=1,463). RSV circulation showed seasonal peaks during winter months (Figure 1), with the highest proportions observed in January 2011 (90.1%), 2024 (87.9%), and 2013 (85.8%). The burden and seasonality of RSV during the 2023–2024 season appeared to normalize compared with the disrupted pattern observed in the preceding season. Co-detection of RSV with other respiratory viruses was observed in 41.5% of RSV-positive cases (Table 1), with the most common co-detected virus being human rhinovirus/enterovirus (22.4%), followed by adenovirus (5.0%). Conclusion Our findings highlight the substantial burden of RSV among hospitalized young children in Amman, Jordan, and provide valuable insights into the current seasonality of RSV in a resource-limited setting. The normalizing circulation pattern has important implications for the timing and implementation of preventive strategies. The high proportion of RSV co-detections underscores the need for further research to elucidate the clinical significance of respiratory viral co-detection. Disclosures James Chappell, MD, PhD, Merck: Grant/Research Support Natasha B. Halasa, MD, MPH, Merck: Grant/Research Support

425. Revealing Seasonal Patterns in the Post-Pandemic Era: A Comparative Analysis of Burden and Seasonality of Influenza and COVID-19 in Europe and the US

Abstract Background The emergence of SARS-CoV-2 has profoundly impacted global healthcare systems, raising concerns about its interaction with seasonal influenza and the appropriateness of concomitant vaccination campaigns. This study aims to compare the burden and timing of COVID-19 and influenza-associated hospitalizations during the post-pandemic period.Figure 1:Evolution of Influenza and Covid-19 activity by season over 2022-2023 and 2023-2024 Methods We retrospectively analyzed laboratory-confirmed hospitalization data from sentinel surveillance systems for influenza and COVID-19 across two seasons (2022-2023 to 2023-2024) in England, the US, and four European countries (France, Germany, Italy, Spain). We examined absolute hospitalization numbers in the EU, weekly rates in England, and both rates and numbers in the US to identify seasonal peaks and describe epidemiological trends. Annual cumulative number of laboratory-confirmed hospitalizations in Germany, Spain and US by season (annual period defined as epi week 27 – epi week 26) Results Peak laboratory-confirmed hospitalizations in EU countries for COVID were higher than for influenza, ranging from 0 to 1,427 per week and 0 to 366 per week, respectively. Similarly in the US, hospitalizations for COVID-19 and influenza varied from 44,760 to 319,445 and 3,301 to 172,784, respectively. England had higher peak weekly rates for both influenza (18.1 per 100,000) and COVID (18.3 per 100,000) compared to the US (7.4 per 100,000 for influenza and 13.7 per 100,000 for COVID). Across the EU, England, and the US, peak influenza activity occurred between Week 47 and Week 6 in both 2022-2023 and 2023-2024 seasons. While COVID-19 activity peaked alongside influenza, activity remained high beyond the winter seasons. Annual cumulative hospitalizations for COVID-19 were 4, 5, and 12 times higher than influenza in the US, Germany, and Spain, respectively. Cumulative hospitalizations for other countries were not assessed due to missing data. Conclusion COVID-19 and influenza continue to pose a significant burden on healthcare systems. While differing testing practices between viruses and between countries introduces limitations to this analysis, our findings confirm that COVID-19 circulation is not restricted to winter seasonality, and surveillance and prevention measures should be reinforced year-round. Further research is also required to properly inform the validity of concomitant vaccination policy. Disclosures Nabila Shaikh, MSc, Sanofi: Stocks/Bonds (Public Company) Robertus van Aalst, PhD, MSc, Sanofi: Employee|Sanofi: Stocks/Bonds (Public Company) Rebecca C Harris, MBioch, MSc, PhD, Sanofi vaccines: Stocks/Bonds (Private Company) Clotilde El Guerche-Séblain, PhD, Sanofi vaccines: Stocks/Bonds (Private Company)

Patterns of febrile seizures: analysing seasonal, diurnal and socioeconomic correlations in Bangladesh

Background: Febrile seizures (FS) are a common neurological disorder in children, often triggered by fever without evidence of central nervous system infections. This study explores the demographic, seasonal, diurnal and socioeconomic patterns of febrile seizures among children in Bangladesh. Methods: A cross-sectional study was conducted on 298 children aged 5 months to 5 years admitted with febrile seizures at a tertiary care hospital. Data were collected on demographic characteristics, comorbidities, seizure patterns and socioeconomic status and analyzed using descriptive statistics. Results: The majority of febrile seizures occurred in children aged 13–18 months (35.57%) with a male predominance (72.48%). Seizures were brief, with 50.34% lasting≤1 minute and most occurred within 6 hours of fever onset (51.01%). Diurnal variation showed the highest incidence between noon and evening (51.68%). A bimodal seasonal distribution was observed, with peaks in January (12.08%) and July (11.07%). Bronchiolitis (37.92%) and diarrhea (27.18%) were the most common comorbidities. Firstborn children (86.58%) and those with normal nutritional status (93.29%) were predominantly affected. Conclusions: Febrile seizures in the study population showed distinct demographic, temporal and socioeconomic patterns, aligning with global trends. The findings underscore the importance of early fever management, targeted interventions during seasonal peaks and caregiver education to reduce seizure-related morbidity.

The Seasonality of Retinal Detachment: Peaks, Troughs, and Global Trends

Purpose: To examine the seasonality of retinal detachment (RD) and explore global patterns and contributing factors through a narrative review. Methods: Studies investigating seasonal trends in RD incidence across diverse regions were analysed for peak seasons, meteorological influences, and behavioural factors. Results: RD seasonality varies by region. Northern climates (e.g., Finland) report summer peaks linked to prolonged daylight, while warmer climates (e.g., Kuwait) show winter peaks associated with outdoor activity. Some studies found correlations with temperature, light, and atmospheric pressure, while others reported no seasonal variation. Conclusions: RD seasonality reflects a complex interplay of environmental and behavioural factors. Future research should focus on standardised methodologies to clarify these relationships and inform preventative strategies.

The Impact of Age Differences and Injury Severity on Pedestrian Traffic Crashes: An Analysis of Clinical Characteristics and Outcomes

Background/Objectives: The incidence of pedestrian traffic injuries is an escalating concern for public health worldwide. Particularly in fast-developing nations, such as Saudi Arabia, these injuries form a significant portion of trauma-related healthcare challenges. This study aims to explore age-specific differences in trends, seasonal variations, and the overall impact of pedestrian traffic injuries in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, with a focus on injury characteristics and clinical outcomes. Methods: The study conducted a retrospective analysis using data from the Saudi Trauma Registry (STAR) covering the period between August 2017 and December 2022. It employed descriptive statistics, chi-square tests, and multivariable linear regression analyses to explore demographic trends, characteristics of injuries, and hospital-based outcomes. Results: This study analyzed data from 1062 pedestrian injury cases, revealing key demographic and clinical patterns. Most incidents occurred on weekdays (71.9%) and during nighttime hours (63.3%), with seasonal peaks observed from April to June (30.4%). The lower extremities (27.5%) and head (21.3%) were the most frequently injured body regions. ICU admissions were more common among individuals aged 30–40, females, and those with head or chest trauma, while higher in-hospital mortality was associated with patients over 60 years old, transport by private or police vehicles, and extended ICU and hospital stays. Approximately 25.6% of cases required ICU care, with an overall in-hospital mortality rate of 4.9%. Conclusions: This study provides an in-depth analysis of pedestrian traffic injuries treated at a trauma center in Riyadh, highlighting significant demographic, temporal, and clinical patterns. Understanding these trends is essential for optimizing resource allocation and improving emergency care outcomes. Furthermore, the identified age-specific risk factors and seasonal variations underscore the critical need for targeted interventions and policy enhancements to improve road safety and reduce the burden of pedestrian injuries.

Impact of COVID-19 pandemic measures on hospitalizations and epidemiological patterns of twelve respiratory pathogens in children with acute respiratory infections in southern China

ObjectivesTo investigate the impact of COVID-19 pandemic measures on hospitalizations and the alterations and persistence of the epidemiological patterns of 12 common respiratory pathogens in children during the COVID-19 pandemic and after the cessation of the “zero-COVID-19” policy in southern China.MethodsRespiratory specimens were collected from hospitalized children with acute respiratory infections at Shenzhen Children’s Hospital from January 2020 to June 2024. Twelve common respiratory pathogens were detected using multiplex PCR. Data on demographic characteristics, pathogen detection rates, epidemiological patterns, co-infections, and ICU admission rates were compared between the ‘during COVID-19’ period (Phase 1: January 2020 to December 2022) and the ‘post COVID-19’ period (Phase 2: January 2023 to June 2024).ResultsIn Phase 2, there was a significant increase in average annual cases, with a higher median age of affected children, higher pathogen detection rates, and increased co-infection rates compared to Phase 1. The epidemiological patterns of most pathogens were altered by the COVID-19 pandemic. Human Parainfluenza Virus, Human Metapneumovirus, Human Bocavirus (HBOV), and Human Coronavirus remained active during Phase 1, while Mycoplasma pneumoniae (Mp) and Adenovirus (ADV) were low, and Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) lacked a seasonal peak in 2022. In Phase 2, Mp, ADV, and RSV experienced outbreaks, with Mp’s high prevalence continuing into 2024. RSV showed out-of-season epidemics for two consecutive years. Influenza A (H1N1), Influenza A (H3N2), and InfB lost their seasonal patterns during Phase 1 but reemerged and regained their seasonal characteristics in 2023–2024. ICU admission rates did not significantly differ between the two phases, except for HBOV, which had higher rates in Phase 2.ConclusionThe epidemiological patterns of various respiratory pathogens were affected by the COVID-19 pandemic to varying degrees. Pathogens suppressed during the pandemic experienced outbreaks or out-of-season epidemics after the lifting of non-pharmaceutical interventions, with Mp and RSV continuing into the second year and HBOV associated ICU admission rates increasing in the post-pandemic era. Continuous monitoring of these patterns is essential to understand the duration of these effects and to inform effective response strategies.

Subacute thyroiditis - Is it really linked to viral infection? Retrospective hospital patient registry study.

Subacute thyroiditis (SAT) is a painful inflammatory disorder of the thyroid gland, which - after a phase of thyrotoxicosis - leads to transient, or less frequently permanent hypothyroidism. Apart from a strong association with specific HLA alleles, the causes are uncertain. Viral disease has been hypothesised as a trigger, with Enteroviruses, namely Echoviruses and Coxsackieviruses, showing a seasonal distribution that coincides with the incidence of SAT. In the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic, strict hygiene measures led to a sharp decline in infections and thus offered the opportunity to test this hypothesis. We analysed national registry data of hospitalised patients from Germany during the years 2015 to 2022 (Federal statistical Office (Destatis), Wiesbaden, Germany) and surveillance data on infectious diseases from the same years (clinical-virology.net and RKI). Statistical analysis includes modelling of seasonality by month, polynomial autoregression and Granger causality to assess dependency of future SAT frequencies from past ones, and association of virus incidence to SAT frequency, respectively. Our study confirms previously described epidemiological findings with higher incidence in females and a seasonal peak in late summer coinciding with the seasonality of enteroviruses until 2019. In 2020, the pattern remained unchanged, except for the marked reduction of enteroviruses and other pathogens (except SARS-CoV-2) due to hygienic measures. Moreover, the SAT seasonality in the years 2021 and 2022 was apparently unaltered through the COVID-19 pandemic. Our study provides strong evidence that despite their seasonal pattern, Echoviruses and Coxsackieviruses are not the cause of SAT. Moreover, no other analysed virus (including Influenza A and B, Parainfluenza, Rhinovirus, Human Coronaviruses including SARS-CoV-2) showed any association.

Comparison between the Serological and Molecular Methods for the Detection of Helicobacter pylori

Background: Helicobacter pylori (H. pylori) infection is a worldwide health issue associated with chronic gastritis, stomach ulcers, and neoplasms. Management requires an accurate diagnosis, and the currently available technologies can be divided into molecular and serological approaches. Every approach has advantages and disadvantages, highlighting the importance of comparing. Objectives: This study aimed to evaluate the diagnostic efficiency, reliability, and usefulness of serological and molecular methods for detecting H. pylori infection. Methods: In 2023, a cross-sectional study was performed in Wasit Province, Iraq. Five hundred forty-one volunteers aged 15 to 65 years showing dyspeptic symptoms submitted blood samples for analysis. Serological testing utilized ELISA to identify IgG and IgM antibodies, whereas PCR was performed for the molecular detection of H. pylori DNA. Data were analyzed to assess sensitivity, specificity, and demographic correlations. The prevalence of seasonal swings was also evaluated. Results: The frequency of H. pylori was nearly the same across males (270) and females (271). The most considerable prevalence was observed in the 26–35 age group, with seasonal peaks during the summer, especially in July. PCR had superior sensitivity and specificity relative to serology, although it required advanced resources. Serological tests offered significant epidemiological findings, although they could not differentiate between active and past infectious diseases. Conclusion: Serological tests are useful for epidemiological investigations, but molecular methods are more accurate. A combined diagnostic strategy improves clinical and public health measures, especially in resource-limited regions. Seasonal and demographic changes require specific measures.

Analysis of the Seasonal Distribution Characteristics of Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease in a Southern China

Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) is a common infectious disease affecting children, particularly prevalent in Asian countries. In a city in southern China, the annual number of HFMD cases exceeds 40,000, yet this data has not been thoroughly analyzed to date. The Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention collected data on HFMD cases in this southern city from 2014 to 2019, with cases recorded on a monthly basis. We aimed to analyze the seasonal distribution characteristics of HFMD in the city using two methods: the Concentration Method and the Seasonal Index Method. The study aims to fill the existing data gap and provide insights for developing effective prevention and control strategies. Over the six-year period from 2014 to 2019, a total of 187,887 cases of HFMD were reported in the province. The average annual incidence rate was 48.94 per 100,000 population. The concentration ratio (M) was calculated to be 0.335, with annual M values ranging from 0.151 to 0.554, indicating a significant degree of seasonality in the incidence of HFMD. The seasonal index (C) exceeded 100% from April to July, peaking in June at 228.418%, which suggests that the epidemic season for HFMD in this city is from April to July. Given the distinct seasonal characteristics of HFMD in the southern city, it is imperative that prevention and control measures are implemented in advance of the peak season. Concurrently, robust surveillance and early warning systems should be maintained to mitigate the spread of HFMD and prevent outbreaks.

Klasterisasi Pemilihan Paket Umrah Berdasarkan Musim untuk Menentukan Strategi Promosi Menggunakan Algoritma K-Means

This research aims to classify Umrah package selection based on season using the K-Means algorithm, which is expected to help PT Pradana Grassindo Travel in determining more effective promotional strategies. The background to the problem includes problems in managing airline ticket prices and accommodation availability during the peak season, as well as extreme weather conditions in Saudi Arabia. The research method involved collecting primary data through interviews and literature study, the data obtained amounted to 149 data, which was then processed using the K-Means clustering method and using Microsoft Excel and RapidMiner software. The analysis results show that the K-Means algorithm is able to group pilgrim data into two clusters based on departure season, namely Summer and Winter. This research provides a significant contribution in improving promotional strategies and services for Umrah pilgrims.

Explainable machine learning for modeling of net ecosystem exchange in boreal forests

Abstract. There is a growing interest in applying machine learning methods to predict net ecosystem exchange (NEE) based on site information and climatic variables. We apply four machine learning models (cubist, random forest, averaged neural networks, and linear regression) to predict the NEE of boreal forest ecosystems based on climatic and site variables. We use data sets from two stations in the Finnish boreal forest (southern site Hyytiälä and northern site Värriö) and model NEE during the peak growing season and the whole year. For Hyytiälä, all nonlinear models demonstrated similar results with R2 = 0.88 for the peak growing season and R2 = 0.90 for the whole year. For Värriö, nonlinear models gave R2 = 0.73–0.76 for the peak growing season, whereas random forest and cubist with R2 = 0.74 were somewhat better than averaged neural networks with R2 = 0.70 for the whole year. Using explainable artificial intelligence methods, we show that the most important input variables during the peak season are photosynthetically active radiation, diffuse radiation, and vapor pressure deficit (or air temperature), whereas, on the whole-year scale, vapor pressure deficit (or air temperature) is replaced by soil temperature. When the data sets from both stations were mixed, soil water content, the only variable clearly different between Hyytiälä and Värriö data sets, emerged as one of the most important variables, but its importance diminished when input variables labeling sites were added. In addition, we analyze the dependencies of NEE on input variables against the existing theoretical understanding of NEE drivers. We show that even though the statistical scores of some models can be very good, the results should be treated with caution, especially when applied to upscaling. In the model setup with several interdependent variables ubiquitous in atmospheric measurements, some models display strong opposite dependencies on these variables. This behavior might have adverse consequences if models are applied to the data sets in future climate conditions. Our results highlight the importance of explainable artificial intelligence methods for interpreting outcomes from machine learning models, particularly when a set containing interdependent variables is used as a model input.

Circulation of Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) in Poland Between Seasons of 2009/2010 and 2022/2023 Based on SENTINEL System.

Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) is a prevalent pathogen of the respiratory tract, posing a significant threat to individuals with compromised immune systems, particularly the elderly and neonates in hospital settings. The primary objective of this study was to identify a specific period within the epidemic season during which healthcare providers can anticipate an increased incidence of RSV infections and characterize the epidemic season in Poland. Molecular biology techniques were employed to diagnose samples at Sanitary Stations and the National Institute of Public Health (NIC) in Warsaw. Epidemiological data were collected using the SENTINEL surveillance system. In the 2020/2021 season, there were no reported cases of RSV due to the prioritization of SARS-CoV-2 diagnostics. Before the pandemic, the period of heightened RSV infection risk typically commenced in the 51st week or later, with a statistically significant correlation indicating that a later start was associated with a shorter season duration (p = 0.034). In post-pandemic seasons, the temporal distribution of RSV cases exhibited a notable shift, with earlier season onset, peak, and conclusion. Data indicate that RSV is predominantly diagnosed in pediatric populations; however, since the 2017/2018 season, there has been an increase in RSV diagnoses among other age groups. Given the observed shifts in the seasonal peak following the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, ongoing surveillance is required to ascertain whether these changes are permanent or transient.

Effects of Climatic, Chemical, and Cultural Control Strategies on Community Composition of Auchenorrhyncha and Population Dynamics of Two Major Green Leafhopper Pests in Peach Orchards

A three-year study in two Mediterranean peach orchards monitored Auchenorrhyncha species, including the main vectors of plant pathogens causing significant economic losses. The research focused on the management of two polyphagous leafhoppers, Asymmetrasca decedens and Hebata (Signatasca) solani. Yellow sticky traps were used to track species dynamics and assess population trends in relation to meteorological factors such as temperature, rainfall, and humidity. Chemical treatments and early green pruning were evaluated for pest control effectiveness. Fifty-five Auchenorrhyncha species were identified, including vectors of Xylella fastidiosa. H. solani appeared from spring to early summer, and was gradually replaced by A. decedens, which peaked in late summer. Higher temperatures favoured A. decedens, while rainy days significantly reduced its presence. H. solani responded less consistently to meteorological factors, but increased with higher minimum relative humidity, and decreased with higher total humidity. These results highlight the need for targeted chemical control strategies to manage A. decedens during its peak season and the benefits of early green pruning to protect susceptible trees in spring. The results emphasise the role of climate in pest dynamics and provide important insights for IPM programmes to reduce economic losses in Mediterranean peach orchards worldwide.

High-resolution assessment of climate change impacts on the surface energy and water balance in the glaciated Naryn River basin, Central Asia.

Mountain regions of Central Asia are experiencing strong influences from climate change, with significant reductions in snow cover and glacial reserves. A comprehensive assessment of the potential consequences under the worst-case climate scenario is vital for adaptation measures throughout the region. Water balance analysis in the Naryn River basin was conducted for the baseline period of 1981-2000 including potential changes under the worst-case SSP5-8.5 scenario for 2077-2096 by combining high-resolution (5km) regional climate projections with fully distributed glacio-hydrological (1km) modeling. Results showed that with the complete degradation of glaciers and increase in evapotranspiration, the overall runoff will decrease by 16%, and in the upper basins, the reduction will exceed 40%. The maximum snow water equivalent (SWE) is projected to decrease by 17%, and the seasonal peak of SWE will occur one month earlier. The transition from snow to rain will significantly affect lower regions, increasing extremes in peak runoff and causing 10-year recurrence interval events to occur every 3-4 years. Moreover, extreme runoff in high mountainous areas will increase due to intensified snowmelt and increased rainfall extremes. Additionally, a gradient of surface soil temperature change of 0.1°C per 100m elevation gain was observed, suggesting a potential snow-albedo feedback effect that could further amplify the warming, especially at higher altitudes. This study provides a robust analytical framework to assess the complex responses of mountain ecosystems to the impacts of climate change, with the potential of widespread application for addressing the challenges facing these critical regions.

A Comparison of Tourists’ Spatial–Temporal Behaviors Between Location-Based Service Data and Onsite GPS Tracks

Tourism and recreation managers rely on spatial-temporal data to measure visitors’ behavior for gauging carrying capacity and sustainable management. Location-based service (LBS) data, which passively record location data based on mobile devices, may enable managers to measure behaviors while overcoming constraints in labor, logistics, and cost associated with in-person data collection. However, further validation of LBS data at more refined spatial and temporal scales within tourism attractions is needed. We compared observations of salient spatial–temporal measures from a stratified sample of onsite visitors’ GPS traces in a popular U.S. National Park during peak season over two years with a sample of visitors’ traces collected during the same period by a third-party LBS data provider. We described trip characteristics and behaviors within 34 points of interest (POIs) and then pre-processed both datasets into weighted, directed networks that treated POIs as nodes and flow between POIs as edges. Both datasets reported similar proportions of day-use visitors (~79%) and had moderate-to-strong correlations across networks depicting visitor flow (r = 0.72–0.85, p &lt; 0.001). However, relative to the onsite data, LBS data underestimated the number of POIs the visitors stopped by and differed in its rank of popular POIs, underestimating the length of time visitors spent in POIs (z = 1, p ≤ 0.001) and overestimating visitation to the most popular POIs (z = 180, p = 0.044). Our findings suggest that LBS data may be helpful for identifying trends or tracking tourist movement in aggregate and at crude spatial and temporal scales, but they are too sparse and noisy to reliably measure exact movement patterns, visitation rates, and stay time within attractions.