Screening Policy Research Articles

Cost-effectiveness of risk-based low-dose computed tomography screening for lung cancer in Switzerland.

Throughout Europe, computed tomography (CT) screening for lung cancer is in a phase of clinical implementation or reimbursement evaluation. To efficiently select individuals for screening, the use of lung cancer risk models has been suggested, but their incremental (cost-)effectiveness relative to eligibility based on pack-year criteria has not been thoroughly evaluated for a European setting. We evaluate the cost-effectiveness of pack-year and risk-based screening (PLCOm2012 model-based) strategies for Switzerland, which aided in informing the recommendations of the Swiss Cancer Screening Committee (CSC). We use the MISCAN (MIcrosimulation SCreening ANalysis)-Lung model to estimate benefits and harms of screening among individuals born 1940 to 1979 in Switzerland. We evaluate 1512 strategies, differing in the age ranges employed for screening, the screening interval and the strictness of the smoking requirements. We estimate risk-based strategies to be more cost-effective than pack-year-based screening strategies. The most efficient strategy compliant with CSC recommendations is biennial screening for ever-smokers aged 55 to 80 with a 1.6% PLCOm2012 risk. Relative to no screening this strategy is estimated to reduce lung cancer mortality by 11.0%, with estimated costs per Quality-Adjusted Life-Year (QALY) gained of €19 341, and a €1.990 billion 15-year budget impact. Biennial screening ages 55 to 80 for those with 20 pack-years shows a lower mortality reduction (10.5%) and higher cost per QALY gained (€20 869). Despite model uncertainties, our estimates suggest there may be cost-effective screening policies for Switzerland. Risk-based biennial screening ages 55 to 80 for those with ≥1.6% PLCOm2012 risk conforms to CSC recommendations and is estimated to be more efficient than pack-year-based alternatives.

Cost of the COVID-19 pandemic versus the cost-effectiveness of mitigation strategies in EU/UK/OECD: a systematic review

ObjectivesThe economic burden of COVID-19 pandemic is substantial, with both direct and indirect costs playing a significant role.DesignA systematic literature review was conducted to estimate the cost of the COVID-19...

Postnatal diagnosis of congenital anomalies despite active systematic prenatal screening policies: a population-based registry study

Prenatal screening for congenital anomalies is an important component of maternity care, with continual advances in screening technology. However, few recent studies have investigated the overall effectiveness of a systematic policy of prenatal screening for congenital anomalies, such as in France where an ultrasound per trimester is recommended for all pregnant individuals. This study aimed to assess the proportion and the type of congenital anomalies that are not detected during pregnancy. The study population included all singleton fetuses and newborns with congenital anomalies from the Paris Registry of Congenital Malformations (remaPAR) from 2001 to 2021. The registry includes all live births and stillbirths at ≥22 weeks of gestation and terminations of pregnancy for fetal anomaly at any gestational age with congenital anomalies diagnosed from the prenatal period until discharge home from hospital after birth. The prevalence of postnatally detected congenital anomalies was estimated overall and for 5-year intervals within the study period. We also reported the proportion of postnatal detection by subgroups of congenital anomalies according to the EUROCAT classification. Of the 16,602 malformed singleton fetuses and newborns, 32.7% were detected postnatally. Of those with severe anomalies, 11.9% were detected postnatally. The postnatal detection rate decreased from 34.3% from 2001 to 2005, to 27.8% from 2016 to 2021 (P<.001). Anomalies most frequently detected postnatally were genital anomalies (n=969; 87.0%), followed by ear, neck, and face anomalies (n=71; 78.0%), eye anomalies (n=154; 74.0%), and limb anomalies (n=1802; 68.4%). Anomalies of the kidneys and the urinary tract (n=219; 7.1%) and the abdominal wall (n=37; 8.7%) were least likely to be detected after birth. Among the anomalies classified as severe, postnatal detection rates were highest for limb reduction defects (n=142; 40.6%), complete transposition of the great arteries (n=31; 17.6%), and diaphragmatic hernia (n=26; 17.2%). Despite improvement of prenatal screening over a 20-year period, our results show that there is still a margin for improvement in prenatal diagnosis of congenital anomalies.

Mortality due to malignant neoplasms of the liver and intrahepatic biliary tract in the state of Mato Grosso in 2020

Malignant neoplasms of the liver and intrahepatic biliary tract occupy the third place of cancer deaths in the world and the second most deadly in men and the sixth in women. Eating habits characterized by the consumption of food with high caloric and glycemic indexes, associated with a sedentary lifestyle, provide a greater risk of developing hepatic steatosis, as well as obesity, which, together with the increased incidence of chronic viral hepatitis, excessive alcoholism, and age over 50 years, constitute the main risk factors for the development of these types of cancer. In addition, due to the chronicity of liver pathologies, the diagnosis is usually late, a factor that contributes to increase the mortality rate. Thus, the objective of this work is to analyze the epidemiological profile of deaths due to liver cancer and intrahepatic biliary tract that occurred in the state of Mato Grosso in 2020. This is a cross-sectional study based on data from the Mortality Information System (SIM), made available by the Department of Informatics of the Unified Health System (DATASUS), and in the population estimate of the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) for 2020. A study was carried out of the epidemiological profile of deaths related to liver and intrahepatic biliary ducts neoplasms (CID 10 C-22) of the state of Mato Grosso for the year 2020 regarding age group, sex (gender), and race. A total of 120 deaths due to malignant neoplasms of the liver and intrahepatic biliary tract were reported, corresponding to a mortality rate of approximately 3.4 deaths/100,000 inhabitants, with the proportion of deaths between men and women approximately 4:3. For both sexes, there is an abrupt increase in the incidence of deaths after the sixth decade of life, corresponding to 90% of deaths due to this pathology. Regarding the racial evaluation, deaths are more incident in the yellow race, with about 4.97 deaths/100,000 inhabitants, followed by the black race with 4.87 deaths/100,000 inhabitants. Thus, it is evident that deaths from liver and intrahepatic biliary tract malignant neoplasms in the state of Mato Grosso, in 2020, were concentrated from the sixth decade of life, especially in men, with emphasis on the yellow race. It should be noted that the analysis of epidemiological characteristics is essential for the development of screening policies and early diagnosis in patients with modifiable and non-modifiable risk factors.

Cessation of Rectal Screening for Vancomycin-Resistant Enterococci: Experience from a Tertiary Care Hospital from Türkiye.

Here, we compared the impact of different polices on the epidemiology of Vancomycin-resistant Enterococcus faecium bloodstream infections (VRE-BSIs) in a tertiary care hospital including two hospital buildings (oncology and adult hospitals) in the same campus. All patients who were hospitalized in high-risk units were screened weekly for VRE colonization via rectal swab between January 2006 and January 2013. After January 2013, VRE screening was only performed in cases of suspicion of VRE outbreak and during point prevalence studies to evaluate the epidemiology of VRE colonization. Contact precautions were in place for all VRE-positive patients. The incidence density rates of hospital-acquired (HA)-VRE-BSIs were compared between two periods. While the rate of VRE colonization was higher in the second period (5% vs. 9.5% (p < 0.01) for the adult hospital, and 6.4% vs. 12% (p = 0.02 for the oncology hospital), there was no increase in the incidence rate HA-VRE BSIs after the cessation of routine rectal screening in either of the hospitals. Screening policies should be dynamic and individualized according to the epidemiology of VRE as well as the workforce and cost. Periodical rectal screening of VRE can be discontinued if suspicion of an outbreak can be carefully monitored.

Predictors of survival among patients with chronic hepatitis C at a tertiary care center in Oman.

Chronic hepatitis C (CHC) is a leading cause of cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) worldwide. This study aimed to determine rates and predictors of survival among Omani patients with CHC at a tertiary hospital in Muscat, Oman. This ambidirectional cohort study included all CHC patients who presented to the Sultan Qaboos University Hospital between January 2009 and December 2017. Baseline demographic, clinical, laboratory, and radiological data were analyzed. Patients were followed-up until death or the endpoint of the study (April 2022) to determine survival and associations with other parameters. A total of 702 CHC patients were included, of which 398 (56.7%) were under 50 years of age and 477 (67.9%) were male. Overall, 180 patients (25.6%) died by the study endpoint. The mean duration of follow-up was 93.3 ± 48.0 months. The 5-year survival rate was estimated to be 80.5%, while the 10-year survival was 73%. Sustained virological response and the absence of diabetes mellitus, chronic kidney disease, HCC, or other malignancies were associated with significantly better overall survival. The 3- and 5-year survival rate of patients with hepatitis C virus (HCV)-related HCC was 46.5% and 27.6%, respectively, with a median survival of 29.5 months. Co-infection with hepatitis B was associated with poor survival among this subgroup; conversely, early HCV screening and the presence of a single HCC lesion were associated with better overall survival. National policies for early CHC screening and rapid treatment are needed to improve survival rates in this population.

Global burden of early-onset colorectal cancer among people aged 40-49years from 1990 to 2019 and predictions to 2030.

To explore the disease burden of early-onset colorectal cancer (EO-CRC) in individuals aged 40-49years and provide baseline evidence for routine recommended age adjustment for CRC screening and other clinical decision-making. We collected data stratified by sex, risk factors, and socio-demographic index (SDI) from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 Data Resources. Trends in disease burden were analyzed by estimated annual percentage change. The Bayesian age-period-cohort model predicted the burden over the following 10years. In 2019, the global rates of incidence, mortality, prevalence, and disability-adjusted life year (DALY) of EO-CRC in people aged 40-44years were 11.48 (95% uncertainty interval: 10.50-12.59), 4.35 (4.01-4.70), 72.63 (66.48-79.52), 209.82 (193.55-226.59) per 100,000 population. For people aged 45-49years, the rates of these four estimates were 19.63 (17.97-21.54), 7.76 (7.16-8.41), 121.73 (110.99-133.84), and 335.83 (310.14-362.91), respectively. The incidence and prevalence rates for both age groups increased while the mortality and DALY rates remained stable from 1990 to 2019. In 2019, high-income North America had the highest incidence and prevalence rates. A low milk diet accounted for the largest proportion of global DALYs in EO-CRC, and there was a tendency for the DALY rate first to increase and then decrease with increasing SDI. The incidence and mortality rates were predicted to increase in the next 10years. The current and future burden of EO-CRC among people aged 40-49years is heavy. Substantial variation exists in disease burden across regions and countries. Urgent screening actions and policies are needed.

Development of newborn screening policies in Spain 2003-2022: what do we actually need to reach an agreement?

Newborn screening (NBS) for inherited disorders is recognized as an essential public health intervention to improve health outcomes in the newborn population. The implementation of an NBS programme requires an evaluation of effectiveness, safety, cost-effectiveness, feasibility, and budget impact. Determining which of the known disorders should be included in NBS programmes is a public health policy challenge. In this context, economic evaluation aims to contribute to the sustainability of public health systems, but the appropriate economic evaluation framework for these interventions is still unclear. Existing NBS programmes vary widely in the number and type of disorders screened, even among the most developed European countries, despite the fact that the core criteria for guiding policy decision-making are standard. In Spain, where delivery of NBS programmes is marked by heterogeneity between regions, guidelines based on the best available scientific evidence are being established in order to achieve standardization of NBS policies and programmes at a national level. This paper provides a general overview of existing evidence-based health-policy initiatives aimed at enhancing the equity and efficiency of the NBS programme in Spain and their impact on health decisions. We also describe existing challenges to reduce uncertainty, and the variations observed in decisions relating to the content and procedures used in NBS programmes.

Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Risk Factor-Based Lung Cancer Screening Program by Low-Dose Computer Tomography in Current Smokers in China.

Although the effectiveness of lung cancer screening by low-dose computed tomography (LDCT) could be shown in China, there could be variation in the evidence concerning the economic impact. Our study explores the cost-effectiveness of lung cancer screening and optimizes the best definition of a high-risk population. A Markov model consisting of the natural history and post-diagnosis states was constructed to estimate the costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) of LDCT screening compared with no screening. A total of 36 distinct risk factor-based screening strategies were assessed by incorporating starting ages of 40, 45, 50, 55, 60 and 65 years, stopping ages of 69, 74 and 79 years as well as smoking eligibility criteria. Screening data came from community-based mass screening with LDCT for lung cancer in Guangzhou. Compared with no screening, all screening scenarios led to incremental costs and QALYs. When the willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold was USD37,653, three times the gross domestic product (GDP) per capita in China, six of nine strategies on the efficiency frontier may be cost-effective. Annual screening between 55 and 79 years of age for those who smoked more than 20 pack-years, which yielded an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of USD35,000.00 per QALY gained, was considered optimal. In sensitivity analyses, the result was stable in most cases. The trends of the results are roughly the same in scenario analyses. According to the WTP threshold of different regions, the optimal screening strategies were annual screening for those who smoked more than 20 pack-years, between 50 and 79 years of age in Zhejiang province, 55-79 years in Guangdong province and 65-74 years in Yunnan province. However, annual screening was unlikely to be cost-effective in Heilongjiang province under our modelling assumptions, indicating that tailored screening policies should be made regionally according to the local epidemiological and economic situation.

Thyrotropin Screening of Newborns: Before or After 72 Hours of Life? Before Discharge or at Home?

Objective: Until November 2019 in Belgium, dried blood spot (DBS) sampling was performed between 72 and 120 hours of life, when a majority of newborns had already been discharged from the maternity. In November 2019, the policy for newborn screening in South Belgium changed to allow sampling as soon as 48 hours of life, with the objective to accelerate the process and to allow more sampling during the hospital stay. Our objective was to evaluate the impact of this policy modification and, in particular, to assess the effectiveness of screening for hypothyroidism based on sampling before or after 72 hours of life, as well as to compare the effectiveness of DBS collection before discharge or at home. Methods: This retrospective study included live births ≥37 weeks of gestation, screened by the Université Libre de Bruxelles Newborn Screening Center between January 2019 and December 2021. To evaluate the efficiency of early sampling, we compared thyrotropin (TSH) results for screening <72 hours and screening ≥72 hours. We also compared TSH results of DBS performed before discharge with those performed at home. Results: A total of 53,794 newborns were included. The results of 24,816 healthy newborns screened before 72 hours of life and of 28,978 healthy newborns screened between 72 and 144 hours of life were compared. The median TSH level was similar (1.50 and 1.20 mU/L, respectively). The percentage of false positives was similar (0.08% and 0.07%, respectively). Earlier sampling, before 72 hours, allowed treatment of positive cases at 6 days rather than 8.5 days. DBS sampling at home resulted in longer delay for transferring the sample to the laboratory (a median of 3.0 days for hospital sampling vs. 5.0 days for home sampling). A poorer quality of home blood sampling was observed, with 0.27% unusable samples compared with 0.06% unusable samples for hospital sampling (p < 0.001). Conclusions: In term newborns, TSH screening before discharge, as early as 48 hours of life, is a valid strategy. It allows earlier treatment of positive cases, does not increase the percentage of false positives, and results in fewer unusable samples.

Breast cancer risk assessment and risk distribution in 3,491 Slovenian women invited for screening at the age of 50; a population-based cross-sectional study.

The evidence shows that risk-based strategy could be implemented to avoid unnecessary harm in mammography screening for breast cancer (BC) using age-only criterium. Our study aimed at identifying the uptake of Slovenian women to the BC risk assessment invitation and assessing the number of screening mammographies in case of risk-based screening. A cross-sectional population-based study enrolled 11,898 women at the age of 50, invited to BC screening. The data on BC risk factors, including breast density from the first 3,491 study responders was collected and BC risk was assessed using the Tyrer-Cuzick algorithm (version 8) to classify women into risk groups (low, population, moderately increased, and high risk group). The number of screening mammographies according to risk stratification was simulated. 57% (6,785) of women returned BC risk questionnaires. When stratifying 3,491 women into risk groups, 34.0% were assessed with low, 62.2% with population, 3.4% with moderately increased, and 0.4% with high 10-year BC risk. In the case of potential personalised screening, the number of screening mammographies would drop by 38.6% compared to the current screening policy. The study uptake showed the feasibility of risk assessment when inviting women to regular BC screening. 3.8% of Slovenian women were recognised with higher than population 10-year BC risk. According to Slovenian BC guidelines they may be screened more often. Overall, personalised screening would decrease the number of screening mammographies in Slovenia. This information is to be considered when planning the pilot and assessing the feasibility of implementing population risk-based screening.

Exploring teachers’ experiences in implementing the Screening, identification, assessment and support policy in South Africa

Inclusion and equitable education, as articulated by the fourth sustainable development goal and anticipated by 2030 seems hard to attain in a context where teachers’ practices are inconsistent with inclusive national policies. In the study reported on here we investigated South African teachers’ experiences in implementing the screening, identification, assessment, and support (SIAS) policy in their classrooms. The intersectionality of colliding worldviews and the pedagogy of discomfort were used as conceptual framework. We adopted a qualitative case study within an interpretive paradigm. Twelve teachers were purposively selected from 3 focus group discussions. The results reveal that a disconnect between the inclusive policy and classroom practices occurs because teachers have negative attitudes towards using the document and feel inadequately trained to implement it. We conclude with 3 essential lessons about teachers’ disengagement with the policy: (i) teachers are reluctant to complete the SIAS documents because of the added administrative burden and a lack of knowledge about inclusive education; (ii) more experienced teachers influence the worldviews of newly qualified teachers (NQTs); and (iii) inclusive education training conducted by the district-based support team (DBST) is inadequate resulting in a disconnect between practice and pedagogical practices.

Carrier screening programs for rare diseases in developed countries and the case of Turkey: A systematic review.

Effective control of rare diseases requires health programs based on principles of protection and prevention. Carrier screening programs serve as preventive measures by identifying at-risk groups. This review examines the impact, implementation, advantages, and disadvantages of carrier screening, incorporating examples from ten countries: the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, Israel, China, Australia, Italy, Germany, the Netherlands, and Turkey. Data on carrier screening and related policies were collected from July to November 2022 and presented in a tabular format using a coding system devised by the authors. Variability was observed in the diseases/disorders and populations screened, screening expenses, and government provision across the countries. The number of diseases/disorders examined, ranging from 3 to 47, was determined by committee guidelines, government resources, pilot studies, and national institute resources. Notably, carrier screening programs exhibited greater worldwide inconsistency compared to newborn screening programs. The comparative analysis of developed countries serves to guide emerging nations. To address inequalities at both local and global levels, there is a need to enhance the establishment, development, and implementation of carrier screening programs. Furthermore, cost analyses of screening should be conducted, and adequate funding should be allocated to countries. In conclusion, this review highlights the preventive potential of carrier screening for rare diseases and emphasizes the importance of improving carrier screening programs globally to achieve equitable healthcare outcomes.

Is there an association between intimate partner violence and the prevalence of cervical cancer screening in Jordan?

Major health inequalities exist surrounding the utilisation of cervical cancer screening services globally. Jordan, a low- and middle-income country, has poor screening rates (15.8%), with barriers to accessing services, including lack of education. Emerging studies demonstrate that intimate partner violence (IPV) impacts reproductive health decisions. As a large proportion of Jordanian women have reported experiencing IPV, this study examines the association between IPV and cervical cancer screening in Jordan, the first of its kind using national-level data. Using Jordan's Demographic Health Survey 2017-18, cervical cancer screening awareness and self-reported screening were estimated in participants who answered questions on IPV (n = 6679). After applying sample weights, Heckman's two-stage probit model determined the association of awareness and utilisation of cervical cancer screening with experience of IPV, adjusting for the socio-economic factors. Of the women with privacy to answer the IPV module, 180 (3.4%) were found to be victims of sexual violence, 691 of physical violence (12.6%) and 935 (16.2%) of emotional violence. Women subjected to sexual violence were less likely to admit to having awareness of a Pap smear test; however, this did not impact screening rates. Victims of emotional violence were more likely to be screened than non-victims. No association between physical violence and cervical cancer screening was found. A significant association between cervical screening awareness and IPV demonstrates that cancer screening policies must consider IPV among women to improve screening awareness. The paper further sheds light on the paradoxical association between emotional violence and screening. It is acknowledged this situation may be far worse than reported, as women without autonomy were unlikely to answer IPV questions that may endanger them-targeted surveys on cervical cancer screening warrant further investigation.

EBCOG position statement on Inequalities in screening for cervical and breast cancer

Gynaecological cancers, namely breast and cervical cancer represent a high burden in women’s health. It is well established that cervical and breast cancer screening programmes are effective in reducing morbidity and mortality. It is of the most importance to define strategies to provide a universal access to screening. In European countries, significant progress has been made over the past years concerning screening strategies, namely the choice of screening test, its frequency as well as the age to start and stop the screening. Introduction of Human Papillomavirus vaccination programmes is also making a measurable impact to reduce cervical cancer prevalence and mortality. Our survey has shown a variation among European countries in delivery of cervical and breast cancer screening programmes. These variations can be due to organizational, economic or cultural reasons. The European Board and College of Obstetrics and Gynaecology calls for an implementation of a unified policy of prevention, screening and early detection of cervical and breast cancer across Europe to optimize clinical outcomes and reduce variations.

Effect of Postpartum Depression on Infant Safety Practices in Korea

ObjectiveTo describe the prevalence of postpartum depression in a sample of Korean women and to examine the effect of postpartum depression on their adoption of safety practices for their infants. DesignSecondary, cross-sectional. SettingSouth Korea. ParticipantsA total of 3,127 women who gave birth in 2020. MethodsWe applied a complex sample design analysis using the national survey data on postpartum care in South Korea. We analyzed the data using weighted multivariate logistic regression to determine the association between postpartum depression and the adoption of five safety practices for infants. ResultsA total 42.7% (n = 1,319) of our participants had symptoms of postpartum depression during the initial 7 days after birth. Participants who had postpartum depression were less likely to engage in certain safety practices for infants. ConclusionWe propose a proactive approach to promote an improved policy for postpartum depression screening alongside a comprehensive program that offers guidance and education to mothers suffering with postpartum depression. The primary objective is to empower these mothers with essential skills that can effectively ensure the safety of their infants.

Global, regional, and national burden of digestive diseases: findings from the global burden of disease study 2019.

The global burden of digestive diseases has been rising in the last 30 years. The rates and trends of incidence, deaths, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for digestive diseases need to be investigated. We extracted the data on overall digestive diseases and by cause between 1990-2019 from the Global Burden of Diseases 2019 website, including the absolute number and the corresponding age-standardized rates of incidence (ASIR), deaths (ASDR), and DALYs (ASDALYs). Globally, the incident cases, deaths, and DALYs of digestive diseases in 2019 increased by 74.44, 37.85, and 23.46%, respectively, compared with that in 1990, with an increasing ASIR of 0.09%, as well as decreasing ASDR and ASDALYs of 1.38 and 1.32% annually. The sociodemographic index (SDI) of overall digestive diseases showed a slight increase in ASIR from low to middle-low regions. The downtrend in ASDR and ASDALYs was found in all SDI regions. The burden of incidence was higher in females, while the burden of deaths and DALYs was higher in males for the overall digestive diseases and most causes. The estimated annual percentage changes were significantly associated with the baseline ASIR, ASDR, and ASDALYs for the overall digestive diseases, and the negative correlations between ASDR, ASDALYs, and human development index both in 1990 (R = -0.68, R = -0.69) and 2019 (R = -0.71, R = -0.73) were noticed. The findings indicate that digestive diseases remain a significant public health burden, with substantial variation across countries, sexes, and age groups. Therefore, implementing age, gender, and country-specific policies for early screening and targeted interventions could significantly reduce the global burden of digestive diseases.

Economic Evaluation of Wastewater Surveillance Combined with Clinical COVID-19 Screening Tests, Japan.

The COVID-19 pandemic has imposed substantial burdens on the global society. To find an optimal combination of wastewater surveillance and clinical testing for tracking COVID-19, we evaluated the economic efficiency of hypothetical screening options at a single facility in Japan. To conduct cost-benefit analyses, we developed standard decision models in which we assumed model parameters from literature and primary data, such as screening policies used at the Tokyo Olympic and Paralympic Village in 2021. We compared hypothetical 2-step screening options that used clinical PCR to diagnose COVID-19 after a positive result from primary screening using antigen tests (option 1) or wastewater surveillance (option 2). Our simulation results indicated that option 2 likely would be economically more justifiable than option 1, particularly at lower incidence levels. Our findings could help justify and promote the use of wastewater surveillance as a primary screening at a facility level for COVID-19 and other infectious diseases.

Seroprevalence and associated risk factors of hepatitis C infection among diabetic patients in South-Kivu, Eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo: A cross-sectional study.

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection and diabetes mellitus (DM) are two frequent diseases in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and several studies seem to show a link between the two diseases worldwide. However, no study has evaluated this link in our country. The present study aimed at determining the seroprevalence of HCV in diabetic patients as well as associated risk factors. A multicenter cross-sectional study allowed us to sample diabetic patients in two diabetic healthcare centers of Bukavu city in the eastern part of the DRC, from December 2020 to December 2022. A questionnaire was submitted to the diabetic patients to collect sociodemographic data, anamnestic data on risk factors for HCV infection, and clinical data on DM. These factors were analyzed based on anti-HCV serological results. Among the 180 selected patients, 19 (10.6%) were tested positive for anti-HCV antibodies. After multivariate analysis, the identified factors influencing these outcomes were male sex (adjusted odds ratio [aOR]: 3.5, p = 0.027), dental extraction (aOR: 7.6, p = 0.001), and living in a privileged environment (aOR: 0.29, p = 0.03). The factors related to DM such as the type, the disease duration, or the usual type of treatment did not influence the serological results. This study shows that HCV seroprevalence in diabetic patients is very high compared with the general population. This suggests combined screening and management policies in this population.

NSDAR: A neural network-based model for similar day screening and electric load forecasting

The load forecasting methods based on similar days has been widely studied in decades, where similar days were mostly used as an auxiliary means to improve model performance. The process of transitioning from similar days to load forecasting results requires the use of complex models, which are often opaque and lack interpretability. Thus, this paper proposes a new method called NSDAR (Neural-based Similar Days Auto Regression) based on the similar days analyses. Different from the conventional methods based on similarity of meteorological factors or simple policy for similar day screening, the NSDAR uses neural networks for similar day screening, which can detect many unconventional similar days that are difficult for people to notice, and in order to obtain interpretable load forecasting results, NSDAR uses a linear model to generate load forecasting results based on the similar day screening result. In addition, the model results can also be used for regional load analysis, load clustering, and other purposes. This paper guides the structural design of the model through theoretical derivation and verifies the feasibility of this method. NSDAR performs well in similar day screening and load forecasting tasks, and its results have better interpretability compared to the other existing load forecasting models.