Screening Episodes Research Articles

Modelling the cost-effectiveness of adopting risk-stratified approaches to extended screening intervals in the national diabetic retinopathy screening programme in Scotland.

To assess the cost-effectiveness of adopting risk-stratified approaches to extended screening intervals in the national diabetic retinopathy screening programme in Scotland. A continuous-time hidden Markov model was fitted to national longitudinal screening data to derive transition probabilities between observed non-referable and referable retinopathy states. These were incorporated in a decision model simulating progression, costs and visual acuity outcomes for a synthetic cohort with a covariate distribution matching that of the Scottish diabetic screening population. The cost-effectiveness of adopting extended (2-year) screening for groups with no observed retinopathy was then assessed over a 30-year time horizon. Individuals with a current grade of no retinopathy on two consecutive screening episodes face the lowest risk of progressing to referable disease. For the cohort as a whole, the incremental cost per quality-adjusted life year gained for annual vs. biennial screening ranged from approximately £74 000 (for those with no retinopathy and a prior observed grade of mild or observable background retinopathy) to approximately £232 000 per quality-adjusted life year gained (for those with no retinopathy on two consecutive screening episodes). The corresponding incremental cost-effectiveness ratios in the subgroup with Type 1 diabetes were substantially lower; approximately £22 000 to £85 000 per quality-adjusted life year gained, respectively. Biennial screening for individuals with diabetes who have no retinopathy is likely to deliver significant savings for a very small increase in the risk of adverse visual acuity and quality of life outcomes. There is greater uncertainty regarding the long-term cost-effectiveness of adopting biennial screening in younger people with Type 1 diabetes.

Coordination of diabetic retinopathy screening in the Kimberley region of Western Australia.

To determine the coverage provided by the Kimberley Diabetic Retinopathy Screening Program and evaluate the impact of the Kimberley diabetic eye health coordinator (KDEHC) position using an evidence-based approach. Retrospective audit. Primary care services in the Kimberley region of Western Australia. Individuals with diabetes mellitus who underwent screening for diabetic retinopathy (DR) from 1 March 2010 to 28 February 2014. A KDEHC was engaged from February 2012 to provide coordination and support for the DR screening program. Coverage provided by the program for Indigenous Australians with diabetes, as measured against annual projected needs for diabetic eye examinations. Data were collected for 1247 screening episodes for 947 Indigenous Australian patients. Coverage provided by the program increased from 9.44% in 2010-2011 to 29.8% in 2013-2014 (P<0.05). The number of sites engaged in screening increased from four in 2010-2011 to 17 in 2013-2014. After the engagement of the KDEHC, significant increases in visual acuity recording and coverage were observed, as well as a non-significant increase in photo quality. Engagement of the KDEHC was associated with significant increases in program coverage. Despite the observed increase, there were significant shortfalls in the number of Indigenous Australians with diabetes undergoing screening in the Kimberley region. This may be explained by examinations provided by other services in the Kimberley region, namely visiting optometry services, but also highlights a large proportion of the population not undergoing screening.

The Importance of Scabies Coinfection in the Treatment Considerations for Impetigo.

Skin infections account for a high disease burden in indigenous children living in northern Australia. Although the relationship between impetigo and scabies is recognized, the prevalence of scabies in children with impetigo is not well reported. We report the prevalence, demographics and treatment success outcomes of impetigo and scabies coinfection in indigenous children who were participants in a randomized controlled trial of impetigo treatment conducted in remote communities of the Northern Territory, Australia. Of 1715 screening episodes for impetigo, 508 children were randomized to receive intramuscular benzathine benzylpenicillin (BPG), twice daily co-trimoxazole (SXT) for 3 days (4 mg/kg trimethoprim plus 20 mg/kg sulfamethoxazole per dose) or once daily SXT for 5 days (8 mg/kg trimethoprim plus 40 mg/kg sulfamethoxazole per dose). A clinical diagnosis of scabies; tinea of the skin, scalp or nail; and head lice was made on all children. Scabies presence was not confirmed using diagnostic scrapings. In a post-hoc analysis, we determined whether coinfection with scabies had an impact on treatment success for impetigo. Of children randomized to receive treatment for impetigo, 84 of 508 (16.5%) had scabies. The presence of scabies ranged from 14.3% to 20.0% in the 3 treatment groups. Treatment success for impetigo with and without scabies coinfection, independent of the treatment groups, was 75.9% and 86.6%, respectively, absolute difference 10.7% [95% confidence interval (CI): +1% to +21%]. Treatment success for impetigo with and without scabies coinfection in the BPG group was 69.6% and 88.0%, respectively, absolute difference 18.4% (95% CI: -1% to +38%). In the pooled SXT groups, the treatment success for impetigo with and without scabies coinfection was 78.6% and 86.0%, respectively, with absolute difference 7.4% (95% CI: -4% to +18%). Treatment success in the pooled SXT group with scabies (78.6%) was higher than in the BPG group (69.6%) with scabies, absolute difference 9.0% (95% CI: +0.1% to +18%). Prediction of treatment success for impetigo is dependent on the presence or absence of scabies and for scabies coinfected impetigo it was higher in the group treated with SXT. The burden of scabies in an impetigo trial for Indigenous children was high. Treatment success for scabies coinfection was lower than for impetigo overall, with a higher success seen in the SXT group than the BPG group.

Abstract P6-02-04: Screen detected and interval cancers; genomic analysis points to different molecular etiology?

Abstract Breast cancers diagnosed after a negative mammogram but prior to the next screening episode are termed "interval cancers" and comprise as many as 25% of all cancers detected in women attending population-based screening programs. The high interval cancer rate is a major problem affecting the effectiveness of mammographic screening. It is unclear whether interval cancers represent a distinct biological entity compared to screen-detected cancers or whether their designation is simply an arbitrary outcome of screening timing. Using an Australian prospective population-based cohort of over 53,000 women (lifepool), 537 cases of breast carcinoma (in situ and invasive breast cancer) were identified, of which 293 had known screening status at time of diagnosis. Pathology reports, mammographic density data, germline DNA and tumor tissue were available for analysis. Screen and interval cases showed no significant differences in mammographic density or PR status but there were trends towards higher proportions of ER negative and HER2 positive cases in interval cancers (p&amp;lt;0.1). Interval cancers also had a younger age at diagnosis (p&amp;lt;0.01), increased tumor size (p&amp;lt;0.01) and higher grade (p&amp;lt;0.01). Copy number analysis was performed on a subset of invasive breast cancer cases using OncoScan MIP arrays. No difference in the overall number of copy number aberrations or fraction of the genome altered were observed, however specific differences were noted between interval and screen detected cases. These included copy number changes on chromosomes 8 and 11. Analysis of germline DNA was performed using a panel sequencing approach of known breast cancer genes as well as lower-penetrance SNPs. Pathogenic mutations in BRCA1, BRCA2, TP53 and PALB2 were identified in 1/13 interval cases (in BRCA2), 1/66 screen-detected cases and 8/74 cases with currently unknown screen/interval status. Screen detected cancers may thus have a reduced contribution from high-penetrance predisposing variants. Citation Format: Gorringe KL, Hunter SM, Byrne D, Devereux L, Rowley SM, Elder K, Huynh R, Pridmore V, Hopper J, Kavanagh A, Mitchell G, Mann BG, Fox SB, Campbell IG. Screen detected and interval cancers; genomic analysis points to different molecular etiology?. [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the Thirty-Eighth Annual CTRC-AACR San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium: 2015 Dec 8-12; San Antonio, TX. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2016;76(4 Suppl):Abstract nr P6-02-04.

Factors associated with completion of bowel cancer screening and the potential effects of simplifying the screening test algorithm.

Background:The primary colorectal cancer screening test in England is a guaiac faecal occult blood test (gFOBt). The NHS Bowel Cancer Screening Programme (BCSP) interprets tests on six samples on up to three test kits to determine a definitive positive or negative result. However, the test algorithm fails to achieve a definitive result for a significant number of participants because they do not comply with the programme requirements. This study identifies factors associated with failed compliance and modifications to the screening algorithm that will improve the clinical effectiveness of the screening programme.Methods:The BCSP Southern Hub data for screening episodes started in 2006–2012 were analysed for participants aged 60–69 years. The variables included age, sex, level of deprivation, gFOBt results and clinical outcome.Results:The data set included 1 409 335 screening episodes; 95.08% of participants had a definitively normal result on kit 1 (no positive spots). Among participants asked to complete a second or third gFOBt, 5.10% and 4.65%, respectively, failed to return a valid kit. Among participants referred for follow up, 13.80% did not comply. Older age was associated with compliance at repeat testing, but non-compliance at follow up. Increasing levels of deprivation were associated with non-compliance at repeat testing and follow up. Modelling a reduction in the threshold for immediate referral led to a small increase in completion of the screening pathway.Conclusions:Reducing the number of positive spots required on the first gFOBt kit for referral for follow-up and targeted measures to improve compliance with follow-up may improve completion of the screening pathway.

Impact of general practice endorsement on the social gradient in uptake in bowel cancer screening.

Background:There is a socioeconomic gradient in the uptake of screening in the English NHS Bowel Cancer Screening Programme (BCSP), potentially leading to inequalities in outcomes. We tested whether endorsement of bowel cancer screening by an individual's general practice (GP endorsement; GPE) reduced this gradient.Methods:A cluster-randomised controlled trial. Over 20 days, individuals eligible for screening in England from 6480 participating general practices were randomly allocated to receive a GP-endorsed or the standard invitation letter. The primary outcome was the proportion of people adequately screened and its variation by quintile of Index of Multiple Deprivation.Results:We enrolled 265 434 individuals. Uptake was 58.2% in the intervention arm and 57.5% in the control arm. After adjusting for age, sex, hub and screening episode, GPE increased the overall odds of uptake (OR=1.07, 95% CI 1.04–1.10), but did not affect its socioeconomic gradient. We estimated that implementing GPE could result in up to 165 more people with high or intermediate risk colorectal adenomas and 61 cancers detected, and a small one-off cost to modify the standard invitation (£78 000).Conclusions:Although GPE did not improve its socioeconomic gradient, it offers a low-cost approach to enhancing overall screening uptake within the NHS BCSP.

Ovarian cancer screening and mortality in the UK Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening (UKCTOCS): a randomised controlled trial

SummaryBackgroundOvarian cancer has a poor prognosis, with just 40% of patients surviving 5 years. We designed this trial to establish the effect of early detection by screening on ovarian cancer mortality.MethodsIn this randomised controlled trial, we recruited postmenopausal women aged 50–74 years from 13 centres in National Health Service Trusts in England, Wales, and Northern Ireland. Exclusion criteria were previous bilateral oophorectomy or ovarian malignancy, increased risk of familial ovarian cancer, and active non-ovarian malignancy. The trial management system confirmed eligibility and randomly allocated participants in blocks of 32 using computer-generated random numbers to annual multimodal screening (MMS) with serum CA125 interpreted with use of the risk of ovarian cancer algorithm, annual transvaginal ultrasound screening (USS), or no screening, in a 1:1:2 ratio. The primary outcome was death due to ovarian cancer by Dec 31, 2014, comparing MMS and USS separately with no screening, ascertained by an outcomes committee masked to randomisation group. All analyses were by modified intention to screen, excluding the small number of women we discovered after randomisation to have a bilateral oophorectomy, have ovarian cancer, or had exited the registry before recruitment. Investigators and participants were aware of screening type. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT00058032.FindingsBetween June 1, 2001, and Oct 21, 2005, we randomly allocated 202 638 women: 50 640 (25·0%) to MMS, 50 639 (25·0%) to USS, and 101 359 (50·0%) to no screening. 202 546 (>99·9%) women were eligible for analysis: 50 624 (>99·9%) women in the MMS group, 50 623 (>99·9%) in the USS group, and 101 299 (>99·9%) in the no screening group. Screening ended on Dec 31, 2011, and included 345 570 MMS and 327 775 USS annual screening episodes. At a median follow-up of 11·1 years (IQR 10·0–12·0), we diagnosed ovarian cancer in 1282 (0·6%) women: 338 (0·7%) in the MMS group, 314 (0·6%) in the USS group, and 630 (0·6%) in the no screening group. Of these women, 148 (0·29%) women in the MMS group, 154 (0·30%) in the USS group, and 347 (0·34%) in the no screening group had died of ovarian cancer. The primary analysis using a Cox proportional hazards model gave a mortality reduction over years 0–14 of 15% (95% CI −3 to 30; p=0·10) with MMS and 11% (−7 to 27; p=0·21) with USS. The Royston-Parmar flexible parametric model showed that in the MMS group, this mortality effect was made up of 8% (−20 to 31) in years 0–7 and 23% (1–46) in years 7–14, and in the USS group, of 2% (−27 to 26) in years 0–7 and 21% (−2 to 42) in years 7–14. A prespecified analysis of death from ovarian cancer of MMS versus no screening with exclusion of prevalent cases showed significantly different death rates (p=0·021), with an overall average mortality reduction of 20% (−2 to 40) and a reduction of 8% (−27 to 43) in years 0–7 and 28% (−3 to 49) in years 7–14 in favour of MMS.InterpretationAlthough the mortality reduction was not significant in the primary analysis, we noted a significant mortality reduction with MMS when prevalent cases were excluded. We noted encouraging evidence of a mortality reduction in years 7–14, but further follow-up is needed before firm conclusions can be reached on the efficacy and cost-effectiveness of ovarian cancer screening.FundingMedical Research Council, Cancer Research UK, Department of Health, The Eve Appeal.

A comparison of two digital mammography systems: are there any differences?

To compare the performance of two newly introduced digital mammography technologies (Sectra and Hologic) to the Welsh breast-screening service; specifically, whether there are differences in the number, type, size, and grade of tumour identified. This was a retrospective study of a prospectively collected database of 50,000 consecutive screening episodes from 2012; clients were aged 49-88 years (mean 61.9 years). All studies were double-blind read by two readers. All tumours identified in the two arms of the study were detailed and compared specifically with regards to type (ductal or lobular) size, grade, and whether invasive or non-invasive. Performance was analysed for any statistically significant differences. Twenty-five thousand consecutive women were screened with Hologic (recall rate 5.9% of which 18% were cancer) and 25,000 were screened with Sectra digital mammography (recall rate 4.3% and 22% were cancer). Five hundred tumours were found with no significant difference in invasive cancer detection or between ductal or lobular subtypes. The Hologic system detected 267 tumours; of which 81 (30.33%) were non-invasive (3.24 per 1000), compared to the Sectra system with 233 cancers overall including 36 non-invasive (15.45%, 1.44 per 1000). The difference in non-invasive lesions (mainly ductal carcinoma in situ [DCIS]) detection was significant (p<0.001); 38% of which were high nuclear grade (HNG) using Hologic and 50% HNG lesions using Sectra. There was no significant difference in non-invasive size between the two technologies. The mean glandular dose received using the Sectra system was significantly less (0.7mGy) compared to the Hologic system (1.6mGy) for a 50-60mm breast thickness. Population breast screening is frequently criticised for identifying lesions irrelevant to long-term outcomes or life expectancy and although the two systems seem comparable in terms of invasive cancer detection, a statistically significant difference in the detection of non-invasive lesions was seen, not reported in previous studies. This is a contentious issue, as identifying more DCIS has the potential to over-diagnose screened women leading to increased morbidity, higher "cancer detection rates", longer cancer waiting times, and reduced patient psychological wellbeing. The Sectra system is able to deliver a similar invasive detection cancer delivering a much lower dose mammogram, which is important in limiting overall population radiation dose. Further study as to whether the differences in tumour detection rates are clinically significant long term are now required.

Impact of subsequent screening episodes on the positive predictive value for advanced neoplasia and on the distribution of anatomic subsites of colorectal cancer: A population-based study on behalf of the French colorectal cancer screening program

BackgroundThe anatomic distribution of advanced colorectal neoplasia is increasingly important for choosing screening strategies and treatment options. We sought to evaluate the impact of repeated screening on the positive predictive value (PPV) for advanced colorectal neoplasia (advanced adenoma, AA, and colorectal cancer, CRC) and their distribution according to anatomic subsite distribution in average-risk adults. MethodThe study included 98,031 men and women aged 50-74 who had a positive g-FOBT in 2010 and 2011 and underwent total colonoscopy. The PPV for detection of AA and CRC and the relative risks were determined with log-binomial models, and the distribution of anatomic subsites was estimated according to screening history. ResultThe median age was 61 years (62 years for participants with AA and 64 for those with CRC). The PPV for detection of advanced neoplasia was 24.5%, substantially higher in men than women (30.7% vs 17.7%), and it increased with age. It also fell at all screening episodes after the first. Subsequent screening episodes were associated with an increased RR for proximal AA (RR 1.13, 95% CI 1.16–1.20). Advancing age (RR 1.28, 95% CI 1.19–1.39 for every 10-year increase in age), female gender (RR 1.31, 95% CI 1.19–1.44), and subsequent screening (RR 1.15, 95% CI 1.04–1.27) were significantly and independently associated with detection of proximal adenocarcinoma. The latter was also detected at an advanced stage more often (RR, 1.24, 95% CI: 1.09–1.42). Early stages of invasive adenocarcinoma (stages I and II) was more likely to be detected in a subsequent than an initial screening (RR 1.07, 95% CI 1.01–1.13). ConclusionThis study found that subsequent screening episodes using g-FOBT were associated with an increase in the detection rate of proximal AA and CRC, especially among women. The more frequent detection of proximal invasive adenocarcinoma at an advanced stage in subsequent screenings suggests that some of these tumors may well not be real incident lesions, but are likely to include lesions that were missed on the previous screens. Although modest, the increase in the rate of detection of invasive adenocarcinoma at early (and more curable) stages from the first to subsequent screenings, together with this potential for missed diagnoses on initial screening and the increased detection rate for proximal or rectal AA in subsequent screening episodes, underlines the need to reinforce the population’s awareness of the importance of regular consistent screening, after negative results.

Screening attendance, age group and diabetic retinopathy level at first screen.

AimsTo report on the relationships between age at diagnosis of diabetes, time from registration with the screening programme to first diabetic eye screening and severity of diabetic retinopathy.MethodsData were extracted from four English screening programmes and from the Scottish, Welsh and Northern Irish programmes. Time from diagnosis of diabetes to first screening and age at diagnosis were calculated.ResultsTime from registration with the screening programme to first screening episode is strongly related to age at registration. Within 18 months of registration 89% of 3958 young people under 18 years of age and 81% of 391 293 people over 35 years of age were seen. In 19 058 people between 18 and 34 years of age, 80% coverage was not reached until 2 years and 9 months. The time from diagnosis of diabetes to first screening is positively associated with severity of disease (P < 0.0001).ConclusionsThis report is the first that to demonstrate that those in the 18–34 year age group are least likely to attend promptly for screening after registration with a higher risk of referable diabetic retinopathy being present at the time of first screen. Date of diagnosis should be recorded and prodigious efforts made to screen all people promptly after diagnosis. Screening programmes should collect data on those who have not attended within one year of registration.

Development of a cost-effectiveness model for optimisation of the screening interval in diabetic retinopathy screening.

The English NHS Diabetic Eye Screening Programme was established in 2003. Eligible people are invited annually for digital retinal photography screening. Those found to have potentially sight-threatening diabetic retinopathy (STDR) are referred to surveillance clinics or to Hospital Eye Services. To determine whether personalised screening intervals are cost-effective. Risk factors were identified in Gloucestershire, UK using survival modelling. A probabilistic decision hidden (unobserved) Markov model with a misgrading matrix was developed. This informed estimation of lifetime costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) in patients without STDR. Two personalised risk stratification models were employed: two screening episodes (SEs) (low, medium or high risk) or one SE with clinical information (low, medium-low, medium-high or high risk). The risk factor models were validated in other populations. Gloucestershire, Nottinghamshire, South London and East Anglia (all UK). People with diabetes in Gloucestershire with risk stratification model validation using data from Nottinghamshire, South London and East Anglia. Personalised risk-based algorithm for screening interval; cost-effectiveness of different screening intervals. Data were obtained in Gloucestershire from 12,790 people with diabetes with known risk factors to derive the risk estimation models, from 15,877 people to inform the uptake of screening and from 17,043 people to inform the health-care resource-usage costs. Two stratification models were developed: one using only results from previous screening events and one using previous screening and some commonly available GP data. Both models were capable of differentiating groups at low and high risk of development of STDR. The rate of progression to STDR was 5 per 1000 person-years (PYs) in the lowest decile of risk and 75 per 1000 PYs in the highest decile. In the absence of personalised risk stratification, the most cost-effective screening interval was to screen all patients every 3 years, with a 46% probability of this being cost-effective at a £30,000 per QALY threshold. Using either risk stratification models, screening patients at low risk every 5 years was the most cost-effective option, with a probability of 99-100% at a £30,000 per QALY threshold. For the medium-risk groups screening every 3 years had a probability of 43-48% while screening high-risk groups every 2 years was cost-effective with a probability of 55-59%. The study found that annual screening of all patients for STDR was not cost-effective. Screening this entire cohort every 3 years was most likely to be cost-effective. When personalised intervals are applied, screening those in our low-risk groups every 5 years was found to be cost-effective. Screening high-risk groups every 2 years further improved the cost-effectiveness of the programme. There was considerable uncertainty in the estimated incremental costs and in the incremental QALYs, particularly with regard to implications of an increasing proportion of maculopathy cases receiving intravitreal injection rather than laser treatment. Future work should focus on improving the understanding of risk, validating in further populations and investigating quality issues in imaging and assessment including the potential for automated image grading. Integrated Research Application System project number 118959. The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

Abstract 4681: Reducing overdiagnosis by polygenic risk-stratified screening: findings from the Finnish arm of the European randomised study of screening for prostate cancer (ERSPC)

Abstract Background The US Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) recommends against serum prostate specific antigen (PSA) based screening for prostate cancer, on the grounds that the expected harms of screening (mainly overdiagnosis and subsequent overtreatment) outweigh the potential benefits (mainly reduction in cancer-specific mortality). This study aims to estimate the mean sojourn time (MST) and sensitivity and then use these estimates to derive the probability of overdiagnosis by polygenic risk group. Methods We calculated the polygenic risk score based on genotypes of 66 known prostate cancer susceptibility variants for 4,967 men from the Finnish arm of the European randomised study of screening for prostate cancer (ERSPC). We stratified the 80,179 Finnish trial participants into two risk groups below and above 50th percentile risk. Using a maximum likelihood method based on interval cancers, we estimated the MST and episode sensitivity. We calculated the expected number of non-overdiagnosed screen-detected cancers over three rounds of screening. We estimated the proportion of screen-detected cancers that are likely to be overdiagnosed from the difference between the observed and expected number of screen-detected cancers. We derived overall and separate estimates of overdiagnosis by polygenic risk group. Result Men in the above average genetic risk group accounted for 74 percent of the prostate cancers cases. The episode sensitivity was 0.55 (95% CI 0.45 to 0.65) and MST 6.3 (95% CI 4.2 to 8.3) years. The overall overdiagnosis was 42% (95% CI 37 to 52) with 58% (95% CI 54 to 65) in the lower risk group and 37% (95% CI 31 to 47) in the higher risk group. Targeting screening to men in the higher polygenic risk group would reduce screening episodes by half while detecting 80% of the non-overdiagnosed cancers and preventing 38% of the overdiagnosed cancers at a cost of missing 20% of the non-overdiagnosed cancers. Conclusion Polygenic risk-stratified screening for prostate cancer is a promising approach to decrease overdiagnosis. Further research is needed to study the effect of targeted screening on cancer-specific mortality. Citation Format: Nora Pashayan, Paul D.P. Pharoah, Johanna Schleutker, Kirsi Talala, Teuvo LJ Tammela, Liisa Määttänen, Patricia Harrington, Jonathan Tyrer, Rosalind Eeles, Stephen W. Duffy, Anssi Auvinen. Reducing overdiagnosis by polygenic risk-stratified screening: findings from the Finnish arm of the European randomised study of screening for prostate cancer (ERSPC). [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the 106th Annual Meeting of the American Association for Cancer Research; 2015 Apr 18-22; Philadelphia, PA. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2015;75(15 Suppl):Abstract nr 4681. doi:10.1158/1538-7445.AM2015-4681

Likely effect of adding flexible sigmoidoscopy to the English NHS Bowel Cancer Screening Programme: impact on colorectal cancer cases and deaths

Background:From 2013, once-only flexible sigmoidoscopy (FS) at age 55 is being phased into the England National Health Service Bowel Cancer Screening Programme (NHSBCSP), augmenting biennial guaiac faecal occult blood testing (gFOBT) at ages 60–74. Here, we project the impact of this change on colorectal cancer (CRC) cases and deaths prevented in England by mid-2030.Methods:We simulated the life-course of English residents reaching age 55 from 2013 onwards. Model inputs included population numbers, invitation rates and CRC incidence and mortality rates. The impact of gFOBT and FS alone on CRC incidence and mortality were derived from published trials, assuming an uptake of 50% for FS and 57% for gFOBT. For FS plus gFOBT, we assumed the gFOBT effect to be 75% of the gFOBT alone impact.Results:By mid-2030, 8.5 million individuals will have been invited for once-only FS screening. Adding FS to gFOBT screening is estimated to prevent an extra 9627 (−10%) cases and 2207 (−12%) deaths by mid-2030. If FS uptake is 38% or 71%, respectively, an extra 7379 (−8%) or 13 689 (−15%) cases and 1691 (−9%) or 3154 (−17%) deaths will be prevented by mid-2030.Conclusions:Adding once-only FS at age 55 to the NHSBCSP will prevent ∼10 000 CRC cases and ∼2000 CRC deaths by mid-2030 if FS uptake is 50%. In 2030, one cancer was estimated to be prevented per 150 FS screening episodes, and one death prevented per 900 FS screening episodes. The actual reductions will depend on the FS invitation schedule and uptake rates.

Unifying screening processes within the PROSPR consortium: a conceptual model for breast, cervical, and colorectal cancer screening.

General frameworks of the cancer screening process are available, but none directly compare the process in detail across different organ sites. This limits the ability of medical and public health professionals to develop and evaluate coordinated screening programs that apply resources and population management strategies available for one cancer site to other sites. We present a trans-organ conceptual model that incorporates a single screening episode for breast, cervical, and colorectal cancers into a unified framework based on clinical guidelines and protocols; the model concepts could be expanded to other organ sites. The model covers four types of care in the screening process: risk assessment, detection, diagnosis, and treatment. Interfaces between different provider teams (eg, primary care and specialty care), including communication and transfer of responsibility, may occur when transitioning between types of care. Our model highlights across each organ site similarities and differences in steps, interfaces, and transitions in the screening process and documents the conclusion of a screening episode. This model was developed within the National Cancer Institute-funded consortium Population-based Research Optimizing Screening through Personalized Regimens (PROSPR). PROSPR aims to optimize the screening process for breast, cervical, and colorectal cancer and includes seven research centers and a statistical coordinating center. Given current health care reform initiatives in the United States, this conceptual model can facilitate the development of comprehensive quality metrics for cancer screening and promote trans-organ comparative cancer screening research. PROSPR findings will support the design of interventions that improve screening outcomes across multiple cancer sites.

A study of whether automated Diabetic Retinopathy Image Assessment could replace manual grading steps in the English National Screening Programme.

Diabetic retinopathy screening in England involves labour intensive manual grading of digital retinal images. We present the plan for an observational retrospective study of whether automated systems could replace one or more steps of human grading. Patients aged 12 or older who attended the Diabetes Eye Screening programme, Homerton University Hospital (London) between 1 June 2012 and 4 November 2013 had macular and disc-centred retinal images taken. All screening episodes were manually graded and will additionally be graded by three automated systems. Each system will process all screening episodes, and screening performance (sensitivity, false positive rate, likelihood ratios) and diagnostic accuracy (95% confidence intervals of screening performance measures) will be quantified. A sub-set of gradings will be validated by an approved Reading Centre. Additional analyses will explore the effect of altering thresholds for disease detection within each automated system on screening performance. 2,782/20,258 diabetes patients were referred to ophthalmologists for further examination. Prevalence of maculopathy (M1), pre-proliferative retinopathy (R2), and proliferative retinopathy (R3) were 7.9%, 3.1% and 1.2%, respectively; 4749 (23%) patients were diagnosed with background retinopathy (R1); 1.5% were considered ungradable by human graders. Retinopathy prevalence was similar to other English diabetic screening programmes, so findings should be generalizable. The study population size will allow the detection of differences in screening performance between the human and automated grading systems as small as 2%. The project will compare performance and economic costs of manual versus automated systems.

Progression of diabetes retinal status within community screening programs and potential implications for screening intervals.

This study aimed to follow the natural progression of retinal changes in patients with diabetes. Such information should inform decisions with regard to the screening intervals for such patients. An observational study was undertaken linking the data from seven diabetes retinal screening programs across the U.K. for retinal grading results between 2005 and 2012. Patients with absent or background retinopathy were followed up for progression to the end points referable retinopathy and treatable retinopathy (proliferative retinopathy). In total, 354,549 patients were observed for up to 4 years during which 16,196 patients progressed to referable retinopathy. Of patients with no retinopathy in either eye for two successive screening episodes at least 12 months apart, the conditions of between 0.3% (95% CI 0.3-0.8%) and 1.3% (1.0-1.6%) of patients progressed to referable retinopathy, and rates of treatable eye disease were <0.3% at 2 years. The corresponding progression rates for patients with bilateral background retinopathy in successive screening episodes were 13-29% and up to 4%, respectively, in the different programs. It may be possible to stratify patients for risk, according to baseline retinal criteria, into groups with low and high risk of their conditions progressing to proliferative retinopathy. Screening intervals for such diverse groups of patients could safely be modified according to their risk.

Predictors of repeat participation in the NHS bowel cancer screening programme.

Objectives:Most types of population-based cancer screening require repeat participation to be effective. This study investigated predictors of repeat participation in the NHS Bowel Cancer Screening Programme (BCSP).Methods:The BCSP in England offers biennial colorectal cancer screening using a guaiac fecal occult blood test (gFOBt) from age 60–74 years. This analysis included 62 081 individuals aged 60–64 years at the time of the first invitation (R1). The main outcome was repeat participation at their second (R2) or third (R3) invitation. Behavioural measures derived from screening records included late return of the gFOBt kit, compliance with follow-up investigations and previous screening participation. Other potential predictors of repeat participation included results of individual test kit analysis (normal, weak positive, strong positive, spoilt) and the definitive result of the gFOBt screening episode (normal or abnormal). Age, sex and socioeconomic deprivation were also recorded.Results:Overall repeat uptake was 86.6% in R2 and 88.6% in R3. Late return of the test kit was consistently associated with lower uptake (R2: 82.3% vs 88.6%, P<0.001; R3: 84.5% vs 90.5%, P<0.001). A definitive abnormal gFOBt result in the previous screening episode was a negative predictor of repeat uptake (R2: 61.4% vs 86.8%, P<0.001; R3: 65.7% vs 88.8%, P<0.001). Weak positive (R2: 76.9% vs 86.8%, P<0.001; R3: 81.7% vs 88.8%, P<0.05) and spoilt test kits (R2: 79.0% vs 86.6%, NS; R3: 84.2% vs 92.2%, P<0.05) were associated with lower repeat uptake, but were not consistently independent predictors in all invitation rounds or subgroups. Among those with a definitive abnormal gFOBt result, noncompliance with follow-up in a previous screening episode was also associated with lower repeat uptake (R2: 24.3% vs 67.1%, P<0.001; R3: 43.2% vs 69.9%, P<0.001).Conclusions:Behavioural markers and test results from previous screening episodes have been implicated in subsequent gFOBt uptake.

Modest agreement in ECG interpretation limits the application of ECG screening in young athletes.

Athlete ECG screening has been recommended by several international sporting bodies; however, a number of controversies remain regarding the accuracy of ECG screening. An important component that has not been assessed is the reproducibility of ECG interpretation. The purpose of this study was to assess the variability of ECG interpretation among experienced physicians when screening a large number of athletes. A sports cardiologist, a sports medicine physician, and an electrophysiologist analyzed 440 consecutive screening ECGs from asymptomatic athletes and were asked to classify the ECGs according to the 2010 European Society of Cardiology criteria as normal (or demonstrating training related ECG changes) or abnormal. When an abnormal ECG was identified, they were asked to outline what follow-up investigations they would recommend. The reported prevalence of abnormal ECGs ranged from 13.4% to 17.5%. Agreement on which ECGs were abnormal ranged from poor (κ = 0.297) to moderate (κ = 0.543) between observers. Suggested follow-up investigations were varied, and follow-up costs ranged from an additional A$30-A$129 per screening episode. Neither of the 2 subjects (0.45%) in the cohort with significant pathology diagnosed as a result of screening were identified correctly by all 3 physicians. Even when experienced physicians interpret athletes' ECGs according to current standards, there is significant interobserver variability that results in false-positive and false-negative results, thus reducing the effectiveness and increasing the social and economic cost of screening.

Nurses’ performance of using a screening tool to screen swallowing functions among hospitalized patients with acute stroke

Background: Nurses have an important role to identify swallowing difficulties of patients with acute stroke and initiate interventions that may prevent further complications. However, there is lack of use of screening tool by nurses to screen swallowing functions for patients with acute stroke. Objective: This longitudinal prospective study aimed to examine nurses’ performance of using a screening tool to screen swallowing functions among hospitalized patients with acute stroke. Methods: A screening tool designed for use by nurses, Standardized Swallowing Assessment (SSA), was used by 18 trained nurses in a neurological unit to screen swallowing functions among patients with acute stroke. All patients with acute stroke admitted to the hospital at the first 24 hours were screened with SSA by nurses and screened again weekly. The nurses identified patients who had swallowing difficulties after SSA screening and referred to physicians of physical medicine and rehabilitation and speech therapists for further assessments, and then initiated swallowing trainings. Results: During August, 2013 to April, 2014, nurses conducted 353 screening episodes for 202 patients with acute stroke. 44 patients with acute stroke were identified with dysphagia using SSA by nurses and made referrals. Swallowing trainings were conducted for these patients, and 13 had their nasogastric tubes removed after swallowing trainings. Discussion: Nurses become more confident in assessing swallowing functions after training of using the SSA. Nurses also had more competency in accurately identifying dysphagia and making proper referrals and initiating swallowing training early. Conclusion: A screening tool developed for nurses can help nurses to assess swallowing functions and accurately identify dysphagia among patients with acute stroke. Training on using the screening tool and making proper nursing care plans are needed for nurses to improve screening accuracy and competency, and further improve quality of care for stroke patients with dysphagia.

Screening of Paroxysmal Atrial Fibrillation after Ischemic Stroke: 48-Hour Holter Monitoring versus Prolonged Intermittent ECG Recording

Aims. Screening of paroxysmal atrial fibrillation (PAF) after ischemic stroke and TIA is important. The ideal method is not known and studies of intermittent screening methods in particular are lacking. In this retrospective study we compared a shorter continuous screening method with an intermittent screening method. Methods. Since early 2011 our stroke unit has used two different methods of screening: either a 48-hour continuous screening with Holter monitor or a 21-day twice daily intermittent screening with a hand-held ECG recorder. Through the Swedish National Stroke Registry and medical records reviewing all screening episodes between 2011-02-01 and 2013-01-31 were collected and analysed. Results. Of 386 screenings, 26 screenings were excluded leaving 360 screenings for the final analysis of which 114 screenings were made with hand-held ECG recorder and 246 with Holter monitoring. No significant difference between the groups concerning basic characteristics was observed. In the hand-held ECG recorder group a total of 13 PAF screenings (11.4%) were detected compared with 7 (2,8%) in the Holter group (P=0.001). Conclusions. A prolonged intermittent screening is a better method than a shorter continuous screening in terms of detecting PAF after ischemic stroke and TIA.