Transition Scenario Research Articles

Designing a macroprudential capital buffer for climate-related risks: an application to transition risk

ABSTRACT This paper investigates macroprudential capital buffers to mitigate systemic transition risks and increase the resilience of the banking sector. Leveraging granular data and state-of-the-art stress testing methods, it quantifies potential bank losses attributed to transition risks. Focusing on short-term transition scenarios, the paper documents a significant variance among banks in their risk exposure, with the most exposed institutions being those characterized by lower excess capital. We introduce a methodological framework for tailoring bank-specific buffer requirements to cover these losses, offering macroprudential authorities a practical method for calibrating climate-related macroprudential capital buffers, complementing microprudential policies. While the focus of this application is on transition risks, the framework can be extended to capture all climate risks in general. The study demonstrates the potential of macroprudential capital buffers to mitigate potential climate-related losses and contributes to the understanding of the appropriate prudential policy response to these challenges.

Design and Archaeology for the Communication of Tangible and Intangible Content Between Real and Digital

In the digital transition scenario, a new culture emerges in which the humanities and scientific disciplines merge and are sometimes contiguous and overlap in terms of expertise, thus opening new lines of research that are strongly interdisciplinary. In the complex process of archaeological research, innovative digital tools define new ways of communicating archaeological contexts through the synergy of technologies, languages and creativity. The paper highlights the dialogue between design and archaeology with reference to the relationship between past and present in the physical-digital space of fruition. In this regard, a reflection on the representation and interpretation of the fragmented nature of archaeological knowledge and the restitution of invisible contexts, artifacts and processes is proposed. This is to foster new configurations by linking physically inaccessible real spaces to usable virtual environments that are enduring over time.

The Missing Link in the Monogermanide Series: YbGe.

High-pressure, high-temperature synthesis at 12 GPa between 750 and 1000 °C for 30 to 300 min yields the last missing rare-earth metal monogermanide, YbGe. Powder and single-crystal X-ray diffraction measurements reveal that the compound crystallizes in a FeB-type structure (space group Pnma, a=7.901(2) Å, b=3.8981(9) Å, and c=5.873(2) Å). The results of the chemical bonding study, while supporting the presence of polyanionic Ge chains interacting with the surrounding Yb through multi-atomic polar bonds, suggest a transitional scenario between the monogermanides formed by alkaline-earth elements and those formed by trivalent rare-earth metals.

Signatures of the speed of sound on the gravitational wave power spectrum from sound waves

Future space-based interferometers offer an unprecedented opportunity to detect signals from the stochastic gravitational wave background originating from a first-order phase transition at the electroweak scale. The phase transition is accompanied by a change of the equation of state from that of pure radiation. In this work we study the effect of this change on the power spectrum of gravitational waves generated by the sound waves in the plasma during the acoustic phase of the transition. We carry out an analytic calculation assuming that the sound speed and the fluid shear-stress that sources tensor perturbations remain approximately constant during the acoustic phase. The effect of a softer equation of state is twofold:(i) a scale-independent suppression of the power spectrum at all scales, due to the modified propagation of both sound and gravitational waves and(ii) the peak of the spectrum moves to smaller frequencies as the equation of state becomes softer.The power-law indices of the spectrum at small and large scales are unaffected by the softening of the equation of state. Our work improves the current estimation of the gravitational waves power spectrum from first order phase transitions and expands the possible scenarios of transitions that can be tested by gravitational wave detectors.

Sustainability assessment of low-impact development methods for urban stormwater management: A multi-criteria decision-making approach

Sustainability assessment of low-impact development methods for urban stormwater management: A multi-criteria decision-making approach

The potential of rooftop photovoltaics to meet Dutch residential electricity demand under heat transition scenarios

The potential of rooftop photovoltaics to meet Dutch residential electricity demand under heat transition scenarios

Transition to synchronization in the adaptive Sakaguchi-Kuramoto model with higher-order interactions.

We investigate the phenomenon of transition to synchronization in the Sakaguchi-Kuramoto model in the presence of higher-order interactions and global order parameter adaptation. The investigation is done by performing extensive numerical simulations and low-dimensional modeling of the system. Numerical simulations of the full system show both continuous (second-order) as well as discontinuous transitions. The discontinuous transitions can either be associated with explosive (first-order) or tiered synchronization states depending on the choice of parameters. To develop an in depth understanding of the transition scenario in the parameter space we derive a reduced order model (ROM) using the Ott-Antonsen ansatz, the results of which closely match with those of the numerical simulations of the full system. The simplicity and analytical accessibility of the ROM help to conveniently unfold the transition scenario in the system having complex dependence on the parameters. Simultaneous analysis of the full system and the ROM clearly identifies the regions of the parameter space exhibiting different types of transitions. It is observed that the second-order transition is connected with a supercritical pitchfork bifurcation (PB) of the ROM. On the other hand, the discontinuous tiered transition is associated with multiple saddle-node (SN) bifurcations along with a supercritical PB and the first-order transition involves a subcritical PB alongside a SN bifurcation. Finally, the stability analysis of the different synchronization states of the system is performed analytically.

Transition route to elastic and elasto-inertial turbulence in polymer channel flows

Viscoelastic shear flows support additional chaotic states beyond simple Newtonian turbulence. In vanishing Reynolds number flows, the nonlinearity in the polymer evolution equation alone can sustain inertialess “elastic” turbulence (ET) while “elasto-inertial” turbulence (EIT) appears to rely on an interplay between elasticity and finite-Re effects. Despite their distinct phenomenology and industrial significance, transition routes and possible connections between these states are unknown. We identify here a common Ruelle-Takens transition scenario for both of these chaotic regimes in two-dimensional direct numerical simulations of FENE-P fluids in a straight channel. The primary bifurcation is caused by a recently discovered “polymer diffusive instability” associated with small but nonvanishing polymer stress diffusion which generates a finite-amplitude, small-scale traveling wave localized at the wall. This is found to be unstable to a large-scale secondary instability which grows to modify the whole flow before itself breaking down in a third bifurcation to either ET or EIT. The secondary large-scale instability waves resemble “center” and “wall” modes, respectively—instabilities which have been conjectured to play a role in viscoelastic chaotic dynamics but were previously only thought to exist far from relevant areas of the parameter space. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

Innovative Cavity Modeling for Centrifugal Compressors Aeromechanical Analysis

Abstract Centrifugal compressor aeromechanics is playing an increasingly important role in the energy transition scenario, especially when operating with low-molecular-weight gases, such as hydrogen. For these machines, maximum impeller tip speeds are limited by structural requirements and so aeromechanical assessment must be included from the preliminary design stages. When performing forced response analysis of centrifugal impellers, it is mandatory to consider the contribution of the unsteady forces acting within front and rear cavities. The flow field inside the cavities has different time and length scales compared with the main flow field, and from a modeling standpoint, seal regions have to be included in the computational domain: this means that a comprehensive computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulation may require substantial efforts for the setup and high computational time and resources. In this context, this article presents an acoustic analytical model for predicting pressure perturbation within centrifugal compressor cavities without solving them with unsteady CFD approaches. The model is fed with appropriate boundary conditions to be applied at the entrance of the cavities and analytically solves the pressure perturbation distribution in an annular environment. To validate the presented analytical model, unsteady calculations were performed on impeller-vaned diffuser domains with cavities at different operating conditions, and the unsteady pressure field in the cavities was used as a target solution. The comparison between the analytical model results and the CFD solution shows a very good agreement for all the different blade passing frequencies under investigation, paving the way for accurate aeromechanical evaluations in the preliminary design phase when complete unsteady CFD simulations are not compatible with design timing.

Energy Transition Planning in Achieving the 2060 Net-Zero Emissions Target in the Electricity Sector of North Sumatra Province

Accessibility, adequacy, and environmental sustainability principles in providing a national electricity supply will become key demands in the coming years. The energy transition from fossil fuel sources to renewable energy is necessary to mitigate the impact of climate change, with projections towards the Net-Zero Emissions target by 2060 in Indonesia. The study aims to model energy transition scenarios, evaluate the optimal renewable energy mix, and determine emission reduction strategies in the electricity sector using LEAP-NEMO software. This study uses a forecasting-based simulation modeling method with a mathematical approach through LEAP software and NEMO optimization framework. Three scenarios were analyzed, namely Business As Usual (BAU), Net Zero Emissions Carbon Capture Storage (NZE CCS), and Net Zero Emissions Full Renewable Energy (NZE FRE). The study results show that by 2060, the NZE FRE scenario can achieve a 100% renewable energy mix, compared to the BAU scenario (42.1%) and the NZE CCS scenario (70.8%). Solar, biomass, hydro, and geothermal energy are projected to be the main sources of electricity generation in the NZE FRE scenario, with solar energy as the largest contributor. The NZE FRE scenario is also proven to be the most effective in reducing greenhouse gas emissions by up to 265.9 million tons of CO₂, or 70.5% of avoidable greenhouse gas emissions, compared to the BAU scenario. Although the cost of the NZE FRE scenario is higher, it can provide lower external impacts and long-term benefits in environmental sustainability.

Вагомість українського внеску у розвиток загальнолюдського економічного надбання (до 100-річчя від дня народження докторки економічних наук, професорки Л.Я. Корнійчук)

The article presents the main milestones of scientific creativity and scientific achievements of Professor L. Korniychuk. The relevance of her works is confirmed by the modern challenges of Russia's hybrid war against Ukraine. The ongoing war presents economic science with its own challenges, because a change in the current socio-economic model is necessary. This, in turn, requires a revision of the modern scientific picture of the world. Problem-personified, epistemological and axiological approaches are used to characterize Ukraine's contribution to the development of world economic science. The connection between the economic school of F. Quesnay, the physical and economic theory of S. Podolynsky and the philosophical system of M. Rudenko has been revealed. On the basis of the analysis of L. Korniychuk’s works, the author shows her scientific biography, the worldview unity and orientation of her research, as well as her teaching and public activities. The Institute of National Economy (now Vadym Hetman Kyiv National University of Economics) and the Department of the History of National Economy and Economic Thought of the Institute of Economics of the Academy of Sciences of the Ukrainian SSR (now the Department of Economic History of the SO «Institute for Economics and Forecasting of the NASU») were important platforms for growth and realization of the researcher's creative potential. The legacy of Ukrainian economic thought contains lists of scenarios of the historical-economic transition from the continental physiocracy to the national scientific school of physical economy. The author reveals the significance of L. Korniychuk's research and publications for the popularization and development of the Ukrainian scientific school of physical economy. Shown the relationship between historical and economic research and physical and economic forecasting.

What Can the COVID-19 Pandemic Tell Us About the Energy Transition? A Nitrogen Dioxide and Ground-Level Ozone Study

The lockdown measures imposed in Lisbon during the COVID-19 pandemic offered an unprecedented opportunity to observe abrupt changes in tropospheric NO2 and O3 concentrations, providing information on air quality improvements in a future dominated by electric vehicles. This study used deweathering modelling to account for meteorological influences in the data, analysing pollution changes throughout the baseline (2016–2019), COVID-19 (2020), recovery (2021), and post-COVID-19 (2022) periods. In summary, significant decreases in NO2 concentrations were observed at both traffic and background locations, with reductions up to 30% during the COVID-19 year. This is similar to what would be expected in an aggressive energy transition scenario. Concentrations of O3 increased by up to 20% at traffic locations; however, background O3 concentrations remained virtually unchanged, indicating that O3 formation is not primarily driven by NO2 but possibly VOC. The findings in this paper suggest that future reductions in NO2 due to vehicle electrification are unlikely to result in considerably high regional O3 concentrations.

Scenarios for energy transition in public transport

The growing global demand for new energy sources and innovative technologies is driven by environmental concerns and the need to address the worldwide energy crisis. The Paris Climate Agreement, also known as the United Nations Climate Change Conference Paris 2015 (COP21), has compelled nations to explore cleaner, more sustainable, and carbon-neutral technologies and products. This commitment was reaffirmed at the 2021 Climate Change Conference (COP26) in Ireland. This study seeks to determine whether the global shift in transportation models from combustion to electric traction holds promise for achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in the Brazilian context, thereby contributing to climate change mitigation. To investigate this, a quantitative field research approach was employed, accompanied by relevant literature references. Key indicators, including urban bus routes in Cascavel, Paraná, Brazil, their average mileage, emissions, and energy efficiency, were examined in comparison to electric buses. The research applied the Life Cycle principle, known as "Well to Wheels," to assess emissions in relation to the bus's propulsion system and energy sources. The findings revealed a remarkable 97.19% reduction in emissions (in gCO2eq/km) when using electricity from the predominantly renewable Brazilian electricity grid. Additionally, a 98.37% reduction in emissions (in gCO2eq/km) was observed when a photovoltaic system served as the energy source. These results underscore the sustainable potential of such systems in addressing the urgent global climate crisis.

Energy systems integration and sector coupling in future ports: A qualitative study of Norwegian ports

Energy systems integration and sector coupling in future ports: A qualitative study of Norwegian ports

Generalization of the Gauss map: A jump into chaos with universal features.

The Gauss map (or continued fraction map) is an important dissipative one-dimensional discrete-time dynamical system that exhibits chaotic behavior, and it generates a symbolic dynamics consisting of infinitely many different symbols. Here we introduce a generalization of the Gauss map, which is given by x_{t+1}=1/x_{t}^{α}-[1/x_{t}^{α}] where α≥0 is a parameter and x_{t}∈[0,1] (t=0,1,2,3,...). The symbol [⋯] denotes the integer part. This map reduces to the ordinary Gauss map for α=1. The system exhibits a sudden "jump into chaos" at the critical parameter value α=α_{c}≡0.241485141808811⋯ which we analyze in detail in this paper. Several analytical and numerical results are established for this new map as a function of the parameter α. In particular, we show that, at the critical point, the invariant density approaches a q-Gaussian with q=2 (i.e., the Cauchy distribution), which becomes infinitely narrow as α→α_{c}^{+}. Moreover, in the chaotic region for large values of the parameter α we analytically derive approximate formulas for the invariant density, by solving the corresponding Perron-Frobenius equation. For α→∞ the uniform density is approached. We provide arguments that some features of this transition scenario are universal and are relevant for other, more general systems as well.

Universal moiré buckling of freestanding 2D bilayers

The physics of membranes, a classic subject, acquires new momentum from two-dimensional (2D) materials multilayers. This work reports the surprising results emerged during a theoretical study of equilibrium geometry of bilayers as freestanding membranes. While ordinary membranes are prone to buckle around compressive impurities, we predict that all 2D material freestanding bilayers universally undergo, even if impurity-free, a spontaneous out-of-plane buckling. The moiré network nodes here play the role of internal impurities, the dislocations that join them giving rise to a stress pattern, purely shear in homobilayers and mixed compressive/shear in heterobilayers. That intrinsic stress is, theory and simulations show, generally capable to cause all freestanding 2D bilayers to undergo distortive bucklings with large amplitudes and a rich predicted phase transition scenario. Realistic simulations predict quantitative parameters expected for these phenomena as expected in heterobilayers such as graphene/hBN, [Formula: see text] heterobilayers, and for twisted homobilayers such as graphene, hBN, [Formula: see text]. Buckling then entails a variety of predicted consequences. Mechanically, a critical drop of bending stiffness is expected at all buckling transitions. Thermally, the average buckling corrugation decreases with temperature, with buckling-unbuckling phase transitions expected in some cases, and the buckled state often persisting even above room temperature. Buckling will be suppressed by deposition on hard attractive substrates, and survives in reduced form on soft ones. Frictional, electronic, and other associated phenomena are also highlighted. The universality and richness of these predicted phenomena strongly encourages an experimental search, which is possible but still missing.

Transition to a 100% renewable grid for a remote island: A case study of Tsushima Island, Japan

Transition to a 100% renewable grid for a remote island: A case study of Tsushima Island, Japan

Risk ranking of mycotoxins in plant-based meat and dairy alternatives under protein transition scenarios

While reducing the consumption of animal-source foods is recommended for planetary and human health, potential emerging food safety risks associated with the transition to dietary patterns featuring plant-based meat (PBMA) and dairy alternatives (PBDA) remain unexplored. We assessed the exposure to mycotoxins and ranked the associated health risks related to the consumption of PBMA and PBDA. We simulated diets by replacing animal-source proteins with their plant-based alternatives. A risk ratio method, based on the hazard quotient (HQ), was applied to rank mycotoxin-related food safety risks. An aggregated dataset containing contamination data of 45 mycotoxins distributed over 182 PBDA and 131 PBMA samples, collected and analyzed in Europe, representing a convenience sample, was used as input in our risk assessment. The highest risk mycotoxins identified for PBMA in the lower bound scenario (LB) were the sum of aflatoxins (sum AF), alternariol monomethyl ether (AME), aflatoxin B1 (AFB1) and alternariol (AOH), with HQs for children of 121.3, 66.8, 24.0 and 4.3, respectively. In the milk substitution model (LB), HQs of 4.9 (sum AF) and 1.4 (AFB1) were calculated for children, indicating a potential food safety risk. Further analysis demonstrated that soy-based meat alternatives are the highest risk food products, in particular for sum AF, AME, AOH and AFB1. With regard to PBDA, highest HQs were found for sum AF in almond and oat drink, and AFB1 in oat drink. This research presents an approach to overcome the lack of data in the assessment of emerging risks associated with the shift to more sustainable dietary patterns.

Performance of Pt-Free Catalysts in a Fuel Cell Vehicle

Fuel cell vehicles have been pointed out as a promising green transportation alternative in the current energy transition scenario. However, the use of Pt-based catalysts adds relevant costs to the proton exchange membrane (PEM) fuel cell technologies that limit the spread commercialization of those vehicles. Therefore, Pt-free catalysts have been strongly investigated for PEM fuel cell stacks. However, those catalysts usually face a performance-durability trade-off that is a challenge to overcome. In recent years, significant improvements have been reported for those catalysts. Thus, catalysts that reach encouraging criteria for single fuel cell experiments aiming at vehicle propulsion were reported which supports a positive direction for the application of those materials in fuel cell vehicles. Modeling these novel materials as stacks in a fuel cell vehicle and comparing them to conventional fuel cell vehicles is a relevant step to investigate the potential and limitations of those catalysts aiming at vehicle propulsion technologies. Thus, in this work, we aim to evaluate how novel Pt-free catalysts would impact the fuel cell vehicle performance in comparison to the current fuel cell stacks. For that, reported experimental data of single Pt-free fuel cells were used as a reference. The data were scaled up to a fuel cell stack based on the stack size of a commercial fuel cell vehicle. Further, the designed stack is integrated into a fuel cell vehicle model and simulated for a driving cycle using MATLAB. The vehicle model has similar parameters to a high-performance fuel cell vehicle and comprises the following components besides the fuel cell stack: the wheels, a single-step gear, an 8-pole PMSM motor, a 3-phase IGBT inverter, and a small lithium-ion battery. Results indicate that despite the low performance at high power, the vehicle comprising a Pt-free fuel cell could achieve promising car efficiency compared to the vehicle comprising conventional Pt loading due to its performance at low power values. Establishing strict limits in the fuel cell operation and increasing the number of cells could favor the integration of Pt-free catalysts into fuel cell vehicles supporting the development of more cost-competitive fuel cell vehicles.

Overview and Perspective of Integrated Photovoltaics with a Focus on the European Union

The global cumulative installed PV capacity is anticipated to surpass 2 TWp by the end of 2024, which is an increase in three orders of magnitude from the 1 GWp at the end of 2004. Depending on the energy transition scenarios, up to 8 kWp per capita have to be operational by 2050 globally. In Europe, this capacity could even be 50% higher, and this will have consequences on the decisions regarding where to install this capacity; thus, these decisions will be significantly impacted. This paper gives an overview of the technology options for installing PV systems in areas already used for other human activities as well as integrating them into ships and vehicles without the acquisition of extra land. The focus of this paper is on the situations within the European Union, such as land competition, and presents innovative solutions.