Reduced Sea Ice Research Articles

Trends in hepatic cadmium concentrations in marine bird species from the Canadian Arctic

Cadmium (Cd) is a trace element of toxicological concern that has been monitored in marine birds inhabiting the Canadian Arctic since 1975. Despite nearly 50 years of monitoring, research to date has largely evaluated single species, locations, or time points, and there is as of yet no holistic overview that jointly considers all available Cd data. We addressed this information gap by combining and analyzing most of the existing data on hepatic Cd concentrations in marine birds from the Canadian Arctic. Using data collected between 1975 and 2018 from eight seabird species from 12 Arctic breeding colonies, we examined temporal, spatial, and interspecific variation in hepatic Cd levels, and we evaluated possible drivers of marine bird Cd loads. Hepatic Cd concentrations ranged from 1.6 to 124 μg/g dry weight across species, and were highest in thick-billed murres (Uria lomvia) and king eiders (Somateria spectabilis), and lowest in black guillemots (Cepphus grylle), black-legged kittiwakes (Rissa tridactyla), and long-tailed ducks (Clangula hyemalis). All sites with multiple years of data showed interannual fluctuations in Cd, which were correlated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index and with the previous year's June sea ice coverage, where marine birds exhibited higher Cd concentrations in positive NAO years and following years with lower sea ice coverage. Climate change is likely to shift the NAO to being more negative and to reduce sea ice coverage, and our results thus identify various ways by which climate change could alter Cd concentrations in marine birds in the Canadian Arctic. Understanding variations in marine bird contaminant burdens, and how these may be alters by other stressors such as climate change, is important for long-term marine bird conservation efforts.

Atmospheric Circulation Drivers of Extreme High Water Level Events at Foggy Island Bay, Alaska

The northern coast of Alaska is experiencing significant climatic change enhancing hazards from reduced sea ice and increased coastal erosion. This same region is home to offshore oil/gas activities. Foggy Island Bay is one region along the Beaufort Sea coast with planned offshore oil/gas development that will need to account for the changing climate. High water levels impact infrastructure through coastal erosion and flooding hazards. In this study, 21 high water level events exceeding the top 95th percentile were identified at the gauge in Prudhoe Bay, Alaska (adjacent to Foggy Island Bay) over 1990–2018. All 21 events, and many non-extreme days with elevated water levels, were associated with strong westerly winds according to station records. Storm systems were generally found to be a key driver of westerly winds in the region according to downscaled reanalysis and storm track data. A dynamically downscaled global climate model projection from CMIP5 indicated that days with westerly wind events may become more frequent as storms strengthen and have longer durations by 2100 in the Foggy Island Bay region. Coupled with the anticipated continued decline in sea ice, the northern coast of Alaska may experience more frequent high water events over the next ~80 years.

Satellite-Derived Photosynthetically Available Radiation at the Coastal Arctic Seafloor

Climate change has affected the Arctic Ocean (AO) and its marginal seas significantly. The reduction of sea ice in the Arctic region has altered the magnitude of photosynthetically available radiation (PAR) entering the water column, impacting primary productivity. Increasing cloudiness in the atmosphere and rising turbidity in the coastal waters of the Arctic region are considered as the major factors that counteract the effect of reduced sea ice on underwater PAR. Additionally, extreme solar zenith angles and sea-ice cover in the AO increase the complexity of retrieving PAR. In this study, a PAR algorithm based on radiative transfer in the atmosphere and satellite observations is implemented to evaluate the effect of these factors on PAR in the coastal AO. To improve the performance of the algorithm, a flag is defined to identify pixels containing open-water, sea-ice or cloud. The use of flag enabled selective application of algorithms to compute the input parameters for the PAR algorithm. The PAR algorithm is validated using in situ measurements from various coastal sites in the Arctic and sub-Arctic seas. The algorithm estimated daily integrated PAR above the sea surface with an uncertainty of 19% in summer. The uncertainty increased to 24% when the algorithm was applied year-round. The PAR values at the seafloor were estimated with an uncertainty of 76%, with 36% of the samples under sea ice and/or cloud cover. The robust performance of the PAR algorithm in the pan-Arctic region throughout the year will help to effectively study the temporal and spatial variability of PAR in the Arctic coastal waters. The calculated PAR data are used to quantify the changing trend in PAR at the seafloor in the coastal AO with depth < 100 m using MODIS-Aqua data from 2003 to 2020. The general trends calculated using the pixels with average PAR > 0.415 mol m−2 day−1 at the seafloor during summer indicate that the annual average of PAR entering the water column in the coastal AO between 2003 and 2020 increased by 23%. Concurrently, due to increased turbidity, the attenuation in the water column increased by 22%. The surge in incident PAR in the water column due to retreating sea ice first led to increased PAR observed at the seafloor (∼12% between 2003 and 2014). However, in the last decade, the rapid increase in light attenuation of the water column has restricted the increase in average annual PAR reaching the bottom in the coastal AO.

Origin of the Warm Arctic–Cold North American Pattern on the Intraseasonal Time Scale

Abstract The warm Arctic–cold continent pattern (WACC) of near-surface air temperature variability has often been associated with the connection between Arctic sea ice reduction and cold weather over the midlatitude continents. Whether the existence of this pattern is due to variability of sea ice or is caused by atmospheric internal dynamics is subject to debate. Based on a long integration of a primitive equation atmospheric model (SGCM), this study examines the origin of the warm Arctic–cold North American pattern (WACNA), which is characterized by a pair of opposite surface air temperature anomalies over the high-latitude Chukchi–Bering Sea region and the North American continent, in boreal winter on the intraseasonal time scale. The model atmosphere is maintained by a time-independent forcing, so that atmospheric internal dynamics is the only source of variability. It is found that the SGCM model simulates well the behavior of the observed WACNA pattern. The WACNA pattern develops by interacting with the time-mean flow and synoptic-scale transient eddies. Two pathways of Rossby wave propagation are associated with WACNA. The northern pathway originates from eastern Siberia moving eastward across the Bering Strait to Canada, and the southern pathway is rooted in the subtropical waveguide propagating across the eastern North Pacific. Our simulation of this pattern implies that tropospheric dynamics alone can generate the WACNA, and the predictability associated with this pattern is likely limited by its internal dynamics nature. Significance Statement The warm Arctic–cold continent pattern of temperature variability has often been associated with the connection between Arctic sea ice reduction and cold weather over the midlatitude continents, which implies possible impacts of polar warming on midlatitude climate. There has been debate on whether the existence of this pattern depends on variability of sea ice or can be caused by processes within the atmosphere. In this study, we use a simple atmospheric model, which has a constant forcing; thus, atmospheric internal dynamics is the only source of variability. We show that atmospheric internal dynamics alone can generate the warm Arctic–cold North American pattern. The result has implications for our understanding of the impact of global warming.

Decadal Scale Variability of Larsen Ice Shelf Melt Captured by Antarctic Peninsula Ice Core

In this study, we used the stable water isotope record (δ18O) from an ice core drilled in Palmer Land, southern Antarctic Peninsula (AP). Utilizing δ18O we identified two climate regimes during the satellite era. During the 1979–1998 positive interdecadal Pacific oscillation (IPO) phase, a low-pressure system north of the Weddell Sea drove southeasterly winds that are associated with an increase in warm air mass intrusion onto the Larsen shelves, which melted and a decreased sea ice concentration in the Weddell Sea/increase in the Bellingshausen Sea. This climate setting is associated with anomaly low δ18O values (compared with the latter IPO period). There is significantly more melt along the northern AP ice shelf margins and on the Larsen D and southern Larsen C during the 1979–1998 IPO positive phase. The IPO positive climatic setting was coincidental with the Larsen A ice shelf collapse. In contrast, during the IPO negative phase (1999–2011), northerly winds caused a reduction in sea ice in the Bellingshausen Sea/Drake Passage region. Moreover, a Southern Ocean north of the Weddell Sea high-pressure system caused low-latitude warm humid air over the tip and east of the AP, a setting that is associated with increased northern AP snowfall, a high δ18O anomaly, and less prone to Larsen ice shelf melt.

Molecular characteristics, sources and influencing factors of isoprene and monoterpenes secondary organic aerosol tracers in the marine atmosphere over the Arctic Ocean

Biogenic secondary organic aerosols (BSOA) are important components of the remote marine atmosphere. However, the response of BSOA changes to sea ice reduction over the Arctic Ocean remains unclear. Here we investigated isoprene and monoterpenes secondary organic aerosol (SOAI and SOAM) tracers in three years of summer aerosol samples collected from the Arctic Ocean atmosphere. The results indicated that methyltetrols were the most abundant SOAI tracers, while the main oxidation products of monoterpenes varied over the years owing to different aerosol aging. The results of the principal component analysis (PCA)-generalized additive model (GAM) combined with correlation analysis suggested that SOAI tracers were mainly generated by the oxidation of isoprene from marine emissions, while SOAM tracers were probably more influenced by terrestrial transport. Estimation of secondary organic carbon (SOC) indicated that monoterpenes oxidation contributed more than isoprene and that sea ice changes had a relatively small effect on biogenic SOC concentration levels. Our study quantified the contribution of influencing factors to the atmospheric concentration of BSOA tracers in the Arctic Ocean, and showed that there were differences in the sources of precursors for different BSOA. Hence, our findings have contributed to a better understanding of the characteristics, sources and formation of SOA in the atmosphere of the Arctic Ocean.

Remote sensing, snow modelling, survey data and Indigenous Knowledge show how snow and sea-ice conditions affect Peary caribou (Rangifer tarandus pearyi) distribution and inter-island and island–mainland movements

Accelerated warming of the Arctic has reduced sea ice and has increased the occurrence of winter extreme events like rain-on-snow and storms that impact snow-cover densification, affecting Peary caribou (Rangifer tarandus pearyi) seasonal movements and grazing conditions. We used caribou movements between Banks, Melville and Victoria islands and mainland Canada, documented from Indigenous Knowledge, to assess whether spatiotemporal trends in sea-ice anomalies (1983–2019) can be used as an indicator of caribou movement. We used the SNOWPACK model to evaluate how foraging conditions (as indexed by simulated snow properties) contribute to the prediction of caribou presence. Our results suggest that changes in sea-ice anomalies over time have impacted caribou crossings between islands: caribou no longer use areas with less sea ice whilst they continue to use areas with more sea ice. Our model evaluation shows that, when the simulated snow conditions are paired with other environmental variables, the ability of models to predict Peary caribou occurrence on land was enhanced across Banks and Melville islands. Overall, the land models suggest that caribou are more likely to occupy areas with lower density of snow accumulation and a majority of forb tundra with dwarf shrubs for Banks Island and cryptogam tundra, rush and grass for the Melville Island Complex. Our results suggest that future work monitoring changes in sea-ice and snow conditions will be important for understanding the impact of climate change on the distribution of Peary caribou in the western Arctic.

Weakening of Indian Summer Monsoon Synoptic Activity in Response to Polar Sea Ice Melt Induced by Albedo Reduction in a Climate Model

AbstractThe effect of polar sea ice melt on low latitude climate is little known. To understand the response of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) synoptic activity to the sea ice melt, we have run a suite of coupled and uncoupled climate model simulations. In one set of simulations, the albedo of sea ice is reduced so that it would melt due to increased absorption of solar radiation. The coupled model simulation with a reduced sea ice albedo resulted in an almost complete melting of the sea ice in summer in both hemispheres. A high‐resolution (50 km) atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) is forced with the climatological annual cycles of sea surface temperature (SST) and sea ice concentrations (SIC) from the coupled model outputs to better resolve synoptic scale variability. In the high‐resolution AGCM simulations forced with SST and SIC from the sea ice melt experiments, the ISM circulation weakened substantially, and the monsoon low‐pressure systems (LPS) activity experienced an overall decline of 23%, with a widespread weakening in the south and a moderate strengthening over the north, in response to a decline of 78% (24%) in SIC over the Arctic (Antarctic) in the June–September season. The changes in the LPS activity in response to polar sea ice melt are found to be mostly driven by the changes in low‐level absolute vorticity and vertical shear over the Bay of Bengal.

Distinct Upward Propagation of the Westerly QBO in Winter 2015/16 and Its Relationship With Brewer‐Dobson Circulation

AbstractA westerly phase of the quasi‐biennial oscillation (QBO) was disrupted in 2015/16. Previous studies have primarily focused on the cause of the localized negative momentum forcing, initiating the QBO disruption. However, the upward displacement of the westerly QBO followed by the negative momentum forcing, clearly observed in 2015/16, has received less attention. This study shows that the distinct upward propagation of the westerly winds during the 2015/16 QBO disruption was contributed by the strong Brewer‐Dobson circulation (BDC). Strong Rossby waves with wavenumber 1 propagating from the troposphere mainly drove the strong BDC. Potential contributions of El Niño and Barents–Kara sea ice reduction to Rossby waves are also discussed.

Split westerlies over Europe in the early Little Ice Age

The Little Ice Age (LIA; ca. 1450–1850 C.E.) is the best documented cold period of the past millennium, characterized by high-frequency volcanism, low solar activity, and high variability of Arctic sea-ice cover. Past studies of LIA Atlantic circulation changes have referenced the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), but recent studies have noted that LIA climate patterns appear to possess complexity not captured by an NAO analogue. Here, we present a new precipitation-sensitive stalagmite record from northern Italy that covers the past 800 years. We show that in the early LIA (1470–1610 C.E.), increased atmospheric ridging over northern Europe split the climatological westerlies away from central and northern Europe, possibly caused by concurrent Artic sea-ice reduction. With ongoing ice melting in the northern high latitudes and decreasing solar irradiance in the coming years, the early LIA may potentially serve as an analogue for European hydroclimatic conditions in the coming decades.

Roman Warm Period and Late Antique Little Ice Age in an Earth System Model Large Ensemble

AbstractChanges in climate during the Roman Warm Period (RWP, 1–250 CE) and Late Antique Little Ice Age (LALIA, 536–660 CE) play a critical role in early societal evolution, but the climate differences between these two periods and the possible causes of the changes remain poorly explored. Here we use the LOch–Vecode‐Ecbilt‐CLio‐agIsM model Large Common Era Ensemble with 70 members to examine the climate change over these two intervals and compare the results of this ensemble with the latest temperature reconstructions from the Past Global Changes 2k network and the transient simulation for the past 2,000 years from the Community Earth System Model. Results from both proxy reconstructions and climate model simulations show warming in mid‐to‐high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere (NH) during the RWP compared with the LALIA. This is likely linked with the increased radiative forcing associated with weaker volcanic eruptions in the RWP, which results in reduced sea ice area and pronounced high‐latitude warming through surface albedo and lapse‐rate feedbacks. This increases the upper ocean heat content over centennial time scales to maintain warming over the NH high‐latitude regions. Moreover, the RWP has drier (wetter) conditions in the eastern (western) equatorial Pacific than the LALIA, and this is related to the zonal sea surface temperature gradient in the equatorial Pacific through modification of the zonal circulation.

Atmospheric Energy Sources for Winter Sea Ice Variability over the North Barents–Kara Seas

Abstract Anomalous poleward transport of atmospheric energy can lead to sea ice loss during boreal winter over the Arctic, especially in the North Barents–Kara Seas (NBKS), by strengthening downward longwave radiation (DLW). However, compared with the extensive studies of latent energy sources, those of sensible energy sources are currently insufficient. Therefore, we focus on the intraseasonal sea ice loss events from the perspectives of both energy forms. First, the contributions of latent and sensible energy to DLW and sea ice reduction are quantified using the lagged composite method, a multiple linear regression model, and an ice toy model. Second, a Lagrangian approach is performed to examine sources of latent and sensible energy. Third, possible underlying mechanisms are proposed. We find that the positive anomalies of latent and sensible energy account for approximately 56% and 28% of the increase in DLW, respectively, and the DLW anomalies can theoretically explain a maximum of 58% of sea ice reduction. Geographically, the North Atlantic, the Norwegian, North, and Baltic Seas, western Europe, and the northeastern Pacific are major atmospheric energy source regions. Additionally, while the contributions of latent energy sources decrease with increasing distance from the NBKS, those of sensible energy sources are concentrated in the midlatitudes. Mechanistically, latent energy can influence sea ice decline, both directly by increasing the Arctic precipitable water and indirectly by warming the Arctic atmosphere through a remote conversion into sensible energy. Our results indicate that the Rossby waves induced by latent heating over the western tropical Pacific contribute to anomalous energy sources at midlatitude Pacific and Atlantic both dynamically and thermodynamically. Significance Statement Winter sea ice retreat in the Arctic has been attributed to increasing poleward atmospheric energy transport. While latent energy sources are extensively examined in previous studies, studies on sensible energy sources remain limited. Considering both atmospheric energy forms, we detected energy sources for the intraseasonal sea ice-loss events in the winter NBKS. Geographically, the North Atlantic, the Norwegian, North, and Baltic Seas, western Europe, and the northeastern Pacific are predominant energy source regions. Mechanistically, Rossby waves in the Northern Hemisphere triggered by tropical latent heating contribute to warm and moist air intrusions into the Arctic. This work suggests that latent energy can impact Arctic sea ice directly by moistening the atmosphere and indirectly by warming the Arctic atmosphere through remote conversion into sensible energy.

Sclerochronological records of environmental variability and bivalve growth in the Pacific Arctic

The Pacific Arctic region has experienced, and is projected to continue experiencing, rapid climate change. Large uncertainties exist in our understanding of the impact these physical changes have on the region’s ecology. This is, in part, due to the lack of long-term data. Here we investigate bivalve mollusc growth increment width chronologies (sclerochronologies) to develop a long-term biological data series in an Arctic species and address the hypothesis that benthic production in the Pacific Arctic region is in decline with implications for predators (e.g., walrus, whales, seals, and sea ducks). Growth increments formed in the shells of two bivalve mollusc species, Astarte borealis and Liocyma fluctuosa, were examined using conventional sclerochronological techniques. The A. borealis and L. fluctuosa samples exhibited measured longevities of >148 and >18 years, respectively, in the coastal waters of Alaska’s Chukchi Sea. Dendrochronology crossdating techniques facilitated the development of two robust (expressed population signal > 0.85) independent growth increment width chronologies. These chronologies provide evidence of the growth conditions through time for each species (1985–2015 for A. borealis and 1997–2014 for L. fluctuosa). Linear regression analyses identified that both species grew more rapidly in years with warmer sea surface temperature and lower sea ice concentration. The results provide evidence that benthic ecosystems are benefiting from the warmer conditions and reduced sea ice that have accompanied recent Arctic climate trends. This result is encouraging for benthic predators in the eastern Chukchi Sea as it alleviates the concern that their benthic prey has already become food limited by weakened pelagic-benthic coupling. More broadly, this initial A. borealis chronology is among the longest biological data series for any Arctic species and highlights the feasibility of multicentennial biological data for the Arctic.

Comparison between Large-Scale Circulation Anomalies Associated with Interannual Variability and Decadal Change of Summer Arctic Sea Ice

Abstract Arctic sea ice in summer shows both interannual and long-term variations, and atmospheric circulation anomalies are known to play an important role. This study compares the summertime large-scale circulation anomalies associated with Arctic sea ice on interannual and decadal time scales. The results indicate that the circulation anomalies associated with decreased sea ice on an interannual time scale are characterized by a barotropic anticyclonic anomaly in the central Arctic, and the thermodynamic process is important for the circulation–sea ice coupling. On one hand, the descending adiabatic warming in low levels associated with the central Arctic anticyclonic anomaly leads to decreased sea ice by enhancing the downwelling longwave radiation. On the other hand, the anticyclonic anomaly also induces more moisture in low levels. The enhanced moisture and temperature (coupled with each other) further favor the reduction of sea ice by emitting more downwelling longwave radiation. By contrast, associated with the decadal sea ice decline, there is an anticyclonic anomaly over Greenland and a cyclonic anomaly over northern Siberia, and the wind-driven sea ice drift dominates the sea ice decline. The transpolar circulation anomalies between the anticyclonic and cyclonic anomalies promote transport of the ice away from the coasts of Siberia toward the North Pole, and drive the ice out of the Arctic Ocean to the North Atlantic. These circulation anomalies also induce sea ice decline through thermodynamic process, but it is not as significant as that on an interannual time scale.

Warm and moist air intrusions into the winter Arctic: a Lagrangian view on the near-surface energy budgets

Abstract. In this study, warm and moist air intrusions (WaMAIs) over the Arctic Ocean sectors of Barents Sea, Kara Sea, Laptev Sea, East Siberian Sea, Chukchi Sea, and Beaufort Sea in 40 recent winters (from 1979 to 2018) are identified from the ERA5 reanalysis using both Eulerian and Lagrangian views. The analysis shows that WaMAIs, fueled by Arctic blocking, cause a relative surface warming and hence a sea-ice reduction by exerting positive anomalies of net thermal irradiances and turbulent fluxes on the surface. Over Arctic Ocean sectors with land-locked sea ice in winter, such as Laptev Sea, East Siberian Sea, Chukchi Sea, and Beaufort Sea, the total surface energy-budget is dominated by net thermal irradiance. From a Lagrangian perspective, total water path (TWP) increases linearly with the downstream distance from the sea-ice edge over the completely ice-covered sectors, inducing almost linearly increasing net thermal irradiance and total surface energy-budget. However, over the Barents Sea, with an open ocean to the south, total net surface energy-budget is dominated by the surface turbulent flux. With the energy in the warm-and-moist air continuously transported to the surface, net surface turbulent flux gradually decreases with distance, especially within the first 2∘ north of the ice edge, inducing a decreasing but still positive total surface energy-budget. The boundary-layer energy-budget patterns over the Barents Sea can be categorized into three classes: radiation-dominated, turbulence-dominated, and turbulence-dominated with cold dome, comprising about 52 %, 40 %, and 8 % of all WaMAIs, respectively. Statistically, turbulence-dominated cases with or without cold dome occur along with 1 order of magnitude larger large-scale subsidence than the radiation-dominated cases. For the turbulence-dominated category, larger turbulent fluxes are exerted to the surface, probably because of stronger wind shear. In radiation-dominated WaMAIs, stratocumulus develops more strongly and triggers intensive cloud-top radiative cooling and related buoyant mixing that extends from cloud top to the surface, inducing a thicker well-mixed layer under the cloud. With the existence of cold dome, fewer liquid water clouds were formed, and less or even negative turbulent fluxes could reach the surface.

Reduced Sea Ice Enhances Intensification of Winter Storms over the Arctic Ocean

AbstractThe ideal environment for extratropical cyclone development includes strong vertical shear of horizontal wind and low static stability in the atmosphere. Arctic sea ice loss enhances the upward flux of energy to the lower atmosphere, reducing static stability. This suggests that Arctic sea ice loss may facilitate more intense storms over the Arctic Ocean. However, prior research into this possibility has yielded mixed results with uncertain cause and effect. This work has been limited either in scope (focusing on a few case studies) or resolution (focusing on seasonal averages). In this study, we extend this body of research by comparing the intensification rate and maximum intensity of individual cyclones to local sea ice anomalies. We find robust evidence that reduced sea ice in winter (December–March) strengthens Arctic cyclones by enhancing the surface turbulent heat fluxes and lessening static stability while also strengthening vertical shear of horizontal wind. We find weaker evidence for this connection in spring (April–June). In both seasons, lower sea ice concentration also enhances cyclone-associated precipitation. Although reduced sea ice also weakens static stability in September/October (when sea ice loss has been especially acute), this does not translate to stronger storms because of coincident weakening of wind shear. Sea ice anomalies also have little or no connection to cyclone-associated precipitation in these months. Therefore, future sea ice reductions (e.g., related to delayed autumn freeze-up) will likely enhance Arctic cyclone intensification in winter and spring, but this relationship is sensitive to simultaneous connections between sea ice and wind shear.Significance StatementSea ice is a barrier between the ocean and atmosphere, limiting the exchange of energy between them. As the amount of sea ice in the Arctic Ocean declines, the ocean can transfer more heat to the atmosphere above in fall and winter. It is theorized that this extra energy may help intensify storms that pass through the Arctic. We examine individual storms over the Arctic Ocean and what sea ice conditions they experience as they develop. We find that storms intensify more when sea ice is lower than normal in the winter season only. This relationship may contribute to stronger Arctic winter storms in the future, including heavier precipitation and stronger winds (which can enhance wave heights and coastal erosion).

Using seabird and whale distribution models to estimate spatial consumption of krill to inform fishery management

AbstractEcosystem dynamics at the northwest Antarctic Peninsula are driven by interactions between physical and biological processes. For example, baleen whale populations are recovering from commercial harvesting against the backdrop of rapid climate change, including reduced sea ice extent and changing ecosystem composition. Concurrently, the commercial harvesting of Antarctic krill is increasing, with the potential to increase the likelihood for competition with and between krill predators and the fishery. However, understanding the ecology, abundance, and spatial distribution of krill predators is often limited, outdated, or at spatial scales that do not match those desired for effective fisheries management. We update current knowledge of predator dependence on krill by integrating telemetry‐based data, at‐sea observational surveys, estimates of predator abundance, and physiological data to estimate the spatial distribution of krill consumption during the austral summer by three species ofPygoscelispenguin, 11 species of flying seabirds, one species of pinniped, and two species of baleen whale. Our models show that the majority of important areas for krill predator foraging are close to penguin breeding colonies in nearshore areas where humpback whales also regularly feed, and along the shelf‐break, though we caution that not all known krill predators are included in these analyses. We show that krill consumption is highly variable across the region, and often concentrated at fine spatial scales, emphasizing the need for the management of the local krill fishery at relevant temporal and spatial scales. We also note that krill consumption by recovering populations of krill predators provides further evidence in support of the krill surplus hypothesis, and highlight that despite less than comprehensive data, cetaceans are likely to consume a significant proportion of the krill consumed by natural predators but are not currently considered directly in the management of the krill fishery. If management of the krill fishery is to be precautionary and operate in a way that minimizes the risks to krill predator populations, it will be necessary in future analyses, to include up‐to‐date and precise abundance and consumption estimates for pack‐ice seals, finfish, squid, and other baleen whale species not currently considered.

PROCEDURE OF EXTRACTING THIN ICE AREAS IN THE SEA OF OKHOTSK USING MODIS DATA

Abstract. The latest IPCC report clearly stated that the human influence is the main reason of sea ice reduction in the Arctic. Importance of sea ice monitoring from space is increasing. In addition, the heat flux of ice in thin ice areas is strongly affected by the ice thickness difference. Therefore, ice thickness is one of the important parameters of sea ice. The authors have been studying on extracting thin ice areas using optical sensor such as MODIS for years. In this paper, the authors summarized the procedure of our study starting from comparing in-situ measurement of ice thickness with high resolution optical sensor RSI data, and finally developing the thin ice area extraction algorithm using MODIS. Estimating ice thickness from optical sensor data is not easy. However, through our study, the authors have verified the possibility of extracting thin ice areas using optical sensor data observed from satellites. In this study, the authors define “thin ice areas” as ice which thickness is less than about 30 cm with reflectance much lower than thick ice. The basic idea of the algorithm is to use the scatterplots of MODIS band 1 & 2 reflectance and extract thin ice areas using the distribution difference of thin ice against water, thick ice, clouds. Not all but most of the thin ice areas could be extracted using the algorithm.

Summertime changes in climate extremes over the peripheral Arctic regions after a sudden sea ice retreat

Abstract. The retreat of Arctic sea ice is frequently considered to be a possible driver of changes in climate extremes in the Arctic and possibly down to mid-latitudes. However, it remains unclear how the atmosphere will respond to a near-total retreat of summer Arctic sea ice, a reality that might occur in the foreseeable future. This study explores this question by conducting sensitivity experiments with two global coupled climate models run at two different horizontal resolutions to investigate the change in temperature and precipitation extremes during summer over peripheral Arctic regions following a sudden reduction in summer Arctic sea ice cover. An increase in frequency and persistence of maximum surface air temperature is found in all peripheral Arctic regions during the summer, when sea ice loss occurs. For each 1×106 km2 of Arctic sea ice extent reduction, the absolute frequency of days exceeding the surface air temperature of the climatological 90th percentile increases by ∼ 4 % over the Svalbard area, and the duration of warm spells increases by ∼ 1 d per month over the same region. Furthermore, we find that the 10th percentile of surface daily air temperature increases more than the 90th percentile, leading to a weakened diurnal cycle of surface air temperature. Finally, an increase in extreme precipitation, which is less robust than the increase in extreme temperatures, is found in all regions in summer. These findings suggest that a sudden retreat of summer Arctic sea ice clearly impacts the extremes in maximum surface air temperature and precipitation over the peripheral Arctic regions with the largest influence over inhabited islands such as Svalbard or northern Canada. Nonetheless, even with a large sea ice reduction in regions close to the North Pole, the local precipitation response is relatively small compared to internal climate variability.

Bowhead whales and whaling in the central and eastern Canadian Arctic, 1970-2021

The history of bowhead whaling and hunt management in the eastern and central Canadian Arctic is reviewed. Subsistence hunting of bowhead whales by Inuit resumed in the 1990s under co-management arrangements that were part of land-claims settlement agreements. Removals by whaling in both Canada and Greenland have been accounted for in IWC Scientific Committee assessments of the Eastern Canada–West Greenland (EC-WG) stock, but Canada, having withdrawn from IWC membership in 1982, has no legal obligation to consider IWC management advice. From 1994-2021 the total reported catch of bowheads in the central and eastern Canadian Arctic was 39 (not including struck-and-lost whales or whales that died from incidental entanglement in fishing gear). Sixteen different communities, most of which had a long history of bowhead whaling prior to the arrival of commercial whalers, took at least one bowhead over that 27-year period. More than half of the recent catches have been by the communities of Igloolik, Sanijarak, Naujaat and Coral Harbour, all in the Foxe Basin–Repulse Bay–northern Hudson Bay region where at least occasional hunting of bowheads by local people had persisted until well into the 1970s. Greenland’s reported landed catches totaled from 2009-2015, with no successful hunts reported since 2015. Well over a third of the whales landed by both countries combined have been mature females, the most valuable class in terms of potential for population increase. Several factors in addition to hunting and entanglement in fishing gear are likely affecting EC-WG bowheads, including increased exposure to killer whale predation (linked to the massive reduction in sea ice) and other changes in ecological conditions driven primarily by climate change (e.g. more industrial activity, more vessel traffic, more noise). Recent analyses suggest the EC-WG stock of bowheads has grown considerably since the end of commercial whaling, with best estimates of current abundance in the range of 6000-7000 individuals. Even though the population appears capable of sustaining present levels of removal and disturbance, it is important for monitoring efforts to continue in both Canada and Greenland, with regular Indigenous participation. Local observations and traditional knowledge can be valuable sources of information on animal health, behaviour and phenology.