Exploring the development of a methodology for scenario use: Combining scenario and resource mapping approaches

Abstract

Scenarios are tools that help managers to identify critical uncertainties and describe possible futures; they typically focus on an organisation's external environment. Scenarios are often used by organisations to explore how their external environment may develop in the future and to consider its impact on their strategy. However, in order to develop strategy, an organisation needs also to consider the internal environment, in terms of its resources and capabilities, such as that presented within the Resource-Based View of the firm (RBV). This paper proposes a novel methodology for enhancing the scenario method through its serial integration with a method from the RBV field, namely that of resource mapping. The methodology provides the ability to support the "rehearsal" of a firm's strategic performance over time by exploring how the firm's resources and capabilities interact with the competitive environment and with the various scenarios. We illustrate our proposed method with an example of its use in a teaching setting by a group of postgraduate students along with a short description of its application within a company. We reflect on the design of the method and the early experiences of using it. The main contribution of the proposed method is that it provides an integrated approach linking scenarios with strategy development and evaluation. The paper ends with suggestions for further research.