Sanction Measures Research Articles

Counter Terrorism, Sanctions and Humanitarian Access in COVID-19

This article will look at the impact of counterterrorism and sanctions measures on principled humanitarian action in the context of COVID-19 pandemic. It will also explore the daily operational challenges faced by humanitarian organizations as they carry out their work, as echoed in a growing body of research. This includes, though are not limited to, difficulties to the independent selection of beneficiaries, to carrying out bank transfers, to engagement with non-state armed groups and to the provision of healthcare to people in need in sanctioned jurisdictions. The need to respond to the COVID-19 pandemic has brought new urgency to these issues as pre-existing constraints in parts of the world, despite joint efforts undertaken by donors, can hinder the response. In addition to, it will discuss the need to reaffirm the fundamental importance of the humanitarian principles and to ensure that counter-terrorism measures and sanctions do not weaken adherence to them. It will seek to identify ways to ensure that such measures are consistent with Member State obligations under International Humanitarian Law, ensuring people-centered solutions and strengthening effectiveness.

CORRELATION ANALYSIS OF THE IMPACT OF SANCTIONS ON STOCK AND INDUSTRY INDICES OF COUNTRIES INITIATING SANCTIONS AND COUNTRIES UNDER SANCTIONS

This paper presents the analysis and assessment of the impact on financial markets of the consequences of sanctions imposed at the initiative of the United States and the European Union in March 2014. One of the factors for sustainable economic development in the context of imposed sanctions is the stability of financial markets. To assess the consequences of the impact of sanctions on financial markets, we performed a correlation analysis of stock and industry indices of countries initiating sanctions and countries which are subject of sanctions, including Russia. The use of correlation analysis using current data made it possible to determine the presence, direction and strength of the relationship, and to assess the statistical significance of the obtained data in the context of leading stock and industry indices. For a detailed analysis of the impact of sanctions measures, calculations were carried out using a market model for assessing the returns of stock and industry indices, taking into account the leading factor. There is a close connection between the selected industry indices and the majority of industry indices of the countries initiating sanctions and, at the same time, there is a weak connection with the industry indices of countries subject to sanctions, including Russia. The study showed the insignificant effectiveness of the impact of sanctions measures on the Russian financial market. Based on the correlation analysis carried out, further research will allow to assess not only the impact of sanctions on the economies of the countries on which these sanctions are imposed, but also to analyze the reverse effect for the countries initiating the sanctions.

The effects of sanctions on Russian banks in TARGET2 transactions data

This paper examines the effect of financial sanctions at the most disaggregated level possible, individual bank accounts. Using data from the Eurosystem's real-time gross settlement system TARGET2, we provide empirical evidence that sanctions imposed by the European Union on Russian banks following Russia's aggression against Ukraine in 2014 and 2022 have sizably reduced financial transactions with sanctioned Russian bank accounts, both along the extensive and intensive margins. Among the various sanction measures taken, exclusion from SWIFT, a global provider of secure financial messaging services, turns out to have the largest effects.

LEADING RISKS OF GEOPOLITICA AND GEOECONOMICS FOR BUSINESS ACTIVITY IN UKRAINE DURING THE WAR

The article analyzes the current leading risks of geopolitics and geo-economics for business activity in Ukraine. Research has shown that domestic business activity largely depends on the level of intensity and success of military operations in the east and south of Ukraine, in the protection of infrastructure, and the rapid restructuring of the economy for military needs. In addition, the risks lie in the NBU’s low-incentive financial and investment policy; inconsistency on military-technical assistance; failure of sanctions measures against the aggressor country; political uncertainty in many countries that actively support Ukraine in the war against the aggressor. There is also global defragmentation, as well as the emergence of new conflict zones in the world, which significantly reduces the growth rate of the global economy and trade, and complicate financial and investment processes in the world. All this requires Ukraine to strengthen its leadership, flexibility, prompt response to challenges and the formation of its own strategic vision for solving problems both at the international level, with regional cooperation and with internal mobilization of resources. This approach determines the strengthening and intellectualization of foreign policy institutions of Ukraine with the formation of optimal strategies, the selection of appropriate available external and internal resources in countering existing geopolitical and geo-economic risks.

СБЕРЕГАТЕЛЬНОЕ ПОВЕДЕНИЕ ГРАЖДАН В СОВРЕМЕННЫХ ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКИХ УСЛОВИЯХ

The article presents an analysis of the current state of citizens’ savings behavior and the specifics of its implementation against the background of negative trends occurring in the economic sphere. The actions of state authorities are aimed at creating optimal living conditions for society, despite the pressure on the Russian economy from Western countries in the context of tightening relations and the introduction of sanctions measures. The identified aspects show that for Russian citizens, in the current geopolitical and economic conditions, a vector of savings formation is being acquired, which requires not only the creation, but also the maintenance of long-term investment conditions within the framework of guarantees for the preservation of financial resources invested for a long period of time. In particular, the current long-term savings program creates the opportunity to attract citizens’ funds, however, there is an insufficient level of trust, and therefore there is a need to improve the system of state guarantees for investing citizens’ financial resources for a long-term period and receiving appropriate payments from the use of financial resources.

Commercial organizations with foreign investments: problems of foreign economic activity in the field of precious metals mining

The article research the problematic issues of foreign economic activity and, in general, the financial and economic activities of commercial organizations with foreign investments operating in the field of precious metals mining. The author considers the dual nature of foreign direct investment as a factor that simultaneously contributes to the development of the national economy and creates risks and threats in the field of protecting and ensuring the security of the national economy from external interference. In the article, the author draws attention to the specific factors of foreign investment in the field of industrial production and mining, including the prevalence of the re-export nature of foreign investment and its causes, as well as the period of turnover of investments, which are also influenced by exchange rate differences. The article focuses on the consideration of specific sanctions that have been imposed on the sector of mining and production of precious metals, reveals their essence and specifics, and assesses their direct negative impact on mining and manufacturing enterprises in general, as well as their negative impact on commercial organizations with foreign investments, in particular. Sanctions are considered in the context of private and public sanctions measures, as well as from the position of countering them from the economic entities themselves. The article also examines the issues and provides a description of the practical aspects of direct anti-sanction and indirect public financial regulation, adversely affecting the financial and economic results of domestic enterprises operating in the field of production and extraction of precious metals

경제제재 효과에 영향을 미치는 요인에 관한 연구

This paper analyzes the factors influencing the effectiveness of economic sanctions imposed on sanctioned countries in the international community. It sets up causal variables at both domestic and international levels and, through an analysis of four countries that have been subjected to economic sanctions, seeks to determine which variables mitigated the effectiveness of economic sanctions. Domestic variables are set as the political system and economic size of the sanctioned country, while international variables include trade networks, foreign direct investment, involvement of international organizations, and alliance formation (presence of assisting countries). Analyzing the causes, progress, and effects of economic sanctions imposed on Iran, Russia, Myanmar, and India-Pakistan, it is found that both domestic and international variables had an impact. Particularly, the presence of assisting countries, known as the third-country effect, is analyzed to have a positive impact on sanction acceptability. Applying this to North Korea to verify the impact of the wavering effectiveness of economic sanctions due to the third-country effect, the study aims to find implications for efficient economic sanction measures that can lead to behavioral changes in North Korea in the future.

Res. 2664 (U.N.S.C.) and Res. 52/13 (U.N.H.R.C.)

Under Article 41 of the UN Charter, the Security Council has established 31 sanctions regimes since 1966. Sanctions measures encompass a broad range of enforcement actions not involving the use of armed force. The measures have ranged from comprehensive economic and trade sanctions to more targeted measures such as arms embargoes, travel bans, and financial or commodity restrictions. In recent years, there have been increasing numbers of complaints from humanitarian organizations that sanctions cause or exacerbate humanitarian crises. The UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) has estimated that at least 222 million people were experiencing acute food insecurity at the end of 2022, the largest global food crisis in modern history. At the same time, the countries that need the most assistance are often subject to international sanctions regimes. As of March 2023, UN sanctions applied in nine of the top ten operations of the International Committee of the Red Cross.

PROSPECTS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DIGITAL CURRENCY AND CRYPTO ASSETS IN RUSSIA UNDER SANCTIONS

The economy of the Russian Federation has been functioning under the enormous impact of economic restrictions over the past few years. In the current conditions, the issue of the use of various means and mechanisms capable of leveling the negative effects of sanctions pressure on the national economy is relevant. The purpose of the article is presentation possible options for the use of digital currencies and crypto assets in order to overcome the consequences of sanctions measures. Special attention is paid to the development of Russian legislation and government control in the sphere of crypto assets. In addition, the article describes examples of the usage of digital currencies and crypto assets in other countries.

International sanctions and energy poverty in target developing countries

Access to electricity and clean, modern cooking technologies is still a concern in developing countries. However, the literature on the determinants of energy poverty seems to neglect the role of international sanctions. This study establishes, for the first time, the empirical relationship between international sanctions and energy poverty in target developing countries. We use data from a large panel of 97 countries regularly sanctioned over the period 1996–2019. Using the fixed effects method and logistic regression, we find that international sanctions increase energy poverty in the target countries. Specifically, the imposition of UN, EU, US, unilateral and plurilateral sanctions leads to a reduction in energy consumption, access to electricity, and clean and modern cooking technologies. For robustness, alternative sanctions measures (travel, financial, trade, military, arms, economic, non-economic, and intensity), additional control variables, as well as an alternative estimation strategy, were considered. In order to provide robust policy recommendations, we explain the mechanisms by which international sanctions affect energy poverty, including human capital, energy efficiency, income inequality, and economic growth.

Methodological approaches to biotechnological process management in the protection of perennial fruit plantations (codling moth as an example) based on digital technologies

In this work, we investigate the harmful effect of codling moth in industrial fruit plantations of Krasnodar Krai. An analysis of growing expenditures on protective measures is carried out in connection with the high dynamics of macroeconomic processes and sanction measures. A correlation between the distribution of codling moth and the magnitude of climate change is noted. The need to increase the efficiency of measures aimed at the development and implementation of plantation and crop protection is highlighted. According to long-term research studies into the bioecological features of the phytophage development during vegetation, its following adaptation features are established: high adaptivity to variable weather conditions; high potential of pest resurgence during one vegetation period; changes in the pest phenology; an increase in the overall number of pests in those sections of the orchard where trees grow for 15–16 years and more. A scheme for the automated control of monitoring processes, optimum regime selection, application of biorational systems of efficiency control based on digital technologies is proposed. The technology for managing biotechnological processes of fruit plantation protection is described in terms of functional components, including the formation of a system of ecological and economic parameters of implementing insecticides against harmful pests; development of multivariant models and adaptive instruments of phytosanitary stability management of apple-tree agrocenoses based on the criteria of biologicalization, ecologization, and rational nature management; monitoring of the number of pest populations; phytosanitary stability of apple-tree plantations; regulations for effective and safe use of biorational, low-toxic chemical and biological preparations of new generation in apple-tree plantations; evaluation of the action of the studied preparations on non-target organisms. The latter include fruit analysis for the presence of residual amounts of background and impact pesticides, determination of phytotoxic effects of used preparations on the protected plants, evaluation of the studied preparations action on associated pests. A comparative study of available technologies for crop protection against codling moth is carried out. The efficiency of biological methods in the field of crop protection is substantiated.

Modernization of the economy of the macroregion: problems and solutions (on the example of the North caucasian Federal District)

Purpose: of the study is to substantiate the possibility of carrying out structural, spatial and technological modernization of the economy of the macroregion.Methods: the study used a systematic approach and the postulates of the modernization theory. The trend analysis was carried out with the help of statistical data. The predictive analytics methods were used to predict possible changes.Results: external shocks (economic crises and sanctions measures) to which the regions are exposed force them to adapt to a new condition and necessitate structural, spatial and technological modernization. The assessment of the structural state of the economy of the district based on the use of various statistical indicators revealed that the largest contribution to the creation of the regional domestic product is made by industries that belong to the non-manufacturing sector. There is nothing critical in this fact, but for lagging and problem regions, including the study district, it is most acceptable to ensure the dominance of industries in the manufacturing sector. It is possible to implement such an approach through structural, spatial and technological modernization.Many problems associated with changes in the structure of the economy are not solved due to the low technological base of enterprises in the real sector. Possible solutions to such problems are in the field of technological modernization and improving the quality of fixed capital. An important role in the implementation of these processes is assigned to the use of advanced technologies and special software products. To a greater extent, this applies to economic entities of the real sector, which form the framework of the economy.Conclusions and Relevance: the implementation of the modernization approach for the district is associated with certain problems. To solve them, it is possible to use various tools, including plans, strategies, programs, program-target management methods, and others. To carry out structural, spatial and technological modernization of the economy of the district, the most effective is the use of project management methods. The peculiarity of project management is that its methods can be adapted to the conditions of different regions, which differ in the parameters of socio-economic development.

RUSSIAN-IRANIAN RELATIONS AT THE PRESENT STAGE: PROSPECTS AND POTENTIAL RISKS

Since the beginning of 2022, relations between the Russian Federation and the Islamic Republic of Iran have intensified, directly affecting all areas of cooperation between the two countries. In addition to the general positive trend starting in 2012, the Ukrainian crisis and the subsequent sanctions imposed on the Russian Federation by the European Union, the United States and others, which have significantly limited the political circle of Russia's engagement, have become the main drivers of the development of mutual relations between Russia and Iran. On the one hand, improving relations with Iran relatively mitigates the impact of the sanctions measures, however, on the other hand, it deprives Russia of diplomatic flexibility, which could have an extremely negative impact on relations with potential allies in the Middle East and the rest of the world.

Стратегическое планирование развития АПК в обеспечении экономико-продовольственной безопасности России

Abstract. The purpose of the study is to substantiate the directions of improving the system of state strategic planning for the development of the agro-industrial complex of Russia in the conditions of permanent geopolitical pressure on the economy to ensure the economic and food security of our country. Tasks that were solved during the research: the analysis of trends in the development of the agro-industrial complex of Russia, the main indicators characterizing the economic results of its work; the main legal documents defining the priorities of strategic planning for the development of the agro-industrial complex are considered; the main strategic problems and priorities of its development to ensure the economic and food security of the country are identified. The main research methods were economic-statistical, tabular, graphical, predictive, comparative with subsequent data generalization. The information base included materials from the Government of the Russian Federation, the Federal State Statistics Service of the Russian Federation, the Ministry of Agriculture of the Russian Federation, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, as well as current regulations. The scientific novelty of the study is to substantiate the expediency and necessity of improving state strategic decisions in the field of agricultural development in the context of new sanctions measures by unfriendly states. The priorities of state support for the development of the industry in the long term have been identified, among which it is necessary to include a change in the structure of the agro-industrial complex, its technological renewal and financial support for agricultural producers in the conditions of the sanctions and post-sanctions period. The results consist in determining the main strategic priorities of the state in the development of the agro-industrial complex, aimed at improving the system of strategic planning for the development of the industry and ensuring the economic and food security of the country in the conditions of the sanctions and post-sanctions period.

Стратегическое планирование развития АПК в обеспечении экономико-продовольственной безопасности России

Abstract. The purpose of the study is to substantiate the directions of improving the system of state strategic planning for the development of the agro-industrial complex of Russia in the conditions of permanent geopolitical pressure on the economy to ensure the economic and food security of our country. Tasks that were solved during the research: the analysis of trends in the development of the agro-industrial complex of Russia, the main indicators characterizing the economic results of its work; the main legal documents defining the priorities of strategic planning for the development of the agro-industrial complex are considered; the main strategic problems and priorities of its development to ensure the economic and food security of the country are identified. The main research methods were economic-statistical, tabular, graphical, predictive, comparative with subsequent data generalization. The information base included materials from the Government of the Russian Federation, the Federal State Statistics Service of the Russian Federation, the Ministry of Agriculture of the Russian Federation, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, as well as current regulations. The scientific novelty of the study is to substantiate the expediency and necessity of improving state strategic decisions in the field of agricultural development in the context of new sanctions measures by unfriendly states. The priorities of state support for the development of the industry in the long term have been identified, among which it is necessary to include a change in the structure of the agro-industrial complex, its technological renewal and financial support for agricultural producers in the conditions of the sanctions and post-sanctions period. The results consist in determining the main strategic priorities of the state in the development of the agro-industrial complex, aimed at improving the system of strategic planning for the development of the industry and ensuring the economic and food security of the country in the conditions of the sanctions and post-sanctions period.

Legal Framework for the Regulation of Sanctions Measures in the European Union

The subject of this article is the legal basis of the mechanism for the adoption of sanctions (restrictive measures) within the European Union. The author traced the evolution of the application of sanctions since the creation of the European Economic Community (1957) to the present day, analyzed the relevant sections of the most important constituent acts of the EU and considered the features of the EU sanctions mechanism at the present stage. In recent decades, the practice of applying political and economic sanctions has significantly expanded in the system of international relations. At the same time, if earlier the initiator of international restrictive measures was usually the UN Security Council, now the world is dominated by unilateral national sanctions adopted on the basis of domestic political and legal norms. Somewhat apart in this process are the countries of the European Union, which are guided by collective sanctions measures approved within the EU. The purpose of this article is to study the specifics of the EU sanctions policy, to determine the legal nature of collective sanctions, as well as their compliance with the current principles and standards of modern international law. In the course of the evolution of the European Union as a subject of international legal relations, a special place was given to the formation of the common Foreign and Security Policy of the EU. The author comes to the conclusion that the gradual transformation of an economic association into a political union has led to the need for a unified coordinated policy in the international arena. According to the author, at the present time, the sanctions measures of the European Union have become an integral part of the PRSP, strengthening its role and importance as an important chain in the system of international relations. At the same time, the EU, not having its own armed forces, increasingly considers collective sanctions as an instrument of its political and economic influence in the world. The novelty of this study lies in the consideration of the EU sanctions mechanism from the point of view of the formation of a single common foreign policy of this supranational union.

ТОРГОВАЯ ВОЙНА И САНКЦИИ: ПОСЛЕДСТВИЯ ДЛЯ РОССИЙСКОЙ И ЕВРОПЕЙСКОЙ ЭКОНОМИК

The article presents an analysis of the impact of the trade and sanctions war, which began in 2022, on global economic processes. A review of studies is given in which, using methods of economic and mathematical modeling, the consequences of what is happening for the global economy, as well as the farms of Russia and the European Union in the short and long term are quantified. Of particular interest are models that provide forecasting of the macroeconomic consequences of the tightening of sanctions measures. Conclusions about possible options for further development of the Russian economy in the aspect of countering the growing sanctions pressure are presented.

Оценка применения и возможности повышения результативности антисанкционных налоговых решений в поддержку бизнеса

The sanctions restrictions imposed by the United States and other unfriendly countries on the Russian Federation permanently acquired a large-scale character starting in 2014, especially from 2022. The purpose of sanctions is to weaken the state through destructive impact on the country's economy by various illegal means. The subject of the study is the measures taken by the state aimed at adapting the economy to sanctions restrictions, in particular, including tax regulation tools. The objectives of the work are to assess the effectiveness of the anti—sanctions measures taken in terms of tax policy and to determine the directions for their improvement. It is established that as a result of a number of decisions taken under stressful conditions, the result they were aimed at has not been fully achieved, in particular from the regulation of the exchange rate difference as a component of the tax base. Additional opportunities have been identified to support taxpayers in difficult economic conditions through the use of existing instruments in terms of, for example, VAT regulation in cross-border transactions or the use of additional funds to minimize losses caused by sanctions, as well as through the use of methods to solve new tasks to ensure tax revenues to the budgets of the budgetary system without increasing the tax burden on priority production. The measures of tax control over the use of tax breaks to prevent tax evasion in full are determined, conclusions are drawn that, despite the indirect nature of the impact of tax measures on business activity, they are able, together with other financial instruments, not only to support business activity, but also to develop it.

ОБРАБАТЫВАЮЩАЯ ПРОМЫШЛЕННОСТЬ КАК ЛОКОМОТИВ ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКОГО РАЗВИТИЯ РОССИИ В УСЛОВИЯХ САНКЦИЙ

The article examines the impact of the sanctions regime of Western countries against Russia, highlighting the most influential sanctions measures. The role of the manufacturing industry in ensuring economic growth in Russia is noted. An analysis of problematic economic indicators characterizing fixed assets in Russia, and in the manufacturing industry, was carried out. Attention is paid to the main trends in the development of the manufacturing industry. In conclusion, many measures are proposed to ensure the sustainable development of Russian industry in the medium and long term.

Анализ влияния макроэкономических рисков и угроз на финансовое положение регионов Арктической зоны Российской Федерации

The article analyzes the main macroeconomic risks and threats affecting the financial situation of the regions of the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation (hereinafter — the Russian Arctic) due to changes in the geopolitical situation as a result of the introduction of sanctions against the Russian Federation due to its special military operation on the territory of Ukraine. According to some Russian and foreign experts, increased sanctions pressure from a number of countries may lead not only to a recession in the economy, but also provoke a new global economic crisis, the consequences of which will be more tangible than the negative effect of the crisis of 2008–2009. Therefore, protection from internal and external threats, ensuring the stability of the financial system, creating favorable conditions for maintaining the stability of the regional economy are extremely important and necessary in the current situation. The sanctions have significantly affected the change in the existing order, so the regions of the Russian Arctic have to stabilize the financial situation and prevent some industries from recession as soon as possible. The scientific novelty of the study lies in clarifying and systematizing the conditions for the functioning of the financial system of the regions of the Russian Arctic in the context of macroeconomic risks and threats caused by the changed geopolitical situation after February 24, 2022 and the introduction of large-scale sanctions to destroy the financial sector of the Russian economy.The risks associated not only with the specific features of the regions of the Russian Arctic, but also macroeconomic factors are analyzed. It has been established that the regions of the Russian Arctic where the degree of influence of restrictive sanctions measures is determined by openness and integration into international trade due to significant mutual effects, are most at risk. The main risks can also include a decline in industrial production, an increase in unemployment, both hidden and official. Tax revenues of consolidated regional budgets may significantly decrease. It is concluded that a change in the macroeconomic situation can significantly affect the position of the regions of the Russian Arctic in terms of financial potential.