Climate Change Scenarios Research Articles

EVALUATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON SUGARCANE AND CITRUS CROPS IN BRAZIL

Agricultural production is directly related to the environmental conditions. Favorable conditions can lead to higher productivity and product quality. However, climate change may pose a threat to agricultural production across the globe, as a rise in temperature may cause a decrease in the extent of suitable areas for growing certain crops. Using spatial analysis and data from future climate change scenarios developed by the IPCC, this research aims to evaluate the impact of climate change on the sugarcane and citrus plantations in the state of Sao Paulo from agroclimatic zoning mapping. The results of this research demonstrate that both crops can suffer great reduction of areas suitable for cultivation if there are severe changes in the climate regime, and these results can be used by managers and researchers to mitigate these potential impacts, as well as to clarify how climate change affects life on the planet, with the possible reduction of food and bioenergy production.

A New SDM-Based Approach for Assessing Climate Change Effects on Plant–Pollinator Networks

Current methods for studying the effects of climate change on plants and pollinators can be grouped into two main categories. The first category involves using species distribution models (SDMs) to generate habitat suitability maps, followed by applying climate change scenarios to predict the future distribution of plants and pollinators separately. The second category involves constructing interaction matrices between plants and pollinators and then either randomly removing species or selectively removing generalist or specialist species, as a way to estimate how climate change might affect the plant–pollinator network. The primary limitation of the first approach is that it examines plant and pollinator distributions separately, without considering their interactions within the context of a pollination network. The main weakness of the second approach is that it does not accurately predict climate change impacts, as it arbitrarily selects species to remove without knowing which species will truly shift, decline, or increase in distribution due to climate change. Therefore, a new approach is needed to bridge the gap between these two methods while avoiding their specific limitations. In this context, we introduced an innovative approach that first requires the creation of binary climate suitability maps for plants and pollinators, based on SDMs, for both the current and future periods. This step aligns with the first category of methods mentioned earlier. To assess the effects of climate change within a network framework, we consider species co-overlapping in a geographic matrix. For this purpose, we developed a Python program that overlays the binary distribution maps of plants and pollinators, generating interaction matrices. These matrices represent potential plant–pollinator interactions, with a ‘0’ indicating no overlap and a ‘1’ where both species coincide in the same cell. As a result, for each cell within the study area, we can construct interaction matrices for both the present and future periods. This means that for each cell, we can analyze at least two pollination networks based on species co-overlap. By comparing the topology of these matrices over time, we can infer how climate change might affect plant–pollinator interactions at a fine spatial scale. We applied our methodology to Chile as a case study, generating climate suitability maps for 187 plant species and 171 pollinator species, resulting in 2906 pollination networks. We then evaluated how climate change could affect the network topology across Chile on a cell-by-cell basis. Our findings indicated that the primary effect of climate change on pollination networks is likely to manifest more significantly through network extinctions, rather than major changes in network topology.

Potential Distribution and Carbon Sequestration of Rhizophora mangle L. in El Vizcaíno Biosphere Reserve, Baja California Sur, Mexico

Mangroves are a type of vegetation distributed in warm areas of the planet. Despite their importance, this flora is seriously threatened by both human activities and climate change. One of the main benefits provided by mangroves is carbon capture and storage, which is key for climate change mitigation. The main objective of this study was to identify the potential distribution and carbon sequestration potential of Rhizophora mangle L. in El Vizcaíno Biosphere Reserve. Potential distribution models were obtained for Baja California Sur, Mexico, using the MaxLike algorithm. For each projection, we used bioclimatic variables from the WorldClim project for current and future conditions (2050 and 2070), two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5) and three General Circulation Models (ACCESS-CM2, EC-Earth3-Veg and MPI-ESM1-2-HR). The potential distribution models were developed within the perimeter of El Vizcaíno Biosphere Reserve as a case study to establish the potential for carbon sequestration under different climate change scenarios. Our results show a possible future carbon sequestration from 10,177,174 Mg of CO2 and up to 14,022,367 Mg of CO2 for the ACCESS-CM2 SSP5-8.5 to 2070 and MPI-ESM1-2-HR SSP2-4.5 to 2070 projections, respectively. Mangrove species such as Rhizophora mangle can be an important part of climate change mitigation and adaptation.

Rescue and return: Translocating a semi‐wild platypus (Ornithorhynchus anatinus) population during the 2019 drought

SummaryPlatypus (Ornithorhynchus anatinus) are an endemic Australian freshwater mammal, impacted by synergistic threats across their range. During the extreme drought of 2017–2019, declining water levels threatened Platypus at Tidbinbilla Nature Reserve (TNR), Australian Capital Territory (ACT), Australia. TNR supports a population of Platypus, occupying interconnected ponds within a predator proof fence. During drought conditions in 2019, Platypuses could not move out of the fenced area to refugia as floodgates were closed due to low water levels. In winter of 2019, eight Platypuses were found deceased resulting from starvation. By December, water levels were extremely low and ponds were continuing to dry. Given these circumstances, a rescue intervention was undertaken to capture stranded Platypuses. They were temporarily relocated and housed at Taronga Zoo, Sydney, until they were returned when conditions at TNR improved. Seven Platypuses were rescued, with five successfully housed at Taronga for 5 months. One Platypus was lost after escaping from its enclosure and another Platypus died when trapped in a crevice. The Platypuses were returned after water levels increased at TNR and were monitored for 500 days post‐release, demonstrating successful repatriation. This case study outlines the key stages and considerations required for this intervention, providing critical information for rescue attempts on drought‐affected Platypus populations. There is a need to continue developing a decision framework for interventions of climate‐affected populations, including quantifying trigger thresholds and conservation prioritisation of populations. This will become increasingly necessary given the trajectories of habitat degradation, coupled with the increasingly frequent and severe droughts, expected under anticipated climate change scenarios.

Implications of CMIP6 Models‐Based Climate Biases and Runoff Sensitivity on Runoff Projection Uncertainties Over Central India

ABSTRACTAccurate runoff projections are vital for developing climate adaptation strategies, yet significant uncertainties persist. The commonly employed approaches to constrain these uncertainties rely on the stationarity of climate biases and runoff sensitivity, which may not hold for climate‐sensitive regions (e.g., semi‐arid regions). This study investigates the validity of the stationarity assumption across 29 CMIP6 models, encompassing diverse climate biases (Dry Warm, Wet Warm, Dry Cold, and Wet Cold), utilising a semi‐arid region in central India as a testbed. The implications of this assumption on runoff projection uncertainties were comprehensively assessed across the runoff modelling chain for three time periods (the 2030s, 2060s and 2090s) based on the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) simulations. The results highlight the non‐stationary nature of climate biases and runoff sensitivity under future scenarios, challenging the widespread applicability of common uncertainty‐constraining approaches. Moreover, the impact of non‐stationarity on runoff projection uncertainty was found to be strongly influenced by the choice of GCMs, preprocessing methods and climate change scenarios. In the 2030s, GCMs dominate runoff uncertainty, with dry models exhibiting ~10%–15% higher uncertainty compared to warm models, which is further amplified when interacting with warm biases. However, from the mid‐century onwards, the bias‐adjustment approaches and climate change scenarios significantly shape runoff projection uncertainties under non‐stationary conditions. These findings emphasise the potential of climate bias and runoff sensitivity‐based GCM selection for reducing runoff uncertainty in near‐future assessment (2030s). For mid‐term and long‐term runoff projections, addressing diverse climate biases through bias‐adjustment approaches is more viable. This study offers critical insights to prioritise the development of a non‐stationarity‐based approach for reliable runoff projections in climate‐sensitive regions.

Simulating the impact of climate change on energy consumption and yield in Canadian greenhouse horticulture

Greenhouse horticulture is a very energy-intensive industry in cold regions such as Canada due to heating and lighting needs. It is still largely unknown how climate change will impact the energy profile and productivity of this vital industry. In this work, a greenhouse producing tomatoes has been simulated in eight Canadian cities under current and 2080 climates based on climatic trajectory RCP8.5, in order to determine how the energy consumption and tomato yield would be affected. Results show that, on average, energy consumption decreases by 11 % due to a reduction of the heating needs, whereas yield decreases by 17 % due to a higher canopy temperature. The use of light-emitting diodes (LED) resulted in a lower energy consumption than that of high-pressure sodium (HPS) lighting in both current and future weather conditions. This work suggests that the greenhouse industry is likely to require some adaptations to climate change and that reaching a balance between energy consumption and productivity will be a challenge. As an example, the addition of a mechanical cooling and dehumidification system was simulated and allowed to increase the yield compared to the current situation, even in the 2080 climate change scenario, at the expense of higher energy consumption. However, a more in-depth analysis is required to identify the best adaptative strategies for mitigating the impacts of climate change on greenhouse production.

Saltwater intrusion simulations in coastal karstic aquifers related to climate change scenarios

Coastal zones are crucial ecosystems supporting significant biodiversity and pertinent socio-economic activities. However, anthropogenic development contributes to socio-environmental complexities, particularly public water supply threats caused by climate change. This research presents a case study on the north-western coast of Yucatan, Mexico, which models potential saltwater intrusion in groundwater for multiple projections of sea level rise and recharge change due to climate change and its implications for the public water supply of the regional population and ecosystem. For this purpose, a previously calibrated and validated numerical model is employed, adapting its boundary conditions, keeping its calibrated hydrogeologic parameters, and considering the 2040 and 2100 climate change projections. Simulation results show that under these projections, significant saltwater intrusion may occur, reducing freshwater thickness due to increased salinity in groundwater and a loss of freshwater sources resulting from brackish-saline wedge intrusion. These scenarios are of particular concern as freshwater in this coastal region is the main source for public water supply and for freshwater input in coastal ecosystems. Moreover, this study underscores the susceptibility of karstic aquifers to salinization, especially in the face of rising sea levels, given their unique hydrogeological characteristics and substantial responsiveness to marine forcings. In spite of the uncertainties in global climate change predictions, this study enhances our understanding of the dynamics of these unique aquifers, and presents future saltwater intrusion projections that offer valuable technical insights to design and implement pertinent and resilient coastal aquifer management strategies.

Modeling soil organic matter changes under crop diversification strategies and climate change scenarios in the Brazilian Cerrado

In Brazil, land conversion and agricultural management have historically accounted for the largest share of the country's greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, with the Cerrado region being one of the most affected areas. Although cropping diversification has been proposed as a potential strategy to mitigate GHG emissions through soil organic carbon (SOC) sequestration, the long-term effects of these systems in the Cerrado are unknown. The DayCent model was used to simulate the impact of crop diversification and tillage on SOC dynamics until 2070 (∼50 years), including common crop succession systems and crop rotations associated with cover crops under climate change scenarios. First, we calibrated and evaluated the DayCent model using plant and soil observations from three sites in the region, where Pearson coefficients (r values) ranged from 0.50 to 0.94 (calibration sites) and 0.53–0.99 (validation site) for crop yields, SOC, and nitrogen. We then used the model to investigate how cropping systems and climate interact to control SOC levels. Results indicate that SOC stocks would decrease under the long-term (∼50 years) soybean-cotton succession, regardless of soil management (-0.04 to −0.17 Mg C ha−1 year−1). Crop diversification with crop rotation and cover crops (i.e., millet, ruzigrass, sunn hemp) had the highest SOC accrual potential (∼0.71 Mg C ha−1 year−1), resulting in SOC stocks of up to 130 Mg C ha−1 by 2070. Ruzigrass, either single or intercropped with maize on crop succession systems, showed substantial potential for SOC sequestration (∼0.55 Mg C ha−1 year−1) and could be a viable strategy if implementing more complex rotations is not feasible. The SSP2 – 4.5 and SSP5 – 8.5 climate change scenarios increased SOC stocks by 6.3 and 8.2 % in SOC across treatments by 2070, respectively. Results suggest that diversified cropping systems are a promising strategy for increasing SOC sequestration, and they offer valuable guidance for enhancing current management practices in the region.

Sustainability of Groundwater Exploitation Under Climate Change Scenarios in a Mountainous Area of South Korea

The excessive extraction of groundwater is a globally significant issue, as it can lead to the permanent loss of groundwater system sustainability. Sustainable groundwater requires development that appropriately balances the needs of both humans and the environment. In this study, the exploitable groundwater (EGW) of the So-Yang-gang Dam (SYD) Basin was estimated based on simulated groundwater recharge rates using SWAT, and the sustainability of future groundwater development was evaluated under different climate change scenarios. The EGW in each sub-watershed of the SYD was estimated to range from 60 to 240 mm/year, with higher values in the upstream watersheds. A sustainability index (SI) was evaluated, ranging from 0.56 to 1.0 across various GCMs. The analysis revealed that uniform EGW across a watershed is overestimated value in sub-watersheds with low recharge rates, potentially accelerating groundwater depletion in those areas. Thus, a flexible EGW estimation approach is essential to balance groundwater conservation with human water demands.

MaxEnt modeling of Klebsiella pneumoniae: predicting future distribution and evaluating the risk for public health

Klebsiella pneumoniae is a Gram-negative bacterium known for causing infections such as pneumonia, urinary tract infections, and bloodstream infections in humans. Its increasing drug resistance poses a significant threat. Understanding the effects of climate change on this bacterium is crucial to managing its impacts effectively. In this study, we employed MaxEnt modeling to explore the current and future distribution of K. pneumoniae under different climate change scenarios for 2050 and 2070. Our models utilized 280 valid occurrence points and 19 bioclimatic variables, with Mean Annual Temperature and Mean Annual Precipitation being the most influential variables. The models demonstrated high accuracy, with an AUC of 0.889. Our findings revealed that K. pneumoniae has a cosmopolitan distribution, with the highest suitability observed in Southeastern Asia, Central Africa, and Southern Europe. Future predictions indicated an apparent expansion of its range across almost all continents, particularly in the RCP 8.5 2070 scenario. Results have crucial implications for epidemiology, as they enable the identification of current and potential future disease hotspots and geographical patterns. This knowledge can inform the development of effective infection control strategies. Furthermore, it provides valuable insights for decision-makers and policymakers in allocating resources efficiently for medical control and prevention strategies.

Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Hydrology Using an Integrated Water Quality Index

Traditional Water Quality Indices (WQIs) often fail to capture the significant impact of flow velocity on water quality, especially under varying hydrological conditions. In this study, an Integrated Water Quality Index (IWQI) was developed by combining water quality parameters and flow rate, providing a more comprehensive assessment under various flow conditions. Compared to traditional indices, the IWQI showed slightly lower correlations in individual parameter performance, but it performed well in evaluating water quality changes associated with flow variations. Parameters such as Total Phosphorus (TP), Total Coliforms (TC), and Fecal Coliforms (FC), which are prevalent pollutants in the Cheongmi River, significantly influenced IWQI scores. River water quality was evaluated using input data simulated under a climate change scenario. When precipitation was abundant, the IWQI score remained relatively stable even with reduced flow rates. However, during periods of insufficient rainfall, water quality deteriorated sharply. While general water quality parameters exhibited approximately a 10% change as flow decreased, TC and FC showed rapid deterioration, with change rates ranging from 20% to 60%. These findings underscore the importance of managing TC and FC, particularly when insufficient rainfall is predicted, as they are major sources of pollution.

Temporal and inter-specific population genetics analyses of Sebastiscus marmoratus and S. tertius provide novel implications for fishery management

ABSTRACT Understanding population genetic diversity and evolutionary dynamics of marine fish species can provide theoretical bases for fishery management and germplasm conservation, especially facing a changing environment. The rockfish species in genus Sebastiscus are economically important species for farming and sport fisheries in China, Japan and Korea. In this study, inter-annual and inter-specific comparisons on genetic diversity, population differentiation and historical demography of S. marmoratus and S. tertius collected from coastal waters of Zhangzhou, China were conducted using mitochondrial control region sequences. High levels of genetic diversity were observed in both species, indicating high adaptive potential to environmental changes. Demographic analyses detected recent population expansion in population S. tertius (Ste-2020) and population S. marmoratus collected in 2020 (Sma-2020), yet failed in population collected in 2016 (Sma-2016). Moreover, in population Sma-2020, novel haplotypes were detected and grouped into a separate sub-branch, revealed by neighbour-joining topology. Detected recent population expansion and novel haplotypes might be considered as a response to environmental changes. Besides, results of genetic differentiation analysis suggested high intra-specific genetic variation in both species. These genetic data and information will provide novel implications for strengthening the management of S. marmoratus and S. tertius fisheries in climate change scenarios.

Predicting future impacts of climate and land use change on streamflow in the middle reaches of China's Yellow River

With increasing temperatures, changing weather patterns and ongoing development, it is becoming increasingly important to clarify the evolution mechanism of future regional streamflow processes and their controlling factors. In this study, an integrated framework for watershed streamflow prediction based on a Global Climate Model (GCM), the Patch-generating Land Use Simulation model (PLUS), and the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was proposed in the middle Yellow River. The results indicate that, compared with the baseline period (1989–2018), levels of precipitation and maximum and minimum temperatures are expected to increase in the next 30 years, resulting in a warmer and wetter regional climate. Under various climate scenarios, the annual streamflow is projected to increase by 49.2–115.1%. The acreage of various land types may have tended to be saturated, and the main land types such as cropland, forest and grassland have little change (−6.6%-0.6%), so the impact on streamflow will be correspondingly reduced. Under various land use scenarios, the annual streamflow is projected to increase by 5.0%–7.3%. The annual average streamflow trends under the combined climate and land use scenarios are consistent with the climate change scenarios, while the mean values corresponding to the combined scenarios are higher than those of the single scenario. Findings show that climate change is the main driver influencing streamflow, with a contribution of 86.3%–95.1%. This study deepens understanding of the change pattern and influence mechanism of the streamflow process, which can provide a scientific basis for the development and refinement of regional ecological construction plans.

Evaluating water quality of rock glacier outflows in the Western Alps, Italy: a regional perspective.

Intact rock glaciers (RG) are considered valuable water storage because containing permafrost ice volumes. The hydrological relevance of RG is forecasted to increase with respect to glaciers under climate change scenarios, as well as RG's role as water resources in alpine basins for multiple uses. Besides the assessment of water amount stored in intact rock glaciers, the evaluation of water quality is of primary importance. Here, we present the results of a chemical survey performed on five outflows from intact RG in 2020-2023 in the Piedmont region, Western Alps, Italy, along a latitudinal gradient and in different geological settings. The survey aimed to assess the water quality of RG outflows based on chemical indicators (major ions, nutrients, trace metals). Sampling and analyses were performed according to standard methods for freshwater samples, paying specific attention to the analytical quality and consistency of the data. We considered seasonal and interannual variability of the main chemical variables and the possible effects of RG outflows on the chemistry of lakes and ponds located in proximity to the RG. All the investigated sites were characterized by low to moderate ion content, low nutrients, and trace metals close to or below the detection limit, indicating a good water quality status. Results suggested lithology as the main factor affecting the chemical composition of RG outflows. The results of this study indicate it is advisable to develop shared protocols and joint monitoring programs for data collecting at RG outflow sites all over the Alps, possibly integrating chemical and biological indicators, with the final aim of monitoring the water quality of these valuable resources and its temporal evolution under climate change.

Potential impact of climate change on water productivity and water footprints of rice and wheat in the Indo-Gangetic plains of India.

Agriculture faces a significant problem as a result of the decline in per capita freshwater supply that has been observed over the past couple of decades. Better water management strategies are required in order to make agriculture water secure, environmentally sustainable, and economically attractive. The goal of this study was to develop water productivity scenarios for rice and wheat crops in India's Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP) by analysing agricultural production from the perspective of water consumption. To pinpoint the areas that are hydrologically suitable for growing rice and wheat crops under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate change scenarios, water footprints and water productivity have been mapped. The study found that changes in temperature trends under future climate scenarios are probably going to increase crop water requirements, leading to greater water footprints for IGP regions. Water risk hotspots have been identified in the IGP for the rice- and wheat-growing states of Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, and Haryana. In order to achieve food security in a sustainable way, attention should be given to increase the water productivity of both crops.

Metabolic strategies in hypoxic plants.

Complex multicellular organisms have evolved in an oxygen-enriched atmosphere. Oxygen is therefore essential for all aerobic organisms including plants, for energy production through cellular respiration. However, plants can experience hypoxia following extreme flooding events and also under aerated conditions in proliferative organs or tissues characterized by high oxygen consumption. When oxygen availability is compromised, plants adopt different strategies to cope with hypoxia and limited aeration. A common feature among different plant species is the activation of an anaerobic fermentative metabolism to provide adenosine triphosphate (ATP) to maintain cellular homeostasis under hypoxia. Fermentation also requires many sugar substrates, which is not always feasible, and alternative metabolic strategies are thus needed. Recent findings have also shown that the hypoxic metabolism is also active in specific organs or tissues of the plant under aerated conditions. Here, we describe the regulatory mechanisms that control the metabolic strategies of plants and how they enable them to thrive despite challenging conditions. A comprehensive mechanistic understanding of the genetic and physiological components underlying hypoxic metabolism should help to provide opportunities to improve plant resilience under the current climate change scenario.

Impact of Solar Radiation Management on Andean glacier-wide surface mass balance

Solar Radiation Management (SRM) is a climate intervention strategy aimed at mitigating global warming by reducing incoming solar radiation. We investigate the potential influence of SRM on Andean glacier-wide surface mass balance, as glaciers are crucial for downstream ecological functions along the west coast of South America. We numerically simulate the surface mass balance response of thousands of glaciers to SRM and other climate change scenarios throughout the 21st century. Results indicate Pan-Andean negative mass balance, irrespective of the scenario or glacier-climate regimes. However, SRM tends to modify interannual variability and temperature sensitivity in several regions. Our findings also suggest that if SRM had been implemented in the late 1980’s, it would have been effective in avoiding the negative trajectory seen today. The Andes feature nearly all mountain hydroclimatic regimes, representing a globally relevant example of SRM impacts. These findings emphasize the urgency of drastic emissions reduction.

Seven Decades of Surface Temperature Changes in Central European Lakes: What Is Next?

Lakes are vital components of the hydrosphere, holding both environmental and economic significance. In recent times, they have undergone transformations in one of their key characteristics—water temperature. Assessing the scale and pace of these changes depends on the length and accuracy of the available data. This study focuses on the two lakes in Poland (Białe Augustowskie and Studzieniczne) with the longest continuous water temperature records, ranging from 1954 to 2023. The results reveal a relatively stable thermal regime until the late 1980s (with changes that were statistically insignificant) and a significant shift over the past three decades, during which the water temperature increased at a rate of 0.5 °C per decade. Importantly, simulations indicate further warming of the water by the end of the 21st century. Depending on the chosen climate change scenario, the warming of both lakes is expected to continue, with the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP585) scenario projecting a steady increase of 0.5 °C per decade. Given the fundamental importance of water temperature in determining factors such as water quality, these future changes present a significant challenge for water management authorities in terms of maintaining and managing these ecosystems.

The scion-driven transcriptomic changes guide the resilience of grafted near-isohydric grapevines under water deficit

Abstract The large diversity of grapevine cultivars includes genotypes more tolerant to water deficit than others. Widely distributed cultivars, like Merlot, are more sensitive to water deprivation than local cultivars like Callet, which are more adapted to water deficit due to their Mediterranean origin. Despite their tolerance, adaptation to water deficit influenced by grafting in rootstocks like 110 Richter is key to facing drought in vineyards, defining the scion/rootstock relationship. To understand these differences, we explored transcriptomic, metabolic, hormonal and physiological responses under three levels of water deficit (mild, high and extreme), using 110 Richter as the rootstock in both cultivars. Results revealed that sensitivity to ABA is essential for water deficit tolerance in the aerial part, guiding root responses. Callet/110 Richter activates more gene expression patterns in response to ABA, reducing water loss compared to Merlot/110 Richter in both aerial and root parts. This modulation in Callet/110 Richter involves regulating metabolic pathways to increase cell turgor, reducing photosynthesis, and producing molecules like polyphenols or flavonoids to respond to oxidative stress. In contrast, Merlot/110 Richter shows a lack of specific response, especially in the roots, indicating less resilience to water stress. Therefore, selecting genotypes more sensitive to ABA and their interaction with rootstocks is key for managing vineyards in future climate change scenarios.

Analyzing the distribution patterns and dynamic niche of Magnolia grandiflora L. in the United States and China in response to climate change.

Magnolia grandiflora L. (southern magnolia) is native to the southeastern coastal areas of the United States, from North Carolina to eastern Texas (USDA Cold Hardiness Zone 8). It is currently widely cultivated in Zones 5-10 in the U.S. and in southern Yangtze River regions in China. Limited studies have examined the effects of climate change and human activities on the geographical distribution and adaptability of M. grandiflora during its introduction to China. We selected 127 occurrence points in the U.S. and 87 occurrence points in China, along with 43 environmental variables, to predict suitable habitat areas for M. grandiflora using present climate data (1970-2000) and projected future climate data (2050-2070) based on a complete niche ensemble model (EM) using the Biomod2 package. We also predicted the niche change of M. grandiflora in both countries using the 'ecospat' package in R. The ensemble models demonstrated high reliability, with an AUC of 0.993 and TSS of 0.932. Solar radiation in July, human impact index, and precipitation of the wettest month were identified as the most critical variables influencing M. grandiflora distribution. The species shows a similar trend of distribution expansion under climate change scenarios in both countries, with predicted expansions towards the northwest and northeast, and contractions in southern regions. Our study emphasizes a practical framework for predicting suitable habitats and migration of Magnoliaceae species under climate change scenarios. These findings provide valuable insights. for species conservation, introduction, management strategies, and sustainable utilization of M. grandiflora.