Scenarios In China Research Articles

Mortality burden of diabetes attributable to high temperature and heatwave under climate change scenarios in China

Climate change and diabetes pose the dual challenges to human health, yet there is a lack of evidence regarding future health burden of diabetes attributable to climate change. In this study, we used three-stage analytic strategy to project the heat-related and heatwave-related diabetes deaths by demographic characteristics and regions, during 2010–2100 in 32 major Chinese cities. Under SSP5-8.5 (high carbon emission scenario), heat-related attributable fraction of diabetes mortality is projected to rise from 2.3% (95% empirical confidence interval [eCI]: 1.1%, 3.6%) in the 2010s to 19.2% (95% eCI: 10.2%, 32.5%) in the 2090s, and estimated heatwave-related attributable fractions will increase from 0.8% (95% eCI: 0.6%, 1.0%) in the 2010s to 9.3% (95% eCI: 6.7%, 11.8%) in the 2090s. We projected that the number of heat- and heatwave-related diabetes deaths would increase from 1525 (95% eCI: 759, 2431) and 529 (95% eCI: 382, 668) in the 2010s, to 12,956 (95% eCI: 6861, 21,937) and 6312 (95% eCI: 4557, 7972) in the 2090s, respectively. Under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP3-7.0 (lower carbon emissions), we projected much lower future heat- and heatwave-related diabetes mortality burdens. Our findings might provide new insights for the development of protecting patients with diabetes from increasing temperature.

Symbolic Bureaucratic Representation and Client Cooperation: Experimental Insights From Four Daily Public Service Scenarios in China

ABSTRACTRepresentative bureaucracy studies have explored the potential impact of symbolic representation on clients' attitudes and behaviors, even in the absence of direct action by bureaucrats. Through four original conjoint experiments conducted with a nationally representative sample of 1600 participants in China, we analyze the symbolic representation effects of five most commonly observable identity signals, including gender, age, accent, party affiliation, and human voice (versus AI chatbot), across two types of bureaucrat‐initiated contacts and two types of client‐initiated contacts. Our findings contribute to the existing literature by demonstrating that identity congruence has heterogeneous symbolic representation effects; clients' expectations about active representation serve as a significant mediating factor influencing their willingness to cooperate with bureaucrats.

A dataset of 0.05-degree leaf area index in China during 1983–2100 based on deep learning network

Leaf Area Index (LAI) is a critical parameter in terrestrial ecosystems, with high spatial resolution data being extensively utilized in various research studies. However, LAI data under future scenarios are typically only available at 1° or coarser spatial resolutions. In this study, we generated a dataset of 0.05° LAI (F0.05D-LAI) from 1983–2100 in a high spatial resolution using the LAI Downscaling Network (LAIDN) model driven by inputs including air temperature, relative humidity, precipitation, and topography data. The dataset spans the historical period (1983–2014) and future scenarios (2015–2100, including SSP-126, SSP-245, SSP-370, and SSP-585) with a monthly interval. It achieves high accuracy (R² = 0.887, RMSE = 0.340) and captures fine spatial details across various climate zones and terrain types, indicating a slightly greening trend under future scenarios. F0.05D-LAI is the first high-resolution LAI dataset and reveals the potential vegetation variation under future scenarios in China, which benefits vegetation studies and model development in earth and environmental sciences across present and future periods.

Assessment of green hydrogen production by volatile renewable energy under different SSPs scenarios in China

In the context of increasing global concerns about climate change and sustainable energy, the production of green hydrogen (GH) from volatile renewable energy (VRE) sources, such as solar and wind, is a natural choice for China to meet its climate change mitigation goals. However, there are a number of challenges in current research on the assessment of green hydrogen potential. This study evaluates the potential of GH production through VRE at the regional level in China, under the various scenarios of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). For this purpose, a power generation prediction model suitable for VRE is proposed to predict the energy supply capacity for GH production in six regions of China, which combined Multilevel Discrete Wavelet Decomposition and Bi-directional Long Short-Term Memory with attention mechanism (MDWD - AMBiLSTM). The total amount of GH could potentially reach up to 428.01 Mt under the SSP1, with the northern region leading at the regional level at 104.21 Mt. Furthermore, the study evaluated the potential for GH promotion in six regions of China between 2023 and 2035 b y combining the three dimensions of GH production potential, economic evaluation, and environmental contribution. This study tentative identify priority areas and development scenarios for promoting GH production in China, and made policy recommendations for the promotion of green hydrogen in disparate areas.

Co-Benefits of Antimicrobial Resistance Mitigation from China’s PM2.5 Air Pollution Reduction Between 2014–2020

The One Health concept acknowledges the importance of multiple dimensions in controlling antimicrobial resistance (AMR). However, our understanding of how anthropological, socioeconomic, and environmental factors drive AMR at a national level remains limited. To explore associations between potential contributing factors and AMR, this study analyzed an extensive database comprising 13 major antibiotic-resistant bacteria and over 30 predictors (e.g., air pollution, antibiotic usage, economy, husbandry, public services, health services, education, diet, climate, and population) from 2014 to 2020 across China. The multivariate analysis results indicate that fine particulate matter with a diameter of 2.5 μm or less (PM2.5) is associated with AMR, accounting for 12% of the variation, followed by residents’ income (10.3%) and antibiotic usage density (5.1%). A reduction in PM2.5 of 1 µg·m−3 is linked to a 0.17% decrease in aggregate antibiotic resistance (p < 0.001, R2 = 0.74). Under different scenarios of China’s PM2.5 air-quality projections, we further estimated the premature death toll and economic burden derived from PM2.5-related antibiotic resistance in China until 2060. PM2.5-derived AMR is estimated to cause approximately 27 000 (95% confidence interval (CI): 6468–48 830) premature deaths and about 0.51 (0.12–0.92) million years of life lost annually in China, equivalent to an annual welfare loss of 8.4 (2.0–15.0) billion USD. Implementing the “Ambitious Pollution 1.5 ℃ Goals” scenario to reduce PM2.5 concentrations could prevent roughly 14 000 (3324–26 320) premature deaths—with a potential monetary value of 9.8 (2.2–17.6) billion USD—from AMR by 2060. These results suggest that reducing air pollution may offer co-benefits in the health and economic sectors by mitigating AMR.

Enhanced Aging of Black Carbon under Recent Clean Air Actions and Future Carbon Neutrality Scenario in China.

China has implemented strict emission control measures, but it is unclear how they affect black carbon (BC) aging and light absorption. Here, we use the Community Atmosphere Model version 6 (CAM6) with the four-mode version of the Modal Aerosol Module coupled with machine learning (MAM4-ML) to simulate BC aging during 2011-2018 and 2050/2100 following a carbon neutrality scenario (SSP1-2.6), respectively. During 2011-2018, the mass ratio of coatings to BC (RBC) widely increased (5.4% yr-1) over the east of China. The increased secondary organic aerosol (SOA) coatings dominate (88%) the increased RBC, while the sulfate coatings decrease. The drivers of BC coating changes come from the different magnitudes of emission reductions in secondary aerosol precursors (i.e., volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and SO2) and BC. During 2011-2018, the increased RBC enhances the BC mass absorption cross section (MAC, 0.7% yr-1). In 2050/2100 for SSP1-2.6, emission control leads to further increased RBC (95/145%) and BC MAC (12/17%). For both 2011-2018 and 2050/2100, the enhanced BC MAC partly offsets the declining direct radiative effect (DRE) of BC due to direct emission reduction. As a result, the full impact of direct emission reductions of BC on BC DRE is only 75% for 2011-2018 and 90/94% for 2050/2100.

Evaluation of the EUROSEM on soil erosion simulation for loess plateau, northern China

AbstractThe Loess Plateau region features fragmented landforms, sparse vegetation, and short but intense summer rainstorms that can easily cause severe soil erosion. To evaluate its applicability to a typical Loess Plateau in northern China, an indoor laboratory experimental study was conducted for events with different slope lengths (3, 4, and 5 m) and rainfall intensities (50, 60, 70, 80, 90, 100, 110, and 120 mm/h). EUROSEM (European Soil Erosion Model) was used to simulate the soil erosion process and predict both total runoff and sediment yield. The EUROSEM modeling results were compared with the observed experimental values and analysed to determine the performance of EUROSEM. The results and analysis showed that EUROSEM could effectively simulate the runoff processes. It produced better predictions for the total runoff yield than for the sediment yield, with Nash–Sutcliffe efficiencies of 0.9003 and 0.1820, respectively. The qualified rates of the RE (relative error) between simulated and observed values of the total runoff and sediment yield were 87.5% and 37.5%, respectively. Compared to the sediment yield under rainfall intensities of 50–80 mm/h, those under 90–110 mm/h had lower RE and higher NSE, which increased from −3.9 to 0.5. However, the modeling results deviated more from the experimental data at a rainfall intensity of 120 mm/h. According to this study, EUROSEM is a good fit for simulating the runoff and partial sediment yield processes of the Loess Plateau region's slopes. However, the accurate prediction of sediment yield still requires more research to achieve complete effectiveness using EUROSEM for typical and wide scenarios in China.

Potential of Growing Energy Crops and Then Producing Liquid Fuels in Marginal Land: A China Scenario

To explore the potential of growing energy crops and then producing liquid fuels in marginal land in China, in this paper, the status quo of existing biomass resources and marginal land utilization in China have been first analyzed and the development process of biomass liquid fuels has then been reviewed. Secondly, using ethyl levulinate (EL) as our research subject, the production capacity of growing energy crops in marginal land and their potential to prepare liquid fuels have been explored. Finally, the problems in developing marginal land have been summarized, and proposed policy recommendations for marginal land development, energy crop cultivation, and liquid fuel development suitable for Chinese conditions. The results showed that the potential of sweet sorghum, cassava, jatropha curcas, and switchgrass cultivation in China in producing is 75.76 million tonnes, 1.52 million tonnes, 4.57 million tonnes, and 5.16 million tonnes, respectively. Among these crops, sweet sorghum and switch grass have a higher production capacity and are more suitable to be planted on marginal land and used to produce liquid fuels. The planting of these two crops has absorbed about a 111.11 million tonnes and 7.57 million tonnes of carbon dioxide (CO2), respectively, presenting significant carbon sequestration and oxygen-producing effects, which provides a theoretical basis for the analysis of land use change.

Predicting the potential risks posed by antidepressants as emerging contaminants in fish based on network pharmacological analysis

This study conducted a network pharmacology-based analysis to simultaneously discern a broad spectrum of potential environmental risks and health effects of antidepressants, a common class of pharmaceutical emerging contaminants (PECs) possessing a complex pharmacological profile, and in silico predict the adverse phenotypes potentially occurring in fish associated with exposure to antidepressants and their mixtures under realistic exposure scenarios. Results showed that 24 of the included 39 antidepressants had been detected worldwide in water environment across 50 countries. Using the environmentally realistic exposure scenario for China as an example, the predicted blood concentrations of antidepressant residues that were generated based on the Fish Plasma Model ranged from 37.89 (Alprazolam) to 16,772.05 (Sertraline) ng/L in exposed fish. Hazard-based bioactivity network without regard to concentration data was composed of 148 potential targets and 701 antidepressant-target interactions. After filtering each antidepressant-target interaction node using the predicted drug concentrations in the blood of fish under realistic exposure scenarios in China, an environmental risk-based network was refined and showed that 11 targets, including muscarinic acetylcholine receptor M1, alpha-2B adrenergic receptor, serotonin 2 A receptor, etc. might be modulated by antidepressants at concentrations equal to or below the environmental exposure levels and their mixtures in fish. Environmentally relevant concentrations of antidepressants in water samples from China might perturb the behavior, stress response, phototaxis, and development in exposed fish.

Forecasting the Expansion of Bactrocera tsuneonis (Miyake) (Diptera: Tephritidae) in China Using the MaxEnt Model.

The invasive pest, Bactrocera tsuneonis (Miyake), has become a significant threat to China's citrus industry. Predicting the area of potentially suitable habitats for B. tsuneonis is essential for optimizing pest control strategies that mitigate its impact on the citrus industry. Here, existing distribution data for B. tsuneonis, as well as current climate data and projections for four future periods (2021-2040, 2041-2060, 2061-2080, and 2081-2100) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) were obtained. The distribution of B. tsuneonis under current and different climate change scenarios in China was predicted using the optimized MaxEnt model, ArcGIS, and the ENMeval data package. Model accuracy was assessed using ROC curves, and the primary environmental factors influencing the distribution of the pest were identified based on the percent contribution. When the regularization multiplier (RM) was set to 1.5 and the feature combination (FC) was set to LQH, a model with lower complexity was obtained. Under these parameter settings, the mean training AUC was 0.9916, and the mean testing AUC was 0.9854, indicating high predictive performance. The most influential environmental variables limiting the distribution of B. tsuneonis were the Precipitation of Warmest Quarter (Bio18) and Temperature Seasonality (standard deviation ×100) (Bio4). Under current climatic conditions, potentially suitable habitat for B. tsuneonis in China covered an area of 215.9 × 104 km2, accounting for 22.49% of the country's land area. Potentially suitable habitat was primarily concentrated in Central China, South China, and East China. However, under future climatic projections, the area of suitable habitat for B. tsuneonis exhibited varying degrees of expansion. Furthermore, the centroid of the total suitable habitat for this pest gradually shifted westward and northward. These findings suggest that B. tsuneonis will spread to northern and western regions of China under future climate changes. The results of our study indicate that climate change will have a major effect on the invasion of B. tsuneonis and have implications for the development of strategies to control the spread of B. tsuneonis in China.

Water scarcity footprint and water saving potential for large-scale green hydrogen generation: Evidence from coal-to-hydrogen substitution in China

Green hydrogen generated via water electrolysis using photovoltaics or wind has begun to scale up in the process of achieving the global net-zero goal, but there is a lack of research on its impact on the scarcity of water resources and water saving potential. A water resources impact assessment framework for green hydrogen scale-up development is established, integrating the product water footprint and regional water footprint scarcity impacts and advancing the study of the water resources impacts on green hydrogen from water conservation as well as from a sustainable context. The research framework specifies the cradle-to-gate life cycle water consumption of hydrogen production, establishes the water scarcity footprint based on the available water remaining (AWARE) model, quantifies the water saving intensity and potential of the green hydrogen alternative to traditional hydrogen production, and proposes quantitative indicators of the water saving benefit. Taking the regions of 31 provinces in China as a case study, the wind-to‑hydrogen scenario and the solar-to‑hydrogen scenario will generate approximately 68.86×108 m3 and 126.10×108 m3 water scarcity footprints, respectively. Under the coal-to‑hydrogen baseline scenario, approximately 1.68×108 m3 and - 0.57×108 m3 of water saving potential will be generated. In addition, the water saving intensity decreases from west to east. According to the adjusted quantitative indicators of water saving benefits, the wind-to‑hydrogen scenario in China can reach 40.22×108 m3eq and the water saving benefit is more obvious in northern regions such as Hebei, Ningxia and Inner Mongolia. The methodological framework can be applied to other countries or regions to assess the sustainable impacts of green hydrogen production on water resources in a given region.

Decarbonizing prefabricated building waste: Scenario simulation of policies in China

Compared to cast-in-situ construction, prefabricated construction reduces the generation of construction waste; however, construction waste cannot be entirely eliminated through prefabrication and can be generated at each stage of its life cycle. This paper generates a system dynamics model, comprising two causal-loop diagrams and one stock-flow diagram, to simulate the effectiveness of policies on decarbonizing prefabricated concrete building waste. The model can predict the annual and total construction waste, along with the associated carbon emissions, under different policy scenarios in China by 2030. This paper focuses on prefabricated concrete buildings in China, with specific attention to the wastage of concrete, bricks, mortar, and metal. In single-factor scenario simulations, increasing landfilling fee is the most effective policy for waste decarbonization, potentially reducing carbon emissions by 31%. Increasing prefabrication rate and enhancing regulation degree at the design phase of prefabrication can directly reduce prefabricated building waste generation, subsequently resulting in an 18% and 7% carbon emissions reduction. Multi-factor scenario simulations demonstrate that the simultaneous application of all four policies is most effective, achieving a 44% reduction in carbon emissions. This research establishes a theoretical framework for prefabricated concrete building waste management and provides the Chinese government with practical insights on optimizing policies for waste decarbonization in the dynamic landscape of prefabrication.

China's environmental tax reform achieves the co-management of carbon and haze: The role of optimizing energy utilization

Environmental tax reform in China is an essential initiative to achieve carbon and haze co-management by shifting the Environmental Fee to Tax (EFT). Therefore, we employ a Coupling Coordination Degree (CCD) model to measure the level of carbon and haze co-management across three distinct scenarios in China. Treating the EFT policy as a quasi-natural experiment, the study explores its impact on carbon and haze co-management using data of 282 prefecture-level cities in China during 2015–2020. Furthermore, the study further analyzes the regional heterogeneity and the transmission mechanisms of optimizing energy utilization. The principal findings of this investigation are as follows. First, the co-management levels of carbon and haze in China show a discernible upward trend from 2015 to 2020. A heightened emphasis on carbon reduction is helpful in improving the co-management level of carbon and haze. Co-management levels of carbon and haze are lower within the treatment group compared to the control group, but their growth rates are higher. Second, the EFT policy in China has significantly enhanced the co-management level of carbon and haze. Third, the impact of China's EFT policy has a more pronounced effect in western China and a comparatively weaker effect in middle China, which may be attributed to variations in industrial infrastructure, supporting facilities, availability of clean energy resources, and prevailing policy inclinations across different regions of China. Finally, China's EFT policy is an instrumental factor in augmenting the co-management level of carbon and haze, primarily through pathways of upgrading energy structure and improving energy efficiency.

Prediction of the Potential Distribution of Teinopalpus aureus Mell, 1923 (Lepidoptera, Papilionidae) in China Using Habitat Suitability Models

The Golden Kaiser-I-Hind (Teinopalpus aureus Mell, 1923) is the only butterfly among Class I national protected animals in China and is known as the national butterfly. In this study, by accurately predicting the suitable habitat in China under current and future climate scenarios, the potential distribution area of T. aureus was defined, providing a theoretical basis for conservation and management. Based on species distribution records, we utilized the Biomod2 platform to combine climate data from the BCC-CSM2-MR climate model, future shared socio-economic pathways, and altitude data. The potential distribution areas of T. aureus in the current (1970–2000s) and future SSP1_2.6 and SSP5_8.5 climate scenarios in China in 2041–2060 (2050s), 2061–2080 (2070s), and 2081–2100 (2090s) were predicted. The AUC and TSS values of the combined model based on five algorithms were greater than those of the single models, and the AUC value of the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.990, indicating that the model had high reliability and accuracy. The screening of environmental variables showed that the habitat area of T. aureus in China was mainly affected by annual precipitation, precipitation in the driest month, the lowest temperature in the coldest month, temperature seasonality, elevation, and other factors. Under the current circumstances, the habitat area of T. aureus was mainly located in southern China, including Fujian, Guangdong, Guangxi, Hainan, Zhejiang, Yunnan, Guizhou, Hunan, Taiwan, and other provinces. The suitable area is approximately 138.95 × 104 km2; among them, the highly suitable area of 34.43 × 104 km2 is a priority area in urgent need of protection. Under both SSP1_2.6 and SSP5_8.5, the population centroid tended to shift southward in the 2050s and 2070s, and began to migrate northeast in the 2090s. Temperature, rainfall, and altitude influenced the distribution of T. aureus. In the two climate scenarios, the habitat area of T. aureus declined to different degrees, and the reduction was most obvious in the SSP5_8.5 scenario; climate was the most likely environmental variable to cause a change in the geographical distribution. Climate change will significantly affect the evolution and potential distribution of T. aureus in China and will increase the risk of extinction. Accordingly, it is necessary to strengthen protection and to implement active and effective measures to reduce the negative impact of climate change on T. aureus.

Deriving ecological risk thresholds for soil molybdenum in China based on interspecies correlation estimation and quantitative ion character–activity relationship models

Soil molybdenum (Mo) levels can reach ecologically hazardous levels. China has not yet established the relevant thresholds, posing challenges for environmental management. Therefore, we present our data relevant to Mo toxicity for several important species. By normalizing soil properties, we obtained a correlation model of Mo toxicity to Hordeum vulgare, as well as 31 models for the toxicity of other elements including Cu and Ni to invertebrates and microbial processes. Using interspecies correlation estimation (ICE) extrapolation, the sensitivity coefficient (0.12–0.71) for five plants were found. For invertebrates and microbial processes lacking Mo data, we used regression analysis to establish Mo toxicity models based on the soil quantitative ion character–activity relationships (s–QICAR; R2 =0.70–0.95) and known toxicities of other metal elements to invertebrate and microbial processes. Furthermore, combining species sensitivity distribution calculations, the HC5 values for protecting 95% of soil species from Mo in three typical soil scenarios in China were calculated. After correction, the predicted no-effect concentrations were 6.8, 4.8, and 3.4 mg/kg, respectively. This study innovatively combined ICE and s − QICAR to derive soil Mo thresholds. Our results can provide a basis for decision-making in the assessment and management of soil Mo pollution.

Research on a Biofilter for a Typical Application Scenario in China: Treatment of Pesticide Residue Wastewater in Orchards

To reduce pesticide pollution and promote sustainable agricultural development in China, we designed a pilot-scale biofilter system to treat residual imidacloprid wastewater in an orchard. The biofilter system demonstrated a high rate of removal of imidacloprid from the biodegradation wastewater, with removal rates from the outlet exceeding 99% at different concentrations of pesticides. Among environmental factors, imidacloprid concentration at the inlet and biomixture significantly affected the activity of imidacloprid-degrading bacteria. The dominant microbial communities during the stable operation of the biofilter system included Firmicutes, Actinobacteria, Proteobacteria, and Bacteroidetes at the phylum level and Bacillus, Methylobacter, and unclassified_f__Microbacteriaceae at the genus level. In future initiatives to improve biofilter performance and applicability, increasing attention should be paid to the dominant microbial communities, the number of biofilter units, and important environmental factors. Orchard workers in China should improve the existing treatment of residual pesticide wastewater to mitigate agricultural non-point source pollution.

Forest carbon storage and sink estimates under different management scenarios in China from 2020 to 2100

Forests play a crucial role in mitigating climate change through carbon storage and sequestration, though environmental change drivers and management scenarios are likely to influence these contributions across multiple spatial and temporal scales. In this study, we employed three tree growth models—the Richard, Hossfeld, and Korf models—that account for the biological characteristics of trees, alongside national forest inventory (NFI) datasets from 1994 to 2018, to evaluate the carbon sink potential of existing forests and afforested regions in China from 2020 to 2100, assuming multiple afforestation and forest management scenarios. Our results indicate that the Richard, Hossfeld, and Korf models provided a good fit for 26 types of vegetation biomass in both natural and planted Chinese forests. These models estimate that in 2020, carbon stocks in existing Chinese forests are 7.62 ± 0.05 Pg C, equivalent to an average of 44.32 ± 0.32 Mg C/ ha. Our predictions then indicate this total forest carbon stock is expected to increase to 15.51 ± 0.99 Pg C (or 72.26 ± 4.6 Mg C/ha) in 2060, and further to 19.59 ± 1.36 Pg C (or 91.31 ± 6.33 Mg C/ha) in 2100. We also show that plantation management measures, namely tree species replacement, would increase carbon sinks to 0.09 Pg C/ year (contributing 38.9 %) in 2030 and 0.06 Pg C/ year (contributing 32.4 %) in 2060. Afforestation using tree species with strong carbon sink capacity in existing plantations would further significantly increase carbon sinks from 0.02 Pg C/year (contributing 10.3 %) in 2030 to 0.06 Pg C/year (contributing 28.2 %) in 2060. Our results quantify the role plantation management plays in providing a strong increase in forest carbon sequestration at national scales, pointing to afforestation with native tree species with high carbon sequestration as key in achieving China's 2060 carbon neutrality target.

Unveiling the influence of transparency in risk communication: Shifting from information disclosure to uncertainty reduction

While the importance of government transparency is extensively discussed in risk communication literature, its practical application in risk contexts presents intricate challenges. This study introduces a redefined concept of transparency in the context of risk, covering two dimensions: information disclosure and uncertainty reduction. To investigate the impact of transparency, ranging from mere information disclosure to significant uncertainty reduction, a hierarchical multiple regression model is employed. Specifically, trust in government serves as a benchmark for information disclosure, while indicators for information disclosure strategies and public vulnerability are incorporated into the model as proxies for uncertainty reduction. The proposed model undergoes validation in a city lockdown scenario in China using self-report data from 435 college students, with anxiety serving as a benchmark for transparency outcomes. The findings suggest that indicators of uncertainty reduction (information disclosure strategies, individual vulnerability) exert much larger effects on anxiety than mere information disclosure (indicated by government trust). This implies that government transparency should prioritize uncertainty reduction, involving diverse strategies and addressing public vulnerabilities.

The Role of Social Fairness Perceptions in Farmers’ Continued Participation in Environmental Governance: A China Scenario

The Role of Social Fairness Perceptions in Farmers’ Continued Participation in Environmental Governance: A China Scenario

Investment benefit analysis of coal-to-hydrogen coupled CCS technology in China based on real option approach

As a zero-carbon energy, hydrogen energy is widey recognized as playing an important role in reducing carbon emissions and addressing climate change. Considering the resource and industrial conditions in China, the coal-to-hydrogen coupled with carbon capture and storage (CTHCCS) may be a necessary choice in the early stage of low-carbon hydrogen energy development. This study used real option models to analyze the investment benefits of the representative CTHCCS technology at the national and regional levels in the current and future development scenarios in China, and discusses the impact of uncertainties in carbon price, technological progress, and policy incentives on the CTHCCS investment. The results show that (1) The opportunity for immediate investment in the CTHCCS is not available in China unless the cost of carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology decreases and the carbon price increases significantly. (2) The current CTHCCS investment critical carbon price is 353.3 RMB/t, which will decrease by 45.0%, 73.9% and 57.3% when using the initial investment subsidy, carbon emission reduction subsidy and clean fuel subsidy, respectively. (3) The CTHCCS presents a relatively high investment benefit in Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, and Shaanxi, highlighting that these areas are key pioneers for “blue hydrogen” production in China.