Sale Of Property Research Articles

Predictive Insights for Monthly Property Sales Forecasting: An End-to-End Time Series Forecasting

In the realm of real estate and urban economics, accurate predictions of property sales can play a pivotal role in informed decision-making and strategic planning. Time series forecasting has emerged as a crucial technique for understanding and predicting temporal trends in various domains. This paper presents an end-to-end data science workflow focused on time series forecasting using the Facebook Prophet framework, with a specific application to predicting total monthly property sales in New York City (NYC) based on historical sales data. The objective of this study is to provide a comprehensive demonstration of how time series forecasting techniques can be employed to gain predictive insights into NYC's dynamic property market. The dataset under investigation encompasses NYC property sales spanning a 13-year period from 2003 to 2015. Each record in the dataset represents a building sold, with attributes encompassing property characteristics, location, transaction details, and sale dates. Leveraging this rich dataset, the proposed workflow follows a systematic approach: Firstly, the data is loaded and processed, ensuring its suitability for time series analysis. Exploratory data analysis (EDA) is then conducted to gain a deeper understanding of the data's temporal characteristics and identify potential patterns or anomalies. Following EDA, the study delves into the heart of the analysis by employing the Facebook Prophet framework for time series forecasting. Prophet's capability to handle missing values, outliers, and various seasonal patterns makes it a compelling choice. The model's architecture consists of three key components: trend, seasonality, and holidays. In the case of property sales forecasting, the focus is on capturing trends and seasonality, with the model's adaptive change point selection providing flexibility to account for shifts in growth rates. For the sake of forecasting accuracy, the data is aggregated on a monthly level. By adopting a piece-wise constant growth rate for the trend and employing Fourier series to model weekly and yearly seasonality, the Prophet framework yields forecasts that capture the underlying dynamics of NYC's property sales market. The results of the time series forecasting experiments are thoroughly analyzed and evaluated. Performance metrics such as Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) are used to quantify the accuracy of the predictions. This assessment serves as a critical checkpoint for assessing the model's capability to provide actionable insights for property sales forecasts. In conclusion, this paper demonstrates the efficacy of an end-to-end data science workflow for time series forecasting using Facebook Prophet, applied to the context of predicting monthly property sales in NYC. The methodology outlined herein provides valuable insights for stakeholders in the real estate and urban planning sectors, enabling them to make informed decisions based on accurate predictive models. Moreover, the presented framework offers a foundation for tackling similar forecasting tasks in various domains, such as capacity planning and price forecasting, by leveraging the power of time series analysis and robust forecasting techniques.

Deterministic and probabilistic analysis of Ukrainian residential property market evolution in turbulent 2019-2022 years

PurposeThis paper aims to examine the influence of Covid-19, current war and other factors on the dynamics of real estate prices in Ukraine from 2019Q2 to 2022Q4. More specifically, the authors examine the extent of the influence of Covid-19 and war on the real estate market in Ukraine.Design/methodology/approachThe authors monitor and accumulate information flows from the existing real estate market with their subsequent in-depth math-stat processing to examine dynamics and drivers of Ukrainian real estate prices evolution.FindingsThe study finds that the Ukrainian residential property market has experienced an average growing trend from June 2019 to December 2022, despite the strong influence of pandemic and war. The analysis shows that the impact of these factors varies across different regions and property types, with some areas and property types being more affected than others. The study also identifies the main drivers of the market evolution, including cost-sensitive factors such as floor level, overall area, housing conditions and geographical location.Research limitations/implicationsThis research is oriented to analyze evolution of residential property market in Ukraine in 2019–2022 years characterized by influence of such disturbing factors as pandemic and military actions.Practical implicationsResults gained are essential for any type of Ukrainian residential market analytics implementation including but not limited to investment analysis, valuation services, collateral, insurance and taxation purposes, etc. In broader sense, it can be also useful for comparison with same type market development in other geographical arears.Social implicationsInitial data base collected and constantly monitored covers all different regions of the country that gives a broad view on the overall market development influenced by pandemic and war.Originality/valueThe lack of a reliable database of the purchase and sale of residential properties remains one of the biggest obstacles in obtaining reliable data on their market value. This considerably complicates the process of carrying out a valuation and reduces the accuracy and reliability of the results of such work. This is especially important for market which evolves in times of unrest being influenced by such strongly disturbing factors as pandemic and military actions. The originality of the study lies in the development of a complete probabilistic processing of the initial database, which provides a reliable and accurate assessment of the market evolution. The results achieved could be used by various stakeholders, such as property owners, investors, valuers, insurers, regulators and other interested customers, to make informed decisions and mitigate risks in the turbulent Ukrainian real estate market.

THE POTENTIAL OF ARTIFICIAL ISLAND DEVELOPMENT IN MALAYSIA’S PROPERTY MARKET

Urbanization and increasing quality of life among society had caused increasing demand for artificial island development in most cities in the world. However, claims that the artificial island development project able to offer thousands of jobs for the local population has been refuted as it allows such a vast influx of foreigners also its consequences for the racial status quo. Therefore, this research’s objectives were to study the artificial island development potential as a marketing tool to boost property market sales as well as to determine its impacts from public community perspective. Thus, this research adopted quantitative approach along the research process. The results were based on the survey distributed within the Melaka Getaway in Malacca which involving 20 respondents from real estate industry’s person as well as 160 respondents from public communities. The results show that majority respondents agreed that artificial island development do influence the market sales of property in its surrounding area. Moreover, in terms of its impact towards the community and buyers’, the responses were categorized under four elements namely social, economic, environmental and strategic and geopolitical. The most significant impact was an improvement in quality of life, while the most significant disadvantage was a possible harm to the marine ecosystem. These results will be benefitted to both government and private sectors, public community as well as the researcher to explore a new angle of development.

THE LEGALITY OF A PRIVATE LEASE SCHEME: PULL THE WOOL OVER THE PURCHASER’S EYES?

The developer transferred a 99-year lease to the purchasers in a PLS instead of transferring the property ownership. Upon lease expiry, the property shall be reverted to the owner. In Malaysia, the Housing Development (Control & Licensing) Act 1966 (HDA 1966) regulates that a developer must transfer property ownership to the purchasers. "Build and lease" under the PLS does not comply with the law. This article is a conceptual paper that employs doctrinal research to analyse the legal position of property sale under a PLS and examine its compatibility with the existing law. The Courts' decisions on cases related to a PLS property are analysed to determine the PLS's implication on the purchasers' interest. Ultimately, to safeguard the purchasers, the amendment of the laws is recommended as a legal platform to legitimise the PLS.

К вопросу о межправительственном соглашении 1964 г. о продаже советского имущества Израилю (по материалам Архива внешней политики Российской Федерации и Государственного архива Израиля)

The article is devoted to the well-known events in the Soviet-Israeli relations in the 1950s and 1960s, related to the sale by the USSR government to the Israeli government of a number of real estate and land plots acquired in Palestine in the pre-revolutionary years. On the basis of new documents from the Foreign Policy Archive of the Russian Federation and the State Archives of Israel, an attempt has been made to present an objective picture of the situation with this property, which in practical terms never became Soviet. The article analyzes the circumstances and reasons that made it difficult to solve the problem of the return of the property of pre-revolutionary Russia to the USSR on the territory of Israel. Such circumstances, which made it impossible for the Soviet authorities in the 1950–1960s to prepare and justify the transfer of property, were socio-ideological and financial-material problems, as well as the absence on the part of the Israeli government of a rational behavior strategy regarding the disposal of the relevant property. The article outlines the interesting details of the 1960–1964 negotiations and the implementation of the intergovernmental agreement on the purchase of Israeli goods by the Soviet Union for the money received, as well as the plans to finance the construction of the premises of the new USSR embassy in Tel Aviv-Jaffa. The author provides concrete evidence of the “fake nature” of popular allegations about the sale of Soviet property for “rotten oranges”.

Analysis of Judges' Legal Considerations Against the Sale of Joint Assets Without the Wife's Agreement in the Study of Positive Law in Indonesia

The sale and purchase of land rights is usually carried out by means of an agreement or what is known as a land rights sale and purchase agreement. In the case of the transfer of land rights, the formal conditions for the sale and purchase of land rights must be proven by a deed of sale and purchase drawn up by and before an authorized official. Before the sale and purchase agreement is carried out, it is usually done with the initial agreement which the deed is drawn up by a notary. The responsibilities of a notary as a public official include the responsibilities of the notary profession itself which are related to the deed, including, the responsibility of a notary in civil terms for the deed he makes relates to the material truth of the deed. Then regarding joint assets that are sold without the consent of the husband and/or wife, is it possible, and does the notary have any responsibility for that. Then there is a court decision regarding joint assets which legalizes the sale and purchase deed because of the good faith buyer's consideration as stipulated in the Supreme Court Circular Letter No. 7 of 2012. The purpose of this study is to analyze the responsibility of a Notary related to the sale and purchase of joint assets and the legal considerations of judges who decide cases based on a circular letter which is not a general rule but an internal one that is not well known to the public. The research method used is normative, using secondary data obtained from library research including primary, secondary and tertiary legal sources. The responsibility of the notary, namely in making the deed of sale and purchase of joint property, is a civil responsibility, that is, all the regulations regulated in the UUJN only provide sanctions for violations of a formal notary, for example the rules for issuing deed and others. Judges should in deciding a case use general rules that are understood and understood by the community instead of using internal rules from the court itself which are not understood by the community, especially regarding buyers with good intentions.

부동산 집합투자기구의 자산 매각시점에 영향을 미치는 요인분석

This study analyzed the factors affecting the successful sale of real estate by private equity funds. In particular, it was examined through a comparison between the group in which the real estate, which is an operating property, was successfully sold and the group that was not. Previous previous studies focused on the correlation between major economic indicators and the return of real estate funds for the entire duration of real estate funds. However, this study is meaningful in that it attempted to analyze the rate of change in major economic indicators during the actual sale period. As a result of the analysis, it was significantly confirmed that the successful sale of private equity funds was a negative relationship with the level of corporate bond issuance rates, and a negative relationship with the increase in the industrial production index and the bank loan delinquency rate. On the other hand, the housing sales index in Seoul was limited, but it was confirmed that it was a positive relationship. Through this relationship analysis, collective investment businesses that operate private equity real estate funds can devise a timing of sale that can maximize sales profits. In addition, investors are expected to be meaningful to stakeholders, such as being able to use it as a decision-making indicator for the timing of the sale of property by real estate funds.

MORTGAGING PROPERTY UNDER FRENCH AND VIETNAMESE LEGISLATION: CONTRAST AND COMPARISON

The purpose of this paper was to effectively compare and contrast on mortgaged property law in Vietnamese laws and French laws and recommend some modification for Vietnamese to effectively protect the rights of both creditors and debtors in mortgage transactions and adopt few practices and applications from French mortgage property law. The research found that each government has different types of property law which needs to be cater or followed by the domestic and international public. The mortgage property law effectively helps individual to continue to remain the legal owner of the particular property and use different forms of funds the loan to effectively fulfill the requirements. The comparison of Mortgage property law of France and Vietnamese concluded that the purchase along with sale of property within France is highly smooth process as compared to in the Vietnamese.

TOPICAL ISSUES OF THE SALE OF THE DEBTOR'S PROPERTY 
 IN THE BANKRUPTCY PROCEDURE OF AN INDIVIDUAL

The subject of this article is the actual features of the formation of the bankruptcy estate and the sale of the debtor's property in the bankruptcy procedure of an individual. In particular, the article discusses the problems of legal regulation of the inclusion in the bankruptcy estate and the sale of crypto currencies as the debtor's property.

Real Estate Security using Blockchain

Property is an important asset, and the use of blockchain technology can help improve the implementation of work in this sector as well as its characteristics significantly for a smooth and trouble-free work flow to achieve a reliable system. Property sales or property transactions can be carried out using the blockchain. By using blockchain, we can make our property sales transactions safer and faster. At the moment, we can developa private blockchain for property transactions. Individuals orgroups interested in conducting property transactions using the blockchain must join or register with the property transaction blockchain. A registered user can only buy or sell property through the blockchain. Blockchain smart contracts aid in the process of purchasing property. Once the buyer and seller have agreed on theterms (property details) and the buyer wants to proceed with the transaction, the property transaction can be done with the help ofa smart contract. A smart contract is a computer programme that runs automatically when specified conditions are met. So when a transaction takes place between a buyer and a seller, the contract between them is generated by a smart contract. The smart contractgenerated in this way can be used as proof.

OBOWIĄZKI NABYWCY NIERUCHOMOŚCI ROLNEJ WYNIKAJĄCE Z USTAWY O KSZTAŁTOWANIU USTROJU ROLNEGO

The Act on the organization of agrarian system of 11 April 2003 introduced a special scheme for the purchase of agricultural land. The legislator’s initiative was designed to ensure that agricultural land would be extensively used for agriculture. The law has been amended several times since its entry into force. The most important changes were made in 2016, when the obligation of 10-year management and the prohibition on the sale and acquisition of agricultural property were introduced. Another amendment of 2019 shortened the above period to five years. The aim of this Act, containing some controversial provisions, is to lay down the basis of the agrarian system in Poland. In practice, it sets out a number of stringent requirements that the purchaser of agricultural property must comply with. As a result, trade in agricultural land is severely restricted.

CRIMINOLOGICAL CHARACTERISTICS AND PREVENTION OF THE ACQUISITION OR SALE OF PROPERTY OBTAINED BY CRIMINAL MEANS

The relevance of the research topic is that the manifestation of criminal relations in various spheres of public life, including the economy, is increasing quantitatively. The main factors contributing to this process are the weakening of control in the administrative sphere, insufficiently dynamic and timely improvement of the legal framework for combating crime. In the system of illegal economic activity, a fairly independent direction has emerged, associated with the acquisition or sale of property obtained by criminal means. Today it is a pronounced way of carrying out the illegal circulation of material values, the responsibility for which is provided for in Art. 171 of the Criminal Code of the Republic of Uzbekistan. Little has been studied about the personality of criminals who have committed crimes in the sphere of the economy, whose characteristics differ significantly from the characteristics of subjects who have committed other crimes, both in terms of age, level of education, and social status.

The Impact of Covid-19 on China's Real Estate Market

The real estate industry is one of the most vital industries in any economy. The industry entails improvements to structures, roads, utility systems, and buildings and is responsible for creating many jobs. Many challenges have faced the real estate industry, including outbreaks of COVID-19 and Pneumoconiosis. The COVID-19 pandemic had a huge effect on the real estate industry, with sales of property declining significantly. There are three scenarios that can be used to explain the trajectory of the real estate industry after the pandemic. The first scenario, which is the negative scenario, shows that commercial property sales will decline by 13% year on year. The second optimistic scenario points out that sales will increase during the second half of the year and cause a 7% decrease year-on-year. Lastly, under the neutral scenario, sales will be the same as those of the previous years, and the decrease may exceed 10%. In conclusion, the real estate industry faces significant challenges due to the pandemic. There are likely to be differences in recovery as first-tier cities such as Shanghai and Beijing are expected to rebound due to a fall in mortgage rates and strong talent recruiting. Second-tier cities will experience the quickest recovery due to strong urban foundations, high population, housing demand, and economic resilience.

Business Valuation Cases in Brief

Business Valuation Cases in Brief

Application of income capitalization approach for emerging rental income cash flow in Enugu metropolis property market

Purpose The purpose of this research is to ascertain the extent to which the income capitalization approach reflects the pattern of emerging rental income in Enugu property market.Design/methodology/approachThe survey research design was used in this study. Data from the field was gathered through a data collection pro forma administered to 40 valuers in Enugu metropolis in the manner of conducting interviews. This study used key valuation details of 54 sampled income generating properties valued by the respondent valuers between 2015 and 2022 using the income capitalization approach. The same sampled properties were then revalued by the researchers using annuity due assumption/formulas of the income capitalization approach. Descriptive and inferential statistics were used to analyze the data.Findings The study revealed that the income capitalization approach used by most valuers in Enugu does not reflect the property rental income pattern prevailing in Enugu property market where rents are paid in advance. The study further shows that the application of the income capitalization approach for valuation of annually in-advance property rental income cash flow results in a higher capital value of 3.49% in Enugu property market.Research limitations/implicationsThe limitations to this study are that past valuation done by valuers were used in the analysis instead of actual property sales and a relatively small number of sampled valuers and properties are used in the study The implication of the study is that ordinary annuity assumptions or formulas is inaccurate and not suitable for valuation of income generating property in an emerging market like Nigerian where timing of cash flow is annually in advance. Based on the result of this study it seems that ordinary annuity approach negate the principle of estimating value using income capitalization method by converting future cash flow from income generating property into an estimate of property value.Practical implicationsThe study advocates the adoption of the use of annuity due formulas in the valuation of income generating properties in Nigeria as its practice standard to avoid undervaluation as this assumption is logical and provides more accurate value due to prevailing lease structure and rent payments patterns in the country. The implication of the study is that the use of ordinary annuity assumptions or formulas is inaccurate and not suitable for the valuation of income generating property in an emerging market like Nigerian where timing of cash flow is annually in advance.Originality/value This is one of the very few empirical studies carried out in Nigeria to ascertain the extent to which the income capitalization approach used by valuers reflects the rental income pattern that prevails in the Nigeria property market.

Gentrification, gun violence, and drug markets

I demonstrate the linkage between gentrification and gun violence. As the underlying mechanism, I focus on gentrification’s displacement effect on local drug markets. Using two-way fixed effects differences-in-differences estimators, I show the gentrification of one block increases violence across the surrounding neighborhood. I find that some 2400 (8%) of Philadelphia’s shootings between the years 2011 and 2020 can be attributed to spillover effects from the gentrification of drug blocks. This effect is nearly ten times stronger than that observed on blocks without high levels of drug crime. This study also contributes a new empirical measurement of gentrification drawn primarily from property sales, along with building, zoning, and alteration permit issuance and utilizes a novel nearest-neighbor network approach to identify spatial spillover effects.

Wanprestasi Terhadap Akta Perjanjian Pengikatan Jual Beli (PPJB) Rumah Susun yang Dibuat oleh Notaris

Property sale and purchase transactions such as flats are transactions with large nominal values. The related parties must make a binding sale and purchase agreement as a means of legal protection for both parties in the event of a default against PPJB made by a notary so that the letter becomes official and safe. This study aims to determine the causal factors, and the legal protection of default of the sale and purchase binding deed (PPJB) of the apartment made by a notary. In addition, PPJB is also a letter made by a notary and as legal protection for consumers and is officially made by a notary.

Classification of Valuable Minerals and other Natural Formations for the Purpose of Qualifying their Illicit Trafficking

The article deals with the relevance of minerals and other natural formations to the subject of crimes, expressed in the illegal circulation of precious, semi-precious, colored ornamental stones from the standpoint of gemology, mineralogy, criminal and other legislation, science, and related problems of qualifying such crimes. Suggestions of a theoretical nature are made to improve the criminal legislation and the practice of its application. Responsibility for illegal trafficking of minerals and other natural formations that have increased value in the eyes of society is established by Articles 191, 192, 255 of the Criminal Code of the Russian Federation (both in Part 1 and Part 2 of this article, containing independent main elements of the crime). They can also be the subject of embezzlement (Articles 158—164 of the Criminal Code of the Russian Federation), acquisition or sale of property knowingly obtained by criminal means (Article 175 of the Criminal Code of the Russian Federation) and some other crimes.

Should the Electronic Communications and Transactions Act be amended to include electronic signatures for the sale of immovable property in South Africa?

Electronic signatures have become a core feature of digital transformation. Organisations can now transact with greater ease, regardless of physical distance or national borders. The Electronic Communications and Transactions Act 25 of 2002 facilitates electronic communications and transactions using electronic documents and signatures in South Africa. Electronic contracts and signatures are legally binding and constitute valid and admissible evidence in legal proceedings, although there are a few exceptions. One of the exclusions concerns agreements for the sale of immovable property. The Alienation of Land Act 68 of 1981, which regulates the sale of land, seeks to promote legal certainty as to the authenticity and contents of these contracts to limit instances of fraud and litigation. This article examines the risk associated with fraud and the case of Borcherds v Duxbury 2021 (1) SA 410 (ECP). In this case, contrary to legislation, the court accepted an electronic signature in a contract for the sale of immovable property. I recommend that the relevant legislation be amended to validate the use of advanced electronic signatures for the sale of immovable property. A holistic approach to electronic signatures is the only way to embrace an inevitable and complete digital transformation.

A Comparative Study of Urban House Price Prediction using Machine Learning Algorithms

Accurate housing price forecasts are essential for several reasons. First, it allows individuals to make informed decisions about buying or selling real estate and to determine appropriate prices. Secondly, it helps real estate agents and investors make better investment decisions and negotiate contracts more effectively. In addition, housing prices are often an indication of the general state of the economy. A price decrease may indicate an economic recession, while an increase in prices may signal economic growth. In this study, we proposed to address this subject by predicting house prices using machine learning by choosing three types of machine learning: Linear Regression (LN), Random Forest (RF) and GradientBoosting (GB). We tested our models on the Melbourne real estate dataset, which includes 34,857 property sales and 21 features.