Land Use Change Scenarios Research Articles

Species-specific nature conservation prioritization (a combination of MaxEnt, Co$ting Nature and DINAMICA EGO modeling approaches)

The rapid process of land use and cover changes can be regarded as the most crucial human-induced factor, which is responsible for the wildlife habitats destruction. While focusing on habitat features of the keystone species with broad habitat requirements, it will be possible to provide nature conservation priority maps under different scenarios of landuse and land cover change for the future. In this study, an integrated dynamic model was developed to provide prioritized nature conservation maps for the future, relying on the ecosystem services while focusing on a keystone large carnivorous species based on the prediction of future landuse changes in Karaj district, Alborz Province, northwestern Iran. This study aimed to model the suitability of habitats for brown bears, classify the conservation priorities based on the ecosystem services, and simulate future changes of landuse or land cover to advise on the protection of biodiversity. Our results indicated that such a multi approached based modeling can better show the conservation needs and priorities of the lands for a proposed time in the future. In the case of the study area, Karaj district, we found that if the current pattern of land use and land cover change is going on continuously, we will miss significant parts of the critical habitats and their vital ecosystem services in the near future. Based on the results, The results represented the importance of adopting an integrated approach based on the combination of conservation of focal species (MaxEnt), ecosystem oriented (Co$ting Nature) method as well as applying a land use prediction model (DINAMICA EGO) to show the ability of protected areas in assuring wildlife and biodiversity reservoirs long term viability in future spatial planning.

Increasing salinization and organic carbon burial rates in seagrass meadows from an anthropogenically-modified coastal lagoon in southern Gulf of Mexico

Intertidal ecosystems, such as marshes, mangroves, and seagrasses, contribute to the global carbon storage, helping to regulate atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Organic carbon (Corg) data from seagrass meadows in the Mexican coastline are still scarce, preventing appropriate evaluations of its contribution to mitigate global climate change. Recent temporal changes (≤100 years) of Corg concentrations and burial rates were assessed in 210Pb dated cores from seagrass meadows at Terminos Lagoon, the largest coastal lagoon in the southern Gulf of Mexico. Irrespective of the predominant seagrass species, the cores showed comparable Corg concentrations (0.04–3.9%) and burial rates (2.5 – 66.7 g m−2 yr−1). Increasing salinization, likely caused by sea level rise, favoured Corg concentrations and burial rates in sediments with Halodule wrightii, while in sediments with Thalassia testudinum only Corg burial rates increased, owing to increasing mass accumulation rates, likely promoted by erosion induced by land use changes, and sea level rise. The mean Corg stock (1 m depth; 130 ± 29 Mg ha−1) was comparable with the global average Corg stock for seagrasses in other tropical areas around the world. Our results suggested that, under the current scenario of land use change and marine transgression, the seagrass meadows in Terminos Lagoon preserve the capacity for Corg accumulation and long-term preservation. However, both factors are also known to reduce seagrass resilience caused by water quality deterioration, thus these ecosystems must be monitored and protected from global change impacts, as part of climate change mitigation efforts.

Interactive effects of climate variability and human activities on blue and green water scarcity in rapidly developing watershed

Quantifying the spatiotemporal distribution of water resources is still a key constraint on water resources management against the background of climate change and human activities. To investigate the interaction of climate variability and human activities on blue and green water scarcity (BW and GW-scarcity), the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) model was used to simulate BW and GW-scarcity and its spatiotemporal distribution under scenarios of single or combined land-use change and climate variability. Multivariate statistical methods were used to identify the main factors affecting blue/green water and confirm the hot spots of water management. Taking the rapidly-developing Xiangjiang River Basin (XRB) in China as an example, where the urbanization rate increased from 42.15% in 2008 to 56.02% in 2018, the results showed that BW-scarcity was mainly affected by precipitation (r = 0.425) and population (r = −0.612), while GW-scarcity was mainly affected by agriculture (r = 0.429) and urban land (r = −0.593). The hot spot areas of blue and green water (BW and GW) shortage accounted for 29.7%, 4.6% and 3.4% of the total area in the lower reach, middle reach and upper reach of XRB, respectively. The rapid development of urbanization in the lower reach of the XRB caused serious shortage of BW and GW resources. This study would provide useful information for water resources management in corresponding human-water system. Future research should focus on how to optimize water resource allocation upstream and downstream of the basin.

Distinct and combined impacts of climate and land use scenarios on water availability and sediment loads for a water supply reservoir in northern Morocco

The objective of this study was to examine the impacts of climate and land use changes on water availability and sediment loads for a water supply reservoir in northern Morocco using data-intensive simulation models in a data-scarce region. Impacts were assessed by comparing the simulated water and sediment entering the reservoir between the future period 2031–2050 and the 1983–2010 reference period. Three scenarios of land use change and two scenarios of climate change were developed in the Tleta watershed. Simulations under current and future conditions were performed using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. The simulations showed that climate change will lead to a significant decrease in the annual water supply to the reservoir (−16.9% and −27.5%) and in the annual volume of sediment entering the reservoir (−7.4% and −12.6%), depending on the climate change scenarios tested. The three scenarios of land use change will lead to a moderate change in annual water inflow into the reservoir (between −6.7% and +6.2%), while causing a significant decrease in sediment entering the reservoir (−37% to −24%). The combined impacts of climate and land use changes will cause a reduction in annual water availability (−9.9% to −33.3%) and sediment supplies (−28.7% to −45.8%). As a result, the lifetime of the reservoir will be extended, but at the same time, the risk of water shortages will increase, especially from July to March. Therefore, alternative water resources must be considered.

Analysing trade-offs and synergies between SDGs for urban development, food security and poverty alleviation in rapidly changing peri-urban areas: a tool to support inclusive urban planning

Transitional peri-urban contexts are frontiers for sustainable development where land-use change involves negotiation and contestation between diverse interest groups. Multiple, complex trade-offs between outcomes emerge which have both negative and positive impacts on progress towards achieving Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). These trade-offs are often overlooked in policy and planning processes which depend on top-down expert perspectives and rely on course grain aggregate data which does not reflect complex peri-urban dynamics or the rapid pace of change. Tools are required to address this gap, integrate data from diverse perspectives and inform more inclusive planning processes. In this paper, we draw on a reinterpretation of empirical data concerned with land-use change and multiple dimensions of food security from the city of Wuhan in China to illustrate some of the complex trade-offs between SDG goals that tend to be overlooked with current planning approaches. We then describe the development of an interactive web-based tool that implements deep learning methods for fine-grained land-use classification of high-resolution remote sensing imagery and integrates this with a flexible method for rapid trade-off analysis of land-use change scenarios. The development and potential use of the tool are illustrated using data from the Wuhan case study example. This tool has the potential to support participatory planning processes by providing a platform for multiple stakeholders to explore the implications of planning decisions and land-use policies. Used alongside other planning, engagement and ecosystem service mapping tools it can help to reveal invisible trade-offs and foreground the perspectives of diverse stakeholders. This is vital for building approaches which recognise how trade-offs between the achievement of SDGs can be influenced by development interventions.

Short-term changes in soil pore size distribution: Impact of land use

Changes in land use affect the pore size distribution (PSD) of the soil, and hence important soil functions such as gas exchange, water availability and plant growth. The objective of this study was to investigate potentially damaging and restorative soil management practices on soil pore structure. We quantified the rate of change in PSD six years after changes in land use taking advantage of the Highfield land-use change experiment at Rothamsted Research. This experiment includes short-term soil degradation and restoration scenarios established simultaneously within long-term contrasting treatments that had reached steady-state equilibrium. The land-use change scenarios comprised conversion to grassland of previously arable or bare fallow soil, and conversion of grassland to arable and bare fallow soils. In the laboratory, we exposed intact soil cores (100 cm3) to matric potentials ranging from −10 hPa to -1.5 MPa. Based on equivalent soil mass, the plant available water capacity decreased after conversion from grassland, whereas no change was observed after conversion to grassland. Structural void ratio decreased after termination of grassland and introduction of grassland in bare fallow soil, while no change was seen when changing arable to grassland. Consequently, it was faster to degrade than to restore a complex soil structure. The study illustrates that introducing grassland in degraded soil may result in short-term increase in soil density.

Impacts of future climate and land use change on water yield in a semiarid basin in Iran

AbstractStudying the interaction between hydrology, land use, and climate change is necessary to support sustainable water resources management. It is unknown how land management interventions in dry climate conditions can benefit water yield in the context of climate and land use change interactions. In this study, we assessed the effects of both land use and predicted climate change on the Mordagh Chay basin water yield using the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs model. First, we modeled the current water yield, followed by developing six combined climate–land use scenarios until 2030 based on the CCSM4 climate model for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. We used three future land use scenarios simulated by the Dyna‐CLUE model. The trend scenario of land use change, which does not include any improvements in irrigation efficiency, significantly affected basin water yield under both climate scenarios. Water yield decreases by 19.8% and 31.8% for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. Under all land use scenarios that included improvements in irrigation efficiency, the water yield responded positively. For the RCP4.5 scenario, the water yield was projected to increase between 16.6% and 18% depending on the land use scenario. The increase in water yield under the RCP8.5 climate scenario was much lower than for the RCP4.5 scenario (about one‐third). Overall, the results showed that by adopting appropriate irrigation efficiency, it is possible to achieve a better balance between environmental needs and regional economic and agricultural development. The results provide insight into possible sustainable development options and also provide guidance for managing the other Urmia Lake sub‐basins, whereas the approach of integrated assessment of climate, land use change, and land management options is also applicable in other conditions to help inform sustainable management.

Linking Nitrous Oxide and Nitric Oxide Fluxes to Microbial Communities in Tropical Forest Soils and Oil Palm Plantations in Malaysia in Laboratory Incubations

Current understanding of greenhouse gas (GHG) fluxes associated with land-use change from forest to oil palm on mineral soil is not sufficient to provide reliable estimates of emission rates or advice on GHG mitigation strategies. Monocultures of oil palm have expanded in Southeast Asia, mostly replacing tropical forests. The limited data available have indicated that the land-use conversion is associated with a potentially aggravated GHG burden, including nitrous oxide (N2O) and nitric oxide (NO) emissions, with unclear underlying biological mechanisms. In this study, we investigated N2O and NO emission potentials of tropical soils with different land-uses from Sabah, Malaysian Borneo, under laboratory incubation. Under similar controlled conditions, logged forest and oil palm soils showed high and similar potentials of N2O and NO emissions following increase in soil moisture, while the emissions were negligible in a riparian reserve soil irrespective of moisture conditions. Soil N2O and NO emission rates from logged forest soils and oil palm (OP) plantations were of similar magnitude, with average fluxes over the 35 and 22 day incubation periods, respectively, of 11.5 and 1.6 ng N g-1 h-1 (OP) and 15.6 and 6.0 ng N g-1 h-1 (logged forest). Contrarily, the riparian reserve soil did not respond to rewetting and nitrogen application and fluxes were negligible. Furthermore, N2O fluxes were on average about 10 times higher than NO fluxes. The fact that forest soils also have the potential to emit large amounts of N2O and NO, has important implications for land-use change scenarios in the tropics, especially as some scenarios suggest atmospheric N deposition is likely to drastically increase in tropical regions due to biomass burning, increased N-fertilizer use and fossil fuel consumption. Quantification of related gene transcripts implied that Proteobacterial nirS and AniA-nirK (betaproteobacterial clade of Neisseria) containing denitrifiers might continuously contribute to the N2O emissions, while the nitrifiers (ammonia oxidizing archaea in this study) are conditionally active to produce N2O. This study therefore provides some evidence for N2O and NO emissions associated with phylogenetically diverse groups of microorganisms, which might be of importance in modulating the GHG emissions under different land-uses and field conditions.

Modelling Impacts of a Municipal Spatial Plan of Land-Use Changes on Surface Water Quality—Example from Goriška Brda in Slovenia

Intensive agriculture causes nutrient leaching and accelerates erosion processes, which threatens the good quality status of surface waters, as proposed by the European Union (EU) Water Framework Directive. The purpose of this study was to define the impact of two alternative agricultural land-use change scenarios defined in a Municipal Spatial Plan on surface water quality by using the Agricultural Policy/Environmental eXtender (APEX) model. As experimental area, we chose a small Kožbanjšček stream catchment (1464 ha) situated in the Goriška Brda region in Slovenia. The area, due to favorable conditions for vineyards, is facing increasing deforestation. The change of 66.3 ha of forests to vineyards would increase the sediment, nitrate, and phosphorus loads in the stream by 24.8%, 17.1%, and 10.7%, respectively. With the implementation of vegetative buffer strips as a mitigation measure of the current situation, we could reduce the sediment, nitrate, and phosphorus loads by 17.9%, 11.1%, and 3.1%, respectively, while a combination of the two land-use change scenarios would result in a slight increase of the above-mentioned loads, corresponding to 0.61%, 2.1%, and 6.6%, respectively, compared to the baseline situation. The results confirm that, as we can increase pollution levels with deforestation, we can also reduce water pollution by choosing proper types of land management measures.

Modeling response of water quality parameters to land-use and climate change in a temperate, mesotrophic lake

Lake Auburn, Maine, USA, is a historically unproductive lake that has experienced multiple algal blooms since 2011. The lake is the water supply source for a population of ~60,000. We modeled past temperature, and concentrations of dissolved oxygen (DO) and phosphorus (P) in Lake Auburn by considering the catchment and internal contributions of P as well as atmospheric factors, and predicted the change in lake water quality in response to future climate and land-use changes. A stream hydrology and P-loading model (SimplyP) was used to generate input from two major tributaries into a lake model (MyLake-Sediment) to simulate physical mixing, chemical dynamics, and sediment geochemistry in Lake Auburn from 2013 to 2017. Simulations of future lake water quality were conducted using meteorological boundary conditions derived from recent historical data and climate model projections for high greenhouse-gas emission cases. The effects of future land development on lake water quality for the 2046 to 2055 time period under different land-use and climate change scenarios were also simulated. Our results indicate that lake P enrichment is more responsive to extreme storm events than increasing air temperatures, mean precipitation, or windstorms; loss of fish habitat is driven by windstorms, and to a lesser extent an increasing water temperature; and catchment development further leads to water quality decline. All simulations also show that the lake is susceptible to both internal and external P loadings. Simulation of temperature, DO, and P proved to be an effective means for predicting the loss of water quality under changing land-use and climate scenarios.

O Papel das Infraestruturas Ferroviárias nas Mudanças de Uso e Cobertura do Solo no MATOPIBA

As mudanças do uso e cobertura do solo afetam e são resultantes de complexos processos naturais e socioeconômicos. A infraestrutura rodoviária exerce grande influência nessa dinâmica, contudo o papel das ferrovias nesse processo tem sido pouco debatido. No Brasil, a expansão da agropecuária nas últimas décadas tem demandado investimentos em transporte. Isso inclui o planejamento e construção de ferrovias na região formada pelos estados do Maranhão, Tocantins, Piauí e Bahia (MATOPIBA), uma das áreas com maior crescimento e expansão da produção agropecuária. Considerando este contexto, este trabalho tem como objetivo desenvolver uma modelagem espacialmente explícita explorando as associações entre a infraestrutura ferroviária (trilhos, pátios ferroviários e terminais intermodais) e a dinâmica de uso e cobertura do solo em uma área de 650.682 km² no MATOPIBA. O modelo espacialmente explícito desenvolvido para o período 2000-2012 utilizou o método bayesiano dos pesos de evidência para explorar quais os determinantes espaciais das transições entre classes de cobertura do solo e o papel das infraestruturas ferroviárias de transporte nessas mudanças. Os resultados da modelagem forneceram subsídios para conhecer as variáveis e explicar as transições de uso e cobertura do solo no período investigado, também como compilar cenários preditivos do uso e cobertura do solo para as próximas décadas. A modelagem mostrou uma tendência no aumento das áreas destinadas para a produção agropecuária em detrimento das áreas com vegetação nativa . Os resultados também mostraram que as infraestruturas ferroviárias poderão alterar a configuração espacial na região, atraindo a produção agropecuária para os pontos nodais das novas infraestruturas.

Accounting for soil organic carbon role in land use contribution to climate change in agricultural LCA: which methods? Which impacts?

Purpose: Soil organic carbon (SOC) plays a key role in soil functioning and in greenhouse gas exchange with the atmosphere. Land use and land use changes can critically affect SOC. However, despite various methodological developments, there is still no scientific consensus on the best method to assess the holistic impact of land use and land use change within LCA. The SOCLE project aimed to review how SOC contribution to climate change is accounted for in LCA and to test the feasibility and sensitivity of best methodological options. Methods: In total, five crop products (annual/perennial, temperate/tropical) and two livestock products were investigated through 22 scenarios of land use changes (LUC) and agricultural land management changes (LMC). Three methods were applied: IPCC Tier 1-2 (2006), Muller-Wenk and Brandao (2010) and Levasseur et al. (2012). We also carried out a sensitivity analysis on key variables, notably carbon stocks, reference states, and regeneration times. Results and discussion: The accounting for LUC and LMC influenced greatly the results on the climate change impact. Compared to the impact of other GHG emissions, (i) LUC impacts ranged from − 23 to + 1702% with the IPCC method and from − 5 to + 336% with the Muller-Wenk and Brandao method, and (ii) LMC impacts from − 130 to + 54% and from − 31 to + 11%, respectively. The sensitivity analyses stressed the critical influence of all methodological and data choices on final results. Conclusions: Based on the project results, we recommend accounting systematically for the impact of LULUC on climate change by applying, a minima, the comprehensive IPCC Tier 1 approach (2006), which provides default factors for SOC accounting. Where available, case-specific data should be used (e.g., Tier 2) for SOC stocks but also C:N ratio in order to model the degressive impact over 90% of the time period needed to reach equilibrium.

Sensitivity of the global carbonate weathering carbon-sink flux to climate and land-use changes

The response of carbonate weathering carbon-sink flux (CCSF) to its environmental drivers is still not well understood on the global scale. This hinders understanding of the terrestrial carbon cycle. Here, we show that there is likely to be a widespread and consistent increase in the global CCSF (ranging from + 9.8% (RCP4.5) to + 17.1% (RCP8.5)) over the period 1950–2100. In the coming years the increasing temperature might be expected to have a negative impact on carbonate weathering. However, the increasing rainfall and anticipated land-use changes will counteract this, leading to a greater CCSF. This finding has been obtained by using long-term historical (1950–2005) and modeled future (2006–2100) data for two scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) for climate and land-use change in our CCSF equilibrium model. This study stresses the potential role that carbonate weathering may play in the evolution of the global carbon cycle over this century.

Impacts of combined land-use and climate change on streamflow in two nested catchments in the Southeastern United States

Stream restoration aims to improve hydrologic, geomorphic, and ecological processes and provides an opportunity for ecological design in an urban context. Urban stream restoration and stormwater management involve conventional and low impact development strategies that may employ ecological engineering techniques. Urban flood-risks may increase rapidly due to the combination of land-use and climate change. This is a major research frontier because the changes are poorly understood, especially for the combined impacts of climate and land-use change in small catchments. Climate and land-use change may affect hydrologic systems in a complex, non-linear, and non-additive manner. Streamflow simulation models can measure the relative magnitude of land-use and climate change on hydrologic response to precipitation events. Based on a simulation model calibrated with instrumental rainfall and streamflow data, this study compares simulated urban stormflow response to projected land-use and climate change in two highly urbanized catchments in Columbia, South Carolina, USA, using the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)’s Storm Water Management Model (SWMM). Runoff responses for moderate-magnitude storms are contrasted using three land-use change scenarios with differing imperviousness and three climate-change scenarios. Land-use effects on runoff were proportionally greater in the smaller of the two catchments. At the headwater and downstream gauges, a warm/wet climate-change scenario caused larger increases than land-use changes in peak discharges and total event runoff volumes from late spring to early fall. The maximum monthly increase in peak discharge and total runoff volume from all simulations of climate change was for the warm/wet climate scenario in both catchments. However, the combined climate and land-use change scenario produced a 117.9% increase in peak discharge, a slightly (up to 8.6% in September) greater increase in peak discharge than the sum of changes from the individual scenarios (82.6% from climate change and 26.7% from land-use change) at the headwater gauge for the far term (2045–2074). These results suggest a complexity and nonlinearity of the impacts of combined land-use and climate change on hydrological processes, and have implications for stream restoration projects, integrated climate-impact assessments, urban planning, and policy decisions related to storm runoff and water quality.

Coupling scenarios of climate and land-use change with assessments of potential ecosystem services at the river basin scale

Climate and land-use changes are posing increasing threats to freshwater-related ecosystem services, acting both on the supply and the demand side. A better understanding of the dynamics of these potential services, driven by the interactions between the factors mentioned above, could bring benefits to water resources management, the environment, and human well-being. In this work, we developed an integrated modeling approach to assess the conjoined impacts of land-use and climate changes on the potential ecosystem services (i.e. water yield and nutrients retention) until 2050. This approach was applied to the Taro River basin in Italy.Firstly, the results showed a 20% reduction in water yield was driven mainly by the increases in evapotranspiration demand and changes in rainfall patterns. Furthermore, a mean decrease of approximately 3% of the total nitrogen retention and a mean increase of 3% for the total phosphorus retention could be mainly attributed to land-use changes. Secondly, the rate of change would be different over time with the most pronounced differences between 2020 and 2030 and slower variations afterward. Finally, the obtained results could be a valuable support to identify and prioritize the best management practices for sustainable water use, balancing the tradeoffs among services.

Modelación del cambio de uso del suelo en la Zona Costera: Cuauhtemotzin-El Pailebot, Tabasco, México

En este estudio se analizaron los patrones del cambio de uso del suelo en la costa “Cuauhtemotzin-El Pailebot”, Tabasco, mediante la integración de un modelo de análisis espacio temporal (Land Change Modeler) y dos modelos espaciales de predicción (Cadenas de Markov y Autómatas Celulares). Esto fue debido a la carencia de datos sobre el estado actual de la situación ambiental en la zona costera de Tabasco, a pesar de ser información relevante para sustentar escenarios futuros del cambio de uso del suelo para la planeación ambiental. Los resultados muestran durante 2000-2018 una sobresaliente pérdida de 10,644 ha del uso agropecuario, contrario a un elevado aumento de 10,210 ha de coberturas de humedales. De la misma forma, se detectó la pérdida 2,978 ha de vegetación arbórea, ante un aumento de 988 ha del área urbana. El análisis LCM de la imagen del 2018 contra la proyección 2030 detectó que las superficies agropecuarias continuaron presentaron elevadas pérdidas, ante nuevos aumentos en los humedales; mientras que la vegetación arbórea siguió presentando tasas elevadas de deforestación, con evidente crecimiento del área urbana. Los patrones adversos actuales del cambio de uso de suelo deberán ser mitigadas tomando en cuenta las proyecciones futuras mediante el planeamiento basado en el diseño de un programa de regulación ambiental y sustentable, que establezca reservas ecológicas, promueva la conservación y restauración ambiental mediante un modelo ordenamiento territorial en la zona costera de Tabasco, México.

Visualization-supported dialogues in the Baltic Sea Region

This study explores visualization-supported dialogues with water management and ecosystem stakeholders from four catchments in Sweden, Latvia, Germany and Poland. An interactive visualization tool was designed to present information regarding modelled effects of chosen future pathways including different measures that address ecosystem issues under present and future scenarios of land use and climate change, and estimated benefits and costs of the measures. This paper assesses if and how visualization-supported dialogues hinder or support key components of good governance of water and ecosystem management among expert stakeholders. We discuss challenges and opportunities related to the tool and dialogue design, and performance of dialogues. Results from a cross-case workshop indicate that the form and functionality of the tool contributes to participation, empowerment, accessibility and flexibility, while dialogue design is instrumental for encouraging trust and inclusion of local knowledge and competence.

Representation and improved parameterization of reservoir operation in hydrological and land-surface models

Abstract. Reservoirs significantly affect flow regimes in watershed systems by changing the magnitude and timing of streamflows. Failure to represent these effects limits the performance of hydrological and land-surface models (H-LSMs) in the many highly regulated basins across the globe and limits the applicability of such models to investigate the futures of watershed systems through scenario analysis (e.g., scenarios of climate, land use, or reservoir regulation changes). An adequate representation of reservoirs and their operation in an H-LSM is therefore essential for a realistic representation of the downstream flow regime. In this paper, we present a general parametric reservoir operation model based on piecewise-linear relationships between reservoir storage, inflow, and release to approximate actual reservoir operations. For the identification of the model parameters, we propose two strategies: (a) a “generalized” parameterization that requires a relatively limited amount of data and (b) direct calibration via multi-objective optimization when more data on historical storage and release are available. We use data from 37 reservoir case studies located in several regions across the globe for developing and testing the model. We further build this reservoir operation model into the MESH (Modélisation Environmentale-Surface et Hydrologie) modeling system, which is a large-scale H-LSM. Our results across the case studies show that the proposed reservoir model with both parameter-identification strategies leads to improved simulation accuracy compared with the other widely used approaches for reservoir operation simulation. We further show the significance of enabling MESH with this reservoir model and discuss the interdependent effects of the simulation accuracy of natural processes and that of reservoir operations on the overall model performance. The reservoir operation model is generic and can be integrated into any H-LSM.

Economic analysis of land use changes in forests and rangelands: Developing conservation strategies

Forests and rangelands are economically and environmentally important due to the production of goods and ecosystem services, and any changes in their nature requires a comprehensive evaluation and analysis. The objectives of this study include: a) conducting a cost-benefit analysis of land use change in the forests and rangelands of the Caspian vegetative area with regard to the environmental costs along with other costs and benefits, b) estimating the environmental damage of land use change, and c) developing appropriate strategies for the conservation of the forests and rangelands. The value of costs and benefits of the change was calculated from 2005 to 2016 using the average annual inflation rate up to 2035. The results of the evaluation model show that among the 6 scenarios of land use change, 4 scenarios are completely economically non-viable and two scenarios (forest and rangeland change to residential) are viable with regard to environmental considerations. Moreover, during this period, the change of forest and rangeland for other uses were respectively 43,732 and 33,466 ha. Accordingly, considering the average annual value of hectares of forest and rangeland in terms of producing goods and ecological services, the loss incurred was about 334 and 160 million USD.

Effects Of Deforestation And Afforestation In The Central Part Of The East European Plain On Regional Weather Conditions

Forest vegetation can affect the climate and weather patterns in multiple ways. What are the main mechanisms of such influence and how the land-use and vegetation changes may affect the weather and climate conditions in different geographical regions are still not quite clear. In our study, the possible impact of land use and forest cover changes in the central part of the East European plain on regional meteorological conditions was investigated using the regional COSMO model. In our modeling experiments we used two extreme land-use change scenarios imitating total deforestation and afforestation of experimental area located between 55° and 59oN and 28° and 37°E in the central part of the East European plain. Modeling results conducted for the year 2016 showed that deforestation results in increase of the temperature difference between summer and winter months by up to 0.6oС and in reduction of the annual precipitation by 35 mm. On the contrary, afforestation leads to decrease of the annual temperature range by 0.3° С and to growth of annual precipitation by 15 mm. Moreover, the deforestation results in higher frequencies of stronger winds and lower number of fog events, while the afforestation leads to opposite effects. Analysis of the Khromov and Gorchinsky indexes of continentality showed that the deforestation of the selected experimental area may lead to increase of the climate continentality in the study region, whereas the afforestation results in milder climate conditions.