Significant Sea Level Research Articles

Kinetic Energy of Eddy‐Like Features From Sea Surface Altimetry

AbstractThe mesoscale eddy field plays a key role in the mixing and transport of physical and biological properties and redistribution of energy in the ocean. Eddy kinetic energy is commonly defined as the kinetic energy of the time‐varying component of the velocity field. However, this definition contains all processes that vary in time, including coherent mesoscale eddies, jets, waves, and large‐scale motions. The focus of this paper is on the eddy kinetic energy contained in coherent mesoscale eddies. We present a new method to decompose eddy kinetic energy into oceanic processes. The proposed method uses a new eddy identification algorithm (TrackEddy). This algorithm is based on the premise that the sea level signature of a coherent eddy can be approximated as a Gaussian feature. The eddy Gaussian signature then allows for the calculation of kinetic energy of the eddy field through the geostrophic approximation. TrackEddy has been validated using synthetic sea surface height data and then used to investigate trends of eddy kinetic energy in the Southern Ocean using satellite sea surface height anomaly (AVISO+). We detect an increasing trend of eddy kinetic energy associated with mesoscale eddies in the Southern Ocean. This trend is correlated with an increase in the coherent eddy amplitude and the strengthening of wind stress over the last two decades.

Natural decadal sea-level variability in the Indian Ocean: lessons from CMIP models

Indian Ocean decadal sea-level variability is an active research area, with many unresolved questions due to inadequate observational coverage. In this study, we analyse 26 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) pre-industrial simulations and isolate two consistent modes of Indian Ocean variability, which collectively explain about 50% of the total decadal sea-level variance. With opposite sea-level signals in the southwestern and eastern Indian Ocean, the first mode is related to decadal modulation of the Indian Ocean Dipole (DIOD) and equatorial wind-driven dynamics. Though IOD is more independent of the El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) at decadal (r ~ 0.4) than interannual (r ~ 0.6) timescales, the DIOD–ENSO co-variability yields sea-level signals along the west coast of Australia, transmitted from the western Pacific via the Indonesian Throughflow. The second mode encompasses variability in the south Indian Ocean (SIODV), exhibiting a broad monopolar sea-level pattern east of Madagascar. In about half of the models, the SIODV is largely independent from DIOD (and decadal ENSO) and driven by south Indian Ocean wind-stress curl associated with meridional shifts in the Mascarene High (MH). In the other models, the SIODV lags the DIOD about 3 years. In those models, in addition to MH forcing, the DIOD-related alongshore wind stress off the northwest Australian coast triggers Rossby waves that also contribute to the SIODV, further west. The DIOD and MH forcing are mutually independent (r ~ 0.2). The results are broadly consistent with sea-level variations derived from the short altimeter data, despite an underestimation of the Oceanic bridge signals in CMIP models.

Sea Level Variation around Australia and Its Relation to Climate Indices

This study aims at investigating the intradecadal and decadal signals of the sea level using 25 years of altimetry data around Australia. We have used the multivariable spectral analysis to extract six periodic signals at the 95% confidence level from altimetry-derived sea-level time series in the study area. They are signals with periods of 1, 1.5, 3, 4.3, 5.7 and 11.17 years, which can also be detected in the estimated power spectra from climate indices of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation, Multivariate ENSO Index, and Pacific Decadal Oscillation. A parametric model including the detected periodic signals is used to estimate sea-level trends. The determined trends in the area are in a good agreement with recent studies that consider effects of climate indices through a multivariate regression model. The advantage of our model is to present more descriptive explanation of the sea level signals around Australia in terms of periodicity and spatial variability.

Reconstructing the groundwater recharge history for the Plymouth-Carver Aquifer Massachusetts, USA

Groundwater systems can respond to climate forcing and millennial climate shifts more slowly than other components of the hydrologic cycle, making it difficult to reconstruct the influences and responses of groundwater to changing climate. Here, we test the linkage between climate change and groundwater responses by using water level changes situated in areas with permeable, unconfined aquifers systems. For hydroclimate histories, we compare moisture models from terrestrial water level reconstructions with predictions of available water from a transient earth system climate model. We focus our analysis on several small waterbodies with Holocene-era proxy measurements that are connected to the Plymouth-Carver glacial aquifer in southeastern Massachusetts, USA. Using these pond- and marsh-based records, we reconstruct groundwater recharge histories along individual groundwater flow paths using water level and sea level reconstructions with an analytical solution to the groundwater flow equation. We find that the water level reconstructions could contain both hydroclimate and sea level signals, with the early Holocene water levels primarily due to hydroclimate with predominantly a sea level signal after ∼7.5 ka cal BP. Our results indicate that sea level influenced coastal pond water levels, and sea level may play a more significant role than effective moisture over certain periods in the Holocene for terrestrial water bodies hydraulically connected to the evolving position of the coast. Future climate reconstructions developed from water level histories from low-elevation inland water bodies may benefit from examining the potential influence of sea level in addition to hydroclimate, but additional model validation and consideration of other cryosphere and glacial processes are needed to fully resolve sea level as a driver of terrestrial water level change.

The dynamics of weather-band sea level variations in the Red Sea

The variations of sea level over the Red Sea may be divided into three broad categories: tidal, seasonal and weather-band. Our study employs a variety of in situ and satellite-derived data in the first comprehensive examination of the Red Sea water level variations in the weather-band (covering periods of ∼ 4–30 days). In the central Red Sea, the range of the weather-band sea level signal is of order 0.7 m, which exceeds the tidal and seasonal sea level ranges. From EOF and correlation analysis, we find that a large fraction of the weather-band sea level variation is due to a single mode of motion that extends over the entire Red Sea. In this mode, the water level rises and falls in unison with an amplitude that declines going southward over the southern Red Sea. The temporal signal of this mode is highly correlated with the along-axis surface wind stress over the southern Red Sea, and is closely reproduced by a simple one-dimensional barotropic model with forcing by the along-axis wind stress. Although this model does not account for the full suite of dynamics affecting weather-band sea level variations in the Red Sea, it may serve as a useful predictive tool. Sea level changes associated with the development and movement of sub-mesoscale features (e.g., eddies and boundary currents) are also shown to contribute to weather-band sea level motions in the Red Sea.

Sea level acceleration caused by earthquake induced subsidence in the Samoa Islands

The anomalous pattern of relative sea levels for the Samoan Islands that followed the 2009 earthquake and tsunami is explained by coupling tide-gauge time series of relative sea levels and GPS time series of absolute geocentric positions of inland fixed domes. The subsidence of the land is responsible for the relative sea level acceleration that followed the earthquake. The pattern of subsidence is characterized by small departures from a linear pattern immediately before the earthquake, an abrupt change at the earthquake, and then a parabolically reducing extra subsidence. The absolute geocentric sea levels obtained clearing the relative sea level signal of the subsidence signal are stable. There is a need to couple GPS monitoring of tide gauge position with tide gauge measurements of relative sea levels without any linearity assumption to produce reliable, accurate, assessments of the pattern of sea level rise to inform policy makers.

Orbit-related sea level errors for TOPEX altimetry at seasonal to decadal timescales

Abstract. Interannual to decadal sea level trends are indicators of climate variability and change. A major source of global and regional sea level data is satellite radar altimetry, which relies on precise knowledge of the satellite's orbit. Here, we assess the error budget of the radial orbit component for the TOPEX/Poseidon mission for the period 1993 to 2004 from a set of different orbit solutions. The errors for seasonal, interannual (5-year), and decadal periods are estimated on global and regional scales based on radial orbit differences from three state-of-the-art orbit solutions provided by different research teams: the German Research Centre for Geosciences (GFZ), the Groupe de Recherche de Géodésie Spatiale (GRGS), and the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC). The global mean sea level error related to orbit uncertainties is of the order of 1 mm (8 % of the global mean sea level variability) with negligible contributions on the annual and decadal timescales. In contrast, the orbit-related error of the interannual trend is 0.1 mm yr−1 (27 % of the corresponding sea level variability) and might hamper the estimation of an acceleration of the global mean sea level rise. For regional scales, the gridded orbit-related error is up to 11 mm, and for about half the ocean the orbit error accounts for at least 10 % of the observed sea level variability. The seasonal orbit error amounts to 10 % of the observed seasonal sea level signal in the Southern Ocean. At interannual and decadal timescales, the orbit-related trend uncertainties reach regionally more than 1 mm yr−1. The interannual trend errors account for 10 % of the observed sea level signal in the tropical Atlantic and the south-eastern Pacific. For decadal scales, the orbit-related trend errors are prominent in a several regions including the South Atlantic, western North Atlantic, central Pacific, South Australian Basin, and the Mediterranean Sea. Based on a set of test orbits calculated at GFZ, the sources of the observed orbit-related errors are further investigated. The main contributors on all timescales are uncertainties in Earth's time-variable gravity field models and on annual to interannual timescales discrepancies of the tracking station subnetworks, i.e. satellite laser ranging (SLR) and Doppler Orbitography and Radiopositioning Integrated by Satellite (DORIS).

Fluvial sequences and basin development in the northern Galilee Basin

ABSTRACTIn the northern Galilee Basin, 10 third-order depositional sequences have been recognised in multi-suite geophysical logs of 16 wells and boreholes. Sequences can be subdivided into genetic systems tracts characterised by geometry, facies associations, types of bounding surface, parasequence set distribution and position within the sequence. Stacking trends of parasequence sets may be observed as a shift in the sand or shale base line. These sequences reflect basinal and hinterland tectonics with a subordinate climate and sea-level cycle signature. The initial development of the northern Galilee Basin in the upper Carboniferous reflects thermal subsidence that characterised the underlying Drummond Basin. This subsidence is overprinted by the commencement of foreland-basin tectonics associated with extension in the Bowen Basin. The foreland tectonics waned before a major regional uplift occurred in the northern Galilee Basin in the middle Permian. This uplift is associated with an early phase of the Hunter–Bowen Orogeny. A quiescent period where accommodation is controlled by sea-level changes is reflected in extensive development of mires. Renewed episodic contraction overprinted on thermal sag subsidence in the Lower Triassic reflects far-field tectonics associated with the Hunter–Bowen Orogeny. In the Upper Triassic, an end-phase event of the Hunter–Bowen Orogeny inverted the Galilee Basin.

Quantification of architectural variability and controls in an Upper Oligocene to Lower Miocene carbonate ramp, Browse Basin, Australia

Integration of seismic geomorphology and trajectory analysis of the Oligocene through Lower Miocene distally-steepened carbonate ramp system in the subsurface Browse Basin of the Northwest Shelf of Australia introduces a new way to parameterize carbonate slope channel systems and their stability, and sheds light on how basinward sediment transport is influenced by allogenic and autogenic controls. Seismic geomorphologic analysis identified large-scale prograding clinoforms with an extensive slope channel system and slope angles of up to 12°. Clinoforms have an average slope angle of 8°, a height of ∼500 m, and prograded 9 km during the Upper Oligocene through the Lower Miocene. Relative sea level changes overprinted the effect of intermediate-scale and small-scale antecedent topography, and determined progradation, aggradation and slope angles of the system. We introduce cumulative channel cross sectional area (CCCSA) as the product of number of slope channels, slope channel depth, and slope channel width. CCCSA quantifies the capability of the slope channel system to transport sediment basinward and highlights phases of autogenic slope system re-organization in response to changes in relative sea level. Abruptly increasing values of CCCSA correlate with slope sediment bypass through the incision of new slope channels during system re-organization phases at slope angles of 10°. Thus, we propose that CCCSA can be used as a proxy for slope system stability. Incision of new slope channels into the ramp margin created strike-parallel variability of the ramp margin trajectory. Our seismically-derived relative sea level curve and subsidence rates of 9–30 m/Myr indicate a good preservation of the subsidence and sea level signal in the data.

Mid-Pleistocene climate transition: Characteristic, mechanism and perspective

Milankovich theory suggested that orbitally induced summer insolation change at high-latitude region of Northern Hemisphere played a key role in driving the ice cycles during the Pleistocene. However, a significant shift of the Pleistocence climate from 41-ka to 100-ka cycles (namely mid-Pleistocene transition, MPT) cannot be simply attributed to the astronomical forcing due to insignificant insolation change induced by eccentricity forcing. Here we summarized multiple proxies generated from the ocean and land to address Pleistocene climate changes such as global ice volume, sea surface temperature, sea level, aridity of dust sources, and monsoon-related hydrological cycles. The temporal and spatial characteristics of the MPT phenomenon, in terms of the timing, duration, amplitudes and frequencies, were addressed using spectral and wavelet results. Most records reveal that the MPT was commenced as the onset of the ~100-ka cycles at ~1.2 Ma, and ended by the establishment of the dominant 100-ka cycles at ~0.7 Ma. However, some hydroclimatic proxies from the Mediterranean Sea, South China Sea and Chinese caves show a relatively strong 23-ka cycles during the middle to late Pleistocence. Such a difference may be attributable to varied sensitivity of proxy indicators to the insolation and glacial forcing. Globally, temperature and sea level signals that are affected by changing ice volume usually demonstrate a distinctive and consistent MPT. By contrast, regional hydroclimatic proxies at mid-to-low latitudes are likely dominated by the precession cycles (i.e. high-resolution, absolutely dated Chinese speleothem records). The MPT associated with the onset of ~100-ka cycles has inspired the paleocommunities to address its driving mechanism from both data and model perspectives. Several hypotheses have been proposed to explain the MPT in the past two decades, including nonlinear response to external forcing and complicated internal feedbacks. The nonlinear response to the astronomical forcing including eccentricity (100-ka cycle), interplay between obliquity (41-ka cycle) and precession (23- and 19-ka cycles) can produce the 100-ka ice-age cycles. However, model results suggest that the MPT and subsequent ″100 ka world″ are likely caused by changes in atmospheric CO2 concentration, bedrock exposure or ocean circulations. Taking these different hypotheses together, it was suggested that the solar insolation caused by changing Earth′s orbital parameters as external forcing, drives the glacial-interglacial climate cycles, whilst the nonlinear responses to atmospheric CO2 decrease and to different regolith boundary conditions as internal feedbacks have played key roles in triggering the climate transition and amplifying the glacial-interglacial oscillations. While most proxies from the land and ocean demonstrate a remarkable MPT from 41- to 100-ka cycles, regional high-resolution proxy records indicated that hydroclimatic changes at mid-to-low latitudes exhibit insignificant MPT and weak ~100-ka cycles after the MPT. In the future, more data assimilation should be focused on the hydroclimatic changes particularly in monsoon-affected regions to decipher the diverse responses in a regional scale. Meanwhile, simulations using high-resolution regional climate system models should be performed to quantify the responses of different climate parameters to external forcing and internal feedback. Through intensively data-model comparison, new insights into past climate variability and dynamics will permit a better projection of future climate change under the global warming context.

Autogenic Sedimentation in Clastic Stratigraphy

Internally generated, or autogenic, terrestrial and marine sediment-transport dynamics can produce depositional patterns similar to those associated with climatic, tectonic, or sea level changes. A central challenge in accurately interpreting the sedimentary archive is determining what scales and types of deposits reflect autogenic controls on sedimentation in different environments. Autogenic sediment-transport dynamics commonly result from intermittent sediment storage in transient landforms, which produces episodic, spatially discontinuous sedimentation across a basin. The transition from localized, variable sedimentation to even, basin-wide sedimentation marks the shift from stochastic landscape dynamics to deterministic deposition responding to the long-term balance between sediment supply and the creation of space to accommodate sediment. This threshold can be measured in a wide variety of stratigraphic successions and has important bearing on whether climatic, tectonic, or sea level signals can be recognized in physical sedimentary deposits.

Sea level modelling in the Baltic and the North Sea: The respective role of different parts of the forcing

The effects of winds, tides, sea level pressure and storm surges on sea levels are quantified in a regional model for the North Sea and The Baltic Sea. The sea level variability in the two different basins have different primary drivers. The variability in the North Sea is mostly tidal, while most of the variability in the Baltic Sea is wind driven. A factorization technique is used to separate the effects of the different forcings, as well as the effects of interactions between different forcings. The interactions are found to have a positive feedback on the sea level variability in the Baltic Sea, and to be mostly damping in the North Sea. How sea level signals are transmitted through the domain is also studied using transfer function, and the transmission between the basins is found to be strongly damped for high frequency variability. Lastly, the effects of the different forcings on the sea level distributions in the model are also quantified, and large differences are found between the two basins.

Improving sea level simulation in Mediterranean regional climate models

For now, the question about future sea level change in the Mediterranean remains a challenge. Previous climate modelling attempts to estimate future sea level change in the Mediterranean did not meet a consensus. The low resolution of CMIP-type models prevents an accurate representation of important small scales processes acting over the Mediterranean region. For this reason among others, the use of high resolution regional ocean modelling has been recommended in literature to address the question of ongoing and future Mediterranean sea level change in response to climate change or greenhouse gases emissions. Also, it has been shown that east Atlantic sea level variability is the dominant driver of the Mediterranean variability at interannual and interdecadal scales. However, up to now, long-term regional simulations of the Mediterranean Sea do not integrate the full sea level information from the Atlantic, which is a substantial shortcoming when analysing Mediterranean sea level response. In the present study we analyse different approaches followed by state-of-the-art regional climate models to simulate Mediterranean sea level variability. Additionally we present a new simulation which incorporates improved information of Atlantic sea level forcing at the lateral boundary. We evaluate the skills of the different simulations in the frame of long-term hindcast simulations spanning from 1980 to 2012 analysing sea level variability from seasonal to multidecadal scales. Results from the new simulation show a substantial improvement in the modelled Mediterranean sea level signal. This confirms that Mediterranean mean sea level is strongly influenced by the Atlantic conditions, and thus suggests that the quality of the information in the lateral boundary conditions (LBCs) is crucial for the good modelling of Mediterranean sea level. We also found that the regional differences inside the basin, that are induced by circulation changes, are model-dependent and thus not affected by the LBCs. Finally, we argue that a correct configuration of LBCs in the Atlantic should be used for future Mediterranean simulations, which cover hindcast period, but also for scenarios.

Robustness of observation‐based decadal sea level variability in the Indo‐Pacific Ocean

AbstractWe examine the consistency of Indo‐Pacific decadal sea level variability in 10 gridded, observation‐based sea level products for the 1960–2010 period. Decadal sea level variations are robust in the Pacific, with more than 50% of variance explained by decadal modulation of two flavors of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (classical ENSO and Modoki). Amplitude of decadal sea level variability is weaker in the Indian Ocean than in the Pacific. All data sets indicate a transmission of decadal sea level signals from the western Pacific to the northwest Australian coast through the Indonesian throughflow. The southern tropical Indian Ocean sea level variability is associated with decadal modulations of ENSO in reconstructions but not in reanalyses or in situ data set. The Pacific‐independent Indian Ocean decadal sea level variability is not robust but tends to be maximum in the southwestern tropical Indian Ocean. The inconsistency of Indian Ocean decadal variability across the sea level products calls for caution in making definitive conclusions on decadal sea level variability in this basin.

Processes involved in the second-year warming of the 2015 El Niño event as derived from an intermediate ocean model

The tropical Pacific experienced a sustained warm sea surface condition that started in 2014 and a very strong El Nino event in 2015. One striking feature of this event was the horseshoe-like pattern of positive subsurface thermal anomalies that was sustained in the western-central equatorial Pacific throughout 2014–2015. Observational data and an intermediate ocean model are used to describe the sea surface temperature (SST) evolution during 2014–2015. Emphasis is placed on the processes involved in the 2015 El Nino event and their relationships with SST anomalies, including remote effects associated with the propagation and reflection of oceanic equatorial waves (as indicated in sea level (SL) signals) at the boundaries and local effects of the positive subsurface thermal anomalies. It is demonstrated that the positive subsurface thermal anomaly pattern that was sustained throughout 2014–2015 played an important role in maintaining warm SST anomalies in the equatorial Pacific. Further analyses of the SST budget revealed the dominant processes contributing to SST anomalies during 2014–2015. These analyses provide an improved understanding of the extent to which processes associated with the 2015 El Nino event are consistent with current El Nino and Southern Oscillation theories.

Acceleration in European Mean Sea Level? A New Insight Using Improved Tools

Watson, P.J., 2017. Acceleration in European mean sea-level? A new insight using improved tools.Research into sea-level rise has taken on particular prominence in more recent times owing to the global threat posed by climate change and the fact that mean sea level and temperature remain the key proxies by which we can measure changes to the climate system. Under various climate change scenarios, it has been estimated that the threat posed by the effects of sea-level rise might lead to annual damage costs across Europe on the order of €25 billion by the 2080s. European mean sea-level records are among the best time series data available globally by which to detect the presence of necessary accelerations forecast by physics-based projection models to elevate current rates of global sea-level rise (≈3 mm/y) to anywhere in the vicinity of 10–20 mm/y by 2100. The analysis in this paper is based on a recently developed analytical package titled “msltrend,” specifically designed to enhance estimates of trend, real-time velocity, and acceleration in the relative mean sea-level signal derived from long annual average ocean water level time series. Key findings are that at the 95% confidence level, no consistent or compelling evidence (yet) exists that recent rates of rise are higher or abnormal in the context of the historical records available across Europe, nor is there any evidence that geocentric rates of rise are above the global average. It is likely a further 20 years of data will distinguish whether recent increases are evidence of the onset of climate change–induced acceleration.

On the Drivers and Predictability of Seasonal-to-Interannual Variations in Regional Sea Level

Abstract Observations and eddy-permitting ocean model simulations are used to evaluate the drivers of sea level variability associated with 15 modes of climate variability covering the Atlantic, Pacific, Indian, and Southern Oceans. Sea level signals are decomposed into barotropic, steric, and inverted barometer contributions. Forcings are decomposed into surface winds, buoyancy fluxes, and Ekman pumping. Seasonal-to-interannual sea level variability in the low latitudes is governed almost entirely by the thermosteric response to wind forcing associated with tropical modes of climate variability. In the extratropics, changes to dynamic sea level associated with atmospheric modes of variability include a substantial barotropic response to wind forcing, particularly over the continental shelf seas. However, wind-driven steric changes are also important in some locations. On interannual time scales, wind-forced steric changes dominate, although heat and freshwater fluxes are important in the northwest Atlantic, where low-frequency sea level variations are associated with changes in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. Using the version 3 of the Met Office Decadal Prediction System (DePreSys3), the predictability of large-scale dynamic sea level anomalies on seasonal-to-interannual time scales is evaluated. For the first year of the hindcast simulations, DePreSys3 exhibits skill exceeding persistence over large regions of the Pacific, Atlantic, and Indian Oceans. Skill is particularly high in the tropical Indo-Pacific because of the accurate initialization and propagation of thermocline depth anomalies associated with baroclinic adjustments to remote wind forcing. Skill in the extratropics is hindered by the limited predictability of wind anomalies associated with modes of atmospheric variability that dominate local and/or barotropic responses.

Response to Comment on "Sensitivity of seafloor bathymetry to climate-driven fluctuations in mid-ocean ridge magma supply".

Tolstoy reports the existence of a characteristic 100 thousand year (ky) period in the bathymetry of fast-spreading seafloor but does not argue that sea level change is a first-order control on seafloor morphology worldwide. Upon evaluating the overlap between tectonic and Milankovitch periodicities across spreading rates, we reemphasize that fast-spreading ridges are the best potential recorders of a sea level signature in seafloor bathymetry.

Dominant role of winds near Sri Lanka in driving seasonal sea level variations along the west coast of India

AbstractThe strong seasonal cycle of sea level along the west coast of India (WCI) has important consequences for ecosystem and fisheries, and the Lakshadweep high/low in the southeast Arabian Sea is important for fisheries and the Indian summer monsoon. Previous studies suggested that WCI sea level variability is primarily driven by remote wind forcing from the Bay of Bengal and equatorial Indian Ocean through coastal Kelvin wave propagation. Using a linear ocean model, we demonstrate that wind forcing in a relatively small region around the southern tip of India and east of Sri Lanka contribute to ~60% of this variability. Wind variations from the rest of the Bay and the equator only account respectively for ~20% and ~10%. Sea level signals forced by the “southern tip” winds extend westward into the eastern Arabian Sea through Rossby wave propagation, with more than 50% contribution in the Lakshadweep high/low region.

Decadal sea level variability in the East China Sea linked to the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation

In view of coastal community's need for adapting to sea level rise (SLR), understanding and predicting regional variability on decadal to longer time scales still remain a challenging issue in SLR research. Here, we have examined the low-frequency sea level signals in the East China Sea (ECS) from the 50-year hindcast of a non-Boussinesq ocean model in comparison with data sets from altimeters, tide-gauges, and steric sea level produced by in-situ profiles. It is shown that the mean sea levels in the ECS represent significant decadal fluctuations over the past 50 years, with a multi-decadal trend shift since the mid-1980s compared to the preceding 30 years. The decadal fluctuations in sea level are more closely linked to the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO) rather than the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, which reflects the multi-decadal trend shift. A composite analysis indicates that wind patterns associated with the NPGO is shown to control the decadal variability of the western subtropical North Pacific. A positive NPGO corresponds to cyclonic wind stress curl anomaly in the western subtropical regions that results in a higher sea level in the ECS, particularly along the continental shelf, and lower sea levels off the ECS. The reverse occurs in years of negative NPGO.