South Asian Association For Regional Cooperation Member Countries Research Articles

The Effect of Exchange Rate and Exchange Rate Uncertainty on Domestic Consumption in SAARC Member Countries from 2005 to 2020

The exchange rate and its uncertainty are the key economic variables that influence other macroeconomic variables through various channels. Domestic consumption will be influenced by the exchange rate and its uncertainty. This research investigates the impact of the exchange rate and its uncertainty on the private sector consumption of the member countries of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) from 2005 to 2020. The data has been extracted from the World Bank websites, the Asian Development Bank, and the Ministry of Finance of Afghanistan. The uncertainty of the exchange rate data has been extracted using the ARCH method, and the research model has been estimated using the GLS method. The research results indicate that the exchange rate and its uncertainty have a significant and positive effect on private-sector consumption. The positive relationship between the exchange rate and its uncertainty with consumption is consistent with the theory of currency pass-through. Additionally, the impact of income on domestic consumption is positive and statistically significant, while the impact of government consumption expenditure on private-sector consumption is negative and significant.

Unraveling the impact of COVID-19 pandemic on foreign direct investment and its determinants: empirical insights from SAARC countries

PurposeThis paper aims to unravel the impact of post-pandemic COVID-19 on foreign direct investment (FDI) and its determinants in the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) Countries.Design/methodology/approachThe study utilized four macroeconomic variables includes growth domestic product growth rate (GDPG), inflation rate (IR), exchange rate (ER), and unemployment rate (UR) to assess their impact on post-pandemic FDI, along with two variables control of corruption (CC) and political stability (PS) to measure the influence of good governance. Random effects, fixed effects, cluster random effects, cluster fixed effects and generalized method of moments (GMM) models were applied to a balanced panel dataset comprising eight SAARC countries over the period 2010–2021. To identify the random trend component in each variable, three renowned unit root tests (Levin, Lin and Chu LLC, Im-Pesaran-Shin IPS and Augmented Dickey-Fuller ADF) were used, and co-integration associations between variables were verified through the Pedroni and Kao approaches. Data analysis was performed using STATA 17 software.FindingsThe major findings revealed that the variables have an order of integration at the first difference I (1). Nonetheless, this situation suggests the possibility of a long-term link between the series. And the main results of the findings show that the coefficients of GDPG, CC and PS are positive and significant in the long run, showing that these variables boosted FDI inflows in the SAARC region as they are significantly positively linked to FDI inflows. Similarly, the coefficients of UR, IR, ER and COVID-19 are negative and significant.Practical implicationsBy identifying the specific impacts of the post-pandemic FDI and its determinants, governments and policymakers can formulate targeted policies and measures to mitigate the adverse effects and enhance investment attractiveness. Additionally, investors can gain a deeper understanding of the risk factors and adapt their strategies accordingly, ensuring resilience and sustainable growth. Finally, this paper adds value to the literature on the post-pandemic impact on FDI inflows in the SAARC region.Originality/valueThis paper is the first attempt to trace the impact of COVID-19 on Foreign Direct Investment and its determinants in the SAARC Countries. Most of the previous studies were analytical in nature and, if empirical, excluded some countries due to the unviability of the data set. This study includes all the SAARC member countries, and all variables' data are completely available. There is still a lack of empirical studies related to the SAARC region; this study attempts to fill the gap.

Investigating the Causes of Intraregional Challenges of SAARC

SAARC is a regional cooperation organization in South Asia that has not played a significant role in regional convergence in South Asia in reducing tensions and solving regional crises since its establishment. Serious challenges among SAARC members have made regional cooperation difficult. The actors in this region view each other with suspicion, which has increased tensions and instability in the region. As the causes of intraregional challenges of SAARC are discussed in this article, the central question raised is: What are the factors of intraregional challenges of SAARC? The hypothesis of this research has been raised as follows: Political differences, land disputes, and border disputes have put regional cooperation among SAARC members under strain and intensified competition, which is discussed in this research. This research is descriptive-analytical and the method of data collection is library-based. The current research is important in that it examines the internal challenges among SAARC members and highlights it. The findings of this research indicate that SAARC member countries have become victims of regional political competition, resulting in intensified arms competition, increased poverty, and hindering regional economic and trade development.

<b>Impacts of Macroeconomic Variables on Foreign Exchange Rate of SAARC Member Countries</b>

Exchange rate (EXR) stability is crucial for especially the developing economies. This study examines the macroeconomic variables which affect EXR in member countries of South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC). To do the analyses, data from 1981 to 2019 was relied upon. To estimate the long-run coefficients, Fully Modified Ordinary Least Square (FMOLS) is incorporated. The outcomes of FMOLS exhibit that the variables such as trade, inflation, GDP, total debt services, trade openness, and tariff rate are inversely related to EXR while broad money is found to affect the EXR in positive. As a policy prospect, The Central Bank (CB) is needed to follow tight monetary policy to curtail liquidity of money in economy. It is recommended that CB to discourage government project financing that is to cause increase in money supply but to initiate trend line to facilitate GDP growth, trade, and imposition of tariff to curtail rising EXR.

A Reassessment of Oil Market Volatility and Stock Market Volatility: Evidence from Selected SAARC Countries

Volatility spillover informs whether the information in one market impacts the information in another. This paper examines whether oil market volatility spills over to the equity markets of selected SAARC countries. The study uses data from February 2013 to September 2019 to obtain updated evidence about the transmission of global oil price volatility to the equity markets of the SAARC member countries. The bivariate EGARCH model is used to test for volatility transmission from the oil market to the stock market. It is found that oil price shocks do not significantly impact equity market volatility, except in Bangladesh. Policymakers can use these findings when making policy decisions.

India's trade relations with the SAARC member countries during 2004 to 2014

India's trade relations with the SAARC member countries during 2004 to 2014

Pharmacovigilance practices in South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation countries: the need for collaboration

Abstract Objectives One-fifth of the world’s population lives in eight countries that constitute the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC). There is very little coordination among SAARC countries regarding the harmonization of pharmaceutical regulations and medicines safety. Pakistan, India and Bangladesh have experienced medicine-related tragedies where many patients have died. This study aims to examine current pharmacovigilance activity in the SAARC region to improve pharmacovigilance practices and to make recommendations for building a platform for collaboration to improve the safety monitoring of medicines in the region. The current review utilized secondary data. We reviewed the official websites of all SAARC countries’ national regulatory authorities for pharmacovigilance-related information. A data set with eleven pharmacovigilance indicators were gathered and synthesized. Key findings All eight SAARC member countries have pharmacovigilance systems with full membership in the WHO Program for International Drug Monitoring. Out of eleven pharmacovigilance indicators, India met ten; Pakistan, Bangladesh and Bhutan nine; Maldives and Afghanistan seven; Nepal and Sri Lanka five. The SAARC countries do not have a harmonized pharmacovigilance system or centralized database. Due to positioning in different WHO regions, it is proposed to create a consortium on medicine safety among SAARC countries like other regional organizations of the world to strengthen the pharmacovigilance systems and harmonize the pharmacovigilance practices among member countries. Summary To improve the quality of medicines and to strengthen regional medicine safety, the SAARC secretariat should consider forming a technical group of all member countries’ regulatory authorities.

Impact of Regional Economic Integration on FDI in SAARC Countries

Purpose: The empirical literature is inconclusive regarding whether some regions are more effective than others at attracting Foreign Direct Investment (FDI). The article aims to ascertain the effect of regional economic integration on FDI in SAARC member countries from 1998 to 2017.
 Design/Methodology/Approach: Mix research technique has been used. While qualitative research entails in-depth literature readings and reports, quantitative analysis entails presenting data via graphs and tables.
 Findings: Findings suggest a significant positive connection between FDI and regional integration in the SAARC economies. While regional integration has a vital role in increasing SAARC's share of global commerce, it has increased FDI inflows and its share in Asia and the world. As a result, while we cannot overlook both classic and non-traditional economic factors affecting FDI, regional integration may play a critical role in fostering FDI growth.
 Implications/Originality/Value: By boosting cross-border investment, regional cooperation will allow businesses, particularly those from smaller nations, to expand their size and capabilities to compete worldwide. It can also aid in increasing efficiency and reforming industries. SAARC countries must make significant progress toward integration.

Consumption-Based CO2 Emissions on Sustainable Development Goals of SAARC Region

Consumption-based CO2 emission (CBE) accounting shows the possibility of global carbon leakage. Very little attention has been paid to the amount of emissions related to the consumption of products and services and their impact on sustainable development goals (SDGs), especially in the SAARC region. This study used a CBE accounting method to measure the CO2 emissions of five major SAARC member countries. Additionally, a Fully Modified Ordinary Least Square (FMOLS) and a causality model were used to investigate the long-term effects of the CBE and SDG variables between 1972 and 2015. The results showed that household consumption contributed more than 62.39% of CO2 emissions overall in the SAARC region. India had the highest household emissions, up to 37.27%, and Nepal contributed the lowest, up to 0.61%. The total imported emissions were the greatest in India (16.88 Gt CO2) and Bangladesh (15.90 Gt CO2). At the same time, the results for the long-term relationships between the CBEs and SDGs of the SAARC region showed that only the combustible renewables and waste (CRW) variable is significant for most of these countries. The sharing of the responsibility for emissions between suppliers and customers could encourage governments and policymakers to make global climate policy and sustainable development decisions, which are currently stalled by questions over geographical and past emission inequities.

The Future Potential and Prospects of SAARC Regional Grouping: A Study

The renewed and reinvigorated engagement of India with the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) over the past few years has been one of the significant factors leading to the gradual and irreversible transition of the regional organisation from a declaratory phase to one of implementation (Bhagwati, 2008). The new growth momentum in the South Asian region and its increasing openness encourages a fresh look at the economic integration of the region. In this context, the study examines the opportunities and commodity potential of trade between India and the SAARC countries by adopting a variety of trade indices of export intensity index and import intensity index along with Gini coefficient. The authors further study the commodity trade potential between India and the SAARC countries by adopting the revealed comparative advantage index and revealed import dependency index. The study concludes an increasing export intensity and import intensity of trade between India and the other SAARC member countries. Finally, the values of Gravity coefficient and commodity analysis find a high trade potential between them and the untapped trade and investment scenario that could be tapped by strengthening the regional block of SAARC.

Human Development Index: A Comparative Study between Nepal and Other SAARC Member Countries

This study aims at assessing the trends, patterns and compositions of indices of Human Development Index (HDI) of Nepal, with the bid of comparing these with those of the SAARC member countries. Using primary and secondary sources of data, the study embarks on a consecutive analysis of the years ranging from 2015 to 2019, while employing a descriptive research design. Simple descriptive tools; content analysis, trend line, and bar diagram are used for data presentation and analysis. United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) has been preparing the global Human Development Index report since 1990. The study argues that misplaced priorities and not necessarily a shortage of resources often prevent countries from reaching acceptable levels of human development indexes, and thus failing to assuring their citizens the necessary universal access to basic essential amenities such as health, education, security and overall human emancipation. It concludes that, this type of comparison is pertinent because it would attract public attention, in terms of policy advocacy, which could lead to extensive positive policy initiatives for more detailed discussions and application of development strategies amongst the SAARC members’ countries.

Quality Assurance of Online and Distance Learning Education for SAARC Region during Covid-19 Situation

The outbreak of second wave of COVID-19 pandemic has again halted routine life of normal citizen across the globe. The nature always support the change for better future and covid-19 has provide chance to change challenges into opportunities. This study is sought to examine post Covid-19 effects on ICT infrastructure for e-learning education and its quality assurance mechanism in SAARC countries. This research is descriptive in nature and use comparative analysis of numerous challenges faced by SAARC member countries for implementation of E-learning. Challenges and limitation are also brush-up for further refinement in future in these areas. Future researchers may conduct survey techniques in explanatory research on implementation of ICT infrastructure of SAARC region countries. SAARC member countries may take lead from this study to address challenges and their solutions for development and implementation of E-learning.

Convergence Potentials in SAARC and ASEAN Economies

This study has set to compare the usefulness of the regional integration efforts taken by two important economic blocs, SAARC and ASEAN, within the Asian continent to reduce the regional income inequality. Therefore, the existence of income convergence (or divergence) among the SAARC and ASEAN countries is the aim of this study. To investigate whether (or not) there exists income convergence across the SAARC and ASEAN blocs over the period of 1970-2017, [Formula: see text]-convergence, σ-convergence and club convergence estimation methods have been applied. The results confirm the convergence of income across the ASEAN member countries, which is absent for the SAARC member countries at the intra-regional level. Although we considered all countries of the SAARC and ASEAN blocs together in the panel, an evidence of income convergence over the years has been found. The analysis supports the view of trade liberalization and recommends investing in the human capital to narrow down the regional disparity in future. To achieve a favorable impact of Asian rising growth, regional integration is important, for that a collective policy framework at the regional level is needed for both SAARC and ASEAN.

Effect of the Human Development Index on Mobile Telephony Diffusion: Evidence from SAARC Member Countries

Effect of the Human Development Index on Mobile Telephony Diffusion: Evidence from SAARC Member Countries

Is Capital Market Integration among the SAARC Countries Feasible? An Empirical Study

This paper aims to verify the feasibility of capital market integration among the SAARC member countries by analyzing the reaction of volatility towards the changes in economic, political, and financial factors by taking five particular SAARC countries as a sample. In order to achieve this objective, Gross Domestic Product Per Capita, Political Stability Index, Stock Market Value, Corporate Information Disclosure Index, and DGEN of Bangladesh, Sensex of India, NEPSE of Nepal, KSE100 of Pakistan, and CSE All Shares of Sri Lanka from 2003 to 2018 have been considered. All the data have been found stationary at the first difference. Pedroni, Kao, and Johansen's tests indicate the existence of cointegration among the factors. Panel Vector Error Correction Model observes both long-run and short-run impacts of selected factors on the volatility, thus confirms the possibility of capital market integration among the sample countries. The study strongly recommends market integration as it will increase market competition, reduce financial services costs, small companies can enjoy equity financing, and large companies can enjoy economies of scale. Theoutcome of this study enriches the international finance literature with a special focus on the regional economic bloc.

Impact of urbanization, economic growth, and population size on residential carbon emissions in the SAARC countries

This study attempts to analyse the influence of urbanization, economic growth, and population size on residential carbon emissions in the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) member nations for the period 1994 to 2013. To do so, we employ an augmented STIRPAT model in an ecological analytic framework with a fixed effect regression model that incorporates Driscoll and Kraay standard errors. The results show that population size and per capita GDP are leading drivers of high carbon emissions in the SAARC countries. The empirical results show that a U-shaped relationship exists between urbanization and residential carbon emissions: residential carbon emissions initially decrease with an increase in urbanization, reach a turning point at 25.33% and then increase with urbanization. Thus, our findings suggest a need for stronger national policies to control the impact of urbanization and population growth on residential carbon emissions in the SAARC member countries.

Understanding ICT adoption in SAARC member countries

This study analyzes the four key information and communications technology (ICT) indicators (fixed-line subscribers, mobile cellular subscribers, fixed broadband subscribers and individuals using the internet) in the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) member countries and finds the mobile telecommunication services are highly adopted. Further, considering mobile subscribers’ data from 2000 to 2017, we compare the Bass, Gompertz, and logistic econometric diffusion models to identify the best adoption diffusion pattern of mobile telecommunication technology. The seven SAARC members of Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, the Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka follow the Gompertz model, while India follows the logistic pattern. The main contribution of this study is offering a supporting material for telecommunication policymakers and stakeholders to design a sustainable ICT strategy for the SAARC countries.

A Gravity Model Approach towards Pakistan’s Bilateral Trade with SAARC Countries

This research paper attempts to estimate the bilateral trade of Pakistan with SAARC countries using a gravity model of trade. This panel study covers the period from 2003 to 2016. The empirical results are obtained through pooled OLS, fixed‑effects, and random‑effects estimators. On the basis of Hausman test results, the paper concentrates only on the findings of the fixed‑effects model. The empirical findings reveal that the GDPs of both Pakistan and the partner country have a positive impact on bilateral trade. Market size has a negative impact on trade and this is justified on the basis of the absorption effect. Similarly, distance and exchange rate also have a negative correlation with bilateral trade. The study finds that Pakistan has very low trade with India and Afghanistan, despite the common border. A common language has a positive but insignificant impact on Pakistan’s bilateral trade. The Paper also attempts to calculate the trade potential of Pakistan. The findings reveal that Pakistan has high trade potential with all SAARC member countries except the Maldives and Afghanistan.

Gender Inequality: A Comparison of India and Other SAARC Member Countries

Gender Inequality: A Comparison of India and Other SAARC Member Countries

India's agricultural trade relationship with SAARC countries

India ’agricultural trade with SAARC member countries was not very impressive as a percentage of its world agricultural trade. The agricultural exports from India to other SAARC countries increased from $1553.61 million in 2005–06 to $5475.26 million in 2014–15. A similar increase occurred in agricultural imports of India from $634.74 million to $1266.88 million. India's agricultural exports to other SAARC countries were higher as compared to imports, thus the balance of trade was favourable to India except for Afghanistan (2006–15) and Bhutan (2007 and 2008). The compound growth rate of agricultural exports of India with SAARC as a whole came out to be 14.26 per cent per annum at current prices and 7.84 per cent at constant prices which indicated a tremendous increase in agricultural exports to these countries after SAFTA agreement. The agricultural growth in imports at constant prices was negative and non-significant for all SAARC member countries with India except for Afghanistan and Bangladesh which were the major importing countries with respect to agricultural trade. After SAFTA agreement in 2006, no doubt, trade increased in the SAARC region, but lack of proper implementation was observed among SAARC countries. The study suggested that as India's total agricultural trade multiplied more than three-times after the formation of SAFTA in the region, it should play a key role in the implementation of SAFTA.