Transformation Scenarios Research Articles

Causes of ecosystem transformations variability in lakes of the european part of Russia and Western Siberia (diatom analysis)

On the basis of author's graphical analysis method, the typification of lake ecosystems transformation scenarios depending on the size of lakes was carried out. It was confirmed that the type of transformation depends not only on size of the lake, but also on the landscape and climatic region in which it is located. The distinctive features of lake ecosystems transformation types in the European part of Russia and in Western Siberia were analyzed and compared.

Scenarios of Nonequilibrium Phase Transformations in Alloys Depending on the Temperature and Intensity of Plastic Deformation

Based on analyzing experimental data and existing theoretical approaches, this study has formulated concepts of regular change in scenarios of phase transformations developing under severe plastic deformation. Depending on the temperature and deformation conditions, the dissipation of delivered energy can be realized by various routes (dislocation glide and climb, dynamic recrystallization, amorphization, and redistribution of alloy components), giving rise to a diversity of observed phase and structural states. A diagram of nonequilibrium states of alloy as a function of conditions of severe plastic deformation has been proposed. The applicability of the presented concepts has been demonstrated for a wide range of alloys and compounds.

Magnetic field effect on the chiral magnetism of noncentrosymmetric UPtGe: Experiment and theory

The effect of differently oriented magnetic field on chiral incommensurate helimagnet UPtGe is studied both experimentally and theoretically. The magnetization measurements up to the field above the saturation have revealed an isotropic magnetic response below 20 T and a remarkable nonmonotonic anisotropy in high fields. Moreover, the two principally different phase transitions from the noncollinear incommensurate to the field-induced ferromagnetic state have been observed. These properties are successfully explained by density-functional theory calculations taking into account the noncollinearity of the magnetic structures, arbitrary directed magnetic field, and relativistic effects. We also estimate the strength of different competing magnetic interactions and discuss possible scenarios of the field-induced phase transformations.

Priority-based mode transformation algorithm in a multisystem-based virtual passive optical network

With the development of passive optical network, different standards will occur in the same network topology. Virtualization technology is a preferable solution for multi-standard coexistence. In this paper, priority-based mode transformation algorithm is proposed for cross-standard bandwidth management in multisystem-based virtual passive optical network (VPON) in metro-access optical network (MAON). It is aimed to improve the fairness between priority services as well as the utilization of network resources. According to service lever agreement (SLA), priority services are divided into three categories: Expedited Forwarding (EF), Assured Forwarding (AF) and Best Effort (BE). For the first time, a model transformation scenario that requires consideration of priority is analyzed. Under the model transformation scenario, multi-dimension 0/1 knapsack models of the priority-based mode transformation algorithm are established. By solving the model, an optimal combination of ONUs for mode transformation can be found. Finally, the simulation shows that the priority-based mode transformation algorithm and the single ONU mode transformation algorithm differ in the amount of each service’s transformation bandwidth. It further demonstrates the contribution of the proposed algorithm in fairness.

Overcoming Recklessness in Finance and the Urgent Need for Strengthening Ethics

Lack of ethics had a significant role in the financial crisis of 2007-08 that triggered the Great Recession. Politicians, social and religious leaders have described finance as a soulless sector, particularly prone to corruption and fraud. Bankers themselves have asked for limits and have recognised that a cultural change is needed. The abandonment of a macho culture of greed and recklessness is not easy and takes time. Unfortunately, a delay in the reshaping of the financial system is a luxury that mankind shouldn’t have. Finance plays a critical role of in the allocation of resources across our society. Thus, mankind will only succeed in the challenges that we face (like limiting global warming) if the financial services industry can be trusted as an efficient and ethical auxiliary service to the real economy. Luckily, four main disruptions are emerging in Finance. They may provide the adequate scenario for a deep transformation of the financial system along ethical and responsible lines.

La maternidad como proyecto individual y autónomo. El caso de las madres solas por elección

This paper aims to socialize part of a research that is in the context of a doctoral thesis in Social Sciences funded by a Doctoral Scholarship of the National Council of Scientific and Technical Research located in the National University of Rosario. The theme is about the maternity analysis acting alone and by choice, within a scenario of transformations for the role of women and new filiation contexts in the current Argentine society. The overall purpose of this work is to analyze in an exploratory way the particularities that currently characterize maternity acting alone and by choice within the framework of the transformations of the role of women and of the new filiation contexts. In the first place, this maternity way is placed in a context of political, cultural and legislative transformations, which describe its specificity. Secondly, a brief study of feminist theory is carried out in order to analyze the maternity category and womanhood over the last decades. Finally, the first results obtained from the analysis of semi-structured interviews conducted to single mothers by choice are presented.

Introduction of small-scale 4th generation district heating system. Methodology approach

In nowadays, increased energy efficiency in buildings and reduced thermal energy consumption requires innovative solutions and appropriate district heating system development planning process. 4th generation district heating system is one of the key solutions for improved overall system efficiency by decreased heat losses, improved heat generation efficiency, more efficient use of renewable energy sources and other advantages. The article describes the approach and the methodology for development of strategy to transform the existing DH system to 4GDH system particularly in cases with low DH systems loads. Two factors (low heat load and low temperatures) are becoming more and more actual.The article analyses the transformation process of the particular small-scale DH system in a parish located in the East part of Latvia. As a result, several transformation scenarios are identified. The technical solutions include replacement of a boiler, heating network reconstruction, heat supply temperature lowering and solar panel installation. Further technical analyses is carried out for system development evaluation and strategy implementation. Results shows that it is essential to evaluate the future energy efficiency measures in buildings when such small scale system is evaluated as it results in lower heat density and higher specific heat losses.

Martensitic transformation in ordering-treated Fe74Ga26 alloy

Peak magnetostriction of Fe100-xGax with x around 27 has been attributed to shear modulus softening, analogues to the scenario for a martensitic transformation. Recently, stress-induced local six-layer modulated monoclinic (6 M) martensites have been investigated in Fe-Ga alloy. To identify the spontaneous martensitic transformation behavior, here we performed a comparative study of a Fe74Ga26 alloy with lower D03 ordering degree at the quenched state and with higher D03 ordering degree after subsequent long-term aging. In comparison with the quenched state that bears no martensites, the aged one undergoes spontaneous martensitic transformation upon cooling, and local 6 M martensites are observed after heating from liquid nitrogen temperature to room temperature. It is found that both the ordering degree and the structural stability of D03 phase are significantly improved after long-term aging, which makes the temperature-induced martensites visible. The present finding verifies that martensitic transformation is a universal phenomenon in the magnetostrictive Fe-Ga alloy.

The success story of irrigation against salinity in Violada, NE Spain

AbstractIn the early 20th century, when extensive areas of land were transformed from rainfed to irrigated agriculture, there was a severe lack of scientific and technical literature available on the effects of applying water to saline soils. This was the case of the Violada Irrigation District located in a semiarid region of NE Spain whose transformation started in the 1940s. We discuss the use of agronomical expertise and the limited knowledge of soils available prior to the transformation, the favorable and unfavorable scenarios encountered during the transformation, and the final success of irrigation despite the initial soil salinization and water logging. We attribute the technical success to the fact that gypsum is common in the soils and geological materials, and to the continued drainage efforts. Failures in the irrigation of saline lands are a frequent subject of discussion in the scientific literature; contrariwise, we present the history of a successfully irrigated district after 70 years.

In situ synchrotron X-ray diffraction investigations of the physical mechanism of ultra-low strain hardening in Ti-30Zr-10Nb alloy

A warm-rolled, metastable β-type Ti-30Zr-10Nb alloy exhibited a peculiar two-stage yielding behavior under uniaxial tensile loading, showing a first plastic stage with obvious strain hardening at 0.4%–10.4% strain and a second plastic stage with ultra-low strain hardening at 10.4%–23.5% strain. In situ high-energy X-ray diffraction (HE-XRD) was used to reveal the stress-induced martensitic transformation scenarios and physical mechanism of the different strain hardening rates. It was found that the deformation-induced phase transformation dominated the onset of the first plastic stage corresponding to the selection of favorable martensitic variants, and their elastic interaction contributed to the obvious strain hardening. HE-XRD experiments further verified that the ultra-low strain hardening rate in the second plastic stage was related to an interesting superelasticity of the martensite, which was characterized by the reversible, stress-induced reorientation of the martensite variants. This reorientation of the martensite variants was primarily due to the rigid lattice rotation of ∼23° about the [110]α″ axis toward the tensile direction. Our investigations provide in-depth understanding of the mechanism of the excellent plasticity with ultra-low strain hardening in β-type titanium alloys.

For a Geographic Engineering: from technique in geography to a technical geography

Este artigo propõe a engenharia geográfica como alternativa para (re)inserir o Geógrafo no mercado de trabalho de constantes e intensas transformações. Correlaciona as atribuições do geógrafo com outras categorias profissionais, evidencia sua baixa representatividade no mercado e fatores que limitam seu reconhecimento e desempenho profissional. No cenário de constantes e intensas transformações, que priorizam as tecnologias e profissionais técnicos e pragmáticos, é notória a ascensão dos cursos de engenharias. A proposta da engenharia geográfica não é vista como mais uma tendência, e sim como opção para promover autonomia, superar crises, capacitação tecnológica e um eficiente desempenho profissional.

Transformation towards a Renewable Energy System in Brazil and Mexico—Technological and Structural Options for Latin America

Newly industrialized countries face major challenges to comply with the Paris Treaty targets as economic growth and prosperity lead to increasing energy demand. Our paper analyses technological and structural options in terms of energy efficiency and renewable energies for a massive reduction of energy-related CO2 emissions in Latin America. Brazil and Mexico share similar growth prospects but differ significantly with respect to renewable energy potentials. We identify, how this leads to different transformation pathways. By applying an energy system balancing model we develop normative energy system transformation scenarios across the heating, power, and mobility sectors, including their potential interactions. The normative scenarios rely on three basic strategies for both countries: (1) strong exploitation of efficiency potentials; (2) tapping the renewable energy potentials; and (3) sector coupling and electrification of heat supply and transport. Despite economic growth, significant CO2 emission reductions could be achieved in Brazil from 440 Gt/a (2.2 t/cap) in 2012 to 0.4 Gt (2 kg/cap) in 2050 and in Mexico from 400 Gt/a (3.3 t/cap) to 80 Gt (0.5 t/cap). Our study shows the gap between existing policy and scenarios and our strategies, which provide an economically feasible way to comply with the Paris treaty targets.

CESAR: A bottom-up building stock modelling tool for Switzerland to address sustainable energy transformation strategies

This paper presents the building stock model CESAR (Combined Energy Simulation And Retrofitting), which is based on bottom-up modelling methodology for the development of sustainable energy transformation strategies for the buildings in Swiss districts. CESAR is composed of two sub-models: a Demand Model (DM) and a Retrofitting Model (RM). The DM is tasked with identifying the current energy demand of buildings in districts. It builds on geo-referenced information and available census data, and its flexibility allows it to be applicable to any kind of residential neighbourhood within Switzerland. The DM is based on an automated bottom-up modelling technique, which employs the dynamic building energy simulation software tool EnergyPlus as its simulation core to generate hourly energy demand profiles of individual buildings taking the interactions with neighbouring buildings (e.g. shading and solar inter-reflections) into account. Once current energy demands are calculated by the DM, the RM further offers the possibility to apply a set of energy transformation scenarios, based on the Swiss Energy Strategy 2050, to generate future demand and emission projections of districts including key economic indicators. Besides that, the building energy performance under climate change projections can be evaluated.In this paper, the tool is applied on three case study districts, an urban, suburban and rural area, within Switzerland and different transformation scenarios according to the Energy Strategy are investigated. Results revealed significant differences between the two implemented transformation scenarios, the Business as Usual (WWB) and the New Energy Policy (NEP). While in the WWB scenario, only a small number of buildings reaches the intended targets for primary energy and GHG emissions until 2050, the NEP scenario induces a much higher transformation of the districts. Besides that, the significance of the impact of global warming on future cooling demand is shown.

Experimental Use of Strategic Choice Approach (SCA) by Individuals as an Architectural Design Tool

The paper proposes the use of the Strategic Choice Approach as a way of structuring the architectural design process, done by individuals and partly supported by meetings and interviews with DMs, experts, and stakeholders. The aim is to stimulate a debate around the use of SCA and its possible merging with architectural design, also analysing how the micro-processes involved in this merging can work in practice. We reflect on the possible use of SCA to determine prescriptive conditions on physical form at a scale that is still intermediate between the single building and the urban tissue: the method is employed as a design tool to provide alternative transformation scenarios. It represents a way of approaching the challenge of planning in an uncertain world, eliciting guidelines and strategies, and furthermore it produces an architectural project or transformation in a physical sense. Moreover, by investigating what occurs during the different micro-processes with the interviewees, we focus on some behavioural issues and effects, in relation to the context, the models of the application and the different entities involved in the interventions. This proposal shows an application to a real-world problem, currently under debate by the City of Turin (Italy), the re-use of abandoned barracks located in a prestigious residential area.

Exotic phases of frustrated antiferromagnet LiCu2O2

7Li NMR spectra were measured in a magnetic field up to 17 T at temperatures 5-30 K on single crystalline LiCu2O2. Earlier reported anomalies on magnetization curves correspond to magnetic field values where we observe changes of the NMR spectral shape. For the interpretation of the field and temperature evolutions of our NMR spectra, the magnetic structures were analyzed in the frame of the phenomenological theoretical approach of the Dzyaloshinskii-Landau theory. A set of possible planar and collinear structures was obtained. Most of these structures have an unusual configuration; they are characterized by a two-component order parameter and their magnetic moments vary harmonically not only in direction, but also in size. From the modeling of the observed spectra, a possible scenario of magnetic structure transformations is obtained.

Identifying slope processes over time and their imprint in soils of medium‐high mountains of Central Europe (the Karkonosze Mountains, Poland)

AbstractSoils in mountainous areas are often polygenetic, developed in slope covers that relate to glacial and periglacial activities of the Pleistocene and Holocene and reflect climatic variations. Landscape development during the Holocene may have been influenced by erosion/solifluction that often started after the Holocene climatic optimum. To trace back soil evolution and its timing, we applied a multi‐methodological approach. This approach helped us to outline scenario of soil transformation. According to our results, some aeolian input must have occurred in the late Pleistocene. During that time and the early Holocene, the soils most likely had features of Cryosols or Leptosols. Physico‐chemical and mineralogical analyses have indicated that the material was denudated (between late Boreal to the Atlantic) from the ridge and upper‐slope positions forming a colluvium at mid‐slope positions. Later, during the Sub‐Boreal, mass wasting of the remains of silt material deposited at the end of the Pleistocene age on the ridge top seems to have occurred. In addition, the cool and moist conditions caused the deposition of a colluvium at the lower‐slope positions. The next phase was characterized by the transformation of Leptosols/Cambisols into Podzols at upper‐slope or shoulder positions and to Albic Cambisols at mid‐slope positions. During the Sub‐Boreal period, Stagnosols started to form at the lower part of the slope catena. Overall, the highest erosion rates were calculated at the upper‐slope position and the lowest rates at mid‐slope sites. Berylium‐10 (10Be) data showed that the Bs, BC/C were covered during the Holocene by a colluvium with a different geological composition which complicated the calculation of erosion or accumulation rates. The interpretation of erosion and accumulation rates in such multi‐layered materials may, therefore, be hampered. However, the multi‐methodological reconstruction we applied shed light on the soil and landscape evolution of the eastern Karkonosze Mountains. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A humanização como política pública e suas implicações para a formação em fisioterapia

Introduction: Since its creation, the Unified Health System (SUS) has achieved innumerable and unquestionable advances, however, facing several challenges in the course of its consolidation is still necessary, including greater comprehensiveness in health practices. In the current scenario, with serious problems in professional practices, it is urgent to rescue the valorization and defense of life as the guiding axis of care production. Thus, the objective of the study was to discuss how the National Policy for Humanization of Attention and Management of the Unified Health System has contributed in a relevant way to the consolidation and qualification of health actions and to the strengthening of networking with emphasis on the role of universities and institutions in this scenario of transformations. It is an exploratory, analytical and descriptive study, carried out through a narrative review. Development: The curricular guidelines of health education and the increasing demands of SUS have driven changes in academic training and health education. In Physical Therapy, considering that the profession had its appearance and history more based on physical rehabilitation, the integrality of health actions and the valorization of social commitment are still great challenges in the consolidation of humanization as public policy. Final considerations: The National Policy for Humanization of Attention and Management of the Unified Health System defends the engagement of workers, users and managers as well as the social actors who work in the training of SUS workers as an important strategy for modifying care and management modes of health work, prioritizing the processes of collective construction in health practices. As a result, it is imperative to intensify the reflection on humanization as a health policy and its importance in facing the challenges of strengthening the SUS, within the universities and its various courses, including Physical Therapy.

UNIVERSITY MANAGEMENT: TRANSFORMATION SCENARIOS

The aim of the article is to analyze the modern state of university management systems and possible scenarios of their transformation. Methodological framework of the analysis is based on G. Minzberg approach and his typology of management system structural configuration. Conducted in 2003-2005 and 2016 research in the area of organizational culture state and interviews with experts and lecturers on the topic of university management organization challenges in 2017 allowed for identifying the shifting of management systems transformation direction towards mechanical bureaucracy, which means that universities entered a degradation scenario of university management system change. Key signs of this scenario formation are: - strengthening of formalization in managerial relation at the university; - increase of social distance between university administrators and academic staff; - decrease of trust towards administration among lecturers and researchers; - decrease of organizational and structural diversity of academic environment, stronger unification of university organizational structures. The article looks into prerequisites and conditions for developing other scenarios of university management structure transformation, evaluates possible risks and opportunities. The article is of a problem type and is addressed to researchers and university executives.

SYNTHETIC MODEL OF THE NATIONAL ECONOMIC SYSTEM OF THE REPUBLIC OF BELARUS BASED ON MODIFIED TABLES "COSTS-OUTPUT"

The article has developed a synthetic model of national economic system on the basis of modification of tables "cost Issue", which will allow for forecasting and planning for the development of the country at the level of economic activities, grounded approach to the formation of transformation scenarios and quantify the impact of decisions in this regard

Methods for assessing future scenarios from a sustainability perspective

Future scenarios are often used to address long-term challenges characterised by uncertainty and complexity, as they can help explore different alternative future pathways. Scenarios can therefore be a useful tool to support policy and guide action towards sustainability. But what sustainability aspects are put forward in scenarios and how are they assessed? This paper aims to explore how to assess future scenarios, categorised according to Börjeson et al. (Futures 38:723–739, 2006) i.e. predictive, explorative and normative scenarios. By conducting a literature review and a document analysis, we map tools and methods that are currently used to assess environmental and social sustainability aspects in scenarios. We also draw on experiences from methods for impact assessments of Swedish municipal comprehensive plans, which can be considered as future scenarios. We identify whether some sustainability aspects are less recurrent than others in the reviewed assessments or even left out. We find that there is no single tool that can be used to assess scenarios. Some quantitative tools based on databases may be more suitable for assessing scenarios within a shorter time horizon, whereas qualitative assessment methods might better fit the purpose of long-term transformative scenarios. We also find that assessment frameworks may be useful to guide the assessment, as to what its intended purpose is and which sustainability aspects to include. Finally we discuss whether further assessment tools are needed in order to include a wider array of potential environmental or social consequences of the content of scenarios.