Sea Basin In Central Asia Research Articles

Quantifying land change dynamics, resilience and feedback: A comparative analysis of the lake Chad basin in Africa and Aral Sea basin in Central Asia

The intricate interaction of natural and anthropogenic factors drives changes in land and water in response to societal demands and climate change. However, there has been insufficient information on the feedback effects in dryland hotspots altered by land change dynamics. This research compared two transboundary inland lakes, the Lake Chad basin (LCB) in Africa and the Aral Sea basin (ASB) in Central Asia, using remote sensing and geographic information system techniques to analyze and quantify present and future land cover dynamics, resilience, and their feedback effects. The study integrated Cellular Automata, Markov Chain, and Multilayer Perceptron models to predict LULC changes up to 2030. Descriptive statistics, ordinary least squares regression, hotspot Gi-Bin, trend analysis, and advanced geostatistical methods were utilized to identify relationships, patterns, magnitudes, and directions of observed changes in the feedback effects. From 2000 to 2030, the analysis unveils intriguing trends, including an increase in cropland from 48% to 51% and a decrease in shrubland from 18% to 15% in the LCB. The grassland increased from 21% to 22%, and the settlement expanded from 0.10 to 0.60% in the ASB. Water bodies remained stable at 1.60 % in LCB, while in ASB, it declined from 3% to 2%. These changes were significantly influenced by population, elevation, and temperature in both basins, with irrigation also playing a significant role in the ASB and slope in LCB. The study further revealed discernible shifts in normalized difference vegetation index, temperature, and precipitation linked to specific land cover conversions, suggesting alterations in surface properties and vegetation health. This study underscores the complex interplay between land cover dynamics, resilience, climate variability, and feedback mechanisms in LCB and ASB.

An approach to complex transboundary water management in Central Asia: Evolutionary cooperation in transboundary basins under the water-energy-food-ecosystem nexus

Water-related issues in transboundary basins are generally complicated by the challenges of climate change, the historical evolution of the basin characteristics, and the different interests of the riparian countries. Therefore, dealing with water-sharing and water cooperation problems among basin countries needs to be based on multi-factor system analysis in the context of regional water, energy, food (land) resources, and ecosystems. In the present study, the Aral Sea basin in Central Asia, where transboundary water problems are extremely prominent and complex, was selected as the research area. Firstly, the characteristics of the water-energy-food-ecosystem nexus of the Aral Sea basin are analyzed. Then, based on the game theory, a multi-objective game model is constructed, and the multi-objective evolutionary game process and evolutionary stable strategies (ESSs) of both the upstream and downstream countries are explored. Finally, the evolutionary stable strategy under the intervention of the basin commission is simulated. The results show that there are obvious reciprocal feedbacks among water, land, energy, and ecosystem in the Aral Sea basin, and the uneven distribution of natural resources, fragile ecosystems, and conflicting demands of multiple actors lead to the unstable evolution of the nexus. Driven by the maximization of upstream and downstream countries’ respective interests, the optimal stabilization strategy of the system cannot be realized. Whereas, the introduction of the basin commission intervention and its restraint mechanism is conducive to promoting cooperation and maximizing the overall benefits of the basin. The incentives and penalties of the basin commission have significant effects on whether the system can reach Pareto optimality, and higher incentive coefficient and penalty coefficient help the system converge to the ideal state more quickly. The evolution of the water-energy-food-ecosystem nexus based on the perspective of the whole basin can provide theoretical support for dealing with the transboundary water conflicts, and the cooperation strategy aiming at maximizing the overall benefits of the basin can provide decision-making basis for promoting transboundary water cooperation and synergistic development of the water-energy-food-ecosystem nexus.

Microplastic transport during desertification in drylands: Abundance and characterization of soil microplastics in the Amu Darya-Aral Sea basin, Central Asia

Desertification and microplastic pollution are major environmental issues that impact the function of the ecosystem and human well-being of drylands. Land desertification may influence soil microplastics' abundance, transport, and distribution, but their distribution in the dryland deserts of Central Asia's Amu Darya-Aral Sea basin is unknown. Here, we investigated the abundance and distribution of microplastics in dryland desert soils from the Amu Darya River to the Aral Sea basin in Central Asia at a spatial scale of 1000 km and soil depths ranging from 0 to 50 cm. Microplastics were found in soils from all sample locations, with abundances ranging from 182 to 17841 items kg−1 and a median of 3369. Twenty-four polymers were identified, with polyurethane (PU, 37.3%), silicone resin (SR, 17.0%), and chlorinated polyethylene (CPE, 9.8%) accounting for 64.1% of all polymer types. The abundance of microplastics was significantly higher in deep (20–50 cm) soils than in surface (0–5, 5–20 cm) soils. The main morphological characteristics of the observed microplastics were small size (20–50 μm) and irregular particles with no round edges (mean eccentricity 0.65). The abundance was significantly and positively related to soil EC and TP. According to the findings, desertification processes increase the abundance of microplastic particles in soils and promote migration to deeper soil layers. Human activities, mainly grazing, may be the region's primary cause of desertification and microplastic pollution. Our findings provide new information on the diffusion of microplastics in drylands during desertification; these findings are critical for understanding and promoting dryland plastic pollution prevention and control.

Environment problems of the Aral Sea basin in central Asia and its impact on society, economy, and regional security

Environment problems of the Aral Sea basin in central Asia and its impact on society, economy, and regional security

Ecological Assessment of Terminal Lake Basins in Central Asia under Changing Landscape Patterns

Climate change and anthropogenic activities drive the shrinkage of terminal lakes in arid areas to varying degrees. Ecological water conveyance (EWC) projects have emerged globally to restore the ecology of terminal lakes. However, there remains a lack of qualitative evaluation of the benefits of EWC on terminal lakes. This study compared the Taitema Lake Basin with the Aral Sea Basin in Central Asia, representative of terminal lake basins with and without EWC, respectively. The results show that the water area of Taitema Lake increased by 7.23 km2/year due to EWC (2000–2019), whereas that of the Aral Sea Basin decreased by 98.21% over the entire process of natural evolution (1972–2019). Land use changes before and after the EWC (1990–2019) included an increase and decrease in desert land and water bodies in the Aral Sea Basin, and a decrease and increase in desert land and arable land in the Tarim River Basin, respectively. The normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and actual evaporation (ETa) are the main factors influencing the change in the water area of the Aral Sea Basin with the changing environment, while EWC is the main factor influencing the change in the water area of Taitema Lake. The results confirm that EWC is a feasible measure for achieving ecological restoration of a terminal lake watershed in an arid area.

Insights into Variations and Potential Long-Range Transport of Atmospheric Aerosols from the Aral Sea Basin in Central Asia

The dramatic shrinkage of the Aral Sea in the past decades has inevitably led to an environmental calamity. Existing knowledge on the variations and potential transport of atmospheric aerosols from the Aral Sea Basin (ASB) is limited. To bridge this knowledge gap, this study tried to identify the variations and long-range transport of atmospheric aerosols from the ASB in recent years. The Hybrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model and Cloud–Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations (CALIPSO) data were used to gain new insight into the types, variation and long-range transport of atmospheric aerosols from the ASB. The results showed five types of tropospheric aerosols and one type of stratospheric aerosol were observed over the ASB. Polluted dust and dust were the dominant subtypes through the year. Sulfate/other was the only stratospheric aerosol detected. The occurrence frequency of aerosols over the ASB showed obvious seasonal variation. Maximum occurrence frequency of dust appeared in spring (MAM) and that of polluted dust peaked in summer (JJA). The monthly occurrence frequency of dust and polluted dust exhibited unimodal distribution. Polluted dust and dust were distributed over wide ranges from 1 km to 5 km vertically. The multi-year average thickness of polluted dust and dust layers was around 1.3 km. Their potential long-range transport in different directions mainly impacts Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan and eastern Iran, and may reach as far as the Caucasus region, part of China, Mongolia and Russia. Combining aerosol lidar, atmospheric climate models and geochemical methods is strongly suggested to gain clarity on the variations and long-range transport of atmospheric aerosols from the Aral Sea Basin.

Development of a large-scale remote sensing ecological index in arid areas and its application in the Aral Sea Basin

The Aral Sea Basin in Central Asia is an important geographical environment unit in the center of Eurasia. It is of great significance to the ecological protection and sustainable development of Central Asia to carry out dynamic monitoring and effective evaluation of the eco-environmental quality of the Aral Sea Basin. In this study, the arid remote sensing ecological index (ARSEI) for large-scale arid areas was developed, which coupled the information of the greenness index, the salinity index, the humidity index, the heat index, and the land degradation index of arid areas. The ARSEI was used to monitor and evaluate the eco-environmental quality of the Aral Sea Basin from 2000 to 2019. The results show that the greenness index, the humidity index and the land degradation index had a positive impact on the quality of the ecological environment in the Aral Sea Basin, while the salinity index and the heat index exerted a negative impact on the quality of the ecological environment. The eco-environmental quality of the Aral Sea Basin demonstrated a trend of initial improvement, followed by deterioration, and finally further improvement. The spatial variation of these changes was significant. From 2000 to 2019, grassland and wasteland (saline alkali land and sandy land) in the central and western parts of the basin had the worst ecological environment quality. The areas with poor ecological environment quality are mainly distributed in rivers, wetlands, and cultivated land around lakes. During the period from 2000 to 2019, except for the surrounding areas of the Aral Sea, the ecological environment quality in other areas of the Aral Sea Basin has been improved in general. The correlation coefficients between the change in the eco-environmental quality and the heat index and between the change in the eco-environmental quality and the humidity index were −0.593 and 0.524, respectively. Climate conditions and human activities have led to different combinations of heat and humidity changes in the eco-environmental quality of the Aral Sea Basin. However, human activities had a greater impact. The ARSEI can quantitatively and intuitively reflect the scale and causes of large-scale and long-time period changes of the eco-environmental quality in arid areas; it is very suitable for the study of the eco-environmental quality in arid areas.

Changes of vegetation and its forces driving in the Aral Sea Basin of Central Asia

Global change brings great uncertainty to the fragile ecological environment of arid area. In order to understand the driving role of climatic factors and socio-economic activity on changes, the distribution and change of vegetation in the Aral Sea basin were examined using data from remote sensing, population data sets from 2000 to 2015, transfer matrix, and the centre of gravity model. The salient results of the analysis were as follows. (1) Although the index increased slightly in the past 20 years overall, it fluctuated greatly over that time. From 2000 to 2015, the NDVI decreased in approximately 62% of the area; increased in 24%; and remained unchanged in 14%. (2) From 2000 to 2015, the geographic centre of the area under forest land to the northeast, marking the advancement of urbanization upstream. The geographic centre of grassland moved to the west. (3) The overall impact of precipitation on vegetation was greater than that of temperature. Areas showing a strong correlation were mostly concentrated in forest land; the impact of precipitation on grasslands was weak. (4) The distribution of vegetation was adversely affected by the increase in population and in GDP. The present study is of particular significance to the restoration and reconstruction of the Aral Sea basin ecosystem.

Spatial variation in major water quality types and its relationships with land cover in the middle and lower reaches of Aral Sea Basin

Water resources and environmental issues in the Aral Sea Basin of Central Asia are global concerns. In this study, the water quality variables (i.e., basic physical and chemical attributes, different forms of nutrients, other elements, cations, and anions) from 21 sampling sites in the middle and lower reaches of Aral Sea Basin were measured in 2019 to explore water environmental variations and their causes. Spatial variation in 20 water quality variables was investigated, and the representative water quality types, spatial differences, and their causes were identified via multivariate analysis methods (i.e., principal component analysis and cluster analysis). Furthermore, the effects of land cover on the spatial variation in water quality types were explored. The results showed that: 1) the values of electronic conductivity (EC) and total dissolved solids (TDS) increased from the middle to the lower reaches, and the highest values were in the Aral Sea. This indicates that the concentrations of anions and cations increased from the middle to the lower reaches. For the nutrient variables, high phosphorous concentrations were in the middle reaches of Amu Darya, and high nitrate-nitrogen concentrations were in the Syr Darya. For the different forms of carbon, the highest concentrations were in the Amu Darya, particularly in the delta area of lower reaches. 2) The water quality at all sampling sites can be divided into three water quality types according to the similarity classification of water quality variables. The first type had low concentrations for most water quality variables, which were distributed in the middle reaches of Syr Darya and the Aral Sea. The second type had high concentrations of different forms of nitrogen and phosphorus, which were distributed in the middle and lower reaches of Amu Darya. The third type had high concentrations of carbon, anions, and cations, which were distributed in the Aral Sea. The water quality concentrations of the first and second types were mainly due to rock weathering processes on bare land, and the anions and cations were mainly derived from the weathering of silicates and evaporites. The concentrations of the third type were mainly due to the evaporation and crystallization processes of a dry climate, and the anions and cations were mainly derived from the weathering of silicates and evaporites, which may also be affected by carbonate weathering. 3) With an increase in the buffer zone radius for each sampling point (0.5 km to 10 km), the significant land cover changed from bare land to water, shrubland, grassland, mixed farmland, and vegetation for the first water quality type; the most significant land cover was water. There were no significant relationships between the second water quality type and land cover. For the third water quality type, the significant land cover changed from water to water, mixed farmland, and vegetation - the most significant land cover was water. Therefore, spatial variation in the water quality variables was mainly affected by the local climate conditions (i.e., climatic drought and intensive evapotranspiration) and the mainland cover types (i.e., bare land, water, farmland, grassland, and urban). To improve the water environmental conditions in the middle and lower reaches of Aral Sea Basin, stream flow should be increased to recharge the Aral Sea and weaken the evaporation and crystallization processes in the lower reaches of Aral Sea. Vegetation restoration and a return of farmland to forest and grassland should also be strengthened in the riparian zone, particularly in the middle and lower reaches of Amu Darya and Syr Darya and the Aral Sea.

A hydromorphic reevaluation of the forgotten river civilizations of Central Asia

The Aral Sea basin in Central Asia and its major rivers, the Amu Darya and Syr Darya, were the center of advanced river civilizations, and a principal hub of the Silk Roads over a period of more than 2,000 y. The region's decline has been traditionally attributed to the devastating Mongol invasion of the early-13th century CE. However, the role of changing hydroclimatic conditions on the development of these culturally influential potamic societies has not been the subject of modern geoarchaeological investigations. In this paper we report the findings of an interdisciplinary investigation of archaeological sites and associated irrigation canals of the Otrār oasis, a United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) World Heritage site located at the confluence of the Syr Darya and Arys rivers in southern Kazakhstan. This includes radiometric dating of irrigation canal abandonment and an investigation of Arys river channel dynamics. Major phases of fluvial aggradation, between the seventh and early ninth century CE and between 1350 and 1550 CE coincide with economic flourishing of the oasis, facilitated by wet climatic conditions and higher river flows that favored floodwater farming. Periods of abandonment of the irrigation network and cultural decline primarily correlate with fluvial entrenchment during periods of drought, instead of being related to destructive invasions. Therefore, it seems the great rivers of Central Asia were not just static "stage sets" for some of the turning points of world history, but in many instances, inadvertently or directly shaped the final outcomes and legacies of imperial ambitions in the region.

ECOLOGICAL-LEGAL AND SOCIO-ECONOMIC ISSUES OF WATER RESOURCES USE AND MANAGEMENT OF ARAL SEA BASIN IN CENTRAL ASIA

ECOLOGICAL-LEGAL AND SOCIO-ECONOMIC ISSUES OF WATER RESOURCES USE AND MANAGEMENT OF ARAL SEA BASIN IN CENTRAL ASIA

Quantifying water volumes of small lakes in the inner Aral Sea Basin, Central Asia, and their potential for reaching water and food security

In the inner Aral Sea Basin of Central Asia, numerous small lakes scattered over the irrigated landscape supply diverse ecosystem services for humans and nature. This study aimed to estimate the water volumes and assess the potentials of these small lakes for instance as irrigation reserve during the ever-recurring periods of water scarcity in the ecologically endangered Amudarya Delta. Bathymetric measurements gathered in the Khorezm region, Northwest Uzbekistan, permitted developing a statistical relationship between the surface and volume of the lakes. Landsat satellite data enabled for classifying the water bodies and hence deriving lake volumes over the study area. In 2002, the lakes stored ~0.032 km3 water during the winter season, but ~0.057 km3 during the main, 5–6 months spanning irrigation period. The area-wide increase in lake volumes during the irrigation period underlined the magnitude to which the currently practiced, inefficient use of irrigation water, produces excess water that in turn contributes to the existence of the small, mesotrophic lakes. Based on crop water requirements, calculations showed that the reuse of lake water may compensate for water-scarce situations, albeit to a certain extend only. An increased share (13 % above average) of water-intensive rice fields in the vicinity of the lakes substantiated that some lakes are already used in this way. It is argued that, in case of sufficient water quality, as indicated by other studies, more targeted exploration of such lake water can help simultaneously both, increasing food and water security of the households surrounding the lakes and safeguarding a supply to maintain different ecosystem functions. Integrated management of all water resources may reduce excess irrigation water supply to the region, which in turn may lessen the dependency of Central Asian downstream countries on transboundary water and supply water resources for the ecosystems in the river deltas.

Reconceptualizing hegemony: the circle of hydro-hegemony

This paper proposes a partial reconceptualization and a redesign of the Framework of Hydro-Hegemony, an analytical tool devised to study how power, hegemony, and power asymmetries can influence transboundary water politics. This is done by presenting the original Circle of Hydro-Hegemony (CHH), an analytical framework that places the neo-Gramscian notion of hegemony at the centre of its structure, to illustrate how various forms of power are connective in the function of hegemony. Following a theoretical discussion on how the concepts of power and hegemony can interact, the case of the Aral Sea basin in Central Asia provides a practical application of the CHH to transboundary water politics.

Implementing the nexus at various scales: Local and regional perspectives

AbstractMany issues in the water, energy and agricultural sector are in fact crosscutting issues, which can only be solved by a nexus approach. A nexus approach means that management solutions account for synergies and tradeoffs between the sectors. Critical issues emerging across the three sectors ask for different policies at different governance levels. However, at each level of policy making the impact at local level should be an important point of reference. In line with this, the case of the Aral Sea Basin in Central Asia exemplifies how international energy politics affect local farmers’ access to irrigation water. Moreover, a comparative study of three states in India shows that local differences in the implementation of the nexus approach can lead to different outcomes in terms of groundwater and electricity use for agriculture. These two examples underline that to implement a nexus approach; the local perspective should not be overlooked, even when policies are designed at higher governance levels.

On Achieving Fairness in the Allocation of Scarce Resources: Measurable Principles and Multiple Objective Optimization Approaches

Equity principles are embedded within a multiple objective framework for obtaining optimal solutions to a generic allocation problem, such as the fair distribution of water, energy, or other types of key resources among users in society. Because of the great import of fresh water as a scarce and diminishing resource within and among many nations of the world, the equity concepts are used in the allocation of water rights and subsequent water transfers or trades among users to improve the economic efficiency of water utilization. More specifically, water allocation is formulated as a generalized multiple objective problem and then the measurable fairness principles are used in the development of two approaches for equitable water rights allocation. In particular, the proposed priority-based maximal multiperiod network flow programming method has a social aggregation function satisfying the monotonicity and priority principles, and thus is a priority equitable allocation approach. The lexicographic minimax water shortage ratios method, which satisfies the principles of monotonicity, impartiality, and equitability, generates perfectly equitable solutions. The priority ranks and weights used in the two proposed approaches, respectively, are designed to achieve fair treatment of all the competitors for access to limited water resources and constitute important parameters. The capabilities of the approaches are tested and demonstrated in applications to the Aral Sea Basin in Central Asia and the South Saskatchewan River Basin in Western Canada.

Strategic Decision Support for Resolving Conflict over Water Sharing among Countries along the Syr Darya River in the Aral Sea Basin

The graph model for conflict resolution GMCR, along with its associated decision support system GMCR II, are employed for systematically studying the strategic aspects of conflict existing among countries in the Aral Sea Basin of Central Asia. Competition for water is increasing in the central Asian countries in the Aral Sea Basin since they became independent in 1991. Disputes have developed between the three downstream countries, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan, and the two upstream countries, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, in the basin in sharing water in its two main rivers, Syr Darya and Amu Darya. The downstream countries are heavy consumers of water for growing cotton while the upstream countries want to use more water for electricity generation and farming. Accordingly, GMCR II is utilized as a formal mechanism for better understanding the complex conflict existing at present among countries along the Syr Darya and for providing insights as to how these countries may interact with one another in attempting to reach a resolution acceptable to all. In particular, strictly following the present water allocation agreement by all parties is found to be the most preferred resolution for both the upstream and downstream countries.

Simulation of Processes Involved in Soil Salinization to Guide Soil Remediation

The man-made development of lands for irrigated agriculture has provided benefits, but in some schemes has resulted in catastrophic problems arising from soil salinization including those in the Aral Sea Basin in central Asia and the Murray-Darling Basin in Australia. Soil salinization is a gradual process and the impact of salt intrusion is noticeable after several years of development, typically ranging from 10to30years. In central Asia salt water management has historically been based on rules of thumb with mixed results. A coupled surface and ground water model, HYDRO-GW, has been developed with the facilities to model the processes in the root zone and in the unsaturated and saturated subsurface system. The model is applied to the Kashkadarya irrigation area in Uzbekistan to assess the impact of various changes in land and water management practices on reducing salinity levels. Simplified equations have been presented which have potential application for assessing the salinization process and can be used as precursors to detailed assessment using a coupled surface and ground water model.

Surface crusts on soils/sediments of the southern Aral Sea basin, Uzbekistan

Soils and sediments of the southern Aral Sea basin of Central Asia are commonly covered by salt-bearing surface crusts. These crusts represent a potential source of salt-rich dust that can contribute to salinisation of soils in a large area. Crust types include takyric crusts, surface crusts on Solonchaks, and salt crusts covering dry parts of the lake bed. The takyric crusts are structural crusts, showing features related to flooding and shrinkage. Gypsum, formed within the sediment matrix, is the only evaporite mineral they contain. One studied Solonchak crust is fine-grained, with a thin thenardite and bloedite coating along the irregular surface and halite coatings along the sides of pores. All salts in this crust formed by evaporation of solutions contained in the groundmass. A Solonchak crust with a sandy texture contains prismatic gypsum crystals that formed in a water-saturated surface layer, as well as bloedite, eugsterite and halite, formed by evaporation of interstitial brines. The lake bed crust is a pure accumulation of salt minerals (bloedite, hexahydrite, halite, kainite), with synsedimentary and diagenetic features. Salt mineral assemblages in the three crust types are those that form during successive stages of evaporation of Aral Sea waters, in agreement with published theoretical predictions.

Seasonal Runoff Forecasting Using Precipitation from Meteorological Data Assimilation Systems

In semiarid mountainous regions such as central Asia, runoff from snowmelt often represents the dominant contribution to river flow and freshwater supply during the dry season. The estimation of snow accumulation during the preceding seasons then provides a key to seasonal runoff forecasting with lead times of a few months, and it requires appropriate coverage with surface precipitation and/or snow water equivalent observations. This study tests whether the lack of conventional precipitation and snow observations can be overcome by using model-based precipitation estimates from meteorological data assimilation systems. To this end, a detailed examination is undertaken of the ability of model-assimilated precipitation data to represent the interannual (year-to-year) variations of observed runoff in the Aral Sea basin in central Asia. Precipitation from the 15-yr Re-Analysis (ERA-15) of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) for the period 1979‐93 is compared against precipitation estimates derived from rain gauge networks, and against the observed natural runoff in the Syrdarya (166 400 km 2) and Amudarya (320 520 km2) basins. It is demonstrated that the ERA-15 dataset is able—despite its low spatial resolution—to describe the seasonal cycle and the larger-scale geographical distribution of precipitation in central Asia. For the Syrdarya basin, it is found that December‐April ERA-15 precipitation correlates well with observed May‐September natural discharge. The correlation coefficient between the two time series amounts to r 5 0.92. It is also demonstrated that ERA-15 precipitation is a better predictor for subsequent runoff than rain gauge‐based precipitation analyses, presumably because of the poor coverage with rain gauge stations. The high correlations suggest that a reliable seasonal runoff forecasting system can be constructed from the statistical relationship between model-assimilated precipitation and subsequent runoff. Cross-validation hindcasting techniques are used to confirm this conclusion. A real runoff forecasting system would, however, require using a real-time precipitation product from an operational data assimilation system. For the Amudarya basin, the correlation between precipitation and subsequent runoff is substantially lower, presumably because of a lower quality of ERA-15 precipitation estimates within the tropical weather system, and/or due to a lower quality of the withdrawal-corrected runoff figures.

Water in the Aral Sea Basin of Central Asia: Cause of Conflict or Cooperation?

An American specialist on the water resources of the republics of the former USSR, and especially those in Central Asia, reviews the current state of the Aral Sea Basin water resource with respect to supply, consumption, and the legal/institutional framework governing its use. More specifically, he examines water resources and management in the Aral Sea Basin for the purpose of assessing the potential for either interstate conflict or cooperation among the basin states (including Afghanistan and Iran). The author explores actions that could be taken to enhance water availability in the basin and the status of current structures for interstate management of key shared water resources. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: Q15, Q25, R14. 2 figures, 2 tables, 49 references.