Restoration Scenarios Research Articles

Existing and emerging uses of drones in restoration ecology

Abstract In the absence of effective and scalable human intervention, up to 95% of the world's ecosystems will be affected by anthropogenic degradation by 2050. Therefore, immediate and large‐scale ecological restoration is imperative to stem biodiversity loss and ecosystem decline. Ecologists must draw upon the most effective and efficient tools available to achieve successful restoration goals. Drones (i.e., unmanned aerial vehicles) are a valuable set of tools in the environmental, forestry, and agriculture sectors; however, there has been limited uptake in restoration ecology. Here, we aim to highlight the existing and emerging uses of drones in restoration science and practice. We discuss the strengths and weaknesses of these applications and provide a roadmap for increasing the utilisation of drones to refine and enhance restoration objectives. Our article is presented with the restoration continuum in mind, including sections for restoration planning, implementation and monitoring. We also take a novel approach by describing how drones relate to a globally recognised restoration tool published by the Society for Ecological Restoration. Drones are used in several restoration scenarios from mapping habitats and managing wildfires, to monitoring the effectiveness of restoration interventions. Many applications in other disciplines can also be transferred to restoration scenarios. However, the use of drones will be context‐dependent, and several technical and practical constraints need to be addressed. Drones have considerable potential to improve the science and practice of restoration at all stages of a restoration project, which is vital to realising the goals of the UN Decade on Ecosystem Restoration.

The role of participatory scenarios in ecological restoration: a systematic map protocol

BackgroundThe scale of land degradation worldwide has led the UN to declare the Decade of Ecosystem Restoration and movements such as the Bonn Challenge (https://www.bonnchallenge.org/), have placed ecological restoration on the global policy agenda. Achieving such ambitious policy targets and restoration goals will necessitate complex trade-offs against limited time, competing knowledge, costs, resources, and varying societal preferences among different stakeholders.Participatory scenarios are a tool to navigate uncertainties surrounding future trajectories and simultaneously incorporate different stakeholder perspectives. They can provide a path to identify collaborative solutions best suited for the local cultures and societies they are tied to. However, there is no systematic understanding of how participatory scenarios are being used in ecological restoration planning to navigate trade-offs in restoration outcomes. We will fill this research gap by mapping the existing evidence from participatory restoration scenarios to answer the primary research question ‘How are outcomes explored in participatory ecological restoration scenarios?’. This will be done through five sub-questions focussing on characteristics of the evidence base, types of study design, how outcomes and trade-offs in those are explored, and an examination of the role of participants in the scenario process and outcome determination.MethodsThis protocol outlines the methods for a systematic map to identify studies that have used participatory scenarios in restoration planning. A comprehensive and reproducible search strategy will be undertaken across bibliographic databases, web-based engines, and targeted searches in organisational online libraries. Searches will be done online in English, but results in all languages will be screened. Search results will go through a two-step screening process of against pre-determined criteria of inclusion and exclusion, for title and abstract and then full-text. Data will be extracted from eligible studies using a standardised data extraction spreadsheet where details on study characteristics, design and outcomes will be recorded. A searchable database of studies and mapping outcomes will be available upon completion of the work. The aim is to inform how scenarios can be better used as a decision-making tool to increase stakeholder participation and account for trade-offs in restoration outcomes across social, ecological, and economic dimensions.

Targeting Sagebrush (Artemisia Spp.) Restoration Following Wildfire with Greater Sage-Grouse (Centrocercus Urophasianus) Nest Selection and Survival Models

Unprecedented conservation efforts for sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) ecosystems across the western United States have been catalyzed by risks from escalated wildfire activity that reduces habitat for sagebrush-obligate species such as Greater Sage-Grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus). However, post-fire restoration is challenged by spatial variation in ecosystem processes influencing resilience to disturbance and resistance to non-native invasive species, and spatial and temporal lags between slower sagebrush recovery processes and faster demographic responses of sage-grouse to loss of important habitat. Decision-support frameworks that account for these factors can help users strategically apply restoration efforts by predicting short and long-term ecological benefits of actions. Here, we developed a framework that strategically targets burned areas for restoration actions (e.g., seeding or planting sagebrush) that have the greatest potential to positively benefit sage-grouse populations through time. Specifically, we estimated sagebrush recovery following wildfire and risk of non-native annual grass invasion under four scenarios: passive recovery, grazing exclusion, active restoration with seeding, and active restoration with seedling transplants. We then applied spatial predictions of integrated nest site selection and survival models before wildfire, immediately following wildfire, and at 30 and 50 years post-wildfire based on each restoration scenario and measured changes in habitat. Application of this framework coupled with strategic planting designs aimed at developing patches of nesting habitat may help increase operational resilience for fire-impacted sagebrush ecosystems.

Inclusion of condition in natural capital assessments is critical to the implementation of marine nature-based solutions

Current approaches to measure ecosystem services (ES) within natural capital (NC) and nature-based solutions (NbS) assessments are generally coarse, often using a single figure for ecosystem services (e.g., nutrient remediation or blue carbon sequestration) applied to the local or national habitat stock, which fails to take account of local ecosystem conditions and regional variability. As such, there is a need for improved understanding of the link between habitat condition and ES provision, using comparable indicators in order to take more informed management decisions. Here the UK, Solent Marine Sites (SEMS) is used as a case study system to demonstrate how Water Framework Directive (WFD) ‘ecological status’ and other indicators of ecosystem condition (state or quality) can be coupled with habitat extent information to deliver a more precise locally-tailored NC approach for active coastal and marine habitat restoration. Habitat extent and condition data are collected for seven NbS relevant coastal habitats (littoral sediment, mat-forming green macroalgae, subtidal sediment, saltmarsh, seagrass, reedbeds and native oyster beds). The workflow includes: 1) biophysical assessment of regulatory ES; 2) monetary valuation; and 3) compilation of future scenarios of habitat restoration and creation. The results indicate that incorporating classifications by condition indices into local NC extent accounts improved ES benefits by 11–67%. This suggests that omitting condition from NC assessments could lead to undervaluation of ES benefits. Future scenarios of restoration in the SEMS also show that the additional regulatory benefits of reaching ‘Good’ ecological status are £376 million annually, but could be as much as £1.218 billion if ‘High‘status and all habitat creation targets were met. This evidence of the potential value of restoration and importance of including condition indices in assessments is highly relevant to consider when investing in water ecosystems conservation and restoration as called for by the UN Decade on Ecosystem Restoration (2021−2030), and more generally in global nutrient neutrality and blue carbon policy strategies.

Comparative Life-Cycle Assessment of restoration and renovation of a traditional Danish farmer house

Construction and operation of buildings are a major contributor to environmental impacts. Assessments of environmental impacts of buildings often focus on new buildings, while studies on the existing building stock often focus on energy efficiency renovation. However, historical and traditional buildings are of cultural and visual importance, which should be kept. Hence, a key question is if maintaining original aesthetic via restoration is at the expense of the environment or if it is possible maintain the original appearance of the building while keeping environmental impacts comparable to that of energy renovation. To investigate this, we conducted a Life-Cycle Assessment (LCA) of two options: a restoration and a renovation of an old building from 1887 located on Bornholm, Denmark. The restoration scenario focuses on the use of traditional materials and maintaining the original appearance of the house. The renovation scenario focuses on the use of modern materials and complying with energy requirements for renovated buildings. The results show that, while the impacts of the two scenarios are of similar magnitude, the restoration scenario performs slightly better in the majority of the impact categories in the default LCA-model. A Monte Carlo simulation showed that the restoration scenario performs better in, at least, 90% of the simulations for 8 of the 15 impact categories. This study indicates that restoration is a potentially viable alternative to renovation as a means for maintaining the original appearance of historical buildings to keep cultural heritage while also keeping environmental impacts at levels similar to renovation.

Evaluating Basin-Scale Forest Adaptation Scenarios: Wildfire, Streamflow, Biomass, and Economic Recovery Synergies and Trade-Offs

Active forest management is applied in many parts of the western United States to reduce wildfire severity, mitigate vulnerability to drought and bark beetle mortality, and more recently, to increase snow retention and late-season streamflow. A rapidly warming climate accelerates the need for these restorative treatments, but the treatment priority among forest patches varies considerably. We simulated four treatment scenarios across the 3,450 km2 Wenatchee River basin in eastern Washington, United States. We used a decision support tool (DST) to assess trade-offs and synergies within and among treatments on wildfire risk and smoke emissions, water yield and snow retention, biomass production, and economic return. Treatment scenarios emphasized prescribed burning (BurnOnly), biomass production (MaxBiomass), gap-based thinning to optimize water yield (IdealWater), and a principle-based restoration scenario (RA1). Fire hazard, smoke emissions, and biomass production metrics were evaluated across scenarios using the Forest Vegetation Simulator, and water yields were modeled using the Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model. Simulations were summarized to both patch- (101–102 ha) and subwatershed- (103–104 ha) scales, and treatment effects were evaluated against an untreated baseline landscape. We used logic models to rank effect sizes by scenario across metrics along a continuum between −1 (no or weak effect) to +1 (large effect). All treatments produced benefits across one or more ecosystem services and led to synergistic benefits to water yield and wildfire hazard reduction. Tradeoffs among resource benefits were clear in wilderness where reliance on prescribed burning without mechanical treatment increased costs and eliminated the potential for biomass recovery. The BurnOnly scenario improved fire risk metrics and streamflow, but effect sizes were lower compared to other treatments. IdealWater showed the strongest benefits overall, demonstrating the ability to capture multiple resource benefits through spatially explicit thinning. Our study provides a framework for integrating strategic and tactical models that evaluate tradeoffs and synergies gained through varied management approaches. We demonstrate the utility of decision support modeling to enhance management synergies across large landscapes.

Identifying effective tree planting schemes to restore forest carbon and biodiversity in Shiretoko National Park, Japan

Growing interest in ecosystem restoration has recently turned the focus on tree planting, one of the most widely used restoration tools globally. Here, we study the restoration potential of tree planting in a cool‐temperate forest in Shiretoko National Park, northern Japan. We used simulation modeling to investigate the long‐term success of tree planting in restoring biodiversity and the climate change mitigation function relative to intact natural forests. Specifically, we investigated 31 different restoration scenarios, consisting of five planting densities (1,000–10,000 trees/ha) × six levels of planted tree species richness (one to six species) + one no‐planting scenario. We examined these scenarios at different distances from natural forests serving as a seed source (0–300 m) to quantify the potential for natural regeneration. In restoration areas in close proximity to a natural forest, species‐rich high‐density planting scenario performed best, reaching >50% of the reference values from intact natural forests within 33 years for both restoration goals. However, variation in restoration outcomes was small when >2,500 trees/ha of more than four species were planted, regardless of distance to seed source. In contrast, biodiversity restoration was considerably delayed in scenarios where planted species richness was low as well as in restoration areas that were far from a seed source yet relied solely on natural regeneration. We here demonstrate how forest landscape simulation can be used to identify viable restoration options for managers across multiple restoration goals as an important step to bridge the research–implementation gap in forest restoration.

Megafauna restoration as a legal obligation: International biodiversity law and the rehabilitation of large mammals in Europe

AbstractRestoring functional ecosystems in Europe inter alia requires restoring large mammal (megafauna) diversity and densities to levels well above the current downgraded state, which results from a human‐driven wave of megafauna extinctions and extirpations in the Late Pleistocene and Holocene. Combining law and natural science, we address the question to what degrees international legal instruments support or require such megafauna rewilding efforts. We provide an overview of Europe's current megafauna plus those species that would likely have been present without human interference. We categorize these species and restoration scenarios in ways that make sense from a legal perspective and identify and interpret relevant legal instruments. Our analysis indicates that Article 8(f) of the Convention on Biological Diversity requires restoring the diversity and densities of Europe's megafauna as far as possible—which is indeed quite far. Depending on the circumstances, megafauna rewilding measures can also be required or supported by various other legal instruments at global, pan‐European, European Union and other levels.

Simulated treatment effects on bird communities inform landscape-scale dry conifer forest management.

Human land use and climate change have increased forest density and wildfire risk in dry conifer forests of western North America, threatening various ecosystem services, including habitat for wildlife. Government policy supports active management to restore historical structure and ecological function. Information on potential contributions of restoration to wildlife habitat can allow assessment of tradeoffs with other ecological benefits when prioritizing treatments. We predicted avian responses to simulated treatments representing alternative scenarios to inform landscape‐scale forest management planning along the Colorado Front Range. We used data from the Integrated Monitoring in Bird Conservation Regions program to inform a hierarchical multispecies occupancy model relating species occupancy and richness with canopy cover at two spatial scales. We then simulated changes in canopy cover (remotely sensed in 2018) under three alternative scenarios, (1) a “fuels reduction” scenario representing landscape‐wide 30% reduction in canopy cover, (2) a “restoration” scenario representing more nuanced, spatially variable treatments targeting historical conditions, and (3) a reference, no‐change scenario. Model predictions showed areas of potential gains and losses for species richness, richness of ponderosa pine forest habitat specialists, and the ratio of specialists to generalists at two (1 km2 and 250 m2) spatial scales. Under both fuels reduction and restoration scenarios, we projected greater gains than losses for species richness. Surprisingly, despite restoration more explicitly targeting ecologically relevant historical conditions, fuels reduction benefited bird species richness over a greater spatial extent than restoration, particularly in the lower montane life zone. These benefits reflected generally positive species associations with moderate canopy cover promoted more consistently under the fuels reduction scenario. In practice, contemporary forest management is likely to lie somewhere between the fuels reduction and restoration scenarios represented here. Therefore, our results inform where and how active forest management can best support avian diversity. Although our study raises questions regarding the value of including landscape‐scale heterogeneity as a management objective, we do not question the value of targeting finer scale heterogeneity (i.e., stand and treatment level). Rather, our results combined with those from previous work clarify the scale at which targeting structural heterogeneity and historical reference conditions can promote particular ecosystem services.

Cost-benefit analysis of ecological restoration based on land use scenario simulation and ecosystem service on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

Ecological degradation is a serious problem across the world constraining regional sustainable development, while ecological restoration is of great significance in alleviating this issue. Cost-benefit analysis of ecological restoration is valid for successful project implementation and planning but large-scale studies are still lacking, especially for the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP), which has a special geographic location and extremely fragile ecosystems. This study applied patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) model to simulate different ecological restoration scenarios and quantified their costs and benefits (ecosystem services values). The results indicated that restoration priority areas varied in specific landscapes for different scenarios. For grassland restoration, the scenarios prioritized the southwestern regions with large tracts of grassland. The cost-benefit analysis showed that the benefit cost ratio of farmland afforestation scenario was the largest, with the value of 128.2; and it was the lowest in the degraded land restoration scenario, with the value of 58.44. And the benefit cost ratio of degraded grassland restoration was between the two, which is 80.83. Besides, in the comprehensive restoration scenarios, the benefit cost ratio increased with the increase of the grassland restoration area when the afforestation area and the degraded land restoration area remained unchanged. The results can guide and support ecological restoration planning and policy formulation on the QTP. • This study simulates four categories ecological restoration scenarios. • The benefits and cost of various restoration scenarios are quantified and compared. • Cost-benefit analysis shows that the farmland afforestation has the highest benefit.

Turnover rates of regenerated forests challenge restoration efforts in the Brazilian Atlantic forest

Natural forest regeneration is a key component of global ecosystem restoration scenarios. Regenerated forests, however, may not persist and a better understanding of the drivers of forest persistence is critical to ensure the success of restoration efforts. We used 35 years of detailed land cover maps to quantify forest regeneration and study the drivers of regenerated forest persistence and longevity in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest, a restoration hotspot. We mapped over 4.47 Mha of native forest regenerated in the region between 1985 and 2019, of which, two thirds persisted until 2019 (3.1 Mha). However, mean age of ephemeral (i.e. cleared before 2019) forest regeneration was only 7.9 years, suggesting a rapid turnover of regrowing forests under certain conditions. Regenerated forests had greater longevity and probability of persistence in steeper slopes, close to rivers and existing forests, near permanent agriculture, and in areas with higher Gross Development Product and agricultural yield, but were less likely to persist in areas with higher rural-urban population ratios. Regeneration occurred predominantly in pasturelands and areas of shifting agriculture, but it was also less likely to persist within these dynamic landscapes. Specific public policies should stimulate forest regeneration in areas of consolidated agriculture, where forest permanence tends to be higher. The ephemerality of forest regeneration in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest highlights the importance of favorable conditions and policies that promote second-growth forest persistence in tropical regions. Conservation of regenerating forests is critical for meeting national and global restoration and climate mitigation goals.

Polarization-based smoke removal method for surgical images.

Smoke generated during surgery affects tissue visibility and degrades image quality, affecting surgical decisions and limiting further image processing and analysis. Polarization is a fundamental property of light and polarization-resolved imaging has been studied and applied to general visibility restoration scenarios such as for smog or mist removal or in underwater environments. However, there is no related research or application for surgical smoke removal. Due to differences between surgical smoke and general haze scenarios, we propose an alternative imaging degradation model by redefining the form of the transmission parameters. The analysis of the propagation of polarized light interacting with the mixed medium of smoke and tissue is proposed to realize polarization-based smoke removal (visibility restoration). Theoretical analysis and observation of experimental data shows that the cross-polarized channel data generated by multiple scattering is less affected by smoke compared to the co-polarized channel. The polarization difference calculation for different color channels can estimate the model transmission parameters and reconstruct the image with restored visibility. Qualitative and quantitative comparison with alternative methods show that the polarization-based image smoke-removal method can effectively reduce the degradation of biomedical images caused by surgical smoke and partially restore the original degree of polarization of the samples.

How do You Want to restore?--Assessing the Public Preferences and Social Benefits of Ecological Restoration for Natural Rubber Plantation in China

Revealing the public’s preference for ecological restoration projects will help increase public support and improve social benefits evaluation accuracy, which is a prerequisite for implementing ecological restoration projects. This study aimed to reveal the public’s preference for natural rubber plantation restoration projects and then quantify the social benefits of these projects to provide valuable references for related policy design. Based on choice experiments, we built a hypothetical market of ecological products and conducted a field survey to obtain the public’s preferences and willingness to pay (WTP) for natural rubber plantation restoration projects. Then, a random parameters logit model was applied to obtain public preference information, and then the social benefits brought by different restoration scenarios were calculated and compared. The results showed that: 1) residents of Hainan Province had a positive attitude toward ecological restoration for natural rubber plantations and were willing to bear a personal cost. 2) respondents had significant differences in preference for attributes of restoration projects. 3) a restoration project covering 2.1 million mu of rubber plantations, prioritizing the water source protection area, focusing the implementation on state farms, and developing the under-forest breeding economy would gain more social benefits, precisely, 337.543 million yuan/year. Ecological restoration policies should pay more attention to public needs and incorporate them into future guidelines. Policymakers should focus on restoration quality instead of the restoration area. Priority should be given to rubber plantations close to the water source protection area and small householders, and an appropriate under-forest economy should be considered. This study can provide a valuable reference for policy-making related to rubber plantation restoration.

Multi-objective forest restoration planning in Costa Rica: Balancing landscape connectivity and ecosystem service provisioning with sustainable development

Degradation, fragmentation, and loss of tropical forests has exponentially increased in the last decades leading to unprecedented rates of species extinctions and loss of ecosystems functions and services. Forest restoration is key to recover ecosystems health and achieve the UN Sustainable Development Goals. However, restoring forests at the landscape scale presents many challenges, since it requires balancing conservation goals and economic development. In this study, we used a spatial planning tool (Marxan) to identify priority areas for restoration satisfying multiple objectives across a biological corridor in Costa Rica. Biological corridors are critical conservation instruments promoting forest connectivity while acknowledging human presence. Increasing forest connectivity requires restoration initiatives that will likely conflict with other land uses, some of them of high national economic importance. Our restoration plan sought to maximize the provision of forest-related services (i.e., seed dispersal, tourism and carbon storage) while minimizing the impact on current land uses and thus avoiding potential conflicts. We quantified seed dispersal and tourism services (birdwatching potential) using species distribution models. We used the carbon sequestration model of InVEST to quantify carbon storage potential. We tested different restoration scenarios that differed in whether land opportunity costs of current uses were considered or not when identifying potential restoration areas, or how these costs were estimated. We showed how a landscape-scale forest restoration plan accounting for only forest connectivity and ecosystem service provision capacity can greatly differ from a plan that considers the potential impacts on local livelihoods. Spatial planning tools can assist at designing cost-effective landscape-scale forest restoration plans, identifying priority areas where forest restoration can maximize ecosystem provision and increase forest connectivity. Special care must be paid to the use of adequate estimates of opportunity cost, to avoid potential conflicts between restoration goals and other legitimate land uses.

Murine Model for Measuring Effects of Humanized-Dosing of Antibiotics on the Gut Microbiome.

There is a current need for enhancing our insight in the effects of antimicrobial treatment on the composition of human microbiota. Also, the spontaneous restoration of the microbiota after antimicrobial treatment requires better understanding. This is best addressed in well-defined animal models. We here present a model in which immune-competent or neutropenic mice were administered piperacillin-tazobactam (TZP) according to human treatment schedules. Before, during and after the TZP treatment, fecal specimens were longitudinally collected at established intervals over several weeks. Gut microbial taxonomic distribution and abundance were assessed through culture and molecular means during all periods. Non-targeted metabolomics analyses of stool samples using Quadrupole Time of Flight mass spectrometry (QTOF MS) were also applied to determine if a metabolic fingerprint correlated with antibiotic use, immune status, and microbial abundance. TZP treatment led to a 5–10-fold decrease in bacterial fecal viability counts which were not fully restored during post-antibiotic follow up. Two distinct, relatively uniform and reproducible restoration scenarios of microbiota changes were seen in post TZP-treatment mice. Post-antibiotic flora could consist of predominantly Firmicutes or, alternatively, a more diverse mix of taxa. In general, the pre-treatment microbial communities were not fully restored within the screening periods applied. A new species, closely related to Eubacterium siraeum, Mageeibacillus indolicus, and Saccharofermentans acetigenes, became predominant post-treatment in a significant proportion of mice, identified by 16S rRNA gene sequencing. Principal component analysis of QTOF MS of mouse feces successfully distinguished treated from non-treated mice as well as immunocompetent from neutropenic mice. We observe dynamic but distinct and reproducible responses in the mouse gut microbiota during and after TZP treatment and propose the current murine model as a useful tool for defining the more general post-antibiotic effects in the gastro-intestinal ecosystem where humanized antibiotic dosing may ultimately facilitate extrapolation to humans.

Landscape-scale forest restoration decreases vulnerability to drought mortality under climate change in southwest USA ponderosa forest

Drought-induced tree mortality is predicted to increase in dry forests across the globe as future projections show hotter, drier climates. This could potentially result in large-scale tree die-offs, changes in species composition, and loss of forest ecosystem services, including carbon storage. While some studies have found that forest stands with greater basal areas (BA) have higher drought mortality, many have not evaluated the extent to which forests restored to lower densities via restoration activities affect drought mortality. The southwestern USA is particularly susceptible to tree mortality due to the predicted increases in temperature, drier soils, and forests with high density. Our objective was to evaluate how ponderosa pine mortality is expected to be influenced by the Four Forests Restoration Initiative (4FRI), a large-scale forest restoration effort ongoing in northern Arizona, USA, that will reduce stand BA by approximately 40%. Specifically, we modeled drought mortality in three time periods, one contemporary (1970–2010), and two future (2020–2059 and 2060–2099) under three restoration scenarios: no thinning, 4FRI thinning, and a BA reduction beyond the 4FRI plan (4FRI-intensive). We estimated mortality using 11 climate models under two emissions scenarios. Without thinning, our model predicted that by mid-century (2020–2059), changes in climate could increase annual ponderosa pine mortality rates by 45–57% over contemporary rates. However, with thinning, mid-century mortality was predicted to remain near or below contemporary rates and these rates are 31–35% (4FRI) and 46–51% (4FRI-intensive) less than the mid-century scenarios without thinning. Our study shows that while climate change is likely to increase tree mortality rates, large-scale forest restoration projects, such as 4FRI, have the potential to ameliorate the effects of climate change and keep mortality rates near contemporary levels for decades.

Biocapacity and cost-effectiveness benefits of increased peatland restoration in Scotland

Ecological Footprint and biocapacity accounting is a widely-used ecological accounting framework which tracks human demand against the biosphere's rate of regeneration. However, current national assessments do not yet include carbon-dense peatlands, hindering the evaluation of peatland biocapacity contributions. Also, the economic efficiency of peatland restoration is understudied and needed to inform land use decisions. We provide the first assessment of Scotland's biocapacity and add peatlands as a novel land type. We then project the biocapacity impacts in 2050 of current peatland restoration targets and various alternative management scenarios. Finally, we estimate the cost per tonne of greenhouse gas abated of various peatland restoration scenarios, and compare this with estimates of afforestation mitigation costs from the literature. Our results show that Scotland's per-person biocapacity exceeds the UK average by a factor of three. However, despite covering 25% of land area, peatland biocapacity increases Scotland's biocapacity total by only 2%, while the Carbon Footprint of degraded peatlands increases Scotland's ecological deficit by 40%. Current peatland restoration targets of the Scottish Government are estimated to reduce the national ecological deficit by only 9% in 2050. The cost-effectiveness of peatland restoration is context-dependent, and extremely cost-effective methods are applicable to peatland areas far exceeding current government restoration targets. Our findings provide land managers with evidence in favour of increased peatland restoration, both in terms of boosting biocapacity, and economic cost-effectiveness.

Thermal Suitability of the Los Angeles River for Cold Water Resident and Migrating Fish Under Physical Restoration Alternatives

Anthropogenic development has adversely affected river habitat and species diversity in urban rivers, and existing habitats are jeopardized by future uncertainties in water resources management and climate. The Los Angeles River (LAR), for example, is a highly modified system that has been mostly channelized for flood control purposes, has altered hydrologic and hydraulic conditions, and is thermally altered (warmed), which severely limits the habitat suitability for cold water fish species. Efforts are currently underway to provide suitable environmental flows and improve channel hydraulic conditions, such as depth and velocity, for adult fish migration from the Pacific Ocean to upstream spawning areas. However, the thermal responses of restoration alternatives for resident and migrating cold water fish have not been fully investigated. Using a mechanistic model, we simulated the LAR’s water temperature under baseline conditions and future alternative restoration scenarios for migration of the native, anadromous steelhead trout in Southern California and the historically resident Santa Ana sucker. We considered three scenarios: 1) increasing roughness of the low-flow channel, 2) increasing the depth and width of the low-flow channel, and 3) allowing subsurface inflow to the river at a soft bottom reach in the LA downtown area. Our analysis indicates that the maximum weekly average temperature (MaxWAT) in the baseline condition was 28.9°C, suggesting that the current river temperatures would act as a limiting factor during the steelhead migration season and habitat for Santa Ana sucker. The MaxWAT dropped about 3%–28°C after applying all the considered scenarios at the study site, which is 3°C higher than the determined steelhead survival threshold. Our simulations suggest that without consideration of thermal restoration, restoring hydraulic conditions may be insufficient to support cold water fish migration or year-round resident native fish populations, particularly with potential river temperature increases due to climate change.

The coupling interaction of soil organic carbon stock and water storage after vegetation restoration on the Loess Plateau, China

Vegetation restoration may increase the soil organic carbon stock (SOCS) but decrease the soil water storage (SWS) of terrestrial ecosystems in arid and semiarid regions. To guarantee the sustainability of restoration, it is critical to evaluate the coupling interaction of SOCS and SWS. Here, we examined the spatial distributions of SOCS and SWS across a 0–200 cm soil profile in a grassland, forestland and shrubland on the Loess Plateau and determined the driving factors that affected their variations. Our results showed that SOCS and SWS varied across the 0–200 cm soil profile and considerably accumulated in the deep soil layers (100–200 cm). In comparison to SOCS, SWS generally had higher relative benefits in most studied plant communities, which ensured sustainable restoration. In addition, land use played a less important role than local environmental conditions in determining the variations in SOCS and SWS. Specifically, the interaction between SOCS and SWS was mainly strong in the surface soil layers (0–20 cm). Topography was a predominant factor that affected SOCS and SWS in the deep soil layers (100–200 cm), while soil texture was a stable driving factor influencing their variations across the whole soil profile (0–200 cm). Given the low moisture consumption of grasslands and the lowest root mean square deviation (RMSD) of Hippophae rhamnoides, we proposed an advanced scenario for ecological restoration on the Loess Plateau: establishing reasonably large Hippophae rhamnoides patches with fewer edges in a contiguous grassland matrix. Furthermore, this scenario should be tailored to local environmental conditions, such as soil water, texture and topography, followed by natural vegetation succession.

Inequities in the distribution of flood risk under floodplain restoration and climate change scenarios

Abstract The combined impacts of climate change and ecological degradation are expected to worsen inequality within society. These dynamics are exemplified by increases in flood risk globally. In general, low‐income and socially vulnerable populations disproportionately bear the cost of flood damages. Climate change is expected to increase the number of people exposed to fluvial flood risk and cause greater property damages. Floodplain restoration has the potential to mitigate these impacts, but the distribution of future risks among different types of property owners under these altered conditions is often unknown. Here, we develop a simple probabilistic approach for estimating flood risk to property owners under floodplain restoration and climate change scenarios for a range of flood recurrence intervals. We apply this approach in the Vermont, USA portion of the Lake Champlain Basin. Over a 100‐year time horizon, we estimate that the value of property damages caused by flood inundation is approximately $2.13 billion under the baseline scenario. Climate change is expected to increase damages to $5.29 billion, a 148% increase; however, floodplain restoration has the potential to reduce these impacts by approximately 20%. For all scenarios, a larger proportion of lower‐value properties, specifically mobile homes, face greater flood risk compared to higher‐value properties. Climate change is expected to cost higher‐value properties and commercial properties more than other types of properties, but these same groups are also expected to benefit most from floodplain restoration. In general, these results raise concern that those least able to prepare for and recover from flood damages are also the people who face the greatest threats. In response, public policy interventions must consider not only where flood risk is most severe, but also the vulnerability of people exposed to such risk. Read the free Plain Language Summary for this article on the Journal blog.