Development Scenarios Research Articles

Developing a balanced strategy: A multi-objective model for emissions reduction and development of civil aviation in China

Due to the impact of COVID-19, China's civil airlines face an urgent imperative: to devise strategies that reconcile their development goals with the imperative of reducing emissions. Consequently, we have developed a multi-objective model that assesses the trade-offs between mitigation efforts and developmental pursuits. Furthermore, we have established future recovery and development scenarios for the post-epidemic era, with a specific focus on two major Chinese civil airlines selected for comprehensive case studies. Results show that: Our model can be used as a reference for airlines when deciding to introduce aircraft types and to purchase SAF fuel, and it can also offset the impact of rapidly rising airline costs due to fuel and aircraft type prices; In the scenario of considerable development of the operational level, the optimal investment strategy of the case companies would introduce mainly two types of aircraft, the A320NEO and the B737MAX8, which account for about 28.2 percent and 32.6 percent of the proportion of the types of aircraft introduced in the year. The results of the sensitivity analysis show that the main factor affecting the use of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) by civil aviation enterprises is the SAF supply cap. Only when the supply ceiling is increased by 90 % does the SAF usage rate change significantly with the SAF price. Finally, policy proposals are made on the use of clean fuels, the introduction of aircraft types and the resumption of the development of aviation companies.

EXPERT-ANALYTICAL PRODUCT: APPROACHES TO FORMATION AND IMPLEMENTATION IN THE COMMUNICATION ENVIRONMENT OF POLITICAL SECURITY

The article is devoted to the unification of approaches to the analysis of the public information environment, as well as the coordination of efforts to counter information aggression on a decentralized basis. The purpose of the study is to establish the main features and principles of the formation of an expert-analytical product within the framework of strengthening the security capacity of Ukrainian society. The value of a quick asymmetric information response in the form of discrediting the source, disavowing the information provided and/or using errors or mistakes in the information provided to one’s advantage is characterized. It was emphasized that the targeting of political and security content should also take into account the socio-demographic and behavioral characteristics (data) of the community to which the information is directed. The creativity of the expert-analytical security product is analyzed, which means a creative approach to counter hostile informational provocations and invasions. The importance of the principle of responsiveness, which means the compliance of the appearance of content with time dimensions and the requirements of the political and security situation, is revealed. It was found that the appearance of expert political and security materials should precede the events, be carried out according to the plan of media events, as well as within the framework of crisis situations. It was revealed that the empirical nature of the expert-analytical product involves the use of various models for assessing threats to political security. It is proven that the development of various scenarios of expert public content contributes to the development of the political situation in the future in the desired direction. It has been established that the expert-analytical product of public direction (reports, assessments, analytical summaries, etc.) should not only be broadcast in an accessible (understandable) language. It is assumed that the complexity and completeness of information means its completeness in terms of known and unknown facts. It has been established that the value neutrality of communication messages means avoiding the promotion of ideological messages and motivational components, except when such materials are not included in special promotions and operations. It was found that open discussion leaves the possibility of the information consumer to interactively interact with the text of the message and data. It was concluded that a promising direction of information security activity is asymmetric action in relation to operational massive support of political actions of hostile power institutions on the international arena.

The Impact of Future Land Use Change on Carbon Emission and Its Optimization Strategy

Rapidly changing climate issues and increasingly severe carbon emissions are great challenges to the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality strategy. Analyzing the impact of future land use changes on carbon emissions can provide an important basis and reference for scientifically constructing a low-carbon and sustainable territorial spatial planning, as well as realizing the goal of the dual-carbon strategy. Based on land use data, agricultural production activity data, and energy consumption statistics, this study simulated the land use changes of the Yangtze River Delta region (YRDR) from 2030 to 2060 under the natural development (ND) scenario and sustainable development (SD) scenario by using the Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model and analyzed the impacts of future land use changes on carbon emissions. The results showed that: (1) The land use simulation results obtained by using the PLUS model under the sustainable development scenario were highly consistent with the actual land use with an OA value of 97.0%, a Kappa coefficient of 0.952, and a FoM coefficient of 0.403; (2) Based on the simulated land use under the SD scenario from 2030 to 2060, the quantity of construction land was effectively controlled, and the spatial distributions of cropland and forests were found to dominate in the north and south of the Yangtze River, respectively; (3) Anhui Province was the major contributor (accounted for 49.5%) to the net carbon absorption by cropland while Zhejiang Province was the major contributor (accounted for 63.3%) to the net carbon absorption by forest in the YRDR during the period 2020–2060 under the SD scenario; (4) Carbon emissions from construction land were the main source of carbon emissions from land use in the YRDR during the period 2020–2060 with proportions higher than 99% under both the ND and SD development scenarios. These findings underscore the urgent need for the government to take measures to balance the relationships between cropland and ecological protection and economic development, which provides a reference for the optimization of land use structure and policy formulation in the future.

Driving mechanisms and multi-scenario simulation of land use change based on National Land Survey Data: a case in Jianghan Plain, China

The Jianghan Plain is simultaneously responsible for ecological protection, food security and urbanization, and land use conflicts are prominent. Revealing the driving mechanism of land use/cover change (LUCC) and simulating the land use pattern can help to coordinate the land use conflicts in the future. Utilizing the National Land Survey Data (NLSD) of Jiangling County in Jianghan Plain (2011–2020) and the patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) model, this paper analyzed the characteristics of land use evolution, applied the random forest classification (RFC) to analyze the driving mechanism, simulated the 2035 land use pattern under three scenarios of natural development, planning guidance and ecological protection through Markov and Cellular Automaton based on multiple random seeds (CARS) models, and proposed several countermeasures. The study found that: 1) From 2011 to 2020, town construction land increased, village construction land, agricultural land and ecological land decreased. 2) The factors driving LUCC were socio-economic factors, spatial factors, and natural factors in descending order. 3) In the three scenarios, the trend of construction land expansion, agricultural land and ecological land encroachment is inevitable by 2035. 4) It is imperative to actively advocate for large-scale mechanization and informatization of agricultural production, encourage the repurposing of idle and inefficiently used construction land, facilitate multi-purpose land utilization, and implement a policy of locally balancing occupation and compensation for cultivated and ecological land. 5) When employing the PLUS model to simulate LUCC, using continuous NLSD yielded more accurate results than remote sensing image interpretation data. This study offers a theoretical basis for the coordinated development of land use in Jianghan Plain, and presents a method to enhance the simulation accuracy of the PLUS model.

Development and Validation of Virtual Reality Scenarios to Improve Disability Awareness among Museum Employees

Development and Validation of Virtual Reality Scenarios to Improve Disability Awareness among Museum Employees

Evaluation of Energy-Production Preferences Using ANP Methodology Based on a Comprehensive Residential Survey

Public opinion significantly influences discussions on the selection of technologies for future energy systems. Our goal was to support the development of energy scenarios by evaluating decision-making criteria and energy-production alternatives at a national level. The importance of the criteria and the determination of energy-production preferences were based on a social survey conducted in European countries. However, public opinions on specific technologies are frequently based on limited knowledge and can vary depending on the context. In our study, we analyzed the comparative data sets from an international survey on energy sources using three approaches: direct ranking, a comparison using various criteria, and classifying the knowledge of technologies. The evaluated results not only provide an excellent opportunity for the development of energy scenarios but also enable policymakers to develop more effective communication strategies to inform the public about technological choices and raise awareness of the need for modifications to the energy system.

Медиапространство как направление массовой коммуникации у студентов

Modern media space is an actively developing area of mass communication. A number of modern historians define it as a perspective for a negative scenario of social development. Modern man is actively involved in the media space, which forms his priorities, moods, tastes. Complements and diversifies leisure time. Almost everyone's day begins and ends with watching media content. Children and young people turned out to be especially active users. This trend is alarming. Live human communication is being replaced by a digital copy that does not require special energy costs from the user. Therefore, special attention should be paid to the problems of the production of audiovisual content in the media space. Building high-quality information content will minimize the negative component of the transforming communication process.

Multi-Scenario Simulation of Land Use Change and Ecosystem Service Value Based on the Markov–FLUS Model in Ezhou City, China

Changes in land use patterns, types, and intensities significantly impact ecosystem services. This study follows the time series logic from history to the expected future to investigate the spatial and temporal characteristics of land use changes in Ezhou and their potential impacts on the ecosystem services value (ESV). The results show that the Markov–FLUS model has strong applicability in predicting the spatial pattern of land use, with a Kappa coefficient of 0.9433 and a FoM value of 0.1080. Between 2000 and 2020, construction land expanded continuously, while water area remained relatively stable, and other land types experienced varying degrees of contraction. Notably, the area of construction land expanded significantly compared to 2000, and it expanded by 70.99% in 2020. Moreover, the watershed area expanded by 9.30% from 2000 to 2010, but there was very little change in the following 10 years. Under the three scenarios, significant differences in land use changes were observed in Ezhou City, driven by human activities, particularly the strong expansion of construction land. In the inertial development scenario, construction land expanded to 313.39 km2 by 2030, representing a 38.30% increase from 2020. Conversely, under the farmland protection scenario, construction land increased to 237.66 km2, a 4.89% rise from 2020. However, in the ecological priority development scenario, the construction land area expanded to 253.59 km2, a 10.13% increase from 2020. Compared to 2020, the ESV losses in the inertia development and farmland protection scenarios were USD 4497.71 and USD 1072.23, respectively, by 2030. Conversely, the ESV under the ecological protection scenario increased by USD 2749.09, emphasizing the importance of prioritizing ecological protection in Ezhou City’s development. This study may provide new clues for the formulation of regional strategies for sustainable land use and ecosystem restoration.

Urban Development Scenario Simulation and Model Research Based on System Dynamics from the Perspective of Effect and Efficiency

Urban Development Scenario Simulation and Model Research Based on System Dynamics from the Perspective of Effect and Efficiency

Problems and Prospects for the Development of Cluster Structuring in the Economy of Kazakhstan’s Agricultural Sector: Theory and Practice

This article discusses the issues of cluster policy formation in the Republic of Kazakhstan on the basis of studying the experience of leading countries. The research aim is to find new effective tools and institutions for the development of the cluster structuring of the agro-industrial complex economy of Kazakhstan. Cluster policy in the field of supporting regional clusters starts with the identification of already existing clusters in the region, because by viewing the regional economy through the prism of various local industries and innovative enterprises, regional authorities can identify measures of effective impact and support for their clusters. This research examines the possibilities of using clusters and cluster policy as one of the most important components of the policy for the development and support of small and medium-sized enterprises in Kazakhstan’s agro-industrial complex. The research methodology includes qualitative and quantitative data analysis methods, comparative analysis, and mathematical processing (the Pearson correlation coefficient), as well as the modeling of possible development scenarios. The obtained results show that there are significant opportunities for a wider involvement of small and medium-sized enterprises in the formation of cluster structures of the agro-industrial sector through joint efforts by the government and regional centers in the conditions of innovative development of the country’s economy.

Spatiotemporal Dynamics and Scenario Simulation of Regional Green Spaces in a Rapidly Urbanizing Type I Large City: A Case Study of Changzhou, China

The rapid urbanization observed in major Chinese cities has resulted in the degradation of both urban and rural environments. In response to this challenge, the concept of regional green spaces has emerged as an innovative approach to coordinate and manage green space resources across urban and rural areas. This study focuses on conducting a comprehensive analysis of the evolution, driving factors, and future scenarios of regional green spaces in Changzhou, which serves as a representative Type I large city in China. To accomplish this analysis, Landsat satellite images from 1992, 2002, 2012, and 2022 were utilized. Various methodologies, including landscape pattern indices for quantitative evaluation, the CLUE-S model, logistic regression for qualitative evaluation, and the Markov–FLUS model, were employed. The findings indicate a continuous decline in the area of regional green spaces in Changzhou, decreasing from 248.23 km2 in 1992 to 204.46 km2 in 2022. Landscape pattern analysis reveals an increase in fragmentation, complexity, irregularity, and human interference within these green spaces. Logistic regression analysis identifies key driving factors influencing regional green spaces, including elevation, urban population, and proximity to water bodies and transportation. The scenario simulations provide valuable insights into potential future trends of regional green spaces. According to the economic priority scenario, a modest increase in regional green spaces is anticipated, while the ecological priority scenario indicates substantial growth. Conversely, the inertial development scenario predicts a continued decline in regional green spaces. This research emphasizes the significance of achieving a harmonious coexistence between economic progress and environmental preservation. It emphasizes the necessity of optimizing the arrangement of green areas within a region while fostering public engagement in the conservation of these spaces. The findings contribute to the protection and sustainable development of the urban environment in the Yangtze River Delta region.

Simulation and Prediction of Land Use Change and Carbon Emission under Multiple Development Scenarios at the City Level: A Case Study of Xi’an, China

Studying urban land use and its impact on carbon emissions is crucial for achieving China’s dual carbon goals. This research utilized the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) scenarios 126, 245, and 585 from the Sixth International Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), along with a coupled System Dynamics (SD) and Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model and a carbon emission coefficient method to simulate and predict Xi’an’s land use carbon emissions from 2020 to 2040. The results indicate the following: (1) Cultivated and forest lands are the predominant land use types in Xi’an, with cultivated and grassland areas projected to decline under all three SSP scenarios by 2040. The most significant expansion of construction land, primarily at the expense of farmland, is projected under the SSP585 scenario, with an increase of 515.92 km2 by 2040. (2) Land use carbon emissions increased from 414.15 × 104 t in 2000 to 2376.10 × 104 t in 2020, with construction land being the primary source of emissions and forest land serving as the main carbon sink. However, the carbon sink capacity remained low at only 21.38 × 104 t in 2020. (3) Carbon emissions are expected to continue increasing under all scenarios through 2030 and 2040, though at a decreasing rate. The SSP126 scenario predicts the lowest emissions, reaching 9186.00 × 104 t by 2040, while SSP585 predicts the highest at 14,935.00 × 104 t. The findings of this study provide theoretical support for future low-carbon and high-quality urban development strategies.

Application of Feature, Event, and Process Methods to Leakage Scenario Development for Offshore CO2 Geological Storage

Application of Feature, Event, and Process Methods to Leakage Scenario Development for Offshore CO2 Geological Storage

Multi-scenario analysis and optimization strategy of ecological security pattern in the Weihe river basin

For many years, the Weihe River Basin (WRB) has struggled to achieve a balance between ecological protection and economic growth. Constructing an Ecological Security Pattern (ESP) is extremely important for ensuring ecological security (ES). This study employed a coupling of multi-objective programming (MOP) and the patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) model to project land use change (LUCC) in 2040 across three scenarios. Leveraging circuit theory, we generated ecological corridors and identified key ecological nodes, enabling a comparative analysis of ESPs within the WRB. The main results showed that: (1) The Ecological Protection (EP) scenario showed the highest proportions of forestland, grassland, and water, indicating an optimal ecological environment. Conversely, the Economic Development (ED) scenario features the greatest proportion of construction land, particularly evident in the rapid urban expansion. The Natural Development (ND) scenario exhibits a more balanced change, aligning closely with historical trends. (2) The ecological source areas in the EP scenario is 13,856.70 km2, with the largest and most intact patch area. The ecological source patches that have been identified in the ED scenario exhibit fragmentation and dispersion, encompassing a total area of 8018.82 km2. The ecological source areas in the ND scenario is most similar to the actual situation in 2020, encompassing 8474.99 km2. (3) The EP scenario demonstrates minimal landscape fragmentation. The ED scenario presents a more intricate corridor pattern, hindering species and energy flow efficiency. The ND scenario is more similar to the actual distribution in 2020. Protecting and restoring key ecological nodes, and ensuring the integrity and connectivity of ecological sources are crucial for ESP optimization in various scenarios. Combining all results, we categorize the WRB's spatial pattern into "three zones, three belts, and one center" and offer strategic suggestions for ecological preservation, promoting sustainable local ecological and socioeconomic development.

Priority areas for the development of the health technology assessment system in Ukraine: survey results

The purpose of the study is to analyze the expert opinion on the priority areas of development of the HTA in Ukraine, taking into account the existing condition, problems and possible prospects for effective development. Materials and methods. The expert survey (online questionnaire) included the preparation of a special questionnaire, targeted selection of experts based on their competence in the field of HTA. Three groups of respondents took part in the survey, including 13 HTA developers, 32 users, and 31 informed persons to ensure the representativeness of the survey results. The following methods were used to process and interpret the results: scientific generalization, mathematical and statistical, analytical, and graphical. Results of the study. Based on the results of the expert survey, the role and place of the HTA in the health care system was determined. Experts see the main purpose of the HTA as preparing the necessary information of the relevant level of evidence for decision-making on the selection of optimal MTs (in particular, for budget procurement, inclusion in regulatory lists for price regulation and reimbursement). The respondents' opinions on the participation of different socio-professional groups in the implementation of the HTA and the use of its results were studied. Thus, according to the results of the survey, HTA experts and scientists can carry out the assessment, and in some cases (mini-HTA, hospital HTA for the formation of local formularies and protocols) – specialists of medical institutions. According to the respondents, it is advisable to expand the use of HTA results for decision-making at the national, regional and local levels. According to the survey, the priority areas for the development of HTA are the creation of a professional environment, adequate logistical and informational support, improvement of legislation, creation of an optimal institutional structure, harmonization of HTA methodology and development of international cooperation. Conclusions. The expert survey allowed us to determine the most likely scenario for the further development of HTA in Ukraine. According to the majority of respondents, the main efforts are currently focused on capacity building, formation of a professional environment, active use of evidence, and infrastructure development.

Development of emission reduction management scenario, techno-economic and environmental assessment at Iranian petrochemical companies

Development of emission reduction management scenario, techno-economic and environmental assessment at Iranian petrochemical companies

The development of a bilayer absorption scenario of CsPbI3/Cs2SnI6 PSCs for enhanced efficiency and stability

The introduction of heterojunction structures in perovskite solar cells (PSCs) can lead to substantial enhancements in power conversion efficiency (PCE) and stability. Using the SCAPS-1D software, we have theoretically investigated the performance potential of CsPbI3/Cs2SnI6 heterojunction PSCs. The purpose of incorporating a thin layer of Cs2SnI6 perovskite onto the CsPbI3 layer is to enhance the stability of the device through the formation of a protective barrier that prevents the continuous degradation of CsPbI3. The device's overall efficiency was found to be greatly enhanced by meticulously optimizing the acceptor concentration (NA), defect density (Nt), and absorber thickness of CsPbI3. In addition, the influence of various physical parameters such as the operating temperature, the work function of the metal rear contact, and series and shunt resistance on the photovoltaic performance of the device is comprehensively examined. With the systematic optimization of these parameters, the device exhibited improved performance and attained an outstanding PCE of 20.86 %, an open circuit voltage (VOC) of 1.19 V, a fill factor (FF) of 81.77%, and a current density voltage (JSC) of 21.32 mA/cm2. We think that our work will provide theoretical guidance in the advancement of heterojunction devices with much improved efficiency and stability.

Modelling Multi-Scenario Ecological Network Patterns and Dynamic Spatial Conservation Priorities in Mining Areas

Mining activities have significantly altered the land use patterns of mining areas, exacerbated the degree of landscape fragmentation, and thereby led to the loss of biodiversity. Ecological networks have been recognized as an essential component for enhancing habitat connectivity and protecting biodiversity. However, existing studies lack dynamic analysis at the landscape scale under multiple future scenarios for mining areas, which is adverse to the identification of ecological conservation regions. This study used the MOP-PLUS (multi-objective optimization problem and patch-level land use simulation) model to simulate the land use patterns in the balance of ecology and economy (EEB) scenario and ecological development priority (EDP) scenario for the Shendong coal base. Then, climate change and land use patterns were integrated into ecosystem models to analyze the dynamic changes in the ecological networks. Finally, the conservation priorities were constructed, and dynamic conservation hotspots were identified using landscape mapping methods. The following results were obtained: (1) From 2000 to 2020, large grassland areas were replaced by mining areas, while cultivated land was replenished. By 2030, the forest and grassland areas (967.00 km2, 8989.70 km2) will reach their peaks and the coal mine area (356.15 km2) will reach its nadir in the EDP scenario. (2) The fragmentation of ecological sources intensified (MPS decreased from 19.81 km2 to 18.68 km2) and ecological connectivity declined (in particular, α decreased by 6.58%) from 2000 to 2020. In 2030, the connectivity in the EDP scenario will increase, while the connectivity in the EEB scenario will be close to that of 2020. (3) The central and southeastern parts of the Shendong coal base have higher conservation priorities, which urgently need to be strengthened. This study offers guidance on addressing the challenges of habitat and biodiversity conservation in mining areas.

Multi-Scenario Research on the Coupled and Coordinated Development of the Economic–Energy–Environmental (3E) System under the Reconstruction of the Power System—New Exploration Based on the “Dual Triangle” Theory

Under the background of building a new-type power system, as the core of the energy system, the restructuring of the power system will inevitably have a linked impact on the coordinated development of the economy–energy–environment system. A “Dual Triangle” theoretical framework consisting of the “Energy Impossibility Triangle” and “Sustainable Development Triangle” was constructed in this paper. By combining historical statistical analysis with scenario predictive analysis, the historical characteristics of the “Dual Triangle” and future trends under different scenarios were analyzed, and the coupled interaction relationship of the “Dual Triangle” was also studied. Conclusions were as follows: The energy system gradually inclined towards economy and cleanliness from 2010 to 2022, and the operation status of the “Dual Triangle” was stable. A positive coupling relationship within the “Dual Triangle” in vigorously promoting renewable energy scenarios is close, which can be regarded as the preferred path for the reconstruction of the power system. The security and low-carbon phased development scenario is a development model that dynamically mitigates the challenges of the “Energy Impossibility Triangle”. Security has become the core contradiction of the “Energy Impossibility Triangle”. This paper conducts an integrated and innovative application of the “Dual Triangle” theory and provides a case basis for how to achieve the coupled interaction of the “Dual Triangle”.

To explore the effectiveness of various ecological security pattern construction methods in many growth situations in the future: A case study of the West Liaohe River Basin in Inner Mongolia

The Ecological Security Pattern (ESP) has emerged as a prominent area of focus in global ecosystem research, offering valuable scientific insights for reconciling ecological preservation with economic progress. Understanding the differences among different approaches to constructing ESP serves as a fundamental step in ensuring its efficacy. However, there has been a scarcity of studies that quantitatively assess the disparities in the effectiveness of various ESP construction methods. This study focuses on the West Liaohe River Basin as its research subject. Leveraging remote sensing data alongside county-level statistical information, the study employs three distinct ecological source identification methodologies to establish ESP frameworks. Subsequently, it analyzes the discrepancies in ecological protection outcomes across different ESP construction methods under varying future development scenarios. The findings reveal that the ESP centered around ecosystem services emerges as particularly suited for diverse development scenarios, consistently yielding optimal ecological protection outcomes. Our research not only furnishes a theoretical foundation and practical guidance for ESP development in the West Liaohe River Basin but also offers methodological insights transferrable to other regions.