Abstract
Global change brings great uncertainty to the fragile ecological environment of arid area. In order to understand the driving role of climatic factors and socio-economic activity on changes, the distribution and change of vegetation in the Aral Sea basin were examined using data from remote sensing, population data sets from 2000 to 2015, transfer matrix, and the centre of gravity model. The salient results of the analysis were as follows. (1) Although the index increased slightly in the past 20 years overall, it fluctuated greatly over that time. From 2000 to 2015, the NDVI decreased in approximately 62% of the area; increased in 24%; and remained unchanged in 14%. (2) From 2000 to 2015, the geographic centre of the area under forest land to the northeast, marking the advancement of urbanization upstream. The geographic centre of grassland moved to the west. (3) The overall impact of precipitation on vegetation was greater than that of temperature. Areas showing a strong correlation were mostly concentrated in forest land; the impact of precipitation on grasslands was weak. (4) The distribution of vegetation was adversely affected by the increase in population and in GDP. The present study is of particular significance to the restoration and reconstruction of the Aral Sea basin ecosystem.
Highlights
As climate change and socio-economic development continue, so does the degradation of ecological environment in arid regions, posing a serious challenge to sustainable development of any society [1]
From 2000 to 2015, the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) decreased in approximately 62% of the area; increased in 24%; and remained unchanged in 14%. (2) From 2000 to 2015, the geographic centre of the area under forest land to the northeast, marking the advancement of urbanization upstream
The data on land use for 2000, 2007, and 2015 were reclassified into the following six types using the method of transfer matrix analysis: evergreen coniferous forest (ECF), deciduous broad leaf forest (DBF), deciduous coniferous forest (DCF), Bush Forest (BF), sparse woodland (SW), high grass cover (HGC), middle and low grass cover (MLGC), Others(OT)
Summary
As climate change and socio-economic development continue, so does the degradation of ecological environment in arid regions, posing a serious challenge to sustainable development of any society [1]. As climate change makes the uneven distribution of water resources in arid regions even more marked, a series of ecological and environmental problems such as degradation of vegetation, salinization of soils, shrinking of lakes, and degradation of entire ecosystems become more prominent [11,12]. Researchers have studied changes in water resources and the evolution of vegetation in the Aral Sea basin in recent years, spatial details of the relationship between climate change and the evolution of vegetation and location of the spatial centre of the sweeping ecological degradation have received little attention, so the present paper is one attempt to fill that gap in knowledge. The paper (1) analyses the characteristics of spatial distribution of vegetation and changes in the pattern of vegetation in the Aral Sea basin to examine how they have been affected by climate change and human activity and (2) seeks to explain the forces that have been driving those changes
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