Scenario Planning Method Research Articles

A Classification and Interpretation of Methodological Approaches to Pursue Natural Capital Valuation in Forest Research

This paper reviews natural capital (NC) valuation approaches in the context of woodland, forest, and riparian ecosystems, emphasising the need for participatory methods to take priority over neoclassical economics approaches. Focusing on research carried out in Scotland, the study analyses findings according to a classification of natural capital initiatives that we have developed, building on ideas proposed by the UK ENCA initiative, a guideline proposed to help researchers and practitioners understand NC and take it into account in valuation, decision-making and policy. We have found that landscape-scale initiatives that address the relationships between people and place to inform value and decision-making beyond the economic (monetary) benefits generated by ecosystem services (ES) are becoming popular. For instance, recent methods employed to capture stakeholders’ non-utilitarian preferences include the use of participatory GIS mapping, scenario planning, and other participatory methods to identify, explore and quantify less tangible cultural ecosystem services (CES). The review shows that many studies provide information relevant to the formulation of a place-based NC approach, working towards the integration of contextual and relational values into land management decisions to help formulate management strategies that maximise ES delivery. Conversely, we have not found evidence of the integration of shared values arising from an eco-centric perspective of nature valuation into the more classical, instrumental value lens. Such an approach would help inform broader, overarching aspects of woodland and forest management that may foster more effective conservation and help to manage conflicts.

Synergistic Development Pathways for National Parks and Local Regions: Shared Socioeconomic Pathway Scenario Forecasting and Optimization

National parks play a crucial role in protecting ecosystems and biodiversity while facing challenges in balancing nature conservation and economic development. However, because of the difficulty in the unified simulation of natural protection functions and regional socioeconomic development, there is a lack of integrated prediction research on the comprehensive development pathways of national parks and their surrounding areas. This study adopts the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) framework that links climate change research with socioeconomic development paths, taking China’s first national park—Sanjiangyuan National Park—region as an example, to conduct research on the synergistic development path of regional socioeconomic development and national parks. The model design includes five typical paths to cover a wide range of socioeconomic development possibilities. These paths are based on different assumptions, including factors such as population growth, economic development, energy use, technological progress, and policy choices. By applying scenario planning methods, optimal development pathways are identified based on environmental, economic, and social priorities. The results show that GDP growth is fastest under the sustainable development and fossil fuel development pathways. By 2050, the population difference under different pathways will approach 100,000, and the GDP gap will be close to CNY 200 billion. This study provides valuable insights for the planning, decision-making, and management of Sanjiangyuan and similar national parks and their surrounding areas, contributing to the promotion of sustainable ecological and economic development of national parks and their regions.

How do hotels test their strategies? An approach from the strategic planning process

ABSTRACT This study examines how managers test strategies, focusing on their understanding of the strategic planning process, and aims to develop a framework for integrating cutting-edge technologies in strategy testing. We used elite interviews with top hotel managers in Turkey and a hermeneutic approach to establish this framework. Results indicate that managers have limited knowledge of strategy testing, which is not yet recognized as a distinct phase in strategy development. Scenario planning and AI-driven methods are only minimally adopted in the industry. We introduced a “techno-human” model that integrates AI and human-oriented decision-making for strategy testing. Our paper contributes significantly by analysing top managers’ use of testing methods in strategic management and highlighting an overlooked area in the literature.

Optimisation of Cross-Border Project Management In Higher Education Institutions in the Context of the Impact of Global Economic Crises

In today's globalized and interconnected world, the impact of global crises poses increasing risks to the economic situation of each country in particular. The study of cross-border cooperation in the context of current crisis processes allows us to identify new risks and ways to minimize them. The purpose of the study is to analyze ways to optimize the management of cross-border projects in the context of the impact of global economic crises. Scenario planning, SWOT analysis, statistical and mathematical research methods are used in the course of the study. The article discusses the peculiarities of managing cross-border projects on the example of the Precarpathian National University in the context of the impact of global economic crises. Using the example of the university, the author analyzes the implementation of cross-border projects for the period of 2020-2022, which occurred during two crises. The first global economic crisis is caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and the second regional crisis is caused by the war in Ukraine. The risks faced by the grantee in implementing international programs are identified. The study analyzed four different cross-border projects, which made it possible to assess all the risks in more detail and identify existing problems. For a detailed analysis, the medium-sized PrePOD project was selected, which operated from 2020 to 2022 and received an average amount of funding. The strengths and weaknesses of cross-border cooperation were assessed. The study pays special attention to the role of the Precarpathian National University, emphasizing the need for financial risk management, effective communication, compliance with the law, and adaptation of national legislation to European standards. The paper formulates strategies for improving the management of cross-border projects in the context of global crises, and proposes to create research centers to improve the management of grant activities. It has been determined that flexibility and communication are the international factors that can reduce the impact of crisis processes on the implementation of international cooperation.

Pathological Evaluation of Using Scenario Planning in Academic Theses Focusing on Tourism-Related Subjects

ABSTRACT Given the increasing number of studies using the scenario planning (SP) approach, particularly in the field of tourism, the aim of the present study is to evaluate the challenges and deficiencies in theses that have employed Futures Studies (FS) using the SP method in the context of tourism, and then categorize these challenges into groups that describe them. Twenty-three in-depth interviews were carried out with university graduates, as well as university professors. Data analysis was performed using MAXQDA software. The results show the most important challenges of using this method include 1) inadequate knowledge of the students about FS research methods, 2) not knowing the nature of uncertainties, especially in the tourism context, 3) research topics being inconsistent with the needs of the Iranian tourism sector, and 4) the lack of facilities to share FS knowledge between the universities that are active in tourism area in Iran. Recommendations are provided to address these challenges.

Exploration of the Scenario Planning Path of the Airport New Area of Small and Medium-sized Airports: A Case of Jincheng Airport New District

With the development of Chinese science and technology economy, as a new form of spatial economic organization, the planning and construction of the Airport New Area is increasingly becoming a focus of attention. The actual development of the Airport New Area is affected by the development of the city. Therefore, the scenario planning method, as an effective tool to deal with future uncertainties. This article uses scenario planning methods, taking Jincheng Airport New Area as an example, through five steps including background analysis, factor identification, case reference, scenario simulation, and program evaluation, to obtain the best development plan for Jincheng Airport New Area, hoping to provide planners with more targeted and flexible response measures in different scenarios.

Gig-economy as a safety gradient for sustainable development of the mining industry

Purpose. To evaluate causality of expanding the gig-economic space and the socioeconomic and ecological security of Ukraines mining industry in the context of the changing technological structures caused by the emergence of a new security structural and functional post Covid-19 component. To propose typical scenarios for sustainable development of the gig-economy in the context of improving security policy of Ukraines mining industry. Methodology. To achieve this goal, a scenario planning, Delphi, SMART, SWOT analysis and mathematical research methods econometric and gradient analysis, were used to determine the scalar values and directions of extreme innovative changes in the gig economy in the context of sustainable development of mining industry in Ukraine. The calculations were carried out using the SPSS Data Analysis Software. Findings. The work systematically analyzes key safety indicators of scientific-technological progress for sustainable development of the mining industry and establishes a one-to-one relationship between existing socio-economic phenomena and gig-economic processes, which in recent years have been asymmetrically activated under the influence of the post Covid-2019. The security specifics of tactical and strategic management of the gig-economy are outlined. Originality. A methodological approach to the quantitative and qualitative determination of the safety gradients of the development of the mining industry enables the consideration of transformational Post-Covid consequences, as well as diversifies tactical and strategic management. In particular, it is proposed to use an innovative digital platform CENSIE Central European Network for Sustainable and Innovative Economy. Practical value. A proposed approach would facilitate to improve the efficiency of strategic and tactical management of personnel policy of the mining industry in the context of the formation of a gig-economy, as well as synchronize time and space parameters, increasing the targeting of management decisions. It was proposed to introduce a special remote platform MiningFreelance to provide freelance services to households, family farms and other manufacturers which will be protected by the Blockchain registry based on existing ProZorro programs. At the same time, Blockchain technologies will increase the role of trade unions, which will be able to unite gig workers into a single system and control working conditions, taking on certain social obligations.

Introducing Stories Into Downward Counterfactual Analysis: Examples From a Potential Mediterranean Disaster

How to recognise potential disasters is a question at the centre of risk analysis. Over-reliance on an incomplete, often epistemologically-biased, historical record, and a focus on quantified and quantifiable risks, have contributed to unanticipated disasters dominating both casualties and financial losses in the first part of the 21st century. Here we present the findings of an online workshop implementing a new scenario-planning method, called downward counterfactual analysis, which is designed to expand the range of risks considered. Interdisciplinary groups of disaster researchers constructed downward counterfactuals for a present-day version of the 365CE Cretan earthquake and tsunami, imagining how these events might have been worse. The resulting counterfactuals have trans-national, long-term impacts, particularly in terms of economic losses, and connect risks previously identified in separate sectors. Most counterfactuals involved socio-political factors, rather than intrinsic components of the hazard, consistent with the idea that there are “no natural disasters”. The prevalence of cascading counterfactuals in our workshop suggests that further work is required to give the appropriate weight to pre-existing economic and social conditions in scenario-planning methods, such as downward counterfactual analysis, which focus on the occurrence of a hazard as the temporal starting point for a disaster. Both proposed counterfactuals and their justifications reflect a bias towards contemporary issues and recent historical disasters. We suggest that interdisciplinary groups can expand the range of imagined risks. However, the setup used here would be improved by including local stakeholders. Qualitative forms of downward counterfactual analysis have potential applications for community engagement and education, as well as for risk analysis.

Toward a Diagnostic Tool for Organizational Ethical Culture With Futures Thinking and Scenario Planning

The literature on futures studies scarcely mentions the use of scenario planning in organizational ethics. By gathering and analyzing diverse macro (contextual) and micro (transactional) points of view, here called “partial truths,” this article investigates how scenario planning could be used as a complementary tool to diagnose disruptions that may impact an organization's ethical culture. We conducted futures thinking interviews with 16 managers in a multinational European energy company and its South American subsidiary, and followed up the research with a scenario planning intervention with managers participating in an ethics forum in the Basque Country. Through case studies, the research qualitatively describes the processes by which top management would utilize scenario planning methods to address business ethics in organizational dynamics. The combined study led to a framework of pragmatic ethics and systems thinking that broadens our understanding of the main themes that lead to disruptions that managers believed would impact ethical culture. This analysis gives further insight into the potential use of scenarios to support corporations to engage in ethical deliberation and thereby enable ethical reinterpretation of company policies, strategies, and initiatives. We revealed fundamental biases toward the acceptance of scenario planning methods for business ethics in companies, dependent upon corporate values and goals, ethical concerns, cultural characteristics, and financial and time constraints. The reflections extracted from interviews and ethnographic research resulted in a template showing why some businesses would be open to scenario planning for corporate ethical culture, while others would be reluctant to engage in the activity.

Predicting African trade considering uncertainty by scenario planning

PurposeThis study predicts the growth of Africa's international trade from 2011 to 2040 by accounting for the uncertainties in the continent.Design/methodology/approachThis study applies a scenario planning method (SPM) to develop multiple future scenarios considering uncertainties inherent in African socio-economies related to the success or failure of economic and industrial policies (EIPs) and economic corridor development policies (ECDPs). Subsequently, based on these future scenarios, the growth of African international trade from 2011 to 2040 is predicted using the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model.FindingsThe predictions reveal that if the EIPs and the ECDPs are successfully implemented, Africa, as a whole, will experience a significant increase in trade, estimated at US$ 1,905 billion and US$ 1,599 billion for exports and imports, respectively, compared to the scenario in which they fail. However, the effects vary greatly by country or region and industrial sector. The results also show that African intra-regional trade is rapidly expanding and is the second-largest after trade with Europe followed by other continents.Originality/valueSPM, which allows us to reflect the uncertainties affecting African international trade prediction, is applied to build the future scenarios. The study comprehensively predicts African future international trade by setting a wide range of exogenous variables and parameters (input conditions for the GTAP model) related to EIPs and ECDPs.

Managing uncertainties for effective social network: Strategic analysis of media literacy with Scenario Planning Method

Abstract Purpose: This research was conducted to identify future scenarios in the field of media literacy and explore alternative futures in this field in Iran. Research methodology: The method of this research was scenario planning or scenario design with an exploratory futuristic approach. In this method, in several steps from identifying the factors affecting the future of media literacy to exploring future uncertainties, creating the logic of scenarios, describing the narrative of scenarios, identifying and strategically analyzing opportunities and threats related to each scenario, and finally identifying strategies for the future Includes with each scenario. Results: In this study, 30 factors affecting the future were identified and analyzed perceptually/cognitively. The output of the research is to present four possible future scenarios of media literacy with the letters of Paradise Lost, Titanic, Leviathan, and The Dark Knight, each of which is described in the following article. Limitations: Each of the strategies is derived from the matrix analysis of opportunities and threats and their interaction. Contribution: The present study will theoretically contribute to the academic and theoretical richness as well as promote the culture and literature of futurism in the field of communication sciences and especially in the field of media literacy. It has operational importance and necessity.

Midwifery Practice and Education in Antwerp: Forecasting Its Future With Scenario Planning.

Midwifery across the world is facing changes and uncertainties. By recognizing plausible future options, a contemporary and strategic scope of midwifery practice and education can be established. The city of Antwerp, Belgium, was the indicative case for this study. Key drivers were identified to serve as input for scenarios. Structuration theory and intuitive logics scenario planning methods were used to structure contextual midwifery scenarios. Six certain and six uncertain variables were identified. A two-dimensional framework showed these factors: (a) maternity care services and organization and (b) the society of child-bearing women and their families. Three scenarios described the plausible future of midwifery: (a) midwife-led care monitoring maternal health needs, (b) midwife-led holistic care, and (c) midwife/general practitioner-led integrated maternity care. All of the scenarios show the direction of change with a strategic focus, the importance of midwifery authenticity, and digital adaptability in maternity services. Also, the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic cannot be ignored in future midwifery. [J Contin Educ Nurs. 2022;53(1):21-29.].

Local 5G services on campus premises: scenarios for a make 5G or buy 5G decision

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to build possible future scenarios for indoor connectivity in a venue such as a university campus and build alternative value network configurations (VNCs) defining different local network deployment options, focused on the Finnish telecom market. Design/methodology/approach In this paper, Schoemaker’s scenario planning method (Schoemaker, 1995) is used to construct future scenarios and the VNC method of Casey et al. (2010) is used to build alternative VNCs. The paper studies the Aalto University campus network for current end-user data usage demand and the existing technology used in meeting the end-user needs and forecasts the demand for the next five years to understand the need for 5G. Findings This research concludes that with the provision of local spectrum licenses, there is an opportunity for venue owners to take the role of 5G local operator on the venue premises. Furthermore, it enables venue owners to collaborate with the incumbent mobile network operators (MNOs) in a neutral host model and provide venue-specific connectivity services. Research limitations/implications A detailed economic assessment for the network deployment in the campus is considered for future study. Originality/value Considering the provision for local spectrum licenses, this paper has taken a unique attempt in identifying the future scenarios for local 5G network operations. It provides a strategic direction for the venue owners in adopting 5G technology and whether to make 5G or buy 5G from MNOs.

A new approach based on scenario planning and prediction methods for the estimation of gasoil consumption

Due to the increase in Iran’s gasoil consumption, it is necessary to present an appropriate model for predicting it. This can help the policy-makers to properly manage the consumption and make effective decisions. In this research, different approaches are represented and compared for estimation of Iran’s gasoil consumption. Prediction models are compared with a scenario planning method. Predictive methods focus on the most likely event and lead to a point estimate of the future, while scenario planning considers uncertainties and possible future occurrences. A comparison is made among multiple linear regression (MLR) as a linear method, artificial neural network (ANN) as a nonlinear method, and scenario planning as a method for exploring uncertainty. The prediction methods (MLR and ANN) are quantitative approaches which use historical data in developing the models, while the presented scenario planning method is a qualitative–quantitative approach. The proposed scenario planning is based on cross-impact and visualization methods. By these methods, and according to the country’s status in gasoil production and consumption, four scenarios are developed for Iran’s 2025 vision: polluted environment, reduction of oil reserves, reduction of fuel subsidies, and culturalization. The results show that the gasoil consumption growth in 2025 for these scenarios is 46%, 17.8%, − 5.4%, and 3.4%, respectively, while these changes for MLR and ANN methods are 20.5%, and 24%, respectively. Moreover, the presented approach indicates that the “polluted environment” and “reduction of oil reserves” are the most likely scenarios and are much more similar to those predicted by MLR and ANN methods.

Optimal design and planning of biodiesel supply chain network: a scenario-based robust optimization approach

Effective design of biodiesel supply chain network can reduce many of its high production costs. There are various uncertain parameters in real world that if ignored may greatly affect the optimal configuration of the designed biodiesel supply chain. Scenario planning is a powerful tool which can help the decision makers for long-term planning under uncertainties. Therefore, in this paper, a scenario-based robust optimization model is presented for designing the biodiesel supply chain networks under uncertainties. Some of the parameters including demand, supply, costs, and environmental impacts have uncertain nature. For the first time, in this study, the values of these uncertain parameters are estimated by a proposed scenario-planning method. The presented scenario-planning approach is based on cross-impact analysis and visualization methods. Non-edible sources such as Jatropha, Norouzak, and waste cooking oil are considered as raw materials of biodiesel production, and for the first time Norouzak has been used as one of the sources in designing biodiesel supply chain. In addition, an environmental constraint is considered and the environmental impacts of all processes are obtained by Eco-indicator 99 method. The presented model can determine the number, location, and capacity of the facilities. The proposed model is implemented in a real case study in Iran for a 7-year planning horizon. The results show the effectiveness of the presented approach in designing the biodiesel supply chain networks under uncertainties.

Managing the survivor syndrome as scenario planning methodology … and it matters!

PurposeThe importance of foresight is discussed in relation to why traditional scenario planning methodology is problematic at achieving it. The “survivor syndrome” is borrowed from the human resources literature and presented as a metaphor for foresight to illustrate how better “scenarios” can be achieved by understanding the syndrome better. A practice perspective is given on the use of a seven-theme framework as a method of interviewing survivors. The paper aims to discuss this issue.Design/methodology/approachThe paper draws from an empirical research that took place during the 2008 global financial crisis to illustrate the richness of the insights that would otherwise not be obtainable through scenario planning methods that do not involve “survivors.” In that research, semi-structured interviews were employed with key personnel at multiple levels of one private and one public organization that had undergone a redundancy process at the time of the crisis to explore its effect on the remaining workforce.FindingsThe “survivor syndrome” itself would be minimized if managers consider the feelings of survivors with more open communication. Survivors in private firms were found generally to experience anxiety, but are more likely to remain more motivated, than their counterparts in the public sector. These detailed insights create more accurate “scenarios” in scenario planning exercises.Originality/valueOrganizational performance can be better enhanced if the survivor syndrome can be better managed. In turn, scenario planning, as a form of organizational foresight, is better practiced through managing the survivor syndrome. Scenario planning methodology has proliferated well in the human resource management literature.

EU Break-Up? Mapping Plausible Pathways into Alternative Futures

Following Brexit, the rise of populist Eurosceptics across the EU, Central Eastern Europe's flirtation with 'illiberal democracy' and the sovereign debt crisis, which essentially still remains unresolved ten years after it started, even some of the EU’s most enthusiastic supporters are today wondering whether the EU could actually break apart. In the paper, I propose the scenario-planning method to address this question and to think about the future of the EU in a structured way. While the method is already well established in the study of socio-technical systems, the paper tests its transferability to the political economy of the EU. Along two drivers, the material struggle to tame globalization and the ideational struggle to fill the void that is resulting from the deconstruction of neoliberalism, the paper maps four plausible pathways into alternative futures. I conclude with a discussion of the potential of scenario-planning to improve the transfer of knowledge from academia into practice.

Trends that have influenced the Swedish radiography profession over the last four decades

IntroductionThe expansion of the radiography profession in recent decades has widened the scope of radiographic practice. This has raised questions about which trends have had an impact on the profession over the years. The study aim was to explore trends that have influenced the radiography profession over the last four decades. MethodsA qualitative design was used. Eleven focus group interviews inspired by the Scenario Planning Method were conducted at 11 diagnostic radiology departments in public hospitals in Sweden. The target group consisted of 48 registered radiographers. To analyse the data, qualitative content analysis was used. ResultsThematic data analysis revealed three broad categories; technological development and radiation doses, current status of the radiography profession and specialisation leading to expert knowledge. Each category derived from two or three sub-categories. ConclusionThe results demonstrate significant trends of influences on the radiography profession in Sweden over the last four decades. New methods and technology and control of radiation doses have had a favourable effect on the development of the radiography profession. Nevertheless, current status such as shortage of radiographers has had an adverse way. Specialisation leading to expert knowledge has an influence on career advancement and a specialist education regulated by the law, might be a prerequisite for the development of the radiography profession.

Plausible scenarios for the radiography profession in Sweden in 2025

IntroductionRadiography is a healthcare speciality with many technical challenges. Advances in engineering and information technology applications may continue to drive and be driven by radiographers. The world of diagnostic imaging is changing rapidly and radiographers must be proactive in order to survive. To ensure sustainable development, organisations have to identify future opportunities and threats in a timely manner and incorporate them into their strategic planning. Hence, the aim of this study was to analyse and describe plausible scenarios for the radiography profession in 2025. MethodThe study has a qualitative design with an inductive approach based on focus group interviews. The interviews were inspired by the Scenario-Planning method. ResultsOf the seven trends identified in a previous study, the radiographers considered two as the most uncertain scenarios that would have the greatest impact on the profession should they occur. These trends, labelled “Access to career advancement” and “A sufficient number of radiographers”, were inserted into the scenario cross. The resulting four plausible future scenarios were: The happy radiographer, the specialist radiographer, the dying profession and the assembly line. ConclusionIt is suggested that “The dying profession” scenario could probably be turned in the opposite direction by facilitating career development opportunities for radiographers within the profession. Changing the direction would probably lead to a profession composed of “happy radiographers” who are specialists, proud of their profession and competent to carry out advanced tasks, in contrast to being solely occupied by “the assembly line”.

Avaliação do custo sistêmico total da geração de energia eólica em face da substituição das fontes hidrelétrica e termoelétrica considerando as externalidades socioeconômicas e ambientais

Resumo O mercado de geração de energia está em contínua expansão no Brasil. Este mercado é formado por diferentes fontes de geração de energia, as quais acarretam diferentes impactos socioeconômicos e ambientais atrelados às suas operações. Estes impactos geram externalidades na forma de dano para a sociedade e a compensação destes não é de consenso comum entre os atores envolvidos. Neste sentido, o presente artigo busca, com a aplicação do método do pensamento sistêmico, criar um modelo computacional de dinâmica de sistemas que possibilite a avaliação do custo sistêmico total, considerando as externalidades, da geração de energia. Para este fim, foi aplicada uma adaptação do método do PSPC – Pensamento Sistêmico e Planejamento por Cenários. Na primeira fase, gerou-se um entendimento maior sobre a temática. Em seguida, realizou-se a construção do modelo computacional e, por fim, o modelo foi aplicado a três usinas reais a fim de se fazer uma avaliação da inserção da energia eólica em face da substituição das fontes hidroelétrica e termoelétrica a carvão. Os resultados obtidos apresentaram uma evolução no entendimento na comparação do real custo da energia para a sociedade, devido ao aprendizado proporcionado pela utilização do pensamento sistêmico em conjunto com a modelagem dinâmica de sistemas. Os dados encontrados também apontaram para uma mudança nas decisões sobre a matriz energética, se adotado um custo sistêmico para avaliação de novos projetos.