Russian GDP Research Articles

Comparative Analysis of Oil Production in Russia and Abroad

The modern oil complex of the Russian Federation makes a significant contribution to the formation of a positive trade balance and tax revenues to budgets of all levels. This resource makes up more than 16 % of Russian GDP, a quarter of tax and customs revenues to budgets of all levels, and more than a third of the incoming foreign exchange revenue. The article presents the analysis of Russian companies which currently produce much less oil than west companies, except “Lukoil” company. The main reasons for the decline in production are considered to be the lack of financial resources for investment, the underdevelopment of the Russian export infrastructure, and low domestic demand for the products of the industry. At the same time, lower rates of developing existing reserves in Russia in comparison with the west can provide a much longer duration of their operation. One of the priorities for Russian companies is the availability of large oil reserves. At the same time, this advantage is largely lost due to high taxes and low prices for final products. The main disadvantages of Russian companies are considered to be a high degree of financial vulnerability and low efficiency of production activities in comparison with the leading companies of the west. However, the Russian Federation remains an undisputed world leader in oil production and export. The analytical review characterizes the Russian oil complex as a sector of fuel and energy potential and the contribution of oil production to the country’s economic development, the existing resource potential of both oil fields and their number, and recently discovered oil fields. The paper estimates the cost of oil from leading oil producers and the technological capabilities of extracting oil from hard-to-reach fields and describes the resource potential of OPEC countries, Russia, and the United States. The resulting analytical conclusion is the given options for improving the innovative sphere of Russia to increase the efficiency of oil production and development of hard-to-reach oil fields.

Механизм принятия законодательных решений в РФ как метод экономического регулирования: на основе анализа количественных данных базы LAWSTREAM.RU

Objective: to consider the use of legislative decision-making mechanisms in the Russian Federation as a tool of economic regulation on the basis of quantitative data of LAWSTREAM.RU database and to confirm or refute the hypothesis that the failures in the GDP growth dynamics encourage the state regulator to intensify rulemaking.Methods: abstract-logical method, comparison, correlation analysis.Results: the mechanism of legislative decision-making can and should be considered as a tool for the economic regulation policy implementation. The effectiveness of reforms is determined by the way in which the government, as the regulatory body of the economic system, uses the existing mechanisms of legislative decision-making in the field of economic regulation. The paper analyzes the institutional aspects of economic reforms. The authors compare the quantitative dynamics of the law drafts in the sphere of economic relations submitted to the State Duma and adopted by it, and the dynamics of the Russian GDP growth in 1994-2018. The correlation is shown between the macroeconomic situation and the legislative activity of the President and government in economic sphere; the hypothesis is confirmed about the influence of the GDP growth on the President and government’s legislative activity in the sphere of economy and finance regulation in case of sharply negative GDP values. It is established that the peak of the state regulator’s activity in the regulatory sphere is the system reaction to shock, expressed in a sharp drop in GDP growth.Scientific novelty: the article is the first attempt to compare the quantitative indicators of the adopted law drafts in the sphere of economy regulation and the GDP dynamics.Practical significance: the results obtained by the authors are useful for describing the model of legislative influence of the Russian executive authorities on the economic environment, taking into account the current macroeconomic indicators.

Influence of Expenditures in the Development of the Digital Economy on the Volume of Russia's GDP

The purpose of this work is to assess the effectiveness of achieving planned investment indicators within the framework of the national program «Digital Economy of the Russian Federation» and the adequacy of investments in the digitalization of the economy to form positive dynamics of Russia's GDP. The hypothesis is tested about the presence of influence, along with the indicators of the functioning of traditional sectors of the economy, of indicators of digital sectors of the economy and indicators of investments in digital transformation in Russia. The methodology for such calculation is based on the theory of elasticity, which can be used to analyze the efficiency of resources (investments) in the case of alleged underfunding of a certain economic entity, that took place in the case of the specified program. This technique involves the construction of a Cobb-Douglas production function. The data of Russian statistical compilations in the regional context for the period from 2015 to 2018 were used as an information base for calculating and constructing a production function. Within the adopted specification of the cross-sectional regression model, the parameters of the production function were determined for each year within the specified period. Also, the predicted values ​​of the indicators of the used information base for 2019 and 2020 were determined using the linear regression method, and, proceeding from them, parameters of the production function were determined. Due to the incompatibility of data on the indicator of internal costs for the development of the digital economy in the program «Digital Economy of the Russian Federation» and the statistical indicator of the cost of information and communication technologies, it was necessary to calculate the ratio between these indicators. The solution to this problem showed that these indicators are in good agreement with each other with a difference of only a few percent. The final result of the study is an assessment of GDP losses while maintaining the dynamics of digitalization costs observed in 2015-2018, suggesting continuation of the trend towards the Digital Economy of the Russian Federation program being underfunded in 2019 and 2020.

Estimating Time-Varying Long-Run Growth Rate of Russian GDP in the ARX Model with Oil Prices

The paper estimates the path of trend growth rates for Russian GDP based on an autoregressive model with exogenous variables and with a time-varying parameter of trend growth, which, by assumption, is described by a random walk process. In conditions of a high dependence of the Russian economy on commodity exports, terms of trade are used as a control exogenous variable for GDP dynamics. For the purpose of econometric estimation, the ARX model is presented as an unobserved components model and estimated using the maximum likelihood method with the Kalman filter applied. It is shown that in the first half of the 2000s the trend growth rate was at 4%, which can be interpreted as recovery growth after a transformational recession. The higher growth rates actually achieved during this period are explained by the intensive growth of world oil prices. Later, the potential for recovery growth was exhausted, and after the crisis of 2008 the rates of trend growth were remaining at the level of 2% per year for a long period of time. However, following the 2014 crisis, trend growth rates began to decline steadily, and had reached about 1% per year by the beginning of 2019, which can be interpreted as the impact of sanctions and geopolitical uncertainty on the economic development of the Russian Federation. The results of an econometric analysis of the model on household consumption and investment data also suggest that the trend growth rate is approximately 1% per year at present.

Research on the Impact of International Oil Prices on the Economy of Russia

In the process of Russian economic development, the oil industry is one of the important pillar industries. More than 50% of the total revenue of the Russian government comes from the oil and gas industry. Oil and oil products exports account for about 56.9% of Russia’s total export[1]. So Russia’s economy is inextricably linked to oil prices. Rosneft’s role in budgetary revenue sources is growing. In the development of the world economy, the change of international oil price affects the development of the Russian economy. This paper reviews the relevant theories about the relationship between oil price and Russia’s economic growth. Besides, the short-term and long-term effects of oil price fluctuation on Russian economy are analyzed with Keynes’s income determination theory and “resource Curse” theory[2] respectively. In addition, the granger causality test is used to analyze the relationship between the fluctuation of oil price and the change of Russian GDP. The following conclusions are drawn from the analysis. Firstly, oil price rise is beneficial to Russian economic growth in the short term, but will hinder Russia’s economic long-term development. Secondly, the fluctuation of oil price is the granger cause of the change of Russian GDP. However, the change of Russian GDP is not the granger cause of the fluctuation of oil price.

Analysis of the development of Oil and Gas Industry in present conditions

Purpose of the study. This study examines the state of companies of oil sector based on the analysis of dynamics and relationship between basic financial indicators, characterizing the activities of oil companies; it identifies factors affecting the companies’ efficiency, such as return on sales (ROS) and productivity. The work is based on dynamic, structural, correlation analysis of analytical and statistical information on processes occurring in this area of economic activity.Materials and methods. Statistical data and analytical information on oil sector companies serve as the information base of this study. Statistical methods of information analysis (comparative analysis, analysis of time series, correlation, and regression analysis) represent the methodological base of research.Results. The authors analyzed the development trends of the global and Russian oil and gas sectors. The last two decades have been marked by changes in the global oil market that were caused by fluctuations in the price of oil and oil products and with the rise and fall in the price of Brent crude oil per barrel.The paper considers dynamics of financial indicators of Russian oil companies. An analysis of the data on the revenue of the largest Russian companies in ruble and dollar terms over the last 10 years has revealed a significant difference in the dynamics of these indicators. The authors performed ROS and oil price profitability correlation as well as correlation between the price of oil, the exchange rate and the profitability of oil companies.Conclusion. The oil and gas industry is an essential sector of the economy that heavily promotes to the socio-economic development of our country. Revenues of the oil and gas sector contribute to the Russian GDP and are a major component of the budget. There are two ways to calculate revenue of oil companies – in ruble (dollar terms) and impact of RUB/USD exchange rate. The sharp changes in the exchange rate of the last decade have advanced significant changes in the revenue of Russian oil companies.In this study, the total revenue (in dollar terms) was calculated as the ratio of revenue in rubles to the average annual exchange rate of the corresponding period. In general, the disastrous results of 2015 and 2016 led to a decrease in the average growth rates of dollar and ruble revenue, as well as profit and profitability.The authors performed a correlation analysis of return on sales and oil prices, which revealed an almost total absence of correlation between these indicators. Oil prices and exchange rates have a negligible effect on the profitability of oil companies. An inverse correlation is observed between the RUB/USD pair and the oil price per barrel. It is concluded that the cost of oil and the exchange rate have little effect on the profitability of oil companies.Since the oil and gas complex makes a very significant contribution to the development of the country’s economy, it is advisable to analyze its development trends on a regular basis. Based on the results of the economic and statistical analysis of financial indicators, it is possible to identify the main development directions of the oil and gas industry, evaluate positive and negative processes, and determine further prospects.

Оптимизация геометрических параметров гидровихревого инерционного стратификатора Вентури

The usage of nanosized particles as modifying agents opens new possibilities in the creation of materials with unique properties. The effective qualitative improvement of Russia's GDP structure is based on the recycling of technogenic mineral formations (TMF) and the production of high-tech products. Numerous studies have shown that the efficiency of this process is limited by high requirements to the fractional composition, median size, and dispersion of TMF particles, as well as imperfection of equipment and technology and their classification. The strict classification requirements must be taken into account, when developing separation methods for the dispersion of the median sizes of TMF microparticles under the conditions of the probabilistic distribution of the physical and mechanical parameters of the feed. The studies covered in the article are based on the provision on a significantly greater influence of inertial forces on the trajectory of a hydrodynamically unsteady motion of the dispersed «a microparticle – a drop of liquid» system during the hydro-cyclone separation with respect to the aerodynamic forces of their movement in a fluidized bed. The paper shows that within the range of kinetic energy of the translational motion of liquid droplets, which overcomes the aerodynamic barrier of coagulation of hydrophobic TMF particles, the minimum diameter of absorbed microparticles during hydro-cyclone coagulation depends only on the magnitude of the angular velocity of rotation of the liquid droplets.We obtained the equations for the Euler and Reynolds criteria, their average values, and the relaxation time of liquid droplets with integrated micro and nanoparticles of TMF, depending on their median size during hydro-cyclone separation. The developed mathematical model of inertial hydro-cyclone separation of finely dispersed TMF allows determining the optimal geometric parameters and energy characteristics of the Venturi separator, its aerator, and the position of the receiving tanks.The experimental results confirmed the possibility of classifying finely dispersed wastes of mining and metallurgical production in the range of median sizes (0.5-5)∙10–6 m by fractions with a dispersion of not more than 20 %.

Strategic management of innovation development: insights into a role of economic policy

This article justifies the necessity and inevitability of the innovative development of the Russian economy in the transition to a new technological paradigm. The authors substantiate the determining influence of the innovation potential in Russia's GDP growth against the background of the insolvency of other factors – labor, capital – in giving a powerful impetus to economic growth and development. The paper presents the results of comparative analysis of labor productivity in Russia and in the most economically developed countries. The authors conclude that Russia has the greatest growth potential in the field of scientific research and development. Prognostic values of GDP growth are analyzed in three scenarios – basic, optimistic, and ambitious. The study reveals the key success factors and possible barriers to the creation and development of innovations, providing convincing evidence of their influence on the companies' efficiency. Moreover, the paper provides an expanded understanding of the modern innovation tools and stresses the critical importance of their correct choice in solving strategic tasks of the company's innovative development. The authors analyze the role of strategic target-setting in the scale and speed of innovative development of Russian industry. They stress the urgency of Russia's transition to a new technological paradigm, requiring innovative and technological renewal of the entire economic landscape, making the economy truly innovative.

Macroeconomic Analysis of Russian Economy in 2018

The paper provides a macroeconomic analysis of the Russian economy in 2018 based on standard macroeconomic analysis methods and relying on the results of authors’ own econometric model. It is demonstrated that the main driver of the country’s economic growth was the growing export volume primarily caused by increased export prices, as well as ruble depreciation. However, the rates of Russian economic growth stayed lower than the global economic rates. Production growth, macroeconomic stability, easing monetary policy and country’s conservative fiscal policy enhanced the positive balance of payments and achieved budget surplus. Nevertheless, growth rates stay quite low due to insufficient investment volume and total productivity stagnation. The latter is caused, among other reasons, by lack of foreign investment and poor funding of research and development. Development of the Russian digital economy along with economic reforms could solve these problems. Recent years saw quick growth of Russia’s digital economy, including growing export of ICT products. However, the share of digital economy in Russian GDP is still lower than that of developed countries.

Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment in Russia: Empirical Study

In the present paper the determinants of the inward FDI stock in the Russian economy have been estimated via panel data analysis. The results of the study have confirmed the relevance of basic gravity determinants: the GDP of Russia and the investing countries, and the distances between them. The level of per capita income in the investing country, as well as the mutual trade, has a robust positive effect on the inward FDI stock. This allows one to assert that an increase in trade in goods with countries with growing levels of wealth leads to an increase in stocks of foreign investment in the Russian economy. Changes in the exchange rate, relations with offshore financial centers, restrictions and sanctions imposed on Russia since 2014, and bilateral investment treaties do not have a significant impact on FDI accumulated in the country. The provision that trade in goods has a positive effect on the FDI stock can contribute to further study of FDI round-tripping and Russia’s involvement. The steady dependence revealed at the macroeconomic level shows that, despite the high estimates of the scale of intermediary financial investments, the FDI accumulated in the Russian economy retains the link with real economic activities. At the microeconomic level, it is provided by activities of TNCs and their long-term interest in the economy of invested enterprises, in the growth of their efficiency and competitiveness.

Analyzing reasons for projected long-term growth of real GDP of Russia

Analyzing reasons for projected long-term growth of real GDP of Russia

Approaches to Assessing the Contribution of Digital Economy to Gross Domestic Product of the Russian Federation

The article deals with assessment of digital economy contribution to economy of the Russian Federation. The author reviews the most frequently cited publications providing information about the volume of digital economy in GDP of Russia, as well as methods of this indicator estimation. The review was prepared by publications cited by Russian authors, which include research and analytical reports of the Russian Association of E-Communications, Boston Consulting Group and McKinsey. As a result the conclusion was reached that the absence of a unified concept of digital economy for statistics aims and a method of assessing the contribution of digital economy to GDP could hinder processes of digital transformation, as necessary tools of control and monitoring are not available. Classification principles used today in international statistics form the basis of product differentiation dealing with digital economy. At the same time experts acknowledge insufficient details in initial data for identification and classification of relevant types of products in orientation to national account data. In the future it is necessary on the basis of international organizations and home developments and concepts to work out steps aimed at encouraging presentation of digital economy spheres in the system of national accounts and creation of statistic tools, which could allow us to avoid fragmented study of digital economy.

Decomposition of Economic Growth in the Russian Federation Through 2024

In 2018, the growth rate of GDP in Russia (2.3 percent) represents a record high of per annum economic growth rate since 2012. This year-end result is notably above the estimates offered by a majority of international financial organizations (the IMF, World Bank, the OECD), as well as by Russian banking analysts and experts. The volume of GDP in nominal terms surged above RUB 100 trillion, to RUB 103,626.6 billion (or approximately USD 1,657 billion when recalculated at the annual average RUB-to-USD rate). Growth was also displayed by most of the basic indicators: thus, the industrial production index in 2018 gained 2.9 percent, freight turnover – 2.9 percent, retail trade turnover – 2.6 percent. Special note should be made of the movement pattern of fixed investment: according to preliminary estimates released by Rosstat, its annual growth index amounted to 4.3 percent. Considering the fact that, in 2017, the amount of fixed investment in constant prices increased by 4.8 percent, it can be said that over the period 2017–2018, the investment sphere indeed experienced intense growth; however, the main contribution to that growth was made either by budget-funded investments (the completion of building construction projects in preparation for the World Cup; the construction of the bridge to the Crimea; the Sabetta Airport and Seaport; and infrastructure in the city of Moscow), or investments by state-owned companies (Nord Stream 2 natural gas pipeline; Yamal LNG; etc.)

Wage Flexibility in Russia: Empirical Evidence from Microdata Analysis

The paper discusses the real wage elasticity to unemployment and GDP in Russia. An approach based on panel microdata about earnings of individuals has been applied. This methodology helps to avoid a number of difficulties that are created when aggregated analytical data on the average wage dynamics are used. The study has indicated some conclusions. Firstly, a review of estimations from other countries based on the same methodology is provided. The results confirm the conclusion about higher wage elasticity to unemployment in Russia than in many developed countries. However, the real wage elasticity to GDP in Russia is comparable with the same elasticity in other countries. Secondly, the use of microdata facilitates the evaluation of real wage flexibility for particular groups of workers and for different types of jobs: in other words, the heterogeneity of wage flexibility. As shown by calculations, wage flexibility is higher for young men living in the city and working in the private or informal sector of the economy. Moreover, it was found that wage flexibility of workers who have changed jobs during the year is higher than that of those who have remained with the same employer. Thus, interfirm mobility contributes to high wage flexibility in Russia: during economic growth employees, on average, newly start better paid jobs, whereas during crises they switch to low-paid jobs.

A MODEL OF FUEL AND ENERGY SECTOR CONTRIBUTION TO ECONOMIC GROWTH

The study examined the impact of foreign direct investment (FDI) in the fuel and energy sector and related industries on economic growth in response to the debates on FDI’s impact on economic growth being positive (government officials and policymakers) or negative (the World Bank, some researchers). The hypothesis that a significant relationship is present between the Russian Federation GDP and gross FDI in Fuel and Energy Sector (fuels and non-fuels fossils mining, coke and petrochemicals production, rubber and plastic production, and energy supply) is introduced and validated by using a regression model. The derived model tests changes of regression results patterns of the Russian GDP against FDI in energy-related industries in different periods 1998-2004 and 2010-2017. GDP is assessed in five different measures: current US dollars, international US dollars (purchasing power parity), growth rates of the former and the latter, and physical growth index. It was concluded that, to a greater extent, economic growth is influenced by foreign investment in energy supply and petrochemical production in the both periods. Increased investment in power generation also contributes to economic growth, while other constituents of the sector, including mining, have a statistically insignificant or even retarding effect on economic growth, thus evidencing in favor of the World Bank’s criticism towards FDI. Policy implications of the findings prove the necessity to introduce structural changes intended to redirect capital flows from oil and gas to prevent from economic growth deterioration in the long-term perspective. Keywords : Economic growth; Foreign Direct Investment; Fuel and energy sector JEL Classifications: C3, O4, Q43 DOI: https://doi.org/10.32479/ijeep.7849

Relationship between Oil Price and Macroeconomic Indicators in Russia

One of the most important external factors affecting the exchange rate of the US dollar to the Russian rouble has been the global oil price. Russia, whose economy is mainly associated with oil production, is one of the world’s largest oil suppliers. Therefore, the slightest fluctuations in oil prices can have a significant effect on its economy. The aim of the article is to study the relationship between macroeconomic parameters and oil prices. The objectives of the study are to identify factors having a long-term positive relationship with oil prices based on a mathematical approach, as well as to propose improvements for Russian macroeconomic indicators. The authors use modern mathematical methods of vector autoregression (VAR-model), the Granger method and the Dickey-Fuller test to study the long-term and shortterm relationships between the relevant time series for the period from 2014 to 2016. On this basis, it was calculated that a 1% increase in GDP leads to a strengthening of the national currency by 1.47%. This fact can be explained by the overall growth of the national economy. The Granger test results for the model show that global oil price (and Russian GDP) has the greatest impact on the exchange rate in the short term. The following actions are proposed for improving macroeconomic indicators: stabilisation of foreign economic policy; diversification of exports (although oil revenues can serve as a tool for improving the quality of Russian economic development and public life in general); development of the Russian ‘Urals’ benchmark and increasing its trading volumes on the world market; transition to rubles for settlements of Russian oil and gas; use of a ruble indicator (ruble barrel) of the ‘Urals’ oil price to support the development of Russia’s financial and economic policy.

PROBLEMS AND PROSPECTS OF DEVELOPMENT OF THE OIL EXCHANGE MARKET IN THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION

In the context of speculatively priced Russian oil on the world energy market, the oil exchange market development in the Russian Federation is updated. The purpose of the article was to rationalize conditions ensuring the crude oil market pricing by means of exchange trade development. The main objective of the scientific search was to justify state oil purchase as the main factor in improving the Russian oil exchange market liquidity at the present stage of its development. An optimal level of the ratio of public expenditures for oil exchange purchase to Russia's GDP was determined. The optimal amount of public expenditures for oil exchange purchase for the second quarter of 2018 amounted to 2,384.64 billion rubles. The optimal amount of public expenditures for oil exchange purchase is 89.9 million tons per quarter. State procurement of such oil volumes as of today could ensure an increase in the oil exchange market liquidity. The research results may lay the groundwork for enhancing the state strategy efficiency to improve the pricing of Russia's energy resources. Some practical focus areas substantiated in the article would contribute to the exchange market development at the present stage as a factor in the formation of an actual market price for Russian oil.Keywords: Oil Market, Oil Exchange Market, Participants in Oil Exchange Trade, Oligopolistic Oil Market, Russian Oil IndustryJEL Classifications: G23; L52; O24DOI: https://doi.org/10.32479/ijeep.7378

Improving the Property Taxation in the Russian Federation

In their search for new ways of recharging budget revenues, foreign countries repeatedly implement tax reforms including the area of property taxation.The subject of the researchis the state of property taxation in the Russian Federation and abroad.The purposes of the researchwere to study the trends in property tax reforms in the world and the Russian Federation; systematize the OECD experience in reforming property taxation; compare the Russian innovations in the field of corporate property taxation with the trends existing in OECD countries; assess of the adequacy of corporate property tax reforms carried out in Russia in recent years, and propose property tax innovations with account for advanced foreign experience based on OECD data, foreign and domestic publications. The share of property taxes in the Russian GDP is lower compared to the OECD average although it is higher than in the countries with the lowest value of this indicator, which means that the above shares can be increased as shown by a comprehensive analysis of both taxation practices in foreign countries and the socio-economic situation in Russia.It is concludedthat Russian innovations in the field of property taxation generally conform to the world trends both in terms of tax rates and the tax base formation procedure. The paper outlines the most significant areas of the property tax reform comprising a clear legislative distinction between movable and immovable property, reasoned definition of the real estate cadastral value taking into account the developments in the foreign and domestic economic literature on this issue.

Forecasting Quarterly Russian GDP Growth with Mixed-Frequency Data

This paper presents a pseudo real-time out-of-sample forecast exercise for short-term forecasting and nowcasting quarterly Russian GDP growth with mixed-frequency data. We employ a large set of indicators and study their predictive power for different subperiods within the forecast evaluation period 2008–2016. Four indicators consistently figure in the list of top-performing indicators: the Rosstat key sector economic output index, the OECD composite leading indicator for Russia, household banking deposits, and money supply M2. Aside from these indicators, the top indicators in the 2008–2011 evaluation period are traditional real-sector variables, while those in the 2012–2016 evaluation period largely comprise monetary, banking sector and financial market variables. We also compare the forecast accuracy of three different mixed-frequency forecasting model classes (bridge equations, MIDAS models, and U-MIDAS models). Differences between the performance of model classes are generally small, but for the 2008–2011 period MIDAS models and U-MIDAS models outperform bridge equation models.

How the oil price and other factors of real exchange rate dynamics affect real GDP in Russia

ABSTRACT This article studies the main sources of macroeconomic fluctuations in Russia. We use SVARX approach with long-run restrictions to identify an oil price shock, a nominal shock and two types of productivity shocks. A specific Balassa–Samuelson-type productivity shock differs from a general productivity shock in its ability to affect real exchange rate in the long run. We found that the Balassa–Samuelson-type shocks account for a significant part (about a half of all fluctuations) of real exchange rate movements, which also affected real GDP dynamics. Oil price dynamics was the most important source of real GDP and real exchange rate fluctuations, but our alternative specification says that global demand shocks seem to be responsible for more fluctuations of Russian GDP than oil market–specific shocks.