Spring Sea Surface Temperature Research Articles

The role of the North Atlantic Ocean on the increase in East Asia’s spring extreme hot day occurrences across the early 2000s

The occurrence frequency of East Asia’s extreme hot day in boreal spring has increased since 1979. Using observational data and a Linear baroclinic model experiment, our study suggests that the occurrence of hot day is mainly due to anomalous high pressure over East Asia associated with a horizontal stationary wave train originating from a positive phase of the North Atlantic Tripole (NAT) sea surface temperature (SST) in spring. The effect of a positive phase of the NAT SST is evident in the 2000s, apparently associated with the linear trend of the North Atlantic SST like a positive phase of the NAT SST. Before 2000s, in contrast, SST forcing in the Indian Ocean and eastern tropical Pacific, which is associated with a negative phase of the NAT SST, may contribute to induce the East Asian hot days through atmospheric teleconnections. This implies that the relationship between a positive phase of the NAT SST and the occurrence of hot days in East Asia has been changed during the 2000s.

Dynamics of Spring Snow Cover Variability over Northeast China

Spring snow cover variability over Northeast China (NEC) has a profound influence on the local grain yield and even the food security of the country, but its drivers remain unclear. In the present study, we investigated the spatiotemporal features and the underlying mechanisms of spring snow cover variability over NEC during 1983–2018 based on the satellite-derived snow cover data and atmospheric reanalysis products. The empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis showed that the first EOF mode (EOF1) explains about 50% of the total variances and characterizes a coherent snow cover variability pattern over NEC. Further analyses suggested that the formation of the EOF1 mode is jointly affected by the atmospheric internal variability and the sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly at the interannual timescale. Specifically, following a negative phase of the atmospheric teleconnection of the Polar–Eurasian pattern, a prominent cyclonic circulation appears over NEC, which increases the snowfall over the east of NEC by enhancing the water vapor transport and decreases the air temperature through reducing the solar radiation and intensifying the cold advection. As a result, the snow cover has increased over NEC. Additionally, the tripole structure of the North Atlantic spring SST anomaly could excite a wave-train-type anomalous circulation propagating to NEC that further regulates the snow cover variability by altering the atmospheric dynamic and thermodynamic conditions and the resultant air temperature and snowfall. Our results have important implications on the understanding of the spring snow cover anomaly over NEC and the formulation of the local agricultural production plan.

Long-term changes in bloom dynamics of Southern and Central Baltic cold-water phytoplankton

In the Baltic Sea, cold-water adapted dinoflagellates and diatoms dominate the phytoplankton spring bloom of the Northern and Eastern Basins of the Baltic Sea. In the Central and Southern parts, where such species are less prominent, they cause occasional biomass peaks. We hypothesized that these dynamics correlate with ice cover, sea surface temperature (SST), and water transport processes, as the large Basins of the Central Baltic Sea are too deep to build-up blooms from their own seed banks. Long-term monitoring data from the past 40 and 20 years in the central and southern Baltic Sea, respectively, were analyzed here for biomass development of five cold-adapted taxa: the diatoms Pauliella taeniata, Thalassiosira baltica, Thalassiosira levanderi and Melosira spp. and the dinoflagellate Peridinella catenata. Results show that diatoms generally reached high biomass peaks in the 1980s and in shorter periods from 1995-1997, 2003- 2006, and 2010-2013 in all areas. We detected good correlations with the length of the ice cover period as well as low minimum and mean winter and spring SSTs. In contrast, biomass dynamics of the dinoflagellate P. catenata are more independent from these factors but have decreased strongly since the beginning of the 21st century. A numerical ocean model analysis confirmed the hypothesis that large blooms in the deep basins are seeded through water transport from adjacent shallow, ice-covered coastal areas such as the Gulf of Finland and the Gulf of Riga. Our results show that under ongoing climate warming, the common cold-water species may disappear from spring blooms in southern and central areas with unknown consequences for the ecosystem.

Seasonal Predictability of North American Surface Temperature Arises from SST Propagation over the Western Pacific

Abstract The predictability of temperatures in North America is of great importance for local agriculture and human health. In autumn (SON), the temperature in North America is correlated with ENSO, but its predictive skill is limited. Here, we show that spring (MAM) sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the southwest Pacific (SWP) exhibit a higher correlation with autumn temperature in North America (r = 0.73) than ENSO. This cross-seasonal and cross-hemispheric relationship is established via the western tropical Pacific (WTP) region. The spring SWP SST anomalies show a cross-hemispheric propagation embedded in the southerly monsoonal flow through the wind–evaporation–SST feedback, which sustains the progression of SST anomalies toward the WTP in autumn. The AGCM simulations from multimodels show that active convection in the WTP caused by SST warming stimulate a Rossby wave train propagating downward to North America, where it is governed by an anomalous high with increased atmospheric thickness and tropospheric temperature. Consequently, the longwave radiative heating over North America is enhanced, raising the surface air temperature. These results indicate that the SWP SST is a useful predictor of North American temperature 6 months in advance through the cross-hemispheric influence. A model based on the spring SWP SST and preceding winter ENSO (Niño-3.4) shows a high predictive skill for the autumn temperature anomalies in North America. Significance Statement Seasonal predictions of surface temperature are important for agricultural decision-making, disaster prevention, and mitigation. Over the western Pacific, associated with the seasonal evolution of ITCZ, there is a strong northward progression of SST anomaly signals generated in the southwest Pacific. This study finds that this cross-hemispheric SST propagation can significantly impact the autumn surface temperature over central North America through the atmospheric bridge. A statistical model incorporating southwest Pacific SST for spring is constructed to predict the North American autumn surface temperature and exhibits high consistency with observations. This improves our understanding of the interhemispheric interactions at seasonal time scales and the seasonal predictability of the North American climate.

Westward extension of summer atmospheric circulation over the North Pacific after the 1990s

This paper documents the westward extension of the summer atmospheric circulation over the North Pacific (NP circulation) around the 1990s and investigates the possible reason, based on the North Pacific index. The NP circulation was centered in the Northeast Pacific during 1961–1983 and in the central North Pacific during 1994–2016. Further results show that the westward movement of the NP circulation was closely linked with an intensification of the relationship between the NP circulation and the previous spring sea surface temperature of the midlatitude North Pacific (SST_NP) after the 1990s. The spring SST_NP anomalies exerted considerable impacts on surface heat flux (i.e., sensible heat flux and latent heat flux) and vertical motion anomalies over the central North Pacific during the following summer, facilitating a westward shift in the summer NP circulation. Additionally, the interannual variability of the sea level pressure over the central North Pacific increased after the 1990s, which was likely a contributing factor to the westward extension of the NP circulation.摘要本文研究了20世纪90年代前后夏季北太平洋大气环流 (NP circulation) 向西扩展, 并探讨了其可能的原因. 结果表明, 在1961–1983年期间NP中心主要位于东北太平洋, 而在1994–2016年期间NP中心发生西移, 至北太平洋中部. 进一步分析指出, 90年代以后NP活动中心的西移和春季中纬度北太平洋海温(SST_NP) 与NP关系的加强有关. 春季SST_NP异常通过引起后期夏季北太平洋中部地表热通量(即感热通量和潜热通量)和垂直运动异常, 有利于NP活动中心向西移动. 此外, 20世纪90年代以后, 北太平洋中部海平面气压的年际变率增加, 这可能是NP向西扩展的另一原因.

El Niño and La Niña asymmetry in short-term predictability on springtime initial condition

El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) asymmetry in predictability on springtime initial condition remains unclear. From the perspective of the spring predictability barrier (SPB), this paper investigates the ENSO asymmetry in SPB and explores the potential factors that may lead to this asymmetry. Both the observation and 29 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models show that the spring sea surface temperature (SST) persistence is significantly higher in El Niño years than that in La Niña years, and the SPB intensity is stronger in La Niña years than that in El Niño years. Through the recharge oscillator model, observation and CMIP6 models, we demonstrate that the nonlinear wind stress response to SST anomalies in spring is the main cause of the asymmetric SPB intensity. By the mixed-layer heat budget of the tropical Pacific in the spring, we further identify that a stronger response of zonal wind stress in El Niño events can cause a stronger zonal advection feedback, which finally leads to a weaker SPB and enhances the predictability of El Niño. In contrast, the cooling SST in the spring only leads to weak easterly anomalies, the zonal advection feedback is relatively weaker, thus SPB is stronger and the predictability of La Niña is lower. From the perspective of SPB, we suggest that El Niño is more predictable than La Niña.

Increased parental effort fails to buffer the cascading effects of warmer seas on common guillemot demographic rates.

Climate warming can reduce food resources for animal populations. In species exhibiting parental care, parental effort is a 'barometer' of changes in environmental conditions. A key issue is the extent to which variation in parental effort can buffer demographic rates against environmental change. Seabirds breed in large, dense colonies and globally are major predators of small fish that are often sensitive to ocean warming. We explored the causes and consequences of annual variation in parental effort as indicated by standardised checks of the proportions of chicks attended by both, one or neither parent, in a population of common guillemots Uria aalge over four decades during which there was marked variation in marine climate and chick diet. We predicted that, for parental effort to be an effective buffer, there would be a link between environmental conditions and parental effort, but not between parental effort and demographic rates. Environmental conditions influenced multiple aspects of the prey delivered by parents to their chicks with prey species, length and energy density all influenced by spring sea surface temperature (sSST) in the current and/or previous year. Overall, the mean annual daily energy intake of chicks declined significantly when sSST in the current year was higher. In accordance with our first prediction, we found that parental effort increased with sSST in the current and previous year. However, the increase was insufficient to maintain chick daily energy intake. In contrast to our second prediction, we found that increased parental effort had major demographic consequences such that growth rate and fledging success of chicks, and body mass and overwinter survival of breeding adults all decreased significantly. Common guillemot parents were unable to compensate effectively for temperature-mediated variation in feeding conditions through behavioural flexibility, resulting in immediate consequences for breeding population size because of lower adult survival and potentially longer-term impacts on recruitment because of lower productivity. These findings highlight that a critical issue for species' responses to future climate change will be the extent to which behavioural buffering can offer resilience to deteriorating environmental conditions.

Weakening of the Summer Monsoon Over the Past 150 Years Shown by a Tree‐Ring Record From Shandong, Eastern China, and the Potential Role of North Atlantic Climate

AbstractThe causes of the decreased intensity of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) over the past 150 years are still not fully understood, although several studies have linked the monsoon weakening to the warming of tropical oceans. Here, we use pine tree‐rings to reconstruct the precipitation total for April–August from 1810 to 2018, in south‐central Shandong Province, in the EASM region. The reconstruction accounts for 41.8% of the instrumental precipitation variance during 1965–2018. The EASM precipitation reconstruction shows extreme pluvial conditions in 1832, 1833, 1886, and 1998, and extreme droughts in 1878, 1901, and 1910, which correspond precisely to extreme climatic events recorded in historical documents. The reconstructed precipitation reveals a drying trend since the 1870s, which matches well with the decreasing trend of the EASM inferred from stalagmite oxygen isotope (δ18O) records and climate simulations. The trend of decreasing precipitation since the 1870s, indicated by our reconstruction, is significantly correlated with the spring sea surface temperature (SST) of the North Atlantic Ocean, which suggests that the EASM weakening was linked to North Atlantic SST variations during the past 150 years. This potential role of North Atlantic SST variability is supported by climate sensitivity simulations of the Community Earth System Model. North Atlantic SST variability induces two teleconnections of Rossby‐like wave propagation from the North Atlantic into East Asia, resulting in anomalous precipitation in this region.

The Warming of the Arabian Sea Induced a Northward Summer Monsoon over the Tibetan Plateau

Abstract Summer monsoon precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) has significant impacts on the ecology, economy, and Asian climate, but has exhibited anomalous spatial distribution since the early twenty-first century. To explore its distribution and attribution, this study investigated the northernmost boundary of the summer monsoon over the TP (TPSM) and the related precipitation. The TPSM and related precipitation extended poleward in the post-2000 period in response to the rising Arabian Sea surface temperature (ARB_SST) in the late spring and early summer. A warming Arabian Sea leads to the westward movement of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) circulation and moisture convergence with a higher moisture layer, which exerts a midlatitude wave train that exhibits a dipole mode (a west cyclone and an east anticyclone) over the TP. Consequently, the west trough and southerly are strengthened, which is conducive to transporting more poleward moisture mass from the moisture layer over the ISM zone through the midwestern TP. Furthermore, it contributes to the poleward TPSM and precipitation in the northern TP by coupling with the dipole mode. These findings help explain the wetting of the Asian dryland and its effects on the Northern Hemispheric climate.

Influence of boreal spring sea surface temperature anomalies over the tropical South Atlantic on the Meiyu onset

This study investigates the impact of boreal spring tropical South Atlantic surface sea temperature anomalies (TSA-SSTA) on the anticyclone over the western North Pacific (WNPAC) and the Meiyu onset date (MOD) based on reanalysis data and numerical experiments. The results indicate an intimate linkage between the MOD and TSA-SSTA, in which warmer spring TSA-SSTA are associated with an earlier MOD and vice versa, and the underlying mechanism is identified. Warm TSA-SSTA can trigger a Gill-type response and anomalous equatorial Walker circulation, which leads to anomalous upward motion and latent heating over the Maritime Continent. This anomalous condition over the Maritime Continent strengthens local Hadley circulation accordingly accompanied by anomalous descending motion over the western North Pacific. This descending motion reduces the local rainfall and enhances the equatorward northerly wind at low level. Further analysis reveals that local Sverdrup positive feedback between the anomalous diabatic cooling owing to reduced rainfall and the lower-level equatorward northerly wind is critical for sustaining the well-developed anomalous WNPAC. The abundant water vapor transport embedded in the northwestern flank of the anomalous WNPAC eventually favors an earlier MOD. Atmospheric conditions corresponding to cold TSA-SSTA produce the opposite effect. The spring TSA-SSTA can therefore prominently communicate with the subsequent East Asian MOD via the aforementioned mechanism, and the spring TSA-SSTA can be interpreted as a precursor signal of the East Asian MOD.

Seasonally Modulated El Niño Precipitation Response in the Eastern Pacific and Its Dependence on El Niño Flavors

Abstract Many previous studies have shown that El Niño exhibits a strong seasonality in its teleconnections and regional climate impacts. Aside from the seasonal synchronization of El Niño anomalous sea surface temperature (SST) itself, seasonal differences in its associated climate impacts could also stem from the local background seasonal cycle. During the El Niño developing boreal autumn (August–October) and decaying boreal spring (February–April), the El Niño–associated precipitation anomalies display remarkably different patterns over the eastern tropical Pacific despite similar SST anomaly amplitudes. This strong seasonality can be largely attributed to the seasonal cycle of the eastern tropical Pacific SST background state with the cold tongue being strongest in autumn and weakest in spring. Therefore, the El Niño–associated SST in spring is likely to exceed the convection threshold on both sides of the equator, leading to an approximately symmetric precipitation response about the equator. In contrast, this symmetric precipitation response is absent in autumn since the SST near and south of the equator remains below the threshold and pronounced eastern tropical precipitation anomalies can only be observed in the warm Northern Hemisphere. This seasonality is mainly embodied in eastern Pacific (EP) El Niño events rather than central Pacific (CP) El Niño events since the westward-shifted warm SST anomalies for the latter cannot establish an effective cooperation with the cold tongue SST annual cycle. This study has important implications for regional climate prediction by involving the different local precipitation responses over the tropical eastern Pacific.

Match/Mismatch Between Phytoplankton and Crustacean Zooplankton Phenology in the Strait of Georgia, Canada

The Strait of Georgia, Canada, is an important region for numerous commercially and culturally important species (e.g., herring, salmon, and orcas), yet little is known about the links between lower trophic level (e.g. phytoplankton and zooplankton) phenology due to historical sampling gaps. Here, we present fourteen years (2003-2016) of data linking interannual variability in phytoplankton and zooplankton phenology in the Central Strait of Georgia, BC. Satellite-derived chlorophyll a (Chl a) data were used to calculate spring bloom dynamics (bloom initiation, bloom intensity, and bloom magnitude). Average spring bloom initiation occurred during the last week of March in the Central Strait of Georgia. Bloom initiation occurred in mid-to-late February/early March during “early” Chl a bloom years (2004, 2005, and 2015) whereas initiation did not occur until the end of April during “late” bloom years (2007, 2008). Spring Chl a bloom initiation was significantly correlated with the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO; r = 0.75, p < 0.01) and spring sea surface temperature (SST; r = -0.70, p < 0.01); spring blooms occurred earlier during warm years. When all environmental variables were considered together, NPGO best explained variations in spring bloom initiation (Adj R2 = 0.53, p < 0.01) and bloom magnitude (Adj R2 = 0.57, p < 0.01), whereas stratification best explained variations in bloom intensity (Adj R2 = 0.38, p < 0.05). Early Chl a blooms were associated with high crustacean abundance (maximum of > 1000 ind m-3) but low biomass (37.5 mg m-3). Independent of the Chl a data, hierarchical cluster analysis revealed similar groupings of years for crustacean abundance data. Most notably, community composition in cluster Group 2 (2004, 2005, and 2015; early Chl a bloom years), was comprised of a higher proportion of small crustaceans (e.g. non-calanoid copepods) compared to the other cluster groups. To our knowledge, this study provides the first evidence linking early spring Chl a bloom timing to a shift in the crustacean community towards smaller taxa in response to multiple warm events in the Strait of Georgia. Our results show that early Chl a blooms may potentially result in a mismatch between phytoplankton and large energy-rich crustacean zooplankton, with lower abundances of the latter. In contrast, average Chl a bloom years were optimal for large-bodied euphausiids, whereas late Chl a blooms were a match for some crustaceans (e.g., medium calanoid copepods), but not others (e.g., large calanoid copepods and amphipods). We hypothesize that early bloom years may result in poorer feeding conditions for juvenile salmon and other predators in the region.

Reconstruction of the main phytoplankton population off the Changjiang Estuary in the East China Sea and its assemblage shift in recent decades: From observations to simulation

Under eutrophication background, the increasing dinoflagellates blooms relative to diatoms blooms off the Changjiang Estuary has caused much concern. We have provided sediment evidence for the first time that the time window of diatoms-to-dinoflagellates shift off the Changjiang Estuary in the East China Sea is early 1990s. Investigations to the water column revealed different surface-bottom concentration matchup patterns between peridinin (dinoflagellates) and fucoxanthin (diatoms), which suggests that the diatoms-dinoflagellates shift recorded in the sediment may have come from more dinoflagellate blooms since 1990s. Physical-biogeochemical 3D numerical simulations for the past decades suggest that the effect of increasing spring sea surface temperature and increasing N/P ratio on the diatoms-dinoflagellates shift is dominant and recessive, respectively.

Self-Organizing Maps Identify Windows of Opportunity for Seasonal European Summer Predictions

We combine a machine learning method and ensemble climate predictions to investigate windows of opportunity for seasonal predictability of European summer climate associated with the North Atlantic jet stream. We particularly focus on the impact of North Atlantic spring sea surface temperatures (SST) on the four dominant atmospheric teleconnections associated with the jet stream: the summer North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in positive and negative phases, the Atlantic Ridge (At. Ridge), and Atlantic Low (At. Low). We go beyond standard forecast practices by not only identifying these atmospheric teleconnections and their SST precursors but by making use of these identified precursors in the analysis of a dynamical forecast ensemble. Specifically, we train the neural network-based classifier Self-Organizing Maps (SOM) with ERA-20C reanalysis and combine it with model simulations from the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model in mixed resolution (MPI-ESM-MR). We use two different sets of 30-member hindcast ensembles initialized every May, one for training and evaluation between 1902 and 2008, and one for verification between 1980–2016, respectively. Among the four summer atmospheric teleconnections analyzed here, we find that At. Ridge simulated by MPI-ESM-MR shows the best agreement with ERA-20C, thereby representing with its occurrence windows of opportunity for skillful summer predictions. Conversely, At. Low shows the lowest agreement, which might limit the model skill for early warning of warmer than average summers. In summary, we find that spring SST patterns identified with a SOM analysis can be used to guess the dominant summer atmospheric teleconnections at initialization and guide a sub-selection of potential skillful ensemble members. This holds especially true for At. Ridge and At. Low and is unclear for summer NAO. We show that predictive skill in the selected ensemble exceeds that of the full ensemble over regions in the Euro-Atlantic domain where spring SST significantly correlates with summer sea level pressure (SLP). In particular, we find a significant improvement in predictive skill for SLP, geopotential height at 500 hPa, and 2 m temperature at 3–4 months lead time over Scandinavia, which is robust among the two sets of hindcast ensembles.

Strengthening impacts of spring sea surface temperature in the north tropical Atlantic on Indian Ocean dipole after the mid-1980s

It is well known that the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) is closely related to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). In this study, it is found that spring–summer north tropical Atlantic (NTA) sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies can contribute to the development of the IOD since the mid-1980s as well as ENSO. After the mid-1980s, an anticyclonic circulation over the subtropical northeastern Pacific could be excited by cool NTA SST anomalies in spring and summer due to a Gill-type Rossby-wave response. A low-level cyclonic circulation appears in the west Pacific in turn. The anomalous lower-level southwesterlies on the southeastern flank of the cyclonic circulation reduce the climatological wind speed, and thus, warm SST anomalies appear and extend to the central tropical Pacific via the wind-evaporation-SST (WES) feedback. As a result, Walker circulation over the Indo-Pacific region is changed, with anomalous descending in the eastern tropical Indian Ocean and ascending in the central tropical Pacific. The descending branch of anomalous Walker circulation generates surface southeasterly wind anomalies along the coast off Sumatra and lifts the thermocline in the eastern tropical Indian Ocean, which produces a positive IOD event in autumn. Such a cross-basin mechanism is supported by a coupled model experiment with warm SST perturbations over the NTA. In contrast, although cold NTA SST anomalies can induce warm SST anomalies in the eastern equatorial Pacific through interhemispheric meridional circulation before the mid-1980s, the responses in the tropical Indian Ocean are rather weak. In addition, the enhancement in the NTA-IOD relationship after the mid-1980s is suggested to result from the changes in the SST mean state under the context of global warming, which is confirmed by two coupled model experiments with different mean SST backgrounds.

Impact of Internal Climate Variability on the Relationship between Spring Northern Tropical Atlantic SST Anomalies and Succedent Winter ENSO: The Role of the North Pacific Oscillation

Abstract Previous studies suggested that spring sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) in the northern tropical Atlantic (NTA) have a marked influence on the succedent winter El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). In this study, we examine the spring NTA SSTA–winter ENSO connection in a 50-member large-ensemble simulation conducted with the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis second-generation Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2) and a 100-member ensemble simulation conducted with the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM). The observed out-of-phase relation of spring NTA SSTA with winter ENSO can be captured by the multimember ensemble means of the large-ensemble simulations from both models. However, the relation shows a large diversity among different ensemble members attributing to the internal climate variability. The preceding winter North Pacific Oscillation (NPO) is suggested to be an important source of the internal climate variability that modulates the spring NTA SSTA–ENSO connection. The modulation of the winter NPO on the subsequent spring NTA SSTA–winter ENSO relation is seen in both climate modeling and observational datasets. When winter NPO and spring NTA SSTA indices have the same (opposite) sign, the linkage between the spring NTA SSTA and the following winter ENSO tends to be weak (strong). The NPO modulates the spring NTA SSTA–winter ENSO relation mainly via changing the zonal wind anomalies over the tropical western-to-central Pacific induced by the spring NTA SSTA. In addition, our analysis indicates that winter NPO may have a marked effect on the predictability of winter ENSO based on the condition of spring NTA SSTA.

Oceanic and land relay effects linking spring tropical Indian Ocean sea surface temperature and summer Tibetan Plateau precipitation

The present study investigates the characteristics and factors of the variability of summer precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau (TP). It is found that interannual variations of summer precipitation tend to be opposite over the eastern and western TP, manifesting an east-west TP precipitation dipole pattern (TPPD). The summer TPPD is significantly correlated with the spring sea surface temperature (SST) in the tropical Indian Ocean, and the latter can be considered an important precursor for the former. The impacts of spring SST in the tropical Indian Ocean on summer TPPD are through oceanic and land relay effects. For the oceanic relay effect, the positive SST anomaly (SSTA) in the tropical Indian Ocean persists from spring to summer and induces the upper-tropospheric positive geopotential height anomaly and anomalous anticyclone to the south of the TP by stimulating a Rossby wave response. Winter El Niño and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) contribute to the persistence of the SSTA in the Indian Ocean from spring to summer through modulating a spring asymmetric mode in the Indian Ocean. The SSTAs in the Indian Ocean affect the western North Pacific anticyclone at lower troposphere through modulating the Indo-Western Pacific Ocean capacitor (IPOC) mode. These circulation anomalies adjust the variability of the summer TPPD. For the land relay effect, the SSTA in the tropical Indian Ocean induces the soil moisture (SM) anomaly in the Turan Plain through modulating atmospheric circulation around the Arabian Peninsula and the Mediterranean Sea during spring. The SM anomaly in the Turan Plain is maintained from spring to summer and induces the upper-tropospheric negative geopotential height anomaly and anomalous cyclone north of the TP during summer by stimulating an anomalous vertical motion. Through the above oceanic and land processes, a north-south opposite pattern of geopotential height anomalies around the TP appears and eventually modulates water vapor transport into the TP and hence the formation of the TPPD during summer. Further analyses reveal that the impact of the winter El Niño and IOD and spring tropical Indian Ocean SST on the summer TPPD becomes weaker when one of the abovementioned relay effects is absent.

Long-term characteristics of water quality around the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area: Spatiotemporal variations and meteorological effects

Monitoring the coastal water quality (CWQ) and determining the effects of meteorological factors (MF) on the long-term CWQ adjacent to urban agglomerations are key topics in coastal monitoring and management. This study used satellite-derived data to study the long-term CWQ around the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area (GBA) with indicators of chlorophyll-a concentration (Chla) and diffuse attenuation coefficient for downwelling irradiance at 490 nm (Kd(490)). The sea surface temperature (SST) and total precipitation accumulation (TPA) of the waters around the GBA were also studied from 2003 to 2019. Furthermore, statistical analysis was conducted to identify the impact of the MF on CWQ by quantifying trends and relationships of CWQ & MF. The results showed that (1) An increasing trend of annual Chla, Kd(490), and TPA were observed, whereas a decreasing trend of SST has been recorded from 2003 to 2019. Both CWQ indicators and meteorological variables showed significant differences among seasons, and the values of Chla, Kd(490), and SST were found higher in the coastal area but lower in the open waters area. (2) SST was the crucial factor of the high values of CWQ indicators in summer: the highest values of Chla and Kd(490) in summer are likely to be attributed to the proper SST (r = 0.87; r = 0.83) and higher TPA in spring (r = 0.95; r = 0.93). The precipitation played an uncertain role in driving the CWQ (r > 0.9 and r < −0.9 in spring and winter, respectively). A significant increase in TPA was associated with the decrease of SST in the coming year. (3) Due to the relatively stable change of natural environment and human activities, the trends of Chla, Kd(490), and TPA remained broadly consistent with those of the past 17 years. However, SST indicates a slight downward trend. In summary, the TPA and SST-driven patterns were essential in the management of water quality indicators in the GBA area. This study can improve our comprehensive understanding of the water quality status in the coastal regions of the GBA and provide references to the coastal zone and marine management, as well as the sustainable development of the GBA.

Skillful decadal prediction of unforced southern European summer temperature variations

We assess the capability of decadal prediction simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) archive to predict European summer temperature during the period 1970–2014. Using a multi-model ensemble average, we show that Southern European (SEU) summer temperatures are highly predictable for up to ten years in CMIP6. Much of this predictive skill, is related to the externally forced response: historical simulations explain about 90% of observed SEU summer temperature variance. Prediction skill for the unforced signal of SEU summer temperature is low: initialized model simulations explain less than 10% of observed variance after removing the externally forced response. An observed link between unforced SEU summer temperature and preceding spring Eastern North Atlantic—Mediterranean sea surface temperature (SST) motivates the application of a dynamical-statistical model to overcome the low summer temperature skill over Europe. This dynamical-statistical model uses dynamical spring SST predictions to predict European summer temperature, and significantly increases decadal prediction skill of unforced European summer temperature variations, showing significant prediction skill for unforced Southern European summer temperature 2–9 years ahead. As a result, dynamical-statistical models can benefit the decadal prediction of variables with initially limited skill beyond the forcing, such as summer temperature over Europe.

Local and global environmental drivers of growth chronologies in a demersal fish in the south-eastern Pacific Ocean

Upwelling and the El Niño “Southern Oscillation” (ENSO) are recurrent climatic phenomena in the southeastern Pacific Ocean that severely affect the reproduction and growth of pelagic fish populations. However, there are not long-term growth data from demersal fish populations to test these interconections in a long-term analysis. For this reason, a first extensive growth chronology was reconstructed from the annual growth of sagittal otoliths as a proxy for somatic growth for the cardinalfish (Epigonus crassicaudus). Adult fish ranging from 35 to 40 cm in fork length and from 39 to 63 years in age were collected off Chilean waters. The master chronologies were estimated for the period from 1974 to 2014, using the regional curve standardization approach (RCS) and linear mixed models (LMMs). Growth indexes derived from both approaches followed a similar trend and were positively correlated with the Humboldt Current Index (HCI) and negatively with ENSO, Pacific Decadal Oscillation and sea surface temperature. LMMs showed that a 75% of growth variability was explained by the age of increment formation and HCI was the environmental index that most significantly affected the annual growth of cardinalfish followed by the sea surface temperature in spring. A reduced growth phase from 1974 to 1996 contrasted with a higher growth period from 1997, matching the 1997/1998 climatic regime shift, demonstrating that the enhanced growth for cardinalfish was associated with upwelling of nutrient rich water to the surface, triggering an increase of the primary and secondary productivity during the prevalence of a cold regime period in the Humboldt Current System. The consistence between RCS and LMM methods was indicative that both approaches are promising to evaluate the influence of environmental drivers on the growth condition of a demersal fish population in a highly productive marine ecosystem.