Sea Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies Research Articles

Karadeniz'de 2000-2022 Yılları Arasında Yüzey Sıcaklığının Mekansal ve Zamansal Değişimi

This study presents a comprehensive assessment of the spatio-temporal variability of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) in the Black Sea at monthly to interannual scales, with a focus on understanding its connection to major large-scale atmospheric forcing during the period 2000-2022. Monthly variations of SST in the Black Sea reveal distinct seasonal patterns. The study evaluates the potential impacts of large-scale atmospheric patterns on interannual SST variations using climate indices such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), East Atlantic/West Russia (EA-WR) and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) during the winter months. The results indicated that these large-scale atmospheric oscillations played a substantial role in influencing SST anomalies, with the NAO and EA-WR indices particularly affecting the Black Sea's SST anomalies. The NAO index exhibited negative values during warm winters and positive values during cold winters, with extreme cold and warm winters corresponding to specific years, as observed in 2003, 2006, 2012, 2017 (cold) and 2018, 2020, 2021 (warm). Notably, the relationship between NAO and SST anomalies was not as dominant during 2000-2022. This difference might be explained by the combined influence of NAO and ENSO, which is beyond the scope of this study. The EA-WR pattern was identified as another significant large-scale atmospheric dynamic affecting the Black Sea's SST. Although it explains the cold SST anomalies in certain years, it cannot account for extreme warm SST years. While the influence of ENSO remains somewhat inconclusive for the extreme warm period, the SST pattern between 2016-2022 aligns closely with El Niño events, particularly in 2018 and 2021 when positive SOI index values coincide with warm SST years in the Black Sea.

Seasonal Prediction from Arctic Sea Surface Temperatures: Opportunities and Pitfalls

Arctic sea ice extent and sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies have been shown to be skillful predictors of weather anomalies in the midlatitudes on the seasonal time scale. In particular, below-normal sea ice extent in the Barents Sea in fall has sometimes preceded cold winters in parts of Eurasia. Here we explore the potential for predicting seasonal surface air temperature (SAT) anomalies in Europe from seasonal SST anomalies in the Nordic seas throughout the year. First, we show that fall SST anomalies not just in the Barents Sea but also in the Norwegian Sea have the potential to predict wintertime SAT anomalies in Europe. Norwegian Sea SST anomalies in spring are also significant predictors of European SAT anomalies in summer. Second, we demonstrate that the potential for prediction is sensitive to trends in the data. In particular, the lagged correlation between Norwegian Sea SST anomalies in spring and European SAT anomalies in summer is considerably higher for raw data than linearly detrended data, largely due to warming SST and SAT trends in recent decades. Third, we show that the potential for prediction has not been stationary in time. One key result is that, according to two twentieth-century reanalyses, the strength of the negative lagged correlation between Barents Sea SST anomalies in fall and European SAT anomalies in winter after 1979 is unprecedented since 1900.

Relative contribution of ENSO and East Asian winter monsoon to the South China Sea SST anomalies during ENSO decaying years

AbstractPresent study investigates respective contributions of El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) to two periods of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the South China Sea (SCS), one subsequent to the ENSO mature phase and the other in the following summer, during 1982–2010. It is found that the SST anomalies in the first period are related to the EAWM and the ENSO impact independent of EAWM is weak, which differs from previous studies. The SST anomalies in the second period are mainly due to the ENSO effect. A heat budget analysis shows that changes in shortwave radiation and wind‐related surface latent heat flux as well as horizontal advections are the processes leading to the EAWM‐related SST anomalies in the first period. The ENSO‐related SST anomalies in the second period are contributed by shortwave radiation and latent heat flux anomalies as well as meridional advection and vertical upwelling processes near the southeast coast of Indochina Peninsula. The ENSO contribution to the SCS SST anomalies in the first period is larger before than after the late 1970s. This is attributed to an earlier development of ENSO events that is followed by larger equatorial central and eastern Pacific SST anomalies in boreal summer and, subsequently, larger North Indian Ocean SST anomalies around October. Consequently, anomalous surface anticyclone over the SCS is stronger, leading to larger surface heat flux anomalies and thus a larger SST increase around October before than after the late 1970s.