Future Climate Scenarios Research Articles

Impacts of climate change on the suitable habitat of Angelica sinensis and analysis of its drivers in China

Climate change is shifting optimal habitats for medicinal plants, potentially compromising the efficacy and therapeutic value of herbal remedies. Global warming and increased extreme weather events threaten the sustainability and pharmaceutical integrity of Angelica sinensis (Oliv.) Diels (A. sinensis). Despite its importance in traditional herbal medicine, there is limited research on adaptation of A. sinensis to climate challenges. This study systematically collected occurrence data of A. sinensis through field expeditions and online databases, using the Maxent ecological niche modeling tool and ArcGIS software to forecast suitable habitats. A total of 402 species occurrence points and 21 environmental variables were selected for modeling, resulting in 1,160 distribution models, of which only one met the stringent 5% odds ratio (OR) standard. The optimal model exhibited a pROC value of 0, an OR of 0.0196, and an AICc score of 9,287.133. The model, run ten times for robustness, showed an average AUC of 0.980, indicating high accuracy and reliability. Under current climate conditions, suitable habitats for A. sinensis cover approximately 13% of mainland China, primarily in Gansu (73.77%), Qinghai (14.73%), and Sichuan (11.18%) provinces. Environmental factors such as altitude, humidity, and temperature significantly influence the geographical distribution of A. sinensis. The future climate scenario predictions suggest that suitable habitats will generally shift towards higher latitudes, with areas of moderate to high suitability primarily distributed across the provinces of Gansu and Qinghai. The interactions between environmental factors, characterized by mutual and nonlinear enhancement, further influence the spatial differentiation of suitability zones. Overlay analysis with 2020 land cover data indicated that 861,437 km² of arable and forest land are suitable for A. sinensis cultivation. Future predictions under four SSP scenarios show varying changes in suitable habitat areas, with the most significant expansion under SSP370 between 2080 and 2100, covering 14.54% of mainland China. These findings provide critical insights for optimizing A. sinensis cultivation regions and quality assessments in response to climate change.

Understanding sustainability of woody species suitability zones on the Loess Plateau for optimal creation zone selection in response to future climate change.

Climate change has profound implications for the distribution of suitable habitats for woody species. In this study, we assessed the optimal distribution thresholds for twelve woody species on the Loess Plateau using the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model, incorporating sample points of tree species alongside relevant environmental variables. We analyzed the sustainability of potentially suitable zones and proposed a framework for selecting a regulatory model to establish the most suitable creation zones in response to future climate change. The results indicated that: (1) The distributions potentially suitable for Platycladus orientalis and Pinus tabuliformis were predominantly influenced by mean annual temperatures, whereas Pinus armandii and Quercus aliena var. acutiserrata exhibited optimal conditions at temperatures around -4°C. Both Hippophae rhamnoides and Larix gmelinii var. principis-rupprechtii had suitable threshold precipitation levels exceeding 200mm, with optimal thresholds surpassing 250mm. (2) Most high-suitability zones for woody species across various future climate scenarios were primarily located in southern regions, including examples such as Betula platyphylla Sukaczev, Platycladus orientalis, Pinus sylvestris var. mongholica. Some of these high-suitability areas displayed insular and linear distributions, notably Larix gmelinii var. principis-rupprechtii, Quercus aliena var. acutiserrata, Salix cheilophila. (3) There was no southward shift in the northern boundary of the sustainability zones for any woody species across the different scenarios. Betula platyphylla and Salix babylonica exhibited the broadest distribution of sustainability zones. (4) The most suitable areas for the establishment of woody species were primarily found in the western, southern, and eastern regions, whereas the northern and central areas were less favorable for tree growth. Among the scenarios analyzed, SSP585 presents the most extensive distribution area. This study is expected to improve the distribution structure of woody species and the implementation of management policies.

From Farms to Forests: An Exploration of Afforestation Efforts in Poland Under the Rural Development Programme (2007–2020)

Forests are important in mitigating climate change and addressing biodiversity loss. In Poland, where forest cover has steadily increased since World War II, afforestation of agricultural land has emerged as a key strategy supported by both EU and national policies. This study evaluates the implementation of Poland’s afforestation programs under the Rural Development Programme (RDP) for the periods of 2007–2013 and 2014–2020 using data provided by the Agency for Restructuring and Modernisation of Agriculture (ARMA) and focusing on the financial incentives offered to private landowners and regional variations in their uptake. Results show that afforestation under the RDP aligned with the EU climate neutrality goals, with a total of 37,721 hectares afforested and PLN 243.5 million handed as financial support, predominantly (81%) over the first studied period. The largest afforestation efforts were observed in the Mazowieckie and Warmińsko-Mazurskie voivodeships, with Warszawa, Poland’s capital, achieving the highest municipal afforestation area across both periods. Financial considerations influenced farmer participation, but rising land prices and historical land use patterns were contributing factors. Urban afforestation and increasing demand for woody biomass further highlight the benefits of afforestation. However, conifer-dominated stands, prevalent on low-quality land, can present challenges to ecosystem stability under future climate scenarios, necessitating diversification towards deciduous species. Additionally, low uptake during the 2014–2020 period showcases the need for improved incentives to bolster participation. Still, afforestation presents significant economic and environmental opportunities, advancing long-term policy objectives while addressing critical challenges in climate.

Projecting the global potential distribution of nine Rhododendron Subgenus Hymenanthes species under different climate change scenarios

As one of China’s most treasured traditional flowers, Rhododendron Subgen. Hymenanthes is renowned worldwide for its evergreen foliage, vibrant flowers, and significant ornamental, landscaping, and economic value. However, climate change poses a serious threat to its future, leading to population declines and endangerment of some species. Despite the ecological and economic importance of Rhododendron Subgen. Hymenanthes, the future distribution of suitable habitats and the most effective strategies for its conservation and utilization remain unclear. This study employs the MaxEnt model, which is well-known for its reliability in predicting species distribution under changing environmental conditions, to predict the potential global distribution of nine species of Rhododendron Subgen. Hymenanthes. The goal is to provide a solid foundation for their conservation, cultivation management, and breeding. The results indicate that, under future climate scenarios, suitable habitat areas for four species (R. irroratum, R. agastum, R. decorum, and R. arboreum) will significantly decrease, while suitable habitats for the remaining five species (R. delavayi, R. fortunei, R. calophytum, R. simiarum, and R. wardii) will experience slight expansion. Temperature and precipitation are identified as key environmental factors influencing the growth and distribution of these species, affecting their ability to colonize new regions. The migration direction of the expanding regions for all nine species is consistent, with their centroids shifting towards the northwest. These findings provide critical insights for developing targeted conservation strategies, including identifying potential refugia and prioritizing conservation areas under future climate conditions.

Diatom responses to rapid light and temperature fluctuations: adaptive strategies and natural variability

Diatoms are crucial in global primary productivity and carbon sequestration, contributing significantly to marine food webs and biogeochemical cycles. With the projected increase in sea surface temperatures, climate change poses significant threats to these essential organisms. This study investigates the photobiological responses of nine diatom species to rapid changes in light and temperature, aiming to understand their adaptability and resilience to climate-induced environmental fluctuations. Using a high-throughput phenoplate assay, we evaluated the maximum quantum yield of photosystem 2 (Fv/Fm), non-photochemical quenching (NPQ) and additional photosynthetic parameters under varying temperature conditions. Our results revealed significant variability in the photophysiological responses among the species, with temperature emerging as a dominant abiotic factor relative to light, accounting for 13.2%–37.5% of the measured variability. Measurements of effect size of temperature and light on Fv/Fm showed that there is additional significant innate variability in the samples when a homogeneous culture is fractioned in 384 subpopulations. Furthermore, hierarchical clustering analysis of the effect size of temperature, light and innate variability on all measured photosynthetic parameters identified two distinct diatom groups. One group exhibited strong interaction between light intensity and temperature, suggesting active synergetic mechanisms to cope with fluctuating environments, while the other showed potential limitations in this regard. These findings highlight diatoms’ diverse strategies to optimize photosynthesis and manage light and thermal stress, providing insights into their potential responses to future climate scenarios. Furthermore, we demonstrate that using the method presented in this work we can functionally cluster different diatom species.

Association between hydroclimatic factors and vegetation health: Impact of climate change in the past and future.

This study investigates the potential impact of future climate scenarios designated by different shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) on vegetation health. Considering the entire Indian mainland as the study region, which exhibits a diverse range of climate and vegetation regimes, we analysed long-term past (1981-2020) and future (2021-2100) changes in vegetation greenness across seven vegetation types and four seasons. In order to gain insight into the intricate interrelationships between vegetation and hydroclimatic factors (soil moisture, precipitation, solar radiation, and temperature), a Standardized Vegetation Index (SVI) is used as a proxy for vegetation health, and a bivariate copula-based probabilistic model is developed incorporating a Combined Climate Index (CCI) derived through Supervised Principal Component Analysis (SPCA) and the SVI. Our results indicate that the water-limited areas are more sensitive to precipitation and soil moisture, whereas energy-limited areas are primarily influenced by temperature and solar radiation. Consequently, an overall increase in the vegetation greenness is observed over the past decades in most of water-limited regions, and almost no change or slight decline in greenness over the northeastern regions, where precipitation is abundant but it is an energy-limited region due to high convective activity. Future projections (2021-2100) indicate an overall increase in greenness during monsoons. However, browning (loss of greenness) is anticipated to intensify over time, especially in the northeast. This study demonstrates the model's efficacy in capturing the complex vegetation-climate relationship, highlighting its potential for application across diverse geographical regions and providing insights into the implications of climate change.

Sediment Properties and Seagrass Density Influence the Morphological Plasticity of Seagrass Zostera muelleri More Than Elevated Temperatures

Understanding the long-term effects of elevated temperatures on foundational species like seagrasses is critical for predicting and managing the impacts of warming coastal ecosystems worldwide. Seagrasses exhibit plasticity in response to a range of environmental stressors, so the effects of climate change are likely to be context dependent. This study investigated differences in the growth and morphology of Zostera muelleri inside versus outside a warm water plume generated by a power station operating for ~ 26 years in Lake Macquarie, New South Wales, Australia. The effects of other factors, including sediment organic matter, season and seagrass density were also examined to ascertain their importance relative to elevated temperatures. Despite water temperatures in the thermal plume being equivalent to conditions predicted by 2090 under future climate scenarios (1.5–2.7 °C above ambient), there were no consistent effects of these elevated temperatures on Z. muelleri growth and morphology. Instead, growth at all sites (ambient and warm water) was greater by 40.3% in spring and 74.3% in summer when compared to winter. Increasing organic matter content in sediments was associated with a 69.8% rise in below-ground biomass and a subsequent 73.8% reduction in the ratio of above- to below-ground biomass. There was also evidence for seagrass density effects, with denser meadows having shorter leaves and reduced growth rates, likely due to self-shading. Overall, these findings demonstrate that Z. muelleri in the centre of its distribution in eastern Australia can tolerate moderate temperature increases over decadal scales.

Assessing the establishment risk for parthenogenetic populations of Lissorhoptrus oryzophilus in global rice-growing areas and potential economic impact in China

The rice water weevil, Lissorhoptrus oryzophilus Kuschel (Coleoptera: Curculionidae), threatens global rice production, with invasion events driven by its parthenogenetic populations. However, the global establishment risk in global rice-growing areas and potential economic losses and control benefits of the populations in invaded areas remain unclear. We applied an optimized MaxEnt model to predict the global suitable areas of the populations under current and future climate scenarios. Furthermore, we used @Risk software to estimate the potential economic losses and controlling benefit of this populations to rice production in China. Compared to its native range (North America), this populations has explored novel climates ecological niches in invaded areas (Europe and Asia) and occupies the broadest range of climatic ecological niches in Asia. The highly suitable area is primarily covered in rice-growing areas in China, the Korean Peninsula, and Japan, with all major rice-growing areas concentrated in these countries and regions. Under SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 emission scenarios, sum of suitable area for the populations in global rice-growing regions is projected to decrease by 0.35% and 0.26%, respectively, by the 2030s and 2050s. Moreover, @Risk analysis indicates that without control measures, the populations could cost China’s rice industry $18.95 billion, but management efforts could recover $17.54 billion. These results provide in-depth reference about the impact of climatic changes on the potential global suitable range of L. oryzophilus parthenogenetic populations and its economic impact on the rice industry in China.

Cost-effective adaptations increase rice production while reducing pollution under climate change.

Rice is a major source of greenhouse gas (GHG) and nitrogen pollution. While best management practices have been developed to enhance the sustainability of rice production under current climates, their adaptability and efficacy under future climate scenarios remain uncertain. Here we evaluated 49 best management practices across global grid cells of rice-producing areas in terms of increasing rice production, reducing GHG emissions and minimizing nitrogen pollution under future climate conditions. Optimal climate adaptation measures were assigned to each grid cell. We show that implementing the proposed adaptation strategy could increase global rice production by 36% while reducing GHG emissions and nitrogen losses by 23% and 32%, respectively. This approach could lead to a global benefit of US$117 billion for food supply, resource saving, climate mitigation and environmental protection, with total implementation costs of US$13 billion. Establishing practical and cost-effective adaptation strategies is critical for the sustainable development of the global agricultural system in the face of climate challenges.

Thrips biological control agent shows greater niche overlap with invasive alligatorweed than conventional agent in current and future climate scenarios

Thrips biological control agent shows greater niche overlap with invasive alligatorweed than conventional agent in current and future climate scenarios

Distribution changes of Ormosia microphylla under different climatic scenarios

Ormosia microphylla is a nationally prioritized wild plant in China but effects of likely future climate change have been poorly studied. Here distribution data of O. microphylla and environmental data with an optimized MaxEnt maximum entropy model were used to predict potentially suitable areas under current and future climate scenarios. The results showed that with future climate warming, the total area suitable for O. microphylla might gradually increase. In the three future periods (2030s (2021–2040), 2050s (2041–2060) and 2090s (2081–2100)), the medium and high suitable areas under different climate scenarios generally showed an expanding trend, while the low suitable areas mostly showed a decreasing trend. At the same time, the potential suitable areas for O. microphylla in China have shown a certain degree of migration trend towards higher latitudes in the north and northwest, as well as a trend towards higher altitudes. The research results will provide data support for the protection of germplasm resources and the development of artificial cultivation techniques for O. microphylla, and provide a theoretical basis for the protection of other rare and endangered plants.

De novo genome assembly and annotations of Bombus lapidarius and Bombus niveatus provide insights into the environmental adaptability

Bumblebees are ubiquitous, cold-adapted, primitively eusocial bees and important pollinators for crops and vegetation. However, many species are declining worldwide due to multiple factors, including human-induced habitat loss, agricultural chemicals, global warming, and climate change. In particular, future climate scenarios predict a shift in the spatial distribution of bumblebees under global warming, with some species declining and others potentially expanding. Here, we report a de novo genome assembly and annotation for Bombus lapidarius and Bombus niveatus to decipher species-specific potential genomic capacity against such environmental stressors. With harboring more than 23,000 protein-coding genes, the assembled genomes of B. lapidarius and B. niveatus are 244.44 Mb (scaffold N50 of 9.45 Mb) and 259.84 Mb (scaffold N50 of 10.94 Mb), respectively, which exhibit similar trends in terms of genome size and composition with other bumblebees. Gene family analysis reveals differences in species-specific expanded gene families. B. lapidarius exhibits expanded genes related to pre/postsynaptic organization, while B. niveatus shows a distinct expansion in gene families regulating cellular growth, aging, and responses to abiotic and biotic stressors, such as those containing SCAN domains, WD-repeats, and Ras-related proteins. Our genome-wide screens revealed positive selection on environmental stress-responsive genes such as dip2, yme1l, and spg7 in B. lapidarius, whereas positive selection signatures were found in genes such as myd88, mybbp1A, and rhau, which are involved in environmental stress resistance for B. niveatus. These high-quality genome assemblies and comparative genome analysis unveil potential drivers that underlie genome evolution in bumblebees, offering valuable insights into environmental adaptation and conservation efforts.

A modeling approach to determine substitutive tree species for sweet chestnut in stands affected by ink disease

Biological invasions, driven mainly by human activities, pose significant threats to global ecosystems and economies, with fungi and fungal-like oomycetes playing a pivotal role. Ink disease, caused by Phytophthora cinnamomi and P. × cambivora, is a growing concern for sweet chestnut stands (Castanea sativa) in Europe. Since both pathogens are thermophilic organisms, ongoing climate change will likely exacerbate their impact. In this study, we applied species distribution modeling techniques to identify potential substitutive species for sweet chestnut in the light of future climate scenarios SSP126 and SSP370 in southern Switzerland. Using the presence-only machine learning algorithm MaxEnt and leveraging occurrence data from the global dataset GBIF, we delineated the current and projected (2070–2100) distribution of 28 tree species. Several exotic species emerged as valuable alternatives to sweet chestnut, although careful consideration of all potential ecological consequences is required. We also identified several native tree species as promising substitutes, offering ecological benefits and potential adaptability to climatic conditions. Since species diversification fosters forest resilience, we also determined communities of alternative species that can be grown together. Our findings represent a valuable decision tool for forest managers confronted with the challenges posed by ink disease and climate change. Given that, even in absence of disease, sweet chestnut is not a future-proof tree species in the study region, the identified species could offer a pathway toward resilient and sustainable forests within the entire chestnut belt.

Impact of Climate Change on the Habitat Distribution of Decapterus macarellus in the South China Sea

This study examines the potential distribution of Mackerel scad (Decapterus macarellus) in the South China Sea under future climate scenarios (SSP 1.26, SSP 2.45, SSP 5.85) using an ensemble species distribution model (SDM). Key environmental variables included sea surface salinity (SSS), sea surface height (SSH), sea surface temperature (SST), mixed-layer depth (MLD), chlorophyll-a concentration (CHL), and sea-bottom temperature (SBT). Results show that SST and MLD are the primary drivers of habitat suitability, with current suitable habitats concentrated in the northern offshore areas. Projections for the 2050s and 2090s indicate a reduction in suitable habitats, particularly under high-emission scenarios, with more gradual reductions under low-emission scenarios. Habitat loss is most pronounced in the northern South China Sea, while the central region is projected to see an expansion of suitable habitats. These findings highlight the climate impact on D. macarellus distribution and inform sustainable management strategies for the species in the region.

Studying the impact of climate change on spatiotemporal variability of blue and green water resources

ABSTRACT Nowadays, the focal point of water resources planning and management in the river basin scale, especially in the arid/semi-arid regions, is aimed at enhancing the efficient utilization of water resources. Therefore, knowledge on the spatiotemporal variations of water resources concerning blue water (BW) and green water (GW) indicators under climate change scenarios is inevitable. The present research was conducted to study the interaction of climate variability on the BW and GW components in the Seymareh River Basin (SRB), Iran, with the aid of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Future climate scenarios for the period of 2020–2040 were generated based on the LARS-WG 6.0 model. According to the results, all climate change scenarios indicate an increase in precipitation in the range of 29–33%. Furthermore, the average monthly surface runoff was projected to increase approximately by 75, 88, and 98% under RCP 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5 scenarios, respectively. The results revealed that the SRB witnessed a significant increase in BW due to climate changes. Meanwhile, the magnitude of the GW indicator was different within the SRB, with minor changes. Identifying areas with high blue/green water potentials is effective in planning for rain-fed or irrigated agriculture in the SRB.

Climate change threatens amphibians and species representation within protected areas in tropical wetlands

Abstract Protected areas (PAs) are crucial for biodiversity conservation, yet climate change threatens their long‐term effectiveness by displacing species distributions. Among the most climate‐threatened organisms are the amphibians, highly dependent on water and wetlands. The world's largest continuous tropical wetland, the Pantanal and surroundings, is situated in the Upper Paraguay River Basin (UPRB) in South America. Of the 74 amphibian species found there, 4% are threatened. Less than 5% of the basin is within PAs. Recurrent droughts and increasing human pressures further endanger the region's semiaquatic fauna if adequate protection measures are not implemented. Using Ensemble of Small Models, we mapped habitat suitability of amphibian species and projected amphibian richness and composition across the UPRB. We applied null models to evaluate the representation of amphibian ranges within the current PA network under both current and future climate scenarios. To prioritize areas for PA network expansion under climate change scenarios, we used a systematic conservation planning algorithm. By 2100, over 80% of amphibian species from the study area are projected to lose suitable habitat, with 99% of amphibian assemblages facing climate‐driven species loss. Although the existing PA network had limited species representation, protecting on average less than 5% of amphibian ranges. However, 13.7% of PAs are expected to shelter more amphibian species than expected by chance under future climate conditions. Highlands, particularly in the northern and southeastern boundaries of the UPRB, are identified priority areas for PA network expansion due to their high projected changes in amphibian biodiversity. Synthesis and applications. Our findings reveal the extensive impacts of climate change on a major semiaquatic group in the world's largest tropical wetland. Although the current PA network in the Pantanal and surroundings safeguards fewer amphibians than expected, its limited coverage provides opportunities for systematic, data‐driven expansion to achieve the Post‐2020 Global Biodiversity Framework's 30 by 30 target. Expanding PAs is urgent, but addressing drivers of environmental degradation, including unsustainable practices in agriculture and livestock farming, is equally critical for conserving this biodiverse ecosystem.

Evaluating the Impact of Climate Change on the Asia Habitat Suitability of Troides helena Using the MaxEnt Model.

Butterflies are highly sensitive to climate change, and Troides helena, as an endangered butterfly species, is also affected by these changes. To enhance the conservation of T. helena and effectively plan its protected areas, it is crucial to understand the potential impacts of climate change on its distribution. This study utilized a MaxEnt model in combination with ArcGIS technology to predict the global potential suitable habitats of T. helena under current and future climate conditions, using the species' distribution data and relevant environmental variables. The results indicated that the MaxEnt model provided a good prediction accuracy for the distribution of T. helena. Under the current climate scenario, the species is primarily distributed in tropical regions, with high suitability areas concentrated in tropical rainforest climates. In future climate scenarios, the suitable habitat areas for T. helena in medium and high suitability categories generally show an expansion trend, which increases over time. Especially under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, by the 2090s, the area of high suitability for T. helena is projected to increase by 42.85%. The analysis of key environmental factors revealed that precipitation of the wettest quarter (Bio16) was the most significant environmental factor affecting the distribution of T. helena. The species has high demands for precipitation and temperature and can adapt to future climate warming. This study is valuable for identifying the optimal conservation areas for T. helena and provides a reference for future conservation efforts.

Phylogenetic relationships of Smilax astrosperma (Smilacaceae) with other Smilax species and its potential distribution patterns in karst areas of south China

The genus Smilax is adapted for growth in karst areas of south China, likely because of the karst habitat heterogeneity of the area and climate factors. However, the phylogenetic relationships among different species in this genus and impact of environmental changes on its geographic distribution patterns remain unclear. Therefore, we assembled the 11 chloroplast genomes of the genus Smilax and reconstructed its phylogeny using the maximum‐likelihood method to confirm the phylogenetic relationships of Smilax astrosperma among 28 other Smilax genus species. In addition, a maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model was applied to evaluate and predict the potential distribution of S. astrosperma using bioclimatic variables, soil environment, elevation, slope degree and aspect, and human footprints under present and predicted future climate scenarios. The results show that S. astrosperma has a close relationship with S. glabra in the genus Smilax. The average temperature of the coldest quarter is a crucial factor influencing the distribution of S. astrosperma in karst areas. The potential distribution range of S. astrosperma increases and decreases under the SSP1‐2.6 and SSP5‐8.5 scenarios, respectively. These findings highlight that S. astrosperma and other species of the karst areas of south China need special attention under climate warming since both warming itself and extreme weather events threaten their survival.

Predicting the potential distribution of three invasive insect pests (Tuta absoluta, Aleurodicus rugioperculatus and Phenacoccus manihoti) under future climate scenarios in India based on CMIP6 projections

Predicting the potential distribution of three invasive insect pests (Tuta absoluta, Aleurodicus rugioperculatus and Phenacoccus manihoti) under future climate scenarios in India based on CMIP6 projections

Modelling mixed crop-livestock systems and climate impact assessment in sub-Saharan Africa

Climate change significantly challenges smallholder mixed crop-livestock (MCL) systems in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), affecting food and feed production. This study enhances the SIMPLACE modeling framework by incorporating crop-vegetation-livestock models, which contribute to the development of sustainable agricultural practices in response to climate change. Applying such a framework in a domain in West Africa (786,500 km2) allowed us to estimate the changes in crop (Maize, Millet, and Sorghum) yield, grass biomass, livestock numbers, and greenhouse gas emission in response to future climate scenarios. We demonstrate that this framework accurately estimated the key components of the domain for the past (1981–2005) and enables us to project their future changes using dynamically downscaled Global Circulation Model (GCM) projections (2020–2050). The results demonstrate that in the future, the northern part of the study area will likely experience a significant decline in crop biomass (up to -56%) and grass biomass (up to -57%) production leading to a decrease in livestock numbers (up to -43%). Consequently, this will impact total emissions (up to -47% CH4) and decrease of -41% in milk production, and − 47% in meat production concentrated in the Sahelian zone. Whereas, in pockets of the Sudanian zone, an increase in livestock population and CH4 emission of about + 24% has been estimated, indicating that variability in climate change impact is amplifying with no consistent pattern evident across the study domain.