Scenarios In Research Research Articles

Influence of Tsunami-Driven Shipping Containers’ Layout on Their Motion

This study investigated the interaction between containers under extreme hydrodynamic conditions modeled on tsunamis to assess whether the number and layout of containers affect their motion and to guide future studies on numerical simulations describing tsunami-debris motion. The three-dimensional Fluid–Structure–Sediment–Seabed Interaction Model (FS3M), which can compute tsunami–container interaction, was used as a numerical test model, and numerical results for the specific target of the simulation were compared with experimental data to check the validity and computational accuracy of the FS3M. The study showed that the number of rows (Nx), columns (Ny), and stacks (Nz) in the initial arrangement of containers constitute the main factor affecting the area where the containers spread and their drift motion velocity. An increase in Nx and Nz can effectively reduce the container drift velocity. Conversely, as Ny increases, the drift motion velocity of the center of gravity of the entire group increases. The results of this study can facilitate the development of more realistic building structure scenarios in future research that consider the proposed characteristic damage estimation and comprehensive assessment methods laid out herein.

Assessing inequality and poverty in long-term growth projections: A general equilibrium analysis for six developing countries

Most projections of long-term economic development, such as the shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenarios in climate change research, do not quantify future effects on income distribution and poverty. To reduce this knowledge gap, we present some numerical simulations based on a recursive-dynamic general equilibrium model with household details, focusing on relative and absolute poverty in six developing countries: Albania, Bolivia, Ethiopia, Malawi, Nicaragua, and Vietnam. The results under the SSP2 reference scenario suggest that the exogenously projected gross domestic product (GDP) and population growth, combined with long-term structural change, produce lower absolute but higher relative poverty. An alternative scenario of stronger trade integration further amplifies the impact on income inequality. Indeed, more international trade tends to increase capital income, which mainly benefits rich households, but generally decreases agricultural earnings, which are important for rural poor households. • We analysed the impact of some long-term projections of economic growth on income distribution and poverty. • We extended a recursive dynamic CGE model with data from household surveys to obtain 12 distinct household classes in six developing countries. • A reference scenario of economic development (SSP2) generally entails widening income inequality. • Accelerated trade integration only marginally amplifies the impact on income inequality, but contributes to eradicating absolute poverty. • Increasing capital incomes and decreasing agricultural earnings are key drivers of the increased inequality.

Is the Product Method More Efficient Than the Difference Method for Assessing Mediation?

Mediation analysis is widely used in biomedical research to quantify the extent to which the effect from an exposure on a health outcome is through a mediator and the extent to which the effect is direct. A traditional approach for quantifying mediation is through the difference method. The other popular approach uses a counterfactual framework from which the product method arises. However, there is little prior work to articulate which method is more efficient for estimating 2 key quantities in mediation analysis, the natural indirect effect and mediation proportion. To fill in this gap, we investigated the asymptotic relative efficiency for mediation measure estimators given by the product method and the difference method. We considered 4 data types characterized by continuous and binary mediators and outcomes. Under certain conditions, we show analytically that the product method is equally efficient to the difference method, or more efficient. However, our numerical studies demonstrate that the difference method is usually at least 90% as efficient as the product method under realistic scenarios in epidemiologic research, especially for estimating the mediation proportion. We demonstrate the efficiency results by analyzing the MaxART study (Eswatini, 2014-2017), which aimed to evaluate the effectiveness of the early access to antiretroviral therapy among human immunodeficiency virus-positive patients.

VenusAI: An artificial intelligence platform for scientific discovery on supercomputers

Since the machine learning platform can provide one-stop artificial intelligence (AI) application solutions, it has been widely used in the industrial and commercial internet fields in recent years. Based on the heterogeneous accelerator cards, scientific discovery using large-scale computation and massive data is a significant tendency in the future. However, building a platform for scientific discovery remains challenging, including large-scale heterogeneous resource scheduling and support for massive multi-source data. To free researchers from tedious resource management and environmental configuration, we propose a VenusAI platform for large-scale computing scenarios in scientific research, based on heterogeneous resources scheduling framework. This paper firstly illustrates the VenusAI platform architecture design scheme based on the supercomputers and elaborates on the virtualization and containerization of the underlying hardware resources. Next, a technical framework for heterogeneous resource aggregation and scheduling is proposed. A unified resource interface in the application service layer is introduced. Considering the core three parts of the AI scenario: data, model, and computing power, modularized service decoupling is carried out. Furthermore, three types of experiments are evaluated on the supercomputers and show that the performance of the scheduling framework on virtual clusters is better than that on common clusters. Finally, three scientific discovery applications deployed on VenusAI, i.e., new energy forecasting, materials design, and unmanned aerial vehicle planning, demonstrate the advantages of the platform in solving practical scientific problems.

Patient-Specific Modelling and Parameter Optimisation to Simulate Dilated Cardiomyopathy in Children

PurposeLumped parameter modelling has been widely used to simulate cardiac function and physiological scenarios in cardiovascular research. Whereas several patient-specific lumped parameter models have been reported for adults, there is a limited number of studies aiming to simulate cardiac function in children. The aim of this study is to simulate patient-specific cardiovascular dynamics in children diagnosed with dilated cardiomyopathy, using a lumped parameter model.MethodsPatient data including age, gender, heart rate, left and right ventricular end-systolic and end-diastolic volumes, cardiac output, systolic and diastolic aortic pressures were collected from 3 patients at Great Ormond Street Hospital for Children, London, UK. Ventricular geometrical data were additionally retrieved from cardiovascular magnetic resonance images. 23 parameters in the lumped parameter model were optimised to simulate systolic and diastolic pressures, end-systolic and end-diastolic volumes, cardiac output and left and right ventricular diameters in the patients using a direct search optimisation method.ResultsDifference between the haemodynamic parameters in the optimised cardiovascular system models and clinical data was less than 10%.ConclusionThe simulation results show the potential of patient-specific lumped parameter modelling to simulate clinical cases. Modelling patient specific cardiac function and blood flow in the paediatric patients would allow us to evaluate a variety of physiological scenarios and treatment options.

РИЗИКИ, ЩО ВПЛИВАЮТЬ НА ФУНКЦІОНУВАННЯ КОМЕРЦІЙНИХ ПІДРИЄМСТВ ПІД ЧАС ВІЙСЬКОВОГО СТАНУ В УКРАЇНІ, ТА СЦЕНАРІЇ ЇХ МІНІМІЗАЦІЇ

The article is devoted to the topical issues of identifying key risks that affect the functioning of commercial enterprises during the martial law in Ukraine, and developing scenarios for their minimization. The key risks, which are the most dangerous, were considered: lack of client demand for finished products or services; personnel turnover and the impossibility of their timely replenishment and quality training; failure to fulfill and process large volumes of orders due to an unsatisfactory level of functioning of the CRM system; significant restrictions or the complete impossibility of receiving goods from raw material/service suppliers; possible consequences of hostilities in Ukraine (destruction of an enterprise); lack of mobility in the event of the destruction of the enterprise and a sufficient level of automated constructions of business processes. Experts were asked to rate their level of concern for each of the identified risks. Based on the results of the survey, the four most critical risks were determined, which, according to experts, have a significant impact on the activities of commercial enterprises in Ukraine, namely: lack of mobility in the event of the destruction of the enterprise and a sufficient level of automated constructions of business processes; destruction of the enterprise as a result of the hostilities in Ukraine; significant restrictions or complete impossibility of receiving goods from suppliers of raw materials or services; inability to fulfill and process large volumes of orders due to an unsatisfactory level of functioning of the CRM system. Based on the results of the conducted research, scenarios for minimizing the identified risks were developed and considered. The process of formation of evacuation mobile groups, which must resume the activity of a commercial enterprise in a short period of time, regardless of its new location, taking into account the condition of the availability of equipment or without it, was defined and visualized. The developed scenarios in the present research are as a visual plan of ways to preserve the functioning of a commercial enterprise under the conditions of the destructive consequences of military operations on the territory of Ukraine.

Advanced techniques for gene heterogeneity research: Single‐cell sequencing and on‐chip gene analysis systems

AbstractGene heterogeneity leads to the differences in cellular behaviors in a wide range, such as tumor drug‐resistant mutation, epithelial‐mesenchymal transition, and migration, posing significant challenges to the development of biomedicine. Traditional gene analysis methods, such as polymerase chain reaction, employ a mass of cells as the gene source, resulting in that the gene properties from a specific single cell are hidden in massive gene information. Recent decades have seen the emerging single‐cell gene analysis techniques with their unprecedented opportunities to study gene heterogeneity with high precision and high throughput. In this review, we summarized the state‐of‐the‐art techniques for single‐cell sequencing and on‐chip gene analysis systems. The principles of each technique are introduced in detail, with the focus on the application scenarios in gene heterogeneity research. Looking forward, we also introduced the challenges in current technologies and point out the future direction for facilitating the technical improvement and clinical applications of single‐cell gene analysis techniques.

Simulation Approach for Day-Ahead Production Scheduling of a Power Plant.

This paper targets to show a practical realization of such contemporary notions of modern industrial IT as ‘digitalization’ and ‘big data’ in referent example of energy producing enterprise. Huge historical databases of technological parameters accumulated by modern industrial control systems has transformed to a precious asset of modern companies. Deep knowledge extraction approach applied to the accumulated data can bring additional benefits. The research grounds on classical methodology of mathematical simulation. Using a programmatic realization of numerical Monte-Carlo procedure we create empirical simulation models of real energy producing assets based on their observed behavior. As a result we are able to conduct so called ‘what-if’ analysis and compare different production scenarios for modeled assets. The investigation approach includes the following steps: approximate the output power characteristics of the power generating units; calculate cross-correlation for all output powers with all available measurements collected by power station SCADA system; create several day working scenarios for research; for each possible approximation and all combinations of influencing parameters conduct Monte-Carlo recalculation sessions to define the scenario that gives better day margin for power plant.

The Roman fish tanks of the Western Mediterranean basin as potential scenarios for research on sea-level changes

PurposeThis paper analyses Roman fish tanks, which have functional elements that could be used to research on palaeo-sea-levels. Thus, the conditions of 37 installations in the Western Mediterranean basin are reviewed to identify those that have the best environmental and constructive conditions to be analyzed.Design/methodology/approachThe methodology was largely based on the review of existing scientific bibliography dealing with sea-level variations from studies on historical constructions, existing historical documentation on Roman fish tanks on the Mediterranean coast, as well as the fieldwork carried out in fish tanks on the Mediterranean coasts.FindingsThe Roman coastal fish tanks located in the shoreline of the Western Mediterranean Sea have turned out to be an excellent indicator of sea-level changes. Nevertheless, current coastal retreat, erosion and storm surges are posing significant threats to their preservation, and they could be considered as a heritage at risk of disappearance. Moreover, variations in the tectonic behaviour of the different coastal sectors make it challenging to select these facilities as an indicator of the sea level.Originality/valueThe analysis of Late Holocene sea-level changes and palaeoenvironments from archaeological and biological evidences, although not without difficulties, is very convenient because it provides very precise data that cannot be obtained with other absolute dating methods. This approach is increasingly gaining popularity with researchers and is very innovative in its method of combining the results of several scientific disciplines.

Methodology for constructing scenarios for health policy research: The case of coverage decision-making for drugs for rare diseases in Canada

When futures are uncertain and technological developments stand to have large impacts on healthcare systems, scenario studies can be deployed as a tool for policy exploration. We describe the important differences between firm-based and policy-oriented scenarios, and show how to adapt them for health policy. Our approach involves a five-phase process. Background interviews with a diverse group of stakeholders are used to identify focal points and future challenges. Interview data is analyzed to identify the key drivers of future challenges, which are then used to develop a set of scenarios. The scenarios are deployed in a focus group setting with relevant health policy makers and advisors. We illustrate this approach with our scenario study on coverage decision-making for drugs for rare diseases in Canada. Our focus here is on the extension and application of this scenario method and a sharing of our experiences while applying this method. We demonstrate how scenarios can be applied to identify targets of robust health policy strategies that will be of value irrespective how the future unfolds. Our post-focus group questionnaire show that the majority of participants found the scenario focus group useful, and helped them to identify additional challenges regarding drugs for rare diseases.

Crystal market: a way to study knowledge-based dynamic capabilities

PurposeIn this work, the authors address a gap in the literature on the contribution of dynamic capabilities and internal contingencies to performance in a highly competitive environment.Design/methodology/approachThe authors use data from the Premier Football (soccer) League in Portugal over ten years. This league works as a laboratorial setting and enables the authors to identify the influences of the variables in the study.FindingsThe authors find evidence that human capital is decisive to a team's performance. This study’s findings question the role of the alignment between the different levels of the organization: strategic, tactical and operational.Research limitations/implicationsWith this work, the authors stress the importance (1) of using alternative scenarios in management research and (2) of the way that human and social capitals and managerial cognition and internal contingencies influence the development of knowledge-based dynamic capabilities, especially in highly regulated industries such has sports clubs.Practical implicationsThis work provides evidence on the importance of strategic coherence at different structural levels of the organization. Furthermore, it highlights the need to secure the right resources at the right time.Originality/valueThe authors propose a setting to run the study: a crystal market and an original measure of performance that reflect the relative achievement of market potential.

VANET simulators: an updated review

Research on VANETs (vehicular ad hoc networks) date back to the beginning of the 2000s. The possibility of enabling communication between vehicles through a wireless network stimulated the creation of new protocols, devices, and diverse utilization scenarios. Due to the intrinsic difficulties of using a real testbed to evaluate these research contributions, several simulators were developed at the time. Recently, with the advent of autonomous vehicles and the emergence of novel technologies (e.g., 5G and edge computing), new research challenges on VANETs are coming into sight. Therefore, revisiting VANET simulators is required to identify if they are still capable of evaluating these new scenarios. This paper presents an updated review of VANET simulators, showing their current state and capabilities to assess novel scenarios in VANET research. Based on this analysis, we identify open research challenges that should be addressed in current and future VANET simulators.

Historical and future global burned area with changing climate and human demography

Summary Wildfires influence terrestrial carbon cycling and represent a safety risk, and yet a process-based understanding of their frequency and spatial distributions remains elusive. We combine satellite-based observations with an enhanced dynamic global vegetation model to make regionally resolved global assessments of burned area (BA) responses to changing climate, derived from 34 Earth system models and human demographics for 1860–2100. Limited by climate and socioeconomics, recent BA has decreased, especially in central South America and mesic African savannas. However, future simulations predict increasing BA due to changing climate, rapid population density growth, and urbanization. BA increases are especially notable at high latitudes, due to accelerated warming, and over the tropics and subtropics, due to drying and human ignitions. Conversely, rapid urbanization also limits BA via enhanced fire suppression in the immediate vicinity of settlements, offsetting the potential for dramatic future increases, depending on warming extent. Our analysis provides further insight into regional and global BA trends, highlighting the importance of including human demographic change in models for wildfire under changing climate.

Physics and applications of three-ion ICRF scenarios for fusion research

This paper summarizes the physical principles behind the novel three-ion scenarios using radio frequency waves in the ion cyclotron range of frequencies (ICRF). We discuss how to transform mode conversion electron heating into a new flexible ICRF technique for ion cyclotron heating and fast-ion generation in multi-ion species plasmas. The theoretical section provides practical recipes for selecting the plasma composition to realize three-ion ICRF scenarios, including two equivalent possibilities for the choice of resonant absorbers that have been identified. The theoretical findings have been convincingly confirmed by the proof-of-principle experiments in mixed H–D plasmas on the Alcator C-Mod and JET tokamaks, using thermal 3He and fast D ions from neutral beam injection as resonant absorbers. Since 2018, significant progress has been made on the ASDEX Upgrade and JET tokamaks in H–4He and H–D plasmas, guided by the ITER needs. Furthermore, the scenario was also successfully applied in JET D–3He plasmas as a technique to generate fusion-born alpha particles and study effects of fast ions on plasma confinement under ITER-relevant plasma heating conditions. Tuned for the central deposition of ICRF power in a small region in the plasma core of large devices such as JET, three-ion ICRF scenarios are efficient in generating large populations of passing fast ions and modifying the q-profile. Recent experimental and modeling developments have expanded the use of three-ion scenarios from dedicated ICRF studies to a flexible tool with a broad range of different applications in fusion research.

Impacts of climate change on methylmercury formation and bioaccumulation in the 21st century ocean

Impacts of climate change on methylmercury formation and bioaccumulation in the 21st century ocean

Facing up to the Hard Problem of Consciousness as an Integrated Information Theorist

In this paper we provide a philosophical analysis of the Hard Problem of consciousness and the implications of conceivability scenarios for current neuroscientific research. In particular, we focus on one of the most prominent neuroscientific theories of consciousness, integrated information theory (IIT). After a brief introduction on IIT, we present Chalmers’ original formulation and propose our own layered view of the hard problem, showing how 2 separate issues can be distinguished. More specifically, we argue that it’s possible to disentangle a core problem of consciousness from a layered hard problem, the latter being essentially connected to Chalmers’ conceivability argument. We then assess the relation between the Hard Problem and IIT, showing how the theory resists conceivability scenarios, and how it is equipped to face up to the hard problem in its broadest acceptation.

Distorting the view of our climate future: The misuse and abuse of climate pathways and scenarios

Climate science research and assessments under the umbrella of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) have misused scenarios for more than a decade. Symptoms of misuse have included the treatment of an unrealistic, extreme scenario as the world’s most likely future in the absence of climate policy and the illogical comparison of climate projections across inconsistent global development trajectories. Reasons why such misuse arose include (a) competing demands for scenarios from users in diverse academic disciplines that ultimately conflated exploratory and policy relevant pathways, (b) the evolving role of the IPCC – which extended its mandate in a way that creates an inter-relationship between literature assessment and literature coordination, (c) unforeseen consequences of employing a temporary approach to scenario development, (d) maintaining research practices that normalize careless use of scenarios, and (e) the inherent complexity and technicality of scenarios in model-based research and in support of policy. Consequently, much of the climate research community is presently off-track from scientific coherence and policy-relevance. Attempts to address scenario misuse within the community have thus far not worked. The result has been the widespread production of myopic or misleading perspectives on future climate change and climate policy. Until reform is implemented, we can expect the production of such perspectives to continue, threatening the overall credibility of the IPCC and associated climate research. However, because many aspects of climate change discourse are contingent on scenarios, there is considerable momentum that will make such a course correction difficult and contested - even as efforts to improve scenarios have informed research that will be included in the IPCC 6th Assessment.

Statements About the Pervasiveness of Behavior Require Data About the Pervasiveness of Behavior.

Despite recent close attention to issues related to the reliability of psychological research (e.g., the replication crisis), issues of the validity of this research have not been considered to the same extent. This paper highlights an issue that calls into question the validity of the common research practice of studying samples of individuals, and using sample-based statistics to infer generalizations that are applied not only to the parent population, but to individuals. The lack of ergodicity in human data means that such generalizations are not justified. This problem is illustrated with respect to two common scenarios in psychological research that raise questions for the sorts of theories that are typically proposed to explain human behavior and cognition. The paper presents a method of data analysis that requires closer attention to the range of behaviors exhibited by individuals in our research to determine the pervasiveness of effects observed in sample data. Such an approach to data analysis will produce results that are more in tune with the types of generalizations typical in reports of psychological research than mainstream analysis methods.

Educação Financeira: um estudo dos livros dos 4º e 5º anos do Ensino Fundamental no âmbito da Estratégia Nacional de Educação Financeira (ENEF)

Neste estudo objetivamos identificar, a partir da análise dos livros do 4º e 5º anos do Ensino Fundamental propostos pela Estratégia Nacional de Educação Financeira (ENEF), as possibilidades de trabalho com a Educação Financeira (EF). Utilizamos como método a análise documental, tanto nos livros do aluno quanto nos do professor. Baseamo-nos no recorte dos ambientes de aprendizagem presentes na Educação Matemática Crítica (EMC) proposta por Skovsmose (2000; 2014). Como resultados, encontramos que os livros não defendem o que é certo ou errado em EF, mas levam à reflexão, e contemplam a transversalidade do tema EF, que é abordado de forma integrada às diferentes áreas do conhecimento. Encontramos ainda algumas atividades que não contemplam diretamente a EF, o que consideramos como um dos aspectos de possível fragilidade do material. Consideramos que, em geral, os livros trazem boas oportunidades para a construção de cenários para investigação e para a discussão sobre a EF.

Foregone Opportunities and Choosing Not to Act: Replications of Inaction Inertia Effect

Inaction inertia is the phenomenon that forgoing an initial attractive opportunity decreases the likelihood of taking a subsequent opportunity that is less attractive, even when the subsequent opportunity still offers positive value. We conducted three preregistered replications of Tykocinski et al.’s Experiments 1 and 2’s four scenarios in four samples (N = 1,555). We found consistent findings across samples, with the inaction inertia effect dependent on the scenario used. Strongest support was for the car scenario (d = −0.57 to −0.68) and the ski scenario (d = −0.18 to −0.67), with mixed findings for the fitness scenario (large-small: d = −0.62; control contrasts: opposite to predictions) and weak to no effects for the flyer scenario (d = −0.14 to 0.02). We conclude that context is important in studying inaction inertia, recommend the car and ski scenarios for follow-up research on inaction inertia, and discuss implications for future research.