Scenario Mapping Research Articles

Will cinereous vulture (Aegypius monachus L.) become extinct in the forests of Türkiye in the future?

Changing climate conditions and different climate scenarios on a global scale are associated with the shrinkage, fragmentation and even extinction of habitats of important bird species. Based on this, the aim is to conduct habitat suitability modelling and mapping of the cinereous vulture (Aegypius monachus), which has the largest body among the four different vulture species in the world, under the circumstances of climate change in Türkiye. MaxEnt method was performed to reveal the current habitat suitability model of the cinereous vulture, which is an indicator of old and high-quality black pine forests in terms of biological diversity in Türkiye. It was determined that the variables contributing to the current habitat suitability model of the cinereous vulture were bedrock, isothermality, landform classification and seasonal precipitation. Chelsa climate scenarios (SSP126-SSP370-SSP585) for the year 2100 were used to reveal the effects of changing climate conditions on the cinereous vulture. Mapping results according to different scenarios were classified as 0.5 – unsuitable, 0.51-0.8 – suitable and 0.81-1.0 – the most suitable habitat. According to the mapping results based on different year and scenarios, cinereous vulture has suitable habitat in a minimum of 16.13% of the study area in the present state, 13.95% in the year 2100 in the SPP126 climate scenario, 10.11% in the SPP370 climate scenario and 7.36% in the SPP585climate scenario. As a result, when the 2100 SSP585 climate scenario mapping was compared to the current habitat suitability mapping, it was determined that habitat suitability for the cinereous vulture decreased by approximately 55%. Therefore, these results will be a source of information to prevent the extinction of the cinereous vulture, in order to protect its current and potential distributions in advance, and to reduce the impact of changing climate conditions.

A Review of the Multi-Stakeholder Process for Salmon Recovery and Scenario Mapping onto Stability Landscapes

A Review of the Multi-Stakeholder Process for Salmon Recovery and Scenario Mapping onto Stability Landscapes

Scenario mapping for critical infrastructure failure under typhoon rainfall: A dependency and causality approach

The critical infrastructure system exhibits a high degree of instability because of the frequent occurrence of extreme natural disasters. This study proposes a method for exploring the cascading failures of critical infrastructure systems under such impacts, based on dependency relationships for importance analysis and probability assessment. With this method, a cascading failure scenario graph of critical infrastructure is established and empirical research is conducted using typhoon rainfall events as a case study. The main contributions of this study are summarized as follows: it proposes a method for the causal identification of the interrelationships among critical infrastructures; it sorts and evaluates the importance and cascading failure probability of critical infrastructure by using the Interpretative Structural Modeling (ISM) and Rank-order Centroid method (ROC); and it generates scenario graphs of critical infrastructure cascading failures to visualize event states, environmental characteristics, and evolutionary paths. This study provides a new method and tool for disaster risk management of complex systems involved in critical infrastructure.

Para-diplomacy's Role in Central Asian Transboundary Water Cooperation: An Assessment of Subnational Actors

This paper aims at identifying how Para diplomacy influences the Transboundary Water Cooperation in Central Asia with a special reference to the non-state and sub-state actors. This research aims at finding out what para diplomacy is, why it is done, the benefits and the risks associated with doing para diplomacy especially in managing the shared water resources. The research method used in the study combines the scenario mapping, typology analysis, and comparative case studies in order to obtain data from the Central Asian context. Thus, the reason for the findings is to increase an understanding of the Para diplomacy enhancement of transboundary water security.

Applying a User Centred Design Approach to Optimise a Workplace Initiative for Wide-Scale Implementation.

Translation of an effective research intervention into a program able to be implemented in practice typically requires adaptations to ensure the outcomes can be achieved within the applied setting. User centred design (UCD) methodologies can support these iterative adaptations, with this approach being particularly well suited to peer-led interventions, due to a focus on usability. We describe and reflect on the UCD approach that was applied to optimise an online, peer-led workplace health promotion initiative (BeUpstanding: ACTRN12617000682347) to be suitable for wide-scale implementation and evaluation. Optimisation was aligned against the indicators of the RE-AIM (reach, effectiveness, adoption, implementation, maintenance) framework, with UCD methodologies (discovery interviews, persona and scenario mapping, facilitated workshops, surveys and prototyping) employed to enhance the program according to all RE-AIM dimensions. The core team (content experts, implementation scientist, interaction designer, software developer, business developer) worked closely with policy and practice partners and end users (workplace champions, management and staff) to iteratively develop and test across the RE-AIM indicators. This description and reflection of the process of applying UCD and the RE-AIM framework to the optimisation of BeUpstanding is intended to provide guidance for other behaviour change research adaptations into practice.

Fuzzy Cognitive Scenario Mapping for Causes of Cybersecurity in Telehealth Services.

Hospital organizations have adopted telehealth systems to expand their services to a portion of the Brazilian population with limited access to healthcare, mainly due to the geographical distance between their communities and hospitals. The importance and usage of those services have recently increased due to the COVID-19 state-level mobility interventions. These services work with sensitive and confidential data that contain medical records, medication prescriptions, and results of diagnostic processes. Understanding how cybersecurity impacts the development of telehealth strategies is crucial for creating secure systems for daily operations. In the application reported in this article, the Fuzzy Cognitive Maps (FCMs) translated the complexity of cybersecurity in telehealth services into intelligible and objective results in an expert-based cognitive map. The tool also allowed the construction of scenarios simulating the possible implications caused by common factors that affect telehealth systems. FCMs provide a better understanding of cybersecurity strategies using expert knowledge and scenario analysis, enabling the maturation of cybersecurity in telehealth services.

Forecast probability, lead time and farmer decision-making in rice farming systems in Northern Ghana

Rice farmers in Northern Ghana are susceptible to climate variability and change with its effects in the form of drought, water scarcity, erratic rainfall and high temperatures. In response, farmers resort to weather and seasonal forecast to manage uncertainties in decision-making. However, there is limited empirical research on how forecast lead time and probabilities influence farmer decision-making. In this study, we posed the overall question: how do rice farmers respond to forecast information with different probabilities and lead times? We purposively engaged 36 rice farmers (12 rainfed, 12 irrigated and 12 practising both) in Visually Facilitated Scenario Mapping Workshops (VFSMW) to explore how probabilities and lead times inform their decision-making. Results of the VFSMW showed rainfed rice farmers are most sensitive to forecast probabilities because of their over-reliance on rainfall. Also, an increase in forecast probability does not necessarily mean farmers will act. The decision to act based on forecast probability is dependent on the stage of the farming cycle. Also, seasonal forecast information provided at a 1 month lead time significantly informed farmer decision-making compared to a lead time of 2 or 3 months. Also, weather forecast provided at a lead time of 1 week is more useful for decision-making than at a 3 day or 1 day lead time. We conclude that communicating forecast information with their probabilities and at an appropriate lead time has the potential to help farmers manage risks and improve decision-making. We propose that climate services in Northern Ghana should aim at communicating weather and seasonal climate forecast information at 1 week and 1 month lead times respectively. Farmers should also adapt their decisions to the timing and probabilities of the forecast provided.

Team effectiveness evaluation and virtual reality scenario mapping model for helicopter emergency rescue

The application of helicopter emergency rescue is becoming increasingly widespread, but the flight crew training in this area is still difficult due to high cost and risk. Nevertheless, with the development of Virtual Reality (VR) technology, virtual simulation has become a significant role in crew training of helicopter rescue. During the implementation of VR-based training, how to transform complex real tasks into VR scenarios and how to evaluate the performance of crew are of great importance. To address these issues, a novel VR-based R-E-A-D (Report, Evaluate, Agree, Do) evaluation model for training is proposed, which is suitable for complex missions with multiple tasks, multiple scenarios, and multiple people. Then, a mapping method of VR scenarios is put forward, which can transform the real tasks into virtual scenarios to serve the virtual simulation training. Finally, an experiment is carried out to verify the feasibility of the evaluation method and virtual scenario mapping method.

Exploring the Strategic Role of Infrastructural Choices on Manufacturing Performance: Evidence from Kenya Sugar Sector

Technological developments in the sugar manufacturing sector require that the managers of these manufacturing firms devise strategies and make astute infrastructural choices in order to ensure survival, growth and improve manufacturing performance of the firm. This requires manufacturing firms to devise manufacturing technological advancements, frequent innovations, as well as rapid developments in their infrastructural capacities. The purpose of the study was to explore the strategic role of infrastructural choices in supporting manufacturing performance of sugar manufacturing firms in Kenya. Specifically, the study sought to: assess the effect of work force on performance, examine the effect of policies on performance, to explore the effect of communication on performance, and to determine the effect of innovation on performance of sugar manufacturing firms in Kenya. Anchored on Strategic and Routine Based theories, the study adopted both descriptive and experimental research designs anchored on realism ontology, and used both quantitative and qualitative approach. The unit of analysis was sugar manufacturing plant. The respondents were sought through both purposive and simple random sampling strategies, yielding a sample of 165 respondents. Structured questionnaires and interview schedule were used to collect primary data. Data was processed both descriptively and inferentially using Microsoft Excel 2010 and SPSS version 21. EFA, correlation analysis and regression analysis, were equally used, while qualitative data analysis was done through expert judgment, scenario mapping and critical thinking. The overall study results revealed that infrastructural choices have significant effect on manufacturing performance. Keywords : Infrastructural choices, Decision areas, manufacturing performance. DOI : 10.7176/EJBM/11-28-10 Publication date :October 31 st 2019

A Holistic Framework for Forecasting Transformative AI

In this paper we describe a holistic AI forecasting framework which draws on a broad body of literature from disciplines such as forecasting, technological forecasting, futures studies and scenario planning. A review of this literature leads us to propose a new class of scenario planning techniques that we call scenario mapping techniques. These techniques include scenario network mapping, cognitive maps and fuzzy cognitive maps, as well as a new method we propose that we refer to as judgmental distillation mapping. This proposed technique is based on scenario mapping and judgmental forecasting techniques, and is intended to integrate a wide variety of forecasts into a technological map with probabilistic timelines. Judgmental distillation mapping is the centerpiece of the holistic forecasting framework in which it is used to inform a strategic planning process as well as for informing future iterations of the forecasting process. Together, the framework and new technique form a holistic rethinking of how we forecast AI. We also include a discussion of the strengths and weaknesses of the framework, its implications for practice and its implications on research priorities for AI forecasting researchers.

Interweaving protected areas and productive landscapes in Aotearoa New Zealand: Using design to explore multifunctionality in the Mackenzie Basin

The distinctive form of New Zealand’s protected areas developed out of rapid environmental changes during nineteenth-century colonization practices, and is based on valuing endemic nature as something separate from human culture. This binary division has resulted in a ‘fortress conservation’ approach, which separates protected areas from productive landscapes in ways that can limit their potential. Insight in international approaches offers the possibility to integrate protected areas in multifunctional landscapes and social-ecological systems. This study examines these land-use tensions in the context of the Mackenzie Basin in New Zealand’s South Island, where traditional non-irrigated sheep farming, tourism and newly established irrigated dairy farms compete for influence in the region’s future ecological and aesthetic makeup. The authors consider how landscape architecture design methods of scenario development, programme design, mapping and communication strategies might unsettle current norms that separate protective and productive land uses to achieve more integrated expressions of landscape.

Fuzzy neural network based scenario features extraction and mapping model for crowd evacuation stability analysis

The scenario features of large-scale crowd evacuation are complex and uncertain, leading to difficulties in making intelligent decisions for crowd evacuation stability. Therefore, this paper utilizes a fuzzy neural network method to analyze and extract main crowd scenario features. Subsequently, the stability characteristics as evacuation historical backtracking can be the attributes for evacuation stability judgment. Finally, we can obtain mechanism causes of instability and state evolution law of crowd evacuation, to intervene and guide the large-scale crowd evacuation.

An IoT sensor and scenario survey for data researchers

This work surveys Internet of Things (IoT) experimental research published since 2015. We summarize the IoT state of the art during the last 2 years and extract important data that we apply to enhance the analysis of IoT solutions. The IoT scenario presents a promising universe to data analysis. This raises a number of questions: which are its most popular applications? What is the definition of scale in an IoT application? What sensors are more often used and for what IoT applications? How can a researcher compare IoT scenarios? To investigate these concerns, this survey analyzes 2 years’ worth of contributions made in three main scientific publishers. We focus on IoT experiments that were actually implemented using real equipment within one or more scenarios. Our first contribution is the classification of those IoT scenarios into seven main aspects. Each analyzed research study presents a specific configuration of a scenario’s variables and sensors. Our second main contribution takes place after the scenario mapping phase. We identify as many as 19 common categories of data types in use. The interrelation among the scenarios and the data types from sensors should assist data researchers in understanding current IoT dynamics.

Scenario Map Based Stochastic Unit Commitment

In the power system stochastic unit commitment (SUC) model, the uncertainty and variability of the renewable energy generation, such as wind power, are usually expressed by multiple scenarios. The performance of SUC is driven by how well the selected scenarios represent the stochastic nature, since too few scenarios may lose or distort the uncertainty or variability characteristics, while too many scenarios usually cause computational difficulty. This paper proposes a novel scenario representation method referred to as scenario mapping technology (SMT), which is able to compact large amount of scenarios while preserving the uncertainty and variability features of wind power as much as possible. Specifically, SMT proposes to combine similar wind power generation into a state at each period and contains the possible multiple transitions linking the states in adjacent periods. A novel two-stage SUC model is proposed based on SMT. The numerical results demonstrate a solid improvement of the performance for the SMT-based SUC model on both cost-efficiency and calculation efficiency, compared with traditional two-stage SUC model based on the scenario reduction technique.

Transitions to sustainability in small islands: combining foresight scenarios with multi-criteria analysis to develop viable sustainability strategies in an EOR

ABSTRACTIslands face similar challenges for sustainability as continental areas, but their geographic situation conditions their options for development. However, thanks to their clear geographic boundaries, they are an opportunity to think about sustainability in an integrated way. The objective of the study was to explore from a local (island) and regional (archipelago) perspective strategies for sustainability. ‘Participative foresight scenario mapping’ (PFSM) methodology was used to explore the sustainable future of a small island (Flores Island, Azores, Portugal). The need to acknowledge the limit to growth is a key finding of this article. But the research also allowed us to analyse in depth specific strategies that can be applied to different sectors of activity, the most important being to: improve the quality of local products, diversify the economy and increase self-sufficiency. PFSM succeeded in identifying key themes and facilitating debate around these subjects. These findings can inform sustainable development in other islands or territories sharing similar geographic characteristics.

Influence of Ambiguity on Success of Public Infrastructural Megaprojects in Kenya

The objective of this study was to investigate the influence of ambiguity on success of public infrastructural megaprojects in Kenya. The need for this study arose from the thesis that ambiguity is a key cause of complexity that results in infrastructural megaprojects being delivered over budget, behind schedule, with benefit shortfalls, over and over again. The study was designed as multiple-method research based on virtual constructionist ontology recognizing that complexity is the mid-point between order and disorder. A cross-sectional census survey of completed public infrastructural megaprojects was conducted using two interlinked questionnaires. Quantitative data was analyzed using descriptive and inferential statistics while qualitative data was analyzed using expert judgment, scenario mapping and retrospective sense-making. The projects surveyed majorly utilized fixed price contracts with the outcome of increased delivery within budget than within schedule. The results showed that ambiguity had significant negative influence on process and overall success of public infrastructural megaprojects but had no significant relationship with product and organizational success. Projects in which the client assumed responsibility for cost and schedule risk had higher chances of meeting both cost and schedule objectives. In order to manage the negative effects of ambiguity, we recommend a new perspective to contract design of public infrastructural megaprojects based on complexity science, blending both outcome and behavior-based contracts. Such contracts should ensure that, in the face of ambiguity, the contractors are able to act in the best interest of their clients and that the clients have access to quality Project Management Information Systems.

Exploring the development of a methodology for scenario use: Combining scenario and resource mapping approaches

Scenarios are tools that help managers to identify critical uncertainties and describe possible futures; they typically focus on an organisation's external environment. Scenarios are often used by organisations to explore how their external environment may develop in the future and to consider its impact on their strategy. However, in order to develop strategy, an organisation needs also to consider the internal environment, in terms of its resources and capabilities, such as that presented within the Resource-Based View of the firm (RBV). This paper proposes a novel methodology for enhancing the scenario method through its serial integration with a method from the RBV field, namely that of resource mapping. The methodology provides the ability to support the "rehearsal" of a firm's strategic performance over time by exploring how the firm's resources and capabilities interact with the competitive environment and with the various scenarios. We illustrate our proposed method with an example of its use in a teaching setting by a group of postgraduate students along with a short description of its application within a company. We reflect on the design of the method and the early experiences of using it. The main contribution of the proposed method is that it provides an integrated approach linking scenarios with strategy development and evaluation. The paper ends with suggestions for further research.

OP91 Health Technology Assessment On The Da Vinci Surgical System Using Real World Data In China

INTRODUCTION:The Da Vinci surgical system is classified as a type “A” medical device in China; the procurement plan of which is regulated by the National Health and Family Planning Commission (NHFP). Between 2010 to 2015, there were thirty-four Da Vinci surgical robots purchased, and installed in thirty tertiary public hospitals across the country. In order to generate context-specific evidence and support further capital funding decisions, the NHFP commissioned a Health Technology Assessment (HTA) of Da Vinci surgical robots, with a focus on real use of the technology in those tertiary public hospitals.METHODS:Nine hospitals were selected to collect real word data between 2013 to 2015. Using a cross-sectional survey, data of all robotic surgical cases were collected and described. The unit costs of the robotic surgery were estimated from activity based costing. We also collected cases of prostatectomy (427 versus 421) and hysterectomy (247 versus 105) using the robotic system and laparoscope respectively, and then compared hospital fees and effectiveness during hospitalization. Simulation of the budget impact on health insurance in Shanghai City over the next 5 years was also performed.RESULTS:A full HTA was conducted based on real data from nine public hospitals in the central and eastern region. Based on a systematic review methodology, we appraised evidence on safety, effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of the Da Vinci surgical robot. Data on technology use, clinical management, and pricing and payment were collected through a cross-sectional survey and interviews of hospital managers, surgeons and nurses. We designed a cohort study on cost-effectiveness of Da Vinci-assisted prostatectomy and hysterectomy, comparing Da Vinci-assisted and laparoscopic prostatectomy (427 vs 421) and Da Vinci-assisted and laparoscopic hysterectomy (247 versus 105). Ethics and inequity issues were discussed based on patient interviews. A budget impact analysis was performed based on scenario mapping of promoting Da Vinci-assisted prostatectomy in Shanghai City over a 5-year timeline.CONCLUSIONS:Due to a lack of evidence on long-term clinical effectiveness and high impact on public finances, the Da Vinci robotic robot should not be procured in large numbers in China. For equipment purchasing the government should strengthen regulations and require the public hospitals to collect more evidence.

'Participative foresight scenario mapping': adapting an MCM method to appraise foresight scenarios for the long term sustainable development of a small island

Multi-criteria mapping (MCM) appraisal has been used in projects involving decisions related to specific technologies or policies in risk analysis. In this research, MCM has been adapted for appraising in a participative way holistic scenarios for a small isolated island. The procedural novelty relies on how the scenario building and the criteria selection were undertaken. Two scenarios for Flores Island (Portugal) were developed in a two step process involving, firstly, specialised stakeholders and decision-makers, and secondly, lay citizens. The scenarios aimed at proposing alternative visions of future. This article analyses the methodological aspects of the project (scenario development and MCM interviews). Overall, the methodology proved to be successful in informing preferred futures for Flores. One of the findings was the elevated uncertainty associated with each scenario. The project showed the limits of expert knowledge for the appraisal of multidisciplinary holistic scenarios, contradicting the distinction between expert and lay knowledge holders.

Preparation and Efficiency of the Scenario Mapping Tool for Consensus Building among Stakeholders(<Special Issue>Management of People and Team)

Preparation and Efficiency of the Scenario Mapping Tool for Consensus Building among Stakeholders(<Special Issue>Management of People and Team)