Satluj River Basin Research Articles

Altitudinal Appraisal Of Land Use Land Cover And Surface Temperature Change In The Satluj Basin, India

The land use change has affected nearly 32% of the global landscape from 1960 to 2019. Several studies have examined the impacts of land use land cover (LULC) on the surface temperature. Still, the spatiotemporal variation of LULC and LST with altitude is a less researched area. In the current study, we assess the LULC dynamics and its relation to altitudinal LST in the Himalayan Satluj River basin in Himachal Pradesh across the altitudinal range of 332 to 6558 meters. LULC, LST, NDVI, and NDMI were derived from Landsat data for 1980-2020. The spatial pattern was analyzed using Support Vector Machine (SVM) and a mono-window algorithm. The results of LULC denote that snow covered area (SCA) have decreased by nearly 56.19% since 1980 and vegetation cover has increased. However, a decline in vegetation density is pronounced at the same time. The mean surface temperature of the Satluj basin has amplified by 6°C (0.25°C/year) from 1996 to 2020. Mostly Zone 3 and 4 are under high hilly and temperate dry regions in Lahaul Spiti and Kinnaur district of Himachal Pradesh. The most important sign is that the mean surface temperature for Zone 3 (3000m-4500m) and Zone 4 (above 4500m) was the highest increase to 6°C (0.26°C/year) and 8°C (0.31°C/year) from 1996 to 2020. The increase in LST values is attributed to land cover dynamics precisely the decline of snow cover area and the emergence of vegetation zone at higher above the 4500 altitudes. Our study facilitates regional analysis.

Geochemical characterization, its controlling factors, and comparison between the upstream and downstream segments of the Himalayan Satluj River basin, India

Satluj River Basin (SRB) has special economic significance, representing the country's most incredible hydro-structure with fresh water, a primary source of irrigation and hydroelectric power in Northern India. Therefore, SRB's geochemical characterization is vital for hydropower and agricultural sustainability. This study provides a preliminary characterization of the hydrogeochemical processes controlling the natural water evolution in SRB by observing the spatial variation and qualitative assessment of solute chemistry (major ions and trace/heavy elements) in the Satluj river, associated tributaries, and groundwater. Hydrochemical characteristics displayed the predominance of geogenic weathering processes with carbonates dissolution and silicate weathering as end members that could explain all the geochemical variability within the SRB. The results reveal that the chemical signature of the upstream segment is possibly influenced more by carbonate weathering than silicate weathering, and the trends reverse in the downstream section with the increasing influence of silicate weathering. Dissolved heavy metals (HMs) such as Mn, Cr, Fe, Co, Ni, Cu, Zn, As, Cd, and Pb showed large fluctuations among upstream and downstream sampling sites, indicating diverse environmental conditions. Human health risk assessment (HHRA) studies revealed less or no potential noncarcinogenic via HMs, except for the downstream stretch of tributaries inferring increased non-cancerous risk. Moreover, the HHRA with HMs (Cr, As, Cd, and Pb) manifested high carcinogenic risks for adults and children across the SRB. The finding of this study could be the baseline dataset for assessing the future status, effective management, and better utilization of water resources of the SRB.

Improvements in Sub-Catchment Fractional Snowpack and Snowmelt Parameterizations and Hydrologic Modeling for Climate Change Assessments in the Western Himalayas

The present work proposes to improve estimates of snowpack and snowmelt and their assessment in the steep Himalayan ranges at the sub-catchment scale. Temporal variability of streamflow and the associated distribution of accumulated snow in catchments with glacier presence in the Himalayas illustrates how changes in snowpack and snowmelt can affect the water supply for local water management. The primary objective of this study is to assess the role of elevation, temperature lapse rate (TLR), and precipitation lapse rate (PLR) in the computation of snowpack (or snowfall) and snowmelt in sub-catchments of the Satluj River basin. Modeling of snowpack and snowmelt was constructed using the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) in both historical (1991–2008) and near-time scenarios (2011–2030) by implementing real-time hydrometeorological, snow-hydrological parameters, and Global Circulation Model (GCM) datasets. The modeled snowmelt-induced streamflow showed a good agreement with the observed streamflow (~60%), calibrated and validated at three gauges. A Sequential Uncertainty Parameter Fitting (SUFI2) method (SUFI2) resulted that the curve number (CN2) was found to be significantly sensitive during calibration. The snowmelt hydrological parameters such as snowmelt factor maximum (SMFMX) and snow coverage (SNO50COV) significantly affected objective functions, such as R2 and NSE, during the model optimization. For the validation of snowpack and snowmelt, the results have been contrasted with previous studies and found comparable. The computed snowpack and snowmelt were found highly variable over the Himalayan sub-catchments, as also reported by previous researchers. The magnitude of snowpack change consistently decreases across all the sub-catchments of the Satluj river catchment (varying between 4% and 42%). The highest percentage of changes in the snowpack was observed over high-elevation sub-catchments.

Hydrological modelling of a snow/glacier-fed western Himalayan basin to simulate the current and future streamflows under changing climate scenarios

Himalayan rivers are the paramount source of water supply to millions of people in northern India for drinking, irrigation and hydropower generation. Several researches reported that the hydrological regime of these Himalayan rivers is vulnerable to climate change. In order to understand the hydrologic response of their headwaters and examine the climate change impacts on streamflow, a hydrological modelling study is carried out in the upper part of the Satluj river basin in western Himalaya by using a temperature index based SWAT (Soil Water Assessment Tool) model. The model performed well for both calibration (years 1986–2000) and validation (2001–2005) periods against the observed daily streamflow at Rampur (R2 ≈ 0.9 and NSE ≥ 0.85). The study reveals that having a larger snow covered area, the snowmelt runoff is the major contributor to the Satluj river discharge at Rampur that comes out to be about 68–71% of the average annual water yield of about 600 mm. The actual evapotranspiration comes out to be about 14% of precipitation. The water yield of the basin is about 50% of the precipitation, for which the major part is generated in early summer.Further, to study the climate change impact on future streamflow, the downscaled data of CORDEX CCSM4 under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) scenarios are used. The bias correction is applied at point level to remove biases from future time series of downscaled data and subsequently loaded into the SWAT model to simulate the future streamflows at the end of the century. The future climate variability in terms of precipitation and temperature exhibited that the climate in the region would become wetter and warmer. A 14% to 21% of increase in annual precipitation is predicted towards the end of the century from the current average annual precipitation of about 420 mm under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. Similar to precipitation, the temperature will also be increased by 2.18 °C to 5.71 °C (in both the RCPs) than the current temperature values. The changed climate conditions in future are transformed into the possible range of stream flows using the SWAT model and found that the future climate would increase the streamflow by over 11%–19% at the end of the century under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively. The outcome of this study can be used to develop the suitable strategies for sustainable water management in the region.

Spatio-temporal analysis of temperature projections based on representative concentration pathways for Satluj River Basin, India

A spatio-temporal analysis of representative concentration pathways (RCPs)-based projections of surface air temperatures under different combinations of global circulation models (GCMs) and RCPs for Satluj River Basin has been presented. The projections of temperature anomalies have been obtained for several meteorological stations in the basin using 16 different combinations of emission scenarios and global climate models (GCMs). For each combination, the projections of temperature anomalies have been analysed for two future time periods centred at 2030 and 2050. The results of the analysis conducted herein clearly indicate that the temperature will rise for all the future time scales with the maximum increase being projected under RCP8.5 compared to the baseline 1986–2005. However, there is large inter-model variability in the projections of temperature anomalies under different RCPs. Under RCP 8.5, the average temperature in Satluj basin is projected to rise by around 4°C by mid of the twenty-first century. The projections of temperature anomalies analysed herein could be potentially used for the evaluation of hydrological impacts of climate change in Satluj River Basin—a key basin in the Himalayan region from the view point of global warming.

Groundwater contamination monitoring and modeling for a part of Satluj River basin

Groundwater contamination monitoring and modeling for a part of Satluj River basin

Correction to: Evaluation and ranking of different gridded precipitation datasets for Satluj River basin using compromise programming and f-TOPSIS

The original version of this article unfortunately contained mistakes. The proof corrections in Eq. 9 and Tables 3 and 5 were unfortunately not implemented.

Evaluation and ranking of different gridded precipitation datasets for Satluj River basin using compromise programming and f-TOPSIS

Evaluation and ranking of different gridded precipitation datasets for Satluj River basin using compromise programming and f-TOPSIS

Bias correction demonstration in two of the Indian Himalayan river basins

AbstractThere is imperative need of robust basin-scale data for climate impact studies over the topographically varying and landuse heterogenous river basins in the Indian Himalayan Region (IHR). Even finer resolution regional climate models’ (RCMs) information is elusive for these purposes. Based on available model fields and corresponding in-situ observed fields, bias correction for precipitation over Upper Ganga River Basin (UGRB) and temperature over Satluj River Basin (SRB) is demonstrated. These chosen river basins are in central and western Himalayas, respectively. Model precipitation (temperature) field from RegCM4.7 (REMO) and corresponding observed precipitation (temperature) field from nine (eight) stations of UGRB (SRB) are considered. Empirical quantile mapping (inverse function method) method is used. It is seen that each model has a distinct systematic bias relating to both precipitation and temperature means with respect to their corresponding observed means. Applying bias correction methods to the model fields resulted in reducing these mean biases and other errors. These findings illustrate handling and improving the model fields for hydrology, glaciology studies, etc.

Meteorological trends over Satluj River Basin in Indian Himalaya under climate change scenarios

Temperature and precipitation distributions depend on variable topography and heterogeneous landuse/landcover in the Indian Himalayan Region (IHR). It imparts a major concern for hydrological, glaciological modelling, dam structure assessment, etc. Thus, there is an inherent requirement of robust information for climate impact studies over the topographical variable and landuse heterogenous region in the Indian Himalayan Region (IHR). In particular, the importance of bias corrections become critically important over Himalayan river basins, in which model outputs with the corresponding in-situ observations are used for improving the model distribution. These improved details in present and future, as well, are important to carry out the climate change impact studies at basin scale for hydrological, glaciological, climatological studies, etc. Thus, in the present study firstly, model fields are bias corrected with the corresponding in-situ observations. And then trends in these bias corrected data is compared with the corresponding in-situ observations. These assessment of present and future changes in temperature and precipitation over Satluj River Basin (SRB) located in the western Himalayas is illustrated. Model fields are considered from a Regional climate model (REMO) from Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment-South Asia (CORDEX-SA) in three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), i.e., 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5 W/m2. These projections are bias corrected using distributed quantile mapping. The precipitation (temperature) bias correction is performed using the distributed quantile mapping on the gamma (normal) distribution. The standard trend statistics is applied for quantitative assessment. A good capture of bias correction in temperature and precipitation is illustrated. Efficient bias removal is depicted in cumulative distribution curve (CDF) at individual station. Trend analysis shows that highest rate of precipitation decrement at low altitude station (Kasol) with the rate of −6.362 mm/year in RCP 8.5. Over the SRB highest rate of temperature increment is seen at highest altitude station (Kaza) with the rate of 0.084°C/year in RCP 8.5. On an average, fall in precipitation and increase in temperature with >99% confidence level in RCP 8.5 is seen. In addition, intensity lowers in other lower RCPs. The study sums up with the efficacy of CORDEX-SA REMO model in capturing present and future change in temperature and precipitation over the SRB in western Himalayas using the bias correction.

Active tectonics influences in the Satluj river basin in and around Rampur, Himachal Himalaya, India

The detailed investigation of surface dynamics plays a vital role in the identification of regions experiencing recent tectonic activity. The analytical capabilities of geographic information system (GIS) in association with digital elevation model (DEM) are utilized to extract the morphometric and morphotectonic parameters of Satluj basin around a socio-economically important area (the Rampur zone). The drainage network of Strahler order 5 has been extracted from DEM and further analysed qualitatively and quantitatively in order to delineate areas of active deformation and the influence of neotectonic activities on the basin evolution. Further, the responses of the fluvial drainage patterns and other basinal geomorphic indices against the tectonic disturbances have been assessed. The results of morphometric and morphotectonic parameters affirm the neotectonic activities in the basin which is further verified in the field investigations by the presence of active faults, triangular facets, knick points, sharp truncation of the channel, offset channel etc. In addition, an attempt has been made to associate the landslide occurrences with morphometric features. The results of the morphometric study supported by the data of repeated occurrence of earthquake swarms and landslides in the region suggest high neotectonic activity along an active fault in the basin.

Integrated GIS-based modelling approach for irrigation water quality suitability zonation in parts of Satluj River Basin, Bist Doab region, North India

The groundwater is the main source for irrigation and other purposes in the alluvial plains of Punjab. The poor irrigational water quality affects the soil quality which interrupts the growth of plants impacting the agricultural production and can cause risk to human health, and thus, it is important to evaluate the water quality for irrigation uses in the agrarian regions. An integrated GIS-based modelling approach along with conventional water quality indices such as sodium adsorption ratio, per cent sodium, residual sodium carbonate, residual sodium bicarbonate, magnesium hazard, permeability index, potential salinity, Kelly’s ratio, electrical conductivity, total hardness, pH and total dissolved solids was used to delineate the irrigation water quality suitability zones in parts of agricultural prolific Satluj River Basin. Analytical results revealed that groundwater of the study area is very hard and slightly alkaline in nature and the relative abundance order of major ions is Mg2+ > Na+ + K+ > Ca2+ and HCO3− + CO32− > Cl− > SO42−, respectively, for cations and anions. The weighted overlay technique was applied to generate the irrigation water quality zonation map, and results revealed that nearly 3.2% (117 sq. km) of the total area was not suitable for the irrigation water quality, whereas 85.2% (3076 sq. km) and 11.6% (421 sq. km) area fall under moderately suitable and suitable classes, respectively. The elevated level of some ions found in the shallower zone as compared to the deeper zones indicates that in addition to the geogenic factors (weathering and dissolution of aquifer materials) anthropogenic inputs such as ill agricultural practices, leaching from septic tanks and municipal waste are adversely affecting the groundwater system in the region. The results of US Salinity Laboratory’s diagram showed that 42% groundwater samples fall in C3S1 (high salinity with low sodium hazard) category indicating the unsuitability for irrigation purpose due to high salinity hazard and cannot be used in soils with restricted drainage. The results of Piper and Durov diagrams revealed that Ca2+–Mg2+–HCO3− is the dominant hydrochemical facies with Mg2+–HCO3− water type in the groundwater of the study area and hydrochemistry is controlled by both natural and anthropogenic factors. The bottom-up approach and involvement of locals can boost the management of water resources in the study area.

Large Losses in Glacier Area and Water Availability by the End of Twenty-First Century under High Emission Scenario, Satluj Basin, Himalaya

Glaciers in the Satluj river basin are likely to lose 53% and 81% of area by the end of the century, if climate change followed RCP 8.5 scenario of CNRMCM5 and GFDL-CM3 models respectively. The large variability in area loss can be due to difference in temperature and precipitation projections. Presently, Satluj basin has approximately 2000 glaciers, 1426 sq. km glacier area and 62.3 Gt glacier stored water. The current mean specific mass balance is –0.40 m.w.e. a–1. This will change to –0.42 and – 1.1 m.w.e. a–1 by 2090, if climate data of CNRM-CM5 and GFDL-CM3 are used respectively. We have used an extreme scenario of GFDL-CM3 model to assess the changes in the contribution of glacier melt to the Bhakra reservoir. Mass balance model suggests that glaciers are contributing 2 km3 a–1 out of 14 km3 of water. This will increase to 2.2 km3 a–1 by 2050, and then reduce to 1.5 km3 a–1 by the end of the century. In addition, loss in glacier area by the end of century, will also increase the vulnerability of mountain communities, suggesting need for better adaptation and water management practices.

Spatial distribution of physico-chemical parameters for groundwater quality evaluation in a part of Satluj River Basin, India

Abstract The rising population, contamination and mismanagement of groundwater worldwide require sustainable management techniques and strategies to prevent misuse of groundwater resources especially in the semi-arid regions of the world. The aim of the present study is to assess the distribution of contaminants in groundwater at a spatial level by using a geostatistical method, namely ordinary kriging. For this, a physico-chemical parameter data set at 14 sampling locations for a period over 25 years was assessed. Three semi-variogram models, namely exponential, Gaussian and spherical, fitted well for the data set and were cross-validated using predictive statistics. Based on nugget/sill ratio, which characterizes the overall spatial dependence of water quality parameters, it was observed that, apart from nitrate, all the other parameters showed moderate to weak spatial dependence (i.e. total hardness), indicating significant influence of urbanization, fertilization and industrialization. Spatial distribution maps of all the parameters were generated. Concentration of most of the parameters reported high values in the northern region, while silicon dioxide and potassium recorded high values in the southern and central regions of the study area respectively. The study highlighted the depleting groundwater resources in various regions of the study area, indicating that the groundwater quality is in a declining state.

Mid-21st century projections of hydroclimate in Western Himalayas and Satluj River basin

Abstract The Himalayan climate system is sensitive to global warming and climate change. Regional hydrology and the downstream water flow in the rivers of Himalayan origin may change due to variations in snow and glacier melt in the region. This study examines the mid-21st century climate projections over western Himalayas from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) global climate models under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). All the global climate models used in the present analysis indicate that the study region would be warmer by mid-century. The temperature trends from all the models studied here are statistically significant at 95% confidence interval. Multi-model ensemble spreads show that there are large differences among the models in their projections of future climate with spread in temperature ranging from about 1.5 °C to 5 °C over various areas of western Himalayas in all the seasons. Spread in precipitation projections lies between 0.3 and 1 mm/day in all the seasons. Major shift in the timing of evaporation maxima and minima is noticed. The GFDL_ESM2G model products have been downscaled to Satluj River basin using the weather research and forecast (WRF) model and impact of climate change on streamflow has been studied. The reduction of precipitation during JJAS is expected to be > 3–6 mm/day in RCP8.5 as compared to present climate. It is expected that precipitation amount shall increase over Satluj basin in future (mid-21st century) The soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) model has been used to simulate the Satluj streamflow for the present and future climate using GFDL_ESM2G precipitation and temperature data as well as the WRF model downscaled data. The computations using the global model data show that total annual discharge from Satluj will be less in future than that in present climate, especially in peak discharge season (JJAS). The SWAT model with downscaled output indicates that during winter and spring, more discharge shall occur in future (RCP8.5) in Satluj River.

Annual cycle of temperature and snowmelt runoff in Satluj River Basin using in situ data

Abstract Melting of snow and ice contributes a large amount of water to the streamflow in the Satluj River. During the winter season, there is low base flow in the river as compared to spring and summer. Temperature is one of the key factors which directly impacts snow and ice melting throughout the year. A substantial amount of snowmelt only occurs when all the snow in a pack reaches isothermal condition. It is therefore very important to know the duration of impact of temperature on snowmelt runoff. Since the Himalayas have very few stations observing hydrological as well as meteorological conditions, it is difficult to validate the snowmelt models and examine changes in small-scale features in river basins of the region. The present study examines the annual cycle and interannual variability of runoff in the Satluj Basin in the western Himalayas and documents the impact of temperature on snowmelt runoff of Satluj River using daily in situ data for the period 1982–2005. A multivariate regression model using precipitation and surface temperature has been developed to predict the discharge of Satluj River at a daily scale. It is seen that after every warm phase and cold phase of temperature, the impact persists for around one month and affects the snowmelt runoff during January, February and March at lower- and higher-elevation stations such as Bhakra and Kasol, respectively. The effect of a large fall and rise in temperature is noticed on snowmelt runoff measured at all the discharge stations, while a small temperature change does not affect the observed discharge at all the stations. The remote sensing and reanalysis data are consistent with in situ data in the basin, and there is no major change in peak month of discharge or the amplitude during two different periods at Rampur gauge station.

Analysis of Projected Temperature trends over Rampur at Satluj River Basin

Analysis of Projected Temperature trends over Rampur at Satluj River Basin

Extreme precipitation events simulation under plausible scenarios of climate change in Satluj River basin, India

A K-nearest neighbour weather-generating model is applied to simulate: 1) total precipitation during extreme precipitation events; 2) duration of extreme wet spells; 3) duration of extreme dry spells in the Satluj River basin - a key basin in the central Himalayas under climate change scenarios projected by 15 different combinations of global climate models (GCMs) and emission scenarios. The intent is to assess the vulnerability of the basin to extreme hydrological events, including floods and droughts, resulting from extreme precipitation events. The driving data set for the K-NN model was obtained by applying the precipitation change fields obtained from different combinations of the GCM and emission scenarios to the observed data. Results indicate that several extreme wet and dry spells that were more severe than the observed were simulated. Results of frequency analysis of storm depths indicated that ECHAM5 model under A2 scenario produced the highest one-day precipitation maxima for each return period considered.

Extreme precipitation events simulation under plausible scenarios of climate change in Satluj River basin, India

A K-nearest neighbour weather-generating model is applied to simulate: 1) total precipitation during extreme precipitation events; 2) duration of extreme wet spells; 3) duration of extreme dry spells in the Satluj River basin - a key basin in the central Himalayas under climate change scenarios projected by 15 different combinations of global climate models (GCMs) and emission scenarios. The intent is to assess the vulnerability of the basin to extreme hydrological events, including floods and droughts, resulting from extreme precipitation events. The driving data set for the K-NN model was obtained by applying the precipitation change fields obtained from different combinations of the GCM and emission scenarios to the observed data. Results indicate that several extreme wet and dry spells that were more severe than the observed were simulated. Results of frequency analysis of storm depths indicated that ECHAM5 model under A2 scenario produced the highest one-day precipitation maxima for each return period considered.

Assessment of climate change impacts on streamflows in Satluj river basin, India using SWAT model

This paper describes the development and application of soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) to the simulation of stream flows at Bhakra - the major reservoir in the Satluj River basin in India. The basin lies in the Himalayan region, which is one of the most climatically sensitive areas in the world. PRECIS generated outputs of climate variables under IPCC A1B Scenarios for Indian conditions corresponding to the baseline (1961-1990), midcentury (2021-2050) and endcentury (2071-2098) have been used as an input to SWAT model. Results of simulation indicate that mean annual streamflows at Bhakra will likely increase by 12.8% for the midcentury, and 19.4% for the endcentury in response to climate change projections generated using PRECIS. For the January-February period, the streamflows are projected to increase by 49% for the midcentury and 21% for the end century relative to the base period. For the monsoonal season, both the midcentury and the endcentury periods are projected to experience an increase in streamflow of around 10% relative to the baseline period. The present study provides guidance in the understanding of climate change impacts on the hydrologic regime in a basin that is highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change.