Scenarios Of Economic Development Research Articles

Exploring the response of ecosystem service value to land use changes under multiple scenarios coupling a mixed-cell cellular automata model and system dynamics model in Xi'an, China

Land use is a crucial factor affecting ecosystem service value (ESV), and forecasting future land use changes and ESV response can guide urban planning and sustainable development decisions. However, the traditional Cellular Automata (CA) model supposes that each cell has only one land use type at each time step, neglects the mixed structure and proportional distribution of land use units, does not take into account its quantitative continuous dynamic change, and lacks the exploration of land use quantity structure and spatial pattern optimization. This study employed a novel mixed-cell cellular automata (MCCA) approach, coupled with the system dynamics (SD) model to predict the spatiotemporal pattern of land use under the natural increase scenario (NIS), economic development scenario (EDS) and ecological protection scenario (EPS) in Xi’an, China, in 2030. The equivalent coefficient method was utilized to investigate the heterogeneity distribution and sensitivity of ESV. The results demonstrated that SD-MCCA exhibited remarkable prediction accuracy and robustness. The main changes in land use in 2000–2015 were due to urban expansion, the conversion of arable land into construction land, and the conversion between grassland and arable land. The total ESV increased from 19554.36×106 CNY in 2000 to 19618.39×106 CNY under the EPS in 2030, and the contribution of climate regulation and hydrological regulation to ESV was the highest. Spatial heterogeneity of ESV revealed a certain regularity, and the high value region was chiefly concentrated in woodland and grassland with favorable ecological conditions. Land use variations under NIS and EPS improved ESV, while the ESV had a negative response to land use transformations under the EDS. This research provides a new way to identify the relationship between future land utilization scenarios and ESV, which is of great significance for the management of land resources and formulation of ecological compensation standards.

Resource rents, savings behavior, and scenarios of economic development

The paper revisits the nexus between natural resources and economic growth from the lens of development economics. It augments the traditional dual-sector economy model by the assumption that in addition to capitalists, also workers contribute to the capital accumulation through private savings out of their wage income. The proposed differential game theory model of the interaction between the public and the elites identifies two realistic open loop Nash and three Stackelberg scenarios for the management of the commodity driven budget surplus. Based on the conventional transversality conditions, the model detects a progressing decay of social cohesion and institutional quality. It shows that at the early stages of the exploitation of the natural resource riches, both the public and elites enable a rather modernization-friendly scenaros. At the rather advanced stages of the exploitation of natural resources both groups try to maximize their short-term private benefits and by doing so protract or even inhibit the process of economic modernization. The study finds that the savings behavior of the workers has a positive modernization effect. Nevertheless, workers’ savings cannot fully offset the negative modernization effects of the inferior management of natural resource revenues.

Supply Chain Resilience of Mineral Resources Industry in China

Improving the supply chain resilience of the mineral resources industry is crucial for ensuring national economic security in China. Based on the supply and demand data of China’s mineral resources industry from 2002 to 2018, this study adopts system dynamics model to simulate the supply chain resilience of the mineral resources industry, the mining industry, and the smelting and processing industry under the scenario of steady economic development and the scenario of supply chain crisis. From the simulation results, the reserves of the mineral resources industry and the smelting and processing industry under the two scenarios are nearly the same, indicating that they are weakly affected by the foreign market, and both have strong resilience. The mining industry has a high dependence on imports and a lack of supply chain resilience. Under the condition of steady economic development, the output of the mining industry needs to develop at a low speed to reduce production capacity. More attention should be paid to the high level of import dependence and insufficient supply chain resilience of the mining industry. In the stable international trade situation, reserves of important minerals should be increased to alleviate the resource shortage during the supply chain crisis.

Changes in Land Use and Ecosystem Service Values of Dunhuang Oasis from 1990 to 2030

Maintaining the integrity and stability of oasis ecosystems is an important topic in the field of ecological research. Assessment of ecosystem services and their changes can provide important support for the sustainable development of oases. This study took the Dunhuang oasis in the hyper-arid area as the research object and used 1990, 2010, and 2020 Landsat series satellite images to complete the land use interpretation by random forest classification. Then we estimated the ecosystem services value (ESV) by using benefit transfer method, and predicted the trend of ecosystem service value changes under three scenarios using the Analytic Hierarchy Process method and the patch generation land use simulation model (AHP-PLUS model). The results showed that the vegetation areas of the Dunhuang Oasis first decreased and then increased during 1990–2020. The decrease was largely due to the expansion of built-up land and farmland, and the increase was mainly contributed by the implementation of ecological protection policies. The path of changes in the ESV of the Dunhuang Oasis during 1990–2020 was well consistent with that of vegetation areas, with a maximum of 9068.15×106 yuan (in 1990) and a minimum of 6271.46×106 yuan (in 2010). Spatial autocorrelation analysis showed that urbanization reduced ESV, and the implementation of ecological policies enhanced ESV. The ESV of the Dunhuang Oasis for the year 2030 under the ecological conservation scenario could reach 7631.07×106 yuan, which is 381.1×106 yuan higher that under the economic development scenario. The ecological conservation scenario is the optimal option to achieve sustainable development of the Dunhuang Oasis. We suggested that the government should continuously enhance the protection of forests and waterbodies, reasonably restrict production and domestic water consumption, and efficiently increase the proportion of ecological water consumption. In addition, this study improved the evaluation method of oasis ESV based on the proportion of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) of grasslands with different coverage, which is important for improving the environment in arid areas.

Air quality improvement through vehicle electrification in Hainan province, China

To improve the ecological environment, provinces in China have set ambitious goals for the electrification of fossil-fuel-powered vehicles (FVs) and the promotion of electric vehicles (EVs). Hainan is the first province to propose a clean energy target that schedules the banning of new FVs sales from 2030. Therefore, Hainan is a good case study to illustrate how this policy might improve regional air quality over the coming years. This study first developed an anthropogenic emission inventory of seven major air pollutants in 2017 in Hainan. The total emissions of CO, NOx, NH3, volatile organic compounds (VOCs), PM10 and PM2.5 and SO2 in 2017 were estimated as 247.56, 69.61, 61.87, 41.38, 37.02, 19.82, and 8.55 kt, respectively. Using the developed emission inventory, multiple scenarios of economic development were considered to assess the benefits to air quality from Hainan's goal of electrification. In comparison with 2017, the reductions in emissions of SO2, NOx, CO, PM10, PM2.5, VOCs, and NH3 by 2045 were projected to be 5.45 (11.11%), 275.07 (57.32%), 675.51 (34.07%), 8.39 (5.73%), 7.73 (8.24%), 81.15 (9.76%), and 4.89 (0.91%) kt, respectively, under the all-electric vehicle scenarios. These results indicate that this policy will not only reduce the emission of air pollutants but also avoid complex O3 pollution in the future. The findings of this work elucidate the effects of vehicle electrification policies on regional air quality and provide scientific support for policymakers in developing pollution control strategies.

Canada in the context of megatrends of modern world development

The article attempts to analyze the most significant trends and potential scenarios of modern world economic, political and social development, as well as the place and role of Canada in the context of ongoing processes.

Мобилизационная экономика как имманентная сущность российской цивилизации

Subject/topic. In the article, the author proves that the mobilization economy is an integral essence of the Russian civilization, formed in conditions of severe restrictions that were objective in nature. Methodology. In preparing the article, the author used general scientific methods of the empirical group (observation, analysis and synthesis, logical reasoning), concrete scientific methods (chronological, historical and genetic). Results. Within the framework of the scientific research, the following tasks were solved: the factors (climatic, spatial) that influenced the Russian civilization; the problem of traditionalism and lack of innovation characteristic of Russia was considered; the reasons for the dominance of state institutions were shown and the main mobilization mechanisms used in the historical past of the country were determined. Conclusions/significance. It is proved that the ideas about the mobilization economy as a temporary departure from the general path do not reflect the essence of this phenomenon. The Russian mobilization model is based on the impossibility of conducting extended reproduction. It involves the most severe mode of saving resources, time, effort. Economic practice determines socio-cultural features, which over time turn into an independent economic factor. In these conditions, the state becomes the main actor of public life, developing a strategy for social development and implementing modernization transformations. The reforms lead to increased «mobilization» in the country, i.e. to increased state influence on social processes. Application. The results of scientific research can be used in the formation of forecasts and scenarios of socio economic development of modern Russia.

Ecological Protection Alone Is Not Enough to Conserve Ecosystem Carbon Storage: Evidence from Guangdong, China

The increase in atmospheric CO2 caused by land use and land cover change (LUCC) is one of the drivers of the global climate. As one of the most typical high-urbanization areas, the ecological conflicts occurring in Guangdong Province warrant urgent attention. A growing body of evidence suggests LUCC could guide the future ecosystem carbon storage, but most LUCC simulations are simply based on model results without full consistency with the actual situation. Fully combined with the territorial spatial planning project and based on the land use pattern in 2010 and 2020, we have used the Markov and Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model to simulate the future four land use scenarios: the Business as Usual (BU), Ecological Protection (EP), Farmland Protection (FP), and Economic Development (ED) scenario, and the ecosystem carbon storage was assessed by the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) model. The results show that the built-up area experience further expansion in all scenarios, the largest scale happened in ED and the smallest in FP. Besides, the forest area in the EP scenario is the largest, while the land use pattern developed based on the previous circumstances in the BU scenario. Furthermore, the carbon storage plunged from 1619.21 Tg C in 2010 to 1606.60 Tg C in 2020, with a total decrease of 12.61 Tg C. Urban expansion caused 79.83% of total carbon losses, of which 31.56% came from farmland. In 2030, the carbon storage dropped in all scenarios, and their storage amount has a relationship of FP > BU > EP > ED. To better resolve the ecological problems and conserve ecosystem carbon storage, not only ecological protection but also the protection of the land near the city such as farmland protection strategies must be considered.

Coal-fired power plant CCUS project comprehensive benefit evaluation and forecasting model study

As an important means to reduce CO2 emissions from coal-fired power plants, CCUS project has received more and more attention. In this paper, the comprehensive benefits of CCUS project in coal-fired power plants are defined as economic benefits, environmental benefits and energy benefits, and comprehensive evaluation and prediction analysis of CCUS project in coal-fired power plants are made from these three aspects. The goodness-of-fit of the constructed comprehensive evaluation model can reach 0.99, and the ratio of economic, environmental and energy benefits is about 5: 9: 1. Among them, the best scenario of policy influence, economic development and technological progress can promote CCUS project with benefits of 6.51%, 6.56% and 13.07% respectively. Through case analysis, it can be calculated that when the service life of CCUS project reaches 21.7 years, the investment cost can be recovered from the economic benefits. In the prediction model, the goodness of fit of the economic benefit prediction model is up to 0.95, in which the carbon capture cost of CCUS technology, operation and maintenance cost and carbon price fluctuation play a major role. The goodness of fit of the environmental benefit prediction model can reach 0.90, in which the carbon capture capacity of CCUS project and the world environmental situation are the main influencing factors, and the goodness of fit of the energy benefit prediction model can reach up to 0.95, which is mainly affected by the energy consumption level of CCUS project. The research results show that CCUS project of coal-fired power plants at home and abroad has a good development prospect and remarkable comprehensive benefits. This paper puts forward relevant policy suggestions that are beneficial to the development of CCUS project in coal-fired power plants, with a view to providing empirical evidence for the evaluation and decision-making of CCUS project in coal-fired power plants.

Spatial-Temporal Evolution and Prediction of Carbon Storage: An Integrated Framework Based on the MOP–PLUS–InVEST Model and an Applied Case Study in Hangzhou, East China

Land-use/land-cover change (LUCC) is an important factor affecting carbon storage. It is of great practical significance to quantify the relationship between LUCC and carbon storage for regional ecological protection and sustainable socio-economic development. In this study, we proposed an integrated framework based on multiobjective programming (MOP), the patch-level land-use simulation (PLUS) model, and the integrated valuation of ecosystem service and trade-offs (InVEST) model. First, we used the InVEST model to explore the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of carbon storage in Hangzhou from 2000 to 2020 using land-cover data. Second, we constructed four scenarios of natural development (ND), economic development (ED), ecological protection (EP), and balanced development (BD) using the Markov chain model and MOP, and then simulated the spatial distribution of land cover in 2030 with the PLUS model. Third, the InVEST model was used to predict carbon storage in 2030. Finally, we conducted a spatial correlation of Hangzhou’s carbon storage and delineated carbon storage zoning in Hangzhou. The results showed that: (1) The artificial surfaces grew significantly, while the cultivated land decreased significantly from 2000 to 2020. The overall trend was a decrease in carbon storage, and the changing areas of carbon storage were characterized by local aggregation and sporadic distribution. (2) The areas of artificial surfaces, water bodies, and shrubland will continue to increase up to 2030, while the areas of cultivated land and grassland will continue to decrease. The BD scenario can effectively achieve the multiple objectives of ecological protection and economic development. (3) The carbon storage will continue to decline up to 2030, and the EP scenario will have the highest carbon storage, which will effectively mitigate the carbon storage loss. (4) The spatial distribution of carbon storage in Hangzhou was inextricably linked to the land cover, which was characterized by a high–high concentration and a low–low concentration. The results of the study can provide decision support for the sustainable development of Hangzhou and other cities in the Yangtze River Delta region.

Структурно-динамическая модель транспортных эффектов экономического роста (на примере Ростовской области)

The removal of infrastructural restrictions on economic growth for regions and economic sectors is a priority for Russia. The relevance of the problem of transport effects assessment at the regional level is increasing due to the high depreciation of the existing infrastructure as well as the necessity of creating new facilities that can become a determining factor for economic dynamics acceleration. The paper is devoted to methodology development for the impact assessment of transport infrastructure on the economic development of territories, model tools development for effects’ assessment and their testing experimentally in the case of Rostov region, whose economic growth rate showed an obvious slowdown in recent years. The Rostov region’s model made it possible to obtain a series of probabilistic assessments of scenarios for social and economic development, the outcome of which depends on the implementation of investment activity scenarios and forecasts, dynamics of passenger and cargo flows, and provision of the territory with road and rail infrastructure. Estimations showed that an increase in the index of investments in fixed assets and the share of investments in the “transport” sector in the total volume of investments in fixed assets, accompanied by road quality improvement, stimulates growth of gross regional product and turnover of road transport. At the same time the freight turnover of rail transport has a positive relationship only with the investment index. The significant contribution to the economic growth of Rostov region in 2000–2020 years was connected with the long-term investment multiplier that formed the structure of traffic flows in the value chain. Quantitative estimates of the effects of investments intransport infrastructure can be taken into account in development programs of Rostov region to justify strategic goals and specific objectives of regional development.

Risk assessment of urban rainstorm flood disaster based on land use/land cover simulation

AbstractUnder the urbanization context, land use/land cover (LULC) changes rapidly which affects both the probability of urban flood disaster and its consequence. In order to explore the impact of LULC changes on rainstorm flood disaster risk in the future, a framework of rainstorm flood disaster risk assessment is constructed from natural‐social perspective through LULC simulation based on the patch‐generating land use simulation (PLUS) model in this study. Specifically, the spatial LULC under three future development scenarios (inertia development scenario, economic priority scenario and sustainable development scenario) for the year 2030 is simulated, and then assessment model of rainstorm flood disaster risk is constructed through obtaining inundation depth and social vulnerability based on simulated LULC. Jingdezhen City in China is selected as an example. The results show that proposed risk assessment framework based on PLUS model can be used to detect the risk changes in different development scenarios. The risk of urban rainstorm flood disaster under economic priority scenario is most severe and risk under the sustainable development scenario is the lowest under the same return period rainstorm. Under the sustainable development scenario, green land including forest land, grassland and open water increases, which reduces the surface runoff and decrease the risk of rainstorm flood disaster effectively, however the reduction is limited with the greater rainstorm return period. Therefore, adaptive measures should be implemented together with land use planning to prevent and control urban flood risk. This study provides a framework to predict the future risk of urban rainstorm flood under different development scenarios, which can support for flood disaster risk prevention and urban sustainable development.

Assessing inequality and poverty in long-term growth projections: A general equilibrium analysis for six developing countries

Most projections of long-term economic development, such as the shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenarios in climate change research, do not quantify future effects on income distribution and poverty. To reduce this knowledge gap, we present some numerical simulations based on a recursive-dynamic general equilibrium model with household details, focusing on relative and absolute poverty in six developing countries: Albania, Bolivia, Ethiopia, Malawi, Nicaragua, and Vietnam. The results under the SSP2 reference scenario suggest that the exogenously projected gross domestic product (GDP) and population growth, combined with long-term structural change, produce lower absolute but higher relative poverty. An alternative scenario of stronger trade integration further amplifies the impact on income inequality. Indeed, more international trade tends to increase capital income, which mainly benefits rich households, but generally decreases agricultural earnings, which are important for rural poor households. • We analysed the impact of some long-term projections of economic growth on income distribution and poverty. • We extended a recursive dynamic CGE model with data from household surveys to obtain 12 distinct household classes in six developing countries. • A reference scenario of economic development (SSP2) generally entails widening income inequality. • Accelerated trade integration only marginally amplifies the impact on income inequality, but contributes to eradicating absolute poverty. • Increasing capital incomes and decreasing agricultural earnings are key drivers of the increased inequality.

An integrated modeling approach to predict trophic state changes in a large Brazilian reservoir

Process-based ecological models have been used to study freshwater ecosystems and water quality on a broad scale. However, it is also of pivotal importance to incorporate watershed dynamics and nutrient releases in the downstream freshwaters. Integrated modeling approaches have been used to understand the combined effect of climate warming and land use and land cover (LULC) changes in lake ecosystems. Moreover, most basin-scale water quality models require many datasets and parameters to perform reliable simulations which contributes to reduce studies in poorly monitored basins, most of them located in the Global South. In this study, we developed a coupled hydrological-biogeochemical-ecological modeling framework forced by two regionalized climate models and three LULC change scenarios to forecast trophic state changes in a subtropical multipurpose reservoir for the decade 2050-2060. The projections indicated an average air temperature increase between 2°C and 3°C and a downward trend of the average rainfall and longwave radiation for the 2050s in comparison to the last decade. We found a pattern of 28% increase in total phosphorus (TP) and total chlorophyll-a (TChla) concentrations in the reservoir compared with the historical baseline. The climate warming projections along the 2059 projected LULC and basin's increased economic development scenarios have predicted trophic state index (TSI) shifts between mesotrophic and eutrophic conditions (53.3<TSI<57.7). On the other hand, one of the climate projections along the reduced deforestation scenario indicated a trend towards oligotrophication between 2054 and 2056, however higher phosphorus availability (60µg.l−1<TP<100µg.l−1) and phytoplankton biomass (50µg.l−1<TChla<97µg.l−1) would be expected for the entire decade compared to recent years. The proposed coupled modeling framework demonstrated the potential of open-source tools in water quality management studies, especially for poorly monitored basins, based on climate change trends and human pressure.

A CLUMondo Model-Based Multi-Scenario Land-Use Change Simulation in the Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration, China

Land-use changes have profound effects on both socio-economic development and the environment. As a result, to optimize land-use planning and management, models are often employed to identify land-use patterns and their associated driving forces. In this work, physical and socioeconomic factors within the Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration (YRDUA) from 2000 to 2015 were identified, integrated, and used as the foundation for a CLUMondo model. Subsequently, the Markov model and the CLUMondo model were combined to predict land-use changes in 2035. Natural growth (NG), economic development (ED), ecological protection (EP), and coordinated social and economic development (CSE) scenarios were set according to the land-use date in the assessment. Results showed that: (1) From 2000 to 2015, urban land increased by 8139.5 km2 (3.93%), and the paddy field decreased by 7315.8 km2 (8.78%). The Kappa coefficient of the CLUMondo model was 0.86, indicating that this model can be used to predict the land-use changes of the YRDUA. (2) When this trend was used to simulate landscape patterns in 2035, the land-use structure and landscape patterns varied among the four simulated urban development scenarios. Specifically, urban land increased by 47.6% (NG), 39.6% (ED), 32.9% (EP), and 23.2% (CSE). The paddy field was still the primary landscape, with 35.85% NG, 36.95% ED, 37.01% EP, and 36.96% CSE. Furthermore, under all four scenarios, the landscape pattern tended to simplify and fragment, while connectivity and equilibrium diminished. The results provided herein are intended to elucidate the law of urban agglomeration development and aid in promoting urban sustainable development.

Spatio-Temporal Multi-Scale Analysis of Landscape Ecological Risk in Minjiang River Basin Based on Adaptive Cycle

Landscape ecological security is an environmental requirement for social and economic development. Understanding the dynamic mechanisms of landscape change and the associated ecological risks in regional socioecological systems is necessary for promoting regional sustainable development. Using the Minjiang River Basin as the research area, the Google Earth Engine platform, random forest (RF) model, and FLUS model were employed for land use classification and future multi-scenario prediction. Multisource remote sensing data were used to establish a three-dimensional evaluation index system for an adaptive cycle. Additionally, the “potential-connection-resilience” framework was adopted to explore the spatial and temporal variations in landscape ecological risk in the basin from 2001 to 2035 under different administrative scales and development scenarios. The results showed that from 2001 to 2020, the building and forest areas increased significantly, whereas grassland and plowland areas decreased significantly. Moreover, the spatial fragmentation of the watershed improved significantly with the transformation of large amounts of grassland into forests. The construction area continued to expand in 2035 under different scenarios. Under the economic development scenario, the grassland and plowland areas decreased considerably, but the forest area increased slowly. Under the ecological protection scenario, the expansion of land use was restrained, and the reduction rate of grassland and cultivated land was moderated. From 2001 to 2020, the overall ecological risk was at a medium-low level and showed a decreasing trend, and the fragmentation degree of the forest had a significant impact on ecological risk. By 2035, landscape ecological risks increased under different development scenarios, and construction land expansion had become the dominant factor affecting the risk level. By evaluating the distribution and development trend of ecologically high-risk areas in the Minjiang River Basin, the results of this study provide basic support for the rational planning of land resources in the basin and decision making for future sustainable development efforts.

FORMATION OF A MECHANISM FOR STIMULATION OF INNOVATIVE AND TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENT AT THE REGIONAL LEVEL

Purpose. The purpose of this study is to formation of a mechanism for the creation of a platform for innovative cooperation and the establishment of mutually beneficial economic relations between business entities and institutions of higher education (scientific institutions) for the development and implementation of innovations, stimulating investments in the modernization and technical re-equipment of the technical and technological base of industrial production at the regional level. Design/methodology/approach. In the article, the author used analysis, statistical, comparison, scenario, generalization, and abstract-logical methods in formulating conclusions and recommendations in order to justify the importance of forming a mechanism for creating a platform for innovative cooperation and establishing mutually beneficial economic relations between business entities and institutions of higher education (scientific institutions) for the development and implementation of technological innovations, and therefore, to justify the relevance of the chosen research topic. On the basis of the literature review, the author determined the goals of analyzing the indicators of innovative activity of industrial enterprises of the Lviv region and substantiated the main trends of socio-economic development of the Lviv region. The scenarios of the economic development of the Lviv Oblast considered by the author made it possible to form conclusions, the reliability of which is based on the interpretation of the indicators calculated in the analytical part. Findings. The hypothesis that the innovative model of the economy in modern conditions is characterized, first of all, by the readiness of the business entities forming it to compete, search for and develop new markets, has been proven. Achieving this state in industry at the regional level is possible only thanks to the introduction of technological innovations, entering the market with new knowledge-intensive, competitive products. Also, today’s requirement, in particular at the stage of the Russian-Ukrainian war, which is devastating for the national economy, is the creation of stimulating mechanisms adequate to the challenges of the times for investing in innovative technological processes, in the restoration of Ukrainian production on an innovative basis. The innovative and productive way of development of the region’s industry is connected with the implementation of the principles of narrow specialization in the region’s economy, comprehensive modernization, structural transformation not only of industry, but also of all major types of economic activity and their integration with the region’s innovative and scientific and educational systems. The main task of the mechanism of innovative cooperation is to stimulate the activity of scientists, researchers, innovators in cooperation with industrialists (entrepreneurs) to increase the level of scientific and technical and technical and technological achievements, increase innovative activity and the culture of interaction of the research and entrepreneurial spheres. Practical implications. The results of this study are of interest to higher education institutions, business entities and regional authorities, which seek to improve the level of the innovative environment of the region in accordance with the conditions of competitive markets and to ensure the stimulation of innovative and technological development of industrial enterprises. In addition, the results can help researchers of higher education institutions to improve the tools of dissemination of innovative knowledge, which are used to transform the business environment on the basis of technological innovation. Originality/value. This study emphasizes the peculiarities of innovative activity of industrial enterprises of Lviv region and the main trends of socio-economic development of Lviv region. The outline of the economic development scenarios of the Lviv Oblast made it possible to formulate principles and tasks regarding the regional stimulation of innovative activity. Provide recommendations to regional authorities regarding the mechanisms of competitive selection and co-financing of the implementation of innovative projects.

A Multi-Scenario Land Expansion Simulation Method from Ecosystem Services Perspective of Coastal Urban Agglomeration: A Case Study of GHM-GBA, China

Balancing urban development and ecosystem conservation in the context of natural resource scarcity can provide scientific guidance for land use planning. We integrated research methods, such as ecosystem services (ES) assessment, coastal vulnerability assessment, multi-objective linear planning, and land use change simulation, to develop a new model framework for multi-scenario urban land expansion simulation based on ecosystem services. In relation to the land use scale and constraints, we simulated three types of scenarios in 2035, including a status quo continuity scenario (SCS), economic development scenario (EDS), and ecological protection scenario (EPS), to explore the ideal land use optimization strategies to enhance ES and land use efficiency. The results indicated that the scale of construction land under the three scenarios grew, and arable land and grassland had the largest losses. The continued urban expansion in the Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macao Greater Bay Area has already had a significant negative impact on ecosystem services and could result in a total ESV loss of USD 28.1 billion by 2035 if an economic-first development model is adopted. Based on the hotspots of urban construction land expansion in the ecological–economic priority game, we proposed a classification and optimization strategy for land use, including proactive restoration of damaged ecological spaces with high ESVs (Zhaoqing City and Huizhou City), optimization of green space quality and formation of ecological corridors (Guangzhou City, Shenzhen City, Hong Kong, and Macao), and implementation of natural resource conservation planning and spatial regulation in the urban–rural integration area (Foshan City and Dongguan City). This research framework scientifically allocates the “quality” of ecosystem values and “quantity” of natural resources and provides a reference for regional “bottom-up” territorial spatial planning.

Valuation of Land-Use/Land-Cover-Based Ecosystem Services in Afghanistan—An Assessment of the Past and Future

Being one of the weakest economies in the world, livelihoods in Afghanistan remain highly dependent on local ecosystem services. However, the risk of ecosystem services degradation in Afghanistan over the past two decades has significantly increased, mainly due to rapid changes in land-use and land-cover (LULC). As such, policy makers must be able to estimate the impact of LULC changes on various ecosystem services. By utilizing GlobeLand30 land cover products for 2000, 2010 and 2020, and by adopting the value transfer method, this study assessed the ecosystem services value (ESV) changes in response to the changes of LULC in Afghanistan. Additionally, the dynamics of the land system (DLS) model was innovatively coupled with linear programming to predict likely scenarios of ESV changes by 2030. The predicted results were also validated against actual land cover and achieved a Kappa value of 0.78. The results showed that over the 20-year period, ecologically important LULC categories such as forest, water bodies and grassland were severely unstable and rapidly decreasing in scope. These LULC types were being threatened by agricultural, built-up and unused lands. During this period, we estimated a decrease in the total ESV from 161 billion USD in 2000 to 152.27 billion USD in 2020. About 92% of this decrease was shared by supporting and provisioning services. The simulated scenarios also showed that ESV will likely further decrease under Business-As-Usual (BAU), and Rapid Economic Development (RED) scenarios. Positively, an Environmental Protection (ENP) scenario is predicted, with a 4.5% increase in ESV by 2030. However, achieving this scenario requires the enforcement of strict environmental protection measures.

Scenario Modeling of Energy Policies for Sustainable Development

The article deals with the impacts of economic, ecological, and social development scenarios in ensuring sustainable energy development. EU countries were the statistical bases of the study; the assessment period was from 2000 to 2019. The information bases of the research were the World Bank, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, and the European Commission data. Based on the generalized method of moments, the authors investigated the dependence of energy consumption on economic, environmental, and social development factors. The results confirm the positive relationship between renewable energy consumption and GDP per capita, foreign direct investment, and energy depletion. A negative relationship between the consumption of renewable energy, CO2 emissions, and domestic gas emissions was proved. Based on intelligent data analysis methods (methods involving one-dimensional branching CART and agglomeration), countries were clustered depending on the nature of the energy development policy; portraits of these clusters were formalized. The study results can be useful to authorized bodies when determining the most effective mechanisms for forming and implementing sustainable energy development policies.